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Maps of the Arctic Alaska boundary area as defined by the U.S. Arctic Research and Policy Act—Including geospatial characteristics of select marine and terrestrial features

This pamphlet presents a series of general reference maps showing relevant geospatial features of the U.S. Arctic boundary as defined by the U.S. Congress since 1984. The first generation of the U.S. Arctic Research and Policy Act (ARPA) boundary maps was originally formatted and published in 2009 by a private firm contracted with the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Arctic Research Commission. Recognizing the steadily increasing relevance of Arctic issues to national and global affairs that requires more functional projections and online tools, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Regional Office and the National Geospatial Technical Operations Center developed this updated series of ARPA boundary maps. Map sheet 1 shows the ARPA boundary as it relates to Alaska and marine features of the Bering Sea. Map sheet 2 shows the ARPA boundary from a circumpolar perspective. Map sheet 3 shows the national boundary of the U.S. 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone through the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas, facilitating Arctic domain awareness and more consistent territorial assessments of the U.S. Arctic. Map sheet 4 shows, in poster-size detail, the ARPA boundary as it relates to terrestrial features of Arctic Alaska north of the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers. Map sheet 5 shows, in poster-size detail, the ARPA boundary as it relates to marine and terrestrial features of the Aleutian Islands. These new maps collectively illustrate several value-added attributes, including updated bathymetry and shoreline refinements, demographic information, international borders and offshore territorial claims, Alaska conservation areas, Alaska land cover, Alaska terrestrial shaded relief, annual sea ice maximum extent, annual circumpolar 10-degree-Celsius isotherm, location of active volcanoes, and updated geospatial information. The static PDF-file maps offer value as standalone products but are intended for use with a potential interactive website that can be sourced by annual data updates, allowing users to access the various map layers in a dynamic up-to-date environment.

Alaska↗

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency at gaged and ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada, based on data through water year 2012

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are needed across Alaska for engineering design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, flood-plain management, and other water-resource purposes. This report updates methods for estimating flood magnitude and frequency in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2012 were compiled from 387 streamgages on unregulated streams with at least 10 years of record. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for each streamgage using the Expected Moments Algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak flows. A multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to identify potentially influential low floods in the time series of peak flows for censoring in the flood frequency analysis. For two new regional skew areas, flood-frequency estimates using station skew were computed for stations with at least 25 years of record for use in a Bayesian least-squares regression analysis to determine a regional skew value. The consideration of basin characteristics as explanatory variables for regional skew resulted in improvements in precision too small to warrant the additional model complexity, and a constant model was adopted. Regional Skew Area 1 in eastern-central Alaska had a regional skew of 0.54 and an average variance of prediction of 0.45, corresponding to an effective record length of 22 years. Regional Skew Area 2, encompassing coastal areas bordering the Gulf of Alaska, had a regional skew of 0.18 and an average variance of prediction of 0.12, corresponding to an effective record length of 59 years. Station flood-frequency estimates for study sites in regional skew areas were then recomputed using a weighted skew incorporating the station skew and regional skew. In a new regional skew exclusion area outside the regional skew areas, the density of long-record streamgages was too sparse for regional analysis and station skew was used for all estimates. Final station flood frequency estimates for all study streamgages are presented for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. Regional multiple-regression analysis was used to produce equations for estimating flood frequency statistics from explanatory basin characteristics. Basin characteristics, including physical and climatic variables, were updated for all study streamgages using a geographical information system and geospatial source data. Screening for similar-sized nested basins eliminated hydrologically redundant sites, and screening for eligibility for analysis of explanatory variables eliminated regulated peaks, outburst peaks, and sites with indeterminate basin characteristics. An ordinary least‑squares regression used flood-frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 341 streamgages (284 in Alaska and 57 in Canada) to determine the most suitable combination of basin characteristics for a flood-frequency regression model and to explore regional grouping of streamgages for explaining variability in flood-frequency statistics across the study area. The most suitable model for explaining flood frequency used drainage area and mean annual precipitation as explanatory variables for the entire study area as a region. Final regression equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability discharge in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada were developed using a generalized least-squares regression. The average standard error of prediction for the regression equations for the various annual exceedance probabilities ranged from 69 to 82 percent, and the pseudo-coefficient of determination (pseudo-R 2 ) ranged from 85 to 91 percent. The regional regression equations from this study were incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program for a limited area of the State—the Cook Inlet Basin. StreamStats is a national web-based geographic information system application that facilitates retrieval of streamflow statistics and associated information. StreamStats retrieves published data for gaged sites and, for user-selected ungaged sites, delineates drainage areas from topographic and hydrographic data, computes basin characteristics, and computes flood frequency estimates using the regional regression equations.

Alaska↗

Development of ion-exchange collectors for monitoring atmospheric deposition of inorganic pollutants in Alaska parklands

Between 2010 and 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey completed a series of laboratory and field experiments designed to develop methodology to support the National Park Service’s long-term atmospheric pollutant monitoring efforts in parklands of Arctic Alaska. The goals of this research were to develop passive sampling methods that could be used for long-term monitoring of inorganic pollutants in remote areas of arctic parklands and characterize relations between wet and dry deposition of atmospheric pollutants to that of concentrations accumulated by mosses, specifically the stair-step, splendid feather moss, Hylocomium splendens. Mosses and lichens have been used by National Park Service managers as atmospheric pollutant biomonitors since about 1990; however, additional research is needed to better characterize the dynamics of moss bioaccumulation for various classes of atmospheric pollutants. To meet these research goals, the U.S. Geological Survey investigated the use of passive ionexchange collectors (IECs) that were adapted from the design of Fenn and others (2004). Using a modified IEC configuration, mulitple experiments were completed that included the following: (a) preliminary laboratory and development testing of IECs, (b) pilot-scale validation field studies during 2012 with IECs at sites with instrumental monitoring stations, and (c) deployment of IECs in 2014 at sites in Alaska having known or suspected regional sources of atmospheric pollutants where samples of Hylocomium splendens moss also could be collected for comparison. The targeted substances primarily included ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate ions, and certain toxicologically important trace metals, including cadmium, cobalt, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc. Deposition of atmospheric pollutants is comparatively low throughout most of Alaska; consequently, modifications of the original IEC design were needed. The most notable modification was conversion from a single-stage mixed-bed column to a two-stage arrangement. With the modified IEC design, ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate ions were determined with a precision of between 5 and 10 percent relative standard deviation for the low loads that happen in remote areas of Alaska. Results from 2012 field studies demonstrated that the targeted ions were stable and fully retained on the IEC during field deployment and could be fully recovered by extraction in the laboratory. Importantly, measurements of annual loads determined by combining snowpack and IEC sampling at sites near National Atmospheric Deposition Program monitoring stations was comparable to results obtained by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program. Field studies completed in 2014 included snowpack and IEC samples to measure depositional loads; the results were compared to concentrations of similar substances in co-located moss samples. Analyses of constituents in snow and IECs included ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate ions; and a suite of trace metals. Constituent measurements in Hylocomium splendens moss included total nitrogen, phosphorous, and sulfur, and trace metals. To recover ammonium ions and metal ions from the upper cation-exchange column, a two-step extraction procedure was developed from laboratory spiking experiments. The 2014 studies determined that concentrations of certain metals, nitrogen, and sulfur in tissues of Hylocomium splendens moss reflected differences in presumptive deposition from local atmospheric sources. Moss tissues collected from two sites farthest from urban locales had the lowest levels of total nitrogen and sulfur, whereas tissues collected from three of the urban sites had the greatest concentrations of many of the trace metals. Moss tissue concentrations of three trace metals (cobalt, chromium, and nickel) were strongly (positively) Spearman’s rank correlated ( p <0.05) with annual depositional loads of those metals. In addition, moss sulfur concentrations were positively rank correlated with annual depositional loads of sulfate ( p <0.07). Exploratory models indicated linear uptake of the three metals by Hylocomium splendens moss and nonlinear uptake of sulfur from sulfate. Our results provided useful preliminary models for several of the targeted substances; however, our ability to characterize relations between concentrations in moss and loadings for many of the metals was precluded by several factors. The few test sites, small concentration gradients, and generally low concentrations hampered model developments. In addition, the weather was unusually warm throughout Alaska during the winter of 2013–14, which caused intermittent melting of the snowpack at some of the test sites; consequently, our measurements of overwinter loads based on snowpack samples (obtained in late March) probably underestimated the actual loads. Regardless of these potential limitations, these studies have established a foundation to support further studies that can improve our understanding of how mosses accumulate inorganic substances and ultimately how mosses might be used as biomonitors of atmospheric pollutants; moreover, the successful development and validation of the IECs during this research documents how the methodology can be used for future monitoring efforts in remote regions of Alaska and elsewhere.

Alaska↗

Reconnaissance for radioactive deposits in Alaska, 1953

During the summer of 1953 the areas investigated for radioactive deposits in Alaska were on Nikolai Creek near Tyonek and on Likes Creek near Seward in south-central Alaska where carnotite-type minerals had been reported; in the headwaters of the Peace River in the eastern part of the Seward Peninsula and at Gold Bench on the South Fork of the Koyukuk River in east-central Alaska, where uranothorianite occurs in places associated with base metal sulfides and hematite; in the vicinity of Port Malmesbury in southeastern Alaska to check a reported occurrence of pitchblende; and, in the Miller House-Circle Hot Springs area of east-central Alaska where geochemical studies were made. No significant lode deposits of radioactive materials were found. However, the placer uranothorianite in the headwaters of the Peace River yet remains as an important lead to bedrock radioactive source materials in Alaska. Tundra cover prevents satisfactory radiometric reconnaissance of the area, and methods of geochemical prospecting such as soil and vegetation sampling may ultimately prove more fruitful in the search for the uranothorianite-sulfide lode source than geophysical methods.

Alaska↗

Movements of juvenile Gyrfalcons from western and interior Alaska following departure from their natal areas

J uvenile raptors often travel thousands of kilometers from the time they leave their natal areas to the time they enter a breeding population. Documenting movements and identifying areas used by raptors before they enter a breeding population is important for understanding the factors that influence their survival. In North America, juvenile Gyrfalcons ( Falco rusticolus ) are routinely observed outside the species' breeding range during the nonbreeding season, but the natal origins of these birds are rarely known. We used satellite telemetry to track the movements of juvenile Gyrfalcons during their first months of independence. We instrumented nestlings with lightweight satellite transmitters within 10 d of estimated fledging dates on the Seward Peninsula in western Alaska and in Denali National Park (Denali) in interior Alaska. Gyrfalcons spent an average of 41.4 ± 6.1 d (range = 30–50 d) in their natal areas after fledging. The mean departure date from natal areas was 27 August ± 6.4 d. We tracked 15 individuals for an average of 70.5 ± 28.1 d post-departure; Gyrfalcons moved from 105 to 4299 km during this period and tended to move greater distances earlier in the tracking period than later in the tracking period. Gyrfalcons did not establish temporary winter ranges within the tracking period. We identified several movement patterns among Gyrfalcons, including unidirectional long-distance movements, multidirectional long- and short-distance movements, and shorter movements within a local region. Gyrfalcons from the Seward Peninsula remained in western Alaska or flew to eastern Russia with no movements into interior Alaska. In contrast, Gyrfalcons from Denali remained in interior Alaska, flew to northern and western Alaska, or flew to northern Alberta. Gyrfalcons from both study areas tended to move to coastal, riparian, and wetland areas during autumn and early winter. Because juvenile Gyrfalcons dispersed over a large geographic area and across three international boundaries, conservation efforts should focus on both regional and international scales.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

Selected crater and small caldera lakes in Alaska: Characteristics and hazards

This study addresses the characteristics, potential hazards, and both eruptive and non-eruptive role of water at selected volcanic crater lakes in Alaska. Crater lakes are an important feature of some stratovolcanoes in Alaska. Of the volcanoes in the state with known Holocene eruptive activity, about one third have summit crater lakes. Also included are two volcanoes with small caldera lakes (Katmai, Kaguyak). The lakes play an important but not well studied role in influencing eruptive behavior and pose some significant hydrologic hazards. Floods from crater lakes in Alaska are evaluated by estimating maximum potential crater lake water volumes and peak outflow discharge with a dam-break model. Some recent eruptions and hydrologic events that involved crater lakes also are reviewed. The large volumes of water potentially hosted by crater lakes in Alaska indicate that significant flowage hazards resulting from catastrophic breaching of crater rims are possible. Estimates of maximum peak flood discharge associated with breaching of lake-filled craters derived from dam-break modeling indicate that flood magnitudes could be as large as 10 3 –10 6 m 3 /s if summit crater lakes drain rapidly when at maximum volume. Many of the Alaska crater lakes discussed are situated in hydrothermally altered craters characterized by complex assemblages of stratified unconsolidated volcaniclastic deposits, in a region known for large magnitude (>M7) earthquakes. Although there are only a few historical examples of eruptions involving crater lakes in Alaska, these provide noteworthy examples of the role of external water in cooling pyroclastic deposits, acidic crater-lake drainage, and water-related hazards such as lahars and base surge.

Alaska↗

Tectonic evolution and Cretaceous gold metallogenesis of southwestern Alaska

Cretaceous gold metallogenesis in southwestern Alaska comprises three distinct episodes related to the accretionary evolution of northwestern North America. The oldest mineralizing event is characterized by 112 Ma Cu-Au-Bi-Te porphyry-type(?) veining in the zoned Bonanza and adjacent plutons that intruded rocks of the Nyac terrane. Tectonic reconstructions and limited geological and geochemical data suggest that Cu-Au mineralization in the Nyac district may be related to terminal subduction during accretion of the Togiak-Koyukuk arc. The subsequent 100 to 89 Ma metallogenic event is a product of subduction-related magmatism immediately following accretion of the Peninsular-Alexander-Wrangellia superterrane and includes formation of the giant Pebble porphyry Cu-Au-Mo deposit. Pebble underwent a complex history of highly oxidized magmatism that is isotopically linked to enriched lithosphere or metasomatized mantle sources. Pebble and other porphyryrelated plutons were emplaced as a consequence of changes in plate motion and onset of dextral transpression along the continental margin to the southeast of their present-day locations. The final 75 to 65 Ma metallogenic event is regionally the most extensive. It followed a ~15-m.y.-long magmatic lull and is related to enigmatic subduction-related magmatism in the western part of the Alaska Range and the Kuskokwim basin. This event resulted in the formation of porphyry, reduced pluton-related, orogenic, and possible epithermal Au deposits. In the better-studied relatively low-relief areas of the Kuskokwim basin, many of the mineralized systems are spatially associated with ilmenite-series monzonite to quartz monzonite composite plutons that have isotopic signatures consistent with derivation from crustally contaminated mantle sources. These pluton-hosted Au deposits comprise low-sulfide stockworks, sheeted veins, and/or breccias in the cupolas of moderately differentiated intrusions that contain high Au; anomalous As, Bi, Sb, and/or Te; and have variable, but not uneconomic, Cu concentrations. In addition, Au, Sb, and/or Hg deposits hosted by competent NE-trending granite porphyry dike-sill complexes or along faults in flysch are widespread in the Kuskokwim basin. These deposits, including the giant Donlin Creek Au deposit, formed at shallow crustal levels and are classified here as epizonal orogenic Au deposits and related Hg and Sb lodes. Mesozonal orogenic Au deposits were formed along the margins of the uplifting Willow Creek pluton that is now exposed along the southern side of the Talkeetna Mountains batholith. Recent discoveries in the rugged Alaska Range comprise less well-studied porphyry Au-Cu (Whistler, Island Mountain), epithermal(?) Au (Terra), and reduced pluton-hosted Au deposits (Estelle). The cause of the broad latest Cretaceous magmatism associated with the final metallogenic event is enigmatic, but indicates widespread high heat flow possibly related to flat-slab subduction, lithospheric mantle delamination, or escape tectonics. Plutonism postdated regional folding and coincided with periods of movement along regional faults and formation of the NE-trending structural fabric. Magmatism resulted from initiation of transpressional faulting in more landward positions during oblique subduction of the Kula plate. Crustal contamination of mantle melts, either near their source or during ascent through the thick flysch of the Kuskokwim basin, produced low oxidation state magmas and controlled much of the metallogeny, particularly for those deposits that display similarities to both reduced porphyry Au-Cu deposits and, to a lesser degree, reduced intrusion-related Au systems. High heat flow also induced crustal melting and metamorphic devolatilization to form orogenic Au deposits. A transition to extension at ~60 Ma recorded elsewhere in Alaska temporally corresponds to termination of gold deposit formation in southwestern Alaska. The multiple periods of gold metallogenesis in southwestern Alaska offer a wide variety of targets for exploration within discrete parts of the region.

Society of Economic Geologists Special Publication↗

Exposure of Alaska brown bears (Ursus arctos) to bacterial, viral, and parasitic agents varies spatiotemporally and may be influenced by age

We collected blood and serum from 155 brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) inhabiting five locations in Alaska during 2013–16 and tested samples for evidence of prior exposure to a suite of bacterial, viral, and parasitic agents. Antibody seroprevalence among Alaska brown bears was estimated to be 15% for Brucella spp., 10% for Francisella tularensis , 7% for Leptospira spp., 18% for canine adenovirus type 1 (CAV-1), 5% for canine distemper virus (CDV), 5% for canine parvovirus, 5% for influenza A virus (IAV), and 44% for Toxoplasma gondii . No samples were seropositive for antibodies to Trichinella spp. Point estimates of prior exposure to pathogens among brown bears at previously unsampled locations generally fell within the range of estimates for previously or contemporaneously sampled bears in Alaska. Statistical support was found for variation in antibody seroprevalence among bears by location or age cohort for CAV-1, CDV, IAV, and Toxoplasma gondii . There was limited concordance in comparisons between our results and previous serosurveys regarding spatial and age-related trends in antibody seroprevalence among Alaska brown bears suggestive of temporal variation. However, we found evidence that the seroprevalence of CAV-1 antibodies is consistently high in bears inhabiting SW Alaska and the cumulative probability of exposure may increase with age. We found evidence for seroconversion or seroreversion to six different infectious agents in one or more bears. Results of this study increase our collective understanding of disease risk to both Alaska brown bear populations and humans that utilize this resource.

Alaska↗

Tectonic and magmatic controls on the metallogenesis of porphyry deposits in Alaska

Porphyry Cu and Mo deposits and occurrences are found throughout Alaska; they formed episodically during repeated subduction and arc-continent collisions spanning the Silurian to Quaternary. Porphyry systems occur in continental-margin and island arcs, which are broadly grouped into pre-accretionary or post-accretionary arcs. Pre-Mesozoic occurrences formed in continental or island arcs prior to accretion onto the margin of North America, whereas Mesozoic and younger systems formed in arcs that developed after terrane fragments were accreted to the margin of North America. As a result, older porphyry systems are typically in the interior and northern metallogenic belts, whereas the younger porphyry systems are predominantly found in the southern third of the state, closer to the modern continental margin. Alaska porphyry formation peaked in the mid-Cretaceous and continued through the Late Cretaceous to Tertiary, in association with continental-margin arcs extending from the eastern interior, into southwest Alaska and along the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutian Islands. Porphyry system formation is not generally recognized in the Early Cretaceous, Triassic, or early Paleozoic – time periods that coincide with continental collisional events or extension. Relatively few pre-accretionary porphyry systems are documented in more deeply exhumed arc segments due to low preservation potential in areas of rapid or repeated bedrock uplift and associated erosion that occurred during later tectonic events. Significant diversity is observed in porphyry occurrences across the state and even within the same region. Occurrences form in association with arc-related intrusions or intrusive complexes, that range in composition from diorite to syenite, but are commonly monzonitic to granitic. Some porphyry occurrences are associated with alkaline intrusive belts that exhibit a stronger crustal contribution to magmatic sources. Intrusions associated with porphyry formation in Alaska are commonly moderately oxidized, however, a distinct group of porphyry systems are associated with more-reduced magmas. Hydrothermal alteration described at many occurrences exhibits zoning from proximal potassic alteration to typically peripheral and(or) later sericitic alteration, that is flanked by large zones of propylitic alteration. Diversity in alteration is observed where sodic and sodic-calcic alteration is present, commonly in more-enigmatic deposits, such as Island Mountain and Chicken Mountain. Advanced argillic alteration is rare, but present in notable examples, such as the Pebble porphyry Cu(-Au-Mo) deposit. Sulfide mineralization is characterized by pyrite, chalcopyrite, molybdenite, and rare bornite hosted in veinlets, veins and disseminations in wallrocks and causative intrusions. Some porphyry systems contain abundant pyrrhotite and(or) arsenopyrite in the mineral assemblages. Systems that exhibit bornite-bearing assemblages containing abundant molybdenite are commonly arsenic- and gold-poor and tend to be associated with more oxidized arc magmas. In contrast, those systems that are pyrrhotite and(or) arsenopyrite dominant tend to be gold, arsenic, and bismuth bearing, and are commonly associated with more-reduced magmas. Exploration for porphyry occurrences in Alaska has experienced a resurgence and currently constitutes about 20% of exploration dollars in the state. Many systems lack complete descriptions, and coupled with the cost of exploration, remain incompletely explored. Additional understanding of known occurrences combined with a framework geologic understanding of porphyry-bearing metallogenic belts will likely result in new discoveries in the future.

Alaska↗

A study of marine temperature variations in the northern Gulf of Alaska across years of marine heatwaves and cold spells

We use over 100 in situ and remotely sensed temperature datasets to investigate thermal variability within and across the intertidal nearshore, coastal and offshore waters of the northern Gulf of Alaska. For the years 1970 through 2019 we document a warming trend of 0.24±0.10 °C per decade for the coastal northern shelf (0-250 m depth average) and a Gulf-wide sea surface temperature (SST) trend of 0.25±0.11 °C per decade. The Gulf-wide SST trend in the last halfcentury is more than twice that of the 0.11±0.003 °C warming rate computed for 1900-2019. Decorrelation length scales vary regionally and correlation of synoptic scale fluctuations (less than one month) between two stations rapidly degrades with increasing station distance, accounting for less than 10% of the covariance for separations exceeding 100 km. In contrast, stations separated by as much as 500 km retain 50% of their covariance in common for seasonal and sub-seasonal fluctuations. While satellite-based measures often capture most of the daily SST anomaly in coastal and offshore waters, a significant portion of the variance (30-40%) can remain unresolved, even exceeding 75% in the nearshore realm. Similarly, the North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska leading modes of SST variability leave large fractions (25-50%) of the subseasonal thermal variance unresolved. These evaluations show the importance of in situ temperature records for studies that seek to understand mechanistic responses of marine organisms to habitat variability at biologically important time and space scales. We find that near-bottom temperature anomalies on the outer shelf vary inversely with surface temperatures and with near-bottom salinity, suggesting that thermal anomalies are also linked with nutrient flux anomalies. A case study of the recent Pacific marine heatwave and transition out of preceding cool years shows that the northern Gulf of Alaska surface temperatures (0-50 m) were elevated from 2014 to 2019 relative to the long-term record. Coastal temperatures warmed contemporaneously with offshore waters through the 2013 calendar year. In contrast, deep inner shelf waters (200-250 m) exhibited delayed warming relative to the surface and relative to deep waters offshore at the same depth. While offshore surface waters cooled from early 2014 into 1-2 Science Synthesis Final Report Gulf Watch Alaska, 2021 early 2016, the shelf continued to warm over this time as the effects of local air-sea and advective heat fluxes continued to permeate across the northern Gulf. These results highlight the importance of different heating mechanisms for surface and near-bottom waters across the northern Gulf of Alaska.

Alaska↗

Changing exhumation patterns during Cenozoic growth and glaciation of the Alaska Range: Insights from detrital thermochronology and geochronology

Cenozoic growth of the Alaska Range created the highest topography in North America, but the space-time pattern and drivers of exhumation are poorly constrained. We analyzed U/Pb and fission-track double dates of detrital zircon and apatite grains from 12 catchments that span a 450 km length of the Alaska Range to illuminate the timing and extent of exhumation during different periods. U/Pb ages indicate a dominant Late Cretaceous to Oligocene plutonic provenance for the detrital grains, with only a small percentage of grains recycled from the Mesozoic and Paleozoic sedimentary cover. Fission-track ages record exhumation during Alaska Range growth and incision and reveal three distinctive patterns. First, initial Oligocene exhumation was focused in the central Alaska Range at ~30 Ma and expanded outward along the entire length of the range until 18 Ma. Oligocene exhumation, coeval with initial Yakutat microplate collision >600 km to the southeast, suggests a far-field response to collision that was localized by the Denali Fault within a weak Mesozoic suture zone. Second, the variable timing of middle to late Miocene exhumation suggests independently evolving histories influenced by local structures. Time-transgressive cooling ages suggest successive rock uplift and erosion of Mounts Foraker (12 Ma) through Denali (6 Ma) as crust was advected through a restraining bend in the Denali Fault and indicate a long-term slip rate ~4 mm/yr. Third, Pliocene exhumation is synchronous (3.7–2.7 Ma) along the length of the Alaska Range but only occurs in high-relief, glacier-covered catchments. Pliocene exhumation may record an acceleration in glacial incision that was coincident with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

Alaska↗

Updating the crustal fault model for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model for Alaska

We present the crustal fault model for Alaska, based on geologic observations, as a primary input for the 2023 revision of the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model. We update the 2013 Alaska Quaternary fault and fold database to produce a simplified model of 105 fault sections and four fault zone polygons with basic geologic parameters including slip sense and rate. Significant updates include the following: (1) a slip rate of ∼53 mm/year on the Queen Charlotte Fault indicating it accommodates all of the plate boundary motion; (2) quantified slip rates on megathrust splay faults in the southern Prince William Sound region and near Kodiak Island; (3) improved details of structures in the Chugach-St. Elias orogen; (4) revision of the Castle Mountain Fault from right-lateral slip to a predominantly reverse fault; (5) improved Interior Alaska tectonic models that clarify relationships between the Denali, Totschunda, and thrust faults on both sides of the Alaska Range; (6) identified large earthquake sources in the eastern Brooks Range; and (7) omission of the Chatham Strait section of the Denali Fault. The fault model underscores that the collision of the Yakutat microplate is the dominant driver of active crustal faulting in most of Alaska.

Alaska, Yukon↗

Historical and projected trends in landscape drivers affecting carbon dynamics in Alaska

Modern climate change in Alaska has resulted in widespread thawing of permafrost, increased fire activity, and extensive changes in vegetation characteristics that have significant consequences for socioecological systems. Despite observations of the heightened sensitivity of these systems to change, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of factors that drive ecosystem changes throughout Alaska. Here we present research that improves our understanding of the main drivers of the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon dynamics using in situ observations, remote sensing data, and an array of modeling techniques. In the last 60 yr, Alaska has seen a large increase in mean annual air temperature (1.7°C), with the greatest warming occurring over winter and spring. Warming trends are projected to continue throughout the 21st century and will likely result in landscape-level changes to ecosystem structure and function. Wetlands, mainly bogs and fens, which are currently estimated to cover 12.5% of the landscape, strongly influence exchange of methane between Alaska's ecosystems and the atmosphere and are expected to be affected by thawing permafrost and shifts in hydrology. Simulations suggest the current proportion of near-surface (within 1 m) and deep (within 5 m) permafrost extent will be reduced by 9–74% and 33–55% by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Since 2000, an average of 678 595 ha/yr was burned, more than twice the annual average during 1950–1999. The largest increase in fire activity is projected for the boreal forest, which could result in a reduction in late-successional spruce forest (8–44%) and an increase in early-successional deciduous forest (25–113%) that would mediate future fire activity and weaken permafrost stability in the region. Climate warming will also affect vegetation communities across arctic regions, where the coverage of deciduous forest could increase (223–620%), shrub tundra may increase (4–21%), and graminoid tundra might decrease (10–24%). This study sheds light on the sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to change that has the potential to significantly affect local and regional carbon balance, but more research is needed to improve estimates of land-surface and subsurface properties, and to better account for ecosystem dynamics affected by a myriad of biophysical factors and interactions.

Alaska↗

The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska

It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km 2 ), are influencing and will influence state‐wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), climate, logging and fire regimes on the historical and future C balance of upland ecosystems for the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. At the end of the historical period (1950–2009) of our analysis, we estimate that upland ecosystems of Alaska store ~50 Pg C (with ~90% of the C in soils), and gained 3.26 Tg C/yr. Three of the LCCs had gains in total ecosystem C storage, while the Northwest Boreal LCC lost C (−6.01 Tg C/yr) because of increases in fire activity. Carbon exports from logging affected only the North Pacific LCC and represented less than 1% of the state's net primary production (NPP). The analysis for the future time period (2010–2099) consisted of six simulations driven by climate outputs from two climate models for three emission scenarios. Across the climate scenarios, total ecosystem C storage increased between 19.5 and 66.3 Tg C/yr, which represents 3.4% to 11.7% increase in Alaska upland's storage. We conducted additional simulations to attribute these responses to environmental changes. This analysis showed that atmospheric CO 2 fertilization was the main driver of ecosystem C balance. By comparing future simulations with constant and with increasing atmospheric CO 2 , we estimated that the sensitivity of NPP was 4.8% per 100 ppmv, but NPP becomes less sensitive to CO 2 increase throughout the 21st century. Overall, our analyses suggest that the decreasing CO 2 sensitivity of NPP and the increasing sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration to air temperature, in addition to the increase in C loss from wildfires weakens the C sink from upland ecosystems of Alaska and will ultimately lead to a source of CO 2 to the atmosphere beyond 2100. Therefore, we conclude that the increasing regional C sink we estimate for the 21st century will most likely be transitional.

Alaska↗

Assessing historical and projected carbon balance of Alaska: A synthesis of results and policy/management implications

We summarize the results of a recent interagency assessment of land carbon dynamics in Alaska, in which carbon dynamics were estimated for all major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems for the historical period (1950–2009) and a projection period (2010–2099). Between 1950 and 2009, upland and wetland (i.e., terrestrial) ecosystems of the state gained 0.4 Tg C/yr (0.1% of net primary production, NPP), resulting in a cumulative greenhouse gas radiative forcing of 1.68 × 10 −3 W/m 2 . The change in carbon storage is spatially variable with the region of the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) losing carbon because of fire disturbance. The combined carbon transport via various pathways through inland aquatic ecosystems of Alaska was estimated to be 41.3 Tg C/yr (17% of terrestrial NPP). During the projection period (2010–2099), carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska was projected to increase (22.5–70.0 Tg C/yr), primarily because of NPP increases of 10–30% associated with responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 , increased nitrogen cycling, and longer growing seasons. Although carbon emissions to the atmosphere from wildfire and wetland CH 4 were projected to increase for all of the climate projections, the increases in NPP more than compensated for those losses at the statewide level. Carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems continue to warm the climate for four of the six future projections and cool the climate for only one of the projections. The attribution analyses we conducted indicated that the response of NPP in terrestrial ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO 2 (~5% per 100 ppmv CO 2 ) saturates as CO 2 increases (between approximately +150 and +450 ppmv among projections). This response, along with the expectation that permafrost thaw would be much greater and release large quantities of permafrost carbon after 2100, suggests that projected carbon gains in terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska may not be sustained. From a national perspective, inclusion of all of Alaska in greenhouse gas inventory reports would ensure better accounting of the overall greenhouse gas balance of the nation and provide a foundation for considering mitigation activities in areas that are accessible enough to support substantive deployment.

Alaska↗

New projections of 21st century climate and hydrology for Alaska and Hawaiʻi

In the United States, high-resolution, century-long, hydroclimate projection datasets have been developed for water resources planning, focusing on the contiguous United States (CONUS) domain. However, there are few statewide hydroclimate projection datasets available for Alaska and Hawaiʻi. The limited information on hydroclimatic change motivates developing hydrologic scenarios from 1950 to 2099 using climate-hydrology impact modeling chains consisting of multiple statistically downscaled climate projections as input to hydrologic model simulations for both states. We adopt an approach similar to the previous CONUS hydrologic assessments where: 1) we select the outputs from ten global climate models (GCM) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 with Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5; 2) we perform statistical downscaling to generate climate input data for hydrologic models (12-km grid-spacing for Alaska and 1-km for Hawaiʻi); and 3) we perform process-based hydrologic model simulations. For Alaska, we have advanced the hydrologic model configuration from CONUS by using the full water-energy balance computation, frozen soils and a simple glacier model. The simulations show that robust warming and increases in precipitation produce runoff increases for most of Alaska, with runoff reductions in the currently glacierized areas in Southeast Alaska. For Hawaiʻi, we produce the projections at high resolution (1 km) which highlight high spatial variability of climate variables across the state, and a large spread of runoff across the GCMs is driven by a large precipitation spread across the GCMs. Our new ensemble datasets assist with state-wide climate adaptation and other water planning.

Alaska, Hawaii↗

Red-throated loons (Gavia stellata) breeding in Alaska, USA, are exposed to PCBs while on their Asian wintering grounds

Red-throated loons (Gavia stellata) breeding in Alaska declined 53% during 1977-1993. We compare concentrations of environmental contaminants in red-throated loons among four nesting areas in Alaska and discuss potential ramifications of exposure on reproductive success and population trends. Eggs from the four areas had similar total polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations, but eggs from the Arctic coastal plain had different congener profiles and greater toxic equivalents (TEQs) than eggs from elsewhere. Satellite telemetry data indicate that red-throated loons from the Arctic coastal plain in northern Alaska winter in southeast Asia, while those breeding elsewhere in Alaska winter in North America. Different wintering areas may lead to differential PCB accumulation among red-throated loon populations. For eggs from the Arctic coastal plain, TEQs were great enough to postulate PCB-associated reproductive effects in piscivores. The correlation between migration patterns and PCB profiles suggests that red-throated loons breeding in northern Alaska are exposed to PCBs while on their Asian wintering grounds.

Environmental Pollution↗

Permafrost-associated natural gas hydrate occurrences on the Alaska North Slope

In the 1960s Russian scientists made what was then a bold assertion that gas hydrates should occur in abundance in nature. Since this early start, the scientific foundation has been built for the realization that gas hydrates are a global phenomenon, occurring in permafrost regions of the arctic and in deep water portions of most continental margins worldwide. In 1995, the U.S. Geological Survey made the first systematic assessment of the in-place natural gas hydrate resources of the United States. That study suggested that the amount of gas in the gas hydrate accumulations of northern Alaska probably exceeds the volume of known conventional gas resources on the North Slope. Researchers have long speculated that gas hydrates could eventually become a producible energy resource, yet technical and economic hurdles have historically made gas hydrate development a distant goal. This view began to change in recent years with the realization that this unconventional resource could be developed with existing conventional oil and gas production technology. One of the most significant developments was the completion of the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well on the Alaska North Slope, which along with the Mallik project in Canada, have for the first time allowed the rational assessment of gas hydrate production technology and concepts. Almost 40 years of gas hydrate research in northern Alaska has confirmed the occurrence of at least two large gas hydrate accumulations on the North Slope. We have also seen in Alaska the first ever assessment of how much gas could be technically recovered from gas hydrates. However, significant technical concerns need to be further resolved in order to assess the ultimate impact of gas hydrate energy resource development in northern Alaska.

Alaska↗