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USGS2006

External quality-assurance results for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program / National Trends Network and Mercury Deposition Network, 2004

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used five programs to provide external quality-assurance monitoring for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) and two programs to provide external quality-assurance monitoring for the NADP/Mercury Deposition Network (NADP/MDN) during 2004. An intersite-comparison program was used to estimate accuracy and precision of field-measured pH and specific-conductance. The variability and bias of NADP/NTN data attributed to field exposure, sample handling and shipping, and laboratory chemical analysis were estimated using the sample-handling evaluation (SHE), field-audit, and interlaboratory-comparison programs. Overall variability of NADP/NTN data was estimated using a collocated-sampler program. Variability and bias of NADP/MDN data attributed to field exposure, sample handling and shipping, and laboratory chemical analysis were estimated using a system-blank program and an interlaboratory-comparison program. In two intersite-comparison studies, approximately 89 percent of NADP/NTN site operators met the pH measurement accuracy goals, and 94.7 to 97.1 percent of NADP/NTN site operators met the accuracy goals for specific conductance. Field chemistry measurements were discontinued by NADP at the end of 2004. As a result, the USGS intersite-comparison program also was discontinued at the end of 2004. Variability and bias in NADP/NTN data due to sample handling and shipping were estimated from paired-sample concentration differences and specific conductance differences obtained for the SHE program. Median absolute errors (MAEs) equal to less than 3 percent were indicated for all measured analytes except potassium and hydrogen ion. Positive bias was indicated for most of the measured analytes except for calcium, hydrogen ion and specific conductance. Negative bias for hydrogen ion and specific conductance indicated loss of hydrogen ion and decreased specific conductance from contact of the sample with the collector bucket. Field-audit results for 2004 indicate dissolved analyte loss in more than one-half of NADP/NTN wet-deposition samples for all analytes except chloride. Concentrations of contaminants also were estimated from field-audit data. On the basis of 2004 field-audit results, at least 25 percent of the 2004 NADP/NTN concentrations for sodium, potassium, and chloride were lower than the maximum sodium, potassium, and chloride contamination likely to be found in 90 percent of the samples with 90-percent confidence. Variability and bias in NADP/NTN data attributed to chemical analysis by the NADP Central Analytical Laboratory (CAL) were comparable to the variability and bias estimated for other laboratories participating in the interlaboratory-comparison program for all analytes. Variability in NADP/NTN ammonium data evident in 2002-03 was reduced substantially during 2004. Sulfate, hydrogen-ion, and specific conductance data reported by CAL during 2004 were positively biased. A significant (a = 0.05) bias was identified for CAL sodium, potassium, ammonium, and nitrate data, but the absolute values of the median differences for these analytes were less than the method detection limits. No detections were reported for CAL analyses of deionized-water samples, indicating that contamination was not a problem for CAL. Control charts show that CAL data were within statistical control during at least 90 percent of 2004. Most 2004 CAL interlaboratory-comparison results for synthetic wet-deposition solutions were within ?10 percent of the most probable values (MPVs) for solution concentrations except for chloride, nitrate, sulfate, and specific conductance results from one sample in November and one specific conductance result in December. Overall variability of NADP/NTN wet-deposition measurements was estimated during water year 2004 by the median absolute errors for weekly wet-deposition sample concentrations and precipitation measurements for tw

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

External quality-assurance project report for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network and Mercury Deposition Network, 2009-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey operated six distinct programs to provide external quality-assurance monitoring for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NTN) and Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) during 2009–2010. The field-audit program assessed the effects of onsite exposure, sample handling, and shipping on the chemistry of NTN samples; a system-blank program assessed the same effects for MDN. Two interlaboratory-comparison programs assessed the bias and variability of the chemical analysis data from the Central Analytical Laboratory (CAL) and Mercury (Hg) Analytical Laboratory (HAL). The blind-audit program was also implemented for the MDN to evaluate analytical bias in total Hg concentration data produced by the HAL. The co-located-sampler program was used to identify and quantify potential shifts in NADP data resulting from replacement of original network instrumentation with new electronic recording rain gages (E-gages) and precipitation collectors that use optical sensors. The results indicate that NADP data continue to be of sufficient quality for the analysis of spatial distributions and time trends of chemical constituents in wet deposition across the United States. Results also suggest that retrofit of the NADP networks with the new precipitation collectors could cause –8 to +14 percent shifts in NADP annual precipitation-weighted mean concentrations and total deposition values for ammonium, nitrate, sulfate, and hydrogen ion, and larger shifts (+13 to +74 percent) for calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, and chloride. The prototype N-CON Systems bucket collector is more efficient in the catch of precipitation in winter than Aerochem Metrics Model 301 collector, especially for light snowfall.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

External quality assurance project report for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program’s National Trends Network and Mercury Deposition Network, 2017–18

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation Chemistry Quality Assurance project (PCQA) operated five distinct programs to provide external quality-assurance monitoring for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program’s (NADP) National Trends Network and Mercury Deposition Network during 2017–18. The National Trends Network programs included (1) a field audit program to evaluate sample contamination and stability, (2) an interlaboratory comparison program to evaluate analytical laboratory performance, and (3) a colocated sampler program to evaluate variability attributed to automated precipitation samplers. The Mercury Deposition Network programs include the (4) system blank program and (5) an interlaboratory comparison program. The results indicate consistently low levels of sample contamination, generally strong analytical laboratory performance, and low overall variability in concentration data imparted by field equipment. The NADP operations moved from its 40-year home at the Illinois State Water Survey to the Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene in June 2018. The PCQA programs were modified and (or) temporarily curtailed during the transition in 2018. Bias and variability of sample analysis results were evaluated for the two Central Analytical Laboratories, and ongoing monitoring will be helpful to differentiate true environmental signals from the effects of changing laboratory conditions and performance. Results of quality assurance sample analyses are provided to document that NADP data continue to be of sufficient quality for the analysis of spatial distributions and time trends for chemical constituents in wet deposition.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2023

External quality-assurance project report for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program’s National Trends Network and Mercury Deposition Network, 2019–20

The U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation Chemistry Quality Assurance project (PCQA) operated four distinct programs to provide external quality-assurance monitoring for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program’s (NADP) National Trends Network (NTN) and Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) during 2019–20. The NTN programs included (1) a field audit program to evaluate sample contamination and stability, and (2) an interlaboratory comparison program to evaluate analytical laboratory performance. The MDN programs included the (3) system blank program to evaluate sample contamination and stability, and (4) an interlaboratory comparison program. The results indicated increased levels of sample contamination compared to previous years for NTN samples and decreased contamination in MDN samples. Strong analytical laboratory performance with low overall variability and bias in concentration data were indicated for the NTN’s Central Analytical Laboratory. A positive bias in the hydrogen ion concentrations in NTN samples during 2019 was eliminated by correction of a pH calibration protocol during 2020. The MDN’s Mercury Analytical Laboratory performance declined in 2020 compared to 2019 as indicated by increased variability in analytical results and a negative bias of approximately -1 nanogram per liter in the concentrations of total mercury. Slight perturbations in contamination levels in NTN samples and in analytical performance for MDN are considered small. The PCQA results indicate that NADP data continue to be of sufficient quality for applications in independent research and NADP data products, including spatial interpolations and time trends for chemical constituents in wet deposition. Small shifts in data quality indicated by the 2019–20 PCQA results are intended to be used for interpretation of the NADP data products.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

External quality-assurance project report for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program National Trends Network and Mercury Deposition Network, 2021–22

The U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation Chemistry Quality Assurance project (PCQA) operated five distinct programs to provide external quality-assurance monitoring for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) National Trends Network (NTN) and Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) during 2021–22. The NTN programs included (1) a field audit program to evaluate sample contamination and stability, (2) an interlaboratory-comparison program to evaluate analytical laboratory performance, and (3) a colocated sampler program to estimate overall variability of NTN wet-deposition measurements, and the MDN programs included the (4) system blank program to evaluate sample contamination and stability and (5) an interlaboratory-comparison program. The results indicated increased levels of sample contamination compared to previous years for NTN samples and decreased contamination in MDN samples. Strong analytical laboratory performance with low overall variability and bias in concentration data was indicated for the NTN Central Analytical Laboratory. Slight perturbations in contamination levels in NTN samples and in analytical performance for MDN are considered inconsequential. The colocated sampler program results indicated overall variability in NTN data to range from 0 to 30.3 percent for cations, 1.6 to 11.4 percent for ammonium, 0.8 to 20.2 percent for anions, 10.3 to 17.2 percent for hydrogen-ion concentration, and 1.5 to 12.2 percent for specific conductance. The PCQA results indicate that NADP data continue to be of sufficient quality for applications in independent research and NADP data products, including spatial interpolations and time trends for chemical constituents in wet deposition. Small shifts in data quality indicated by the 2021–22 PCQA results are included to be used for interpretation of the NADP data products.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

External quality-assurance results for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network, 1997-99

Five external quality-assurance programs were operated by the U.S. Geological Survey for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/ National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) during 1997 through 1999: the intersite-comparison program, the blind-audit program, the field- audit program, the interlaboratory-comparison program, and the collocated-sampler program. The intersite-comparison program assesses the accuracy of pH and specific-conductance determinations made by NADP/NTN site operators. In two 1997 intersite-comparison studies, 83.7 and 85.8 percent of the pH determinations met the NADP/NTN accuracy goals, whereas 97.3 and 92.4 percent of the specific-conductance determinations met the NADP/NTN accuracy goals. The percentage of pH and specific-conductance determinations that met the accuracy goals in 1998 were, for the most part, higher than in 1997. In two 1998 studies, 90.9 and 90.3 percent of the pH determinations met the accuracy goals compared to 94.7 and 96.0 percent of the specific- conductance measurements meeting the accuracy goals. In one 1999 intersite-comparison study, 89.5 percent and 99.4 percent of pH and specific- conductance determinations, respectively, met the NADP/NTN accuracy goals. The blind-audit program evaluates the effects of routine sample handling, processing, and shipping on the analytical bias and precision of weekly precipitation samples. A portion of the blind-audit sample subject to the normal onsite handling and processing of a weekly precipitation sample is referred to as the bucket portion, whereas the portion receiving only minimal handling is referred to as the bottle portion. Positive bias in regard to blind-audit results indicates that the bucket portion has a higher concentration than the bottle portion. The paired t-test for the 1997 through 1999 blind- audit data indicates that routine sample handling, processing, and shipping introduced a positive bias (a=0.05) for calcium and chloride and a negative bias (cz=0.05) for hydrogen ion. During 1997 through 1999, the median paired differences between the bucket and bottle portions ranged from 0.00 milligram per liter for nitrate and ammonium to +0.010 milligram per liter for both chloride and sulfate. The median paired difference between the bucket and bottle portions for hydrogen ion was -1.086 microequivalents per liter, whereas for specific conductance, the median paired difference between the bucket and bottle portions was -0.200 microsiemen per centimeter during 1997 through 1999. Surface-chemistry effects due to variable amounts of precipitation contacting prewashed sample-collection and shipping-container surfaces were studied in the blind-audit program by using three different sample volumes. The sample- collection and shipping containers used for the blind-audit study were obtained from the site operator's supply and could have been used for precipitation samples. Results of a Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance test of the relation between paired blind-audit sample differences in units of concentration and sample volume were statistically significant for magnesium, chloride, sulfate, and hydrogen ion during 1997 through 1999. Before 1994, at least 5 of the 10 analytes displayed a statistically significant difference between paired blind-audit differences in units of concentration and sample volume, supporting the premise that chemical reactions between the 13-liter bucket shipping container (primarily the butadiene o-ring lid of the shipping container) and the sample, which resulted in an increasing loss of hydrogen ion with increasing volume, have been eliminated by the new l-liter bottle sample- shipping protocol. The field-audit program measures the effects of field exposure, handling, and processing on the chemistry of NADP/NTN precipitation samples. In the field-audit program, the site operator is instructed to process and submit a quality- control sample following a standard 7-day, Tuesday-to-Tuesday sampling period with no

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1987

Trace organic compounds in wet atmospheric deposition: an overview

An overview of the occurrence of organic compounds in wet atmospheric deposition is given. Multiplicity of sources and problems associated with source identification are discussed. Available literature is reviewed by using citations from Chemical Abstracts and Water Resources Abstracts through June 1985 and includes reports published through December 1984 that summarize current knowledge. Approaches to the chemical determination of organic compounds in precipitation are examined in addition to aspects of sampling protocols. Best methods for sample collection and preparation for instrumental analysis continue to be discussed among various investigators. Automatic wet-deposition-only devices for collection and extraction are preferred. Classes of organic compounds that have been identified in precipitation include a spectrum of compounds with differing properties of acidity or basicity, polarity, and water solubility. Those compounds that have been reported in rainfall, snowfall, and ice include hydrocarbons (both aromatic and nonaromatic), chlorinated derivatives of these hydrocarbons, carbonyl compounds (both acidic and nonacidic), and carboxylic acids and esters. Formic and acetic are the most abundant organic acids present. Cloudwater, fogwater, and mist also have been collected and analyzed for organic composition.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1987

Bias and precision of selected analytes reported by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network, 1984

The U.S. Geological Survey operated a blind audit sample program during 1974 to test the effects of the sample handling and shipping procedures used by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network on the quality of wet deposition data produced by the combined networks. Blind audit samples, which were dilutions of standard reference water samples, were submitted by network site operators to the central analytical laboratory disguised as actual wet deposition samples. Results from the analyses of blind audit samples were used to calculate estimates of analyte bias associated with all network wet deposition samples analyzed in 1984 and to estimate analyte precision. Concentration differences between double blind samples that were submitted to the central analytical laboratory and separate analyses of aliquots of those blind audit samples that had not undergone network sample handling and shipping were used to calculate analyte masses that apparently were added to each blind audit sample by routine network handling and shipping procedures. These calculated masses indicated statistically significant biases for magnesium, sodium , potassium, chloride, and sulfate. Median calculated masses were 41.4 micrograms (ug) for calcium, 14.9 ug for magnesium, 23.3 ug for sodium, 0.7 ug for potassium, 16.5 ug for chloride and 55.3 ug for sulfate. Analyte precision was estimated using two different sets of replicate measures performed by the central analytical laboratory. Estimated standard deviations were similar to those previously reported. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1987

An assessment of the variability in performance of wet atmospheric deposition samplers

The variability in performance of two brands of wet/dry atmospheric deposition samplers were compared for 1 year at a sincle site. A total of nine samplers were used. Samples were collected weekly and analyzed for pH, specific conductance, common chemical constituents, and sample volume. Additionally, data on the duration of each sampler opening were recorded using a microdatalogger. These data disprove the common perception that samplers remain open throughout a precipitation event. The sensitivity of sampler sensors within the range tested did not have a defineable impact on sample collection. The nonnormal distribution within the data set necessitated application of the nonparametric Friedman Test to assess comparability of sample chemical composition and volume between and within sampler brands. Statistically significant differences existed for most comparisons, however the test did not permit quantification of their magnitudes. Differences in analyte concentrations between samplers were small. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1988

External quality-assurance results for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and the National Trends Network during 1986

During 1986, the U.S. Geological Survey operated three programs to provide external quality-assurance monitoring of the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network. An intersite-comparison program was used to assess the accuracy of onsite pH and specific-conductance determinations at quarterly intervals. The blind-audit program was used to assess the effect of routine sample handling on the precision and bias of program and network wet-deposition data. Analytical results from four laboratories, which routinely analyze wet-deposition samples, were examined to determine if differences existed between laboratory analytical results and to provide estimates of the analytical precision of each laboratory. An average of 78 and 89 percent of the site operators participating in the intersite-comparison met the network goals for pH and specific conductance. A comparison of analytical values versus actual values for samples submitted as part of the blind-audit program indicated that analytical values were slightly but significantly (a = 0.01) larger than actual values for pH, magnesium, sodium, and sulfate; analytical values for specific conductance were slightly less than actual values. The decreased precision in the analyses of blind-audit samples when compared to interlaboratory studies indicates that a large amount of uncertainty in network deposition data may be a result of routine field operations. The results of the interlaboratory comparison study indicated that the magnitude of the difference between laboratory analyses was small for all analytes. Analyses of deionized, distilled water blanks by participating laboratories indicated that the laboratories had difficulty measuring analyte concentrations near their reported detection limits. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1995

External quality-assurance results for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network during 1991

The U.S. Geological Survey used four programs in 1991 to provide external quality assurance for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN). An intersite-comparison program was used to evaluate onsite pH and specific-conductance determinations. The effects of routine sample handling, processing, and shipping of wet-deposition samples on analyte determinations and an estimated precision of analyte values and concentrations were evaluated in the blind-audit program. Differences between analytical results and an estimate of the analytical precision of four laboratories routinely measuring wet deposition were determined by an interlaboratory-comparison program. Overall precision estimates for the precipitation-monitoring system were determined for selected sites by a collocated-sampler program. Results of the intersite-comparison program indicated that 93 and 86 percent of the site operators met the NADP/NTN accuracy goal for pH determinations during the two intersite-comparison studies completed during 1991. The results also indicated that 96 and 97 percent of the site operators met the NADP/NTN accuracy goal for specific-conductance determinations during the two 1991 studies. The effects of routine sample handling, processing, and shipping, determined in the blind-audit program indicated significant positive bias (a=.O 1) for calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, nitrate, and sulfate. Significant negative bias (or=.01) was determined for hydrogen ion and specific conductance. Only ammonium determinations were not biased. A Kruskal-Wallis test indicated that there were no significant (*3t=.01) differences in analytical results from the four laboratories participating in the interlaboratory-comparison program. Results from the collocated-sampler program indicated the median relative error for cation concentration and deposition exceeded eight percent at most sites, whereas the median relative error for sample volume, sulfate, and nitrate concentration at all sites was less than four percent. The median relative error for hydrogen ion concentration and deposition ranged from 4.6 to 18.3 percent at the four sites and as indicated in previous years of the study, was inversely proportional to the acidity of the precipitation at a given site. Overall, collocated-sampling error typically was five times that of laboratory error estimates for most analytes.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1999

External quality-assurance results for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network, 1995-96

The U.S. Geological Survey operated four external quality-assurance programs for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) in 1995 and 1996: the intersite-comparison program, the blind-audit program, the interlaboratory- comparison program, and the collocated-sampler program. The intersite-comparison program assessed the precision and bias of pH and specific-conductance determinations made by NADP/NTN site operators. The analytical bias introduced during routine handling, processing, and shipping of wet-deposition samples and precision of analyte values was estimated using a blind-audit program. An interlaboratory-comparison program was used to evaluate differences between analytical results and to estimate the analytical precision of five North American laboratories that routinely analyzed wet deposition. A collocated-sampler program estimated the precision of the overall precipitation collection and analysis system from initial sample collection through final storage of the data. Results of two intersite-comparison studies completed in 1995 indicated 94.6 and 94.4 percent of the onsite pH determinations met the NADP/NTN accuracy goals, whereas 97.2 and 98.3 percent of the specific-conductance determinations were within the established limits. The percentages of onsite determinations that met the accuracy goals in 1996 were slightly less for both pH and specific-conductance than in 1995. In 1996, 93.2 and 87.5 percent of onsite pH determinations met the accuracy goals, whereas the percentage of onsite specific-conductance measurements that met the goals was 93.9 and 94.9 percent.The blind audit program utilizes a paired sample design to evaluate the effects of routine sample handling, processing and shipping on the chemistry of weekly precipitation samples. The portion of the blind audit sample subject to all of the normal onsite handling and processing steps of a regular weekly precipitation sample is referred to as the bucket portion, whereas the portion receiving only minimal handling is referred to as the bottle portion. Throughout the report, the term positive bias in regard to blind-audit results indicates that the bucket portion had a higher concentration than the bottle portion. The paired t-test of 1995 blind-audit data indicated that routine sample handling, processing, and shipping introduced a very small positive bias (a=0.05) for hydrogen ion and specific conductance and a slight negative bias (a =0.05) for ammonium and sodium. In 1995, the median paired differences between the bucket and bottle portions ranged from -0.02 milligram per liter for both ammonium and nitrate to +0.002 milligram per liter for calcium. Although the paired t-test indicated a very small positive bias for hydrogen ion, the median paired difference between the bucket and bottle portions was 0.00 microequivalents per liter, whereas for specific conductance, the median paired difference between the bucket and bottle portions was 0.200 microsiemens per centimeter in 1995. The paired t-test of blind-audit results in 1996 indicated statistically significant bias for 6 of the 10 analytes. Only chloride, nitrate, hydrogen ion, and specific conductance were not biased in 1996. However, the magnitude of the bias in 1996 was very small and only of limited importance from the viewpoint of an analytical chemist or data user. The median paired differences between the bucket and bottle portions ranged from -0.02 milligram per liter for both ammonium and chloride to +0.006 milligram per liter for calcium. For hydrogen ion, the median paired difference between the bucket and bottle portions was -0.357 microequivalent per liter; for specific conductance, the median paired difference between the bucket and bottle portions was 0.00 microsiemens per centimeter in 1996. Surface-chemistry effects due to different amounts of precipitation contacting the sample collection and shipping container surfac

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Evaluation of an offline method for the analysis of atmospheric reactive gaseous mercury and particulate mercury

Reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) and particulate mercury (PHg) were collected in Milwaukee, WI, between April 2004 and May 2005, and in Riverside, CA, between July 25 and August 7, 2005 using sorbent and filter substrates. The substrates were analyzed for mercury by thermal desorption analysis (TDA) using a purpose-built instrument. Results from this offline-TDA method were compared with measurements using a real-time atmospheric mercury analyzer. RGM measurements made with the offline-TDA agreed well with a commercial real-time method. However, the offline TDA reported PHg concentrations 2.7 times higher than the real-time method, indicating evaporative losses might be occurring from the real-time instrument during sample collection. TDA combined with reactive mercury collection on filter and absorbent substrates was cheap, relatively easy to use, did not introduce biases due to a semicontinuous sample collection strategy, and had a dynamic range appropriate for use in rural and urban locations. The results of this study demonstrate that offline-TDA is a feasible method for collecting reactive mercury concentrations in a large network of filter-based samplers. Copyright 2008 Air & Waste Management Association.

Journal of the Air and Waste Management Associatio↗

USGS2021

Broad-scale surface and atmospheric conditions during large fires in south-central Chile

The unprecedented size of the 2017 wildfires that burned nearly 600,000 hectares of central Chile highlight a need to better understand the climatic conditions under which large fires develop. Here we evaluate synoptic atmospheric conditions at the surface and free troposphere associated with anomalously high (active) versus low (inactive) months of area burned in south-central Chile (ca. 32–41° S) from the Chilean Forest Service (CONAF) record of area burned from 1984–2018. Active fire months are correlated with warm surface temperatures, dry conditions, and the presence of a circumpolar assemblage of high-pressure systems located ca. 40°–60° S. Additionally, warm surface temperatures associated with active fire months are linked to reduced strength of cool, onshore westerly winds and an increase in warm, downslope Andean Cordillera easterly winds. Episodic warm downslope winds and easterly wind anomalies superimposed on long-term warming and drying trends will continue to create conditions that promote large fires in south-central Chile. Identifying the mechanisms responsible for easterly wind anomalies and determining whether this trend is strengthening due to synoptic-scale climatic changes such as the poleward shift in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds will be critical for anticipating future large fire activity in south-central Chile.

Fire↗

USGS1998

Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

Interannual variations of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) is used here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO 2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO 2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO 2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO 2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO 2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7 days at Mauna Loa and 18 days at the South Pole. Interannual CO 2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3 years) -1 and (4 years) -1 , respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO 2 concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO 2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO 2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO 2 variations of about 6–8 months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO 2 and δ13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO 2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in CO 2 mostly reflect upwelling variations in the eastern tropical Pacific. QQ variations are dominated by the CO 2 signature of terrestrial-ecosystem response to global QQ climate variations. Climate variations associated with these two interannual components of tropical variability have very different effects on global climate and, especially, on terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗

USGS2023

Changes in mangrove blue carbon under elevated atmospheric CO2

While there is consensus that blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangroves, have an important role in mitigating some aspects of global climate change, little is known about mangrove carbon cycling under elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ( e CO 2 ). Here, we review studies in order to identify pathways for how e CO 2 might influence mangrove ecosystem carbon cycling. In general, e CO 2 alters plant productivity, species community composition, carbon fluxes, and carbon deposition in ways that enhance mangrove carbon storage with e CO 2 . As a result, a negative feedback to climate change exists whereby e CO 2 adds to mangrove’s ability to sequester additional carbon, which in turn reduces the rate by which CO 2 builds. Furthermore, e CO 2 affects warming and sea-level rise (SLR) through alternate pathways, which coinfluence the mangrove response in both antagonistic (i.e., warming = greater carbon loss to decomposition) and synergistic (i.e., SLR = greater soil carbon burial) ways. e CO 2 is projected to become a more prominent driver in the future before reaching a steady state. However, given the complexity of the interactions of biological and environmental factors with e CO 2 , long-term field observations and in situ simulation experiments can help to better understand the mechanisms for proper model initialization to predict future changes in mangrove carbon sequestration.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗

USGS2020

Development of a submerged aquatic vegetation growth model in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST v3.4) model

The coupled biophysical interactions between submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), hydrodynamics (currents and waves), sediment dynamics, and nutrient cycling have long been of interest in estuarine environments. Recent observational studies have addressed feedbacks between SAV meadows and their role in modifying current velocity, sedimentation, and nutrient cycling. To represent these dynamic processes in a numerical model, the presence of SAV and its effect on hydrodynamics (currents and waves) and sediment dynamics was incorporated into the open-source Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) model. In this study, we extend the COAWST modeling framework to account for dynamic changes of SAV and associated epiphyte biomass. Modeled SAV biomass is represented as a function of temperature, light, and nutrient availability. The modeled SAV community exchanges nutrients, detritus, dissolved inorganic carbon, and dissolved oxygen with the water-column biogeochemistry model. The dynamic simulation of SAV biomass allows the plants to both respond to and cause changes in the water column and sediment bed properties, hydrodynamics, and sediment transport (i.e., a two-way feedback). We demonstrate the behavior of these modeled processes through application to an idealized domain and then apply the model to a eutrophic harbor where SAV dieback is a result of anthropogenic nitrate loading and eutrophication. These cases demonstrate an advance in the deterministic modeling of coupled biophysical processes and will further our understanding of future ecosystem change.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS1999

Estimates of runoff using water-balance and atmospheric general circulation models

The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.

Conference Paper↗