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Results for “Climate Dynamics”

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At least 379 records · Page 21Linked to original sources

USGS2011

The influence of sea-level rise on fringing reef sediment dynamics: field observations and numerical modeling

While most climate projections suggest that sea level may rise on the order of 0.5-1.0 m by 2100, it is not clear how fluid flow and sediment transport on fringing reefs might change in response to this rapid sea-level rise. Field observations and numerical modeling suggest that an increase in water depth on the order of 0.5-1.0 m on a fringing reef flat would result in larger significant wave heights and wave-driven shear stresses, which, in turn, would result in an increase in both the size and quantity of sediment that can be resuspended from the seabed or eroded from coastal plain deposits. Greater wave- and wind-driven currents would develop on the reef flat with increasing water depth, increasing the offshore flux of water and sediment from the inner reef flat to the outer reef flat and fore reef where coral growth is typically greatest.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2008

Pacific Ocean and Cenozoic evolution of climate

The Pacific Ocean has played a major role in climate evolution throughout the Cenozoic (65–0 Ma). It is a fundamental component of global heat transport and circulation, the dominant locus of primary productivity, and, consequently, the largest reservoir for carbon exchange between the oceans and the atmosphere. A satisfactory understanding of the Cenozoic evolutionary history of the Pacific and its impact on global climate is currently data-limited. Nevertheless, the large dynamic range of Cenozoic conditions sets the stage to greatly expand our understanding of global climate and biogeochemical cycles. Past Earth “experiments” are particularly useful to understand interactions between climate and geosystems under different greenhouse gas loads. We highlight in this review four important problems in which the Pacific played a major role: the effect of changing geographic boundary conditions on ocean circulation; interactions between the carbon cycle and climate; the Pacific Ocean's influence on North American climate and its water cycle; and the gradual evolution of climate systems.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2009

Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2012

Modeling transport of nutrients & sediment loads into Lake Tahoe under climate change

The outputs from two General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emissions scenarios were downscaled and bias-corrected to develop regional climate change projections for the Tahoe Basin. For one model—the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory or GFDL model—the daily model results were used to drive a distributed hydrologic model. The watershed model used an energy balance approach for computing evapotranspiration and snowpack dynamics so that the processes remain a function of the climate change projections. For this study, all other aspects of the model (i.e. land use distribution, routing configuration, and parameterization) were held constant to isolate impacts of climate change projections. The results indicate that (1) precipitation falling as rain rather than snow will increase, starting at the current mean snowline, and moving towards higher elevations over time; (2) annual accumulated snowpack will be reduced; (3) snowpack accumulation will start later; and (4) snowmelt will start earlier in the year. Certain changes were masked (or counter-balanced) when summarized as basin-wide averages; however, spatial evaluation added notable resolution. While rainfall runoff increased at higher elevations, a drop in total precipitation volume decreased runoff and fine sediment load from the lower elevation meadow areas and also decreased baseflow and nitrogen loads basin-wide. This finding also highlights the important role that the meadow areas could play as high-flow buffers under climatic change. Because the watershed model accounts for elevation change and variable meteorological patterns, it provided a robust platform for evaluating the impacts of projected climate change on hydrology and water quality.

Nevada;California↗

USGS2014

Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

USGS2020

Critical shifts in trace metal transport and remediation performance under future low river flows

Exceptionally low river flows are predicted to become more frequent and more severe across many global regions as a consequence of climate change. Investigations of trace metal transport dynamics across streamflows reveal stark changes in water chemistry, metal transformation processes, and remediation effectiveness under exceptionally low-flow conditions. High spatial resolution hydrological and water quality datasets indicate that metal-rich groundwater will exert a greater control on stream water chemistry and metal concentrations because of climate change. This is because the proportion of stream water sourced from mined areas and mineralized strata will increase under predicted future low-flow scenarios (from 25% under Q45 flow to 66% under Q99 flow in this study). However, mineral speciation modelling indicates that changes in stream pH and hydraulic conditions at low flow will decrease aqueous metal transport and increase sediment metal concentrations by enhancing metal sorption directly to streambed sediments. Solute transport modelling further demonstrates how increases in the importance of metal-rich diffuse groundwater sources at low flow could minimize the benefits of point source metal contamination treatment. Understanding metal transport dynamics under exceptionally low flows, as well as under high flows, is crucial to evaluate ecosystem service provision and remediation effectiveness in watersheds under future climate change scenarios.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2012

The interactive effects of excess reactive nitrogen and climate change on aquatic ecosystems and water resources of the United States

Nearly all freshwaters and coastal zones of the US are degraded from inputs of excess reactive nitrogen (Nr), sources of which are runoff, atmospheric N deposition, and imported food and feed. Some major adverse effects include harmful algal blooms, hypoxia of fresh and coastal waters, ocean acidification, long-term harm to human health, and increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Nitrogen fluxes to coastal areas and emissions of nitrous oxide from waters have increased in response to N inputs. Denitrification and sedimentation of organic N to sediments are important processes that divert N from downstream transport. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly important denitrification hotspots. Carbon storage in sediments is enhanced by Nr, but whether carbon is permanently buried is unknown. The effect of climate change on N transport and processing in fresh and coastal waters will be felt most strongly through changes to the hydrologic cycle, whereas N loading is mostly climate-independent. Alterations in precipitation amount and dynamics will alter runoff, thereby influencing both rates of Nr inputs to aquatic ecosystems and groundwater and the water residence times that affect Nr removal within aquatic systems. Both infrastructure and climate change alter the landscape connectivity and hydrologic residence time that are essential to denitrification. While Nr inputs to and removal rates from aquatic systems are influenced by climate and management, reduction of N inputs from their source will be the most effective means to prevent or to minimize environmental and economic impacts of excess Nr to the nation’s water resources.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2025

Relating surface water dynamics in wetlands and lakes to spatial variability in hydrologic signatures

The retention of surface water in wetlands and lakes can modify the timing, duration, and magnitude of river discharge. However, efforts to characterize the influence of surface water on discharge regimes have been generally limited to small, wetland-dense watersheds. We developed random forest models to explain spatial variability in six hydrologic signatures, reflecting flashiness, high, and low flow conditions, at 72 gaged watersheds with variable water storage capacity across the conterminous United States. In addition to variables representing meteorology and landscape characteristics, we also tested the inclusion of surface water dynamics, derived from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2. Models for all six signatures improved with the addition of catchment characteristics, including surface water dynamics, relative to models with only climate variables. Percent improvement in model adjusted R 2 , mean square error, and Akaike information criterion ranged from 4.00 to 14.33%, 5.00 to 20.30%, and 2.75–8.14, respectively. Automated variable selection can be indicative of the relative importance of certain variables over others. Using a forward selection process, five of the six signature models selected remotely sensed inundation or wetland variables ( p < 0.05). For example, the variable semi-permanent and permanent (SP + P) floodplain inundation (i.e., lakes along rivers) was associated with lower annual flashiness. Further, SP + P non-floodplain waters and geographically isolated wetlands significantly contributed to explaining variability in the low flow signatures. Our findings underscore the capacity of wetlands to stabilize and maintain flows during dry periods. Improved understanding of how surface water dynamics influence hydrologic signatures can inform wetland restoration efforts and facilitate improved resilience to extreme flow conditions.

Wetland Ecology & Management↗

USGS2023

Blue carbon in a changing climate and a changing context

Blue carbon, a convenient term to encompass the climate mitigation value of coastal carbon dynamics, has received global policy attention and growing datasets to support management actions. Carbon stock assessments in mangroves, seagrass, and tidal marshes document significant carbon storage in soils. Models illustrate significant downward fluxes of carbon dioxide and limited methane emissions, making tidal wetland preservation and restoration notably potent for carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Natural variation in different carbon stocks and fluxes has led to prioritization efforts to characterize coastal lands across physical and biological gradients. However, a larger concern beyond upscaling carbon dynamics is the resilience of these stocks and fluxes with global changes. Data-informed models have greatly improved our assessments of the vulnerability of soil and biomass stocks, greenhouse gas (GHG) balance, and spatial extents. Accelerated sea-level rise is increasingly concerning, but its impacts vary by resilience context, as very few coastal lands are without direct human impact. As the landscape context has changed, blue carbon fluxes have also shifted in terms of importance and distribution. New incentives for tidal ecosystem management are expanding boundaries to include algal carbon and tidal transport of alkalinity, which bring additional co-benefits to coastal waters. Using examples from the conterminous USA on blue carbon stocks, radiative balance, and extent, this chapter explores timelines of physical and biogeochemical stressors and their application to past, current, and future climate mitigation functions of coastal ecosystems.

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century

(Bradford) Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperatures and aridity because they are tightly controlled by patterns of moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alone. In addition, precipitation projections vary substantially among climate models, enhancing variation in overall trajectories for aridity. Here, we constrain this uncertainty by utilizing an ecosystem water balance model to quantify drought conditions with recognized ecological importance, and by identifying changes in ecological drought conditions that are robust among climate models. Despite limited evidence for robust changes in precipitation, changes in ecological drought are robust over large portions of N. American drylands. Our results suggest strong regional differences in long-term drought trajectories, epitomized by chronic drought increases in southern areas and decreases in the north. However, we also found that exposure to hot-dry stress is both increasing faster than mean annual temperature and, surprisingly, most pronounced in northern areas. Robust shifts in seasonal patterns of soil moisture availability are identified in most regions, although the directions of change and implications for ecosystems vary geographically. These results provide useful insights about the likely impact of climate change on dryland ecosystems in N. America. More broadly, this approach of identifying robust changes in ecological drought may be useful for other assessment of climate change impacts in drylands and may provide a more rigorous foundation for making long-term strategic resource management decisions.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2026

A framework for integrating spatiotemporal deep learning methods with landsat for annual land cover and impervious surface mapping

Land cover information is essential for understanding Earth’s surface dynamics and how vegetation, water, soil, climate, and terrain interact. The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) has been the authoritative source for consistent U.S. land cover mapping. To extend NLCD’s temporal resolution and reduce production latency, we developed the Land Cover Artificial Mapping System (LCAMS)—a prototype spatiotemporal deep learning framework piloted as the foundation for the new Annual NLCD. LCAMS builds on concepts from legacy NLCD and the U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiatives. It employs a loosely coupled two-stage architecture consisting of independent but functionally interdependent spatial and temporal models. Spatial models extract per-year information from Landsat data, while the temporal models refine the spatial outputs to enforce inter-annual consistency—critical for reliable land change monitoring. LCAMS produces annual 30 m resolution land cover and impervious surface outputs, with region-specific fine-tuning to generalize across diverse landscapes and temporal dynamics. Validation was conducted using an independent dataset of 1925 randomly sampled plots from five U.S. Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD) tiles spanning 1985-2021, selected for spatial and temporal variability. This dataset was used consistently to evaluate LCAMS, Legacy NLCD, and LCMAP. Using the NLCD legend, LCAMS achieved 72.1 ± 1.60% overall agreement, compared to 71.1 ± 1.7% agreement for Legacy NLCD. Using the LCMAP legend, LCAMS achieved 83.4 ± 1.22% agreement, compared to 84.6 ± 1.11% agreement for LCMAP. Overall, LCAMS delivers comparable accuracy while offering higher thematic resolution, longer temporal coverage, and automated production of annual 30 m CONUS land cover.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2005

A synthesis of ecological and fish-community changes in Lake Ontario, 1970-2000

We assessed stressors associated with ecological and fishcommunity changes in Lake Ontario since 1970, when the first symposium on Salmonid Communities in Oligotrophic Lakes (SCOL I) was held (J. Fish. Res. Board Can. 29: 613-616). Phosphorus controls implemented in the early 1970s were undeniably successful; lower food-web studies showed declines in algal abundance and epilimnetic zooplankton production and a shift in pelagic primary productivity toward smaller organisms. Stressors on the fish community prior to 1970 such as exploitation, sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) predation, and effects of nuisance populations of alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) were largely ameliorated by the 1990s. The alewife became a pivotal species supporting a multi-million-dollar salmonid sport fishery, but alewife-induced thiamine deficiency continued to hamper restoration and sustainability of native lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ). Expanding salmonine populations dependent on alewife raised concerns about predator demand and prey supply, leading to reductions in salmonine stocking in the early 1990s. Relaxation of the predation impact by alewives and their shift to deeper water allowed recovery of native fishes such as threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and emerald shiner ( Notropis atherinoides ). The return of the Lake Ontario ecosystem to historical conditions has been impeded by unplanned introductions. Establishment of Dreissena spp. led to increased water clarity and increased vectoring of lower trophic-level production to benthic habitats and contributed to the collapse of Diporeia spp. populations, behavioral modifications of key fish species, and the decline of native lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis ). Despite reduced productivity, exotic-species introductions, and changes in the fish community, offshore Mysis relicta populations remained relatively stable. The effects of climate and climate change on the population abundance and dynamics of Lake Ontario fish were unknown at the time of SCOL I, but a temperature-time series begun in the late 1950s in the Kingston Basin has since provided evidence of climate warming and associated fish-community changes. We should expect ecological surprises in the coming decades that will challenge scientists and fishery managers especially as they face new exotic species, climate warming, and escalating stakeholder demands on the resource. Continuous long-term ecological studies were critical for interpreting changes in Lake Ontario's fish community over the past three decades and will be essential in the future for both scientific understanding and management of the fishery.

Technical Report↗

USGS1990

Fire - Southern Oscillation relations in the southwestern United States

Fire scar and tree growth chronologies (1700 to 1905) and fire statistics (since 1905) from Arizona and New Mexico show that small areas burn after wet springs associated with the low phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO), whereas large areas burn after dry springs associated with the high phase of the SO. Through its synergistic influence on spring weather and fuel conditions, climatic variability in the tropical Pacific significantly influences vegetation dynamics in the southwestern United States. Synchrony of fire-free and severe fire years across diverse southwestern forests implies that climate forces fire regimes on a subcontinental scale; it also underscores the importance of exogenous factors in ecosystem dynamics.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2007

Sediment geochemical records of productivity and oxygen depletion along the margin of western North America during the past 60,000 years: Teleconnections with Greenland Ice and the Cariaco Basin

Many sediment records from the margins of the Californias (Alta and Baja) collected in water depths between 60 and 1200 m contain anoxic intervals (laminated sediments) that can be correlated with interstadial intervals as defined by the oxygen-isotope composition of Greenland ice (Dansgaard–Oeschger, D–O, cycles). These intervals include all or parts of Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 (OIS3; 60–24 cal ka), the Bölling/Alleröd warm interval (B/A; 15–13 cal ka), and the Holocene. This study uses organic carbon (Corg) and trace-element proxies for anoxia and productivity, namely elevated concentrations and accumulation rates of molybdenum and cadmium, in these laminated sediments to suggest that productivity may be more important than ventilation in producing changes in bottom-water oxygen (BWO) conditions on open, highly productive continental margins. The main conclusion from these proxies is that during the last glacial interval (LGI; 24–15 cal ka) and the Younger Dryas cold interval (YD; 13–11.6 cal ka) productivity was lower and BWO levels were higher than during OIS3, the B/A, and the Holocene on all margins of the Californias. The Corg and trace-element profiles in the LGI–B/A–Holocene transition in the Cariaco Basin on the margin of northern Venezuela are remarkably similar to those in the transition on the northern California margin. Correlation between D–O cycles in Greenland ice with gray-scale measurements in varved sediments in the Cariaco Basin also is well established. Synchronous climate-driven changes as recorded in the sediments on the margins of the Californias, sediments from the Cariaco Basin, and in the GISP-2 Greenland ice core support the hypothesis that changes in atmospheric dynamics played a major role in abrupt climate change during the last 60 ka. Millennial-scale cycles in productivity and oxygen depletion on the margins of the Californias demonstrate that the California Current System was poised at a threshold whereby perturbations of atmospheric circulation produced rapid changes in circulation in the eastern North Pacific Ocean. It is likely that the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans were linked through the atmosphere. Warmer air temperatures during interstadials would have strengthened Hadley and Walker circulations, which, in turn, would have strengthened the subtropical high pressure systems in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, producing increased rainfall over the Cariaco Basin and increased upwelling along the margins of the Californias.

California↗

USGS2020

The impact of lime additions on mercury dynamics in stream chemistry and macroinvertebrates: A comparison of watershed and direct stream addition management strategies

Acid deposition has declined across eastern North America and northern Europe due to reduced emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides. Ecosystem recovery has been slow with limited improvement in surface water chemistry. Delayed recovery has encouraged acid-neutralization strategies to accelerate recovery of impaired biological communities. Lime application has been shown to increase pH and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which could also drive increased mobilization of mercury (Hg) to surface waters. A four-year study was conducted within Honnedaga Lake’s watershed in the Adirondack region of New York to compare the effects of watershed and direct channel lime additions on Hg in stream water and macroinvertebrates. All treatments sharply increased stream pH and DOC concentrations, but large differences in the duration of impacts were apparent. The watershed treatment resulted in multi-year increases in concentrations and loads of total Hg (150%; 390%), DOC (190%; 350%) and nutrients, whereas total Hg and DOC increased for short periods (72–96 h) after channel treatments. No response of Hg in macroinvertebrates was evident following the watershed treatment, but a potential short-term and spatially constrained increase occurred after the channel treatment. Our observations indicate that both treatment approaches mobilize Hg, but that direct channel liming mobilizes considerably less than watershed liming over any period longer than a few days. During the final study year, increased methyl Hg concentrations were observed across reference and treated streams, which may reflect an extended dry period, highlighting that climate variation may also affect Hg dynamics.

New York↗

USGS2012

Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus , the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients. Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during &sim;50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naïve estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to &sim;0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (&sim;0.04–0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future anticipated declines in M. lucifugus occurrence can be measured. The dynamic distribution modeling approach has broad applicability to regional bat monitoring efforts now underway in several countries and we suggest ways to improve and expand our grid-based monitoring program to gain robust insights into bat population status and trend across large portions of North America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2024

Impacts of convective storms on runoff, erosion, and carbon export in a continuous permafrost landscape

Permafrost holds more than twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere, but this large carbon reservoir is vulnerable to thaw and erosion under a rapidly changing Arctic climate. Convective storms are becoming increasingly common during Arctic summers and can amplify runoff and erosion. These extreme events, in concert with active layer deepening, may accelerate carbon loss from the Arctic landscape. However, we lack measurements of carbon fluxes during these events. Rivers are sensitive to physical, chemical, and hydrological perturbations, and thus are excellent systems for studying landscape responses to thunderstorms. We present observations from the Canning River, Alaska, which drains the northern Brooks Range and flows across a continuous permafrost landscape to the Beaufort Sea. During summer 2022 and 2023 field campaigns, we opportunistically monitored river discharge, sediment, and organic carbon fluxes during several thunderstorms. During one notable storm, river discharge nearly doubled from ~130 m3/s to ~240 m3/s, suspended sediment flux increased 70-fold, and the particulate organic carbon (POC) flux increased 90-fold relative to non-storm conditions. Taken together, the river exported ~16 metric tons of POC over one hour of this sustained event, not including the additional flux of woody debris. Furthermore, the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux nearly doubled. Although these thunderstorm-driven fluxes are short-lived (hours to days), they play an outsized role in exporting organic carbon from Arctic rivers. Understanding how these extreme events impact river water, sediment, and carbon dynamics will help predict how Arctic climate change will modify the global carbon cycle.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Local and cross-seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus

Quantifying how climate and land use factors drive population dynamics at regional scales is complex because it depends on the extent of spatial and temporal synchrony among local populations, and the integration of population processes throughout a species’ annual cycle. We modeled weekly, site-specific summer abundance (1994–2013) of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus at sites across Illinois, USA to assess relative associations of monarch abundance with climate and land use variables during the winter, spring, and summer stages of their annual cycle. We developed negative binomial regression models to estimate monarch abundance during recruitment in Illinois as a function of local climate, site-specific crop cover, and county-level herbicide (glyphosate) application. We also incorporated cross-seasonal covariates, including annual abundance of wintering monarchs in Mexico and climate conditions during spring migration and breeding in Texas, USA. We provide the first empirical evidence of a negative association between county-level glyphosate application and local abundance of adult monarchs, particularly in areas of concentrated agriculture. However, this association was only evident during the initial years of the adoption of herbicide-resistant crops (1994–2003). We also found that wetter and, to a lesser degree, cooler springs in Texas were associated with higher summer abundances in Illinois, as were relatively cool local summer temperatures in Illinois. Site-specific abundance of monarchs averaged approximately one fewer per site from 2004–2013 than during the previous decade, suggesting a recent decline in local abundance of monarch butterflies on their summer breeding grounds in Illinois. Our results demonstrate that seasonal climate and land use are associated with trends in adult monarch abundance, and our approach highlights the value of considering fine-resolution temporal fluctuations in population-level responses to environmental conditions when inferring the dynamics of migratory species.

Illinois↗