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Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus )

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus) , an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Scientific Reports

U.S. Geological Survey assessment of reserve growth outside of the United States

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated volumes of potential additions to oil and gas reserves for the United States by reserve growth in discovered accumulations. These volumes were derived by using a new methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and reviewed by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Committee on Resource Evaluation. This methodology was used to assess reserve growth in individual accumulations (reservoirs, groups of reservoirs, or fields). Selected, large, well-studied, conventional accumulations in the United States that are estimated to contribute most to reserve growth were assessed using analysis of geology and engineering practices. Potential additions to oil and gas reserves for large, discovered, conventional accumulations outside of the United States due to reserve growth were assessed using the U.S. accumulations as analogs. Potential oil and gas volumes were assumed to be added to proven plus probable reserves. The U.S. Geological Survey estimated volumes of technically recoverable, conventional petroleum resources resulting from reserve growth for discovered fields outside the United States that have reported in-place oil and gas volumes of 500 million barrels of oil equivalent or greater. The mean volumes of reserve growth were estimated at 665 billion barrels of crude oil; 1,429 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; and 16 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. These volumes constitute a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas resources and represent the potential future growth of current global reserves over time based on better assessment methodology, new technologies, and greater understanding of reservoirs.

Scientific Investigations Report

Catchment-level estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus agricultural use from commercial fertilizer sales for the conterminous United States, 2012

Nutrient inputs from commercial agricultural fertilizer, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, are important factors contributing to the degradation of surface-water quality and the alteration of aquatic ecosystems. Despite this importance, information about the application of fertilizer to agricultural land is not available in a consistent manner across the United States at a scale useful for regional water-quality assessment. To address this need, an approach is developed to relate commercial fertilizer sales to a set of explanatory variables using spatially referenced modeling methods. Spatially referenced modeling in this study refers to statistically relating fertilizer use, estimated from commercial fertilizer sales data, to spatially referenced data on watershed attributes. Separate models for nitrogen and phosphorus are developed to estimate elemental fertilizer use on agricultural lands for the conterminous United States at the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) catchment scale for the year 2012. The approach builds on earlier efforts that use Association of American Plant Food Control Officials data on fertilizer sales to provide county-level estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use. The spatially referenced method improves on these efforts by allowing for varying nitrogen to phosphorus ratios at the catchment scale and expanding the set of variables used to allocate county-level sales data to the catchment scale. The models include catchment-level factors that are either primary determinants of fertilizer use, such as the acreage of different crop types, or measures reflecting the intensity of use, such as climate. Explanatory variables available only at the county scale, such as U.S. Department of Agriculture Census of Agriculture estimates of fertilizer expenditures, are included to improve the model predictions of elemental use. The nitrogen and phosphorus models explain more than 90 percent of the variation in elemental use at the state level, and the statistical approach allows for the estimation of uncertainty of predicted use in each catchment. The spatial patterns of model predictions reflect known agricultural cropping practices across the United States that transcend political boundaries, despite the county/state orientation of the fertilizer sales information. The results are expected to be useful for a variety of water-quality assessments that are intended to estimate nitrogen and phosphorus loads to streams.

Scientific Investigations Report

Volcano and earthquake monitoring plan for the Yellowstone Caldera system, 2022–2032

Executive Summary The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a consortium of nine Federal, State, and academic agencies that: (1) provides timely monitoring and hazards assessment of volcanic, hydrothermal, and earthquake activity in and around Yellowstone National Park, and (2) conducts research to develop new approaches to volcano monitoring and better understand volcanic activity in the Yellowstone region and elsewhere. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) arm of YVO is also responsible for monitoring and reporting on volcanic activity in the Intermountain West of the United States. The previous YVO monitoring plan for the Yellowstone region spanned 2006–2015 and focused on strengthening the region-wide coverage, or backbone, of monitoring systems (Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 2006). The goals of that plan have largely been achieved thanks to significant investments in instrumentation and infrastructure, especially by the National Science Foundation EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (now known as the Network Of The Americas, or NOTA) and the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act. This revision of the monitoring plan, covering 2022–2032, builds upon these improvements to monitoring systems in the Yellowstone region while also accounting for new insights into the dynamics of the area’s seismic, volcanic, and hydrothermal activity. These additional improvements are designed to fill gaps in the monitoring network and to better understand and track hazards associated with hydrothermal processes. These improvements include: Conversion of remaining analog seismic stations to digital, Addition of Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the vicinity of Norris Geyser Basin and other areas where changes in deformation rate and style have been observed, Implementation of continuous gas monitoring in several areas of Yellowstone National Park, and Improvements to lake, meteorological, and hydrological monitoring to better track hydrothermal activity, including that occurring on lake bottoms, and to aid in understanding of whether such activity might be influenced by external forces, like environmental conditions. The 2022–2032 monitoring plan for the Yellowstone volcanic system also proposes to improve monitoring of hydrothermal areas to better understand these dynamic systems and their associated hazards. To date, only a single seismometer has been placed within one of Yellowstone National Park’s geyser basins because seismic noise associated with boiling water can hinder interpretation of overall seismic and magmatic activity, but this concern has been mitigated by improvements to backbone monitoring. Deployment of geophysical, geochemical, hydrological, and geological monitoring instruments in geyser basins will be accompanied by campaigns to measure gas and water chemistry and flux, as well as aerial and satellite surveys of gas and thermal emissions. Close collaboration between YVO member institutions and other research agencies is needed to achieve these monitoring goals and to use the derived data to advance understanding of how Yellowstone Caldera and similar volcanic systems work. At the same time, attention must be paid to minimize the impact of monitoring efforts and infrastructure on the environment. YVO thus commits to serving as stewards of the natural, cultural, and historical resources in and around Yellowstone National Park while maximizing scientific gain for the betterment of society.

Wyoming

Status of groundwater-level altitudes and long-term groundwater-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas, 2018

Since the early 1900s, most of the groundwater withdrawals in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, have been from the three primary aquifers that compose the Gulf Coast aquifer system—the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers. Withdrawals from these aquifers are used for municipal supply, industrial, and irrigation purposes. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting the status of groundwater-level altitudes and long-term groundwater-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. This report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2018 groundwater-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2017 through March 2018) and long-term groundwater-level changes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers. In 2018, groundwater-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter referred to as “datum”) to 200 ft above datum. The 1977–2018 groundwater-level-change contours for the Chicot aquifer depict a large area of decline in groundwater-level altitudes (120 ft) in northwestern Harris County. The largest rise in groundwater-level altitudes in the Chicot aquifer from 1977 to 2018 (180 ft) was in southeastern Harris County. Groundwater-level-altitude contours for the Evangeline aquifer ranged from 250 ft below datum to 200 ft above datum in 2018. The 1977–2018 groundwater-level-change contours for the Evangeline aquifer depict broad areas where groundwater-level altitudes either declined or rose. The largest decline in groundwater-level altitudes (320 ft) was in southern Montgomery County. The largest rise in groundwater-level altitudes in the Evangeline aquifer from 1977 to 2018 (240 ft) was in southeastern Harris County. In 2018, groundwater-level-altitude contours for the Jasper aquifer ranged from 200 ft below datum to 200 ft above datum. The 2000–18 groundwater-level-change contours for the Jasper aquifer depict groundwater-level declines throughout most of the study area where groundwater-level-altitude data from the Jasper aquifer were collected, with the largest decline (200 ft) in southern Montgomery County.

Texas

Status of groundwater-level altitudes and long-term groundwater-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas, 2020

Since the early 1900s, most of the groundwater withdrawals in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, have been from the three primary aquifers that compose the Gulf Coast aquifer system—the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers. Withdrawals from these aquifers are used for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting the status of groundwater-level altitudes and long-term groundwater-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. This report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2020 groundwater-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2019 through March 2020) and long-term groundwater-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers. In 2020, groundwater-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 150 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter referred to as “datum”) to 200 ft above datum. The 1977–2020 groundwater-level-change contours for the Chicot aquifer depict a large area of decline in groundwater-level altitudes (120 ft) in northwestern Harris County. The largest rise in groundwater-level altitudes in the Chicot aquifer from 1977 to 2020 (200 ft) was in southeastern Harris County. In 2020, groundwater-level-altitude contours for the Evangeline aquifer ranged from 250 ft below datum to 200 ft above datum. The 1977–2020 groundwater-level-change contours for the Evangeline aquifer depict broad areas where groundwater-level altitudes either declined or rose. The largest decline in groundwater-level altitudes (280 ft) was in southern Montgomery and northern Harris Counties. The largest rise in groundwater-level altitudes in the Evangeline aquifer from 1977 to 2020 (240 ft) was in southeastern Harris County. In 2020, groundwater-level-altitude contours for the Jasper aquifer ranged from 200 ft below datum to 250 ft above datum. The 2000–20 groundwater-level-change contours for the Jasper aquifer depict groundwater-level declines throughout most of the study area where groundwater-level-altitude data from the Jasper aquifer were collected, with the largest decline (220 ft) in southern Montgomery County.

Texas

Predictions of elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Elk Refuge (NER) in Jackson, Wyoming, supplementally feeds Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (American bison) during winter months, but the costs and benefits of this management strategy are being reevaluated considering the potential effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) on elk. U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on a structured decision-making process that considered five alternative feeding strategies and their effects on bison, elk, and humans. This chapter focuses on elk population dynamics and CWD using computer models. Our modeling results highlight a short- versus long-term tradeoff between the continue feeding and no feeding alternatives. Management alternatives associated with a cessation of supplemental feeding were assumed to make elk more susceptible to severe winters, resulting in initially lower population sizes and less CWD transmission. The increased CWD prevalence and transmission associated with the continue feeding alternative resulted in lower elk population sizes by year 20 (mean=6,700, standard deviation=1,600 in the analysis area) in 70 percent of simulations compared to no feeding (mean=8,400, standard deviation=1,500). No feeding alternatives resulted in higher elk populations than the continue feeding alternative between years 7 and 13 when CWD prevalence exceeded 20 percent in the Jackson elk herd. The increased harvest alternative minimized CWD and natural mortality in 83 out of 100 simulations compared to the continue feeding alternative.

Wyoming

Predictions of elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Elk Refuge (NER) in Jackson, Wyoming, supplementally feeds Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (American bison) during winter months, but the costs and benefits of this management strategy are being reevaluated considering the potential effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) on elk. U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on a structured decision-making process that considered five alternative feeding strategies and their effects on bison, elk, and humans. This chapter focuses on elk population dynamics and CWD using computer models. Our modeling results highlight a short-versus long-term tradeoff between the continue feeding and no feeding alternatives. Management alternatives associated with a cessation of supplemental feeding were assumed to make elk more susceptible to severe winters, resulting in initially lower population sizes and less CWD transmission. The increased CWD prevalence and transmission associated with the continue feeding alternative resulted in lower elk population sizes by year 20 (mean=6,700, standard deviation=1,600 in the analysis area) in 70 percent of simulations compared to no feeding (mean=8,400, standard deviation=1,500). No feeding alternatives resulted in higher elk populations than the continue feeding alternative between years 7 and 13 when CWD prevalence exceeded 20 percent in the Jackson elk herd. The increased harvest alternative minimized CWD and natural mortality in 83 out of 100 simulations compared to the continue feeding alternative.

Wyoming

Status of groundwater-level altitudes and long-term groundwater-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas, 2019

Since the early 1900s, most of the groundwater withdrawals in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, have been from the three primary aquifers that compose the Gulf Coast aquifer system—the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers. Withdrawals from these aquifers are used for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting the status of groundwater-level altitudes and long-term groundwater-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. This report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2019 groundwater-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2018 through March 2019) and long-term groundwater-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers. In 2019, groundwater-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter referred to as “datum”) to 200 ft above datum. The 1977–2019 groundwater-level-change contours for the Chicot aquifer depict a large area of decline in groundwater-level altitudes (100 ft) in northwestern Harris County. The largest rise in groundwater-level altitudes in the Chicot aquifer from 1977 to 2019 (200 ft) was in southeastern Harris County. In 2019, groundwater-level-altitude contours for the Evangeline aquifer ranged from 300 ft below datum to 200 ft above datum. The 1977–2019 groundwater-level-change contours for the Evangeline aquifer depict broad areas where groundwater-level altitudes either declined or rose. The largest decline in groundwater-level altitudes (280 ft) was in southern Montgomery and northern Harris Counties. The largest rise in groundwater-level altitudes in the Evangeline aquifer from 1977 to 2019 (240 ft) was in southeastern Harris County. In 2019, groundwater-level-altitude contours for the Jasper aquifer ranged from 200 ft below datum to 250 ft above datum. The 2000–19 groundwater-level-change contours for the Jasper aquifer depict groundwater-level declines throughout most of the study area where groundwater-level-altitude data from the Jasper aquifer were collected, with the largest decline (200 ft) in southern Montgomery County.

Texas

Seepage investigation of the Rio Grande from below Leasburg Dam, Leasburg, New Mexico, to above American Dam, El Paso, Texas, 2014

Seepage investigations have been conducted annually by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1988 to 1998 and from 2004 to the present (2014) along a 64-mile reach of the Rio Grande from below Leasburg Dam, Leasburg, New Mexico, to above American Dam, El Paso, Texas, as part of the Mesilla Basin monitoring program. Results of the investigation conducted in 2014 are presented in this report. The 2014 seepage investigation was conducted on February 11, 2014, during the low-flow conditions of the non-irrigation season. During the 2014 investigation, discharge was measured at 23 sites along the main-stem Rio Grande and 19 inflow sites within the study reach. Because of extended drought conditions affecting the basin, many sites along the Rio Grande (17 main-stem and 9 inflow) were observed to be dry in February 2014. Water-quality samples were collected during the seepage investigation at sites with flowing water as part of a long-term monitoring effort in the region. Net seepage gain or loss was computed for each subreach (the interval between two adjacent measurement locations along the river) by subtracting the discharge measured at the upstream location from the discharge measured at the closest downstream location along the river and then subtracting any inflow to the river within the subreach. An estimated gain or loss was determined to be meaningful when it exceeded the cumulative measurement uncertainty associated with the net seepage computation. The cumulative seepage loss in the 64-mile study reach in 2014 was 16.0 plus or minus 2.9 cubic feet per second.

New Mexico, Texas

Precambrian crystalline basement map of Idaho: An interpretation of aeromagnetic anomalies

Idaho lies within the northern sector of the U.S. Cordillera astride the boundary between the Proterozoic continent (Laurentia) to the east and the Permian to Jurassic accreted terranes to the west. The continental basement is mostly covered by relatively undeformed Mesoproterozoic metasedimentary rocks and intruded or covered by Phanerozoic igneous rocks; accordingly, knowledge of the basement geology is poorly constrained. Incremental knowledge gained since the pioneering studies by W. Lindgren, C.P. Ross, A.L. Anderson, A. Hietanen, and others during the early- and mid-1900's has greatly advanced our understanding of the general geology of Idaho. However, knowledge of the basement geology remains relatively poor, partly because of the remoteness of much of the region plus the lack of a stimulus to decipher the complex assemblage of high-grade gneisses and migmatite of central Idaho. The availability of an updated aeromagnetic anomaly map of Idaho (North American Magnetic Anomaly Group, 2002) provides a means to determine the regional Precambrian geologic framework of the State. The combined geologic and aeromagnetic data permit identification of previously unrecognized crystalline basement terranes, assigned to Archean and Paleoproterozoic ages, and the delineation of major shear zones, which are expressed in the aeromagnetic data as linear negative anomalies (Finn and Sims, 2004). Limited geochronologic data on exposed crystalline basement aided by isotopic studies of zircon inheritance, particularly Bickford and others (1981) and Mueller and others (1995), provide much of the geologic background for our interpretation of the basement geology. In northwestern United States, inhomogeneities in the basement inherited from Precambrian tectogenesis controlled many large-scale tectonic features that developed during the Phanerozoic. Two basement structures, in particular, provided zones of weakness that were repeatedly rejuvenated: (1) northeast-trending ductile shear zones developed on the northwest margin of the Archean Wyoming province during the Paleoproterozoic Trans-Montana orogeny (Sims and others, 2004), and (2) northwest-trending intra-continental faults of the Mesoproterozoic Trans-Rocky Mountain strike-slip fault system (Sims, unpub. data, 2003). In this report, geologic ages are reported in millions of years (Ma) and generalized ages are given in billions of years (Ga). The subdivision of Precambrian rocks used herein is the time classification recommended by the International Union of Geological Sciences (Plumb, 1991).

Idaho

Hydrology of the Claiborne aquifer and interconnection with the Upper Floridan aquifer in southwest Georgia

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study, in cooperation with the Georgia Environmental Protection Division, to define the hydrologic properties of the Claiborne aquifer and evaluate its connection with the Upper Floridan aquifer in southwest Georgia. The effort involved collecting and compiling hydrologic data from the aquifer in subarea 4 of southwestern Georgia. Data collected for this study include borehole geophysical logs in 7 wells, and two 72-hour aquifer tests to determine aquifer properties. The top of the Claiborne aquifer extends from an altitude of about 200 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) in Terrell County to 402 feet below NAVD 88 in Decatur County, Georgia. The base of the aquifer extends from an altitude of about 60 feet above NAVD 88 in eastern Sumter County to about 750 feet below NAVD 88 in Decatur County. Aquifer thickness ranges from about 70 feet in eastern Early County to 400 feet in Decatur County. The transmissivity of the Claiborne aquifer, determined from two 72-hour aquifer tests, was estimated to be 1,500 and 700 feet squared per day in Mitchell and Early Counties, respectively. The storage coefficient was estimated to be 0.0006 and 0.0004 for the same sites, respectively. Aquifer test data from Mitchell County indicate a small amount of leakage occurred during the test. Groundwater-flow models suggest that the source of the leakage was the underlying Clayton aquifer, which produced about 2.5 feet of drawdown in response to pumping in the Claiborne aquifer. The vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining unit between the Claiborne and Clayton aquifers was simulated to be about 0.02 foot per day. Results from the 72-hour aquifer tests run for this study indicated no interconnection between the Claiborne and overlying Upper Floridan aquifers at the two test sites. Additional data are needed to monitor the effects that increased withdrawals from the Claiborne aquifer may have on future water resources.

Georgia

Guidebook of the western United States: Part E - The Denver & Rio Grande Western route

The United States of America comprise an area so vast in extent and so diverse in natural features as well as in characters due to human agency that the American citizen who knows thoroughly his own country must have traveled widely and observed wisely. To 'know America first' is a patriotic obligation, but to meet this obligation the railroad traveler needs to have his eyes directed toward the more important or essential things within his field of vision and then to have much that he sees explained by what is unseen in the swift passage of the train. Indeed, many things that attract his attention are inexplicable except as the story of the past is available to enable him to interpret the present. Herein lie the value and the charm of history, whether human or geologic. The present stimulus given to travel in the home country will encourage many thousands of Americans to study geography at first hand. To make this study most profitable the traveler needs a handbook that will answer the questions that come to his mind so readily along the way. Furthermore, the aim of such a guide should be to stimulate the eye in the selection of the essentials in the scene that so rapidly unfolds itself in the crossing of the continent. In recognition of the opportunity to render service of this kind to an unusually large number of American citizens, as well as to visitors from other countries, the United States Geological Survey has published a series of guidebooks covering four of the older railroad routes west of the Mississippi. The present volume is an addition to this series and covers one of the finest scenic routes of the continent. These books are educational in purpose, but the method adopted is to entertain the traveler by making more interesting what he sees from the car window. The plan of the series is to present authoritative information that may enable the reader to realize adequately the scenic and material resources of the region he is traversing, to comprehend correctly the basis of its development, and above all to appreciate keenly the real value of the country he looks out upon, not as so many square miles of territory represented on the map in a railroad folder by meaningless spaces, but rather as land - real estate, if you please - varying widely in present appearance because differing largely in its history, and characterized by even greater variation in values because possessing diversified natural resources. One region may be such as to afford a livelihood for only a pastoral people; another may present opportunity for intensive agriculture; still another may contain hidden stores of mineral wealth that may attract large industrial development; and, taken together, these varied resources afford, the promise of long-continued prosperity for this or that State. Items of interest in civic development or references to significant epochs in the record of discovery and settlement may be interspersed. with explanations of mountain and valley or statements of geologic history. In a broad way the story of the West is a unit, and every chapter should be told in order to meet fully the needs of the tourist who aims to understand all that he sees. To such a traveler-reader this series of guidebooks is addressed. To this interpretation of our own country the United States Geological Survey brings the accumulated data of decades of pioneering investigation, and the present contribution is only one type of return to the public which has supported this scientific work under the Federal Government - a by-product of research. In the preparation of the description of the country traversed by the Denver & Rio Grande Western Route the geographic and geologic information already published as well as unpublished material in the possession of the Geological Survey has been utilized, but to supplement this material Mr. Campbell made a field examination of the entire route in 1915-1916. Information has been furnished by others,

Bulletin

The glacial anticyclone theory examined in the light of recent meteorological data from Greenland—Part I

The glacial anticyclone theory, which William H. Hobbs propounded in 1910, is today still the only definitely formulated theory concerning the atmospheric movements that take place over an ice sheet of large extent. It stands chiefly on deductive grounds and contains several features that to climatologists as well as to glaciologists have always seemed questionable. Aside from the need of its verification for scientific reasons, there is now also urgent practical need for reliable information about the weather conditions that prevail over the ice sheet of Greenland, for Greenland lies athwart several of the great air routes of the future. In this paper, accordingly, the glacial anticyclone theory is first analyzed and then confronted with the facts of observation that are now at hand, especially those reported from the fixed meteorological stations which were maintained in the interior of Greenland during the 1930s. In this, the first part of the paper, the meteorological data from the Eismitte station of the German Wegener Expedition are reviewed. The second part will cover the areological data of that expedition and the similar material from the other ice‐cap stations. The conclusions reached are that there is no evidence of a virtually permanent “glacial anticyclone” centered over the Greenland ice sheet. On the contrary, there is consistent evidence from all parts of Greenland that the weather over the ice sheet is controlled by alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic movements. Cyclonic activity is most intense in southern Greenland and weakest in northern Greenland. The entire ice sheet is supplied with snow brought by rising maritime air masses, not by air descending from the upper troposphere. Aviators need not expect so much as a fifty‐fifty chance of meeting with good weather on flights across central Greenland, except for a few weeks in midsummer.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

County-level estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus from commercial fertilizer for the Conterminous United States, 1987-2006

The U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment program requires nutrient input for analysis of the national and regional assessment of water quality. Detailed information on nutrient inputs to the environment are needed to understand and address the many serious problems that arise from excess nutrients in the streams and groundwater of the Nation. This report updates estimated county-level farm and nonfarm nitrogen and phosphorus input from commercial fertilizer sales for the conterminous United States for 1987 through 2006. Estimates were calculated from the Association of American Plant Food Control Officials fertilizer sales data, Census of Agriculture fertilizer expenditures, and U.S. Census Bureau county population. A previous national approach for deriving farm and nonfarm fertilizer nutrient estimates was evaluated, and a revised method for selecting representative states to calculate national farm and nonfarm proportions was developed. A national approach was used to estimate farm and nonfarm fertilizer inputs because not all states distinguish between farm and nonfarm use, and the quality of fertilizer reporting varies from year to year. For states that distinguish between farm and nonfarm use, the spatial distribution of the ratios of nonfarm-to-total fertilizer estimates for nitrogen and phosphorus calculated using the national-based farm and nonfarm proportions were similar to the spatial distribution of the ratios generated using state-based farm and nonfarm proportions. In addition, the relative highs and lows in the temporal distribution of farm and nonfarm nitrogen and phosphorus input at the state level were maintained—the periods of high and low usage coincide between national- and state-based values. With a few exceptions, nonfarm nitrogen estimates were found to be reasonable when compared to the amounts that would result if the lawn application rates recommended by state and university agricultural agencies were used. Also, states with higher nonfarm-to-total fertilizer ratios for nitrogen and phosphorus tended to have higher urban land-use percentages.

Scientific Investigations Report

Seepage investigation of the Rio Grande from below Leasburg Dam, Leasburg, New Mexico, to above American Dam, El Paso, Texas, 2015

Seepage investigations have been conducted annually by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1988 to 1998 and from 2004 to the present (2015) along a 64-mile reach of the Rio Grande from below Leasburg Dam, Leasburg, New Mexico, to above American Dam, El Paso, Texas, as part of the Mesilla Basin monitoring program. Results of the investigation conducted in 2015 are presented in this report. The 2015 seepage investigation was conducted on February 10, 2015, during the low-flow conditions of the non-irrigation season. During the 2015 investigation, discharge was measured at 23 sites along the main-stem Rio Grande and 19 inflow sites within the study reach. Because of extended drought conditions affecting the basin, many sites along the Rio Grande (17 main-stem and 10 inflow) were observed to be dry in February 2015. Net seepage gain or loss was computed for each subreach (the interval between two adjacent measurement locations along the river) by subtracting the discharge measured at the upstream location from the discharge measured at the closest downstream location along the river and then subtracting any inflow to the river within the subreach. An estimated gain or loss was determined to be meaningful when it exceeded the cumulative measurement uncertainty associated with the net seepage computation. The cumulative seepage loss in the 64-mile study reach in 2015 was 17.3 plus or minus 2.6 cubic feet per second. Gaining and losing reaches identified in this investigation generally correspond to seepage patterns observed in previous investigations conducted during dry years, with the gaining reaches occurring primarily at the southern (downstream) end of the basin.

Rio Grande

Estimates of food consumption rates for invasive Blue Catfish

As a prolific invasive species, Blue Catfish Ictalurus furcatus threaten native organisms in numerous estuarine and tidal freshwaters along the Atlantic coast of the United States. However, no published estimates of consumption rates are available for Blue Catfish in the scientific literature. This information is critical for development of bioenergetics models or estimation of population‐level impacts on native species. Using a combination of field and laboratory studies, we provide the first estimates of daily ration, maximum daily ration, and consumption to biomass ratios for Blue Catfish populations. Ad libitum feeding trials conducted in our laboratory reveal that maximum daily ration in Blue Catfish varies by prey type, temperature, and fish size, with maximal feeding occurring in medium‐sized Blue Catfish (500–600 mm total length) and at temperatures ≥15°C. Furthermore, estimates of daily ration were higher for fish prey (Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum ) than for crustacean prey (blue crab Callinectes sapidus ). Diel feeding chronologies based on field‐collected diet samples from 1,226 Blue Catfish demonstrated river‐specific variability in daily ration and maximum daily ration. Blue Catfish daily ration ranged between 2.27% and 5.22% bodyweight per 24 h, while maximum daily ration ranges between 8.56% and 9.37% bodyweight per 24 h. Estimates of consumption to biomass ratios varied by river and Blue Catfish size groupings but range between 2.42 and 3.39, which is similar to other benthic omnivores. This research will inform the assessment of predatory impacts of invasive Blue Catfish in the Chesapeake Bay and beyond as it will enable researchers to estimate predatory impacts through the coupling of population models, food habit information, and consumption rate information (current study).

Virginia

Systematic studies of Oryzomyine rodents (Muridae, Sigmodontinae): diagnoses and distributions of species formerly assigned to Oryzomys 'capito'

We describe the morphological species-boundaries and geographic distributions of ten Neotropical Oryzomys based on analyses of museum specimens (skins and skulls, examples preserved in fluid, chromosomal spreads, and information about collection sites from skin tags, field catalogs, and other sources). These species have been regarded as members of an Oryzomys capito complex and for a long time were consolidated into a single entity identified as O. capito. Our study documents the following: 1. Defining the limits of species within the O. capito complex first requires a comprehensive review and rigorous definition of O. capito itself. We consider Fischer's (1814) Mus megacephalus to be valid and available, designate a neotype to bear the name, and reinstate it as a senior synonym of capito Olfers (1818). We then provide a working definition of O. megacephalus and its close relative, O. laticeps, derived from analyses of morphometric variation, estimates of geographic distributions, and evaluations of synonyms. In our view, O. megacephalus occurs in Amazonia but also extends into eastern Paraguay; its synonyms are capito Olfers (1818), cephalotes Desmarest (1819), velutinus Allen and Chapman (1893), goeldi Thomas (1897), modestus Allen (1899), and perenensis Allen (1901). Oryzomys laticeps Lund (1840) occurs in the Atlantic Forest region of eastern Brazil. We designate a lectotype for laticeps and allocate the names saltator Winge (1887) and oniscus Thomas (1904) as synonyms. 2. We provide the first comprehensive taxonomic revision of Oryzomys yunganus Thomas (1902). Its range covers tropical evergreen rainforest formations in the Guiana region and the Amazon Basin where, as documented by voucher specimens, it has been collected at the same localities as O. megacephalus, O. nitidus, and O. tern of carotid arterial circulation, occlusal patterns of second upper and lower molars, cranial proportions, and chromosomal features. Appreciable intraspecific geographic variation occurs in diploid number of chromosomes and frequency of occurrence of the hypothenar plantar pad, but sampling inadequacies obscure the significance of this variation. Large body size is characteristic of populations in the western Amazon Basin and in the tepui region of eastern Venezuela; smaller size characterizes populations in the Guianas and along the eastern margin of the Amazon Basin. No other scientific name has been correctly associated with the species. Samples from Mirador, Palmera, and Mera in the western Andean foothills of central Ecuador possess a combination of pelage, cranial, and dental traits that distinguish them from all samples of O. yunganus. These specimens are the basis for a new species we describe here, one that is more closely related to O. yunganus than to any other member of the former O. 'capito' complex. 3. We redescribe Oryzomys bolivaris (reviewed by Pine, 1971, under the name O. bombycinus), amplify its geographic range, and contrast it with O. talamancae and O. alfaroi, two sympatric congeners often confused with it. A distinctive set of morphological traits allows unambiguous identification of specimens belonging to O. bolivaris. It is a trans-Andean species recorded from very wet tropical evergreen rainforests extending from eastern Honduras and Nicaragua through Costa Rica and Panama to western Colombia and Ecuador. Allen's (1901) bolivaris is the oldest name for this species; castaneus Allen (1901), rivularis Allen (1901), bombycinus Goldman (1912), alleni Goldman (1915), and orinus Pearson (1939) are synonyms. 4. We revise the definition of Oryzomys talamancae Allen (1891) provided by Musser and Williams (1985), document additional specimens, describe karyotypes from Ecuadoran and Venezuelan samples, and contrast its morphology, chromosomes, and distribution with those of O. alfaroi and O. megacephalus. The geographic distribution of O. talamancae is also trans-Andean, but it inh

Bulletin of the American Museum of Natural History