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Assessing potential effects of oil and gas development activities on groundwater quality near and overlying the Elk Hills and North Coles Levee Oil Fields, San Joaquin Valley, California

Groundwater resources are utilized near areas of intensive oil and gas development in California’s San Joaquin Valley. In this study, we examined chemical and isotopic data to assess if thermogenic gas or saline water from oil producing formations have mixed with groundwater near the Elk Hills and North Coles Levee Oil Fields in the southwestern San Joaquin Valley. Major ion concentrations and stable isotope compositions were largely consistent with natural processes, including mixing of different recharge sources and water-rock interactions. Trace methane concentrations likely resulted from microbial rather than thermogenic sources. Trace concentrations of benzene and other dissolved hydrocarbons in three wells had uncertain sources that could occur naturally or be derived from oil and gas development activities or other anthropogenic sources. In the mid-1990s, two industrial supply wells had increasing Cl and B concentrations likely explained by mixing with up to 15 percent saline oil-field water injected for disposal in nearby injection disposal wells. Shallow groundwater along the western margin of Buena Vista Lake Bed had elevated Cl, B, and SO 4 concentrations that could be explained by accumulation of salts during natural wetting and drying cycles or, alternatively, legacy surface disposal of saline oil-field water in upgradient ephemeral drainages. This study showed that groundwater had relatively little evidence of thermogenic gas or saline water from oil and gas sources in most parts of the study area. However, the evidence for groundwater mixing with injected disposal water, and possibly legacy surface disposal water, demonstrates produced water management practices as a potential risk factor for groundwater-quality degradation near oil and gas fields. Additional studies in the San Joaquin Valley and elsewhere could improve understanding of such risks by assessing the locations, volumes, and types of produced water disposal practices used during the life of oil fields.

California

Profiles of gamma-ray and magnetic data for aerial surveys over parts of the Western United States from longitude 108 to 126 degrees W. and from latitude 34 to 49 degrees N.

This CD-ROM contains images generated from geophysical data, software for displaying and analyzing the images and software for displaying and examining profile data from aerial surveys flown as part of the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Program of the U.S. Department of Energy. The images included are of gamma-ray data (uranium, thorium, and potassium channels), Bouguer gravity data, isostatic residual gravity data, aeromagnetic anomalies, topography, and topography with bathymetry. This publication contains image data for the conterminous United States and profile data for the conterminous United States within the area longitude 108 to 126 degrees W. and latitude 34 to 49 degrees N. The profile data include apparent surface concentrations of potassium, uranium, and thorium, the residual magnetic field, and the height above the ground. The images on this CD-ROM include graytone and color images of each data set, color shaded-relief images of the potential-field and topographic data, and color composite images of the gamma-ray data. The image display and analysis software can register images with geographic and geologic overlays. The profile display software permits the user to view the profiles as well as obtain data listings and export ASCII versions of data for selected flight lines.

Data Series

Statistical approaches for modeling correlated grade and tonnage distributions and applications for mineral resource assessments

Correlations between grade and tonnage exist in mineral resource data compiled from published reports, but they are not always addressed during quantitative assessment of undiscovered mineral resources. Failure to account for correlated grade and tonnage distributions can result in geologically unrealistic assessment results. Current software tools simulate univariate ore tonnage and multivariate resource grades of undiscovered deposits independently. As a result, analysts are forced to rely on ad-hoc solutions to minimize the correlation issues by: 1) creating subsets of data with restricted criteria; 2) truncating grade and tonnage distributions; and 3) testing model robustness using exploratory data analysis. While these methods represent pragmatic solutions, the statistical solutions presented here provide additional options to address real correlations in grade and tonnage data used for mineral resource assessments. We present a modified version of the MapMark4 package in R that introduces two alternatives for modeling grade and tonnage distributions, consisting of a multivariate solution that accounts for correlations between ore tonnage and metal grades and an empirical solution that utilizes simple random sampling with replacement to reproduce coupled grades and tonnages from the input data. We present simulations for contained ore and metal for three case studies representing tungsten skarn, komatiite-hosted nickel, and sediment-hosted carbonate amagmatic zinc-lead (Mississippi Valley-type) deposits. Employing the methods presented here yields quantitative mineral resource assessment results that more closely reflect the empirical distributions of grades and tonnages observed in nature and expands the applicability of these tools for ongoing critical mineral resource assessments.

Applied Computing and Geosciences

Methods and guidelines for effective model calibration; with application to UCODE, a computer code for universal inverse modeling, and MODFLOWP, a computer code for inverse modeling with MODFLOW

This report documents methods and guidelines for model calibration using inverse modeling. The inverse modeling and statistical methods discussed are broadly applicable, but are presented as implemented in the computer programs UCODE, a universal inverse code that can be used with any application model, and MODFLOWP, an inverse code limited to one application model. UCODE and MODFLOWP perform inverse modeling, posed as a parameter-estimation problem, by calculating parameter values that minimize a weighted least-squares objective function using nonlinear regression. Minimization is accomplished using a modified Gauss-Newton method, and prior, or direct, information on estimated parameters can be included in the regression. Inverse modeling in many fields is plagued by problems of instability and nonuniqueness, and obtaining useful results depends on (1) defining a tractable inverse problem using simplifications appropriate to the system under investigation and (2) wise use of statistics generated using calculated sensitivities and the match between observed and simulated values, and associated graphical analyses. Fourteen guidelines presented in this work suggest ways of constructing and calibrating models of complex systems such that the resulting model is as accurate and useful as possible.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

High-resolution landscape-scale maps of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in Suisun Bay and the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California, during 2018—Results from high-resolution underway surveys

We examined the abundance and distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun, Grizzly, and Honker Bays in California by completing three spatial surveys that used continuous underway high frequency (1 hertz) measurements and sampling onboard a high-speed boat. Surveys were conducted in May, July, and October 2018. Water was sampled continuously during surveys to simultaneously collect information about the concentration and spatial distribution of all major nutrient forms together with information about the major classes of phytoplankton and associated standard field measurements of water quality, such as dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic matter, pH, salinity, specific conductance, turbidity, and water temperature. The results show a greater than 50-fold variation in nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations across space and time, providing evidence of the dynamic environmental processes that shape the ways nutrients interact with and affect Delta aquatic habitats.

Data Report

Effects of drought and cloud-water interception on groundwater recharge and wildfire hazard for recent and future climate conditions, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi

The Water-budget Accounting for Tropical Regions Model (WATRMod) code was used for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for a set of water-budget scenarios. The scenarios included historical and future drought conditions, and a land-cover condition where shrubland and forest within the cloud zone were converted to grassland. For the historical drought condition, island-wide mean annual recharge estimates range from a decrease of 30 percent (239 million gallons per day [Mgal/d]) for Kauaʻi to a decrease of 39 percent (2,706 Mgal/d) for the Island of Hawaiʻi, relative to the reference condition consisting of 1978–2007 rainfall and 2020 land cover. For the future drought condition, estimates of island-wide mean annual recharge range from a decrease of 40 percent (477 Mgal/d) on Maui to a decrease of 51 percent (116 Mgal/day) on Molokaʻi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition produces estimated land-cover-related decreases in island-wide mean annual recharge (in addition to the drought-related decreases) of 11–12 Mgal/d on Oʻahu, 119–135 Mgal/day on Maui, and 689–849 Mgal/d on the Island of Hawaiʻi. The spatial distributions of increases in conditions indicative of moisture stress and potential wildfire hazard were quantified using the relative frequency of soil moisture less than a selected threshold value (monthly mean soil moisture less than 0.074, expressed as a fraction of available water capacity), evapotranspiration less than a selected threshold value (monthly evapotranspiration less than 0.96 inches), and climatic water deficit greater than a selected threshold value (monthly climatic water deficit greater than 0.77, expressed as fraction of potential evapotranspiration). For the historical drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency for the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of east and southwest Kauaʻi; central, east, and west Oʻahu; central Molokaʻi; central Maui and low- to mid-altitude parts of West Maui volcano; and the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi. For the future drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency of the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of west Kauaʻi; central and west Oʻahu and Molokaʻi; a band of mid-altitude area on the southern slope of West Maui volcano and across the southwestern slope of Haleakalā; and mid-altitude areas of the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition results in land-cover-related increases in the relative frequency of moisture-stress indicators around Kaʻala in the Waiʻanae Range and the southeastern part of the Koʻolau Range on Oʻahu, the southern part of West Maui volcano and the southwestern slope of Haleakalā on Maui, and the upland regions of the western and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi.

Hawaii

Inference of pattern-based geological CO2 sequestration and oil recovery potential in a commingled main pay and residual oil zone CO2-EOR flood

Several detailed studies have shown that residual oil zones (ROZs) can present significant resources for additional hydrocarbon recovery as well as subsurface carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration via enhanced oil recovery by injecting CO 2 (CO 2 -EOR). Field development strategies included new wells drilled dedicated to main pay zones (MPZ) and ROZs, or existing wells in MPZs deepened to ROZs for commingled injection-production using different well patterns. The latter presented a challenge when discerning the injection and production from each of the zones, and for subsequent quantification of CO 2 sequestration and EOR potential from different patterns and from the field. In this paper, an innovative method for analyzing commingled injections and productions from MPZs and ROZs, with application to pattern-based data from four staggered line drive patterns in Wasson Field's Denver Unit, Texas, USA, was developed. Decline curve and ratio-trend methods were used as means of history-matching and forecasting. Cumulative production-time and cumulative production-rate data for oil, gas, and water, as well as water-oil ratio (WOR) and gas-oil ratio (GOR), were analyzed along with injection data for time intervals covering major injection events in MPZ, or MPZ and ROZ combined. A combined analysis enabled inference of allocation of fluids into different zones during WAG (water alternating gas) injection and thereby estimation of CO 2 storage, utilization, and retention in different zones as a function of total injection. Results show that ROZs generally present higher CO 2 sequestration potential compared to MPZs, and a comparable incremental oil recovery factor of ∼20%, on average. Results based on ratio analysis further show that while the WOR trend of the pattern production is mostly dominated and controlled by ROZ, GOR is controlled by both intervals. Although the method relying on decline curves and the approach used in zonal fluid allocations are subject to their limitations, this study presents a practical and innovative well-pattern-based method to infer and forecast CO 2 sequestration and oil recovery quantities and fluid ratios from MPZs and ROZs in commingled operations and highlight the added potential offered by ROZs.

Texas

Method for estimating water use and interbasin transfers of freshwater and wastewater in an urbanized basin

Techniques for management of drainage basins that use water budgets to balance available water resources with actual or anticipated water use require accurate and precise estimates of basin withdrawals, interbasin transfers of freshwater, unaccounted-for use, water use, consumptive use, inflow and infiltration, basin return flow, and interbasin transfers of wastewater. Frequently, interbasin transfers of freshwater and wastewater are not included in basin water budgets because they occur within public water-delivery and wastewater-collection systems. A new 10-step method was developed to improve estimates of inflow and infiltration and interbasin transfers using readily available statewide data. The accuracy and precision of water-use estimates determined by this method are improved through careful application of coefficients for small users and the use of metered values for large users. The method was developed and tested with data for the Ten Mile River Basin in southeastern Massachusetts. This report uses examples from the basin to illustrate each step of the method.

Massachusetts

Stable isotope composition and geochemistry of calcite and dolomite in the Mountain Pass carbonatite: A lens into petrogenesis

Carbonatites host most of the global rare earth element (REE) deposits. The petrogenesis of these rocks, including magmatic and post-magmatic processes, are poorly understood but critical in forming and upgrading these deposits. The Mountain Pass carbonatite, which hosts the only active REE mine in North America, is lithologically variable but consistently contains >50% calcite and/or dolomite. Multiple generations of carbonates are evident, suggesting bulk analysis of carbonate minerals would generate a mixed isotopic and geochemical signature. In-situ stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, combined with geochemical analysis and petrography, distinguish carbonate generations, trace the source region of the carbonatite magma, and link carbonate genesis to REE mineralization throughout the intrusion. Primary carbon and oxygen isotope values outside the accepted mantle range may suggest a subduction-related carbon and oxygen source in the mantle. Deformation textures in primary calcite indicate syn- or post-crystallization ductile flow. Carbonates with secondary textures and heavy δ 13 C and δ 18 O values are associated with ore mineralization, suggesting fluid mobilization was important in concentrating REE and upgrading of the Mountain Pass deposit.

California

Hydrologic response of groundwater and streamflow to natural and anthropogenic drivers of change in headwaters of the upper Colorado River basin during recent wet (1982–1999) and drought (2000–2022) conditions

Study region: Headwaters of the upper Colorado River basin (UCOL), USA Study focus: Surface-water and groundwater numerical models incorporating water-use information were used to investigate changes in climate, water use, and simulated hydrologic responses of snow processes, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and streamflow during recent wet (1982–1999) and drought (2000–2022) periods in the headwater subregions of the upper Colorado River basin. New hydrologic insights for the region: Decreases in average streamflow between wet and drought periods ranged from 20 % in the Colorado River headwaters subregion to 23 % in the Gunnison River headwaters subregion. Like streamflow, average surface runoff was statistically less during the drought than the wet period, with decreases from 24–31 % in the headwaters. On a volume basis, runoff decreases were greater than streamflow decreases in both the Colorado River and Gunnison River headwaters. Although the amount of water-year groundwater discharge to streams remained nearly the same between the wet and drought periods, groundwater as a percentage of streamflow increased between the wet and drought periods, highlighting the importance of groundwater in sustaining streamflow during drought conditions. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that snowmelt-only models were better than the best precipitation and temperature models at explaining streamflow variability from all headwater subregions for both the wet and drought periods.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Tungsten skarn quantitative mineral resource assessment and gold, rare earth elements, graphite, and uranium qualitative assessments of the Kuldjuktau and Auminzatau Ranges, in the central Kyzylkum region, Uzbekistan

A new quantitative mineral resource assessment for tungsten skarn was conducted for the Auminzatau and Kuldjuktau mountain ranges in Central Uzbekistan, along with qualitative assessments of orogenic gold, rare earth elements (REEs), amorphous graphite, and uranium. By integrating a variety of geological, geochemical, geophysical, and remote sensing data sets, estimates of undiscovered tungsten skarn deposits in permissive tracts are combined with grade and tonnage distributions of known deposits to generate probabilistic estimates of undiscovered resources. Undiscovered deposits in Auminzatau are estimated to contain median resources of 98 thousand metric tons (kt) of WO 3 with a 70 percent (%) probability of at least 28 kt and a 10% probability of at least 468 kt, of which 16 kt to 293 kt may be economic to extract. In Kuldjuktau, the undiscovered deposits are estimated to contain median resources of 27 kt of WO 3 with a 60% probability of at least 12 kt and a 10% probability of at least 208 kt, of which 5 kt to 132 kt may be economic to extract. Our results suggest that the Auminzatau–Kuldjuktau Mountains area is highly prospective for additional discovery of significant Au and U resources and has low prospectivity for discovery of significant REE and graphite resources.

Minerals

Integrating habitat suitability and climate constraints to predict nonnative fish invasion risk for U.S. streams and inland lakes

Introduction: Nonnative fishes in streams and inland lakes can substantially alter aquatic ecosystems by degrading habitat conditions, competing with native species, and restructuring food webs. Identifying invasion hotspots can inform proactive management and prevention of nonnative species establishment. Methods: In this study, we identified streams and lakes across the conterminous United States that are vulnerable to invasion by 18 nonnative stream and 28 nonnative lake fish species. Habitat suitability models were developed separately for stream and lake species across nine ecoregions using natural and anthropogenic predictors, and species occurrences were predicted by integrating model results with climate match scores based on comparisons between environmental conditions in species’ native and potential nonnative ranges. We classified areas with both high habitat suitability and strong climate similarity as having high invasion potential and generated hotspot maps by stacking species-level predictions. Results: Florida exhibits the highest invasion risk for both habitat types. Stream hotspots were concentrated near major metropolitan areas, whereas lake hotspots were more widely distributed across the Great Lakes basin and the northeastern U.S. Twelve species were predicted to invade both habitat types, with goldfish ( Carassius auratus ) and pirapitinga ( Piaractus brachypomus ) showing particularly high invasion potential. Discussion: These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of nonnative freshwater fish invasion risk and support targeted monitoring and management strategies.

conterminous United States

Monazite and xenotime U-Pb geochronology and thermometry of the Blue Ridge and Inner Piedmont of North Carolina: Implications for the thermal-metamorphic evolution of the southern Appalachian metamorphic “core”

The southern Appalachian orogen preserves a complex distribution of metamorphism and deformation varying in timing, magnitude, and spatial extent. These complexities give rise to disparate interpretations for southern Appalachian tectonic evolution, which complicates the testing and interpretation of tectonic models in this system. New monazite (Mnz) and xenotime (Xtm) laser ablation split stream (LASS) analyses alongside Mnz-Xtm thermometry in the orogenic core in the eastern Blue Ridge (EBR), western Inner Piedmont (WIP), and Cat Square terranes (CST) of North Carolina yield new constraints that define distinct pro- and retrograde metamorphic events. The EBR preserves two prograde thermal events: the Taconic (∼470-440 Ma, >660°C) and Neoacadian (∼380-340 Ma, 600–700°C), separated by a period of cooling (exhumation?) and followed by garnet breakdown from 339 to 329 Ma. Evidence of pervasive Neoacadian ductile deformation in the EBR is largely limited to the Brevard fault zone (BFZ), indicating that a major rheological gradient existed across the BFZ during the Neoacadian and early Alleghanian. Southeast of the BFZ, in the WIP and CST, monazite data define a protracted Neoacadian evolution from early mineral growth at ∼405 Ma at ∼450–600°C to >700°C at ∼360 Ma, followed by early Alleghanian retrograde metamorphism and deformation (<345 Ma, 350–500°C). These constraints, together with previously reported thermobarometric data, define a P-T-t evolution for the WIP and CST consistent with Neoacadian crustal flow, while the coeval presence of a thermal-rheological boundary along the BFZ further supports a model of Neoacadian crustal “escape” flow within the orogen.

North Carolina

Temporal and spatial comparison of coal mine ventilation methane emissions and mitigation quantified using PRISMA satellite data and on-site measurements

Emission monitoring at the facility level (bottom-up, BU) is key for accurate reporting of coal mine methane (CMM) emissions. Recent advances in aerial and satellite observations (top-down, TD) indicate that these methods have the potential to support CMM emissions monitoring and reporting of, as well as track the effectiveness of, mitigation actions. That said, studies have shown discrepancies between BU and TD estimations. Performing TD monitoring with concurrent BU measurements at the same mines may help address the observed discrepancies and improve quantification methods to narrow the gap between BU and TD data. This paper presents a comparison of concurrent BU-TD methane emission fluxes monitored from two ventilation shafts at a southwestern Virginia, USA, longwall mine to complement the existing body of studies on satellite-based monitoring of coal mines by incorporating continuous ground-based monitoring with concurrent TD monitoring of methane emission fluxes to address the gap and provide valuable insights into temporal emission patterns. The shafts were monitored on multiple dates between 2020 and 2023. BU monitoring was performed at the exhaust fans, while TD quantifications used PRISMA hyperspectral satellite data and two different wind reanalysis datasets (i.e., GEOS-FP and ERA5). This mine also offered a unique opportunity for BU-TD comparisons before and after ventilation air methane (VAM) oxidizer operation, which was installed at one of the shafts in 2022. The results showed that TD-estimated mean fluxes were generally lower than BU data, which were attributed to quantification difficulties associated with the low albedo caused by heavy vegetation and the terrain of the area. However, despite the discrepancies in mean emissions, both the interquartile range and the data range of the distributions generally overlapped, and the estimates correctly showed the emission trends.

Virginia

The Long Island Sound and Watershed Metadata map application

The Long Island Sound and its watershed encompass an area of about 17,000 square miles and include the Connecticut, Housatonic, and Thames Rivers, which all drain to the sound. Dozens of organizations from government agencies, nonprofits, and Tribal Nations have developed projects and monitoring programs to analyze and protect the water resources of the watershed and sound. The abundance of data and lack of an existing searchable index require a centralized metadata repository to allow users to find water resources data more efficiently. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Long Island Sound Study, has created an interactive map application to visualize and search for metadata information across organizations working to monitor and protect the Long Island Sound.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Yor

A decade of shaking in the Garden City: The dynamics of preparedness, perceptions, and beliefs in Canterbury, New Zealand, and implications for earthquake information

This study explored earthquake preparedness over time - before, during, and 10 years after the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). Surveys of Canterbury residents were conducted in 2009, 2013 and again in 2021, using variables derived from Community Engagement Theory (CET). The surveys measured earthquake perceptions and beliefs, participation and engagement, and preparedness actions. Results were compared across the three samples. Findings indicate that perceptions and beliefs (e.g. risk perception, outcome expectancy beliefs), and types of preparedness actions taken (e.g. collection of survival items, structural preparedness, community and agency relationships), differed over time, depending on people’s experiences before, during, and after the CES. For example, during and after the CES people were more likely to believe that preparing provided a benefit to daily life, but less likely to think it could reduce property damage, perhaps due to people’s experiences of disruption and damage during the earthquakes. An understanding of such dynamics can assist with the provision and timing of risk and preparedness information. This study highlights the importance of providing applicable and actionable preparedness information, that is relevant to people’s experiences, throughout an earthquake sequence. Such information might evolve and change in focus over time depending on risks and needs. Focus could also be given to information that builds peoples beliefs and capacities to undertake preparedness in evolving situations. Understanding preparedness in the context of different experiences and timeframes is useful in helping update models such as the CET, where the dynamics of time might be better incorporated.

Canterbury

New York and Landsat

From the iconic skyline of New York City to the forested landscapes of the Adirondack Mountains and the countryside of the Allegheny Plateau, the State of New York is overflowing with diversity and life. Bordered by the Atlantic Ocean on the east and two of the Great Lakes to the north and west, New York has more than 7,600 lakes, ponds, and reservoirs and more than 70,000 miles of rivers and streams. New York’s stewardship of its freshwater resources is fundamental to the health and well-being of all who work at, reside in, and visit the State’s landmarks and places. Harmful algal blooms in the State’s waterbodies are a growing concern and threaten the health of the region and its inhabitants. Images and data from Landsat satellites continue to provide critical information to scientists, public health officials, and resource managers who are studying the effects and risks of the problem.

New York