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Benefits and limitations of using decision analytic tools to assess uncertainty and prioritize Landscape Conservation Cooperative information needs

The Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of partnerships throughout North America that are tasked with integrating science and management to support more effective delivery of conservation at a landscape scale. In order to achieve this integration, some LCCs have adopted the approach of providing their partners with better scientific information in an effort to facilitate more effective and coordinated conservation decisions. Taking this approach has led many LCCs to begin funding research to provide the information for improved decision making. To ensure that funding goes to research projects with the highest likelihood of leading to more integrated broad scale conservation, some LCCs have also developed approaches for prioritizing which information needs will be of most benefit to their partnerships. We describe two case studies in which decision analytic tools were used to quantitatively assess the relative importance of information for decisions made by partners in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. The results of the case studies point toward a few valuable lessons in terms of using these tools with LCCs. Decision analytic tools tend to help shift focus away from research oriented discussions and toward discussions about how information is used in making better decisions. However, many technical experts do not have enough knowledge about decision making contexts to fully inform the latter type of discussion. When assessed in the right decision context, however, decision analyses can point out where uncertainties actually affect optimal decisions and where they do not. This helps technical experts understand that not all research is valuable in improving decision making. But perhaps most importantly, our results suggest that decision analytic tools may be more useful for LCCs as way of developing integrated objectives for coordinating partner decisions across the landscape, rather than simply ranking research priorities.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

Expert-informed habitat suitability analysis for at-risk species assessment and conservation planning

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is responsible for reviewing the biological status of hundreds of species to determine federal status designations under the Endangered Species Act. The longleaf pine Pinus palustris ecological system supports many priority at-risk species designated for review, including five species of herpetofauna: gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus , southern hognose snake Heterodon simus , Florida pine snake Pituophis melanoleucus mugitus , gopher frog Lithobates ( Rana ) capito , and striped newt Notophthalmus perstriatus . To inform status decisions and conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models to 1) identify habitat features that best predict species presence and 2) estimate the amount and distribution of suitable habitat across each species' range under current conditions. We incorporated expert judgment from federal, state, and other partners to capture variation in ecological settings across species' ranges, prioritize predictor variables to test in models, mitigate data limitations by informing the selection of pseudoabsence points, qualitatively evaluate model estimates, and improve the likelihood that experts will trust and use model predictions for conservation. Soil characteristics, land cover, and fire interval strongly influenced habitat suitability for all species. Suitable habitat was distributed on known species strongholds, as well as private lands without known species records. Between 4.7% (gopher frog) and 14.6% (gopher tortoise) of the area in a species' range was classified as suitable habitat, and between 28.1% (southern hognose snake) and 47.5% (gopher frog) of suitable habitat was located in patches larger than 1 km 2 (100 ha) on publicly owned lands. By overlaying predictions for each species, we identified areas of suitable habitat for multiple species on protected and unprotected lands. These results have direct applications to management and conservation planning: partners can tailor site-level management based on attributes associated with high habitat suitability for species of concern; allocate survey effort in areas with suitable habitat but no known species records; and identify priority areas for management, land acquisitions, or other strategies based on the distribution of species records, suitable habitat, and land protection status. These results can aid regional partners in implementing effective conservation strategies and inform status designation decisions of the USFWS.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

Prioritizing imperiled native aquatic species for conservation propagation

Native aquatic species are in decline, and hatcheries can play an important role in stemming these losses until larger ecological issues are addressed. However, as more federal and state agencies face budget uncertainty and the number of imperiled species increases, it is necessary to develop a tool to prioritize species for conservation propagation. Our objective was to create prioritized lists of aquatic species that may benefit from conservation propagation for five states in the United States. Biologists developed an influence diagram and provided information for multiple attributes affecting prevalence of species. The influence diagram and information for each species was used in a Bayesian belief network to generate a score to prioritize propagation of a species and the feasibility of propagation. When all taxa were ranked together within a state, mussels, amphibians, and a crustacean were included among fishes in the top species that may benefit from propagation. We recognize that propagation is one tool for conservation of imperiled species and that additional factors will need to be addressed to ensure species persistence. Nevertheless, we contend our quantitative approach provides a useful framework for prioritizing conservation propagation.

Colorado, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah↗

Species recovery and recolonization of past habitats: Lessons for science and conservation from sea otters in estuaries

Recovering species are often limited to much smaller areas than they historically occupied. Conservation planning for the recovering species is often based on this limited range, which may simply be an artifact of where the surviving population persisted. Southern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) were hunted nearly to extinction but recovered from a small remnant population on a remote stretch of the California outer coast, where most of their recovery has occurred. However, studies of recently-recolonized estuaries have revealed that estuaries can provide southern sea otters with high quality habitats featuring shallow waters, high production and ample food, limited predators, and protected haul-out opportunities. Moreover, sea otters can have strong effects on estuarine ecosystems, fostering seagrass resilience through their consumption of invertebrate prey. Using a combination of literature reviews, population modeling, and prey surveys we explored the former estuarine habitats outside the current southern sea otter range to determine if these estuarine habitats can support healthy sea otter populations. We found the majority of studies and conservation efforts have focused on populations in exposed, rocky coastal habitats. Yet historical evidence indicates that sea otters were also formerly ubiquitous in estuaries. Our habitat-specific population growth model for California’s largest estuary—San Francisco Bay—determined that it alone can support about 6,600 sea otters, more than double the 2018 California population. Prey surveys in estuaries currently with (Elkhorn Slough and Morro Bay) and without (San Francisco Bay and Drakes Estero) sea otters indicated that the availability of prey, especially crabs, is sufficient to support healthy sea otter populations. Combining historical evidence with our results, we show that conservation practitioners could consider former estuarine habitats as targets for sea otter and ecosystem restoration. This study reveals the importance of understanding how recovering species interact with all the ecosystems they historically occupied, both for improved conservation of the recovering species and for successful restoration of ecosystem functions and processes.

California↗

Planning for bird conservation: a tale of two models

Planning for bird conservation has become increasingly reliant on remote sensing, geographical information systems, and, especially, models used to predict the occurrence of bird species as well as their density and demographics. We address the role of such tools by contrasting two models used in bird conservation. One, the Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos) productivity model, is very detailed, mechanistic, and based on an enormous body of research. The Mallard model has been extensively used with success to guide management efforts for Mallards and certain other species of ducks. The other model, the concept of Bird Conservation Areas, is more simple, less mechanistic, and less well-grounded in research. This concept proposes that large patches of suitable habitat in a proper landscape will be adequate to maintain populations of birds. The Bird Conservation Area concept recently has been evaluated in the northern tallgrass prairie, where its fundamental assumptions have been found not to hold consistently. We argue that a more comprehensive understanding of the biology of individual species, and how they respond to habitat features, will be essential before we can use remotely sensed information and geographic information system products with confidence.

General Technical Report↗

Making connections for bird conservation: linking states, provinces & territories to important wintering and breeding grounds

To effectively conserve migratory landbirds, we need to be involved in conservation beyond our political borders. This has been a central tenet of Partners in Flight (PIF) since the initiative began in 1990 with a focus on Nearctic-Neotropical migrants. Implementation of this concept has also been fundamental to the success of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (e.g., NAWMP 2004). Actions by individual states, provinces and territories are key to the success of PIF efforts at the continental scale, and great progress has been made in recent years though various initiatives. Currently, U.S. state Wildlife Action Plans are outlining a vast array of actions to benefit priority species. However, it is also very important to take action in regions that support these same species at the other end of their migratory movements, to ensure effective protection year-round (Rappole et al. 1983, Webster and Marra 2005, Elliott et al. 2005). For instance, conservation action is needed on the wintering grounds for many birds that breed in Canada and the U.S. but spend a large portion of their annual cycle in Mexico, the West Indies, Central and/or South America. In this document we use maps to summarize migratory connections between individual U.S. states, Canadian provinces & territories and the regions that support the same birds at the other end of migration. The maps give a general picture of where birds go, providing a starting point for targeting action. With this information in hand, decision-makers can explore partnerships and mechanism that would help further conservation action outside their bordersa?|

Partners in Flight Technical Series↗

The relevance of the Mediterranean Region to colonial waterbird conservation

The Mediterranean Sea is the largest partially enclosed sea in the world and provides habitat to more than 100 species of waterbirds from the Palearctic-North African-Middle Eastern regions. Even though the Mediterranean suffers from pollution, has little tidal influence, and is oligotrophic, more than half of the western Palearctic populations of numerous waterfowl species winter in the region. Thirty-three species of colonial waterbirds breed along the 46,000 km Mediterranean coastline with nine species considered threatened or endangered, mostly because of wetland loss and degradation. The long history of human activity and scientific investigations in the region has taught some valuable lessons. In the area of colonial waterbird biology and conservation, we have learned important lessons about the value of long-term monitoring and research on selected populations. From marking studies of Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus) and Little Egrets (Egretta garzetta) results have been used to derive useful information about metapopulation dynamics. Involvement of both African and European biologists allowed year-round Studies of these species that yielded valuable spin-offs for training in avian and wetland conservation. We have also learned the value of man-made wetlands as feeding and nesting sites for some colonial waterbirds. Careful evaluations of the habitat quality of different types of wetlands are required, as in contaminant levels such as lead shot and pesticides. Wetland conservationists have also learned from some instructive mistakes. Dam construction and agricultural incentive programs sponsored by the European Community, the World Bank, and others from the past have largely ignored impacts on wetlands and wildlife. In some areas, economic ventures such as aquaculture operations and salt mining have not involved waterbird habitat needs in their planning. Research and conservation needs include: (1) establishing regional monitoring programs and data banks for seabirds, wading birds, ducks, and geese; (2) implementing a wetland inventory for many Countries with little quantitative data on wetlands; (3) improving habitat quality assessments; (4) improving relationships with industry, the private citizenry, and government officials to further an appreciation for the value of wetlands and waterbirds; (5) enhancing training efforts, especially in underdeveloped Countries; (6) evaluating the effects of hunting and other disturbances to nesting and feeding waterbirds in different regions; (7) setting up 'sister-reserve' (twinned) sites in Europe and Africa to foster international linkages and training; and (8) fostering local-regional conservation programs to preserve reed beds, wet woodlots, and other key habitats.

Book chapter↗

Conservation planning and monitoring avian habitat

Migratory bird conservation plans should not only develop population goals, they also should establish attainable objectives for optimizing avian habitats. Meeting population goals is of paramount importance, but progress toward established habitat objectives can generally be monitored more easily than can progress toward population goals. Additionally, local or regional habitat objectives can be attained regardless of perturbations to avian populations that occur outside the geographic area covered by conservation plans. Assessments of current avian habitats, obtained from remotely sensed data, and the historical distribution of habitats should be used in establishing habitat objectives. Habitat planning and monitoring are best conducted using a geographic information system. Habitat objectives are assigned to three categories: maintaining existing habitat, restoring habitat, and creating new or alternative habitat. Progress toward meeting habitat objectives can be monitored through geographic information systems by incorporating georeferenced information on public lands, private lands under conservation easements, corporate lands under prescribed management, habitat restoration areas, and private lands under alternative management to enhance wildlife values. We recommend that the area and distribution of habitats within the area covered by conservation plans be reassessed from remotely sensed imagery at intervals appropriate to detect predicted habitat changes.

Book chapter↗

[Book review] American sportsmen and the origins of conservation

The relationship of this book to ornithology is so indirect that the work barely merits a review on these pages. In a rather subtle way, however, the book may have a considerable effect on at least one aspect of ornithology, that involving scientific collecting. In essence, the volume is an entry in the hunting versus antihunting controversy, by a historian who is a sportsman. A challenge to antihunting preservationists, the premise is that sportsmen (those who hunt and fish for pleasure rather than for food or profit), and not preservationists, were the founders of conservation concepts in the United States. The implied conclusion is that modern hunting and fishing are valid, conservation- oriented activities. The proof of the thesis depends on demonstrating that those persons who led the conservation movement were in fact sportsmen, as defined, rather than fitting any other categorization, and that only those who fit the definition were effective. The method is to detail both the sporting proclivities and conservation efforts of leaders in the movement and to ignore or belittle other activities of those persons and other persons not considered sportsmen. Although effective in making a point, the technique suffers from the difficulties inherent in any one-character classification.

The Auk↗

Role of banding in forest conservation strategy in eastern Guatemala

In response to a request from FUNDAECO, a Guatemalan non-government organization, we worked with them to develop a conservation strategy for the Cerro San Gil Protected Area and surrounding private lands. Volunteer banders from a dozen states and Canadian provinces assisted in long-term monitoring of populations of resident and migratory species through banding and point counts. Guatemalan students were trained to continue the research and initiate other conservation projects. Banding data helped demonstrate habitat and elevational affiliations, effects of habitat fragmentation, site fidelity, survival rates, local movements, and presence of rare species not otherwise detected. Banding was also an excellent teaching tool and provided videos for conservation programs on Guatemala national television. Roadside and off-road Breeding Bird Survey transects were used to map distribution of breeding species on habitat maps derived from satellite imagery, and point count surveys on private lands were used to identify prime habitats that warrant protection through conservation easements--a new concept for Central America.

North American Bird Bander↗

The Colorado Plateau V: research, environmental planning, and management for collaborative conservation

Roughly centered on the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States, the Colorado Plateau covers some 130,000 square miles of sparsely vegetated plateaus, mesas, canyons, arches, and cliffs in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. With elevations ranging from 3,000 to 14,000 feet, the natural systems found within the plateau are dramatically varied, from desert to alpine conditions.This volume, the fifth from the University of Arizona Press and the tenth overall, focuses on adaptation of resource management and conservation to climate change and water scarcity, protecting biodiversity through restructured energy policies, ensuring wildlife habitat connectivity across barriers, building effective conservation networks, and exploring new opportunities for education and leadership in conservation science.An informative read for people interested in the conservation and natural history of the region, the book will also serve as a valuable reference for those people engaged in the management of cultural and biological resources of the Colorado Plateau, as well as scientists interested in methods and tools for land and resource management throughout the West.

Book↗

Status assessment and conservation plan for the Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum )

The Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum) breeds in grassland habitats throughout much of the U.S., southern and southeastern Canada, and northern Mexico. Additional subspecies are resident in Central America, northern South America, and the Caribbean. It winters primarily in the coastal states of the southeastern U.S., southern portions of the southwestern states, and in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. The species prefers relatively open grassland with intermediate grass height and density and patchy bare ground; because it is widely distributed across different grassland types in North America, it selects different vegetation structure and species composition depending on what is available. In the winter, they use a broader range of grassland habitats including open grasslands, as well as weedy fields and grasslands with woody vegetation. Analyses show significant range-wide population declines from the late 1960s through the present, primarily caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation. Grasshopper Sparrow is still a relatively common and broadly distributed species, but because of significant population declines and stakeholder concerns, the species is considered of conservation concern nationally and at the state level for numerous states. Many factors, often related to different grassland management practices (e.g., grazing, burning, mowing, management of shrub encroachment, etc.) throughout the species’ range, have impacts on Grasshopper Sparrow distribution, abundance, and reproduction and may represent limiting factors or threats given steep declines in this species’ population. Because of the concerns for this species, Grasshopper Sparrow has been identified as a focal species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and this Status Assessment and Conservation Plan for Grasshopper Sparrow has been developed. Through literature searches and input from stakeholders across its range, this plan presents information about Grasshopper Sparrow population status, distribution, habitat needs, threats and limiting factors; synthesis of these resources has identified recommended action items addressing population status and trends, habitat conservation, management, research, inventory and monitoring, and education and outreach components that will facilitate Grasshopper Sparrow conservation across its full annual cycle.

Report↗

Draft comprehensive conservation plan and environmental impact statement-Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge

The Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge Complex, consisting of some of the newer properties in the National Wildlife Refuge System, is a work in progress. Offering unique assets to surrounding communities, these lands promise to become some of the premier urban wildlife refuges in the country. At the heart of the refuge complex is the Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge: 16,000 acres of shortgrass and mixed-grass prairie that is home to bison, bald eagles, migratory songbirds, prairie dogs, and much more—all within the Denver Metropolitan area. This comprehensive conservation plan will be the first in the country designed to begin implementing the Refuge System’s new Urban Refuge Initiative. To accomplish this, we analyzed a wide range of options on how best to support up to one million visitors per year without compromising our principal purposes to protect and preserve fish and wildlife and their habitats. We are fortunate to have inherited a great deal of infrastructure from the U.S. Army, but we are also constrained by the current condition and layout of these facilities. Some of this infrastructure may be acting as barriers to the public—a condition inconsistent with the purposes of the refuge. Accordingly, we have developed a goal to increase and improve suitable access to the refuge, develop sustainable transportation options, and provide more connections among the units of the refuge complex. This increased access will enable people from all walks of life to visit the refuge. The vision we have developed for the refuge complex calls for the restoration of the refuge’s historical habitats, and the reconnection of people with the natural lands of the refuge and of the region at large using a network consisting of multimodal trails, a far-reaching light-rail system, and the Denver International Airport. This refuge is well positioned to leverage and catalyze early investments to create world-class wildlife habitat and a conservation education facility in the heart of a rapidly growing urban metropolis. So positioned, the refuge represents the ideal intersection of nature and education to transmit the message of conservation, outdoor recreation, and stewardship to future generations. Toward this end, collaboration is essential to the refuge’s future success. We will continue to foster and improve our strong public and private partnerships in the surrounding communities. These partnerships will enable us to act quickly and effectively as we invest in education and outreach efforts to fulfill our potential as a conservation catalyst in neighboring communities, the larger Intermountain West, and the world.

Report↗

The conservation and population status of the world's waders at the turn of the millennium

Using information from many sources, but especially data collated for the third edition of Wetlands International’s Waterbird Population Estimates, we review the status of the world’s waders in the late 1990s. There are widespread declines in most regions and biotopes caused principally by loss and degradation of wetland (and other) habitats. On different flyways, between 33%and 68% of populations are in decline, compared with only 0% to 29% increasing. Non-migratory, island species have especially poor status, with about half of all island waders being globally threatened with extinction. Of particular conservation concern is the declining environmental status of several key staging areas,which provide energetic ‘spring-boards’ for long-distance migrants. The degradation of these areas compromises the status of many migrant waders. The rapid collapse of populations, forced below threshold levels, has been predicted theoretically, and now appears to be occurring in a number of rapidly declining populations. Conservation responses must urgently address causes of wetland loss and degradation, as well as enhancing monitoring and research so as better to inform appropriate conservation policies. National and international strategies and conservation instruments have scope to help, but need to be much more strategic in their implementation so as to address root causes.

Conference Paper↗

Conservation implications when the nest predators are known

Conservation and management of passerines has largely focused on habitat manipulation or restoration because the natural communities on which these birds depend have been destroyed and fragmented. However, productivity is another important aspect of avian conservation, and nest predation can be a large source of nesting mortality for passerines. Recent studies using video surveillance to identify nest predators allow researchers to start evaluating what methods could be used to mitigate nest predation to help passerines of conservation concern. From recent studies, we identified latitudinal and habitat-related patterns in the importance of predator groups that depredate passerine nests. We then reviewed how knowledge of specific nest predators can benefit conservation of bird species of concern. Mammals were the dominant predator group in northern grasslands. Snakes were the dominant predator group in southern habitats. Fire ants were only a nest predator in southern latitudes. Differences in the importance of predator species or groups were likely the result of both their geographic patterns of distribution and habitat preferences. Some direct and indirect predator control measures developed for waterfowl management potentially could be used to benefit passerine productivity. We reviewed three examples-cowbirds, snakes in shrublands, and ground squirrels in grasslands-to illustrate how different predator control strategies may be needed in different situations. Mitigation of passerine nest predation will need to be based on knowledge of predator communities to be effective. This requires large samples of predation events with identified predators; video technology is essential for this task.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

Estimating the effects of wetland conservation practices in croplands: Approaches for modeling in CEAP–Cropland Assessment

Quantifying the current and potential benefits of conservation practices can be a valuable tool for encouraging greater practice adoption on agricultural lands. A goal of the CEAP-Cropland Assessment is to estimate the environmental effects of conservation practices that reduce losses (exports) of soil, nutrients, and pesticides from farmlands to streams and rivers. The assessment approach combines empirical data on reported cropland practices with simulation modeling that compares field-level exports for scenarios “with practices” and “without practices.” Conserved, restored, and created wetlands collectively represent conservation practices that can influence sediment and nutrient exports from croplands. However, modeling the role of wetlands within croplands presents some challenges, including the potential for negative impacts of sediment and nutrient inputs on wetland functions. This Science Note outlines some preliminary solutions for incorporating wetlands and wetland practices into the CEAP-Cropland modeling framework. First, modeling the effects of wetland practices requires identifying wetland hydrogeomorphic type and accounting for the condition of both the wetland and an adjacent upland zone. Second, modeling is facilitated by classifying wetland-related practices into two functional categories (wetland and upland buffer). Third, simulating practice effects requires alternative field configurations to account for hydrological differences among wetland types. These ideas are illustrated for two contrasting wetland types (riparian and depressional).

CEAP-Wetlands Science Note↗

Developing an effective Agassiz's Desert Tortoise monitoring program: Final report to the Coachella Valley Conservation Commission

Agassiz’s desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is a conservation-reliant species with populations north and west of the Colorado River protected as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (Averill-Murray et al. 2012). Since it was listed under this category in 1990, a great deal has been learned about the natural history of the species, and it is now one of the best-studied turtles in the United States (Lovich and Ennen 2013). However, the accumulated body of scientific data available for the species has not yet been translated into recovery or delisting of the species. Successful conservation of any species requires knowledge of their natural history and how vital rates affect their ability to maintain stable populations in the face of natural and anthropogenic stresses. Agassiz’s desert tortoises occur from southwestern Utah to near the Mexican border in California – a distance of over 450 km – but population densities vary greatly across this immense landscape (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2015). Tortoises occur in the Sonoran Desert of California, including the eastern and western ends of the Coachella Valley, where it is one of 27 species covered under the Coachella Valley Multiple Species Habitat Conservation Plan and Natural Community Conservation Plan (CVMSHCP/NCCP). The southern portion of Joshua Tree National Park (JTNP) lies within this 1.1 million acre planning area, and was predicted to be an area of low-density tortoise populations using habitat suitability modeling (Barrows 2011). JTNP is near the southern distributional limit of G. agassizii, yet very little has been published regarding the ecology of tortoises in the Sonoran Desert of California. Reproductive output is an important gross measure of the ability of a population to persist. When integrated with data on fertility and survivorship, this information forms a foundation for assessing population status and formulating effective management strategies (e.g., Congdon et al. 1993, 1994), especially for imperiled species. One aspect of the biology of G. agassizii that has been particularly well-studied is reproductive output. However, most of what we know about this topic comes from research in the Mojave Desert portion of the species’ range (Ernst and Lovich 2009). Comparatively little has been published on the reproductive ecology of populations living in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem of California. Publications by Lovich et al. (1999, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015) constitute the main body of literature on desert tortoise reproductive ecology in the Sonoran Desert of California, with one study population located at the western end of the CVMSHCP/NCCP area. Collecting data on Agassiz’s desert tortoise ecology in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem is important due to significant differences between the two adjacent desert ecosystems, especially the timing and amounts of annual precipitation, and their potential effects on reproductive output (e.g., Lovich et al. 5 2015). There are also differences in the vulnerability of tortoises to the effects of a warming, drying climate between the two deserts (Barrows 2011; Zylstra et al. 2012). The overall goal of this study was to collect data on demography, reproductive output, and genetic affinities at a study site in the Sonoran Desert portion of JTNP in the eastern end of the CVMSHCP/NCCP area. Specific objectives included: 1) Collect data to establish baselines on tortoise populations and/or their habitat suitability in core habitat within the CVNCCP area, including biotic and abiotic variables affecting persistence of tortoise populations; 2) Compare and contrast with data collected on desert tortoises at USGS/BLM study site near Palm Springs over 16 years; 3) Support long-term modeling efforts needed to determine tortoise population viability; 4) Refine modeled relationships with identified threats such as fire, invasive species and climate change; and 5) Prioritize adaptive management needs for the desert tortoise in and beyond the CVNCCP area. The data from this study will aid in determining baseline estimates of the desert tortoise population size within the planning area as well as establish a marked population of Agassiz’s desert tortoises for future monitoring. Data will be integrated with habitat modeling in order to refine model output. Genetic data will be collected on both the north and south sides of Interstate 10 to determine the potential effects of habitat fragmentation and genetic mixing. Analyses are ongoing and results beyond those presented in this report will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals following inclusion of additional data collected on the south side of Shavers Valley in 2017-2018.

Report↗

Strategic conservation of an imperiled freshwater mussel, the Dwarf Wedgemussel, in North Carolina

To be effective, managers of imperiled species must face the unavoidable tradeoff between conservation benefits and constrained budgets and must not be paralyzed by scientific uncertainty. Decision analysis can help meet these challenges when used to develop cost-effective strategies to recover or improve the status of species. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, along with state partners, developed a structured decision analysis to guide conservation of Dwarf Wedgemussel (Alasmidonta heterodon) in North Carolina. The Dwarf Wedgemussel is federally listed as endangered, and North Carolina is the southern-most extent of its range, where small and vulnerable populations occur in the Tar and Neuse River basins. The main threat in the Neuse River basin is habitat loss due to anthropogenic land use changes. In contrast, the Tar River basin primarily has been affected by recent drought and stream habitat loss due to beaver impoundments, although habitat has been somewhat buffered from development. A collaborative team used multiple-objective decision analysis to compare the ability of conservation strategies to maximize species persistence while accounting for uncertainty in management effectiveness and variation in in the importance of different management objectives. The decision analysis helped managers evaluate tradeoffs regarding Dwarf Wedgemussel distribution within the Neuse River and Tar River basins. The most cost-effective and robust strategies traded off some opportunity for persistence in the Neuse River for protection of populations in the Tar River basin. The decision analysis is being used to guide efforts to conserve Dwarf Wedgemussel in North Carolina, although challenges continue due to constrained budgets, workload management, and limited regulatory tools.

North Carolina↗