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USGS2018

Executive summary. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report

Central to life on Earth, carbon is essential to the molecular makeup of all living things and plays a key role in regulating global climate. To understand carbon’s role in these processes, researchers measure and evaluate carbon stocks and fluxes. A stock is the quantity of carbon contained in a pool or reservoir in the Earth system (e.g., carbon in forest trees), and a flux is the direction and rate of carbon’s transfer between pools (e.g., the movement of carbon from the atmosphere into forest trees during photosynthesis). This document, the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2), examines the patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes—collectively called the “carbon cycle.” Emphasis is given to these patterns in specific sectors (e.g., agriculture and energy) and ecosystems (e.g., forests and coastal waters) and to the response of the carbon cycle to human activity. The purpose of SOCCR2 is to assess the current state of the North American carbon cycle and to present recent advances in understanding the factors that influence it. Concentrating on North America—Canada, the United States, and Mexico—the report describes carbon cycling for air, land, inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs), and coastal waters (see Figure ES.1, p. 23). The questions framing the publication A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (Michalak et al., 2011) inspired development of three slightly modified questions that guide SOCCR2’s content and focus on North America in a global context: How have natural processes and human actions affected the global carbon cycle on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean and other aquatic systems, and at ecosystem interfaces (e.g., coastal, wetland, and urban-rural)? How have socioeconomic trends affected atmospheric levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)? How have species, ecosystems, natural resources, and human systems been impacted by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, associated changes in climate, and carbon management decisions and practices? SOCCR2 synthesizes the most recent understanding of carbon cycling in North America, assessing new carbon cycle findings and information, the state of knowledge regarding core methods used to study the carbon cycle, and future research needed to best inform carbon management and policy options. Focusing on scientific developments in the decade since the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR1; CCSP 2007), SOCCR2 summarizes the past, current, and projected state of carbon sources, sinks, and natural processes, as well as contributions by human activities. In addition to CO2 and CH4, the report sometimes discusses nitrous oxide (N2O), a GHG associated with activities and processes that affect fluxes of carbon gases.1 SOCCR2 also describes improvements in analysis tools; developments in decision support; and new insights into ecosystem carbon cycling, human causes of changes in the carbon cycle, and social science perspectives on carbon. Since publication of SOCCR1, coordinated research from agencies in the three North American countries has enabled innovative observational, analytical, and modeling capabilities to further advance understanding of the North American carbon cycle (see Appendix D: Carbon Measurement Approaches and Accounting Frameworks, p. 834). Some of the report’s main conclusions, based on the Key Findings of each chapter, are highlighted in Box ES.1, Main Findings of SOCCR2, p. 24.

Report↗
USGS2020

A Bayesian framework for assessing extinction risk based on ordinal categories of population condition and projected landscape change

Many at-risk species lack standardized surveys across their range or quantitative data capable of detecting demographic trends. As a result, extinction risk assessments often rely on ordinal categories of risk based on explicit criteria or expert elicitation. This study demonstrates a Bayesian approach to assessing extinction risk based on this common data structure, using three freshwater mussel species being considered for listing under the US Endangered Species Act. The probability that a population is classified under each risk category was modeled as a function of projected landscape change using ordered probit regression, assuming observed categories reflect a latent, continuous probability of persistence. All three species were more likely than not (mean probability >0.5) to be classified as extirpated or low condition throughout their range based on effects of urban development and hydrologic alteration. Spatial variation in estimates revealed strongholds and high-risk areas relevant to conservation decision making. Projected change in probabilities of each risk category based on multiple land-use and climate models was generally small relative to high baseline risk resulting from past landscape changes. Assessing extinction risk based on probabilities of ordinal condition as a function of landscape patterns may provide a flexible and robust approach for many at-risk taxa by adjusting species' demographic criteria to match relative risk categories, following standardized criteria, or using expert elicitation for data-deficient species. This approach provides decision makers with a useful measure of uncertainty around ordinal classifications and provides a framework for estimating future risk based on projections of anthropogenic stressors.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South ↗
USGS2017

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS1987

Hydrology of area 59, northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain coal provinces, Colorado and Wyoming

Hydrologic information and analysis aid in decisions to lease federally owned coal and to prepare necessary Environmental Assessments and Impact Study reports. This need has become even more critical with the enactment of Public Law 95-87, the "Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977." This act requires an appropriate regulatory agency to issue permits, based on the review of permit-application data to assess hydrologic impacts. This report, which partially fulfills this requirement, is one in a series of nationwide coal province reports that present information thematically, through the use of a brief text and accompanying maps, graphs, charts, or other illustrations for single hydrologic topics. The report broadly characterizes the hydrology of Area 59 in north-central Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. The report area, located within the South Platte River basin, covers a 16,000-square-mile area of diverse geology, topography, and climate. This diversity results in contrasting hydrologic characteristics. The South Platte River, the major stream in the area, and most of its tributaries originate in granitic mountains and flow into and through the sedimentary rocks of the Great Plains. Altitudes range from less than 5,000 feet to more than 14,000 feet above sea level. Precipitation in the mountains may exceed 40 inches annually, much of it during the winter, and produces deep snowpacks. Snowmelt during the spring and summer produces most streamflow. Transmountain diversion of water from the streams on the western slope of the mountains also adds to the streamflow. Precipitation in the plains is as little as 10 inches annually. Streams that originate in the plains are ephemeral. Streamflow quality is best in the mountains, where dissolved-solids concentrations are generally small. Concentrations increase in the plains as streams flow through sedimentary basins, and as urbanization and irrigation increase. The quality of some mountain streams is affected by drainage from previous metalmining areas, as indicated by greater trace-element concentrations and smaller pH values. However, the large trace-element concentrations decrease rapidly downstream from the metal-mining areas. Because the climate is semiarid in most of the area, the soils are not adequately leached; therefore, flows in ephemeral streams usually have larger concentrations of dissolved solids than flows in perennial streams. Ground water is available throughout the area; yields range from less than 0.1 gallons per minute in the fractured granite aquifer in the mountains to more than 2,000 gallons per minute in the alluvial aquifer of the South Platte River valley. Major bedrock aquifers in order of decreasing age are the Laramie-Fox Hills, Arapahoe, Denver, and Dawson; these aquifers are used for municipal, domestic, and livestock supplies. Alluvial aquifers supply the high-yield irrigation wells. The best quality ground water is found at the center of the major bedrock aquifers, where dissolved-solids concentrations are less than 200 milligrams per liter. The poorest-quality water is usually found near the edges of these aquifers. Water in the coal-bearing Laramie and Denver Formations is locally affected by coal deposits, causing dissolved-solids concentrations to be relatively large. Only one coal mine is now operating in Area 59, the Coors Energy Company surface coal mine, which produced 100,000 short tons of subbituminous coal from the Upper Cretaceous Laramie Formation in 1982. Past coal-mining operations removed more than 130 million tons of coal and lignite from Area 59,99 percent of which came from underground mines. The largest coal production was in Weld and Boulder Counties, Colorado. Hydrologic problems related to surface mining are erosion, sedimentation, decline in water levels, disruption of aquifers, and degradation of water quality. Because the semiarid mine areas have very little runoff, and the major streams have large buffer and dilution capacities, the effects of mining on surface water is minimal. However, effects on ground water may be much more severe and long-lasting.

Colorado, Wyoming↗
USGS1972

Preliminary photointerpretation map of landslide and other surficial deposits of the Mount Hamilton quadrangle and parts of the Mount Boardman and San Jose quadrangles, Alameda and Santa Clara Counties, California

The nine San Francisco Bay region counties lie within a geologically active, young, and dynamic part of the central and northern Coast Ranges of California. Significant movements of the earth's crust are occurring here at the present time, posing numerous problems to urbanization, including some of special concern. Geological processes such as fault movements, earthquakes, land subsidence, landsliding, slow downslope movement of bedrock and surficial materials, coastal and stream erosion, flooding, and sedimentation are all potentially hazardous. Because of these factors, an understanding of the operation of physical processes in the bay region is desirable for harmonious, efficient, and safe land-use planning, particularly now, with greatly expanded pressures for urban growth. This map presents preliminary information about one aspect of the physical environment necessary to sound land-use planning--the nature and distribution of surficial deposits. Because surficial deposits are common and well developed in much of the bay region, it is useful to know how and why they have formed, as well as what properties they possess. When maps like this are used in combination with other types of environmental information, such as data on soils, bedrock geology, slopes, vegetation, climatic variation, seismic response, and hydrology, it should be easier to arrive at sound decisions regarding the physical aspects of land use. The U.S. Geological Survey is studying many of these factors in the bay region and hopes to provide the community with much of the required information as part of its San Francisco Bay Region Study in cooperation with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The representation of surficial deposits on this map reflects the way in which a geologist, working exclusively with aerial photographs, interpreted the origin of various elements of the present landscape. The deposits shown here have not been examined in the field. However, by viewing overlapping vertical aerial photographs through a stereoscope, the geologist sees a three-dimensional relief model of the ground surface and can study and interpret the origins of landforms with considerable ease. In fact, for mapping surficial deposits, particularly in reconnaissance-type studies, photointerpretation has advantages over both ground observations and laboratory studies of surficial materials. Of course, better information can be provided when all aspects of the study are integrated. These preliminary photointerpretation maps are only the first stage in a detailed study of surficial deposits in the bay region, but they should provide land-use planners with immediately useful information about the regional distribution of landslide and other surficial deposits. This map indicates the dominant surficial processes that have probably been operative by showing the distribution of different types of surficial deposits. Processes such as weathering, erosion, sedimentation, and the slow as well as rapid downslope movement of earth materials have constantly reshaped the land surface in the past and will continue to in the future, although at varying rates. The processes are interrelated to varying degrees. For example, crustal uplift of the Coast Ranges will lead to increased erosion and downcutting by streams that in turn generally results in increased deposition of sediments in river valleys, lakes, and shoreline areas. Older flood planes and river deposits may be eroded, leaving elevated terrace deposits. In addition, downcutting by streams may cause adjacent slopes to become unstable, thereby increasing the possibility of slope failures. Man's activities can alter natural physical processes in many ways. Simple acts such as overwatering a lawn or placing a septic tank drainfield in ground that is marginally stable may weaken the bedrock and surficial materials enough to induce landsliding. Relatively stable areas may be made unstable as a result of construction activities that involve cutting or oversteepening of natural slopes. Engineers, builders, conservationists, and others concerned with land use must evaluate the potential effects of all types of development, and maps that show the nature and distribution of surficial deposits should provide much of the basic information they need. This map, then, shows the cumulative effects of various processes that have yielded surficial deposits up to the time the photographs used for photointerpretation were taken. It does not indicate directly areas where processes will be most active, nor does it show the rate at which they will operate. However, knowledge of the history of geologic events is a key to understanding and predicting the evolution of an area, even where man's activities significantly change the character of the land. Almost all new landslides, for example, occur in areas with a history of landslide activity.

California↗
USGS2021

Developing a set of indicators to identify, monitor, and track impacts and change in forests of the United States

United States forestland is an important ecosystem type, land cover, land use, and economic resource that is facing several drivers of change including climatic. Because of its significance, forestland was identified through the National Climate Assessment (NCA) as a key sector and system of concern to be included in a system of climate indicators as part of a sustained assessment effort. Here, we describe 11 informative core indicators of forests and climate change impacts with metrics available or nearly available for use in the NCA efforts. The recommended indicators are based on a comprehensive conceptual model which recognizes forests as a land use, an ecosystem, and an economic sector. The indicators cover major forest attributes such as extent, structural components such as biomass, functions such as growth and productivity, and ecosystem services such as biodiversity and outdoor recreation. Interactions between humans and forests are represented through indicators focused on the wildland-urban interface, cost to mitigate wildfire risk, and energy produced from forest-based biomass. Selected indicators also include drought and disturbance from both wildfires and biotic agents. The forest indicators presented are an initial set that will need further refinement in coordination with other NCA indicator teams. Our effort ideally will initiate the collection of critical measurements and observations and lead to additional research on forest-climate indicators.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2012

Food security in a changing climate

By 2080 the effects of climate change—on heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and drought—could push an additional 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion. The precise impacts will, however, strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions such as local markets and food import dependence. In the near term, two factors are also changing the nature of food security: (1) rapid urbanization, with the proportion of the global population living in urban areas expanding from 13 percent in 1975 to greater than 50 percent at present, and (2) trade and domestic market liberalization since 1993, which has promoted removal of import controls, deregulation of prices, and the loss of preferential markets for many small economies. Over the last two years, the worst drought in decades has devastated eastern Africa. The resulting food-security crisis has affected roughly 13 million people and has reminded us that there is still a long way to go in addressing current climate-related risks. In the face of such profound changes and uncertainties, our approaches to food security must evolve. In this article, we describe four key elements that, in our view, will be essential to the success of efforts to address the linked challenges of food security and climate change.

Solutions Journal↗
USGS2006

Integrated strategy urged to address coastal contamination issues

Coastal bays and estuaries are well known for their intrinsic recreational and economic value, yet these ecosystems are also among our most troubled natural environments. Urban development, agriculture, and shipping are just a few examples of human activities that can cause a wide range of deleterious changes within the coastal environment. These alterations, however, occur simultaneously with cycles of natural variability such as climate change. To effectively manage coastal ecosystems, we need to be able to carefully distinguish between anthropogenic and natural causes of change.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS1995

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Arkansas

Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams in Arkansas. Regression analyses were developed in which a stream's physical and flood characteristics were related. Four sets of regional regression equations were derived to predict peak discharges with selected recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years on streams draining less than 7,770 square kilometers. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods. The region of influence method is included in this report. This method is still being improved and is to be considered only as a second alternative to the standard method of producing regional regression equations. This method estimates unique regression equations for each recurrence interval for each ungaged site. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean annual precipitation, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin and climatic characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods for this method. Certain recommendations on the use of this method are provided. A method is described for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams for urban areas in Arkansas. The method is from a nationwide U.S. Geeological Survey flood frequency report which uses urban basin characteristics combined with rural discharges to estimate urban discharges. Annual peak discharges from 204 gaging stations, with drainage areas less than 7,770 square kilometers and at least 10 years of unregulated record, were used in the analysis. These data provide the basis for this analysis and are published in the Appendix of this report as supplemental data. Large rivers such as the Red, Arkansas, White, Black, St. Francis, Mississippi, and Ouachita Rivers have floodflow characteristics that differ from those of smaller tributary streams and were treated individually. Regional regression equations are not applicable to these large rivers. The magnitude and frequency of floods along these rivers are based on specific station data. This section is provided in the Appendix and has not been updated since the last Arkansas flood frequency report (1987b), but is included at the request of the cooperator.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1998

Wet atmospheric deposition of pesticides in Minnesota, 1989-94

All of the rain samples during the growing season had detectable quantities of at least one pesticide, but most of the pesticides were only infrequently observed. The most frequently detected compounds were the herbicides alachlor, atrazine, cyanazine, and metolachlor, and in 1994, its first year of registration, acetochlor. Peak concentrations of most herbicides in rainfall occurred shortly after their application periods in the spring. Peak concentrations of most of the insecticides occurred later in the summer. The majority of the wet depositional flux of pesticides occurred between early May and October. The annual wet depositional flux of pesticides is 5 orders of magnitude less than is the "annual flux" normally applied on an agricultural field, although some of the pesticides in rain are deposited in areas far removed from agricultural fields. The annual variability in pesticide deposition can be explained by year-to-year differences in climate and pesticide use patterns. The one sampling site (Lamberton) that was in an area dominated by row crop agriculture showed a significantly greater annual flux than the other four sampling sites that were in areas of either urbanization or less intensive agricultural. Regional deposition, away from a local source, can be inferred from these four sites because they have annual pesticide fluxes that are very similar for any given year. The observation of agricultural pesticides (not registered for home and garden use) in rain and storm runoff in the urban area indicates their transport from areas of agricultural use. Urban areas may be the best locations for assessing changes in regional use and deposition of agricultural pesticides. The pesticide fluxes in the streams out of the small three watersheds was compared to the pesticide flux into the watersheds in rain. The data indicate that flux into the watersheds from the rain is generally much greater than the flux from the watersheds in the streams. Therefore, a large fraction of the pesticides deposited in rain is retained within the watersheds. For the urban area, this is on the order of 98 percent for the four most commonly observed herbicides in rain and runoff.

Minnesota↗
USGS2020

Microbiology and oxidation-reduction geochemistry of the water-table and Memphis aquifers in the Allen well field, Shelby County, Tennessee

The shallow and Memphis aquifers in Shelby County, Tennessee, are valuable natural resources that are used for domestic, public-supply, and agricultural water use. The Memphis aquifer is the primary source for public supply in West Tennessee and provides 170 to 175 million gallons of water per day for more than 900,000 people (Robinson, 2018). The shallow aquifer includes the unconfined water table, provides domestic water supplies in Shelby County, and is susceptible to contamination from urban and industrial activities, underground storage tanks, old dumps, and other sources. Both aquifers are likely to be stressed in the future by factors such as population increase, contaminant migration from historical contamination sites, industrial and agricultural activities, climate change, and other competing demands on the water resources.

Tennessee↗
USGS2013

Species of conservation concern and environmental stressors: Local regional and global effects

Species conservation has traditionally been based on individual species within the context of their requisite habitat, which is generally defined as the communities and ecosystems deemed necessary for their presence. Conservation decisions are hampered by the fact that environmental stressors that poetically threaten the persistence of species can operate at organizational levels larger than the habitat or home range of a focal species. Resource managers must therefore simultaneously consider local, regional, and/or global scale stressors for effective conservation and management of species of concern. The wide ranging effects associated with global stressors such as climate change may exceed or exacerbate the effects of local or regional stressors, they still need to understand the direct and interactive effects of global stressors and ultimately how they affect the lands they manage. Conservation of species in southern Nevada is further complication by the fact that the region includes one of the largest and fastest growing urban centers in North America. To accomplish the goal of species conservation, resource managers must identify actionable management options that mitigate the effects of local and regional stressor in the context of the effects of global stressors that are beyond their control. Species conservation is typically focused on a subset often referred to as species of conservation concern that have either demonstrated considerable decline or are naturally rare or have limited distributions. Stressors can directly and indirectly impact species in a variety of ways and through a diversity of mechanisms. Some stressors have been more intense in the past (e.g., livestock grazing) whereas other are now only emerging as new stressors (e.g., solar energy development, climate change). The primary stressors affecting southern Nevada ecosystems are listed in table 2.1 and reviewed in detail in Chapter 2. This chapter addresses Dub-goal 1.4 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy which is to sustain and enhance southern Nevada's biotic communities to preserve biodiversity wand maintain viable populations (table 1.3; Turner and others 2009). We provide numerous examples of how stressors affect the range and/or habitat of select species of conservation concern. It is important to note that the species or groups discussed in this chapter by no means represent a comprehensive treatment of all species of conservation concern listed in Table 1.2 (Chapter 1). Rather, several species were chosen as examples for each southern Nevada ecosystem type to illustrate how stressors and linkages among them can affect species of conservation concern, keeping in mind that many of the species considered here are found in more than one ecosystem type. In addition, the stressors that may impact a species in one ecosystem may not be those that affect it in another ecosystem and different species in the same ecosystem may not be affected by the same suite of stressors. Finally, at the start of each ecosystem section we summarize key resource concerns, species used as examples, key stressors, and potential synergistic effects of those stressors relative to the species example.

Nevada↗
USGS2016

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

A groundwater/surface-water model was constructed and calibrated for the Black Earth Creek watershed in south-central Wisconsin. The model was then run to simulate scenarios representing common societal concerns in the basin, focusing on maintaining a cold-water resource in an urbanizing fringe near its upper stream reaches and minimizing downstream flooding. Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, many hydrologic models simplistically simulate feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system; however, computer models can now routinely and iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems—albeit with longer model run times. In this study, preliminary calibrations of uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to form the starting point for final calibration of one transient computer simulation that iteratively couples groundwater and surface water. The computer code GSFLOW (Groundwater/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, and streams. The coupled GSFLOW model was run on a daily time step during water years 1985–2007. Early simulation times (1985–2000) were used for spin-up to make the simulation results less sensitive to initial conditions specified; the spin-up period was not included in the model calibration. Model calibration used observed heads, streamflows, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements from 2000 to 2007 for history matching. Calibration was performed by using the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model. SNTEMP was used to simulate daily stream temperature in selected stream reaches in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2005. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the years 2010 through 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the simulation period showed increases in maximum and minimum air temperature. Scenarios of future precipitation, however, did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased with time for both temperature and precipitation. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snowmelt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions, with relatively less drying expected in groundwater-fed systems. Groundwater discharge in the current upper cold-water reaches of Black Earth Creek is expected to decrease; flooding in downstream reaches may appreciably increase. The magnitude of changes in forecasted flow and associated groundwater/surface-water interaction is dependent on the General Circulation Model and emission scenario chosen. Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2008

Biological assessments of Appalachian streams based on predictive models for fish, macroinvertebrate, and diatom assemblages

We developed empirical models for fish, macroinvertebrate, and diatom assemblages to assess the biological condition of 268 streams sampled from 1993 to 2002 in 7 major river basins in the Appalachian region of the USA. These models estimate the expected taxonomic composition at each site based on observed variation in taxonomic composition at reference sites. The index, O/E, is the ratio of the number of predicted taxa that were observed (O) to that expected (E) to occur at a site and is a measure of taxonomic completeness. We compared how O/E for each assemblage varied among major landuse settings and whether impaired assemblages were associated with particular physicochemical conditions. We also examined concordance among assemblages in their response to stress. Biological, chemical, and physical data were collected following consistent protocols. We used land-cover criteria, published data, and topographic maps to classify sites by major landuse setting. Fish, macroinvertebrate, and diatom assemblages had been sampled at 73, 108, and 52, respectively, of the least disturbed sites used to establish reference conditions. The models accounted for a substantial portion of the natural variation in taxonomic composition across sites that was associated with biogeographic, climatic, and basin-scale factors and generally were unbiased across the range of environmental gradients observed in the region. Assessments at nonreference sites showed that impairment of fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages was most strongly associated with agriculture and urban land uses, whereas impairment of diatom assemblages was most strongly associated with mining in the basin. Concordance in assessments among assemblages was not strong. Assessments based on 2 assemblages differed in 28 to 57% of cases, and assessments were never concordant for cases where all 3 assemblages were sampled. Furthermore, only 1/2 of these cases would have been assessed as ecologically impaired had only 1 assemblage been sampled. Differences between observed and predicted frequencies of occurrence for individual taxa were generally consistent with known tolerances to environmental stressors and might aid in identifying causes of biological impairment. ?? 2008 by The North American Benthological Society.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗
USGS2016

Spatial and temporal patterns of dissolved organic matter quantity and quality in the Mississippi River Basin, 1997–2013

Recent studies have found insignificant or decreasing trends in time-series dissolved organic carbon (DOC) datasets, questioning the assumption that long-term DOC concentrations in surface waters are increasing in response to anthropogenic forcing, including climate change, land use, and atmospheric acid deposition. We used the weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS) model to estimate annual flow-normalized concentrations and fluxes to determine if changes in DOC quantity and quality signal anthropogenic forcing at 10 locations in the Mississippi River Basin. Despite increases in agriculture and urban development throughout the basin, net increases in DOC concentration and flux were significant at only 3 of 10 sites from 1997 to 2013 and ranged between −3.5% to +18% and −0.1 to 19%, respectively. Positive shifts in DOC quality, characterized by increasing specific ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nm, ranged between +8% and +45%, but only occurred at one of the sites with significant DOC quantity increases. Basinwide reductions in atmospheric sulfate deposition did not result in large increases in DOC either, likely because of the high buffering capacity of the soil. Hydroclimatic factors including annual discharge, precipitation, and temperature did not significantly change during the 17-year timespan of this study, which contrasts with results from previous studies showing significant increases in precipitation and discharge over a century time scale. Our study also contrasts with those from smaller catchments, which have shown stronger DOC responses to climate, land use, and acidic deposition. This temporal and spatial analysis indicated that there was a potential change in DOC sources in the Mississippi River Basin between 1997 and 2013. However, the overall magnitude of DOC trends was not large, and the pattern in quantity and quality increases for the 10 study sites was not consistent throughout the basin.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2016

A cellular automata downscaling based 1 km global land use datasets (2010–2100)

Global climate and environmental change studies require detailed land-use and land-cover(LULC) information about the past, present, and future. In this paper, we discuss a methodology for downscaling coarse-resolution (i.e., half-degree) future land use scenarios to finer (i.e., 1 km) resolutions at the global scale using a grid-based spatially explicit cellular automata (CA) model. We account for spatial heterogeneity from topography, climate, soils, and socioeconomic variables. The model uses a global 30 m land cover map (2010) as the base input, a variety of biogeographic and socioeconomic variables, and an empirical analysis to downscale coarse-resolution land use information (specifically urban, crop and pasture). The output of this model offers the most current and finest-scale future LULC dynamics from 2010 to 2100 (with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) at a 1 km resolution within a globally consistent framework. The data are freely available for download, and will enable researchers to study the impacts of LULC change at the local scale.

Science Bulletin↗
USGS2007

South Platte River Basin - Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming

The South Platte River Basin was one of 20 study units selected in 1991 for investigation under the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. One of the initial tasks undertaken by the study unit team was to review the environmental setting of the basin and assemble ancillary data on natural and anthropogenic factors in the basin. The physical, chemical, and biological quality of the water in the South Platte River Basin is explicitly tied to its environmental setting. The resulting water quality is the product of the natural conditions and human factors that make up the environmental setting of the basin. This description of the environmental setting of the South Platte River Basin and its implications to the water quality will help guide the design of the South Platte NAWQA study. Natural conditions such as physiography, climate, geology, and soils affect the ambient water quality while anthropogenic factors such as water use, population, land use and water-management practices can have a pronounced effect on water quality in the basin. The relative effects of mining, urban, and agricultural land- and water-uses on water-quality constituents are not well understood. The interrelation of the surface-water and ground-water systems and the chemical and biological processes that affect the transport of constituents needs to be addressed. Interactions between biological communities and the water resources also should be considered. The NAWQA program and the South Platte River Basin study will provide information to minimize existing knowledge gaps, so that we may better understand the effect these natural conditions and human factors have on the water-quality conditions in the basin, now and in the future.

Water Resources Bulletin↗
USGS2018

Thermal erosion of a permafrost coastline: Improving process-based models using time-lapse photography

Coastal erosion rates locally exceeding 30 m y-1 have been documented along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coastline, and a number of studies suggest that these erosion rates have accelerated as a result of climate change. However, a lack of direct observational evidence has limited our progress in quantifying the specific processes that connect climate change to coastal erosion rates in the Arctic. In particular, while longer ice-free periods are likely to lead to both warmer surface waters and longer fetch, the relative roles of thermal and mechanical (wave) erosion in driving coastal retreat have not been comprehensively quantified. We focus on a permafrost coastline in the northern National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A), where coastal erosion rates have averaged 10-15 m y-1 over two years of direct monitoring. We take advantage of these extraordinary rates of coastal erosion to observe and quantify coastal erosion directly via time-lapse photography in combination with meteorological observations. Our observations indicate that the erosion of these bluffs is largely thermally driven, but that surface winds play a crucial role in exposing the frozen bluffs to the radiatively warmed seawater that drives melting of interstitial ice. To first order, erosion in this setting can be modeled using formulations developed to describe iceberg deterioration in the open ocean. These simple models provide a conceptual framework for evaluating how climate-induced changes in thermal and wave energy might influence future erosion rates in this setting.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research↗