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Coastal development

As a focal point of global urbanization, the coastal zone faces multiple pressures from human activities, land-sea interactions and natural disasters. Over the past five years, population, communities and infrastructure in coastal zones have consistently grown, alongside gradual economic recovery. Coastal pollution has become more complex owing to climate change and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, necessitating enhanced monitoring and control measures. Public participation has been diversified but still faces difficulties in awareness-raising, policy strengthening, equity and comprehensiveness. For the coastal zone, integrated management will continue to be needed in order to achieve a balance between economic performance and ecological environment. Climate change will be a key factor to consider in every aspect of coastal zone development. To build inclusive, safe and disaster-resilient communities while reducing negative environmental impacts and achieving a sustainable coastal economy, greater emphasis must be placed on green-grey infrastructure, ecosystem-based approaches, institutional integration and sociocultural aspects. In addition, urgent breakthroughs are needed in areas such as data collection, technology synthesis, integrated land-sea management, transboundary cooperation and policies and technical innovations related to natural and nature-based features and nature-based solutions.

Report↗

Mississippi river sediment diversions and coastal wetland sustainability: Synthesis of responses to freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs

Management and restoration of coastal wetlands require insight into how inundation, salinity, and the availability of mineral sediment and nutrients interact to influence ecosystem functions that control sustainability. The Mississippi River Delta, which ranks among the world's largest and most productive coastal wetland complexes, has experienced extensive deterioration over the last century due, in large part, to enhanced vulnerability to relative sea-level rise and lateral erosion caused by a combination of natural processes and anthropogenic modifications of hydrology. This land loss crisis has prompted the State of Louisiana to develop a comprehensive restoration plan that includes constructing and implementing a series of large-scale sediment diversions that will reconnect sediment- and nutrient-rich Mississippi River water to adjacent bays, estuaries, and wetlands. Sediment loading through diversions is predicted to enhance the long-term sustainability of coastal wetlands; however, the additive effects of increased inundation, abrubt changes in the salinity regime, and high nutrient loads on wetland plant growth and organic matter (SOM) decomposition rates, which help regulate accretion and elevation change, is uncertain. Therefore, this review attempts to synthesize existing information to inform predictions of the interactive effects of diversions on these drivers of coastal wetland sustainability. The data suggest that sediment deposition within an optimal elevation range will increase the overall productivity of existing wetlands where prolonged flooding does not counter this effect by limiting plant growth. A reduction in salinity may increase plant productivity and cause vegetation shifts to less salt tolerant species, but seasonal swings in salinity may have unforeseen consequences. Nutrient-loading is predicted to lead to greater aboveground productivity, which, in turn, can facilitate additional sediment trapping; however, belowground productivity may decline, particularly in areas where sediment deposition is limited. In areas experiencing net deposition, nutrient-enrichment is predicted to enhance belowground growth into new sediment and contribute to positive effects on soil organic matter accumulation, accretion, and elevation change. Thus, we contend that sediment input is essential for limiting the negative effects of flooding and nutrient-enrichment on wetland processes. These conclusions are generally supported by the biophysical feedbacks occurring in existing prograding deltas of the Mississippi River Delta complex.

Louisiana↗

Fluvial delivery and wave resuspension of sediment in a sheltered, urbanized Pacific Northwest estuary

The sequence and timing of sediment delivery and redistribution in coastal systems is important for shoreline stability, ecosystem services, and remediation planning. In temperate estuaries, understanding the role of fluvial sediment delivery and dispersal relative to wind and wave remobilization processes is particularly important to address the fate of contaminants, many of which adsorb to fine particles, and to assess changes in coastal systems under projected changes in climate. Here we present an integrated analysis of observations at multiple timescales to evaluate sediment dynamics and the sedimentary coupling between fluvial and oceanographic processes within Bellingham Bay, Washington, USA, an urban estuary. Time-series data of currents, waves, and turbidity at four moorings along with geochemical data from grab samples and cores of seabed sediment from across the bay are contrasted with the dynamics of the Nooksack River, its fluvial sediment source. Even during large (5-yr return interval) river-flood events, water-column suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) near the bed on the outer delta topset was not correlated with Nooksack River runoff and was instead closely correlated with local wind-wave height. In contrast, near-surface SSC was strongly correlated with fluvial discharge, suggesting intense water-column suspended-sediment stratification during flood events. Grain-size and geochemical ( 7 "> 7 Be and excess 210 "> 210 Pb) results from seabed-sediment samples and historical bathymetric measurements of the subaqueous Nooksack River delta reveal spatial gradients of fluvial and wave influence and sediment-accumulation rates. Analysis of historical bathymetric surveys of the Nooksack River delta combined with the geochemical data reveal that about 75% of the fluvial sediment load can be accounted for in the Bellingham Bay receiving system. Studies of this type in urbanized coastal settings can help address ecological and geological questions regarding the risks from contaminants associated with fine-grained sediment, predict longer-term delta morphological evolution, and inform managers planning future coastal restoration efforts

Washington↗

Detection and characterization of coastal tidal wetland change in the northeastern US using Landsat time series

Coastal tidal wetlands are highly altered ecosystems exposed to substantial risk due to widespread and frequent land-use change coupled with sea-level rise, leading to disrupted hydrologic and ecologic functions and ultimately, significant reduction in climate resiliency. Knowing where and when the changes have occurred, and the nature of those changes, is important for coastal communities and natural resource management . Large-scale mapping of coastal tidal wetland changes is extremely difficult due to their inherent dynamic nature. To bridge this gap, we developed an automated algorithm for DEtection and Characterization of cOastal tiDal wEtlands change (DECODE) using dense Landsat time series. DECODE consists of three elements, including spectral break detection, land cover classification and change characterization. DECODE assembles all available Landsat observations and introduces a water level regressor for each pixel to flag the spectral breaks and estimate harmonic time-series models for the divided temporal segments. Each temporal segment is classified (e.g., vegetated wetlands, open water, and others – including unvegetated areas and uplands) based on the phenological characteristics and the synthetic surface reflectance values calculated from the harmonic model coefficients, as well as a generic rule-based classification system. This harmonic model-based approach has the advantage of not needing the acquisition of satellite images at optimal conditions (i.e., low tide status) to avoid underestimating coastal vegetation caused by the tidal fluctuation. At the same time, DECODE can also characterize different kinds of changes including land cover change and condition change (i.e., land cover modification without conversion). We used DECODE to track status of coastal tidal wetlands in the northeastern United States from 1986 to 2020. The overall accuracy of land cover classification and change detection is approximately 95.8% and 99.8%, respectively. The vegetated wetlands and open water were mapped with user's accuracy of 94.6% and 99.0%, and producer's accuracy of 98.1% and 93.5%, respectively. The cover change and condition change were mapped with user's accuracy of 68.0% and 80.0%, and producer's accuracy of 80.5% and 97.1%, respectively. Approximately 3283 km 2 of the coastal landscape within our study area in the northeastern United States changed at least once (12% of the study area), and condition changes were the dominant change type (84.3%). Vegetated coastal tidal wetland decreased consistently (~2.6 km 2 per year) in the past 35 years, largely due to conversion to open water in the context of sea-level rise.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Net widening of Southern California beaches

Human impacts from dams reduce river sediment fluxes and are primary causes of coastal erosion worldwide. Here we provide new satellite-derived shoreline observation techniques to examine beach area trends across the diverse coastal settings of California. Contrary to global trends, these data reveal that the most heavily urbanized and dammed region of southern California experienced net beach growth of over 2 million m 2 during 1984-2024. While several beaches experienced severe erosion, overall widening is explained by sufficient sediment supply and concentrated widening from longshore transport captured at coastal structures and in littoral convergence zones. These results indicate that adequate sediment sources exist in this human-modified landscape to mitigate coastal erosion, but that this sediment is not effectively distributed to vulnerable beaches. This highlights the critical role that longshore sediment transport plays in long-term beach trends and illuminates management opportunities for coastal sustainability at the regional scale.

California↗

Forecasts of coastal change hazards

Model predictions of severe storm impacts provide coastal residents, emergency managers, and partner organizations valuable predictive information for planning and response to extreme storm events. The foundation of this work is a USGS-developed numerical model to forecast storm-induced coastal water levels and expected coastal change, including dune erosion, overwash, and inundation. The model is operated in three modes: generalized scenarios, real-time storms, and an operational forecast, with each mode requiring slightly different water level inputs. To evaluate and improve the accuracy of the models, we collect data on water levels and coastal change. In particular, observations before, after, and during storm conditions are used to test the different model applications. Forecast validation for Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Irma (2017) illustrate three cases with demonstrated forecast skill and three cases with poor skill, and reveal elements of the modeling and/or testing approach which require improvement.

Conference Paper↗

Managing agricultural wetlands for waterbirds in the coastal regions of Louisiana, U.S.A.

Rice and/or crawfish are cultivated in over 225,000 ha of shallow earthen impoundments within 160 km of the Gulf of Mexico along the coast of Louisiana. The region includes both the Gulf Coastal Plain and Prairie and the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Annual loss of 4,475 ha of coastal wetlands in Louisiana due to subsidence, erosion, and rising sea level has significantly reduced desirable freshwater habitat in the region. The suite of resident, migrant, breeding, and wintering waterbirds depending on this region includes grebes, pelicans, cormorants, anhingas, wading birds, waterfowl, coots, rails, gallinules, shorebirds, gulls, terns, and kingfishers. These taxa utilize the artificial freshwater wetland habitat provided by the agricultural wetlands. Numerous other birds utilize riparian areas associated with these artificial wetlands. Crawfish ponds are especially valuable cool season habitat for predaceous waterbirds because they provide shallow water systems rich in invertebrate and small vertebrate prey during the period from mid-autumn through mid-spring when most rice fields are drained. Because most crawfish ponds are not drained until late spring or early summer, predictable, food-rich, shallow water waterbird habitat is available throughout the region when rice fields are being cultivated for rice production. Incorporation of crawfish management into government-sponsored land conservation programs should encourage land owners to sustain standing water habitat outside of program mandated fill/drain requirements. Farmers could adjust the times when their impoundments are filled or drained to maximize benefits to many species, especially migrating shorebirds.

Louisiana↗

USGS ground-water flow model : an essential tool for managing the water supply of the Virginia Coastal Plain

Virginia needs a reliable water supply to sustain its growing population and expanding economy. In 1990, the aquifers in the Coastal Plain supplied about 100 million gallons per day (mgd) to the citizens, businesses, and industries of Virginia. It is estimated that by the year 2000, demand will increase by another 10 mgd and likely will continue to increase in future years. Ground water is the only source of usable water in rural areas of the Coastal Plain and increasingly is being used to support a growing urban population. Current withdrawals have led to declining water levels in most Coastal Plain aquifers. Further declines are likely to occur, posing a threat that saltwater will move into parts of these freshwater aquifers.

Fact Sheet↗

Collections management plan for the U.S. Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center samples repository

Since 2002, the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Samples Repository has been supporting U.S. Geological Survey research by providing secure storage for geological, geochemical, and biological samples, organizing and actively inventorying these sample collections, and providing researchers access to these scientific collections for study and reuse. Over the years, storage facilities have changed, and new collections management strategies have been adapted as sample collections have grown and as research programs and focuses have shifted. The commitment of the samples repository to preserve and provide physical samples for future research, however, has remained the same. This report documents the collections management plan developed and implemented by the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Samples Repository to manage the center’s scientific collections.

Massachusetts↗

Collections management plan for the U.S. Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Samples Repository

Since 2002, the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Samples Repository has been supporting research by providing secure storage for geological, biological, and geochemical samples; maintaining organization and an active inventory of these sample collections; and providing researchers access to these scientific collections for study and reuse. Over the years, local storage facilities have changed and new collections management strategies have been adapted as sample collections have grown and as research programs and focuses have shifted. The commitment of the Samples Repository to preserve and provide physical samples for future research, however, has remained the same. This report documents the collections management plan developed and implemented by the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Samples Repository to manage its scientific collections.

Open-File Report↗

Barrier Island Shorelines Extracted from Landsat Imagery

Introduction Changes to barrier islands occur at time scales that vary from the few hours it takes an individual storm to pass (Morton, 2008) to the millennia it takes for coastal systems to undergo geologic evolution. Developing an understanding of how barrier islands will respond to climate change, sea level rise, and major storms over a range of time scales is relevant to studies of physical, geological, ecological, and societal processes and will help to guide and improve management of our coastal resources (Sallenger and others, 1987). Observations of coastal processes made over a range of spatial and temporal scales and from a variety of instrument platforms (for example, in situ and remote remote sensing) are required to understand and eventually predict the evolution of coastal systems. The deployment of Landsat and other earth-observing satellites within the last few decades has provided an opportunity to observe barrier islands at frequent intervals, often many times a year. This sample frequency is much higher and the spatial coverage much greater than most routine high-resolution topographic surveys (Guy and others, 2014). In addition, the historical record of these datasets have become long enough to document shorter- (that is, annual) and longer-term (that is, decadal) changes from a single data source. Certain aspects of barrier island morphology, such as island size, shape, and position, can be determined from these images and can indicate erosion, land loss, and island breakup (McBride and others, 1989; Plant and Guy, 2013). The shoreline is a common variable used as a metric for coastal erosion or change (Himmelstoss and others, 2010). Although shorelines are often extracted from topographic data (for example, ground-based surveys and light detection and ranging [lidar]), image-based shorelines, corrected for their inherent uncertainties (Moore and others, 2006), have provided much of our understanding of long-term shoreline change because they pre-date routine lidar elevation survey methods. Image-based shorelines continue to be valuable because of their higher temporal resolution compared to costly airborne lidar surveys. A method for extracting sandy shorelines from 30-meter (m) resolution Landsat imagery is presented here.

Open-File Report↗

Evaluation of airborne lidar elevation surfaces for propagation of coastal inundation: the importance of hydrologic connectivity

Detailed information about coastal inundation is vital to understanding dynamic and populated areas that are impacted by storm surge and flooding. To understand these natural hazard risks, lidar elevation surfaces are frequently used to model inundation in coastal areas. A single-value surface method is sometimes used to inundate areas in lidar elevation surfaces that are below a specified elevation value. However, such an approach does not take into consideration hydrologic connectivity between elevation grids cells resulting in inland areas that should be hydrologically connected to the ocean, but are not. Because inland areas that should drain to the ocean are hydrologically disconnected by raised features in a lidar elevation surface, simply raising the water level to propagate coastal inundation will lead to inundation uncertainties. We took advantage of this problem to identify hydrologically disconnected inland areas to point out that they should be considered for coastal inundation, and that a lidar-based hydrologic surface should be developed with hydrologic connectivity prior to inundation analysis. The process of achieving hydrologic connectivity with hydrologic-enforcement is not new, however, the application of hydrologically-enforced lidar elevation surfaces for improved coastal inundation mapping as approached in this research is innovative. In this article, we propagated a high-resolution lidar elevation surface in coastal Staten Island, New York to demonstrate that inland areas lacking hydrologic connectivity to the ocean could potentially be included in inundation delineations. For inland areas that were hydrologically disconnected, we evaluated if drainage to the ocean was evident, and calculated an area exceeding 11 ha (~0.11 km 2 ) that could be considered in inundation delineations. We also assessed land cover for each inland area to determine the type of physical surfaces that would be potentially impacted if the inland areas were considered as part of a coastal inundation. A visual analysis indicated that developed, medium intensity and palustrine forested wetland land cover types would be impacted for those locations. This article demonstrates that hydrologic connectivity is an important factor to consider when inundating a lidar elevation surface. This information is needed for inundation monitoring and management in sensitive coastal regions.

Remote Sensing↗

Optimizing historic preservation under climate change: Decision support for cultural resource adaptation planning in national parks

Climate change poses great challenges for cultural resource management, particularly in coastal areas. Cultural resources, such as historic buildings, in coastal areas are vulnerable to climate impacts including inundation, deterioration , and destruction from sea-level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion. However, research that assesses the trade-offs between actions for protecting vulnerable and valuable cultural resources under budgetary constraints is limited. This study focused on developing a decision support model for managing historic buildings at Cape Lookout National Seashore. We designed the Optimal Preservation Decision Support (OptiPres) model to: (a) identify optimal, annual adaptation actions for historic buildings across a 30-year planning horizon, (b) quantify trade-offs between different actions and the timing of adaptation actions under constrained budgets, and (c) estimate the effectiveness of budget allocations on the resource value of historic buildings. Our analysis of the model suggests that: (1) funding allocation thresholds may exist for national parks to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historic buildings under climate change, (2) the quantitative assessment of trade-offs among alternative adaptation actions provides generalizable guidance for decision makers about the dynamics of their managed system, and (3) the OptiPres model can identify cost-efficient approaches to allocate funding to maintain the historical value of buildings vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Therefore, the OptiPres model, while not designed as a prescriptive decision tool, allows managers to understand the consequences of proposed adaptation actions. The OptiPres model can guide park managers to make cost-effective climate adaptation decisions for historic buildings more transparently and robustly.

Land Use Policy↗

Hawaii Beach Monitoring Program: Profile locations

Coastal erosion is widespread and locally severe in Hawaii and other low-latitude areas. Typical erosion rates in Hawaii are in the range of 15 to 30 cm/yr (0.5 to 1 ft/yr; Hwang, 1981; Sea Engineering, Inc., 1988; Makai Ocean Engineering, Inc. and Sea Engineering, Inc.,1991). Recent studies on Oahu (Fletcher et al., 1997; Coyne et al., 1996) have shown that nearly 24%, or 27.5 km (17.1 mi) of an original 115 km (71.6 mi) of sandy shoreline (1940's) has been either significantly narrowed (17.2 km; 10.7 mi) or lost (10.3 km; 6.4 mi). Nearly one-quarter of the islands' beaches have been significantly degraded over the last half-century and all shorelines have been affected to some degree. Oahu shorelines are by far the most studied, however, beach loss has been identified on the other islands as well, with nearly 13 km (8 mi) of beach likely lost due to shoreline hardening on Maui (Makai Engineering, Inc. and Sea Engineering, Inc., 1991). Causes of coastal erosion and beach loss in Hawaii are numerous but, unfortunately, poorly understood and rarely quantified. Construction of shoreline protection structures limits coastal land loss, but does not alleviate beach loss and may actually accelerate the problem by prohibiting sediment deposition in front of the structures. Other factors contributing to beach loss include: a) reduced sediment supply; b) large storms; and, c) sea-level rise. Reduction in sand supply, either from landward or seaward (primarily reef) sources, can have a myriad of causes. Obvious causes such as beach sand mining and emplacement of structures that interrupt natural sediment transport pathways or prevent access to backbeach sand deposits, remove sediment from the active littoral system. More complex issues of sediment supply can be related to reef health and carbonate production which, in turn, may be linked to changes in water quality. Second, the accumulated effect of large storms is to transport sediment beyond the littoral system. Third, rising sea level leads to a natural landward migration of the shoreline. Dramatic examples of coastal erosion, such as houses and roads falling into the sea, are rare in Hawaii, but the impact of erosion is still very serious. The signs of erosion are much more subtle and typically start as a "temporary" hardening structure designed to mitigate an immediate problem which, eventually, results in a proliferation of structures along a stretch of coast. The natural ability of the sandy shoreline to respond to changes in wave climate is lost. The overall goals of this study are to document the coastal erosion history in Hawaii, determine the causal factors of that erosion, provide high-quality data for other "end-users" in applied studies (i.e. coastal engineers, planners, and managers), and increase our general understanding of low-latitude coastal geologic development. This project involves close cooperation between the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program and the University of Hawaii.

Hawai'i↗

Simulation of ground-water flow in coastal Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida-predevelopment, 1980, and 2000

A digital model was developed to simulate steady-state ground-water flow in a 42,155-square-mile area of coastal Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida. The model was developed to (1) understand and refine the conceptual model of regional ground-water flow, (2) serve as a framework for the development of digital subregional ground-water flow and solute-transport models, and (3) serve as a tool for future evaluations of hypothetical pumping scenarios used to facilitate water management in the coastal area. Single-density ground-water flow was simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference code MODFLOW-2000 for mean-annual conditions during predevelopment (pre?1900) and the years 1980 and 2000. The model comprises seven layers: the surficial aquifer system, the Brunswick aquifer system, the Upper Floridan aquifer, the Lower Floridan aquifer, and the intervening confining units. A combination of boundary conditions was applied, including a general-head boundary condition on the top active cells of the model and a time-variable fixed-head boundary condition along part of the southern lateral boundary. Simulated heads for 1980 and 2000 conditions indicate a good match to observed values, based on a plus-or-minus 10-foot (ft) calibration target and calibration statistics. The root-mean square of residual water levels for the Upper Floridan aquifer was 13.0 ft for the 1980 calibration and 9.94 ft for the 2000 calibration. Some spatial patterns of residuals were indicated for the 1980 and 2000 simulations, and are likely a result of model-grid cell size and insufficiently detailed hydraulic-property and pumpage data in some areas. Simulated potentiometric surfaces for predevelopment, 1980, and 2000 conditions all show major flow system features that are indicated by estimated peotentiometric maps. During 1980?2000, simulated water levels at the centers of pumping at Savannah and Brunswick rose more than 20 ft and 8 ft, respectively, in response to decreased pumping. Simulated drawdown exceeded 10 ft in the Upper Floridan aquifer across much of the western half of the model area, with drawdown exceeding 20 ft along parts of the western, northern, and southern boundaries where irrigation pumping increased during this period. From predevelopment to 2000 conditions, the simulated water budget showed an increase in inflow from, and decrease in outflow to, the general-head boundaries, and a reversal from net seaward flow to net landward flow across the coastline. Simulated changes in recharge and discharge distribution from predevelopment to 2000 conditions showed an increase in extent and magnitude of net recharge cells in the northern part of the model area, and a decrease in discharge or change to recharge in cells containing major streams and beneath major pumping centers. The model is relatively sensitive to pumping and the controlling head at the fixed-head boundary and less sensitive to the distribution of aquifer properties in general. Model limitations include: (1) its spatial scale and discretization, (2) the extent to which data are available to physically define the flow system, (3) the type of boundary conditions and controlling parameters used, (4) uncertainty in the distribution of pumping, and (5) uncertainty in field-scale hydraulic properties. The model could be improved with more accurate estimates of ground-water pumpage and better characterization of recharge and discharge.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗

Louisiana Adaptive Management Status and Improvement Report: Vision and Recommendations

As part of the process to increase implementation of adaptive management for ecosystem-based coastal restoration within Louisiana, we aim for this report to be broadly applicable across planning processes as well as funding and implementing entities. It compiles technical knowledge and guidance summarized as key findings through the text which lead to eight priority recommendations to improve application of adaptive management in Louisiana. This report identifies critical linkage points and opportunities for knowledge and data transfers within, and among, agencies in Louisiana. The primary focus is on CPRA and others affiliated with the LA TIG. This report presents a consensus based common vision for adaptive management of coastal restoration implementation in Louisiana. As CPRA is the primary agency responsible for coordinating and facilitating coastal restoration projects within the state of Louisiana, the primary source of information and experience was collated from personnel and processes carried out at CPRA. To capture needs and mechanisms ,across agencies, extensive input was also received from the LA TIG, representing the other state and federal Trustees.

Louisiana↗

Physical Climate Forces

Key Findings The coasts of the U.S. are home to many large urban centers and important infrastructure such seaports, airports, transportation routes, oil import and refining facilities, power plants, and military bases. All are vulnerable to varying degrees to impacts of global warming such as sea-level rise, storms, and flooding. High Confidence. Physical observations collected over the past several decades from the land, coasts, oceans, and the atmosphere, as well as environmental indicators, show that warming and some related environmental changes are occurring globally at rates greater than can be expected due to natural processes. These climate-related changes are highly varied, but some are likely due in large part to anthropogenically increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and altered land surface properties. High Confidence. Findings from many independent scientific studies conclude that these changes are consistent with global warming. The primary changes observed are rising sea level and average global air, land, and ocean temperatures; heightening temperature and precipitation extremes in some regions; and increasing levels of oceans acidification and rates of glacier and ice sheet melt. High Confidence. Most coastal landforms, such as barrier islands, deltas, bays, estuaries, wetlands, coral reefs, are highly dynamic and sensitive to even small changes in physical forces and feedbacks such as warming, storms, ocean circulation, waves and currents, flooding, sediment budgets, and sea-level rise. High Confidence. The effects of sea-level rise on coasts vary considerably from region-to-region and over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Land subsidence in certain locations causes relative sea-level rise to exceed global mean sea-level rise. Land uplift such as that found in Alaska and the Northwestern Pacific coast can reduce effects of global mean rise. The effects will be greatest and most immediate on low-relief, low-elevation parts of the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico, mid-Atlantic states, northern Alaska, Hawaii, and island territories and especially on coasts containing deltas, coastal plains, tidal wetlands, bays, estuaries, and coral reefs. Beaches and wetlands on steep cliff coasts and shores backed with seawalls may be unable to move landward or maintain their landform with sea-level rise. Many areas of the coast are especially vulnerable because of the often detrimental effects of development on natural processes. High Confidence. The gradual inundation from recent sea-level rise is evident in many regions such as the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana where high tides regularly flood roads and areas that were previously dry, and in stands of “ghost forests,” in which trees are killed by intrusion of brackish water. High Confidence. Sea level change and storms are dominant driving forces of coastal change as observed in the geologic record of coastal landforms. Increasingly, sea-level rise will become a hazard for coastal regions because of continued global mean sea-level rise, including possibly accelerated rates of rise that increase risk to coastal regions. As the global climate continues to warm and ice sheets melt, coasts will become more dynamic and coastal cities and low-lying areas will be increasingly exposed to erosion, inundation, and flooding. High Confidence. No coordinated, interagency process exists in the U.S. for identifying agreed upon global mean sea-level rise projections for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, or management, even though this is a critical first step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. High Confidence. Global sea level rose at a rate of 1.7 millimeters/year during the 20th century. The rate has increased to over 3 millimeters/year in the past 20 years and scientific studies suggest high confidence (>9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level will rise 0.2 to 2 meters by the end of this century. Some regions such as Louisiana and the Chesapeake Bay will experience greater relative rise due to factors such as land subsidence, gravitational redistribution of ice-sheet meltwater, ocean circulation changes, and regional ocean thermostatic effects. Other regions undergoing land uplift, such as Alaska, will experience lesser sea-level rise. High Confidence. Variability in the location and time-of-year of storm genesis can influence landfalling storm characteristics, and even small changes can lead to large changes in landfalling location and impact. Although scientists have only low confidence in the sign of projected changes to the coast of storm-related hazards that depend on a combination of factors such as frequency, track, intensity, and storm size, any sea-level rise is virtually certain to exacerbate storm-related hazards. High Confidence. Although sea-level rise and climate change have occurred in the past, the increasing human presence in the coastal zone will make the impacts different for the future. Land use and other human activities often inhibit the natural response of physical processes and adaptation by plants and animals. In some areas, erosion and wetland loss are common because sediment budgets have been reduced, while, in other regions, excess sediment is in-filling harbors, channels, and bays. High Confidence. Observations continue to indicate an ongoing, warming-induced intensification of the hydrologic cycle that will likely result in heavier precipitation events and, combined with sea-level rise and storm surge, an increased flooding severity in some coastal areas, particularly the northeast U.S. Moderate Confidence. Temperature is primarily driving environmental change in the Alaskan coastal zone. Sea ice and permafrost make northern regions particularly susceptible to temperature change. For example, an increase of two degrees Celsius could basically transform much of Alaska from frozen to unfrozen, with extensive implications. Portions of the north and west coast of Alaska are seeing dramatic increases in the rate of coastal erosion and flooding due to sea ice loss and permafrost melting. As a consequence, several coastal communities are planning to relocate to safer locations. Relocation is a difficult decision that is likely to become more common in the future for many coastal regions. High Confidence. Methane is a primary greenhouse gas. Large reserves of methane are bound-up in Alaska’s frozen permafrost. These are susceptible to disturbance and methane release if the Arctic continues to warm. The additional methane released may result in even greater greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. High Confidence.

Book chapter↗

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Pacifica, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Pacifica map area is located in northern California, on the Pacific coast of the San Francisco Peninsula about 10 kilometers south of the Golden Gate. The map area extends from Daly City, through Pacifica, to the small coastal community of Montara. Much of the coastal zone is managed by either the State of California or local governments, including Thornton Beach State Park, Mussel Rock Park, Pacifica State Beach, Gray Whale Cove State Beach, and Montara State Beach. The major structure in the transform boundary between the Pacific and North American tectonic plates, the northwest-striking San Andreas Fault, cuts through the map area, crossing the shoreline near Mussel Rock before continuing offshore. The epicenter of the great 1906 California earthquake is located on the offshore part of the San Andreas Fault Zone a few kilometers north of the map area. The map area is located at the northwest end of the Santa Cruz Mountains, much of which has been uplifted in the last 400,000 years. Southwest of the San Andreas Fault Zone, this uplift has resulted in a highly variable coastal morphology characterized by long, narrow beaches bounded by steep cliffs or marine terraces, small pocket beaches surrounded by rocky promontories, and steep, narrow coastal watersheds. Geologic units mapped along the coast include sedimentary, volcanic, and metamorphic rocks of the Franciscan Complex; Cretaceous granitic rocks; Tertiary sedimentary rocks; and Quaternary coastal marine terraces, deep-seated and shallow landslides, and beach and sand dune deposits, all of which contribute sediment to the coastal zone. In contrast to the more rural coastal zone to the south, the highly urbanized coastal zone north of Mussel Rock and the San Andreas Fault Zone is characterized by a narrow beach bounded by steep, 50- to 120-m-high cliffs made up of sand, silt, and clay of the Pliocene and Pleistocene Merced Formation, the source of numerous landslides. Two large landslides along “Northridge bluff” in 2003 and 2007 had estimated volumes of 305,800 to 382,300 m 3 and 120,800 m 3 , respectively. Coastal landslides also are an issue to the south between Mussel Rock and Mori Point, even as bluffs diminish in height and pocket beaches transition to a more continuous strand bounded by Quaternary-age dunes and low-lying marine terraces. Mori Point, a coastal promontory in Pacifica underlain by rocks of the Franciscan Complex, rises abruptly to a height of 90 m from the shoreline. Pocket beaches characterize the shoreline from Mori Point south to Shelter Cove, the largest of which, Pacifica State Beach, is at the mouth of San Pedro Creek. The coastal zone south of Pacifica, which stretches from Shelter Cove to Montara and includes Point San Pedro and Devils Slide, lies at the northwest end of San Pedro Mountain (underlain largely by early Tertiary sedimentary rocks) and Montara Mountain (underlain by Cretaceous granitic rocks). Elevations at Montara Mountain exceed 500 m just 4 km from the shoreline, and steep cliffs along the coast are as high as 275 m. This rugged terrain results in numerous rocky promontories, small pocket beaches, and large coastal landslides. Slope failures along Devils Slide are notorious for closing California Highway 1, creating such a large and persistent problem that the California Department of Transportation has bypassed this coastal section by tunneling through San Pedro Mountain; the tunnel was completed and the new section of highway opened in 2013. Coastal relief diminishes at Montara in the southernmost part of the map area, where the shoreline is bounded by 10- to 20-m-high marine terraces. Throughout the year, this part of the coast is exposed to the north Pacific swell, the southern swell, northwest wind waves, and local wind waves. The north Pacific swell dominates in winter months, having wave heights that range from 2 to 10 m at offshore buoys and wave periods that range from 10 to 25 s. During summer months, the largest waves come from the southern swell, generated by storms in the south Pacific and offshore of Central America. Characteristically, these swells have smaller wave heights (0.3–3 m) but similarly long wave periods (10–25 s). Local wind waves are most common from October to April, whereas northwest wind waves affect the coast throughout the year. These two wind-wave regimes typically have wave heights of 1 to 4 m and short wave periods (3–10 s). Unlike many other parts of the California coast where sediment is supplied primarily from river and (or) stream runoff, sediment supply to the offshore along this part of northern California is a complex mixture of (1) sand transported from the coast north of the Golden Gate, (2) sediment transported to the coast through the San Francisco Bay via the Golden Gate and then dispersed over the adjacent ebb-tide delta, and (3) varying volumes of sediment eroded from adjacent steep coastal bluffs caused by wave-induced landslides and other erosional events. Additionally, since the 1980s, coastal erosion south of the Golden Gate has increased substantially between Ocean Beach (on the west coast of San Francisco, about 5 km north of the map area) and Point San Pedro. The combined sediment load is transported southward along the coast by the generally north-to-south alongshore current, which develops in response to the energetic winter-wave climate associated with the north Pacific swell. Overall, beaches in the map area have a long-term erosional trend, except near Mussel Rock where a long-term accretionary trend may reflect increased sediment supply from landslides. Beach-front riprap armoring and retaining walls are used locally to protect the shoreline from seasonal storm waves, most notably between Mussel Rock and Mori Point. The continental shelf in the map area is about 40 km wide, with water depths at the shelf break that range from about 80 to 120 m. Within California’s State Waters, the midshelf to inner shelf areas are characterized by a relatively flat, shallow (water depths of as much as 44 m) seafloor that dips gently (about 0.2° to 0.3°) westward. The seafloor is composed primarily of unconsolidated Holocene sediment (marine deposits), as well as some nearshore bedrock outcrops that consist primarily of rocks of the Tertiary Purisima Formation and also Cretaceous plutonic rocks (granite or granodiorite).

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