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Volcano Geodesy: Recent developments and future challenges

Ascent of magma through Earth's crust is normally associated with, among other effects, ground deformation and gravity changes. Geodesy is thus a valuable tool for monitoring and hazards assessment during volcanic unrest, and it provides valuable data for exploring the geometry and volume of magma plumbing systems. Recent decades have seen an explosion in the quality and quantity of volcano geodetic data. New datasets (some made possible by regional and global scientific initiatives), as well as new analysis methods and modeling practices, have resulted in important changes to our understanding of the geodetic characteristics of active volcanism and magmatic processes, from the scale of individual eruptive vents to global compilations of volcano deformation. Here, we describe some of the recent developments in volcano geodesy, both in terms of data and interpretive tools, and discuss the role of international initiatives in meeting future challenges for the field.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Correlates of nest-defense behavior of common terns

Nest-defense behavior was studied at seven Common Tern (Sterna hirundo) colonies in southern coastal New Jersey during June and July 1981. Data were collected weekly on numbers of adults, nests, eggs, and young in relation to the frequency and intensity of dive attacks on a human intruder by nesting terns. I explored the relationships between attack behavior and colony size/density, seasonality, and brood survival. The results provide little support for social facilitation since neither colony size (range 30-250 nests) nor density was related to mean attack frequency; however, in larger colonies, fewer birds participated in dive attacks. Although the intensity of attacks was strongly seasonal, patterns were very different among colonies and peak attack rates did not always coincide with peak hatching periods. Defense levels declined late in the season in most colonies regardless of whether brood survival was high or low. Colonies with individuals that attacked early in the season had higher overall nesting success than in colonies where individuals showed little early season aggression.

Journal of Field Ornithology

Exploring the erodibility of sediments and harmful algal blooms in the Gulf of Maine

Investigators at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are cooperating with scientists at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) to investigate harmful algal blooms along the New England coast in the Gulf of Maine. These blooms are caused by cysts of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense that overwinter in the bottom sediments and germinate in spring. Depending on conditions such as temperature, light, nutrient levels, and currents, these single-celled organismscan create a bloom along the coast, called ‘red tides.’Shellfish that have ingested these cells in sufficient concentration can become toxic to humans and require that the shellfisheries be closed. After the spring bloom, the organisms form cysts that sink to the sea floor and are sequestered in the bottom sediments over the winter.

EcoSystem Indicator Partnership Journal

Evolution of Mars’ Northern Polar Seasonal CO 2 deposits: variations in surface brightness and bulk density

Small scale variations of seasonal ice are explored at different geomorphic units on the Northern Polar Seasonal Cap (NPSC). We use seasonal rock shadow measurements, combined with visible and thermal observations, to calculate density over time. The coupling of volume density and albedo allows us to determine the microphysical state of the seasonal CO 2 ice. We find two distinct endmembers across the NPSC: 1) Snow deposits may anneal to form an overlying slab layer that fractures. These low density deposits maintain relatively constant densities over springtime. 2) Porous slab deposits likely anneal rapidly in early spring and fracture in late spring. These high density deposits dramatically increase in density over time. The endmembers appear to be correlated with latitude.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets

Spatial demographic models to inform conservation planning of golden eagles in renewable energy landscapes

Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land use and anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated into a spatial demographic model to investigate effects on population dynamics of Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). Our study focused on a population of Golden Eagles exposed to risks associated with rapid increases in renewable energy development in southern California, U.S.A. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model that integrated empirical data on demography of Golden Eagles with spatial data on the arrangement of nesting habitats, prey resources, and planned renewable energy development sites. Our model permitted simulated eagles of different stage-classes to disperse, establish home ranges, acquire prey resources, prospect for breeding sites, and reproduce. The distribution of nesting habitats, prey resources, and threats within each individual's home range influenced movement, reproduction, and survival. We used our model to explore potential effects of alternative disturbance scenarios, and proposed conservation strategies, on the future distribution and abundance of Golden Eagles in the study region. Results from our simulations suggest that probable increases in mortality associated with renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., collisions with wind turbines and vehicles, electrocution on power poles) could have negative consequences for population trajectories, but that site-specific conservation actions could reduce the magnitude of negative effects. Our study demonstrates the use of a flexible and expandable modeling framework to incorporate spatially dependent processes when determining relative effects of proposed management options to Golden Eagles and their habitats.

California

Pattern drilling exploration: Optimum pattern types and hole spacings when searching for elliptical shaped targets

In this study the selection of the optimum type of drilling pattern to be used when exploring for elliptical shaped targets is examined. The rhombic pattern is optimal when the targets are known to have a preferred orientation. Situations can also be found where a rectangular pattern is as efficient as the rhombic pattern. A triangular or square drilling pattern should be used when the orientations of the targets are unknown. The way in which the optimum hole spacing varies as a function of (1) the cost of drilling, (2) the value of the targets, (3) the shape of the targets, (4) the target occurrence probabilities was determined for several examples. Bayes' rule was used to show how target occurrence probabilities can be revised within a multistage pattern drilling scheme. ?? 1979 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe

Examination of the interaction between age-specific predation and chronic disease in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Predators may create healthier prey populations by selectively removing diseased individuals. Predators typically prefer some ages of prey over others, which may, or may not, align with those prey ages that are most likely to be diseased. The interaction of age-specific infection and predation has not been previously explored and likely has sizable effects on disease dynamics. We hypothesize that predator cleansing effects will be greater when the disease and predation occur in the same prey age groups. We examine the predator cleansing effect using a model where both vulnerability to predators and pathogen prevalence vary with age. We tailor this model to chronic wasting disease (CWD) in mule deer and elk populations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, with empirical data from Yellowstone grey wolves and cougars. Model results suggest that under moderate, yet realistic, predation pressure from cougars and wolves independently, predators may decrease CWD outbreak size substantially and delay the accumulation of symptomatic deer and elk. The magnitude of this effect is driven by the ability of predators to selectively remove late-stage CWD infections that are likely the most responsible for transmission, but this may not be the age class they typically select. Thus, predators that select for infected young adults over uninfected juveniles have a stronger cleansing effect, and these effects are strengthened when transmission rates increase with increasing prey morbidity. There are also trade-offs from a management perspective—that is, increasing predator kill rates can result in opposing forces on prey abundance and CWD prevalence. Our modelling exploration shows that predators have the potential to reduce prevalence in prey populations when prey age and disease severity are considered, yet the strength of this effect is influenced by predators' selection for demography or body condition. Current CWD management focuses on increasing cervid hunting as the primary management tool, and our results suggest predators may also be a useful tool under certain conditions, but not necessarily without additional impacts on host abundance and demography. Protected areas with predator populations will play a large role in informing the debate over predator impacts on disease.

Wyoming

Optimal swim speeds for traversing velocity barriers: An analysis of volitional high-speed swimming behavior of migratory fishes

Migrating fish traversing velocity barriers are often forced to swim at speeds greater than their maximum sustained speed (Ums). Failure to select an appropriate swim speed under these conditions can prevent fish from successfully negotiating otherwise passable barriers. I propose a new model of a distance-maximizing strategy for fishes traversing velocity barriers, derived from the relationships between swim speed and fatigue time in both prolonged and sprint modes. The model predicts that fish will maximize traversed distance by swimming at a constant groundspeed against a range of flow velocities, and this groundspeed is equal to the negative inverse of the slope of the swim speed-fatigue time relationship for each mode. At a predictable flow velocity, they should switch from the optimal groundspeed for prolonged mode to that for sprint mode. Data from six migratory fish species (anadromous clupeids: American shad Alosa sapidissima, alewife A. pseudoharengus and blueback herring A. aestivalis; amphidromous: striped bass Morone saxatilis; and potomodromous species: walleye (previously known as Stizostedion vitrium) and white sucker Catostomus commersonii) were used to explore the ability of fish to approximate the predicted distance-maximizing behaviors, as well as the consequences of deviating from the optima. Fish volitionally sprinted up an open-channel flume against fixed flow velocities of 1.5-4.5 m s-1, providing data on swim speeds and fatigue times, as well as their groundspeeds. Only anadromous clupeids selected the appropriate distance-maximizing groundspeed at both prolonged and sprint modes. The other three species maintained groundspeeds appropriate to the prolonged mode, even when they should have switched to the sprint optima. Because of this, these species failed to maximize distance of ascent. The observed behavioral variability has important implications both for distributional limits and fishway design.

Journal of Experimental Biology

New insight into California’s drought through open data

Historically unprecedented drought in California has brought water issues to the forefront of the nation’s attention. Crucial investigations that concern water policy, management, and research, in turn, require extensive information about the quality and quantity of California’s water. Unfortunately, key sources of pertinent data are unevenly distributed and frequently hard to find. Thankfully, the vital importance of integrating water data across federal, state, and tribal, academic, and private entities, has recently been recognized and addressed through federal initiatives such as the Climate Data Initiative of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan and the Advisory Committee on Water Information’s Open Water Data Initiative . Here, we demonstrate an application of integrated open water data, visualized and made available online using open source software, for the purpose of exploring the impact of the current California drought. Our collaborative approach and technical tools enabled a rapid, distributed development process. Many positive outcomes have resulted: the application received recognition within and outside of the Federal Government, inspired others to visualize open water data, spurred new collaborations for our group, and strengthened the collaborative relationships within the team of developers. In this article, we describe the technical tools and collaborative process that enabled the success of the application.

BayGEO Journal

Seasonal circulation over the Catalan inner-shelf (northwest Mediterranean Sea)

This study characterizes the seasonal cycle of the Catalan inner-shelf circulation using observations and complementary numerical results. The relation between seasonal circulation and forcing mechanisms is explored through the depth-averaged momentum balance, for the period between May 2010 and April 2011, when velocity observations were partially available. The monthly-mean along-shelf flow is mainly controlled by the along-shelf pressure gradient and by surface and bottom stresses. During summer, fall, and winter, the along-shelf momentum balance is dominated by the barotropic pressure gradient and local winds. During spring, both wind stress and pressure gradient act in the same direction and are compensated by bottom stress. In the cross-shelf direction the dominant forces are in geostrophic balance, consistent with dynamic altimetry data.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Mars reconnaissance orbiter's high resolution imaging science experiment (HiRISE)

The HiRISE camera features a 0.5 m diameter primary mirror, 12 m effective focal length, and a focal plane system that can acquire images containing up to 28 Gb (gigabits) of data in as little as 6 seconds. HiRISE will provide detailed images (0.25 to 1.3 m/pixel) covering ∼1% of the Martian surface during the 2‐year Primary Science Phase (PSP) beginning November 2006. Most images will include color data covering 20% of the potential field of view. A top priority is to acquire ∼1000 stereo pairs and apply precision geometric corrections to enable topographic measurements to better than 25 cm vertical precision. We expect to return more than 12 Tb of HiRISE data during the 2‐year PSP, and use pixel binning, conversion from 14 to 8 bit values, and a lossless compression system to increase coverage. HiRISE images are acquired via 14 CCD detectors, each with 2 output channels, and with multiple choices for pixel binning and number of Time Delay and Integration lines. HiRISE will support Mars exploration by locating and characterizing past, present, and future landing sites, unsuccessful landing sites, and past and potentially future rover traverses. We will investigate cratering, volcanism, tectonism, hydrology, sedimentary processes, stratigraphy, aeolian processes, mass wasting, landscape evolution, seasonal processes, climate change, spectrophotometry, glacial and periglacial processes, polar geology, and regolith properties. An Internet Web site (HiWeb) will enable anyone in the world to suggest HiRISE targets on Mars and to easily locate, view, and download HiRISE data products.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets

Examining the contradiction in 'sustainable urban growth': an example of groundwater sustainability

The environmental planning literature proposes a set of 'best management practices' for urban development that assumes improvement in environmental quality as a result of specific urban patterns. These best management practices, however, often do not recognise finite biophysical limits and social impacts that urban patterns alone cannot overcome. To shed light on this debate, we explore the effects of different degrees of urban clustering on groundwater levels using a coupled land-use change and groundwater-flow model. Our simulations show that specific urban forms only slow down the impact on groundwater. As population increases, the pattern in which it is accommodated ceases to matter, and widespread depletion ensues. These results are predictable, yet current planning practice tends to take growth for granted and is reluctant to envision either no-growth scenarios or the prospect of depletion. We propose to use simulations such as those presented here to aid in policy discussions that allow decision makers to question the assumption of sustainable growth and suggest alternative forms of development.

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management

Applying computer simulation models as learning tools in fishery management

Computer models can be powerful tools for addressing many problems in fishery management, but uncertainty about how to apply models and how they should perform can lead to a cautious approach to modeling. Within this approach, we expect models to make quantitative predictions but only after all model inputs have been estimated from empirical data and after the model has been tested for agreement with an independent data set. I review the limitations to this approach and show how models can be more useful as tools for organizing data and concepts, learning about the system to be managed, and exploring management options. Fishery management requires deciding what actions to pursue to meet management objectives. Models do not make decisions for us but can provide valuable input to the decision‐making process. When empirical data are lacking. preliminary modeling with parameters derived from other sources can help determine priorities for data collection. When evaluating models for management applications, we should attempt to define the conditions under which the model is a useful, analytical tool (its domain of applicability) and should focus on the decisions made using modeling results, rather than on quantitative model predictions. I describe an example of modeling used as a learning tool for the yellow perch Perca flavescens fishery in Green Bay, Lake Michigan.

Wisconsin

A novel approach for next generation water use mapping using Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite data

Evapotranspiration (ET) is needed in a range of applications in hydrology, climatology, ecology, and agriculture. Remote sensing-based estimation is the only viable and economical method for ET estimation over large areas. The current Landsat satellites provide images every 16 days limiting the ability to capture biophysical changes affecting ET. Thus, we explored the potential integration of Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 data for estimating ET using a surface energy balance model. The results indicate the proposed Landsat-Sentinel data fusion approach substantially reduced relative errors from 48% to 10% on area-wide and from 49% to 17% on pixel-wide compared to linear interpolation between two Landsat images. The proposed approach had a better agreement with expected actual ET maps across high-vegetation conditions than in low-vegetation conditions. The finer temporal resolution and better accuracy of ET maps based on Landsat-Sentinel integration is of great importance in managing limited water resources.

Arizona, California

Seismic hazard in the Istanbul metropolitan area: A preliminary re-evaluation

In 1999, two destructive earthquakes (M7.4 Kocaeli and M7.2 Duzce) occurred in the north west of Turkey and resulted in major stress-drops on the western segment of the North Anatolian Fault system where it continues under the Marmara Sea. These undersea fault segments were recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped to reshape the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on collected new information, seismic hazard of the Marmara region, particularly Istanbul Metropolitan Area and its vicinity, were re-examined using a probabilistic approach. Two seismic source and alternate recurrence models combined with various indigenous and foreign attenuation relationships were adapted within a logic tree formulation to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. The hazard maps show the peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0 s. These acceleration levels were computed for 2 and 10 % probabilities of transcendence in 50 years.

Journal of Earthquake Engineering

Sound and sturgeon: Bioacoustics and anthropogenic sound

Sturgeons are basal bony fishes, most species of which are considered threatened and/or endangered. Like all fishes, sturgeons use hearing to learn about their environment and perhaps communicate with conspecifics, as in mating. Thus, anything that impacts the ability of sturgeon to hear biologically important sounds could impact fitness and survival of individuals and populations. There is growing concern that the sounds produced by human activities (anthropogenic sound), such as from shipping, commercial barge navigation on rivers, offshore windfarms, and oil and gas exploration, could impact hearing by aquatic organisms. Thus, it is critical to understand how sturgeon hear, what they hear, and how they use sound. Such data are needed to set regulatory criteria for anthropogenic sound to protect these animals. However, very little is known about sturgeon behavioral responses to sound and their use of sound. To help understand the issues related to sturgeon and anthropogenic sound, this review first examines what is known about sturgeon bioacoustics. It then considers the potential effects of anthropogenic sound on sturgeon and, finally identifies areas of research that could substantially improve knowledge of sturgeon bioacoustics and effects of anthropogenic sound. Filling these gaps will help regulators establish appropriate protection for sturgeon.

The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America

Seasonal changes in ruffe abundance in two Lake Superior tributaries: Implications for control

Since the discovery of ruffe Gymnocephalus cernuus in the St. Louis River in 1987, state, federal, and tribal management agencies have sought to slow its spread to areas outside the western end of Lake Superior. A debate over control strategies highlighted uncertainties about seasonal movements of this species between Lake Superior and its western tributaries. One strategy called for eliminating reproducing populations in tributaries on the periphery of the range using chemical piscicides. That strategy rested on the assumption that ruffe congregate in tributaries during a predictable time of year. This study was designed to explore that assumption. Ruffe collections from the Iron and Sand rivers during 1995 indicated that ruffe were present in those tributaries throughout the summer but that abundance was not highest at the predicted time: June 19–22. Maximum abundance in the Iron River did not coincide with that in the Sand River and did not occur during June 19–22 in either river. The timing of peak abundance was not clearly related to changes in water temperature. Ruffe were present in substantial numbers in Lake Superior during June 19–22 when aggregations in the tributaries had been predicted. These findings do not support the assumption of the chemical control strategy.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Inter-species variation in yolk steroid levels and a cowbird-host comparison

We examined variability in yolk hormone levels among songbird species and the role of yolk steroids as a mechanism for enhanced exploitation of hosts by the parasitic Brown-headed Cowbird Molothrus ater. Within-clutch variation in yolk steroids has been found in several avian species in single species studies, but few comparisons have been made among species. We found a large range of differences in yolk testosterone among the seven passerine species examined, with significant differences between those at the high end (Song Sparrow Melospiza melodia , Red-winged Blackbird Agelaius phoeniceus, and House Sparrow, Passer domesticus ) and those at the low end (Eastern Phoebe Sayornis phoebe, and House Finch Carpodacus mexicanus ). We also found that the testosterone level in cowbird eggs was intermediate in relation to host species levels and was significantly lower than that in three common cowbird hosts (Song Sparrow, Red-winged Blackbird, and House Sparrow), but not significantly different from three others. Geographical comparisons of yolk testosterone levels in all cowbird subspecies and populations from several regions showed no significant differences, though a trend that deserves further exploration was the pattern of lowest level in the ancestral population of cowbirds in the central prairies and of highest level in the northwestern population where range invasion occurred approximately 40 years ago. The levels of 17 betaestradiol were similar in the seven songbird species examined, which is consistent with current hypotheses that this hormone plays a role in embryonic sexual differentiation. Further investigation is needed to determine whether the large differences observed among species in absolute level of yolk testosterone are the relevant focal point or whether target tissue sensitivity differences mediate the effects of this yolk steroid, particularly between parasitic and non-parasitic species.

Journal of Avian Biology