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Effects of urban development on the flood-flow characteristics of the Walnut Creek Basin, Des Moines Metropolitan area, Iowa

This report deals with the probable impact of urban development on the magnitude and frequency of flooding in the lower reach of the Walnut creek Basin. Stream-modeling techniques, which include complete definition of unit hydroqraphs and precipitation loss-rate criteria, were utilized to evaluate the effects of urban development as measured by percentages of impervious area over the basin. A mathematical model, called HEC-1, was calibrated by using concurrent rainfall-runoff data collected at three gaging stations in the basin. The model parameters were regionalized to allow future users to estimate the model parameters for ungaged areas within the basin. Long-term rainfall data recorded at two nearby stations were employed as basic input to the calibrated model to generate annual peak discharges corresponding to selected degrees of urbanization. Results are presented in tables and graphs, which compare the pre-urban and urban flood flow characteristics of the lower reach of the Walnut Creek basin.

Iowa↗

Simulation of streamflow and estimation of recharge to the Edwards aquifer in the Hondo Creek, Verde Creek, and San Geronimo Creek watersheds, south-central Texas, 1951-2003

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, constructed three watershed models using the Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN (HSPF) to simulate streamflow and estimate recharge to the Edwards aquifer in the Hondo Creek, Verde Creek, and San Geronimo Creek watersheds in south-central Texas. The three models were calibrated and tested with available data collected during 1992–2003. Simulations of streamflow and recharge were done for 1951–2003. The approach to construct the models was to first calibrate the Hondo Creek model (with an hourly time step) using 1992–99 data and test the model using 2000–2003 data. The Hondo Creek model parameters then were applied to the Verde Creek and San Geronimo Creek watersheds to construct the Verde Creek and San Geronimo Creek models. The simulated streamflows for Hondo Creek are considered acceptable. Annual, monthly, and daily simulated streamflows adequately match measured values, but simulated hourly streamflows do not. The accuracy of streamflow simulations for Verde Creek is uncertain. For San Geronimo Creek, the match of measured and simulated annual and monthly streamflows is acceptable (or nearly so); but for daily and hourly streamflows, the calibration is relatively poor. Simulated average annual total streamflow for 1951–2003 to Hondo Creek, Verde Creek, and San Geronimo Creek is 45,400; 32,400; and 11,100 acre-feet, respectively. Simulated average annual streamflow at the respective watershed outlets is 13,000; 16,200; and 6,920 acre-feet. The difference between total streamflow and streamflow at the watershed outlet is streamflow lost to channel infiltration. Estimated average annual Edwards aquifer recharge for Hondo Creek, Verde Creek, and San Geronimo Creek watersheds for 1951–2003 is 37,900 acrefeet (5.04 inches), 26,000 acre-feet (3.36 inches), and 5,940 acre-feet (1.97 inches), respectively. Most of the recharge (about 77 percent for the three watersheds together) occurs as streamflow channel infiltration. Diffuse recharge (direct infiltration of rainfall to the aquifer) accounts for the remaining 23 percent of recharge. For the Hondo Creek watershed, the HSPF recharge estimates for 1992–2003 averaged about 22 percent less than those estimated by the Puente method, a method the U.S. Geological Survey has used to compute annual recharge to the Edwards aquifer since 1978. HSPF recharge estimates for the Verde Creek watershed average about 40 percent less than those estimated by the Puente method.

Texas↗

Hydrology, phosphorus, and suspended solids in five agricultural streams in the Lower Fox River and Green Bay watersheds, Wisconsin, water years 2004-06

A 3-year study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay to characterize water quality in agricultural streams in the Fox/Wolf watershed in northeastern Wisconsin and provide information to assist in the calibration of a watershed model for the area. Streamflow, phosphorus, and suspended solids data were collected between October 1, 2003, and September 30, 2006, in five streams, including Apple Creek, Ashwaubenon Creek, Baird Creek, Duck Creek, and the East River. During this study, total annual precipitation was close to the 30-year normal of 29.12 inches. The 3-year mean streamflow was highest in the East River (113 ft 3 /s), followed by Duck Creek (58.2 ft 3 /s), Apple Creek (26.9 ft 3 /s), Baird Creek (12.8 ft 3 /s), and Ashwaubenon Creek (9.1 ft 3 /s). On a yield basis, during these three years, the East River had the highest flow (0.78 ft 3 /s/mi 2 ), followed by Baird Creek (0.61 ft 3 /s/mi 2 ), Apple Creek (0.59 ft 3 /s/mi 2 ), Duck Creek (0.54 ft 3 /s/mi 2 ), and Ashwaubenon Creek (0.46 ft 3 /s/mi 2 ). The overall median total suspended solids (TSS) concentration was highest in Baird Creek (73.5 mg/L), followed by Apple and Ashwaubenon Creeks (65 mg/L), East River (40 mg/L), and Duck Creek (30 mg/L). The median total phosphorus (TP) concentration was highest in Ashwaubenon Creek (0.60 mg/L), followed by Baird Creek (0.47 mg/L), Apple Creek (0.37 mg/L), East River (0.26 mg/L), and Duck Creek (0.22 mg/L). The average annual TSS yields ranged from 111 tons/mi 2 in Apple Creek to 45 tons/mi2 in Duck Creek. All five watersheds yielded more TSS than the median value (32.4 tons/mi 2 ) from previous studies in the Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains (SWTP) ecoregion. The average annual TP yields ranged from 663 lbs/mi 2 in Baird Creek to 382 lbs/mi 2 in Duck Creek. All five watersheds yielded more TP than the median value from previous studies in the SWTP ecoregion, and the Baird Creek watershed yielded more TP than the statewide median of 650 lbs/mi 2 from previous studies.Overall, Duck Creek had the lowest median and volumetric weighted concentrations and mean yield of TSS and TP. The same pattern was true for dissolved phosphorus (DP), except the volumetrically weighted concentration was lowest in the East River. In contrast, Ashwaubenon, Baird, and Apple Creeks had greater median and volumetrically weighted concentrations and mean yields of TSS, TP, DP than Duck Creek and the East River. Water quality in Duck Creek and East River were distinctly different from Ashwaubenon, Baird, and Apple Creeks. Loads from individual runoff events for all of these streams were important to the total annual mass transport of the constituents. On average, about 20 percent of the annual TSS loads and about 17 percent of the TP loads were transported in 1-day events in each stream.

Wisconsin↗

Streamflow record extension for selected streams in the Susitna River Basin, Alaska

Daily streamflow records for water years 1950–2010 in the Susitna River Basin range in length from 4 to 57 years, and many are distributed within that period in a way that might not adequately represent long-term streamflow conditions. Streamflow in the basin is affected by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a multi-decadal climate pattern that shifted from a cool phase to a warm phase in 1976. Records for many streamgages in the basin fell mostly within one phase of the PDO, such that monthly and annual statistics from observed records might not reflect streamflow conditions over a longer period. Correlations between daily discharge values sufficed for extending streamflow records at 11 of the 14 streamgages in the basin on the basis of relatively long-term records for one or more of the streamgages within the basin, or one outside the basin, that were defined as index stations. Streamflow at the index stations was hydrologically responsive to glacier melt and snowmelt, and correlated well with flow from similar high-elevation, glaciated basins, but flow in low-elevation basins without glaciers could not be correlated to flow at any of the index stations. Kendall-Theil Robust Line multi-segment regression equations developed for one or more index stations were used to extend daily discharge values to the full 61-year period for all 11 streamgages. Monthly and annual statistics prepared for the extended records show shifts in timing of breakup and freeze-up and magnitude of snowmelt peaks largely predicted by the PDO phase.

Alaska↗

Sources of metal loads to the Alamosa River and estimation of seasonal and annual metal loads for the Alamosa River basin, Colorado, 1995-97

Metal contamination in the upper Alamosa River Basin has occurred for decades from the Summitville Mine site, from other smaller mines, and from natural, metal-enriched acidic drainage in the basin. In 1995, the need to quantify contamination from various source areas in the basin and to quantify the spatial, seasonal, and annual metal loads in the basin was identified. Data collection occurred from 1995 through 1997 at numerous sites to address data gaps. Metal loads were calculated and the percentages of metal load contributions from tributaries to three risk exposure areas were determined. Additionally, a modified time-interval method was used to estimate seasonal and annual metal loads in the Alamosa River and Wightman Fork. Sources of dissolved and total-recoverable aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc loads were determined for Exposure Areas 3a, 3b, and 3c. Alum Creek is the predominant contributor of aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc loads to Exposure Area 3a. In general, Wightman Fork was the predominant source of metals to Exposure Area 3b, particularly during the snowmelt and summer-flow periods. During the base-flow period, however, aluminum and iron loads from Exposure Area 3a were the dominant source of these metals to Exposure Area 3b. Jasper and Burnt Creeks generally contributed less than 10 percent of the metal loads to Exposure Area 3b. On a few occasions, however, Jasper and Burnt Creeks contributed a substantial percentage of the loads to the Alamosa River. The metal loads calculated for Exposure Area 3c result from upstream sources; the primary upstream sources are Wightman Fork, Alum Creek, and Iron Creek. Tributaries in Exposure Area 3c did not contribute substantially to the metal load in the Alamosa River. In many instances, the percentage of dissolved and/or total-recoverable metal load contribution from a tributary or the combined percentage of metal load contribution was greater than 100 percent of the metal load at the nearest downstream site on the Alamosa River. These data indicate that metal partitioning and metal deposition from the water column to the streambed may be occurring in Exposure Areas 3a, 3b, and 3c. Metals that are deposited to the streambed probably are resuspended and transported downstream during high streamflow periods such as during snowmelt runoff and rainfall runoff. Seasonal and annual dissolved and totalrecoverable aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc loads> for 1995?97 were estimated for Exposure Areas 1, 2, 3a, 3b, and 3c. During 1995?97, many tons of metals were transported annually through each exposure area. Generally, the largest estimated annual totalrecoverable metal mass for most metals was in 1995. The smallest estimated annual total-recoverable metal mass was in 1996, which also had the smallest annual streamflow. In 1995 and 1997, more than 60 percent of the annual total-recoverable metal loads generally was transported through each exposure area during the snowmelt period. A comparison of the estimated storm load at each site to the corresponding annual load indicated that storms contribute less than 2 percent of the annual load at any site and about 5 to 20 percent of the load during the summer-flow period.

Colorado↗

Simulation of ground-water flow and land subsidence in the Antelope Valley ground-water basin, California

Antelope Valley, California, is a topographically closed basin in the western part of the Mojave Desert, about 50 miles northeast of Los Angeles. The Antelope Valley ground-water basin is about 940 square miles and is separated from the northern part of Antelope Valley by faults and low-lying hills. Prior to 1972, ground water provided more than 90 percent of the total water supply in the valley; since 1972, it has provided between 50 and 90 percent. Most ground-water pumping in the valley occurs in the Antelope Valley ground-water basin, which includes the rapidly growing cities of Lancaster and Palmdale. Ground-water-level declines of more than 200 feet in some parts of the ground-water basin have resulted in an increase in pumping lifts, reduced well efficiency, and land subsidence of more than 6 feet in some areas. Future urban growth and limits on the supply of imported water may continue to increase reliance on ground water. To better understand the ground-water flow system and to develop a tool to aid in effectively managing the water resources, a numerical model of ground-water flow and land subsidence in the Antelope Valley ground-water basin was developed using old and new geohydrologic information. The ground-water flow system consists of three aquifers: the upper, middle, and lower aquifers. The aquifers, which were identified on the basis of the hydrologic properties, age, and depth of the unconsolidated deposits, consist of gravel, sand, silt, and clay alluvial deposits and clay and silty clay lacustrine deposits. Prior to ground-water development in the valley, recharge was primarily the infiltration of runoff from the surrounding mountains. Ground water flowed from the recharge areas to discharge areas around the playas where it discharged either from the aquifer system as evapotranspiration or from springs. Partial barriers to horizontal ground-water flow, such as faults, have been identified in the ground-water basin. Water-level declines owing to ground-water development have eliminated the natural sources of discharge, and pumping for agricultural and urban uses have become the primary source of discharge from the ground-water system. Infiltration of return flows from agricultural irrigation has become an important source of recharge to the aquifer system. The ground-water flow model of the basin was discretized horizontally into a grid of 43 rows and 60 columns of square cells 1 mile on a side, and vertically into three layers representing the upper, middle, and lower aquifers. Faults that were thought to act as horizontal-flow barriers were simulated in the model. The model was calibrated to simulate steady-state conditions, represented by 1915 water levels and transient-state conditions during 1915-95 using water-level and subsidence data. Initial estimates of the aquifer-system properties and stresses were obtained from a previously published numerical model of the Antelope Valley ground-water basin; estimates also were obtained from recently collected hydrologic data and from results of simulations of ground-water flow and land subsidence models of the Edwards Air Force Base area. Some of these initial estimates were modified during model calibration. Ground-water pumpage for agriculture was estimated on the basis of irrigated crop acreage and crop consumptive-use data. Pumpage for public supply, which is metered, was compiled and entered into a database used for this study. Estimated annual pumpage peaked at 395,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) in 1952 and then declined because of declining agricultural production. Recharge from irrigation-return flows was estimated to be 30 percent of agricultural pumpage; the irrigation-return flows were simulated as recharge to the regional water table 10 years following application at land surface. The annual quantity of natural recharge initially was based on estimates from previous studies. During model calibration, natural recharge was reduced from the initial

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Nutrient input from the Loxahatchee River Environmental Control District sewage-treatment plant to the Loxahatchee River Estuary, southeastern Florida

Two test discharges of treated-sewage effluent were made to the Loxahatchee River in February and September 1981 from the ENCON sewage-treatment plant to document nutrient loading and downstream transport of the effluent to the estuary under maximum daily discharge allowable by law (4 million gallons per day). Concentrations of total nitrogen in the effluent exceeded background concentrations by as much as 7 times during the February test, while concentrations of total phosphorus exceeded background concentrations by as much as 112 times during the September test. The effluent was transported downstream to the estuary in less than 24 hours. Discharge of treated sewage effluent to the river-estuary system in the 1981 water year accounted for less than 0.5 percent of the total nitrogen and 8 percent of the total phosphorus discharged from the major tributaries to the estuary. If maximum discharges of effluent (4 million gallons per day) were sustained throughout the year, annual nitrogen loading from the effluent would account for 5 to 18 percent of the total nitrogen input by the major tributaries to the estuary. With maximum discharges of effluent, annual phosphorus loading would exceed the amount of phosphorus input by the major tributaries to the estuary by 54 to 167 percent. (USGS)

Florida↗

Hydrologic investigations and data-collection network in strippable coal-resource areas in northwestern New Mexico

This report presents hydrologic investigations and data collections conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in the strippable coal areas of northwestern New Mexico. Streamflow, ground-water, and quality-of-water data were collected to provide information about baseline or prevailing hydrologic conditions. A network of hydrologic data-collection sites in the strippable coal areas of the Fruitland Formation was designed to meet the need of detailed investigations, including site-specific studies, and to provide hydrologic data in support of the expanding mining activity. The network consists of 34 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (32 included water-quality sampling), 20 miscellaneous water quality of streamflow stations, 12 annual maximum discharge stations, 27 observation wells completed in strata associated with the strippable coal seams, and 24 observation wells completed in channel alluvium downstream from strippable coal areas. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Source-water susceptibility assessment in Texas—Approach and methodology

Public water systems provide potable water for the public's use. The Safe Drinking Water Act amendments of 1996 required States to prepare a source-water susceptibility assessment (SWSA) for each public water system (PWS). States were required to determine the source of water for each PWS, the origin of any contaminant of concern (COC) monitored or to be monitored, and the susceptibility of the public water system to COC exposure, to protect public water supplies from contamination. In Texas, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) was responsible for preparing SWSAs for the more than 6,000 public water systems, representing more than 18,000 surface-water intakes or groundwater wells. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) worked in cooperation with TCEQ to develop the Source Water Assessment Program (SWAP) approach and methodology. Texas' SWAP meets all requirements of the Safe Drinking Water Act and ultimately provides the TCEQ with a comprehensive tool for protection of public water systems from contamination by up to 247 individual COCs. TCEQ staff identified both the list of contaminants to be assessed and contaminant threshold values (THR) to be applied. COCs were chosen because they were regulated contaminants, were expected to become regulated contaminants in the near future, or were unregulated but thought to represent long-term health concerns. THRs were based on maximum contaminant levels from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s National Primary Drinking Water Regulations. For reporting purposes, COCs were grouped into seven contaminant groups: inorganic compounds, volatile organic compounds, synthetic organic compounds, radiochemicals, disinfection byproducts, microbial organisms, and physical properties. Expanding on the TCEQ's definition of susceptibility, subject-matter expert working groups formulated the SWSA approach based on assumptions that natural processes and human activities contribute COCs in quantities that vary in space and time; that increased levels of COC-producing activities within a source area may increase susceptibility to COC exposure; and that natural and manmade conditions within the source area may increase, decrease, or have no observable effect on susceptibility to COC exposure. Incorporating these assumptions, eight SWSA components were defined: identification, delineation, intrinsic susceptibility, point- and nonpoint-source susceptibility, contaminant occurrence, area-of-primary influence, and summary components. Spatial datasets were prepared to represent approximately 170 attributes or indicators used in the assessment process. These primarily were static datasets (approximately 46 gigabytes (GB) in size). Selected datasets such as PWS surface-water-intake or groundwater-well locations and potential source of contamination (PSOC) locations were updated weekly. Completed assessments were archived, and that database is approximately 10 GB in size. SWSA components currently (2011) are implemented in the Source Water Assessment Program-Decision Support System (SWAP-DSS) computer software, specifically developed to produce SWSAs. On execution of the software, the components work to identify the source of water for the well or intake, assess intrinsic susceptibility of the water- supply source, assess susceptibility to contamination with COCs from point and nonpoint sources, identify any previous detections of COCs from existing water-quality databases, and summarize the results. Each water-supply source's susceptibility is assessed, source results are weighted by source capacity (when a PWS has multiple sources), and results are combined into a single SWSA for the PWS.'SWSA reports are generated using the software; during 2003, more than 6,000 reports were provided to PWS operators and the public. The ability to produce detailed or summary reports for individual sources, and detailed or summary reports for a PWS, by COC or COC group was a unique capability of SWAP-DSS. In 2004, the TCEQ began a rotating schedule for SWSA wherein one-third of PWSs statewide would be assessed annually, or sooner if protection-program activities deemed it necessary, and that schedule has continued to the present. Cooperative efforts by the TCEQ and the USGS for SWAP software maintenance and enhancements ended in 2011 with the TCEQ assuming responsibility for all tasks.

Texas↗

Aquifer-test results, direction of ground-water flow, and 1984-90 annual ground-water pumpage for irrigation, lower Big Lost River Valley, Idaho

The study area (see index map of Idaho), part of the Big Lost River drainage basin, is at the northern side of the eastern Snake River Plain. The lower Big Lost River Valley extends from the confluence of Antelope Creek and the Big Lost River to about 4 mi south of Arco and encompasses about 145 mi 2 (see map showing water-level contours). The study area is about 18 mi long and, at its narrowest, 4 mi wide. Arco, Butte City, and Moore, with populations of 1,016, 59, and 190, respectively, in 1990, are the only incorporated towns. The entire study area, except the extreme northwestern part, is in Butte City. The study area boundary is where alluvium and colluvium pinch out and abut against the White Knob Mountains (chiefly undifferentiated sedimentary rock with lesser amounts of volcanic rock) on the west and the Lost River Range (chiefly sedimentary rock) on the east. Gravel and sand in the valley fill compose the main aquifer. The southern boundary is approximately where Big Lost River valley fill intercalates with or abuts against basalt of the Snake River Group. Spring ground-water levels and flow in the Big Lost River depend primarily on temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation within the entire drainage basin. Periods of abundant water supply and water shortages are, therefore, related to the amount of annual precipitation. Surface reservoir capacity in the valley (Mackay Reservoir, about 20 mi northwest of Moore) is only 20 percent of the average annual flow of the Big Lost River (Crosthwaite and others, 1970, p. 3). Stored surface water is generally unavailable for carryover from years of abundant water supply to help relieve drought conditions in subsequent years. Many farmers have drilled irrigation wells to supplement surface-water supplies and to increase irrigated acreage. Average annual flow of the Big Lost River below Mackay Reservoir near Mackay (gaging station 13127000, not shown) in water years 1905, 1913-14, and 1920-90 was about 224,600 acre-ft; average annual flow of the Big Lost River near Arco (gaging station 13132500; see map showing water-level contours) in water years 1947-61, 1967-80, and 1983-90 was about 79,000 acre-ft (Harenberg and others, 1991, p. 254-255). Moore Canal and East Side Ditch divert water from the Big Lost River at the Moore Diversion, 3 mi north of Moore (see map showing water-level contours) and supply water for irrigation near the margins of the valley. When water supply is average or greater, water in the Big Lost River flows through the study area and onto the Snake River Plain, where it evaporates or infiltrates into the Snake River Plain aquifer. When water supply is below average, water in the Big Lost River commonly does not reach Arco; rather, it is diverted for irrigation in the interior of the valley, evaporates, or infiltrates to the valley-fill aquifer. This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, to collect hydrologic data needed to help address water-supply problems in the Big Lost River Valley. Work involved (1) field inventory of 81 wells, including 46 irrigation wells; (2) measurement of water levels in 154 wells in March 1991; (3) estimation of annual ground-water pumpage for irrigation from 1984 through 1990; and (4) analysis of results of an aquifer test conducted southwest of Moore. All data obtained during this study may be inspected at the U.S. Geological Survey, Idaho District office, Boise.

Idaho↗

National Water-Quality Assessment Program, western Lake Michigan drainages: Summaries of liaison committee meeting, Green Bay, Wisconsin, March 28-29, 1995

The Western Lake Michigan Drainages (WMIC) study unit, under investigation since 1991, drains 20,000 square miles (mi2) in eastern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan (fig. 1). The major water-quality issues in the WMIC study unit are: (1) nonpoint-source contamination of surface and ground water by agricultural chemicals, (2) contamination in bottom sediments of rivers and harbors by toxic substances, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB's), other synthetic organic compounds, and trace elements, (3) nutrient enrichment of rivers and lakes resulting from nonpoint- and point-source discharges, and (4) acidification and mercury contamination of lakes in poorly buffered watersheds in the northwestern part of the study unit. A study-unit liaison committee, which includes representatives of Federal, State, university, and private and citizen organizations, has met annually since 1991 to review plans and results and guide the investigators toward policy-relevant efforts. The results of research conducted in the WMIC study unit by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and non-USGS researchers were presented at the liaison committee meeting held in Green Bay, Wis., on March 28-29, 1995. This report contains summaries of the oral presentations given at the WMIC 1995 liaison committee meeting.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Regional rainfall-runoff relations for simulation of streamflow for watersheds in Lake County, Illinois

Rainfall and streamflow data collected in Lake County, Ill., from March 1990 through September 1993 were used to (1) calibrate a rainfall-runoff model for an area encompassing three watersheds (individual areas of 17.2, 35.7, and 37.0 mi 2 (square miles) and (2) verify the regional model parameter set obtained from the calibration by applying the parameter set to rainfall-runoff models for an additional small (6.3 mi 2 ) watershed and a large (59.6 mi 2 ) watershed. In addition, rainfall and streamflow data collected from April 1991 through September 1993 were used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model for three single land-use watersheds (38.2-305 acres), called hydrologic response units (HRU's). Significant differences were found between the best parameters used in the HRU models and in the larger watershed models. The main channels in the HRU's are intermittent streams; thus, the parameters in the HRU models were selected such that a fluctuating water table could be simulated; runoff from the larger watersheds is not as sensitive to the effects of a fluctuating water table. Classification of land cover into two pervious subareas (forest and grass) and one impervious subarea (including parking lots, streets, and rooftops, among others) was sufficient to simulate the rainfall-runoff relations for all watersheds accurately. The model parameters presented in this report, which were refined through regional calibration and verified for watersheds not considered in the calibration, allow simulation of runoff in watersheds in Lake County, Ill., with approximately 93-percent accuracy in the total water balance, an average absolute error in the annual- flow estimates of 10.9 percent (and an error rarely exceeding 25 percent for annual flow), and monthly water balances with correlation coefficients of 93 percent and coefficients of model-fit efficiency of 86 percent. The models closely reproduced the partial-duration series of runoff and storm-runoff frequencies for the modeled watersheds.

Illinois↗

Peak streamflow trends in Illinois and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This report characterizes changes in peak streamflow in Illinois and the relation of these changes to climatic variability, and provides a foundation for future studies that can address nonstationarity in peak-flow frequency analysis in Illinois. Records of annual peak and daily streamflow at streamgages and gridded monthly climatic data (observed and modeled) were examined across four trend periods (100 years, water years 1921–2020; 75 years, 1946–2020; 50 years, 1971–2020; 30 years 1991–2020) for trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing conditions. Median peak streamflows generally exhibit upward trends across the State for the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in northern and southern Illinois for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. The medians of the trend magnitudes (normalized by median peak streamflow) range from a 23-percent increase during the 30-year trend period to a 41-percent increase during the 100-year trend period. Streamgages with trends in peak streamflow often also have change points, or abrupt changes, in streamflow magnitude. More than two-thirds of streamgages at the 100- and 75-year trend periods exhibit a trend and change point in median peak streamflow in the same direction. Temporally, clusters of change points are observed in the late 1960s through early 1980s for the 100- and 75-year trend periods and around 2006 for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. Trends in the 90-percent quantile of peak streamflow, which correspond to the 10-percent exceedance probability often used for the design of drainage structures, increased about the same amount as the 50-percent quantile peak streamflows, except at the 100-year trend period, where the 50-percent quantile peak flow increased more for almost all streamgages. The frequency of high flows has also increased in Illinois, with increases in peaks-over-threshold observed across much of the State for the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in northern and southern Illinois for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. Upward trends in observed temperature and observed annual precipitation dominate in all trend periods, with clusters of likely upward trends observed in northern and southern Illinois at the 50- and 30-year trend periods. As expected in response to increasing temperature, the modeled proportion of precipitation falling as snow has largely decreased in the study basins across the State, and modeled potential evapotranspiration has increased. Upward trends in modeled annual runoff, which in this report incorporates only the effects of climatic variation, are observed in the same geographic areas where there are increases in observed annual precipitation. The widespread upward trends in the magnitude of median peak streamflows and the frequency with which high flows occur across the State at the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in northern and southern Illinois at the 50- and 30-year trend periods appear to be driven largely by increases in precipitation based on spatial patterns of these changes and statistical relations between streamflow and climate metrics. Other effects not considered in this report, like urbanization, may be important drivers for certain streamgages in the State. The prevalence of nonstationarity in peak streamflow in Illinois has important implications for peak-flow frequency analysis. Average annual precipitation and the occurrence of extreme precipitation events are expected to increase across the State. If precipitation continues to increase as expected, peak-flow frequency estimates based on older records may no longer represent the hydrologic regime of today, and methods for nonstationary peak-flow frequency analysis may be needed.

Illinois↗

Simulation of runoff and recharge and estimation of constituent loads in runoff, Edwards aquifer recharge zone (outcrop) and catchment area, Bexar County, Texas, 1997-2000

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a watershed model (Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN) to simulate runoff and recharge and to estimate constituent loads in surface-water runoff in the Edwards aquifer recharge zone (outcrop) and catchment area in Bexar County, Texas. Rainfall and runoff data collected during 1970–98 from four gaged basins in the outcrop and catchment area were used to calibrate and test the model. The calibration parameters were applied in simulations of the four calibration basins and six ungaged basins that compose the study area to obtain runoff and recharge volumes for 4 years, 1997–2000. In 1997, simulated runoff from the study area was 5.62 inches. Simulated recharge in the study area was 7.85 inches (20 percent of rainfall). In 1998, simulated runoff was 11.05 inches; simulated recharge was 10.99 inches (25 percent of rainfall). In 1999, simulated runoff was 0.66 inch; simulated recharge was 3.03 inches (19 percent of rainfall). In 2000, simulated runoff was 5.29 inches; simulated recharge was 7.19 inches (21 percent of rainfall). During 1997– 2000, direct infiltration of rainfall accounted for about 56 percent of the total Edwards aquifer recharge in Bexar County. Streamflow losses contributed about 37 percent of the recharge; flood impoundment contributed 7 percent. The simulated runoff volumes were used with event-mean-concentration data from basins in the study area and from other Bexar County basins to compute constituent loads and yields for various land uses. Annual loads for suspended solids, dissolved solids, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, and total lead were consistently largest from undeveloped land and smallest from commercial land or transportation corridors. Annual loads and yields varied with rainfall, with the maximum loads produced in the wettest year (1998) and the minimum loads produced in the driest year (1999).

Texas↗

Methods to estimate annual mean spring discharge to the Snake River between Milner Dam and King Hill, Idaho

Many individual springs and groups of springs discharge water from volcanic rocks that form the north canyon wall of the Snake River between Milner Dam and King Hill. Previous estimates of annual mean discharge from these springs have been used to understand the hydrology of the eastern part of the Snake River Plain. Four methods that were used in previous studies or developed to estimate annual mean discharge since 1902 were (1) water-budget analysis of the Snake River; (2) correlation of water-budget estimates with discharge from 10 index springs; (3) determination of the combined discharge from individual springs or groups of springs by using annual discharge measurements of 8 springs, gaging-station records of 4 springs and 3 sites on the Malad River, and regression equations developed from 5 of the measured springs; and (4) a single regression equation that correlates gaging-station records of 2 springs with historical water-budget estimates. Comparisons made among the four methods of estimating annual mean spring discharges from 1951 to 1959 and 1963 to 1980 indicated that differences were about equivalent to a measurement error of 2 to 3 percent. The method that best demonstrates the response of annual mean spring discharge to changes in ground-water recharge and discharge is method 3, which combines the measurements and regression estimates of discharge from individual springs.

Idaho↗

The use of continuous water-quality time-series data to compute nutrient loadings for selected Iowa streams, 2008–17

In support of nutrient reduction efforts, nitrate (as nitrate plus nitrite) and phosphorus loads and yields were computed for selected streams in Iowa based on continuously monitored sensor data for 2008–17 and 2014–17, respectively. Sample data were used to assess nitrate sensor bias and to create phosphorus-turbidity surrogate models. Where needed, nitrate loads were corrected for site-specific sensor bias, which was determined to be as high as 9.25 percent. Nitrate loads presented in this report using continuous (generally 15-minute interval) data were on average 4 percent less, but as much as 38 percent less, than annual loads computed from daily mean nitrate concentrations not corrected for sensor bias. Streamflow-based phosphorus models had poorer fit (adjusted coefficient of determination values less than 0.75) than turbidity-based models (adjusted coefficient of determination approximately 0.9). However, alternate models based on streamflow were used to obtain a more complete annual phosphorus load despite seasonal and fragmentary sensor data. Mean annual nitrate yields for 18 selected sites (96 site-years) ranged from 1.68 to 164 pounds per square mile per day (lb/mi 2 /d), compared to 19.4 lb/mi 2 /d average statewide yield needed to achieve the nitrate-reduction goal. Mean annual phosphorus yields for selected sites on the Maquoketa River, South Raccoon River, and West Nishnabotna River range from 1.57 to 7.19 lb/mi 2 /d, compared to 1.06 lb/mi 2 /d average statewide yield needed to achieve the phosphorus-reduction goal.

Iowa↗

Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 2021 annual report

The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) monitors volcanic and hydrothermal activity associated with the Yellowstone magmatic system, carries out research into magmatic processes occurring beneath Yellowstone Caldera, and issues timely warnings and guidance related to potential future geologic hazards. This report summarizes the activities and findings of YVO during the year 2021, focusing on the Yellowstone volcanic system. Highlights of YVO research and related activities during 2021 include deployments of seismometers in Norris Geyser Basin and Upper Geyser Basin to investigate geyser plumbing systems, semipermanent Global Positioning System array deployment from May to October, geological studies of post-glacial hydrothermal activity, refining the ages of Yellowstone volcanic units and updating existing maps of geologic deposits, installation of a new continuous gas monitoring station near Mud Volcano, sampling of thermal waters around Yellowstone National Park to monitor water chemistry over space and time, and assessment of thermal output based on satellite imagery and chloride flux in rivers. Steamboat Geyser, in Norris Geyser Basin, continued the pattern of frequent eruptions that began in 2018 with 20 water eruptions in 2021—a significant decrease from the 48 eruptions that occurred in both 2019 and 2020. Total seismicity—2,773 located earthquakes—was elevated compared to the 1,722 earthquakes located in 2020, but not significantly outside the historical average of about 1,500–2,500 earthquakes per year. Overall subsidence of the caldera floor, ongoing since late 2015 or early 2016, continued at rates of a few centimeters (1–2 inches) per year, whereas deformation in the Norris Geyser Basin area was below detection levels. Satellite deformation measurements indicate the possibility of slight uplift amounting to about 1 centimeter (less than 1 inch) along the north caldera rim, south of Norris Geyser Basin. The deformation is similar to that which occurred in the late 1990s. Throughout 2021, the aviation color code for Yellowstone Caldera remained at “green” and the volcano alert level remained at “normal.”

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

2013 volcanic activity in Alaska: summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, volcanic unrest or suspected unrest, and seismic events at 18 volcanic centers in Alaska during 2013. Beginning with the 2013 AVO Summary of Events, the annual description of the AVO seismograph network and activity, once a stand-alone publication, is now part of this report. Because of this change, the annual summary now contains an expanded description of seismic activity at Alaskan volcanoes. Eruptions occurred at three volcanic centers in 2013: Pavlof Volcano in May and June, Mount Veniaminof Volcano in June through December, and Cleveland Volcano throughout the year. None of these three eruptive events resulted in 24-hour staffing at AVO facilities in Anchorage or Fairbanks.

Alaska↗