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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Identification of Global Priorities for New Mountain Protected and Conserved Areas

Mountain ecosystems are extremely diverse and fragile. They include astonishing biodiversity in terms of number of taxa and endemicity, and globally provide the most diverse range of ecosystem services. The world’s system of protected and conserved areas includes many outstanding areas within the earth’s mountainous landscape: about 19% of mountain areas are protected or conserved, globally. Furthermore, approximately 90% of the most-strongly-protected conservation estate occurs in mountains. Nevertheless, significant mountain areas are not adequately protected, and many mountain ranges are completely unprotected. Of over 6000 Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) in mountains worldwide, 40.4% are entirely unprotected. As the world conservation movement advocates to expand the global coverage of terrestrial protected areas over the next decade toward 30%, identifying priorities for new mountain protected and conserved areas will be most efficacious if it takes a strategic approach to ensure areas of highest value and most in need of protection are identified. This paper introduces an iterative six-step decision support tool for identifying and prioritizing candidate areas for conserving inadequately protected mountain ecosystems, species, and habitats. The tool begins with quantitative analyses of the adequacy of protection of mountain KBAs, world terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity hotspots, and red-listed species. It then guides regional teams through qualitative assessments of other values to develop lists of priority areas to give heightened consideration for protection or conservation. The tool is framed on the notion that any of the more than 6000 mountain KBAs can be allocated into one of nine categories: four that identify inadequately protected areas prioritised for heightened consideration, two for which no further action is required unless circumstances change, and three not requiring further action due to being deemed adequately protected.

Final Report↗
USGS2019

Berea Sandstone petroleum system

Since 2011, production of sweet high gravity oil from the Upper Devonian Berea Sandstone in northeastern Kentucky has caused the region to become the leading oil producer in the state. Remarkably, Berea oil is being produced at depths of 2,200 ft or less and in an area in which the prospective source rocks—the overlying Mississippian Sunbury Shale and underlying Devonian Shale—are interpreted to be immature for oil production. Further downdip, the Berea appears to produce primarily gas in the oil window. The economic viability of Berea production is also a function of reservoir porosity and permeability.

Kentucky↗
USGS2019

Modeling long-term effects of fuel treatments on fuel loads and fire regimes in the Great Basin

The principal motivation for this study is that sagebrush-steppe ecosystems are undergoing significant state changes, and land managers are challenged with optimizing their resources for both short- and long-term use. Yet, limited knowledge is available regarding how the sagebrush-steppe will respond to environmental changes related to precipitation and temperature regimes, and disturbance such as fire. Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding on how fuels reduction and other fuel management activities will impact these ecosystems over the long-term. We addressed these challenges by adapting and testing a vegetation dynamics model, the Ecosystem Demography v2.2 model (EDv2.2), for the sagebrush-steppe. Vegetation dynamics models can provide estimations of ecosystem productivity in their natural and disturbance states, and thus serve as a tool to understand and predict potential changes in various processes and properties of vegetation communities. Yet, there is no vegetation dynamics model that is well-developed for the sagebrush-steppe, and thus significant effort is needed to test EDv2.2 for its application. As part of our efforts to develop the EDv2.2 model into a useful tool for the sagebrush-steppe, we developed a sagebrush plant functional type (PFT) as part of this study, and then performed sensitivity analyses, model calibration, and finally model evaluation. Furthermore, we developed several model scenarios under natural (undisturbed) and disturbed (fire) environments. We compared our model outputs with ground-based data (field and eddy covariance) and remote sensing observations. The results of our project include a sagebrush PFT that can be used in both future EDv2.2 modeling efforts and other vegetation dynamic models. Our results from the model sensitivity analysis indicate that specific leaf area (SLA), stomatal slope (STO_S), cuticular conductance (CUT_C), and carboxylase rate constant (VM0) are sensitive parameters to vegetation productivity in the model (based on gross primary production, GPP), and future modeling efforts will benefit from both lab and field studies of these parameters and sensitivity analyses. Through calibration, we found that the EDv2.2 model estimates of GPP were modeled well at our lowest elevation field site in Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW), which is dominated by Wyoming big sagebrush. On the contrary, we found poorer results at higher elevation site shrub sites. These sites are characterized by either low sagebrush or mountain big sagebrush, and have more forb cover than the low elevation site. In this project we also implemented the fire model in EDv2.2 to explore how shrub and C3 grasses respond to fire by analyzing post-fire GPP. We ran both point and regional model runs with fire introduced. In most fire scenarios, fire substantially reduced shrub GPP and it took several decades for shrub GPP to return to pre-fire conditions. Grass GPP responded more quickly in post-fire conditions. While these processes are representative of what other studies have found, significant efforts to improve the fire processes in EDv2.2 are needed. For example, nuances associated with the fire subroutine in the model (running periodic fire events versus instantaneous fires and fire intensity) will need to be expanded. Another significant contribution to our knowledge gap is that additional PFTs to represent the sagebrush-steppe (e.g. annual grasses such cheatgrass) are needed for EDv2.2. Regardless, this project made significant advances in PFT development and model testing. Moreover, the EDv2.2 provides a useful framework to conceptualize vegetation dynamics, project future conditions, and consider fire as a disturbance. With additional parameterizations, PFTs, and fire routines, EDv2.2 will evolve as a tool for which to better understand future ecosystem dynamics of the sagebrush-steppe.

Idaho↗
USGS2020

Impact of unburned remnant sagebrush versus outplants on post-fire landscape rehabilitation

Nearly half of the vast sagebrush steppe in the western United states has lost many or nearly all native plant species, largely due to the interaction of invasive species and increased wildfire. Re-establishing sagebrush, a keystone component of these ecosystems, has become a management focus in recent decades using aerial broadcast seeding or limited plantings. One promising avenue for improving the planning and assessment of post-fire seedings involves the spatial patchiness of burn patterns and in the recovery of sagebrush after fire. Unburned remnant or post-fire planted islands (or patches) of sagebrush could be valuable seed sources for species recovery in surrounding burned areas. Information on how much spatial expansion of unburned remnant patches is expected over time could help in the planning of post-fire treatments. However, previous research has indicated that sagebrush seeds do not disperse far, which would imply that unburned or created patches do not contribute much to sagebrush reestablishment effects. Our objective was to determine whether remnant/unburned sagebrush patches contribute to sagebrush recovery in the surrounding burned areas. We quantified seed rain and seedling establishment in relation to patches of sagebrush that were either unburned remnant or had been planted in the first year or so after wildfire. We conducted a seed trapping experiment across 6 different wildfires during two winters to determine seed transport distances. We paired this with a seedling recruitment study on the Soda wildfire where we mapped distances between remnants and seedlings. We found that although a few seeds did travel much farther than previously recorded (maximum of 26 m), seed dispersal was highly variable across sites and patches, and only a small portion of seeds dispersed farther than a few meters from sagebrush patches. Our seedling recruitment assessment confirmed a limited contribution of remnants to seedling recruitment. Specifically, a microsite was only marginally more likely to have a sagebrush seedling even if there was >50 neighbors within a 40 m radius. There were no differences in the quantity of seeds dispersed from remnant versus actively managed patches. Overall, we found that isolated sagebrush patches are unlikely to significantly contribute to landscape regeneration of sagebrush on large fires and that aerial seeding is likely needed to overcome seed limitations. We did detect substantial variation in site-level sagebrush seed production among years, including one site that did not produce any seed in one year. Variability in seed production in space and time appeared to be a potentially more important variable potentially affecting sagebrush seed availability than dispersal distances and is a topic that merits more investigation.

Idaho, Oregon↗
USGS2021

Vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for projected changes in water quality and quantity for protected areas in the upper Midwest

Climate change and the extreme weather associated with it can be a major challenge to natural resource managers charged with the protection, restoration, recovery, and management of wetlands and wildlife habitats. Forecasting the potential impacts of climate changes will be important for decision-makers and land managers seeking to minimize impacts to habitats, infrastructure, and wildlife populations and prepare for the future. In collaboration with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) managers, we developed a climate change vulnerability assessment to spatially evaluate climate vulnerabilities across the Midwest region. To create the vulnerability assessment, we convened resource managers and scientists working across the region to determine the components and scope of the vulnerability assessment. The vulnerability assessment was watershed-based and composed of 15 indicators of climate change and five indicators that reflect the capacity of a watershed to buffer against the effects of climate change. The indicators were selected by FWS managers to have broad applicability across systems and programs in the FWS. To facilitate usability, we created an online application that allows users to generate customizable vulnerability assessments. We then integrated the assessment into a process for engaging in climate change adaptation thinking as a precursor to formal planning, implementation, and monitoring of adaptation actions. The process we designed focused on understanding the components of the system, assessing climate change vulnerabilities, creating and describing possible climate change scenarios, and identifying impacts and adaptation options for each scenario. We piloted this process in a virtual workshop setting with FWS managers and biologists on the topic of managed wetland systems. This work is currently being used by the FWS to better understand regional vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies and to advance integration of climate science into formal planning processes.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2021

Identifying sources of contaminants in urban stormwater and evaluation of their removal efficacy across a continuum of urban best management practices

Precipitation events in urban areas often result in stormwater runoff containing a diverse array of chemical contaminants. Although many traditional contaminants, such as nutrients, heavy metals, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons have been studied extensively, only recently has evidence emerged showing that trace organic compounds (TrOCs), including pharmaceuticals, personal care products and pesticides are frequently found in stormwater runoff. As there is little existing information about the sources of TrOCs in urban stormwater or their removal efficacy across a range of stormwater treatment options, we conducted a study to address these knowledge gaps and to characterize the potential contribution of TrOCs to groundwater resources from stormwater infiltration practices, based on several synoptic measurements. The current study allowed us to enhance an existing effort to assess TrOC presence and toxicity in stormwater runoff and treatment pond outflow by addressing questions related to TrOC sources to stormwater and TrOC transport to groundwaters. Analysis of eDNA confirms multiple sources of TrOCs to stormwater including human sewage, dog waste, and feces from waterfowl. It is likely that the presence of some TrOCs detected in stormwater are the result of direct, untreated sewage inputs to stormwater from either human (i.e., leaking sewer infrastructure) or pet waste (washed from sidewalks into storm drains). The seasonal detection of avian eDNA is noteworthy as it highlights seasonality and patterns of migration patterns as contributing factors to stormwater contamination. In contrast to human and pet waste, which likely enters stormwater ponds via the stormwater conveyance system, avian feces may enter ponds either through stormwater runoff or through direct inputs by waterfowl stopping-over temporarily at stormwater ponds. Stormwater ponds had little effect in reducing TrOCs as determined by comparative inflow and outflow analysis. Our results also indicate that overall few TrOCs were present in receiving groundwater adjacent to underground infiltration basins, compared to inflow. However, some contaminants were present at relatively high concentrations compared to stormwater flowing into the basins. This is particularly true for pesticides and their degradants. Fewer TrOCs were detected in interstitial water collected near stormwater ponds compared to inflow and outflow. The presence and concentrations of TrOCs in outflow from ponds was generally similar to or higher than what was observed in inflow. The data collected as part of this study can be used to guide future research or monitoring in an effort to better understand TrOC fate and transport in the environment via stormwater BMPs. Specifically, more work is needed to track parcels of water as they flow through BMPs to better quantify transport and degradation of TrOCs, monitor flow into and out of ponds for mass balance calculations, and conduct tracer tests to better quantify the amount of water that monitoring wells are intercepting from underground infiltration basins. These results have been shared in multiple presentations and in meetings with high school teachers to develop age-appropriate curriculum to highlight the role of individuals in reducing and preventing stormwater contamination. The ongoing pandemic hindered some of these efforts (cancelled conferences; suspended MN Water Roundtable meetings; pre-occupation with teachers moving materials online), however, as dissemination activities become more common in the near future, we will continue to educate stakeholders and educators about the root causes and effects of urban stormwater contamination.

Minnesota↗
USGS2018

Migration trends for king and common eiders and yellow-billed loons past Point Barrow in a rapidly changing environment

Most of the king ( Somateria spectabilis ) and common eiders ( S. mollissima v-nigra ) nesting in northern Alaska and northwestern Canada migrate past Point Barrow, Alaska, during the spring and fall migration. Yellow-billed loons ( Gavia adamsii ) also migrate past Point Barrow and are a species of international conservation concern. Spring migration counts of eiders have been conducted approximately every ten years at Point Barrow since 1976, and indicated that both eider species experienced population declines of approximately 50% between 1976 and 1996, and that the declines had stabilized by 2004. Population estimates derived from migration counts have not been previously estimated for yellow-billed loons. We conducted spring counts of eiders and loons in 2015 and 2016 to obtain population estimates to compare with those from 1994, 1995, 2003, and 2004 in order to evaluate long-term and current trends. We estimated (95% confidence intervals) that 796,419 (304,011) king and 96,775 (39,913) common eiders passed Point Barrow in 2015, and 322,381 (145,833) king and 130,390 (34,548) common eiders passed Point Barrow in 2016. Both and king and common eider population estimates increased from 1994 through 2016, however, the increase over time was not significant (F < 5.07, P > 0.087, df = 1). Our population estimates for king eiders were very different between the two years of this study, possibly due to a very short and intense migration peak in 2016, resulting in a population count that was biased low because sampling periods did not adequately capture the peak of migration. The numbers of common eiders were similar between the two years, as well as for the 12 years since the previous count. Photo analysis of flocks indicated that observer counts were on average 4% lower than photo counts (paired t-test; |t| = 3.26, df = 297, P < 0.001) for flocks less than 1400 individuals (observer count). Estimates of yellow-billed loon populations were very variable and are biased low as numbers of loons passing Pt. Barrow were still high when our counts ended in late May. It is important that counts continue to be conducted for these species of conservation and subsistence importance, but that techniques be refined to reduce bias and variability, and to find solutions to the increasing difficulty of conducting a count from the shore-fast ice in spring.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

The impact of future climate on wetland habitat in a critical migratory waterfowl corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region

Depressional wetlands are extremely sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation, so understanding how wetland inundation dynamics respond to changes in climate is essential for describing potential effects on wildlife breeding habitat. Millions of depressional basins make up the largest wetland complex in North America known as the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). The wetland ecosystems that have formed in these basins provide important migratory-bird breeding habitat. The southeast portion of the U.S. PPR in Minnesota and Iowa has faced some of the greatest challenges in wetland conservation. Many existing prairie-pothole wetlands are small (<1 ha) and shallow (<2 m) and are typically not inundated with surface water year-round. Our goal with this project is to increase the efficacy of mapping tools used by management agencies to predict future changes in water levels in the PPR. We accomplish this goal by improving the link between existing data (about wetland water characteristics) and existing tools (mapping products). Our results successfully validated (2009-2021) the current mapping tool (a wetland hydrology model) used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to manage 22 wetlands in Minnesota. We were able to hindcast wetland water levels to 1984 and assess the accuracy of a satellite-derived surface water product and forecast water levels through 2099 using a suite of modeled climate data. This newly refined link between monitoring data and remote sensing tools will increase understanding and prediction for other wetlands beyond our study sites and through the Minnesota and Iowa portions of the PPR. Through conference presentations, publications, and development of an interactive climate change dashboard we are now working with managers to determine how we can help incorporate these predicted changes to waterfowl breeding habitat into their future management, acquisition, and restoration strategy.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, Nebra↗
USGS2021

Informing future condition scenario planning for habitat specialists of the imperiled pine rockland ecosystem of South Florida

This project evaluated habitat conditions for two species found in the imperiled pine rockland ecosystem—the Rim Rock Crowned Snake ( Tantilla oolitica ) and the Key Ring-Necked Snake ( Diadophis punctatus acricus ). The Rim Rock Crowned Snake historically occurred in eastern Miami-Dade County (hereafter, mainland) as well as throughout the Florida Keys, whereas the Key Ring-Necked Snake occurs only in lower Florida Keys (Enge et al. 2004; Mays and Enge 2016). Both species are very elusive, small (< 20 cm in length) and primarily fossorial. Pine rockland habitat is rapidly disappearing in South Florida, with < 3 percent of its original extent remaining. Saltwater intrusion from hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), and human development pose the greatest threats to the longevity of this ecosystem which, in turn, places species that are endemic to this unique habitat at risk of extinction. The Rim Rock Crowned Snake and the Key Ringed-Necked Snake are being considered for listing by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). To aid the agency’s decision, it must be able to forecast species’ responses to potential future environmental conditions, as well as to different conservation and management actions. Yet, the information needed to complete these forecasts—such as population trends, life history traits, habitat use, and future land use and climate conditions—is often lacking for most rare species. This is especially problematic for assessments of species resiliency to changes in climate and land use. When these types of data are lacking, information on habitat quality can be used to help determine how a species will respond to change. First, this project gathered current and historical records for both species from various sources such as museum specimens, inventories, and other personal account. Then, we identified potential future changes in habitat that could result from different management actions, such as habitat acquisition or restoration, and environmental conditions, such as changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms and rates of SLR. Researchers then explored the potential impacts of these habitat condition changes on the Rim Rock Crowned Snake and Key Ring-Necked Snake. This information can be used by the USFWS to help make decisions about the need to protect these species under the Endangered Species Act and could inform the conservation, management, and recovery of other at-risk species found in the pine rockland ecosystem. This work supports the Secretary of Interior’s priority to create a conservation stewardship legacy by using science to identify best practices to manage land and water resource and adapt to changes in the environment.

Florida↗
USGS2022

Understanding impacts of sea-level rise and land management on critical coastal marsh habitat

Coastal wetlands in the Louisiana Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) experience some of the highest rates of relative sea-level rise (SLR) in the world, leading to elevated surface water salinity and prolonged flooding. Elevated salinity causes a shift toward more salt-tolerant vegetation communities, associated with changes in ecosystem function and services. As sea level continues to rise, even salt-tolerant plant communities succumb to impacts of excessive flooding through submergence and conversion to open water. To better characterize the impacts of SLR on coastal wetland health and sustainability, we focused on two key landscape transitions in this project: 1) freshwater marsh transition to saltwater marsh, and 2) saltwater marsh transition to open water. We investigated these transitions using data with greater spatial and temporal resolution than previous studies in this region, allowing us to identify the mechanisms underlying widely observed landscape changes.

Louisiana↗
USGS2023

A pilot biodiversity inventory and monitoring protocol in support of coastal adaptation projects in tidal and nearshore subtidal habitats of Boston Harbor Islands

The Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area (BOHA) is at high risk to the impacts of sealevel rise (SLR) and erosion from coastal storms. In June 2021, the National Trust for Historic Preservation listed the islands as one of America’s 11 Most Endangered Historic Places due to climate change. BOHA partners have been working to find climate adaptive solutions to protect and sustain critical ecological and cultural resources on the islands. A range of coastal adaptation efforts are currently under consideration including increased shoreline armoring and nature-based adaptation solutions. Any action taken in the coastal zone will require an assessment of environmental and ecological communities that could potentially be impacted by disturbance caused by restoration or adaptation projects. The primary goals of the initial phase of this project were to: 1) synthesize occurrence and distribution records of biodiversity living in and using mixed coarse substrate habitats of the intertidal zone of the Boston Harbor Islands; and 2) identify and compile potential methods to develop a standard and repeatable monitoring protocol to track changes (natural or anthropogenic) in intertidal biodiversity over time and across locations; and 3) conduct preliminary site scoping of target islands to identify locations for collecting new baseline data. A biodiversity inventory list was compiled, showing a total of 451 unique species were observed in BOHA between 1861-2020. Of this list, 55 species (invertebrates: 47; algae: 8) were considered nonindigenous species; a watchlist was also developed to help BOHA partners identify potential future invaders that could colonize and impact intertidal communities due to ongoing climate change or disturbance events. Native species observed in BOHA were evaluated using existing conservation frameworks and climate vulnerability information to prioritize species at greatest risk from anthropogenic and environmental stressors for future actions. Lastly, site scoping activities during 2021 identified three types of sites for future intertidal monitoring initiatives: (1) sites with relatively high biodiversity and foundational species, (2) erosional sites near cultural areas of importance to NPS, and (3) sites with generic (common across islands) biodiversity. Overall results are anticipated to help the NPS and BOHA partners identify a suite of species and sites for future monitoring given anticipated adaptation projects and ongoing changes due to SLR, coastal storms and other stressors.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2022

The humane capture, handling, and disposition of migratory birds

The purpose of this document is to provide guidance on the humane capture, handling, and care of migratory birds trapped for any purpose. It is intended for wildlife managers, regulatory personnel, and individuals that handle or authorize handling of live-captured migratory birds. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service – Migratory Bird Program (USFWS), the U.S. Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL), and U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal Plant Health Inspection Service Wildlife Services (WS) collaboratively prepared this document.

Final Report↗
USGS2023

Evaluate propagation efforts and determine dispersal patterns for Quadrula fragosa from tagged, artificially infested host fish (Ictalurus punctatus) in the St. Croix National Scenic Riverway (SACN)

The St. Croix National Scenic Riverway (SACN) has been the site of propagation and restoration efforts for two federally endangered unionid mussels: Higgins’ Eye, Lampsilis higginsii and Winged Mapleleaf (WML), Quadrula fragosa. Since about 2000, government agencies have collaboratively developed techniques to successfully propagate Higgins’ Eye and reintroduce the captive-reared subadult mussels into rehabilitated habitats in the upper Mississippi River Basin and several tributaries, including the SACN. However, propagation efforts for the WML have had limited success from 2003 to present. The population of WML in the SACN has high value because it is physically isolated and genetically distinct from four southern populations, and it is the only known self-sustaining population within the upper Mississippi River. Unionids have a complex reproductive cycle that includes a parasitic larval stage (glochidia) that requires species-specific fish hosts. WML are one of the few species that are fall, short-term (~6 weeks) brooders—brooding begins at end of August. In the SACN, Channel Catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ) are the only known host for WML and glochidia are assumed to overwinter on their host fish and detach the following spring. Research has shown that holding hatchery reared channel catfish that are infested with WML glochidia in cages, either in situ or in a hatchery, over winter has been a challenge due to high fish mortality; rearing juveniles after transformation has also resulted in high mortality rates and juvenile loss (Wege et al. 2007). The importance of the overwintering parasitic period and the overall health of the host fish for successful transformation of juvenile WML is unknown, but these key criteria could play an important role in successful propagation efforts. This research has three objectives: (1) compile historic data from >14 years of Q. fragosa propagation efforts into a searchable database to identify potential knowledge gaps that could be limiting its success, (2) explore in situ and ex situ propagation techniques to optimize production of Q. fragosa juveniles, and (3) characterize the movement pattern of Channel Catfish that are artificially inoculated with the SACN strain of Q. fragosa to identify potential juvenile release survey locations in future years.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2023

Advancing best practices for the analysis of the vulnerability of military installations in the Pacific Basin to coastal flooding under a changing climate – RC-2644

Coastal flooding takes many forms, ranging from major flooding associated with storms to minor flooding associated with exceptionally high tides and other oceanic and atmospheric phenomena on storm-free days. A major societal challenge is to understand and predict how flood magnitude and frequency will manifest at particular places and times, now and in the future. Of particular interest here is how coastal flooding will impact Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In response to this need, this work aims to advance the practical application of statistical and other analytical techniques that can be used to assess the exposure, and ultimately the vulnerability, of built and natural environments to the impacts of coastal flooding. A variety of methods are described and applied to assess exposure. This includes tide gauge station-based diagnosis and prognosis of patterns and trends of Still Water Level, techniques to characterize the expression of ‘lesser extremes’ (e.g., sub-annual to subdecadal event probabilities), and region-wide analysis that improves upon results obtained from conventional single-tide gauge analyses. A novel hybrid statistical and dynamical modeling approach is applied to the analysis of Total Water Levels, necessary for exposure assessment along shorelines exposed to wave action. The hybrid exposure assessment modeling approach is incorporated into a broader mission-based protocol for the assessment of resilience to coastal flooding at the installation level. Demonstrated via an exemplar assessment, which takes into account functional (lost day) as well as financial impacts (lost dollars), the protocol meets the demand for an actionable characterization of how DoD installations will be affected by coastal flooding and improves DoD’s ability to make informed decisions about how to adapt to its effects. The methods described, evaluated, and applied here, including innovative approaches and proof-of-concept products developed through this work, are incorporated into and considered within an analytical framework that serves as guidance as to their relative merits with respect to coastal flood exposure assessment in various circumstances and settings, and illustrates best practices. This will provide engineers, scientists and other practitioners with an enhanced capability to generate information that can be used to support area-wide assessment related to climate adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction as well as site-specific analysis related to design and maintenance of facilities and infrastructure. While the focus is on a select set of DoD sites in the Pacific Basin, the results have broad applicability nationally as well as globally.

Final Report↗
USGS2023

Sacramento River nutrient change study

The Sacramento River Nutrient Change Study (SRiNCS) was developed with input from multiple stakeholders in the Delta Regional Monitoring Program, as well as the State Water Contractors. We tracked the effects of changes in nutrient loading resulting from a short-term wastewater hold at the Sacramento River Wastewater Treatment Plant (SRWTP). In the summer of 2019, scheduled wastewater effluent holds occurred during the Effluent Valve Replacement (EVR) project, part of the EchoWater Project upgrade at the SRWTP. During an EVR hold in early September 2019, no treated effluent entered the Sacramento River for 48 hours, creating a parcel of “without-wastewater” river water approximately 20 miles (32 km) long. We observed the magnitudes and impacts of short-term changes in nutrient loading in water with wastewater (WW+, September 10) and without wastewater (WW-, September 11 and 12) in the Sacramento River and three downstream channels: Georgiana Slough, the North Fork Mokelumne River, and the South Fork Mokelumne River

California↗
USGS2024

The impact of future changes in climate on breeding waterfowl pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region

Millions of small (< 10 ha) waterbodies embedded in grassland and agroecosystems in midcontinental North America provide breeding habitat to an estimated 50–80% of North America’s migratory ducks. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to conserve and enhance upland and wetland habitats for breeding ducks by prioritizing locations predicted to have high densities of breeding pairs under average precipitation conditions. An implicit assumption of this approach is that the distribution of breeding habitat remains relatively static. Climate change is an identified risk to this strategy. To assess this assumption and plan for potential forthcoming conditions, we estimated changes in potential breeding duck pairs under different climate scenarios by combining results of 1) a mechanistic hydrology model that simulates ecosystem processes for a subset of wetlands distributed across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region (USPPR); 2) four downscaled climate model projections at mid- and late-century time horizons; and 3) U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service multi-decadal datasets and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models. We conducted virtual and in-person informational sessions with partners to inform them on the best practices of using downscaled global circulation models and approaches for climate scenario planning. This close coordination led to a joint presentation at a monthly North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center seminar. We are also co-developing simulated wetland- waterfowl responses under different climate futures for wetlands. Information from these robust predictions of waterfowl habitat and settling patterns in this region provides land-management agencies insights in prioritizing current conservation actions given uncertainty. In addition, understanding how many breeding pairs the USPPR might support in coming decades will likely influence overall breeding population sizes and sustainable harvest objectives across North America.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗
USGS2023

Improving the Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool to support regional climate adaptation

An online climate vulnerability assessment dashboard was developed in 2021 through collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to support regional climate adaptation efforts. The dashboard included 15 climate change impact metrics (five each from three categories: hydrology, precipitation, and temperature) and five metrics representing each watershed's capacity to adapt to changing conditions. Users could then adjust relative weights of each metric to generate vulnerability scores. The metrics included in the dashboard were identified by FWS for their programs but have broad relevance, making the dashboard useful to a wide range of stakeholders. For this project we had two primary goals: (1) update the online dashboard to better communicate the variability that is inherent in climate change projections, and (2) develop a use case example using the dashboard to collaboratively assess vulnerability of a resource of concern at a workshop with resource managers. For objective 2, we selected prairie-obligate butterflies (POBs), which are dependent on, and often restricted to, native prairie habitat. The extent of native prairie has been greatly reduced over the last two centuries resulting in a patchwork of isolated and often small tracts of land. For many POBs, declines and extirpations have been observed in recent decades. Although the causes are not always known, hypotheses include overuse of management tools (e.g., too frequent burning or overgrazing), lack of dispersal opportunities, or extreme weather events. With more extreme weather events anticipated in the future along with other changes in climate, it is important to better understand the vulnerability of POBs to design effective adaptation strategies. While research on extreme weather, climate change, and adaptation is ongoing for some prairie-obligate species, this workshop sought to take a broad perspective using POBs as the focal taxonomic group across eight U.S. States in the Midwest During the workshop we discussed weather and climate-related influences on butterfly communities and assessed climate change vulnerability using the Watershed-based Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/CC_Vulnerability/). We produced maps that quantify the regional vulnerability of POBs across 360 watersheds for two future emissions scenarios. The information developed during the workshop could help in regional planning for climate change adaptation and to identify avenues for research and collaboration for POBs in the Midwest.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2024

Understanding and forecasting potential recruitment of Lake Michigan fishes by modeling growth and survival of larval stages with coupled climate, biophysical, and bioenergetics models

Individual adult fish can produce huge numbers of small offspring, but most die in the first weeks of life. Environmental changes that lead to even small changes in early life survival can have a disproportionate impact on the number of fish that survive and ultimately support fisheries. Lake Michigan supports valuable recreational and commercial fisheries that can fluctuate with how well fish survive in early life. Statistical models have revealed linkages between survival and climate characteristics, such as water temperature, but the exact mechanisms remain unclear and how future climate will affect the survival of young fish is highly uncertain. We integrated a series of models to investigate how climate variability may explain historical variation in the survival of young alewife and yellow perch, two fish populations that support key fisheries either directly or indirectly, while also projecting their future survival in the mid-21st century under different scenarios informed by consultation with fishery managers. Our model results revealed how spring and summer water temperatures in Lake Michigan can affect the environment in which young alewife and yellow perch grow and survive. Specifically, in years when lake warming is rapid, young fish are more likely to be transported from their natal, productive, nearshore environments to cooler and less productive offshore environments, unless adults also spawn earlier in these warm years. Furthermore, model predictions of prey abundance for young fish in the mid-21st century indicate less favorable conditions for growth and survival compared to predictions based solely on warming temperatures. With completion of the final products in the coming year, including predicted growth and survival of young fish under different future scenarios, fishery managers will have more information to share with stakeholders regarding how expectations may need to be modified regarding alewife and yellow perch productivity.

Lake Michigan↗