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USGS2019

Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) climate scenario planning pilot report

Scenario planning is a structured process that embraces uncertainty and explores plausible alternative future conditions under different assumptions to help manage risk and prioritize actions ( Schwartz 1996, Peterson et al . 2003). It has been used by a variety of organizations to explore and help prepare for the future, lends itself well to exploring the uncertainty surrounding changing environmental conditions, and is widely applicable to natural resource management issues. The conservation and management of protected resources for example, can be particularly challenging when the rate and magnitude of climate-related changes, and the response of species to those changes, are uncertain (NMFS 2016). The structured process of scenario planning can help resource managers navigate through potentially paralyzing uncertainties, manage risk, and evaluate/prioritize management actions associated with adapting to, and managing for, climate change (Moore et al . 2013). Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) is a species highly vulnerable to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic (Hare et al . 2016a). Based on this and the above reasons, a scenario planning initiative was piloted by NOAA Fisheries to explore what the agency can do to improve U.S.Atlantic salmon population resilience to changing climate conditions in riverine, estuarine(transition), and marine environments across its current range (U.S. headwaters to Greenland). Project objectives were: 1) to better understand the challenges of managing Atlantic salmon in a changing climate; 2) to identify and discuss potential management actions and research activities that can be undertaken to increase our understanding of the drivers of Atlantic salmon productivity and resilience; 3) to increase collaborations and coordination related to the speciesrecovery; and 4) to explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Outcomes from this initiative included, but were not limited to, the identification of high priority research and management actions to further collaborations and efforts to recover this species. The identified high priority actions were those that could be undertaken in the near-term(1-5 years) using current resources and in consideration of potential future conditions. Examples of identified actions by habitat (not in order of priority) included: 1) synthesize and refine range-wide life stage specific quantitative environmental thresholds for temperature, flow, etc.; 2) assess watershed habitat productivity; 3) assess forage fish and survival connection and options for marine migration monitoring; and 4) reduce dam-associated indirect estuarine mortality rate. In addition, a number of high priority climate-related actions were included in the revised Atlantic Salmon Recovery Plan (USFWS and NMFS 2019, Appendix 16) and at least two newly NOAA Fisheries funded projects are now underway (1. conduct range-wide habitat analysis and synthesize life stage specific quantitative thresholds and 2. identify locations of cold water refugia under a changing climate). This is the first use of the scenario planning process (NPS 2013) by NOAA Fisheries. This report documents an important example of applying scenario planning to marine species/environments and may serve as a useful reference for other case studies.

Atlantic Ocean↗

USGS2012

Monitoring gradual ecosystem change using Landsat time series analyses: case studies in selected forest and rangeland ecosystems

The focus of the study was to assess gradual changes occurring throughout a range of natural ecosystems using decadal Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM +) time series data. Time series data stacks were generated for four study areas: (1) a four scene area dominated by forest and rangeland ecosystems in the southwestern United States, (2) a sagebrush-dominated rangeland in Wyoming, (3) woodland adjacent to prairie in northwestern Nebraska, and (4) a forested area in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Through analyses of time series data, we found evidence of gradual systematic change in many of the natural vegetation communities in all four areas. Many of the conifer forests in the southwestern US are showing declines related to insects and drought, but very few are showing evidence of improving conditions or increased greenness. Sagebrush communities are showing decreases in greenness related to fire, mining, and probably drought, but very few of these communities are showing evidence of increased greenness or improving conditions. In Nebraska, forest communities are showing local expansion and increased canopy densification in the prairie–woodland interface, and in the White Mountains high elevation understory conifers are showing range increases towards lower elevations. The trends detected are not obvious through casual inspection of the Landsat images. Analyses of time series data using many scenes and covering multiple years are required in order to develop better impressions and representations of the changing ecosystem patterns and trends that are occurring. The approach described in this paper demonstrates that Landsat time series data can be used operationally for assessing gradual ecosystem change across large areas. Local knowledge and available ancillary data are required in order to fully understand the nature of these trends.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2019

Current state of knowledge on biological effects from contaminants on arctic wildlife and fish

Since the last Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) effort to review biological effects of the exposure to organohalogen compounds (OHCs) in Arctic biota, there has been a considerable number of new Arctic effect studies. Here, we provide an update on the state of the knowledge of OHC, and also include mercury, exposure and/or associated effects in key Arctic marine and terrestrial mammal and bird species as well as in fish by reviewing the literature published since the last AMAP assessment in 2010. We aimed at updating the knowledge of how single but also combined health effects are or can be associated to the exposure to single compounds or mixtures of OHCs. We also focussed on assessing both potential individual as well as population health impacts using population-specific exposure data post 2000. We have identified quantifiable effects on vitamin metabolism, immune functioning, thyroid and steroid hormone balances, oxidative stress, tissue pathology, and reproduction. As with the previous assessment, a wealth of documentation is available for biological effects in marine mammals and seabirds, and sentinel species such as the sledge dog and Arctic fox, but information for terrestrial vertebrates and fish remain scarce. While hormones and vitamins are thoroughly studied, oxidative stress, immunotoxic and reproductive effects need further investigation. Depending on the species and population, some OHCs and mercury tissue contaminant burdens post 2000 were observed to be high enough to exceed putative risk threshold levels that have been previously estimated for non-target species or populations outside the Arctic. In this assessment, we made use of risk quotient calculations to summarize the cumulative effects of different OHC classes and mercury for which critical body burdens can be estimated for wildlife across the Arctic. As our ultimate goal is to better predict or estimate the effects of OHCs and mercury in Arctic wildlife at the individual, population and ecosystem level, there remain numerous knowledge gaps on the biological effects of exposure in Arctic biota. These knowledge gaps include the establishment of concentration thresholds for individual compounds as well as for realistic cocktail mixtures that in fact indicate biologically relevant, and not statistically determined, health effects for specific species and subpopulations. Finally, we provide future perspectives on understanding Arctic wildlife health using new in vivo, in vitro, and in silico techniques, and provide case studies on multiple stressors to show that future assessments would benefit from significant efforts to integrate human health, wildlife ecology and retrospective and forecasting aspects into assessing the biological effects of OHC and mercury exposure in Arctic wildlife and fish.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2022

Water availability drives instream conditions and life-history of an imperiled desert fish: A case study to inform water management

In arid ecosystems, available water is a critical, yet limited resource for human consumption, agricultural use, and ecosystem processes—highlighting the importance of developing management strategies to meet the needs of multiple users. Here, we evaluated how water availability influences stream thermal regimes and life-history expressions of Lahontan cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi ) in the arid Truckee River basin in the western United States. We integrated air temperature and stream discharge data to quantify how water availability drives stream temperature during annual spawning and rearing of Lahontan cutthroat trout. We then determined how in situ stream discharge and temperature affected adult spawning migrations, juvenile growth opportunities, and duration of suitable thermal conditions. Air temperatures had significant, large effects (+) on stream temperature across months; the effects of discharge varied across months, with significant effects (−) during May through August, suggesting increased discharge can help mitigate temperatures during seasonally warm months. Two models explained adult Lahontan cutthroat trout migration, and both models indicated that adult Lahontan cutthroat trout avoid migration when temperatures are warmer (~ > 12 °C) and discharge is higher (~ > 50 m 3 *s −1 ). Juvenile size was best explained by a quadratic relationship with cumulative degree days (CDD; days>4 °C) as size increased with increasing CDDs but decreased at higher CDDs. We also found an interaction between CDDs and discharge explaining juvenile size: when CDDs were low, higher discharge was associated with larger size, but when CDDs were high, higher discharge was associated with smaller size. Stream temperatures also determined the duration of juvenile rearing, as all juvenile emigration ceased at temperatures >24.4 °C. Together, our results illustrated how stream discharge and temperature shape the life-history of Lahontan cutthroat trout at multiple stages and can inform management actions to offset warming temperatures and facilitate life-history diversity and population resilience.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2001

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2010

Differentiating aquatic plant communities in a eutrophic river using hyperspectral and multispectral remote sensing

This study evaluates the efficacy of remote sensing technology to monitor species composition, areal extent and density of aquatic plants (macrophytes and filamentous algae) in impoundments where their presence may violate water-quality standards. Multispectral satellite (IKONOS) images and more than 500 in situ hyperspectral samples were acquired to map aquatic plant distributions. By analyzing field measurements, we created a library of hyperspectral signatures for a variety of aquatic plant species, associations and densities. We also used three vegetation indices. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), near-infrared (NIR)-Green Angle Index (NGAI) and normalized water absorption depth (DH), at wavelengths 554, 680, 820 and 977 nm to differentiate among aquatic plant species composition, areal density and thickness in cases where hyperspectral analysis yielded potentially ambiguous interpretations. We compared the NDVI derived from IKONOS imagery with the in situ, hyperspectral-derived NDVI. The IKONOS-based images were also compared to data obtained through routine visual observations. Our results confirmed that aquatic species composition alters spectral signatures and affects the accuracy of remote sensing of aquatic plant density. The results also demonstrated that the NGAI has apparent advantages in estimating density over the NDVI and the DH. In the feature space of the three indices, 3D scatter plot analysis revealed that hyperspectral data can differentiate several aquatic plant associations. High-resolution multispectral imagery provided useful information to distinguish among biophysical aquatic plant characteristics. Classification analysis indicated that using satellite imagery to assess Lemna coverage yielded an overall agreement of 79% with visual observations and >90% agreement for the densest aquatic plant coverages. Interpretation of biophysical parameters derived from high-resolution satellite or airborne imagery should prove to be a valuable approach for assessing the effectiveness of management practices for controlling aquatic plant growth in inland waters, as well as for routine monitoring of aquatic plants in lakes and suitable lentic environments. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2015

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Colorado, Minnesota↗

USGS2011

Modeling of hydroecological feedbacks predicts distinct classes of landscape pattern, process, and restoration potential in shallow aquatic ecosystems

It is widely recognized that interactions between vegetation and flow cause the emergence of channel patterns that are distinct from the standard Schumm classification of river channels. Although landscape pattern is known to be linked to ecosystem services such as habitat provision, pollutant removal, and sustaining biodiversity, the mechanisms responsible for the development and stability of different landscape patterns in shallow, vegetated flows have remained poorly understood. Fortunately, recent advances have made possible large-scale models of flow through vegetated environments that can be run over a range of environmental variables and over timescales of millennia. We describe a new, quasi-3D cellular automata model that couples simulations of shallow-water flow, bed shear stresses, sediment transport, and vegetation dynamics in an efficient manner. That efficiency allowed us to apply the model widely in order to determine how different hydroecological feedbacks control landscape pattern and process in various types of wetlands and floodplains. Distinct classes of landscape pattern were uniquely associated with specific types of allogenic and autogenic drivers in wetland flows. Regular, anisotropically patterned wetlands were dominated by allogenic processes (i.e., processes driven by periodic high water levels and flow velocities that redistribute sediment), relative to autogenic processes (e.g., vegetation production, peat accretion, and gravitational erosion). These anistropically patterned wetlands are therefore particularly prone to hydrologic disturbance. Other classes of wetlands that emerged from simulated interactions included maze-patterned, amorphous, and topographically noisy marshes, open marsh with islands, banded string-pool sequences perpendicular to flow, parallel deep and narrow channels flanked by marsh, and ridge-and-slough patterned marsh oriented parallel to flow. Because vegetation both affects and responds to the balance between the transport capacity of the flow and sediment supply, these vegetated systems exhibit a feedback that is not dominant in most rivers. Consequently, unlike in most rivers, it is not possible to predict the “channel pattern” of a vegetated landscape based only on discharge characteristics and sediment supply; the antecedent vegetation pattern and vegetation dynamics must also be known. In general, the stability of different wetland pattern types is most strongly related to factors controlling the erosion and deposition of sediment at vegetation patch edges, the magnitude of sediment redistribution by flow, patch elevation relative to water level, and the variability of erosion rates in vegetation patches with low flow-resistance. As we exemplify in our case-study of the Everglades ridge and slough landscape, feedback between flow and vegetation also causes hysteresis in landscape evolution trajectories that will affect the potential for landscape restoration. Namely, even if the hydrologic conditions that historically produced higher flows are restored, degraded portions of the ridge and slough landscape are unlikely to revert to their former patterning. As wetlands and floodplains worldwide become increasingly threatened by climate change and urbanization, the greater mechanistic understanding of landscape pattern and process that our analysis provides will improve our ability to forecast and manage the behavior of these ecosystems.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Effects of aquifer storage and recovery activities on water quality in the Little Arkansas River and Equus Beds Aquifer, south-central Kansas, 2011–14

The Equus Beds aquifer in south-central Kansas is aprimary water source for the city of Wichita. The Equus Beds aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) project was developed to help the city of Wichita meet increasing current (2016) and future water demands. The Equus Beds ASR project pumps water out of the Little Arkansas River during above-base flow conditions, treats it using drinking-water quality standards as a guideline, and recharges it into the Equus Beds aquifer for later use. Phase II of the Equus Beds ASR project currently (2016) includes a river intake facility and a surface-water treatment facility with a 30 million gallon per day capacity. Water diverted from the Little Arkansas River is delivered to an adjacent presedimentation basin for solids removal. Subsequently, waste from the surface-water treatment facility and the presedimentation basin is returned to the Little Arkansas River through a residuals return line. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, developed and implemented a hydrobiological monitoring program as part of the ASR project to characterize and quantify the effects of aquifer storage and recovery activities on the Little Arkansas River and Equus Beds aquifer water quality. Data were collected from 2 surface-water sites (one upstream and one downstream from the residuals return line), 1 residuals return line site, and 2 groundwater well sites (each having a shallow and deep part): the Little Arkansas River upstream from the ASR facility near Sedgwick, Kansas (upstream surface-water site 375350097262800), about 0.03 mile (mi) upstream from the residuals return line site; the Little Arkansas River near Sedgwick, Kans. (downstream surface-water site 07144100), about 1.68 mi downstream from the residuals return line site; discharge from the Little Arkansas River ASR facility near Sedgwick, Kansas (residuals return line site 375348097262800); 25S 01 W 07BCCC01 SMW–S11 near CW36 (MW–7 shallow groundwater well site 375327097285401); 25S01 W 07BCCC02 DMW–S10 near CW36 (MW–7 deep groundwater well site 375327097285402); 25S 01W 07BCCA01 SMW–S13 near CW36 (MW–8 shallow groundwater well site 375332097284801); and 25S 01W 07BCCA02 DMW–S14 near CW36 (MW–8 deep groundwater well site 375332097284802). The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, assessed the effects of the ASR Phase II facility residuals return line discharges on stream quality of the Little Arkansas River by measuring continuous physicochemical properties and collecting discrete water-quality and sediment samples for about 2 years pre- (January 2011 through April 2013) and post-ASR (May 2013 through December 2014) Phase II facility operation upstream and downstream from the ASR Phase II facility. Additionally, habitat variables were quantified and macroinvertebrate and fish communities were sampled upstream and downstream from the ASR Phase II facility during the study period. To assess the effects of aquifer recharge on Equus Beds groundwater quality, continuous physicochemical properties were measured and discrete water-quality samples were collected before and during the onset of Phase II aquifer recharge in two (shallow and deep) groundwater wells. Little Arkansas River streamflow was about 10 times larger after the facility began operating because of greater rainfall. Residuals return line release volumes were a very minimal proportion (0.06 percent) of downstream streamflow volume during the months the ASR facility was operating. Upstream and downstream continuously measured water temperature and dissolved oxygen median differences were smaller post-ASR than pre-ASR. Turbidity generally was smaller at the downstream site throughout the study period and decreased at both sites after the ASR Phase II facility began discharging despite a median residuals return line turbidity that was about an order of magnitude larger than the median turbidity at the downstream site. Upstream and downstream continuously measured turbidity median differences were larger post-ASR than pre-ASR. Median post-ASR continuously measured nitrite plus nitrate and continuously computed total suspended solids and suspended-sediment concentrations were smaller than pre-ASR likely because of higher streamflows and dilution; whereas, median continuously computed dissolved and total organic carbon concentrations were larger likely because of higher streamflows and runoff conditions. None of the discretely measured water-quality constituents (dissolved and suspended solids, primary ions, suspended sediment, nutrients, carbon, trace elements, viral and bacterial indicators, and pesticides) in surface water were significantly different between the upstream and downstream sites after the ASR Phase II facility began discharging; however, pre-ASR calcium, sodium, hardness, manganese, and arsenate concentrations were significantly larger at the upstream site, which indicates that some water-quality conditions at the upstream and downstream sites were more similar post-ASR. Most of the primary constituents that make up dissolved solids decreased at both sites after the ASR Phase II facility began operation. Discretely collected total suspended solids concentrations were similar between the upstream and downstream sites before the facility began operating but were about 27 percent smaller at the downstream site after the facility began operating, despite the total suspended solids concentrations in the residuals return line being 15 times larger than the downstream site. Overall habitat scores were indicative of suboptimal conditions upstream and downstream from the ASR Phase II facility throughout the study period. Substrate fouling and sediment deposition mean scores indicated marginal conditions at the upstream and downstream sites during the study period, demonstrating that sediment deposition was evident pre- and post-ASR and no substantial changes in these habitat characteristics were noted after the ASR Phase II facility began discharging. Macroinvertebrate community composition (evaluated using functional feeding, behavioral, and tolerance metrics) generally was similar between sites during the study period. Fewer macroinvertebrate metrics were significant between the upstream and downstream sites post-ASR (6) than pre-ASR (14), which suggests that macroinvertebate communities were more similar after the ASR facility began discharging. Upstream-downstream comparisons in macroinvertebrate aquatic-life-support metrics had no significant differences for the post-ASR time period and neither site was fully supporting for any of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment aquatic-life-support metrics (Macroinvertebrate Biotic Index; Kansas Biotic Index with tolerances for nutrients and oxygen-demanding substances; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EPT] richness; and percentage of EPT species). Overall, using macroinvertebrate aquatic life-support criteria from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, upstream and downstream sites were classified as partially supporting before and after the onset of ASR facility operations. Fish community trophic status and tolerance groups generally were similar among sites during the study period. Fish community Little Arkansas River Basin Index of Biotic Integrity scores at the upstream and downstream sites were indicative of fair-to-good conditions before the facility began operating and decreased to fair conditions after the facility began operating. Groundwater physicochemical changes concurrent with the beginning of recharge operations at the Sedgwick basin were more pronounced in shallow groundwater. No constituent concentrations in the pre-recharge period in comparison to the post-recharge period increased to concentrations exceeding drinking water regulations; however, nitrate decreased significantly from a pre-recharge exceedance of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level to a post recharge nonexceedance. Shallow groundwater chemical concentrations or rates of detection increased after artificial recharge began for the ions potassium, chloride, and fluoride; phosphorus and organic carbon species; trace elements barium, manganese, nickel, arsenate, arsenic, and boron; agricultural pesticides atrazine, metolachlor, metribuzin, and simazine; organic disinfection byproducts bromodichloromethane and trichloromethane; and gross beta levels. Additionally, water temperature, and pH were larger after recharge began; and total solids and slime-forming bacteria concentrations and densities were smaller. Total solids, nitrate, and selenium significantly decreased; and potassium, chloride, nickel, arsenic, fluoride, phosphorus and carbon species, and gross beta levels significantly increased in shallow groundwater after artificial recharge. Results of biological activity reaction tests indicated that water quality microbiology was different before and after artificial recharge began; at times, these differences may lead to changes in dominant bacterial populations that, in turn, may lead to formation and expansion in populations that may cause bioplugging and other unwanted effects. Calcite, iron (II) hydroxide, hydroxyapatite, and similar minerals, had shifts in saturation indices that generally were from undersaturation toward equilibrium and, in some cases, toward oversaturation. These shifts toward neutral saturation indices might suggest reduced weathering of the minerals present in the Equus Beds aquifer. Chemical weathering in the shallow parts of the aquifer may be accelerated because of the increased water temperatures and the system is more vulnerable to clogged pores and mineral dissolution as the equilibrium state is affected by recharge and withdrawal. When oversaturation is indicated for iron minerals, plugging of aquifer materials may happen.

Kansas↗

USGS2011

National Assessment of Shoreline Change; historical shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts

Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of this study, the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts is the fifth in a series of reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast Atlantic, and, for California, the sandy shoreline and the coastal cliffs. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Because of the geomorphology of the New England and Mid-Atlantic (rocky coastlines, large embayments and beaches) as well as data gaps in some areas, this report presents beach erosion rates for 78 percent of the 1,360 kilometers of the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The New England and Mid-Atlantic shores were subdivided into a total of 10 analysis regions for the purpose of reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts was -0.5 meters per year with an uncertainty in the long-term trend of plus or minus 0.09 meters per year. The rate is based on shoreline change rates averaged from 21,184 individual transects, of which 68 percent were eroding. In both the long and short term, the average rates of shoreline change for New England and the Mid-Atlantic were erosional. Long-term erosion rates were generally lower in New England than in the Mid-Atlantic. This is a function of the dominant coastal geomorphology; New England has a greater percentage of shore types that tend to erode more slowly (rocky coasts, pocket beaches, and mainland beaches), whereas the Mid-Atlantic is dominated by more vulnerable barrier islands and dynamic spit/inlet environments. However, the percentage of coastline eroding was higher in New England than in the Mid-Atlantic, highlighting that although rates of shoreline erosion may not be extreme, coastal erosion is still widespread along this region of the U.S. coastline. The average rate of short-term shoreline change for the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts was also erosional but the rate of erosion decreased in comparison to long-term rates. The net short-term rate as averaged along 17,045 transects was -0.3 meters per year. Uncertainties for these rates range from 0.06 to 0.1 meters per year depending on the data sources used in the rate calculations. Of transects used to measure short-term change, 60 percent were erosional, as compared to 65 percent of coast eroding in the long term. The slight decrease (5 percent) in the amount of coastline eroding may be related to an increase in the frequency and extent of nourishment programs and (or) the effects of hardened structures during the more recent time period. The most stable (lower rates of erosion) beaches were more commonly found in New England. Despite an overall lowering of the average rates of erosion from long-term to short-term, the amount

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Nutrient attenuation in rivers and streams, Puget Sound Basin, Washington

Nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus are important for aquatic ecosystem health. Excessive amounts of nutrients, however, can make aquatic ecosystems harmful for biota because enhanced growth and decay cycles of aquatic algae can reduce dissolved oxygen in the water. In Puget Sound marine waters, low dissolved oxygen concentrations are observed in a number of marine nearshore areas, and nutrients have been identified as a major stressor to the local ecosystem. Delivery of nutrients from major rivers in the Puget Sound Basin to the marine environment can be large. Therefore, it is important to identify factors related to how nutrients are retained (attenuated) within streams and rivers in the Puget Sound Basin. Physical, chemical, and biological factors related to nutrient attenuation were identified through a review of related scientific literature. Numerous empirical modeling approaches for estimating nutrient attenuation in streams and rivers also were compiled, and a subset of these models was applied to the Puget Sound Basin. In particular, models based on the physical characteristics of a river reach (RivR-N model) and on the physical and biological features of a river reach (v f model) were used and compared for the 17 major rivers draining to the Puget Sound. Data on the relative amount of instream attenuation (the fraction of nutrient input removed per kilometer of stream reach) showed some common and general themes. Firstly, headwater reaches throughout the Puget Sound Basin tend to be better than the main stems of the major rivers at attenuating nitrate and orthophosphorus (ortho-P). Secondly, rivers are more efficient at attenuating nitrate than ortho-P, probably because of the close relation between phosphorus and suspended sediment, which was not captured fully in the models. Thirdly, when comparing the RivR-N and v f models for nitrate, physical characteristics of the channel may be more effective predictors of relative nitrate attenuation for main stem reaches, whereas biological factors may be more effective predictors in headwater reaches. These results are explained in terms of four primary factors of attenuation: sinuosity, channel slope, specific discharge, and uptake velocity (v f ) of the reach. A simple scoring procedure based on these four factors showed that reaches where attenuation scores were high had higher relative attenuation of nutrients from the RivR-N and v f models. This attenuation "scorecard" can be used to quickly assess the potential for a given reach to attenuate nutrients. Seasonal relative attenuation at three case studies was greater in summer months (July through September) and much lower and almost constant from January through June. An analysis of relative attenuation across a range of nutrient concentrations showed that, at some point, relative instream attenuation is minimized. For nitrate, relative attenuation reached a minimum value greater than 3 milligrams of nitrogen per liter (mg N/L) during low flow and 1 mg N/L during high flow. For orthophosphate, minimum relative attenuation was observed at about 0.1 milligram of phosphorus per liter (mg P/L) for both low- and high-flow conditions. Generally, the temporal dynamics of nutrient attenuation are dependent on the travel time through a given reach, the proportion of flow in contact with the sediment, and the amount of biological activity. Improved understanding of nutrient attenuation in Puget Sound Basin will benefit from the compilation of more detailed data for specific discharge, channel slope, and channel sinuosity in Puget Sound streams and rivers. Additionally, field studies examining upstream-downstream changes in nutrient load and field-based measurements of v f are needed. From a management perspective, preservation and improvement of instream nutrient attenuation should focus on increasing the travel time through a reach and contact time of water sediment (reactive) surfaces and lowering nutrient concentrations (and loads) to avoid saturation of instream attenuation and increase attenuation efficiency. These goals can be reached by maintaining and restoring channel-flood plain connectivity, maintaining and restoring healthy riparian zones along streams, managing point and nonpoint nutrient loads to streams and rivers, and restoring channel features that promote attenuation such as the addition of woody debris and maintaining pool-riffle morphologies. Many of these management approaches are already being undertaken during projects aimed to restore quality salmon habitat. Therefore, there is a dual benefit to these projects that also may lead to enhanced potential for nitrogen and phosphorus attenuation.

Washington↗

USGS2008

Environmental presence and persistence of pharmaceuticals: An overview

Emerging contaminants (ECs) in the environment – that is, chemicals with domestic, municipal, industrial, or agricultural sources that are not commonly monitored but may have the potential for adverse environmental effects – is a rapidly growing field of research. The use of “emerging” is not intended to infer that the presence of these compounds in the environment is new. These chemicals have been released into the environment as long as they have been in production or, in the case of hormones and other endogenous compounds, since the rise of animal life. What is emerging is the interest by the scientific and lay communities in the presence of these chemicals in the environment, the analytical capabilities required for detection, and the subtle effects that very small concentrations of these chemicals appear to have on aquatic biota. In December 2006, Environmental Science & Technology devoted an entire special issue (volume 40, number 23) to the topic of ECs, illustrating the increased interest in the subject. Within the EGs, one particular class that has seen a substantial increase in research over the past 10 years is pharmaceuticals and personal-care products (PPCPs). This increased research interest can be demonstrated by several means, including requests for proposals from funding agencies, but the clearest indication of a focused effort to understand the introduction, transformation, and potential health and environmental effects of PPCPs and ECs, in general, is the number of published reports. This increase can be shown by examining six environmental journals that regularly publish PPCP-related papers – Chemosphere , Environmental Science & Technology , Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry , Science of the Total Environment , Water Research , and Water Science and Technology . In 1998 there were 22 papers published on pharmaceuticals, antibiotics, or drugs in these 6 journals; by 2006, this number increased sixfold to 132 papers (Figure 1.1). This growth can be attributed to a number of factors. The presence of pharmaceuticals in surface-water samples from Europe and the United States was documented in several sentinel papers. These ground-breaking works encouraged other scientists to examine the rivers, streams, lakes, and reservoirs in their regions for such chemicals. In addition, the intense public attention paid to news reports on the environmental detections of these chemicals and possible effects of aquatic life has made this issue visible to the wastewater-treatment, drinking-water treatment, and regulatory communities. This has driven the funding bodies associated with these communities to fund studies or request proposals that address the presence, fate, and effects of PPCPs in aquatic systems. The release of the first comprehensive reconnaissance of pharmaceuticals and other wastewater contaminants in the United States provides an example of the intense media interest in this topic. Within 6 days on online publication of this study, 72 newspapers across the United States had published articles describing the results, either locally written or based on international media syndicate reports. There also was substantial concurrent coverage by local and national radio and television outlets, including the Cable News Network, ABC World News Tonight , and National Public Radio. A substantial fraction of these news stories may be attributable to press releases and media briefings prior to publication. However, the interest by television and print journalists in reporting the results of a peer-reviewed journal article to the general public was motivated by the recognition that describing the presence of PPCPs in water supplies would be of interest to the public. To better convey the results of the study published by Koplin et al. to the public, a separate general-interest fact sheet was published to summarize the important points of the study. Because PPCPs are commonly and widely used by individuals, there is likely a preexisting, personal identification with these compounds that does not occur for the wide range of other organic and inorganic contaminants whose presence in the environment has previously been described. This greater public “name recognition” makes itself known through the media to the regulatory and technical community and has prompted interest in sponsoring research that defines the composition and concentrations of PPCPs in potential sources and their fate and effects following relase into the environment. Independent of the drivers that potentially fuel the interest in studies of PPCPs, it is clear that PPCP research has grown beyond surface-water studies to examine issues such as: • Presence in other matrices, such as groundwater, landfill leachates, sediments, and biosolids. • Environmental transport and fate in surface water, groundwater, and soils amended with reclaimed water or biosolids. • PPCP source elucidation, such as wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents, confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs), and aquaculture. • Removal during wastewater and drinking-water treatment. • Effects on aquatic ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, and human health. The chapters in this book provide an extensive examination of current environmental pharmaceutical research and are divided into three sections: “Occurrence and Analysis of Pharmaceuticals in the Environment,” “Environment Fate and Transformations of Veterinary Pharmaceuticals,” and “treatment of Pharmaceuticals in Drinking Water and Wastewater.” The purpose of this introductory overview chapter is to outline current (2004-2006) knowledge about the presence and concentration of PPCPs as described in the published literature. Previous reviews should be consulted for discussions on pre-2004 publications. Those reviews will provide the reader with a comprehensive introduction to the topic of PPCPs in the environment. This chapter describes the sources of PPCPs and other organic contaminants often associated with human wastewater into the environment, the range of concentrations present in various environmental compartments, and the potential routes of removal/sequestration. An overview of the sources and fate of veterinary pharmaceuticals will be discussed in Chapter 5, “Fate and Transport of Veterinary Medicines in the Soil Environment.”

Book chapter↗

USGS1971

Techniques for assessing water resource potentials in the developing countries: with emphasis on streamflow, erosion and sediment transport, water movement in unsaturated soils, ground water, and remote sensing in hydrologic applications

Hydrologic instrumentation and methodology for assessing water-resource potentials have originated largely in the developed countries of the temperature zone. The developing countries lie largely in the tropic zone, which contains the full gamut of the earth's climatic environments, including most of those of the temperate zone. For this reason, most hydrologic techniques have world-wide applicability. Techniques for assessing water-resource potentials for the high priority goals of economic growth are well established in the developing countries--but much more are well established in the developing countries--but much more so in some than in other. Conventional techniques for measurement and evaluation of basic hydrologic parameters are now well-understood in the developing countries and are generally adequate for their current needs and those of the immediate future. Institutional and economic constraints, however, inhibit growth of sustained programs of hydrologic data collection and application of the data to problems in engineering technology. Computer-based technology, including processing of hydrologic data and mathematical modelling of hydrologic parameters i also well-begun in many developing countries and has much wider potential application. In some developing counties, however, there is a tendency to look on the computer as a panacea for deficiencies in basic hydrologic data collection programs. This fallacy must be discouraged, as the computer is a tool and not a "magic box." There is no real substitute for sound programs of basic data collection. Nuclear and isotopic techniques are being used increasingly in the developed countries in the measurement and evaluation of virtually all hydrologic parameter in which conventional techniques have been used traditionally. Even in the developed countries, however, many hydrologists are not using nuclear techniques, simply because they lack knowledge of the principles involved and of the potential benefits. Nuclear methodology in hydrologic applications is generally more complex than the conventional and hence requires a high level of technical expertise for effective use. Application of nuclear techniques to hydrologic problems in the developing countries is likely to be marginal for some years to come, owing to the higher costs involved and expertise required. Nuclear techniques, however, would seem to have particular promise in studies of water movement in unsaturated soils and of erosion and sedimentation where conventional techniques are inadequate, inefficient and in some cases costly. Remote sensing offers great promise for synoptic evaluations of water resources and hydrologic processes, including the transient phenomena of the hydrologic cycle. Remote sensing is not, however, a panacea for deficiencies in hydrologic data programs in the developing countries. Rather it is a means for extending and augmenting on-the-ground observations ans surveys (ground truth) to evaluated water resources and hydrologic processes on a regionall or even continental scale. With respect to economic growth goals in developing countries, there are few identifiable gaps in existing hydrologic instrumentation and methodology insofar as appraisal, development and management of available water resources are concerned. What is needed is acceleration of institutional development and professional motivation toward more effective use of existing and proven methodology. Moreover, much sophisticated methodology can be applied effectively in the developing countries only when adequate levels of indigenous scientific skills have been reached and supportive institutional frameworks are evolved to viability.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

Remote sensing has proven a useful way of evaluating long-term trends in vegetation “greenness” through the use of vegetation indices like Normalized Differences Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). In particular, analyses of greenness trends have been performed for large areas (continents, for example) in an attempt to understand vegetation response to climate. These studies have been most often used coarse resolution sensors like Moderate Resolution Image Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). However, trends in greenness are also important at more local scales, particularly in and around cities as vegetation offers a variety of valuable ecosystem services ranging from minimizing air pollution to mitigating urban heat island effects. To explore the ability to monitor greenness trends in and around cities, this paper presents a new way for analyzing greenness trends based on all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images and applies it to Guangzhou, China. This method is capable of including the effects of land cover change in the evaluation of greenness trends by separating the effects of abrupt and gradual changes, and providing information on the timing of greenness trends. An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.

Guangzhou↗

USGS2007

National volcanic ash operations plan for aviation

The National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan (1997) and the National Aviation Weather Initiatives (1999) both identified volcanic ash as a high-priority informational need to aviation services. The risk to aviation from airborne volcanic ash is known and includes degraded engine performance (including flameout), loss of visibility, failure of critical navigational and operational instruments, and, in the worse case, loss of life. The immediate costs for aircraft encountering a dense plume are potentially major—damages up to $80 million have occurred to a single aircraft. Aircraft encountering less dense volcanic ash clouds can incur longer-term costs due to increased maintenance of engines and external surfaces. The overall goal, as stated in the Initiatives, is to eliminate encounters with ash that could degrade the in-flight safety of aircrews and passengers and cause damage to the aircraft. This goal can be accomplished by improving the ability to detect, track, and forecast hazardous ash clouds and to provide adequate warnings to the aviation community on the present and future location of the cloud. To reach this goal, the National Aviation Weather Program established three objectives: (1) prevention of accidental encounters with hazardous clouds; (2) reduction of air traffic delays, diversions, or evasive actions when hazardous clouds are present; and (3) the development of a single, worldwide standard for exchange of information on airborne hazardous materials. To that end, over the last several years, based on numerous documents (including an OFCMsponsored comprehensive study on aviation training and an update of Aviation Weather Programs/Projects), user forums, and two International Conferences on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety (1992 and 2004), the Working Group for Volcanic Ash (WG/VA), under the OFCM-sponsored Committee for Aviation Services and Research, developed the National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation and Support of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) International Airways Volcano Watch. This plan defines agency responsibilities, provides a comprehensive description of an interagency standard for volcanic ash products and their formats, describes the agency backup procedures for operational products, and outlines the actions to be taken by each agency following an occurrence of a volcanic eruption that subsequently affects and impacts aviation services. Since our most recent International Conference on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety, volcanic ash-related product and service activities have grown considerably along with partnerships and alliances throughout the aviation community. In January 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environment Prediction began running the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model in place of the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion (VAFTAD) model, upgrading support to the volcanic ash advisory community. Today, improvements to the HYSPLIT model are ongoing based on recommendations by the OFCM-sponsored Joint Action Group for the Selection and Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Models and the Joint Action Group for Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Modeling (Research and Development Plan). Two international workshops on volcanic ash have already taken place, noticeable improvements and innovations in education, training, and outreach have been made, and federal and public education and training programs on volcanic ash-related products, services, and procedures iv continue to evolve. For example, in partnership with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and other academic institutions, volcanic ash hazard and mitigation training has been incorporated into aviation meteorology courses. As an essential next step, our volcanic ash-related efforts in the near term will be centered on the development of an interagency implementation plan to document and address the most critical needs of the volcanic ash advisory community. This interagency plan, developed as the result of the cooperative efforts of six federal agencies, follows the guidelines in support of the ICAO International Airways Volcano Watch. The signatories on the next page are committed to volcanic ash operations for aviation and will work toward full implementation through agency programs, initiatives, and procedures. I extend my sincere thanks to all members of the WG/VA, subject-matter experts, and to my staff for their collaborative and cooperative efforts in developing this first-ever national volcanic ash operations plan.

Report↗

USGS2007

Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic Site-Conditions (VS30) and Amplification Around the Globe

Executive Summary It is well-known that large global earthquakes can have a dramatic effect on local communities and the built environment. Moreover, ground motions amplified by surficial materials can exacerbate the situation, often making the difference between minor and major damage. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) (Wald and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential ground shaking in the source region and subsequently provide an estimate of the population exposure to potentially fatal levels of ground shaking in any region of the world. The contribution of surficial geology (particularly soft sediments) to the amplification of ground shaking is an important component in predicting the levels of ground motion observed at any site. Unfortunately, the availability of information regarding seismic siteconditions is only available at a few sites around the globe. Herein, we describe a methodology for deriving maps of seismic site-conditions anywhere in the world using topographic slope as a proxy. Average shear-velocity down to 30 m (or VS30) measurements are correlated against topographic slope to develop two sets of coefficients for predicting VS30: one for active tectonic regions that possess dynamic topographic relief, and one for stable continental regions where changes in topography are more subdued. These coefficients have been applied to the continental United States, in addition to other regions around the world. They are subsequently compared to existing site-condition maps based on geology and observed VS30 measurements, where available. The application of the topographic slope method in regions with abundant VS30 measurements (for example California, Memphis, and Taiwan) indicates that this method provides site condition-maps of similar quality, or in some cases, maps superior to those developed from more traditional techniques. Having a first-order assessment of seismic site-conditions anywhere in the world provides a valuable tool to rapidly estimate ground motions following any global earthquake, the primary motivation for this research. These VS30 maps will enable us to better quantify possible ground shaking and rapidly deliver these predictions to emergency managers and responders. In addition, the VS30 maps for the globe will also have practical applications for numerous related probabilistic- and scenario-based studies. To date, several researchers have requested maps or have used the approach outlined herein for their own applications (for example Cagnan and Kariptas, written commun., 2007; Harmandar and others, 2007). Given that we anticipate a significant demand for these products, we have developed an internet delivery service so that users can download maps and grids of seismic site-conditions for specified regions. To some extent, these grids can also be customized by the user if they disagree with the predefined correlations derived using the methodologies described within this report. Finally, this report represents a more comprehensive account of this technique and provides a more fully illustrated global description of results than that given in Wald and Allen (2007), which has been accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Geologic and hydrogeologic frameworks of the Biscayne aquifer in central Miami-Dade County, Florida

Evaluations of the lithostratigraphy, lithofacies, paleontology, ichnology, depositional environments, and cyclostratigraphy from 11 test coreholes were linked to geophysical interpretations, and to results of hydraulic slug tests of six test coreholes at the Snapper Creek Well Field (SCWF), to construct geologic and hydrogeologic frameworks for the study area in central Miami-Dade County, Florida. The resulting geologic and hydrogeologic frameworks are consistent with those recently described for the Biscayne aquifer in the nearby Lake Belt area in Miami-Dade County and link the Lake Belt area frameworks with those developed for the SCWF study area. The hydrogeologic framework is characterized by a triple-porosity pore system of (1) matrix porosity (mainly mesoporous interparticle porosity, moldic porosity, and mesoporous to megaporous separate vugs), which under dynamic conditions, produces limited flow; (2) megaporous, touching-vug porosity that commonly forms stratiform groundwater passageways; and (3) conduit porosity, including bedding-plane vugs, decimeter-scale diameter vertical solution pipes, and meter-scale cavernous vugs. The various pore types and associated permeabilities generally have a predictable vertical spatial distribution related to the cyclostratigraphy. The Biscayne aquifer within the study area can be described as two major flow units separated by a single middle semiconfining unit. The upper Biscayne aquifer flow unit is present mainly within the Miami Limestone at the top of the aquifer and has the greatest hydraulic conductivity values, with a mean of 8,200 feet per day. The middle semiconfining unit, mainly within the upper Fort Thompson Formation, comprises continuous to discontinuous zones with (1) matrix porosity; (2) leaky, low permeability layers that may have up to centimeter-scale vuggy porosity with higher vertical permeability than horizontal permeability; and (3) stratiform flow zones composed of fossil moldic porosity, burrow related vugs, or irregular vugs. Flow zones with a mean hydraulic conductivity of 2,600 feet per day are present within the middle semiconfining unit, but none of the flow zones are continuous across the study area. The lower Biscayne aquifer flow unit comprises a group of flow zones in the lower part of the aquifer. These flow zones are present in the lower part of the Fort Thompson Formation and in some cases within the limestone or sandstone or both in the uppermost part of the Pinecrest Sand Member of the Tamiami Formation. The mean hydraulic conductivity of major flow zones within the lower Biscayne aquifer flow unit is 5,900 feet per day, and the mean value for minor flow zones is 2,900 feet per day. A semiconfining unit is present beneath the Biscayne aquifer. The boundary between the two hydrologic units is at the top or near the top of the Pinecrest Sand Member of the Tamiami Formation. The lower semiconfining unit has a hydraulic conductivity of less than 350 feet per day. The most productive zones of groundwater flow within the two Biscayne aquifer flow units have a characteristic pore system dominated by stratiform megaporosity related to selective dissolution of an Ophiomorpha-dominated ichnofabric. In the upper flow unit, decimeter-scale vertical solution pipes that are common in some areas of the SCWF study area contribute to high vertical permeability compared to that in areas without the pipes. Cross-hole flowmeter data collected from the SCWF test coreholes show that the distribution of vuggy porosity, matrix porosity, and permeability within the Biscayne aquifer of the SCWF is highly heterogeneous and anisotropic. Groundwater withdrawals from production well fields in southeastern Florida may be inducing recharge of the Biscayne aquifer from canals near the well fields that are used for water-management functions, such as flood control and well-field pumping. The SCWF was chosen as a location within Miami-Dade County to study the potential for such recharge to the Biscayne aquifer from the C–2 (Snapper Creek) canal that roughly divides the well field in half. Geologic, hydrogeologic, and hydraulic information on the aquifer collected during construction of monitoring wells within the SCWF could be used to evaluate the groundwater flow budget at the well-field scale.

Florida↗

USGS1999

Hydrogeology of the unsaturated zone, North Ramp area of the Exploratory Studies Facility, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada, is being investigated by the U.S. Department of Energy as a potential site for a repository for high-level radioactive waste. This report documents the results of surface-based geologic, pneumatic, hydrologic, and geochemical studies conducted during 1992 to 1996 by the U.S. Geological Survey in the vicinity of the North Ramp of the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) that are pertinent to understanding multiphase fluid flow within the deep unsaturated zone. Detailed stratigraphic and structural characteristics of the study area provided the hydrogeologic framework for these investigations. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that gas flow and liquid flow within the welded tuffs of the unsaturated zone occur primarily through fractures. Fracture densities are highest in the Tiva Canyon welded (TCw) and Topopah Spring welded (TSw) hydrogeologic units. Although fracture density is much lower in the intervening nonwelded and bedded tuffs of the Paintbrush nonwelded hydrogeologic unit (PTn), pneumatic and aqueous-phase isotopic evidence indicates that substantial secondary permeability is present locally in the PTn, especially in the vicinity of faults. Borehole air-injection tests indicate that bulk air-permeability ranges from 3.5x10 -14 to 5.4x10 -11 square meters for the welded tuffs and from 1.2x10 -13 to 3.0x10 -12 square meters for the non welded and bedded tuffs of the PTn. Analyses of in-situ pneumatic-pressure data from monitored boreholes produced estimates of bulk permeability that were comparable to those determined from the air-injection tests. In many cases, both sets of estimates are two to three orders of magnitude larger than estimates based on laboratory analyses of unfractured core samples. The in-situ pneumatic-pressure records also indicate that the unsaturated-zone pneumatic system consists of four subsystems that coincide with the four major hydrogeologic units of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain. In descending order, these hydrogeologic units are the Tiva Canyon welded (TCw), Paintbrush nonwelded (PTn), Topopah Spring welded (TSw ), and Calico Hills nonwelded (CHn). Deep percolation takes place as episodic pulses of inflow that propagate rapidly to depth and apparently bypass most of the rock matrix. Field-scale and core-scale water potentials throughout much of the PTn and TSw are very high, generally greater than -0.3 megapascals, and are nearly depth invariant. Thus, the imbibition capacity of the densely welded tuffs, at least near fractures, is very small because of low matrix permeabilities and low water-potential gradients across the fracture-matrix interface. The combination of high fracture permeability, high water potentials, high matrix saturations, and low matrix permeabilities results in a percolation environment that favors deep fracture flow. The episodic pulses of inflow are evidenced in the sporadic but nevertheless commonplace occurrence of water with concentrations of radioactive isotopes indicative of origins postdating the atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons. High concentrations of tritium have been detected at many horizons within the PTn and in the top of the TSw. Much lower concentrations of tritium, indicating the mixing of a bomb-pulse component with older water, have been detected in the deeper sections of the TSw and in the CHn. Evidence for fracture flow also is apparent in the widespread occurrence of perched water with chemical and isotopic signatures that indicate a fracture-flow origin for at least some of this water. In the North Ramp area, perched water has been detected at the base of the Topopah Spring Tuff or in the top of the underlying non welded to partially welded tuffs of the Calico Hills Formation in every dry-drilled borehole of sufficient depth to penetrate the Topopah Spring Tuff-Calico Hills Formation contact. The concentrations of the major ions of the perched water are similar to that of TSw pore water at borehole UZ-14, CHn pore water, and saturated-zone water at boreholes NRG-7 a and SD-9. The absolute chloride concentration of the perched water, however, is much lower than the chloride concentration of pore water from either the PTn or the TSw. The chemical and isotopic compositions of perched water indicate that this water was derived primarily from fracture flow, with little or no contribution from water in the matrix of the overlying rock. Carbon-14 ages of perched water range from 3,000 to 7,000 years. Strontium-87 isotope ratios indicate dissolution of surficial pedogenic calcite and calcite fracture fillings, which supports a fracture-flow origin for perched water. Moreover, carbon-13 and deuterium isotope values indicate rapid infiltration into fractures with little or no prior evaporation. Evidence for deep fracture flow into the Calico Hills Formation at UZ-14 is indicated by carbon-14 values that are from 65 and 95 percent modem carbon, equivalent to apparent ages of about 3,500 to 500 years. Some of these ages are younger than age estimates for perched water in the overlying Topopah Spring Tuff and are much younger than any that could be derived from a matrix-flow model. Evidence is lacking for extensive lateral flow within the PTn or for interception and diversion of this flow downward along structural pathways (faults), two key features of the original conceptual model for unsaturated flow at Yucca Mountain. Where data are available to infer lateral flow in the PTn, it is not certain that fracture flow could not have produced the same results. Pneumatic data, derived primarily from analysis of the interference effects from excavation of the North Ramp tunnel, indicate that faults within the Topopah Spring Tuff are open over substantial distances and are very permeable. Tunnel-boring-induced pneumatic disturbances have been propagated along these faults over distances that exceed 500 meters. These disturbances also have been detected in the pneumatic-pressure record of the overlying PTn in the vicinity of these faults. In spite of the apparent high permeability of faults, the existing data have neither confirmed nor refuted the hypothetical role of these faults in intercepting lateral flow from within or from above the PTn and diverting this flow downward into the deeper subsurface. On the basis of measured temperature gradients within the TSw, deep percolation appears to be greatest beneath active channels of major drainages, diminishing toward the margins and hillslopes bordering these channels. Numerical simulations indicate that this downward percolation is accompanied by lateral spreading as the percolation front moves downward through the PTn and across the contact between the PTn and underlying TSw. Temperature data from a well-documented site in Pagany Wash indicate the presence of a significant heat-flow deficit between the PTn and underlying TSw that most likely is due to nonconductive heat-flow processes with substantial capacity to extract heat. Percolation fluxes on the order of 10 to 20 millimeters per year beneath the Pagany Wash channel and on the order of 5 millimeters per year or less beneath the hillslopes bordering this drainage accounted for the apparent heat-flow deficit. Analyses of borehole temperature gradients in Drill Hole Wash indicate similar percolation fluxes and flux distributions within that drainage. An analysis of residence times estimated from uncorrected carbon-14 activities of perched-water samples and estimates for the volume of the structurally controlled reservoir, however, showed that the perched-water reservoir intersected by borehole UZ-14 under Drill Hole Wash could be sustained by percolation fluxes through the TSw of as little as 0.001 to 0.29 millimeter per year. The significance and implications of these findings with respect to waste isolation are discussed in the appendix of this report.

Nevada↗