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At least 379 records · Page 21Linked to original sources
USGS1978

Documentation of potential for surface faulting related to ground-water withdrawal in Las Vegas Valley, Nevada

Leveling data collected in Las Vegas Valley are compatible with the interpretation that ongoing land-surface displacements related to ground-water withdrawal may be precursory to fault offset of the land surface. Zones of potential faulting intersect regions of intense urban development. The degree of risk and the potential economic consequences from possible surface faulting cannot be assessed adequately without additional data and analysis of the relation between surface faulting and ground-water withdrawal.

Nevada↗
USGS2014

USGS ecosystem research for the next decade: advancing discovery and application in parks and protected areas through collaboration

Ecosystems within parks and protected areas in the United States and throughout the world are being transformed at an unprecedented rate. Changes associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, food, land, energy and mineral resources are placing urgency on sound decision making that will help sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). In recognition of the importance of science in making these decisions, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2007 identified ecosystem science as one of six science directions included in a comprehensive decadal strategy (USGS 2007). The Ecosystems Mission Area was identified as essential for integrating activity within the USGS and as a key to enhanced integration with other Federal and private sector research and management organizations (Myers at al., 2007). This paper focuses on benefits to parks and protected areas from the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area plan that expanded the scope of the original 2007 science strategy, to identify the Bureau’s work in ecosystem science over the next decade (Williams et al., 2013). The plan describes a framework that encompasses both basic and applied science and allows the USGS to continue to contribute meaningfully to conservation and management issues related to the Nation’s parks and ecological resources. This framework relies on maintaining long-standing, collaborative relationships with partners in both conducting science and applying scientific results. Here we summarize the major components of the USGS Ecosystems Science Strategy, articulating the vision, goals and strategic approaches, then outlining some of the proposed actions that will ultimately prove useful to those managing parks and protected areas. We end with a discussion on the future of ecosystem science for the USGS and how it can be used to evaluate ecosystem change and the associated consequences to management of our Nation’s natural resources.

The George Wright Forum↗
USGS2011

Disaster risk assessment case study: Recent drought on the Navajo Nation, USA

The Navajo Nation is an ecologically sensitive semi-arid to arid section of the southern Colorado Plateau. In this remote part of the United States, located at the Four Corners (Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah), traditional people live a subsistence lifestyle that is inextricably tied to, and dependent upon, landscape conditions and water supplies. Soft bedrock lithologies and sand dunes dominate the region, making it highly sensitive to fluctuations in precipitation intensity, percent vegetation cover, and local land use practices. However, this region has sparse and discontinuous meteorological monitoring records. As a complement to the scant long-term meteorological records and historical documentation, we conducted interviews with 50 Native American elders from the Navajo Nation and compiled their lifetime observations on the changes in water availability, weather, and sand or dust storms. We then used these observations to further refine our understanding of the historical trends and impacts of climate change and drought for the region. In addition to altered landscape conditions due to climatic change, drought, and varying land use practices over the last 130 years, the Navajo people have been affected by federal policies and harsh economic conditions which weaken their cultural fabric. We conclude that a long-term drying trend and decreasing snowpack, superimposed on regional drought cycles, will magnify drought impacts on the Navajo Nation and leave its people increasingly vulnerable.

Report↗
USGS2011

Derived crop management data for the LandCarbon Project

The LandCarbon project is assessing potential carbon pools and greenhouse gas fluxes under various scenarios and land management regimes to provide information to support the formulation of policies governing climate change mitigation, adaptation and land management strategies. The project is unique in that spatially explicit maps of annual land cover and land-use change are created at the 250-meter pixel resolution. The project uses vast amounts of data as input to the models, including satellite, climate, land cover, soil, and land management data. Management data have been obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) that provides information regarding crop type, crop harvesting, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2011a, b, c). The LandCarbon team queried the USDA databases to pull historic crop-related management data relative to the needs of the project. The data obtained was in table form with the County or State Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) and the year as the primary and secondary keys. Future projections were generated for the A1B, A2, B1, and B2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios using the historic data values along with coefficients generated by the project. The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) modeling framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment, 2006) was used to develop coefficients for each IPCC SRES scenario, which were applied to the historic management data to produce future land management practice projections. The LandCarbon project developed algorithms for deriving gridded data, using these tabular management data products as input. The derived gridded crop type, crop harvesting, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop products are used as input to the LandCarbon models to represent the historic and the future scenario management data. The overall algorithm to generate each of the gridded management products is based on the land cover and the derived crop type. For each year in the land cover dataset, the algorithm loops through each 250-meter pixel in the ecoregion. If the current pixel in the land cover dataset is an agriculture pixel, then the crop type is determined. Once the crop type is derived, then the crop harvest, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop values are derived independently for that crop type. The following is the overall algorithm used for the set of derived grids. The specific algorithm to generate each management dataset is discussed in the respective section for that dataset, along with special data handling and a description of the output product.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2020

Management of the brown-headed cowbird: Implications for endangered species and agricultural damage mitigation

The brown-headed cowbird ( Molothrus ater ; cowbird) is unique among North American blackbirds (Icteridae) because it is managed to mitigate the negative effects on endangered songbirds and economic losses in agricultural crops. Cowbird brood parasitism can further affect species that are considered threatened or endangered due to anthropogenic land uses. Historically, cowbirds have often been culled without addressing ultimate causes of songbird population declines. Similar to other North American blackbirds, cowbirds depredate agricultural crops, albeit at a lower rate reported for other blackbird species. Conflicting information exists on the extent of agricultural damage caused by cowbirds and the effectiveness of mitigation measures for application to management. In this paper, we reviewed the progress that has been made in cowbird management from approximately 2005 to 2020 in relation to endangered species. We also reviewed losses to the rice ( Oryza sativa ) crop attributed to cowbirds and the programs designed to reduce depredation. Of the 4 songbird species in which cowbirds have been managed, both the Kirtland’s warbler ( Dendroica kirtlandii ) and black-capped vireo ( Vireo atricapilla ) have been removed from the endangered species list following population increases in response to habitat expansion. Cowbird trapping has ceased for Kirtland’s warbler but continues for the vireo. In contrast, least Bell’s vireo ( V. bellii pusillus ) and southwestern willow flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) still require cowbird control after modest increases in suitable habitat. Our review of rice depredation by cowbirds revealed models that have been created to determine the number of cowbirds that can be taken to decrease rice loss have been useful but require refinement with new data that incorporate cowbird population changes in the rice growing region, dietary preference studies, and current information on population sex ratios and female cowbird egg laying. Once this information has been gathered, bioenergetic and economic models would increase our understanding of the damage caused by cowbirds.

California↗
USGS2019

Opportunities and barriers for endangered species conservation using payments for ecosystem services

Endangered species laws seek to prevent extinction by outlawing actions that may cause harm or lead to extinction. In doing so, these laws are sometimes criticized for limiting management flexibility and subjecting landowners to regulatory burdens. One proposed solution to this challenge is development of payment for ecosystem service (PES) programs. These programs provide an economic incentive to conserve endangered species by compensating landowners for the costs of conservation or forgoing other profitable uses of land and resources. To assess the utility of PES as a means of overcoming opposition to endangered species regulations, we surveyed ranch operators in Arizona and New Mexico facing new regulations related to endangered jaguars ( Panthera onca ). Our findings suggest that PES cannot overcome the perceived burdens of species protection regulations and are unlikely to increase collaboration between landowners and government agencies. PES approaches are only likely to succeed where there is strong fit between institutional design and resource manager preferences. In the context of endangered species, PES proponents must pay particular attention to institutional arrangements that reduce concerns about regulatory risk. To this end, to effectively meet endangered species conservation goals, we recommend: 1) framing PES programs as voluntary conservation incentives, 2) focusing incentives on healthy ecosystems rather than a single species, and 3) using private funding to support incentives. Under these circumstances, PES may be an effective endangered species conservation tool.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2010

An occurrence model for the national assessment of volcanogenic beryllium deposits

The general occurrence model summarized here is intended to provide a descriptive basis for the identification and assessment of undiscovered beryllium deposits of a type and style similar to those found at Spor Mountain, Juab County, Utah. The assessment model is restricted in its application in order to provide a coherent basis for assessing the probability of the occurrence of similar economic deposits using the current U.S. Geological Survey methodology. The model is intended to be used to identify tracts of land where volcanogenic epithermal replacement-type beryllium deposits hosted by metaluminous to peraluminous rhyolite are most likely to occur. Only a limited number of deposits or districts of this type are known, and only the ores of the Spor Mountain district have been studied in detail. The model highlights those distinctive aspects and features of volcanogenic epithermal beryllium deposits that pertain to the development of assessment criteria and puts forward a baseline analysis of the geoenvironmental consequences of mining deposits of this type.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

Retrospective analysis of estrogenic endocrine disruption and land-use influences in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States and its watershed includes river drainages in six states and the District of Columbia. Sportfishing is of major economic interest, however, the rivers within the watershed provide numerous other ecological, recreational, cultural and economic benefits, as well as serving as a drinking water source for millions of people. Consequently, major fish kills and the subsequent finding of estrogenic endocrine disruption (intersex or testicular oocytes and plasma vitellogenin in male fishes) raised public and management concerns. Studies have occurred at various sites within the Bay watershed to document the extent and severity of endocrine disruption, identify risk factors and document temporal and spatial variability. Data from these focal studies, which began in 2004, were used in CART (classification and regression trees) analyses to better identify land use associations and potential management practices that influence estrogenic endocrine disruption. These analyses emphasized the importance of scale (immediate versus upstream catchment) and the complex mixtures of stressors which can contribute to surface water estrogenicity and the associated adverse effects of exposure. Both agricultural (percent cultivated, pesticide application, phytoestrogen cover crops) and developed (population density, road density, impervious surface) land cover showed positive relationships to estrogenic indicators, while percent forest and shrubs generally had a negative association. The findings can serve as a baseline for assessing ongoing restoration and management practices.

Chesapeake Bay river watersheds↗
USGS2001

U.S. Geological Survey Appalachian region integrated science workshop proceedings, Gatlinburg, Tennessee, October 22-26, 2001

Some of nature's most magnificent creations on Earth are the picturesque landscape and the terrestrial and aquatic inhabitants of the Appalachian Mountains of the Eastern United States. Mother Nature has been kind to the region but man, often, has not. The Appalachian mountains and valleys have been home to a variety of human cultures, dating back approximately 12,000 years. A series of Native American peoples, including most recently the Cherokee Nation, inhabited the region prior to European settlement which began in the 1600's. All of these peoples have had the desire to reap the benefits of the land. Current and historic use of the land ranges from mineral extraction to agricultural development to timber production to industrial and residential development, all of which have now threatened the landscape. Many individuals and organizations desire to save the awe and beauty of the Appalachians for the generations to come, in a way that is environmentally and economically sustainable. They have tried for years to raise alarms that this area is threatened and worth the attention of all who are interested in an effort of restitution and preservation. Residents, environmental groups, land managers, scientists, business groups, and the multitude of visitors who pass through the national parks and other public lands located within the Appalachians have raised these same alarms. There is a need to not only identify the issues resulting from anthropogenic pressures on the landscape, but also to collect the information and conduct the science that will allow land managers and policy makers to become better informed and better able to execute their responsibilities.

Appalachia↗
USGS2019

A mosaic of land tenure and ownership creates challenges and opportunities for transboundary conservation in the US-Mexico borderlands

In the Madrean Sky Islands of western North America, a mixture of public and private land ownership and tenure creates a complex situation for collaborative efforts in conservation. In this case study, we describe the current ownership and management structures in the US-Mexico borderlands where social, political, and economic conditions create extreme pressures on the environment and challenges for conservation. On the US side of the border, sky island mountain ranges are almost entirely publicly owned and managed by federal, state and tribal organizations that manage and monitor species, habitats, and disturbances including fire. In contrast, public lands are scarce in the adjacent mountain ranges of Mexico, rather, a unique system of private parcels and communal lands make up most of Mexico's Natural Protected Areas. Several of the Protected Area reserves in Mexico form a matrix that serves to connect scattered habitats for jaguars dispersing northward toward public and private reserves in the U.S. from their northernmost breeding areas in Mexico. Despite administrative or jurisdictional boundaries superimposed upon the landscape, we identify two unifying management themes that encourage collaborative management of transboundary landscape processes and habitat connectivity: jaguar conservation and wildfire management. Our case study promotes understanding of conservation challenges as they are perceived and managed in a diversity of settings across the US-Mexico borderlands. Ultimately, recognizing the unique and important contributions of people living and working under different systems of land ownership and tenure will open doors for partnerships in achieving common goals.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Chihuahua, N↗
USGS2021

Mineral resource inventory of North Dakota

Aside from construction aggregate materials, the value of nonfuel mineral commodities that have been produced in North Dakota is small, although there is potential for the existence of several mineral resource deposit types which are not economically viable at this time. In this report, we present a mineral resource inventory of the State of North Dakota, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey at the request the Bureau of Land Management. To set the stage for that inventory, we briefly outline the long and complex geologic history of North Dakota that extends back more than 3 billion years. Using several existing databases, we summarize the distribution of known mineral commodities and the results of commodity exploration over time. Using all available data, we discuss the potential for economic occurrences of 13 commodities in North Dakota, including some listed as Critical Minerals.

North Dakota↗
USGS2015

Looking beyond rare species as umbrella species: Northern Bobwhites ( Colinus virginianus ) and conservation of grassland and shrubland birds

Changes in land use and land cover throughout the eastern half of North America have caused substantial declines in populations of birds that rely on grassland and shrubland vegetation types, including socially and economically important game birds such as the Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ; hereafter bobwhites). As much attention is focused on habitat management and restoration for bobwhites, they may act as an umbrella species for other bird species with similar habitat requirements. We quantified the relationship of bobwhites to the overall bird community and evaluated the potential for bobwhites to act as an umbrella species for grassland and shrubland birds. We monitored bobwhite presence and bird community composition within 31 sample units on selected private lands in the south-central United States from 2009 to 2011. Bobwhites were strongly associated with other grassland and shrubland birds and were a significant positive predictor for 9 species. Seven of these, including Bell's Vireo ( Vireo bell ), Dicksissel ( Spiza americana ), and Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ), are listed as species of conservation concern. Species richness and occupancy probability of grassland and shrubland birds were higher relative to the overall bird community in sample units occupied by bobwhites. Our results show that bobwhites can act as an umbrella species for grassland and shrubland birds, although the specific species in any given situation will depend on region and management objectives. These results suggest that efficiency in conservation funding can be increased by using public interest in popular game species to leverage resources to meet multiple conservation objectives.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2021

Tungsten skarn mineral resource assessment of the Great Basin region of western Nevada and eastern California

A new quantitative mineral resource assessment for tungsten, a critical mineral commodity with highly concentrated production and a moderate risk of global supply disruption, was conducted for the Great Basin region of western Nevada and eastern California. This assessment was part of a larger effort focusing on three regions in the United States and represents the first study of domestic tungsten resources and mineral potential in over twenty years. By integrating geology, bedrock and stream sediment geochemistry, geophysics, and remote sensing data with recently developed software tools and analyses, estimates of undiscovered tungsten skarn deposits in permissive tracts are combined with grade and tonnage distributions of known deposits to generate probabilistic estimates of undiscovered resources. Identified resources in the Great Basin region total 168 thousand metric tons (kt) of tungsten trioxide (WO 3 ), including 116 kt of past production and 52 kt remaining in place. Consistent with the historic significance of the Great Basin region as a past producer containing a large portion of U.S. identified resources, undiscovered resources are likely to occur adjacent to known deposits and prospects and at unexplored depths. Undiscovered deposits are estimated to contain median resources of 940 kt of WO 3 with a 90% probability of at least 420 kt and a 10% probability of at least 1.7 million metric tons (Mt), of which 240 kt to 1.1 Mt may be economic to extract. Based on a 20-year average price, median recoverable undiscovered resources are estimated at 570 kt WO 3 equivalent with a net present value of $3 billion U.S. dollars. The methods, data, results, and economic significance of the assessment contribute to a scientific understanding of a critical mineral resource with direct implications for policy and land management decisions.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2012

Leveraging modern climatology to increase adaptive capacity across protected area networks

Human-driven changes in the global environment pose an increasingly urgent challenge for the management of ecosystems that is made all the more difficult by the uncertain future of both environmental conditions and ecological responses. Land managers need strategies to increase regional adaptive capacity, but relevant and rapid assessment approaches are lacking. To address this need, we developed a method to assess regional protected area networks across biophysically important climatic gradients often linked to biodiversity and ecosystem function. We plot the land of the southwestern United States across axes of historical climate space, and identify landscapes that may serve as strategic additions to current protected area portfolios. Considering climate space is straightforward, and it can be applied using a variety of relevant climate parameters across differing levels of land protection status. The resulting maps identify lands that are climatically distinct from existing protected areas, and may be utilized in combination with other ecological and socio-economic information essential to collaborative landscape-scale decision-making. Alongside other strategies intended to protect species of special concern, natural resources, and other ecosystem services, the methods presented herein provide another important hedging strategy intended to increase the adaptive capacity of protected area networks.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2023

The value of scientific information — An overview

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides reliable science, data, information, and models (hereafter collectively referred to as “information”) to describe and understand the Earth. This information is used to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect quality of life. USGS science informs public and private decisions, operations, and risk management in all major United States economic sectors, as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and provides critical information for natural resource and natural hazard management and stewardship decisions. Understanding the value of scientific information supports applications of USGS science in land- and water-management decisions, and better informs the public about the return on investment of USGS programs. USGS economists, social scientists, and physical scientists are engaged in collaborative efforts to advance methods to estimate the value of information (VOI) produced by the USGS. These efforts involve collaborating with an international community to develop and refine estimation methods, establish best practices to determine VOI, develop a study repository, and conduct projects to assess the VOI of specific information products and their application. This report focuses on economic valuation conducted by USGS specifically, although the methodology has much broader applicability within the U.S. government, academia, and beyond. Noneconomic valuation techniques for assessing the VOI also exist but are not addressed in this report.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Identifying potential areas for biofuel production and evaluating the environmental effects: a case study of the James River Basin in the Midwestern United States

Biofuels are now an important resource in the United States because of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Both increased corn growth for ethanol production and perennial dedicated energy crop growth for cellulosic feedstocks are potential sources to meet the rising demand for biofuels. However, these measures may cause adverse environmental consequences that are not yet fully understood. This study 1) evaluates the long-term impacts of increased frequency of corn in the crop rotation system on water quantity and quality as well as soil fertility in the James River Basin and 2) identifies potential grasslands for cultivating bioenergy crops (e.g. switchgrass), estimating the water quality impacts. We selected the soil and water assessment tool, a physically based multidisciplinary model, as the modeling approach to simulate a series of biofuel production scenarios involving crop rotation and land cover changes. The model simulations with different crop rotation scenarios indicate that decreases in water yield and soil nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 -N) concentration along with an increase in NO 3 -N load to stream water could justify serious concerns regarding increased corn rotations in this basin. Simulations with land cover change scenarios helped us spatially classify the grasslands in terms of biomass productivity and nitrogen loads, and we further derived the relationship of biomass production targets and the resulting nitrogen loads against switchgrass planting acreages. The suggested economically efficient (planting acreage) and environmentally friendly (water quality) planting locations and acreages can be a valuable guide for cultivating switchgrass in this basin. This information, along with the projected environmental costs (i.e. reduced water yield and increased nitrogen load), can contribute to decision support tools for land managers to seek the sustainability of biofuel development in this region.

Missouri↗
USGS2016

Shifting currents: Progress, setbacks, and shifts in policy and practice

The Wisconsin Academy’s initial Waters of Wisconsin project (WOW I) facilitated a statewide conversation between 2000 and 2003 around one main question: How can we ensure healthy aquatic ecosystems and clean, abundant water supplies for tomorrow’s Wisconsin? Robust participation in this conversation underscored the important role citizens have in the stewardship of our waters, and we found enthusiastic support for farsighted policies—based on sound science—to manage our water legacy. Overall, we found that Wisconsinites cherish water and see our waters as essential to our way of life in Wisconsin. Nationally, our state ranks 25th in land area but has the fourth-highest area covered by water. Wisconsin is 20th in population but is second only to Florida in the number of fishing licenses sold each year. Clean water supports billions of dollars’ worth of economic activity through tourism, agriculture, and industry. From the Northwoods cabin to the Port of Milwaukee to the Wisconsin Dells, water shapes our state’s identity. Our tradition of safeguarding Wisconsin’s waters is grounded in values such as responsibility to family and future generations, respect for land and wildlife, protecting public health and safety, and caring for water as a common good, as articulated in the state’s Public Trust Doctrine (see page 9). These deeply held values have also shaped a conservation ethic, and its legacy has served many generations who depend upon and enjoy the waters of the state. Through WOW I, we identified the need to overcome the institutional and disciplinary separation of science, policy, and management protocols through a more integrated approach to water management. WOW also affirmed that the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and other public agencies play a critical role in sound scientific application, citizen participation, and the practical implementation of policy while balancing public and private interests toward the goal of a clean water future. More than a decade has passed since our first statewide WOW conversation and the report that captured recommendations from its participants: Waters of Wisconsin: The Future of Our Aquatic Ecosystems and Resources. Drawing from a diverse and growing set of stakeholders from across the state, the Wisconsin Academy initiated a new conversation in 2012 (known as WOW II) to assess progress in regard to our 2003 recommendations. We also sought to review the status of waters in Wisconsin today. The result of this renewed conversation is Shifting Currents: Progress, Setbacks, and Shifts in Policy and Practice. The new report assesses progress in brief, and explores in greater depth the continuing and emerging challenges to water quality, supply, and aquatic ecosystems in Wisconsin. In this report, we first review the context and frameworks for public decision-making about water and then examine some of the root causes—or “drivers”—and ecological stressors that underlie many of the symptoms we see in the form of pollution or ecosystem degradation in Wisconsin. This is followed by a summary of current water issues, many of which had been identified in the 2003 report and remain relevant today. We examine progress since 2003 but also setbacks, and discuss issues that we are likely to continue to face in the coming decades, including controlling agricultural runoff, mitigating climate change and grappling with its effects on the state’s waters, protecting groundwater from bacterial contamination and other pollutants, and preventing groundwater depletion. We also attempt to anticipate issues on the horizon. We offer a deeper look at some particular challenges, such as phosphorus pollution and groundwater contamination. We then consider the current decision-making framework and how it is shaping our capacity to respond to water challenges in Wisconsin. Finally, we offer recommendations and identify opportunities to safeguard Wisconsin’s waters in the decades ahead. From its inception, the Wisconsin Academy’s Waters of Wisconsin Initiative has brought together a diverse community of experts from across the state and from varied fields and areas of interest, to address challenges and seize opportunities related to our precious waters. We have done so as a matter of both principle and practical reality: the state of our waters reflects the ways we interact not only with them, but also with one another and our institutions. The WOW Initiative has aimed to provide guidance for Wisconsin citizens in sustaining the health of our aquatic ecosystems and the resilience of our water supplies over the long term.

Report↗
USGS2026

Spatially referenced watershed models for the binational Red–Assiniboine River Basin: Bayesian vs frequentist comparison

Excess nutrient loading remains a leading cause of declining water quality in lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters worldwide, with global economic costs of US$200 billion – US$2 trillion annually from impacts on fisheries, tourism, freshwater resources, and water treatment. Our study focuses on total phosphorus (TP) in Lake Winnipeg and its binational Red-Assiniboine River Basin, where nutrient inputs have degraded water quality and increased cyanobacterial blooms. These changes pose ecological, public health, and economic risks. We applied a spatially referenced watershed model with a hybrid statistical-mechanistic structure partitioning annual nutrient loads into land-use export, land-to-water delivery, and in-reservoir decay. Bayesian and traditional frequentist model calibrations were compared. In the frequentist model, coefficients for agricultural inputs, forests /wetlands, stream channels, precipitation, and reservoir losses were statistically significant, whereas coefficient for wastewater was not. In contrast, all variables were successfully calibrated using the Bayesian approach. Model results delineate TP-export hotspots across the basin, showing that 54–62% of TP originates from the U.S., with agricultural sources ranging 62–72%—highlighting the importance of agriculture-focused Best Management Practices. Given the global relevance of nutrient-driven water-quality challenges, our results highlight Bayesian calibration for robust risk assessment and adaptive nutrient management.

Red–Assiniboine River Basin↗