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At least 379 records · Page 21Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Learning from real-world experience to understand renewable energy impacts to wildlife

The project team sought to use real-world data to understand adverse effects to wildlife of renewable energy production that is critical to meeting California’s climate and clean energy goals. The project had three main components. First, a systematic literature review studied 20 peer-reviewed publications and 612 reports from other nonreviewed sources from 231 wind and solar facilities in North America. Within California, 50 percent of facilities collected pre- and post-construction data, 30 percent had experimental study designs, and fewer than 7 percent estimated detection probability during habitat use surveys. Mitigation at wind power plants focused on repowering to reduce risk to soaring birds and at solar facilities emphasized wildlife deterrence and compensatory mitigation. Second, the authors developed a best-practices approach to employ environmental isotopes (for example, hydrogen obtained from animal tissue) and rescaling functions (a statistical approach to modeling the relationship between variables) to assign individual birds or bats to their place of origin. The team applied this approach to feathers from 411 individuals of 12 species killed at wind facilities and 515 individuals of 19 species killed at solar facilities. From 24 percent to 100 percent (mean +/- SD = 49 percent +/- 33 percent) and 25 percent to 100 percent (73 percent +/- 25 percent) of birds grew feathers at a location outside the collection site at wind and solar facilities, respectively. Third, the authors constructed Bayesian integrated population models (probability models) for 29 focal species affected by wind or solar energy generation in California. Species predominantly local in origin generally had lower population growth rates than did species that were predominantly nonlocal in origin. These patterns illustrate the complex linkages between behavioral ecology, vulnerability to mortality, and population-level impacts to wildlife from fatalities at renewable energy facilities. This project benefits the renewable energy sector by providing a framework and specific tools for understanding environmental impacts of renewable energy generation.

California↗

USGS2019

Repatriated desert bighorn sheep population on the Nevada National Security Site

Ecological studies have been conducted on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) since the 1960s. Desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ) were considered rare visitors on the NNSS, with only 9 recorded observations between 1963 and 2009, all of which were males. Females and young were not documented definitively until winter 2011, when several were killed by a radiomarked female mountain lion ( Puma concolor ). Following these observations, we initiated a study of desert bighorn sheep on the NNSS to better understand their movements/interactions with other populations, prevalence of disease, population size, origin, radionuclide burdens and potential radiological dose to humans that may consume harvested animals away from the NNSS. We captured and radiomarked 6 sheep (2 females, 4 males) in November 2015, and 15 (7 females, 8 males) in November 2016. We sampled blood for genetic and disease testing and collected nasal swabs for respiratory disease testing. Sheep from the NNSS spent most of their time around Shoshone Mountain, Fortymile Canyon, and Yucca Mountain but also moved to Bare Mountain, Thirsty Canyon, and Black Mountain. Females greatly expanded their core and overall home ranges during spring, whereas males expanded their home ranges during summer. Of 18 sheep sampled for disease, 12 showed an immune response to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae , and 5 had the bacteria present. Genetic testing revealed that the ancestry of NNSS sheep is from the Bare Mountain (1991-1995, within 24 km of our study area), Specter Range (1990-1995, within 32 km of our study area), and Stonewall Mountain (1975-1983, within 72 km of our study area) reintroduced populations. Radionuclide burden in NNSS sheep was minimal with no significant difference from sheep captured on the Nevada Test and Training Range and northern Nevada. One marked adult male was legally harvested off the NNSS north of Bare Mountain. This recently colonized reproducing population of sheep on the NNSS warrants further monitoring, protection, and inclusion in resource management plans.

Nevada↗

USGS2021

Carrying capacity of spatially distributed metapopulations

Carrying capacity is a key concept in ecology. A body of theory, based on the logistic equation, has extended predictions of carrying capacity to spatially distributed, dispersing populations. However, this theory has only recently been tested empirically. The experimental results disagree with some theoretical predictions of when they are extended to a population dispersing randomly in a two-patch system. However, they are consistent with a mechanistic model of consumption on an exploitable resource (consumer–resource model). We argue that carrying capacity, defined as the total equilibrium population, is not a fundamental property of ecological systems, at least in the context of spatial heterogeneity. Instead, it is an emergent property that depends on the population’s intrinsic growth and dispersal rates.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS1998

A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Intact landscape promotes gene flow and low genetic structuring in the threatened Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake

Genetic structuring of wild populations is dependent on environmental, ecological, and life-history factors. The specific role environmental context plays in genetic structuring is important to conservation practitioners working with rare species across areas with varying degrees of fragmentation. We investigated fine-scale genetic patterns of the federally threatened Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake ( Sistrurus catenatus ) on a relatively undisturbed island in northern Michigan, USA. This species often persists in habitat islands throughout much of its distribution due to extensive habitat loss and distance-limited dispersal. We found that the entire island population exhibited weak genetic structuring with spatially segregated variation in effective migration and genetic diversity. The low level of genetic structuring contrasts with previous studies in the southern part of the species’ range at comparable fine scales (~7 km), in which much higher levels of structuring were documented. The island population's genetic structuring more closely resembles that of populations from Ontario, Canada, that occupy similarly intact habitats. Intrapopulation variation in effective migration and genetic diversity likely corresponds to the presence of large inland lakes acting as barriers and more human activity in the southern portion of the island. The observed genetic structuring in this intact landscape suggests that the Eastern Massasauga is capable of sufficient interpatch movements to reduce overall genetic structuring and colonize new habitats. Landscape mosaics with multiple habitat patches and localized barriers (e.g., large water bodies or roads) will promote gene flow and natural colonization for this declining species.

Michigan↗

USGS2017

A new parameterization for integrated population models to document amphibian reintroductions

Managers are increasingly implementing reintroduction programs as part of a global effort to alleviate amphibian declines. Given uncertainty in factors affecting populations and a need to make recurring decisions to achieve objectives, adaptive management is a useful component of these efforts. A major impediment to the estimation of demographic rates often used to parameterize and refine decision-support models is that life-stage-specific monitoring data are frequently sparse for amphibians. We developed a new parameterization for integrated population models to match the ecology of amphibians and capitalize on relatively inexpensive monitoring data to document amphibian reintroductions. We evaluate the capability of this model by fitting it to Oregon spotted frog ( Rana pretiosa ) monitoring data collected from 2007 to 2014 following their reintroduction within the Klamath Basin, Oregon, USA. The number of egg masses encountered and the estimated adult and metamorph abundances generally increased following reintroduction. We found that survival probability from egg to metamorph ranged from 0.01 in 2008 to 0.09 in 2009 and was not related to minimum spring temperatures, metamorph survival probability ranged from 0.13 in 2010–2011 to 0.86 in 2012–2013 and was positively related to mean monthly temperatures (logit-scale slope = 2.37), adult survival probability was lower for founders (0.40) than individuals recruited after reintroduction (0.56), and the mean number of egg masses per adult female was 0.74. Our study is the first to test hypotheses concerning Oregon spotted frog egg-to-metamorph and metamorph-to-adult transition probabilities in the wild and document their response at multiple life stages following reintroduction. Furthermore, we provide an example to illustrate how the structure of our integrated population model serves as a useful foundation for amphibian decision-support models within adaptive management programs. The integration of multiple, but related, data sets has an advantage of being able to estimate complex ecological relationships across multiple life stages, offering a modeling framework that accommodates uncertainty, enforces parsimony, and ensures all model parameters can be confronted with monitoring data.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2007

Developing methods to assess and predict the population and community level effects of environmental contaminants

The field of ecological toxicity seems largely to have drifted away from what its title implies—assessing and predicting the ecological consequences of environmental contaminants—moving instead toward an emphasis on individual effects and physiologic case studies. This paper elucidates how a relatively new ecological methodology, interaction assessment (INTASS), could be useful in addressing the field's initial goals. Specifically, INTASS is a model platform and methodology, applicable across a broad array of taxa and habitat types, that can be used to construct population dynamics models from field data. Information on environmental contaminants and multiple stressors can be incorporated into these models in a form that bypasses the problems inherent in assessing uptake, chemical interactions in the environment, and synergistic effects in the organism. INTASS can, therefore, be used to evaluate the effects of contaminants and other stressors at the population level and to predict how changes in stressor levels or composition of contaminant mixtures, as well as various mitigation measures, might affect population dynamics.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS2012

USGS Zebra Mussel Monitoring Program for north Texas

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Zebra Mussel Monitoring Program for north Texas provides early detection and monitoring of zebra mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha ) by using a holistic suite of detection methods. The program is designed to assess zebra mussel occurrence, distribution, and densities in north Texas waters by using four approaches: (1) SCUBA diving, (2) water-sample collection with plankton tow nets (followed by laboratory analyses), (3) artificial substrates, and (4) water-quality sampling. Data collected during this type of monitoring can assist rapid response efforts and can be used to quantify the economic and ecological effects of zebra mussels in the north Texas area. Monitoring under this program began in April 2010. The presence of large zebra mussel populations often causes undesirable economic and ecological effects, including damage to water-processing infrastructure and hydroelectric powerplants (with an estimated 10-year cost of $3.1 billion), displacement of native mussels, increases in concentrations of certain species of cyanobacteria, and increases in concentrations of geosmin (an organic compound that results in taste and odor issues in water). Since no large-scale, environmentally safe eradication method has been developed for zebra mussels, it is difficult to remove established populations. Broad physicochemical adaptability, prolific reproductive capacity, and rapid dispersal methods have enabled zebra mussels, within a period of about 20 years, to establish populations under differing environmental conditions across much of the eastern part of the United States. In Texas, the presence of zebra mussels was first confirmed in April 2009 in Lake Texoma in the Red River Basin along the Texas-Oklahoma border. They were most likely introduced into Lake Texoma through overland transport from an infested water body. Since then, the presence of zebra mussels has been reported in both the Red River and Washita River arms of Lake Texoma, in Sister Grove Creek, and in Ray Roberts Lake. Water managers tasked with supplying the 6.6 million residents of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area must ensure that the area receives a continuous supply of water that meets both the needs of the current (2012) and the projected (doubling in number by 2050) populations. This metropolitan area depends on surface water captured in area reservoirs, including those in the Trinity River Basin, for the primary source of drinking water. The presence of an established zebra mussel population in a reservoir in the Trinity River Basin could result in increased operations and maintenance costs for water resource managers and could potentially serve as a source population leading to further expansion of this aquatic nuisance species.

Oklahoma County, Texas County↗

USGS2003

SAS procedures for designing and analyzing sample surveys

Complex surveys often are necessary to estimate occurrence (or distribution), density, and abundance of plants and animals for purposes of re-search and conservation. Most scientists are familiar with simple random sampling, where sample units are selected from a population of interest (sampling frame) with equal probability. However, the goal of ecological surveys often is to make inferences about populations over large or complex spatial areas where organisms are not homogeneously distributed or sampling frames are in-convenient or impossible to construct. Candidate sampling strategies for such complex surveys include stratified,multistage, and adaptive sampling (Thompson 1992, Buckland 1994).

Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America↗

USGS2025

Meta-analysis of a megafish: Assessing patterns and predictors of Alligator Gar movement across multiple populations

Background Freshwater megafishes are among some of the most commercially and ecologically important aquatic organisms yet are disproportionately threatened with range and population reduction. Anthropogenic alterations of rivers influencing migrations are among the most significant causes for these declines. However, migratory fishes do not always respond similarly to movement barriers and thus it is necessary to develop models to predict movements of freshwater migratory fishes in the face of anthropogenic alteration. Predicting movement of freshwater fishes is often investigated using statistical packages. However, empirical studies assessing these packages have led to mixed results, questioning its applicability to all taxa. We argue that spatial, temporal, and environmental attributes are more influential for movement of a migratory megafish, the Alligator Gar ( Atractosteus spatula ), than the current parameters explored in a globally relevant fish movement model. Methods This study explored two independent mobile telemetry datasets investigating Alligator Gar movement on the Brazos and Trinity rivers. Environmental associations were investigated to predict Alligator Gar displacement and dispersal using generalized additive models, generalized linear models, and model selection. Leptokurtosis of Alligator Gar populations was also assessed. Predictability of the movement model was tested by comparing observed to model derived stationary and mobile components making up a leptokurtic movement distribution. Results Our study suggests that current and antecedent measures of discharge and water temperature are positively correlated with Alligator Gar displacement and dispersal. However, these patterns are only detectable when monthly relocation intervals are explored rather than seasonal scales. Leptokurtosis was observed in both Alligator Gar populations. However, movement was normally distributed (i.e., mesokurtic) under tracking events following high flood pulses. Additionally, predicted Alligator Gar movement was significantly farther under modeled values compared to observed values, in part because the species undergoes cyclical migrations for reproduction that are sensitive to water temperature and discharge. Discussion In conclusion, this study provides an alternative framework to assess the movement patterns of migratory fishes, which could be tested on additional freshwater fishes, and suggests that assessing spatial, environmental, and temporal processes simultaneously are necessary to capture the complexities of fish movement which currently are unavailable for the movement model we investigated.

Texas↗

USGS2021

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward‐moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold‐sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical–temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape‐scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical–temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change‐induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2017

Divergent migration within lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) populations: Multiple distinct patterns exist across an unrestricted migration corridor

Population structure, distribution, abundance, and dispersal arguably underpin the entire field of animal ecology, with consequences for regional species persistence, and provision of ecosystem services. Divergent migration behaviours among individuals or among populations is an important aspect of the ecology of highly-mobile animals, allowing populations to exploit spatially- or temporally-distributed food and space resources. This study investigated the spatial ecology of lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) within the barrier free Huron-Erie Corridor (HEC), which connects Lake Huron and Lake Erie of the North American Laurentian Great Lakes. Over six years (2011 – 2016), movements of 268 lake sturgeon in the HEC were continuously monitored across the Great Lakes using acoustic telemetry (10 yr battery life acoustic transmitters). Five distinct migration behaviours were identified with hierarchical cluster analysis, based on the phenology and duration of river and lake use. Lake sturgeon in the HEC were found to contain a high level of intraspecific divergent migration, including partial migration with the existence of residents. Specific behaviours included year-round river residency and multiple lake-migrant behaviours that involved movements between lakes and rivers. Over 85% of individuals were assign to migration behaviours as movements were consistently repeated over the study, which suggested migration behaviours were consistent and persistent in lake sturgeon. Differential use of specific rivers or lakes by acoustic-tagged lake sturgeon further subdivided individuals into 14 “contingents” (spatiotemporally segregated subgroups). Contingents associated with one river (Detroit or St. Clair) were rarely detected in the other river, which confirmed that lake sturgeon in the Detroit and St. Clair represent two semi-independent populations that could require separate management consideration for their conservation. The distribution of migration behaviours did not vary between populations, sexes, body size, or among release locations, which indicated that intrapopulation variability in migratory behaviour is a general feature of the spatial ecology of lake sturgeon in un-fragmented landscapes.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2009

Trend estimation in populations with imperfect detection

1. Trends of animal populations are of great interest in ecology but cannot be directly observed owing to imperfect detection. Binomial mixture models use replicated counts to estimate abundance, corrected for detection, in demographically closed populations. Here, we extend these models to open populations and illustrate them using sand lizard Lacerta agilis counts from the national Dutch reptile monitoring scheme. 2. Our model requires replicated counts from multiple sites in each of several periods, within which population closure is assumed. Counts are described by a hierarchical generalized linear model, where the state model deals with spatio-temporal patterns in true abundance and the observation model with imperfect counts, given that true state. We used WinBUGS to fit the model to lizard counts from 208 transects with 1–10 (mean 3) replicate surveys during each spring 1994–2005. 3. Our state model for abundance contained two independent log-linear Poisson regressions on year for coastal and inland sites, and random site effects to account for unexplained heterogeneity. The observation model for detection of an individual lizard contained effects of region, survey date, temperature, observer experience and random survey effects. 4. Lizard populations increased in both regions but more steeply on the coast. Detectability increased over the first few years of the study, was greater on the coast and for the most experienced observers, and highest around 1 June. Interestingly, the population increase inland was not detectable when the observed counts were analysed without account of detectability. The proportional increase between 1994 and 2005 in total lizard abundance across all sites was estimated at 86% (95% CRI 35–151). 5. Synthesis and applications . Open-population binomial mixture models are attractive for studying true population dynamics while explicitly accounting for the observation process, i.e. imperfect detection. We emphasize the important conceptual benefit provided by temporal replicate observations in terms of the interpretability of animal counts.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2021

Riverscape nesting dynamics of Neosho Smallmouth Bass: To cluster or not to cluster?

Aim Hierarchical stream habitat conditions influence patterns of fish abundance and population dynamics. The spawning period is important for stream fishes but coincides with unpredictable environmental conditions and stressors. Thus, identifying habitats that confer suitable spawning is crucial to managing vulnerable fish populations, including narrow-range endemics. Here, we evaluate reach- and catchment-scale habitat features related to Neosho Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu velox ) nest presence, abundance and aggregations (clusters) and quantify nest microhabitat. Location Ozark Highlands ecoregion, USA. Methods We conducted snorkel and habitat surveys from 2016 to 2018 to quantify nest abundance, describe nest cluster characteristics and quantify nest microhabitat. We used field-collected and geospatial variables and developed generalized mixed models to evaluate the influence of multi-scale habitat features on nest cluster presence and nest abundance. Results Nest clusters, scarcely known for other Smallmouth Bass populations, contained 25% of all documented nests. Presence of nests was more likely in warmer stream reaches with wide, shallow channels and more pool habitat. Nest cluster presence was more likely with greater nest densities and earlier in the spawning season. The abundance of Smallmouth Bass nests was related to several reach-scale habitat conditions, with greater nest counts in warmer reaches and reaches with deeper pool habitat. Regardless of cluster behaviour, nesting Smallmouth Bass used similar microhabitats, including a range of depths (0.26–1.85 m), low velocities (<0.1 m/s) and typically gravel substrates. Main conclusions Our results indicate plasticity in nesting ecology within Neosho Smallmouth Bass populations and highlight the need to consider multiple aspects of stream habitat when developing conservation and management plans. The importance of reach-scale habitat features suggests it may be important to limit landscape and channel alterations. Nest clustering behaviour suggests these populations may be vulnerable to human influence during the nesting season, but also provides management opportunities for protection during critical time periods.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS2025

Increased heterozygosity and body condition result from admixed translocation of the threatened Mogollon Narrow-headed Gartersnake (Thamnophis rufipunctatus)

Enhancing gene flow through translocations can be a useful tool in recovering small and isolated populations. However, it is not devoid of genetic risks, such as outbreeding depression in future generations, that can have negative consequences in terms of the establishment and mean fitness of the population. Studies that monitor the long-term effects of genetic rescue on populations in the wild are few, especially for snakes. We used long-term genetic monitoring and body condition indices to investigate the consequences of conservation translocation and genetic admixture in a Mogollon Narrow-headed Gartersnake ( Thamnophis rufipunctatus ) wild population. We compared genetic diversity and fitness metrics among the source and recipient populations to evaluate individual- and population-level fitness responses related to the conservation translocation. Our study found persistent captures with continued monitoring for over a decade post-release, and the recipient population showed lower inbreeding values and an increase in heterozygosity that was 19% higher than the two source populations. Snakes sampled in the recipient population had higher individual heterozygosity and body condition than those in the extant source and reference populations. Further, Bayesian regression models supported a significant positive relationship between heterozygosity and body condition after accounting for among-site differences, suggesting that efforts to increase heterozygosity can improve mean fitness in these populations. Our study highlights the potential benefits of conservation translocation from multiple source populations to restore the distribution and increase heterozygosity and population fitness of this threatened gartersnake. Alongside ecological restoration, translocation programs could be used to ensure both the persistence and resilience of populations throughout the species’ range.

New Mexico↗

USGS2004

Urbanization impacts on the structure and function of forested wetlands

The exponential increase in population has fueled a significant demographic shift: 60% of the Earth's population will live in urban areas by 2030. While this population growth is significant in its magnitude, the ecological footprint of natural resource consumption and use required to sustain urban populations is even greater. The land use and cover changes accompanying urbanization (increasing human habitation coupled with resource consumption and extensive landscape modification) impacts natural ecosystems at multiple spatial scales. Because they generally occupy lower landscape positions and are linked to other ecosystems through hydrologic connections, the cascading effects of habitat alteration on watershed hydrology and nutrient cycling are particularly detrimental to wetland ecosystems. I reviewed literature relevant to these effects of urbanization on the structure and function of forested wetlands. Hydrologic changes caused by habitat fragmentation generally reduce species richness and abundance of plants, macroinvertebrates, amphibians, and birds with greater numbers of invasives and exotics. Reduction in soil saturation and lowered water tables result in greater nitrogen mineralization and nitrification in urban wetlands with higher probability of NO − 3 export from the watershed. Depressional forested wetlands in urban areas can function as important sinks for sediments, nutrients, and metals. As urban ecosystems become the predominant human condition, there is a critical need for data specific to urban forested wetlands in order to better understand the role of these ecosystems on the landscape.

Urban Ecosystems↗

USGS2015

Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly inhospitable to pronghorn persistence. This realization informs and steers conservation and management decisions for pronghorn in North America, while exemplifying how similar research can aid ungulates inhabiting arid regions and confronting similar circumstances elsewhere.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2024

Foraging ecology of southern sea otters at the northern range extent informs regional population dynamics

Sea otters Enhydra lutris are vital keystone predators throughout the North Pacific that were nearly extirpated during the maritime fur trade. Recovery of southern sea otters E. l. nereis has proceeded slowly, with much of their historical range remaining unoccupied, resulting in reduced ecosystem functioning. Numerous studies have used foraging metrics to assess the population status of southern sea otters throughout their current range, but little is known about the northern range extent, where a stall in expansion has limited recovery. Thus, we collected census and foraging data of sea otters at Año Nuevo State Park, California, from 2019 to 2021 to determine sea otter abundance, diet composition, diet diversity, and average energy intake rate at the northern range edge. We then assessed regional population status by comparing values from Año Nuevo with previously collected data from other locations in California, including high-density, range center sites and low-density, range periphery sites. We found that sea otter density at Año Nuevo was greater than surrounding areas at the northern range periphery, and the average (±95% CI) energy intake (9.51 ± 0.91 kcal min -1 ) more closely resembled values observed at high-density sites. Further, dietary diversity (using the Shannon-Wiener index, H ) was intermediate between previously studied high- and low-density populations ( H = 1.81), with crabs making up the largest proportion of the diet (~56%). Overall, this study highlights possible effects of occupation time and range stagnation, identifies unique aspects of the prey resource base at Año Nuevo, and provides insight into the ongoing lack of northern range expansion.

California↗