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USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address highly pathogenic avian influenza and its effects on wildlife health 2025–29

Executive Summary Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an ecologically and economically important animal disease that can also directly affect humans (a “zoonotic” disease). HPAI was once limited almost exclusively to domestic poultry but has rapidly adapted to diverse animal hosts. Viruses causing HPAI now appear to be maintained and dispersed by wild birds largely independent of poultry, though HPAI continues to cause considerable economic losses and supply chain disruptions in the domestic poultry trade. Coincident with the adaptation of HPAI viruses to wild birds, particularly waterfowl and gulls, increasingly diverse wild bird hosts are becoming exposed to HPAI, often resulting in disease and death. More sporadically, HPAI has caused mass mortality events, particularly among seabirds. Furthermore, viral spillover to wild and domestic mammals has become more common. Spillover to wild mammals has resulted in mortality among diverse terrestrial and marine taxa, including episodic losses of such scale as to represent potential conservation challenges. Since approximately March 2024, HPAI has also affected dairy cows, which represents a new threat to the agricultural economy. Lastly, HPAI has increasingly affected humans through domestic animal exposures, exemplifying the considerable implications of this disease beyond animal health. Rapid changes in the ecology of HPAI are currently outpacing research efforts. For example, it is not entirely clear which newly established hosts may become reservoirs for HPAI viruses (in other words, capable of maintaining HPAI viruses within a broad population indefinitely) and how this may influence viral evolution and dissemination. As a result, there are considerable information gaps regarding HPAI in wildlife that, if filled, would improve the ability of scientists, managers, agricultural industry representatives, and healthcare professionals to understand and to anticipate the effects of HPAI on wild animal, domestic animal, environmental, and human health (“One Health”). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the lead Federal agency providing scientific research on avian influenza viruses (AIVs), including HPAI viruses, that affect wildlife for which the Department of the Interior (DOI) has management authority. States have jurisdiction over wildlife on Federal lands within their borders (43 CFR § 24.3), so the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area (EMA) coordinates with State natural resource management agencies. The EMA focuses its research on HPAI through priorities identified by the USGS Avian Influenza Science Team ( app. 1 ). Priorities identified by the USGS Avian Influenza Science Team are based on Administration priorities, Congressional direction, and discussions with State, Federal, and Tribal natural resource management agencies that identify specific scientific gaps that need to be filled to inform sound wildlife management decisions. Notable non-DOI Federal partners include the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the lead for the HPAI regulatory response in poultry and livestock, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the lead agency for the HPAI response pertaining to human health. The USGS offers unique expertise and capacity pertaining to research on diseases affecting free-ranging wildlife populations. This expertise has been critical to interjurisdictional surveillance and capacity-building efforts, including programs administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the CDC. The USGS also provides resources, guidance, and tools to inform surveillance and interventions conducted by natural resource management agencies. More specifically, the USGS EMA provides objective and rigorous scientific data for inferring (1) the utility of new methods to detect and characterize AIVs, including those maintained in wildlife and the environment; (2) effects of HPAI on wildlife; (3) spatiotemporal patterns of wildlife host and AIV dispersal; (4) the presence and persistence of AIVs in the environment; (5) how HPAI in wildlife influences consumptive and nonconsumptive utilization of wildlife; (6) how new tools and scientific methods may promote sound management decisions for HPAI-affected wildlife, particularly species of conservation concern; and (7) the combined effects of HPAI and other stressors on ecosystem health and resiliency. This science strategy builds upon research outlined in a previous USGS science strategy for HPAI (2016–20) by Harris and others (2016) . This strategy also details research priorities identified by the Administration (for example, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2025 ) and others based on USGS Avian Influenza Science Team discussions with natural resource management agencies to address HPAI and wildlife health over the next 5 years (2025–29). This strategy presents 7 goals and 26 objectives that focus USGS and partner efforts on priorities that will fill data gaps regarding the effects of HPAI on wildlife managed by or co-managed with the U.S. Department of the Interior such that agencies and partners might anticipate or limit adverse effects on public resources. This strategy also identifies research priorities intended to address HPAI in wildlife and wildlife habitat that are anticipated to support interjurisdictional One Health efforts.

Circular↗

USGS2013

Qualilty, isotopes, and radiochemistry of water sampled from the Upper Moenkopi Village water-supply wells, Coconino County, Arizona

The Hopi Tribe Water Resources Program has granted contracts for studies to evaluate water supply conditions for the Moenkopi villages in Coconino County, Arizona. The Moenkopi villages include Upper Moenkopi Village and the village of Lower Moencopi, both on the Hopi Indian Reservation south of the Navajo community of Tuba City. These investigations have determined that water supplies are limited and vulnerable to several potential sources of contamination, including the Tuba City Landfill and a former uranium processing facility known as the Rare Metals Mill. Studies are ongoing to determine if uranium and other metals in groundwater beneath the landfill are greater than regional groundwater concentrations. The source of water supply for the Upper Moenkopi Village is three public-supply wells. The wells are referred to as MSW-1, MSW-2, and MSW-3 and all three wells obtain water from the regionally extensive N aquifer. The N aquifer is the principal aquifer in this region of northern Arizona and consists of thick beds of sandstone between less permeable layers of siltstone and mudstone. The relatively fine-grained character of the N aquifer inhibits rapid movement of water and large yields to wells. In recent years, water levels have declined in the three public-supply wells, causing concern that the current water supply will not be able to accommodate peak demand and allow for residential and economic growth. Analyses of major ions, nutrients, selected trace metals, stable and radioactive isotopes, and radiochemistry were performed on the groundwater samples from the three public-supply wells to describe general water-quality conditions and groundwater ages in and immediately surrounding the Upper Moenkopi Village area. None of the water samples collected from the public-supply wells exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking water standards. The ratios of the major dissolved ions from the samples collected from MSW-1 and MSW-2 indicate water with a major ion composition of calcium and sulfate. There is no significant vertical distribution of ion concentrations in the samples collected from the upper and lower portion of the water column within the two wells. The samples collected at MSW-3 are higher in sodium and lower in calcium than the samples collected from MSW-1 and MSW-2, and contain a similar sulfate-ion percentage. There is a vertical distribution of ion concentrations in the samples collected from the upper and lower portion of the water column in MSW-3. Groundwater samples from the three water-supply wells analyzed for oxygen-18 and deuterium stable isotopes plot on a local water line that is approximately parallel to the global meteoric water line. Tritium concentrations in samples from MSW-1 and MSW-3 were equal to or less than laboratory detection limits and were interpreted to contain no modern (post-1952) water. Tritium concentration in a sample from the top of the water column at MSW-2 was 0.41 tritium units, indicating that the composition is primarily pre-bomb (pre-1952) water, but may contain a small fraction of post-bomb modern water. The calculated carbon-14 ages of groundwater in MSW-1 and MSW-2, both completed about 140 feet into the Navajo Sandstone, are about 3,000 years before present. The calculated carbon-14 age of groundwater in MSW-3, completed about 240 feet into the Kayenta Formation-Navajo Sandstone transition zone is about 5,000 years before present in the upper portion of the water column and about 8,500 years before present in the lower portion of the water column. The gross alpha radioactivity of samples collected from the three water-supply wells ranged from 5.1 to 9.8 picocuries per liter-less than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking water standard of 15 picocuries per liter. The gross beta radioactivity of samples collected from the wells ranged from 0.9 to 2.8 picocuries per liter and are not considered elevated relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking water standard.

Arizona↗

USGS2019

Heavy mineral sands resources in China

About 200 known coastal deposits of heavy mineral sands (HMS) occur in China, in which considerable mineral resources of titanium, zircon, rare earth elements, and thorium exist in the forms of ilmenite, rutile, zircon, and monazite. More than 20 of these HMS deposits are reported as having been or are actively being mined in China during the past three decades, of which 12 have been reported to have industrial resources. Commercially important deposits occur almost entirely in Cenozoic beach and sand dune deposits, principally along China’s eastern coast (e.g., Shandong Province) and southern coast (e.g., Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Fujian provinces), and particularly on Hainan island. There are also important deposits of HMS along coastal areas of Taiwan. China has the largest share of the world’s economic ilmenite resources in HMS deposits (31%). A variety of igneous and associated metamorphic rocks along the coastal areas of China provided an abundant source of heavy minerals for the formation of the HMS occurrences. Studies of titanium-rich HMS deposits have shown that ilmenite is mostly sourced from igneous rocks. For example, 40% of the bedrock of Hainan island consists of Triassic and Cretaceous granites emplaced into rocks of the Cathyasia Block, and all of the HMS districts on the island lie no more than 15 km downstream from a Middle Triassic suite of syenite to granite intrusions. The southern coastal regions of Guangdong and Guangxi provinces are dominated by Jurassic granodiorite, biotite granite, two-mica granite, and A-type granite, with minor gabbro and syenite. Identified accessory minerals in the Jurassic alkaline granitoids include zircon, apatite, allanite, titanite, magnetite, ilmenite, monazite, and niobite. Thus, multiple plutons are in proximity to the Cenozoic coastal plain and are available as bedrock sources for the detrital titanium minerals, zircon, and monazite. More than 100 HMS deposits and prospects have been identified in Shandong Province, consisting of more than 20 varieties of heavy minerals in quartz sand, which include zircon, ilmenite, rutile, monazite, magnetite, xenotime, and gold (in general order of abundance) derived from Precambrian metamorphic basement and Mesozoic intrusions. Of these minerals, zircon, magnetite, gold, and quartz sand have economic significance. The quartz sands are used by the glass and construction industries. The placers mainly occur in and adjacent to the littoral zones of the northern and southern coasts of the Jiaodong Peninsula in Shandong province. Seven beach placer, HMS prospective areas have been delineated in coastal areas of the peninsula. Due to nearly exhausted placer reserves in the Chinese coastal zones, as well as increased environmental restrictions, future prospecting for heavy minerals will likely focus on ancient beach systems in China’s inland sedimentary basins. Also, offshore deposits of HMS in shallow coastal waters are other potential sources of heavy minerals, such as the Baoding Sea zircon-titanium, minerals-rich placer under development near Wanning on Hainan. Similarly, there is potential for offshore HMS deposits in shallow waters of the entire coastal area of southern Taiwan that remains to be fully evaluated. Reconnaissance sampling along Taiwan island’s coasts has revealed the potential for extensive, high-grade HMS accumulations nearshore.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Predicting functional responses in agro-ecosystems from animal movement data to improve management of invasive pests

Functional responses describe how changing resource availability affects consumer resource use, thus providing a mechanistic approach to prediction of the invasibility and potential damage of invasive alien species (IAS). However, functional responses can be context dependent, varying with resource characteristics and availability, consumer attributes, and environmental variables. Identifying context dependencies can allow invasion and damage risk to be predicted across different ecoregions. Understanding how ecological factors shape the functional response in agro‐ecosystems can improve predictions of hotspots of highest impact and inform strategies to mitigate damage across locations with varying crop types and availability. We linked heterogeneous movement data across different agro‐ecosystems to predict ecologically driven variability in the functional responses. We applied our approach to wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ), one of the most successful and detrimental IAS worldwide where agricultural resource depredation is an important driver of spread and establishment. We used continental‐scale movement data within agro‐ecosystems to quantify the functional response of agricultural resources relative to availability of crops and natural forage. We hypothesized that wild pigs would selectively use crops more often when natural forage resources were low. We also examined how individual attributes such as sex, crop type, and resource stimulus such as distance to crops altered the magnitude of the functional response. There was a strong agricultural functional response where crop use was an accelerating function of crop availability at low density (Type III) and was highly context dependent. As hypothesized, there was a reduced response of crop use with increasing crop availability when non‐agricultural resources were more available, emphasizing that crop damage levels are likely to be highly heterogeneous depending on surrounding natural resources and temporal availability of crops. We found significant effects of crop type and sex, with males spending 20% more time and visiting crops 58% more often than females, and both sexes showing different functional responses depending on crop type. Our application demonstrates how commonly collected animal movement data can be used to understand context dependencies in resource use to improve our understanding of pest foraging behavior, with implications for prioritizing spatiotemporal hotspots of potential economic loss in agro‐ecosystems.

California. Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Missouri,↗

USGS2005

Bioeconomic analysis of selected conservation practices on soil erosion and freshwater fisheries

Farmers can generate environmental benefits (improved water quality and fisheries and wildlife habitat), but they may not be able to quantify them. Furthermore, farmers may reduce their incomes from managing lands to produce these positive externalities but receive little monetary compensation in return. This study simulated the relationship between agricultural practices, water quality, fish responses to suspended sediment and farm income within two small watersheds, one of a cool water stream and one of a warm water stream. Using the Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport (ADAPT) model, this study related best management practices (BMPs) to calculated instream suspended sediment concentrations by estimating sediment delivery, runoff, base flow, and streambank erosion to quantify the effects of suspended sediment exposure on fish communities. By implementing selected BMPs in each watershed, annual net farm income declined $18,000 to $28,000 (1 to 3 percent) from previous levels. “Lethal” fish events from suspended sediments in the cool water watershed decreased by 60 percent as conservation tillage and riparian buffers increased. Despite reducing suspended sediments by 25 percent, BMPs in the warm water watershed did not reduce the negative response of the fisheries. Differences in responses (physical and biological) between watersheds highlight potential gains in economic efficiency by targeting BMPs or by offering performance based “green payments.”

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2013

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2026

Resources to inform the 2026 Colorado Climate Preparedness Roadmap: Compound hazards and associated public health implications

Changing environmental conditions are increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather and environmental hazards, including heat waves, wildfires, drought, reduced water quality, and degraded air quality from ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter pollution (AghaKouchak et al., 2020; Bolinger et al., 2024; Colorado Health Institute, 2023a; Fann et al., 2015; IPCC, 2023a; Nagamoto et al., 2024; Nolte et al., 2018, 2021; Zscheischler et al., 2020). Strong scientific evidence indicates that climate change will increase risks to public health and safety throughout the 21st century, particularly through compound climate events (AghaKouchak et al., 2020; Cascio, 2018; Childs et al., 2022; Ebi, 2025; IPCC, 2023a, 2023b; Ma et al., 2024; Marlier et al., 2026; National Academy of Medicine, 2025; Reid et al., 2016; Reid & Maestas, 2019; Simpson et al., 2023; van den Hurk et al., 2023; Volckens, 2024; Zscheischler et al., 2018, 2020). Compound hazards, which are co-occurring or sequential hazards such as heat waves occurring alongside drought, wildfire, and poor air quality from smoke, can amplify public health risks beyond the effects of individual hazards alone (Marlier et al., 2026; Zscheischler et al., 2020). In Colorado, compound climate events with clear implications for public health are already evident (see “Core definitions” section for additional context on compound climate events). Recent statewide assessments have documented increasing heat waves, drought, and wildfires linked to rising temperatures, while emerging data show that climate change is reversing decades of air quality improvements through increased O3 and fine particulate matter pollution due to wildfire, and increased aerosolized topsoil (i.e., dust) due to drought (Bolinger et al., 2024; Childs et al., 2022; Fann et al., 2015; Ghanbari et al., 2023; Larsen et al., 2022; Nolte et al., 2018, 2021; Volckens, 2024). These environmental shifts are associated with increases in eye and kidney-health related concerns, heat-related illness, exacerbations of asthma and other respiratory conditions, increased risk of infectious disease, cardiovascular stress, and mental health impacts, with disparities in risk for children, older adults, outdoor workers, and communities with existing health and economic vulnerabilities (Baraghoshi et al., 2023; Butler-Dawson et al., 2026; Cascio, 2018; Cleland et al., 2022; Colorado Health Institute, 2023a; Grover et al., 2024; Lee et al., 2023; Ma et al., 2024; Macaluso et al., 2024; Marlier et al., 2026; National Academy of Medicine, 2025; Patnaik et al., 2024; Peters et al., 2019; Reid et al., 2016; Reid & Maestas, 2019). The state is actively pursuing strategies to mitigate the risks of these compound climate events on the public, including expanding climate and health surveillance, strengthening early-warning systems and public communication around smoke and air quality, and developing integrated policy agendas that link climate mitigation, adaptation, and health equity (CDPHE, 2025; Colorado Health Institute, 2023b; Zemaitis & Bailey, 2024). For example, state and partner organizations have articulated cross-sector goals to prepare for health impacts related to extreme heat, wildfires, flooding, drought, declines in water quality, and poor air quality, including updating workplace safety protocols, enhancing community-based resilience, adapting clinical care assessments to include climate-related stressors, and improving access to mental and behavioral health services following climate-related disasters (Colorado Health Institute, 2023b; CDPHE, 2025; Zemaitis & Bailey, 2024). To better prepare for current risks and make informed decisions, more information is needed, including methods to analyze historical and projected conditions in near real time, characterize interactions among compound hazards, and translate climate and air quality science into actionable guidance for public health agencies, health care systems, and communities across Colorado (Ebi, 2025; Marlier et al., 2026; National Academy of Medicine, 2025; Simpson et al., 2023; Zscheischler et al., 2018). For this report, we focus on extreme heat and outdoor air quality (ozone [O3] and fine particulate matter [PM2.5]) as the main compound hazards causing compound climate events, given that 1) the state of Colorado has experienced poor air quality for some time, 2) these climate events are affecting large population numbers, and 3) there is capacity to consider and respond to these climate-driven events.

Colorado↗

USGS2018

Using the value of information to improve conservation decision making

Conservation decisions are challenging, not only because they often involve difficult conflicts among outcomes that people value, but because our understanding of the natural world and our effects on it is fraught with uncertainty. Value of Information (VoI) methods provide an approach for understanding and managing uncertainty from the standpoint of the decision maker. These methods are commonly used in other fields (e.g., economics, public health) and are increasingly used in biodiversity conservation. This decision analytical approach can identify the best management alternative to select where the effectiveness of interventions is uncertain, and can help to decide when to act and when to delay action until after further research. We review the use of VoI in the environmental domain, reflect on the need for greater uptake of VoI, particularly for strategic conservation planning, and suggest promising areas for new research. We also suggest common reporting standards as a means of increasing the leverage of this powerful tool. The environmental science, ecology and biodiversity categories of the Web of Knowledge were searched using the terms ‘Value of Information,’ ‘Expected Value of Perfect Information,’ and the abbreviation ‘EVPI.’ Google Scholar was searched with the same terms, and additionally the terms decision and biology, biodiversity conservation, fish, or ecology. We identified 1225 papers from these searches. Included studies were limited to those that show an application of VoI in biodiversity conservation rather than simply describing the method. All examples of use of VOI were summarised regarding the application of VoI, the management objectives, the uncertainties, models used, how the objectives were measured, and the type of VoI. While the use of VoI appears to be on the increase in biodiversity conservation, the reporting of results is highly variable, which can make it difficult to understand the decision context and which uncertainties were considered. Moreover, it was unclear if, and how, the papers informed management and policy interventions, which is why we suggest a range of reporting standards that would aid the use of VoI. The use of VoI in conservation settings is at an early stage. There are opportunities for broader applications, not only for species-focussed management problems, but also for setting local or global research priorities for biodiversity conservation, making funding decisions, or designing or improving protected area networks and management. The long-term benefits of applying VoI methods to biodiversity conservation include a more structured and decision-focused allocation of resources to research.

Biological Reviews↗

USGS2024

How quickly do oil and gas wells “Water Out”? Quantifying and contrasting water production trends

Water production from petroleum (oil and natural gas) wells is a topic of increasing environmental and economic importance, yet quantification efforts have been limited to date, and patterns between and within petroleum plays are largely unscrutinized. Additionally, classification of reservoirs as “unconventional” (also known as “continuous”) carries scientific and regulatory importance, but in some cases the distinction from "conventional" wells is unclear. Using water, oil, and gas production data, we calculated a set of quantitative metrics that elucidate trends in the water-to-petroleum ratio over the life of each producing well. The percent growth of the water-to-petroleum ratio quantifies the degree to which a well “waters out” over time; values calculated for 153,900 wells in 18 oil and gas plays show generally much higher values for conventional wells than for continuous/unconventional wells. Analysis of the percent growth along with the slope and median metrics reveals greater variation between conventional plays and between continuous (unconventional) plays than previously recognized. Further, an example from the Bakken Formation in the Williston Basin, USA, illustrates that, within a single play, the metrics provide insight into spatial variation of water production trends, as influenced by geology and reservoir characteristics. By quantifying the variability of water production trends within individual plays and between plays, including differences between conventional and continuous (unconventional) plays, these results provide a more nuanced view of water production from oil and gas wells than has previously been possible and they illustrate the degree to which water management considerations vary spatially and temporally.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2001

Fish species and community distributions as proxies for sea-floor habitat distributions: the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary example (northwest Atlantic, Gulf Of Maine)

Defining the habitats of fishes and associated fauna on outer continental shelves is problematic given the paucity of data on the actual types and distributions of seafloor habitats. However many regions have good data on the distributions of fishes from resource surveys or catch statistics because of the economic importance of the fisheries. Fish distribution data (species or communities) have been used as a proxy for the distribution of habitats to develop precautionary conservation strategies for habitat protection (e.g., marine protected areas, fishing gear restrictions). In this study we assessed the relationships between the distributions of fish communities and species derived from trawl survey data with the spatial distribution of sediment types determined by sampling and acoustic reflectance derived from multibeam sonar surveys in Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary. Fish communities were correlated with reflectance values but all communities did not occur in unique sediment types. This suggests that use of community distributions as proxies for habitats should include the caveat that a greater number of communities within an area could indicate a greater range of habitat types. Single species distributions showed relationships between abundance and reflectance values. Trawl catches with low abundances had wide variations in reflectance values while those with high abundances had narrower ranges indicating habitat affinities. Significant non-random frequency-dependent relationships were observed for 17 of 20 species although only 12 of 20 species had significant relationships based on rank correlation. These results suggest that species distributions based on trawl survey data can be used as proxies for the distribution of seafloor habitats. Species with known habitat associations can be used to infer habitat requirements of co-occurring species and can be used to identify a range of habitat types.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2012

Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion: Chapter 6 in Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

The Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion comprises numerous intermountain valleys and low-elevation foothill prairies spread across the western half of Montana, on both sides of the Continental Divide (Omernik, 1987; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997). The ecoregion, which covers approximately 64,658 km 2 (24,965 mi 2 ), includes the Flathead Valley and the valleys surrounding Helena, Missoula, Bozeman, Billings, Anaconda, Dillon, and Lewistown (fig. 1). These valleys are generally characterized by shortgrass prairie vegetation and are flanked by forested mountains (Woods and others, 1999); thus, the valleys’ biotas with regards to fish and insects are comparable. In many cases, the valleys are conduits for some of the largest rivers in the state, including Clark Fork and the Missouri, Jefferson, Madison, Flathead, Yellowstone, Gallatin, Smith, Big Hole, Bitterroot, and Blackfoot Rivers (fig. 2). The Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion also includes the “Rocky Mountain front,” an area of prairies along the eastern slope of the northern Rocky Mountains. Principal land uses within the ecoregion include farming, grazing, and mining. The valleys serve as major transportation and utility corridors and also contain the majority of Montana’s human population. The Montana Valley and Foothill Prairies Ecoregion extends into 17 mostly rural counties throughout western Montana. Only three of the counties—Carbon, Yellowstone, and Missoula—are part of a metropolitan statistical area with contiguous built-up areas tied to an employment center. Nearly two-thirds of Montana residents live in nonmetropolitan counties (Albrecht, 2008). Ten of the counties within the ecoregion had population growth rates greater than national averages (9–13 percent) between 1970 and 2000 (table 1). Ravalli and Gallatin Counties had the highest growth rates. Population growth was largely due to amenity-related inmigration and an economy dependent on tourism, health care, and services. Counties that had population declines, such as Deer Lodge, Silver Bow, and Meagher Counties, also had declines in agriculture and mining activity, and they had railroad closures as well. Climate varies from north to south and from the east side of the Continental Divide to the west side. However, all areas are semiarid with long cold winters and short growing seasons. In the western part of the ecoregion, Beaverhead, Bitterroot, Flathead, and Lolo National Forests provide the natural resources, particularly timber, that form the economic base for towns within nearby valleys. Mineral resources from mines in and around Anaconda, Deer Lodge, and Butte have long provided an economic base for these towns (fig. 3).

Idaho;Montana;Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Translating climate change effects on species into everyday language: an example of more driving and less fishing

Climate change is expected to result in widespread changes in species distributions (e.g., shifting, shrinking, expanding species ranges; e.g., Parmesan and Yohe, 2003), especially for freshwater fish species (Heino et al. 2009). Although anglers and other resource users could be greatly affected by changes in species distributions, predicted changes are rarely reported in ways that can be easily understood by the general public. In contrast, climate science that more directly affects human welfare or livelihoods is often more readily communicated to the general public because it is of greater concern or closely related to everyday life. For example, most people can readily interpret how increases in the number of “hot” days above a given temperature threshold might affect their lives, and property owners in coastal areas can use predictive maps to determine how they might be affected by sea level rise (for more examples, see the Third National Assessment of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency at globalchange.gov ). However, the effects of climate change on species are usually reported to the general public using summary metrics or maps designed to communicate concepts that are not normally encountered in everyday life, including changes in habitat suitability, range shifts, or increasing risks from disease or extreme events (e.g., National Audubon Society 2009; Groffman et al. 2014). Though these metrics are necessary, meaningful, and understood by scientists, many people lack the necessary training and background to readily understand them. Further, scientists and nonscientists alike may struggle to convert these metrics into a currency that directly affects day-to-day life. Climate science is a complex issue, and we argue that when communicating potential responses of vegetation, fish, and wildlife to nonscientists, creative thinking with respect to the currency of communication will facilitate discussions between scientists, policy makers, and the public. We posit that with some additional thought and relatively simple summaries, the responses of fish and other species to climate change can be translated into everyday language that will facilitate climate science communication. Although such translations are rare, one example of this type of creativity is the translation from changes in habitat suitability for tree species to potential reductions in maple syrup production (West over 2012), which is arguably more interesting and understandable for the general public. Similar translations could be especially important for communicating climate change effects on game fish and other species that are socially and economically important to large groups of people. We demonstrate this translation by communicating the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of a coldwater fish species, the eastern Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis . Rather than communicating the potential forecasted contraction of the Brook Trout's distribution in terms of habitat loss, we report the predicted increases in the driving distance to streams likely offering Brook Trout angling opportunities under a climate change scenario. Travel costs based on distance have been widely used to value ecosystem services such as angling under climate change scenarios (e.g., Pendleton and Mendelsohn 1998; Mendelsohn and Markowski 1999; Ahn et al. 2000) but, to the best of our knowledge, have not been used for communicating potential changes to the public despite the intrinsic link to everyday life.

New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2007

Survey of chemical contaminants in the Hanalei River, Kaua'i, Hawai'i, 2001

The Hanalei River on the island of Kaua'i in Hawai'i was designated an American Heritage River in 1998, providing special attention to natural resource protection, economic revitalization, and historic and cultural preservation. Agricultural, urban, and tourism-related activities are potential sources of contamination within the Hanalei River watershed. The objective of this study was to measure certain persistent organic chemicals and elements in the Hanalei River. During a relatively low-flow period in December of 2001, samples of native Akupa sleeper fish ( Eleotris sandwicensis ), freshwater Asian clam ( Corbicula fluminea ), giant mud crab ( Scylla serrata ), surface water, and stream bed sediment were collected from a lower estuarine reach of the river near its mouth at Hanalei Bay and from an upper reach at the Hanalei National Wildlife Refuge. Samples were analyzed for residues of urban and agricultural chemicals including organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and elements (including mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic, and selenium). Organic contaminants were extracted from the samples with solvent, enriched, and then analyzed by gas chromatographic analysis with electron capture or mass spectrometric detection. Samples were acid-digested for semi-quantitative analysis for elements by inductively-coupled plasma-mass spectrometry and for quantitative analysis by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Concentrations of organochlorine pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and polychlorinated biphenyls in biota, surface water, and bed sediment sampled from the Hanalei River ranged from nondetectable to very low levels. Polychlorinated biphenyls were below detection in all samples. Dieldrin, the only compound detected in the water samples, was present at very low concentrations of 1-2 nanograms per liter. Akupa sleeper fish and giant mud crabs from the lower reach ranged from 1 to 5 nanograms per gram (wet weight) dieldrin and from less than 0.3 to 2.1 nanograms per gram total chlordane. Concentrations of individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the lower reach bed sediments ranged from less than 1 to 190 nanograms per gram (dry weight). Relative concentrations (patterns) of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in one portion of a sediment sample indicated combustion sources. Concentrations of elements in the surface water, biota, and sediment samples were below toxicity thresholds of ecological concern. In summary, concentrations of the organic contaminants and elements targeted by this study of the Hanalei River in 2001 were below U.S. Environmental Protection Agency probable adverse effects levels for aquatic organisms.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Oyster model inventory: Identifying critical data and modeling approaches to support restoration of oyster reefs in coastal U.S. Gulf of Mexico waters

Executive Summary Along the coast of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) plays important ecological and economic roles. Commercial landings from this region account for more than 50 percent of all U.S. landings; these oyster reefs also provide varied ecosystem services, including nursery habitat for many fish and macroinvertebrate species, shoreline protection, and water-quality maintenance. Declining trends in both total oyster production and functional reef area across this region have spurred investment in restoration of oyster resources, with specific calls for restoration projects to develop a network of reefs and identify broodstock and sanctuary reef restoration sites. Decision making related to restoration and establishment of a network of oyster reefs in the Gulf of Mexico requires information on both the environment and the effects of the environment on the oyster life cycle (including larval movement, survival, oyster recruitment, reproduction, growth, and mortality). Here, we examined the current state of data and model development in this region with the goal of providing an overview of oyster modeling approaches and an inventory of available data and existing oyster models. This report is meant to provide an overview to managers for understanding existing efforts and identify a path forward to most efficiently inform oyster resource management and restoration planning in moving from a single reef management approach to a reef network management approach. Numerous models related to some aspect of the oyster life cycle have been built, calibrated, and validated for various Gulf of Mexico estuaries over the last few decades (over 30 models identified). These models, which could inform site restoration, can be classified into four approaches: (1) oyster Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models; (2) larval transport models; (3) on-reef oyster models that may include oyster growth, mortality and reproduction, and substrate persistence; and (4) coupled larval transport on-reef metapopulation models that simulate the entire oyster life cycle. The data requirements, model complexity and assumptions, and transferability vary by approach. Specifically, some approaches may offer greater accessibility, flexibility, and transferability spatially or temporally, with minimal data input, but only provide broad information to support site selection. In contrast, other approaches may require significant site-specific data for their construction and validation but may provide more accurate and location-specific data to support site selection for broodstock reefs. Regardless of modeling approach used, data on environmental drivers, such as salinity, water temperature, or water flow impacting oyster metabolism and movement, are required at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. While numerous data collection platforms, environmental models, and research products exist within Gulf of Mexico estuaries to provide important environmental data to use as drivers in the oyster models, significant variability in temporal and spatial coverage of the data, and variation in the availability of future condition models, exists across estuaries. This variation influences the spatial and temporal scales at which oyster models may be developed and impacts the calibration and validation of the oyster models within a given estuary, affecting its potential ability to address specific management or restoration questions. While multiple modeling approaches exist for informing site selection of broodstock or sanctuary oyster reefs, the development, calibration, and validation of a single modeling platform presents the most efficient, transferable, and useful tool for managers across the Gulf of Mexico. The development of a single modeling platform would involve using standardized input variables, governing equations, and assumptions for the modeled oyster processes and outputs, and for standardized calibration and validation procedures that could be applied within each estuary. The differences among estuary applications would require substituting only estuary-specific environmental data, and calibrating and validating the modeling approach with local oyster data. Two modeling approaches likely to be useful include (1) development of a general geospatial HSI modeling framework that could be applied consistently across estuaries and (2) a mechanistic coupled larval transport on-reef metapopulation model requiring only estuarine specific calibration and hydrodynamic models. Both approaches benefit from existing work across multiple Gulf of Mexico estuaries and could provide valuable support for oyster restoration, but may differ in their ability to address specific questions related to oyster restoration. HSI models specifically guide restoration practitioners in determining suitable habitat based on available data. The HSI approach, while currently more widely used and accessible, requires more development of larval suitability and larval input and output components in order to inform reef connectivity. A metapopulation approach considering the full oyster life cycle that simulates both on-reef oyster growth, mortality, reproduction, substrate persistence, and larval transport (ideally with larval growth and mortality) would provide the greatest detail and level of understanding but requires significant up-front investment. The larval oyster model and on-reef oyster model are usually developed independently for systems, although the two approaches can be coupled to represent the entire oyster life cycle in order to characterize and assess a reef metapopulation. This approach may be less accessible and much more data-intensive, however, and it requires some expertise to run and apply to inform oyster resource management. Ultimately, the development of single modeling platforms for each of these approaches would provide flexible tools applicable across all Gulf of Mexico oyster supporting estuaries. By using a single platform for model development, testing, calibrating and validating, and evaluation of modeled future scenarios, oyster restoration scientists and managers would not only be able to examine different scenario outcomes within a single estuary, but could also have comparable modeled results to evaluate potential outcomes, across estuaries and regions, that are not confounded by varying modeled data inputs, governing equations, assumptions, or user judgement.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2012

Maps of estimated nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the southwestern United States

Human-health concerns and economic considerations associated with meeting drinking-water standards motivated a study of the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment in the southwestern United States. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid representing about 190,600 square miles of basin-fill aquifers in parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The statistical models, referred to as classifiers, reflect natural and human-related factors that affect aquifer vulnerability to contamination and relate nitrate and arsenic concentrations to explanatory variables representing local- and basin-scale measures of source and aquifer susceptibility conditions. Geochemical variables were not used in concentration predictions because they were not available for the entire study area. The models were calibrated to assess model accuracy on the basis of measured values. Only 2 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers in the study area was predicted to equal or exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standard for nitrate as N (10 milligrams per liter), whereas 43 percent of the area was predicted to equal or exceed the standard for arsenic (10 micrograms per liter). Areas predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for nitrate include basins in central Arizona near Phoenix; the San Joaquin Valley, the Santa Ana Inland, and San Jacinto Basins of California; and the San Luis Valley of Colorado. Much of the area predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for arsenic is within a belt of basins along the western portion of the Basin and Range Physiographic Province that includes almost all of Nevada and parts of California and Arizona. Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations are substantially lower than the drinking-water standards in much of the study area-about 93 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers was less than one-half the standard for nitrate as N (5.0 milligrams per liter), and 50 percent was less than one-half the standard for arsenic (5.0 micrograms per liter). The predicted concentrations and the improved understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of southwestern basin-fill aquifers to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment can be used by water managers as a qualitative tool to assess and protect the quality of groundwater resources in the Southwest.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New ↗

USGS2017

Platinum-group elements

The platinum-group elements (PGEs)—platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium—are metals that have similar physical and chemical properties and tend to occur together in nature. PGEs are indispensable to many industrial applications but are mined in only a few places. The availability and accessibility of PGEs could be disrupted by economic, environmental, political, and social events. The United States net import reliance as a percentage of apparent consumption is about 90 percent. PGEs have many industrial applications. They are used in catalytic converters to reduce carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon, and nitrous oxide emissions in automobile exhaust. The chemical industry requires platinum or platinum-rhodium alloys to manufacture nitric oxide, which is the raw material used to manufacture explosives, fertilizers, and nitric acid. In the petrochemical industry, platinum-supported catalysts are needed to refine crude oil and to produce aromatic compounds and high-octane gasoline. Alloys of PGEs are exceptionally hard and durable, making them the best known coating for industrial crucibles used in the manufacture of chemicals and synthetic materials. PGEs are used by the glass manufacturing industry in the production of fiberglass and flat-panel and liquid crystal displays. In the electronics industry, PGEs are used in computer hard disks, hybridized integrated circuits, and multilayer ceramic capacitors. Aside from their industrial applications, PGEs are used in such other fields as health, consumer goods, and finance. Platinum, for example, is used in medical implants, such as pacemakers, and PGEs are used in cancer-fighting drugs. Platinum alloys are an ideal choice for jewelry because of their white color, strength, and resistance to tarnish. Platinum, palladium, and rhodium in the form of coins and bars are also used as investment commodities, and various financial instruments based on the value of these PGEs are traded on major exchanges. PGEs are among the rarest metals; Earth’s upper crust contains only about 0.0005 part per million (ppm) platinum. Today, the average grade of PGEs in ores that are mined primarily for their PGE concentrations varies from 5 to 15 ppm, although the concentration of PGEs in hand-picked ore specimens may range from tens to hundreds of parts per million. More than 100 different minerals have one of the PGEs as an essential component. PGE minerals occur as native metals. They also occur as compounds with other transition metals (copper, iron, mercury, nickel, and silver), post-transition metals (bismuth, lead, and tin), metalloids (antimony, arsenic, and tellurium), and nonmetals (selenium and sulfur). From 1900 to 2011, approximately 14,200 metric tons of PGEs was produced, and roughly 95 percent of that production (13,500 metric tons) took place between 1960 and 2011. The breakdown of production by country shows that, since 1900, about 90 percent of the production came from South Africa and Russia. The secondary supply of platinum, palladium, and rhodium is obtained through the recycling of catalytic converters from end-of-life vehicles, jewelry, and electronic equipment. Recycled platinum, palladium, and rhodium provide a significant proportion of the world’s total supply; these secondary sources are sufficient to close the gap between world mine production and consumption. Exploration and mining companies report resources of about 104,000 metric tons of PGEs (including minor amounts of gold) in mineral deposits around the world that could be developed. For PGEs, almost all the reported production and identified resources are associated with deposits in three geologic features—the Bushveld Complex, which is a layered mafic-to-ultramafic intrusion in South Africa; the Great Dyke, which is a layered mafic-to-ultramafic intrusion in Zimbabwe; and sill-like intrusions associated with flood basalts in the Noril’sk-Talnakh area of Russia. The metallic forms of PGEs are generally considered to be inert. PGEs pose a risk to human health only in cases where individuals are occupationally exposed to synthetic PGE compounds, especially workers in precious-metal refineries. In the natural environment, background PGE concentrations are low in water, sediment, soil, and plants. Anthropogenic sources of PGEs in the environment include catalytic converters used in modern automobiles, platinum-based chemotherapy drugs, and smelter emissions. The abundance of sulfide minerals defines the environmental and geologic characteristics of PGE-enriched magmatic sulfide deposits; those deposits with the highest amount of sulfide minerals could have the highest environmental impact. Acid rock drainage from reef-type and contact-type deposits is unlikely because the ores and their host rocks contain low proportions of sulfide minerals. For some conduit-type orebodies with massive ores, mineral-processing techniques separate and produce concentrates of copper-, iron-, and nickel-bearing sulfide minerals; those with copper and nickel are processed to extract metal, but the iron-sulfide minerals, mainly pyrrhotite, are discarded as waste. This results in waste material with a high acid-generating potential. The most significant primary source of PGEs in the United States is a deposit in the Stillwater Complex, which is a layered igneous intrusion in Montana. Approximately 305 metric tons of platinum and palladium have been mined from the Stillwater Complex deposit since 1986. Exploration and development drilling indicate that another 2,200 metric tons are present. Mining has progressed to depths of 1,800 meters below the surface, but the bottom of the ore deposit has not been reached; geologic estimates suggest that another 1,000 to 6,200 metric tons of PGEs could be present at depth. In the future, PGEs may be mined from deposits found near the base of the Duluth Complex, which is a group of igneous intrusions in Minnesota.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2015

Critical metals in manganese nodules from the Cook Islands EEZ, abundances and distributions

The Cook Islands (CIs) Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) encompasses 1,977,000 km 2 and includes the Penrhyn and Samoa basins abyssal plains where manganese nodules flourish due to the availability of prolific nucleus material, slow sedimentation rates, and strong bottom currents. A group of CIs nodules was analyzed for mineralogical and chemical composition, which include many critical metals not before analyzed for CIs nodules. These nodules have varying sizes and nuclei material; however all are composed predominantly of δ-MnO 2 and X-ray amorphous iron oxyhydroxide. The mineralogy, Fe/Mn ratios, rare earth element contents, and slow growth rates (mean 1.9 mm/10 6 years) reflect formation primarily by hydrogenetic precipitation. The paucity of diagenetic input can be explained by low primary productivity at the surface and resultant low organic matter content in seafloor sediment, producing oxic seafloor and sub-seafloor environments. The nodules contain high mean contents of Co (0.41%), Ni (0.38%), Ti (1.20%), and total rare earth elements plus yttrium (REY; 0.167%), and also high contents of Mo, Nb, V, W, and Zr. Compiled data from a series of four cruises by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Mining agency of Japan from 1985 to 2000 were used to generate a map that defines the statistical distribution of nodule abundance throughout the EEZ, except the Manihiki Plateau. The abundance distribution map shows a belt of high nodule abundance (19–45 kg/m 2 ) that starts in the southeast corner of the EEZ, runs northwest, and also bifurcates into a SW trending branch. Small, isolated areas contain abundances of nodules of up to 58 kg/m 2 . Six ~ 20,000 km 2 areas of particularly high abundance were chosen to represent potential exploration areas, and maps for metal concentration were generated to visualize metal distribution and to extrapolate estimated metal tonnages within the six sites and the EEZ as a whole. Grades for Mn, Cu, and Ni are low in CIs nodules in areas of high abundance; however, Ti, Co, and REY show high contents where nodule abundances are high. Of the six areas identified to represent a range of metal contents, one at the northern end of the N-S abundance main belt optimizes the most metals and would yield the highest dry metric tons for Mn (61,002,292), Ni (1,247,834), Mo (186,166), V (356,247), W (30,215), and Zr (195,323). When compared with the Clarion–Clipperton Zone, the CIs nodules show higher nodule abundances (> 25 kg/m 2 over ~ 123,844 km 2 ), and are more enriched in the green-tech, high-tech, and energy metals Co, Ti, Te, Nb, REY, Pt, and Zr. The CIs EEZ shows a significant resource potential for these critical metals due to their high prices, high demand, and the high nodule abundance, which will allow for a smaller footprint for a 20-year mine site and therefore smaller environmental impact.

Ore Geology Reviews↗

USGS1988

Assessment of the role of bottomland hardwoods in sediment and erosion control

Drainage and clearing of bottomland hardwoods have long been recognized by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) as important impacts of Federal water projects in the lower Mississippi River Valley. More recently, the water quality impacts of such projects (e.g., increases in sediments, nutrients, and pesticides) have also become of concern. In 1984, in an effort to better define problems concerning wetland losses and water degradation, EPA initiated a cooperative project with the Western Energy and Land Use Team (now the National Ecology Research Center) of the Service. Three phases of the project were identified: 1. To collect existing literature and data; 2. To select, develop, and test the utility of methods to quantify the relationships between land use, cover types, soils, hydrology, and water quality (as represented by sediment); and 3. To apply selected methodologies to several sites within the Yazoo Basin of Mississippi to determine the, potential effectiveness of various management alternatives to reduce sediment yield, increase sediment deposition, and improve water quality. Methods development focused on linking a simulation of water and sediment movement to a computerized geographic information system. We had several objectives for the resulting model. We desired that it should: 1. Estimate the importance of bottomland and hardwoods as a cover type that performs the functions of erosion and sediment control, 2. Simulate effects of proportions of ' various cover types and their specific spatial configurations, 3. Be applicable to moderately large spatial areas with minimal site-specific calibration, 4. Simulate spatial patterns of sediment loss-gain over time, and 5. Represent both sediment detachment and transport. While it was recognized that impacts and management alternatives could be sorted roughly into landscape measures and channel measures, the decision was made to focus study efforts mainly on landscape measures. Landscape measures include altered drainage and flooding patterns, altered cover types (e.g., conversion of bottomland hardwoods to agricultural crops, reforestation of cropland to bottomland hardwoods, and creation of riparian buffer strips), altered cropping and tillage patterns, altered routing of water, and creation of buffer strips along wetlands and channel margins. Channel measures include vegetative bank stabilization, grade control structures, and regulation of channel water volume and velocity. During the first year of the study, EPA decided not to fund the third phase of the project. This required considerable rescoping of the project with the result that application of the sediment mobilization, routing, and deposition models to various management alternatives and portions of the Yazoo Basin was somewhat restricted. We believe, however, that this report will provide a good understanding of the various modes of sediment mobilization, transport, and deposition within the Yazoo Basin, as well as of the role of bottomland hardwoods. The model developed in this study could be applied to a variety of management or mitigation alternatives prior to implementation to determine their relative effectiveness. Policy, political, and socio-economic consequences of any proposed management/mitigation practice, however, must ultimately be taken into consideration by those charged with management of water resources within the Yazoo Basin before any practice is implemented. This study makes no effort to judge the feasibility of management alternatives in this regard.

Report↗