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HydroClimATe: hydrologic and climatic analysis toolkit

The potential consequences of climate variability and climate change have been identified as major issues for the sustainability and availability of the worldwide water resources. Unlike global climate change, climate variability represents deviations from the long-term state of the climate over periods of a few years to several decades. Currently, rich hydrologic time-series data are available, but the combination of data preparation and statistical methods developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Groundwater Resources Program is relatively unavailable to hydrologists and engineers who could benefit from estimates of climate variability and its effects on periodic recharge and water-resource availability. This report documents HydroClimATe, a computer program for assessing the relations between variable climatic and hydrologic time-series data. HydroClimATe was developed for a Windows operating system. The software includes statistical tools for (1) time-series preprocessing, (2) spectral analysis, (3) spatial and temporal analysis, (4) correlation analysis, and (5) projections. The time-series preprocessing tools include spline fitting, standardization using a normal or gamma distribution, and transformation by a cumulative departure. The spectral analysis tools include discrete Fourier transform, maximum entropy method, and singular spectrum analysis. The spatial and temporal analysis tool is empirical orthogonal function analysis. The correlation analysis tools are linear regression and lag correlation. The projection tools include autoregressive time-series modeling and generation of many realizations. These tools are demonstrated in four examples that use stream-flow discharge data, groundwater-level records, gridded time series of precipitation data, and the Multivariate ENSO Index.

Techniques and Methods↗

Construction of a groundwater-flow model for the Big Sioux Aquifer using airborne electromagnetic methods, Sioux Falls, South Dakota

The city of Sioux Falls is the fastest growing community in South Dakota. In response to this continued growth and planning for future development, Sioux Falls requires a sustainable supply of municipal water. Planning and managing sustainable groundwater supplies requires a thorough understanding of local groundwater resources. The Big Sioux aquifer consists of glacial outwash sands and gravels and is hydraulically connected to the Big Sioux River, which provided about 90 percent of the city’s source-water production in 2015. Managing sustainable groundwater supplies also requires an understanding of groundwater availability. An effective mechanism to inform water management decisions is the development and utilization of a groundwater-flow model. A groundwater-flow model provides a quantitative framework for synthesizing field information and conceptualizing hydrogeologic processes. These groundwater-flow models can support decision making processes by mapping and characterizing the aquifer. Accordingly, the city of Sioux Falls partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey to construct a groundwater-flow model. Model inputs will include data from advanced geophysical techniques, specifically airborne electromagnetic methods.

South Dakota↗

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.

Conservation Biology↗

MODFLOW-NWT, a Newton formulation for MODFLOW-2005

This report documents a Newton formulation of MODFLOW-2005, called MODFLOW-NWT. MODFLOW-NWT is a standalone program that is intended for solving problems involving drying and rewetting nonlinearities of the unconfined groundwater-flow equation. MODFLOW-NWT must be used with the Upstream-Weighting (UPW) Package for calculating intercell conductances in a different manner than is done in the Block-Centered Flow (BCF), Layer Property Flow (LPF), or Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow (HUF; Anderman and Hill, 2000) Packages. The UPW Package treats nonlinearities of cell drying and rewetting by use of a continuous function of groundwater head, rather than the discrete approach of drying and rewetting that is used by the BCF, LPF, and HUF Packages. This further enables application of the Newton formulation for unconfined groundwater-flow problems because conductance derivatives required by the Newton method are smooth over the full range of head for a model cell. The NWT linearization approach generates an asymmetric matrix, which is different from the standard MODFLOW formulation that generates a symmetric matrix. Because all linear solvers presently available for use with MODFLOW-2005 solve only symmetric matrices, MODFLOW-NWT includes two previously developed asymmetric matrix-solver options. The matrix-solver options include a generalized-minimum-residual (GMRES) Solver and an Orthomin / stabilized conjugate-gradient (CGSTAB) Solver. The GMRES Solver is documented in a previously published report, such that only a brief description and input instructions are provided in this report. However, the CGSTAB Solver (called X MD) is documented in this report. Flow-property input for the UPW Package is designed based on the LPF Package and material-property input is identical to that for the LPF Package except that the rewetting and vertical-conductance correction options of the LPF Package are not available with the UPW Package. Input files constructed for the LPF Package can be used with slight modification as input for the UPW Package. This report presents the theory and methods used by MODFLOW-NWT, including the UPW Package. Additionally, this report provides comparisons of the new methodology to analytical solutions of groundwater flow and to standard MODFLOW-2005 results by use of an unconfined aquifer MODFLOW example problem. The standard MODFLOW-2005 simulation uses the LPF Package with the wet/dry option active. A new example problem also is presented to demonstrate MODFLOW-NWT's ability to provide a solution for a difficult unconfined groundwater-flow problem.

Techniques and Methods↗

Numerical evaluation of static-chamber measurements of soil-atmospheric gas exchange--Identification of physical processes

The exchange of gases between soil and atmosphere is an important process that affects atmospheric chemistry and therefore climate. The static-chamber method is the most commonly used technique for estimating the rate of that exchange. We examined the method under hypothetical field conditions where diffusion was the only mechanism for gas transport and the atmosphere outside the chamber was maintained at a fixed concentration. Analytical and numerical solutions to the soil gas diffusion equation in one and three dimensions demonstrated that gas flux density to a static chamber deployed on the soil surface was less in magnitude than the ambient exchange rate in the absence of the chamber. This discrepancy, which increased with chamber deployment time and air-filled porosity of soil, is attributed to two physical factors: distortion of the soil gas concentration gradient (the magnitude was decreased in the vertical component and increased in the radial component) and the slow transport rate of diffusion relative to mixing within the chamber. Instantaneous flux density to a chamber decreased continuously with time; steepest decreases occurred so quickly following deployment and in response to such slight changes in mean chamber headspace concentration that they would likely go undetected by most field procedures. Adverse influences of these factors were reduced by mixing the chamber headspace, minimizing deployment time, maximizing the height and radius of the chamber, and pushing the rim of the chamber into the soil. Nonlinear models were superior to a linear regression model for estimating flux densities from mean headspace concentrations, suggesting that linearity of headspace concentration with time was not necessarily a good indicator of measurement accuracy.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗

Multi-taxa database data dictionary

The conservation of biological resources relies on the successful management of ecological and physiological research data. The Western Ecological Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey is working with researchers, land managers, and decision makers from non-government organizations and city, county, state, and federal resource agencies to develop data management methods. Access to the most current and applicable research data available in making sound decisions to conserve species diversity is foundational. We sought to accomplish several goals in developing the data management strategy used in the Multi-Taxa database. Data persistence and availability are primary goals of well-developed databases. By documenting and sharing the structure and definitions of Multi-Taxa database, we hope to further the successful management of these crucial data.

Techniques and Methods↗

Field sampling guidelines for developing and verifying satellite remote sensing chlorophyll a concentration and fluorescence models in inland waters

Harmful algal blooms are increasing in frequency in inland waters across the United States, resulting in a need to monitor phytoplankton bloom events to track ecosystem health and productivity. Remote sensing of chlorophyll a values offers a cost-effective and powerful method for early detection and characterization of bloom events and serves as an overall indicator of water quality and trophic state, with regular, repeated sampling of landscape-wide, high spatial resolution measurements. Field measurements are necessary for developing and verifying chlorophyll a retrieval models. For model verification, chlorophyll a concentration or fluorescence and light attenuation measurements are needed; for model development, turbidity and colored dissolved organic matter concentration measurements are additionally needed; and for model development and verification, radiometric measurements, taxonomic identification of phytoplankton, inherent optical properties, and cyanotoxin concentration are further measurements that can provide context. This report outlines detailed methods and priority considerations for collecting high-quality field data in inland waters (defined as rivers, lakes, reservoirs, estuaries, streams, and wetlands). The described methods include best practices for collecting and preparing discretely collected water samples and for calibration, maintenance, and quality assurance and quality control of field sensors. Whereas the priorities will vary between applications, some general guidelines are to collect field samples (1) as close in time to a satellite overpass as possible, (2) from representative areas of the waterbody to capture the range of spatial variability, and (3) near the surface to match remote sensing reflectance data.

Techniques and Methods↗

Continuous-flow centrifugation to collect suspended sediment for chemical analysis

Recent advances in suspended-sediment monitoring tools and surrogate technologies have greatly improved the ability to quantify suspended-sediment concentrations and to estimate daily, seasonal, and annual suspended-sediment fluxes from rivers to coastal waters. However, little is known about the chemical composition of suspended sediment, and how it may vary spatially between water bodies and temporally within a single system owing to climate, seasonality, land use, and other natural and anthropogenic drivers. Many water-quality contaminants, such as organic and inorganic chemicals, nutrients, and pathogens, preferentially partition in sediment rather than water. Suspended sediment-bound chemical concentrations may be undetected during analysis of unfiltered water samples, owing to small water sample volumes and analytical limitations. Quantification of suspended sediment‑bound chemical concentrations is needed to improve estimates of total chemical concentrations, chemical fluxes, and exposure levels of aquatic organisms and humans in receiving environments. Despite these needs, few studies or monitoring programs measure the chemical composition of suspended sediment, largely owing to the difficulty in consistently obtaining samples of sufficient quality and quantity for laboratory analysis. A field protocol is described here utilizing continuous‑flow centrifugation for the collection of suspended sediment for chemical analysis. The centrifuge used for development of this method is small, lightweight, and portable for the field applications described in this protocol. Project scoping considerations, deployment of equipment and system layout options, and results from various field and laboratory quality control experiments are described. The testing confirmed the applicability of the protocol for the determination of many inorganic and organic chemicals sorbed on suspended sediment, including metals, pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and polychlorinated biphenyls. The particle-size distribution of the captured sediment changes to a more fine-grained sample during centrifugation, and the necessity to account for this change when extrapolating chemical concentrations on the centrifuged sediment sample to the environmental water system is discussed. The data produced using this method will help eliminate a data gap of suspended sediment-bound chemical concentrations, and will support management decisions, such as chemical source-control efforts or in-stream restoration activities. When coupled with streamflow and sediment flux data, it will improve estimates of riverine chemical fluxes, and will aid in assessing the importance and impacts of suspended sediment-bound chemicals to downstream freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems.

Techniques and Methods↗

Theoretical considerations and a simple method for measuring alkalinity and acidity in low-pH waters by gran titration

Titrations for alkalinity and acidity using the technique described by Gran (1952, Determination of the equivalence point in potentiometric titrations, Part II: The Analyst, v. 77, p. 661-671) have been employed in the analysis of low-pH natural waters. This report includes a synopsis of the theory and calculations associated with Gran's technique and presents a simple and inexpensive method for performing alkalinity and acidity determinations. However, potential sources of error introduced by the chemical character of some waters may limit the utility of Gran's technique. Therefore, the cost- and time-efficient method for performing alkalinity and acidity determinations described in this report is useful for exploring the suitability of Gran's technique in studies of water chemistry.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Landsat surface reflectance quality assurance extraction (version 1.7)

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Remote Sensing Program is developing an operational capability to produce Climate Data Records (CDRs) and Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) from the Landsat Archive to support a wide variety of science and resource management activities from regional to global scale. The USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center is charged with prototyping systems and software to generate these high-level data products. Various USGS Geographic Science Centers are charged with particular ECV algorithm development and (or) selection as well as the evaluation and application demonstration of various USGS CDRs and ECVs. Because it is a foundation for many other ECVs, the first CDR in development is the Landsat Surface Reflectance Product (LSRP). The LSRP incorporates data quality information in a bit-packed structure that is not readily accessible without postprocessing services performed by the user. This document describes two general methods of LSRP quality-data extraction for use in image processing systems. Helpful hints for the installation and use of software originally developed for manipulation of Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) produced through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System are first provided for users who wish to extract quality data into separate HDF files. Next, steps follow to incorporate these extracted data into an image processing system. Finally, an alternative example is illustrated in which the data are extracted within a particular image processing system.

Techniques and Methods↗

Methods of analysis: Determination of pyrethroid insecticides in water and sediment using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry

A method for the determination of 14 pyrethroid insecticides in environmental water and sediment samples is described. The method was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in response to increasing concern over the effects of pyrethroids on aquatic organisms. The pyrethroids included in this method are ones that are applied to many agricultural and urban areas. Filtered water samples are extracted for pyrethroids using solid-phase extraction (SPE) with no additional cleanup steps. Sediment and soil samples are extracted using a microwave-assisted extraction system, and the pyrethroids of interest are separated from co-extracted matrix interferences by passing the extracts through stacked graphitized carbon and alumina SPE cartridges, along with the use of high-performance liquid chromatography and gel-permeation chromatography (HPLC/GPC). Quantification of the pyrethroids from the extracted water and sediment samples is done using gas chromatography with mass spectrometry (GC/MS) or gas chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry (GC/MS/MS). Recoveries in test water samples fortified at 10 ng/L ranged from 83 to 107 percent, and recoveries in test sediment samples fortified at 10 ug/kg ranged from 82 to 101 percent; relative standard deviations ranged from 5 to 9 percent in the water samples and 3 to 9 percent in the sediment samples. Method detection limits (MDLs), calculated using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency procedures (40 CFR 136, Appendix B), in water ranged from 2.0 to 6.0 ng/L using GC/MS and 0.5 to 1.0 ng/L using GC/MS/MS. For sediment, the MDLs ranged from 1.0 to 2.6 ug/kg dry weight using GC/MS and 0.2 to 0.5 ug/kg dry weight using GC/MS/MS. The matrix-spike recoveries for each compound, when averaged for 12 environmental water samples, ranged from 84 to 96 percent, and when averaged for 27 environmental sediment samples, ranged from 88 to 100 percent.

Techniques and Methods↗

A new approach for representing agent-environment feedbacks: Coupled agent-based and state-and-transition simulation models

Context Agent-based models (ABMs) and state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) have proven useful for understanding processes underlying social-ecological systems and evaluating practical questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. ABMs can simulate a variety of agents (autonomous units, such as wildlife or people); agent characteristics, decision-making, adaptive behavior, and mobility; and agent-environment interactions. STSMs are flexible and intuitive stochastic landscape models that can track scenarios and integrate diverse data. Both can be run spatially and track metrics of management success. Objectives Due to the complementarity of these approaches, we sought to couple them through a dynamic linkage and demonstrate the relevance of this advancement for modeling landscape processes and patterns. Methods We developed analytical techniques and software tools to couple these modeling approaches using NetLogo, R, and the ST-Sim package for SyncroSim. We demonstrated the capabilities and value of this coupled approach through a proof-of-concept case study of bison-vegetation interactions in Badlands National Park. Results The coupled ABM-STSM: (1) streamlined handling of model inputs and outputs; (2) allowed representation of processes at multiple temporal scales; (3) minimized assumptions; and (4) generated spatial and temporal patterns that better reflected agent-environment interactions. Conclusions These developments constitute a new approach for representing agent-environment feedbacks; modelers can now use output from an ABM to dictate landscape changes within an STSM that in turn influence agents. This facilitates experimentation across domains (agent and environment) and creation of more realistic and management-relevant projections, and opens new opportunities for communicating models and linking to other methods.

Landscape Ecology↗

Determination of the delta(2H/1H)of Water: RSIL Lab Code 1574

Reston Stable Isotope Laboratory (RSIL) lab code 1574 describes a method used to determine the relative hydrogen isotope-ratio delta(2H,1H), abbreviated hereafter as d2H of water. The d2H measurement of water also is a component of the National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) schedules 1142 and 1172. The water is collected unfiltered in a 60-mL glass bottle and capped with a Polyseal cap. In the laboratory, the water sample is equilibrated with gaseous hydrogen using a platinum catalyst (Horita, 1988; Horita and others, 1989; Coplen and others, 1991). The reaction for the exchange of one hydrogen atom is shown in equation 1.

Techniques and Methods↗

Elevation-derived hydrography acquisition specifications

Hydrographic features derived from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 3D Elevation Program data, and collected for use by the USGS, must meet the specifications described in this document. The specifications described herein pertain to the final product delivered to the USGS, not to methods used to derive the hydrographic features. The specifications describe the collection area, spatial reference system, attribute table structure, feature codes and values, delineation of hydrographic features, topology, positional assessment, metadata, and delivery formats. A companion document, Elevation-Derived Hydrography—Representation, Extraction, Attribution, and Delineation Rules, defines the fields, domains, and minimum feature collection requirements for hydrography features derived from elevation data. Hydrographic features collected to this specification will be suitable for using as breaklines to hydroflatten digital elevation models, processing for preconflation of features to the National Hydrography Dataset, and using for hydroenforcement of digital elevation models.

Techniques and Methods↗

Monitoring Hawaiian waterbirds: evaluation of sampling methods to produce reliable estimates

We conducted field trials to assess several different methods of estimating the abundance of four endangered Hawaiian waterbirds: the Hawaiian duck ( Anas wyvilliana ), Hawaiian coot ( Fulica alai ), Hawaiian common moorhen ( Gallinula chloropus sandvicensis ) and Hawaiian stilt ( Himantopus mexicanus knudseni ). At two sites on Oʽahu, James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge and Hamakua Marsh, we conducted field trials where both solitary and paired observers counted birds and recorded the distance to observed birds. We then compared the results of estimates using the existing simple count, distance estimates from both point- and line-transect surveys, paired observer count estimates, bounded count, and Overton estimators. Comparing covariate recorded values among simultaneous observations revealed inconsistency between observers. We showed that the variation among simple counts means the current direct count survey, even if interpreted as a proportional index of abundance, incorporates many sources of uncertainty that are not taken into account. Analysis revealed violation of model assumptions that allowed us to discount distance-based estimates as a viable estimation technique. Among the remaining methods, point counts by paired observers produced the most precise estimates while meeting model assumptions. We present an example sampling protocol using paired observer counts. Finally, we suggest further research that will improve abundance estimates of Hawaiian waterbirds.

Hawai'i↗

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion: bgaPEST, a Bayesian geostatistical approach implementation with PEST: documentation and instructions

The application bgaPEST is a highly parameterized inversion software package implementing the Bayesian Geostatistical Approach in a framework compatible with the parameter estimation suite PEST. Highly parameterized inversion refers to cases in which parameters are distributed in space or time and are correlated with one another. The Bayesian aspect of bgaPEST is related to Bayesian probability theory in which prior information about parameters is formally revised on the basis of the calibration dataset used for the inversion. Conceptually, this approach formalizes the conditionality of estimated parameters on the specific data and model available. The geostatistical component of the method refers to the way in which prior information about the parameters is used. A geostatistical autocorrelation function is used to enforce structure on the parameters to avoid overfitting and unrealistic results. Bayesian Geostatistical Approach is designed to provide the smoothest solution that is consistent with the data. Optionally, users can specify a level of fit or estimate a balance between fit and model complexity informed by the data. Groundwater and surface-water applications are used as examples in this text, but the possible uses of bgaPEST extend to any distributed parameter applications.

Techniques and Methods↗

SWToolbox: A surface-water tool-box for statistical analysis of streamflow time series

This report is a user guide for the low-flow analysis methods provided with version 1.0 of the Surface Water Toolbox (SWToolbox) computer program. The software combines functionality from two software programs—U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) SWSTAT and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) DFLOW. Both of these programs have been used primarily for computation of critical low-flow statistics. The main analysis methods are the computation of hydrologic frequency statistics such as the 7-day minimum flow that occurs on average only once every 10 years (7Q10), computation of design flows including biologically based flows, and computation of flow-duration curves and duration hydrographs. Other annual, monthly, and seasonal statistics can also be computed. The interface facilitates retrieval of streamflow discharge data from the USGS National Water Information System and outputs text reports for a record of the analysis. Tools for graphing data and screening tests are available to assist the analyst in conducting the analysis.

Techniques and Methods↗

MODFLOW-2005 : the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model--the ground-water flow process

This report presents MODFLOW-2005, which is a new version of the finite-difference ground-water model commonly called MODFLOW. Ground-water flow is simulated using a block-centered finite-difference approach. Layers can be simulated as confined or unconfined. Flow associated with external stresses, such as wells, areal recharge, evapotranspiration, drains, and rivers, also can be simulated. The report includes detailed explanations of physical and mathematical concepts on which the model is based, an explanation of how those concepts are incorporated in the modular structure of the computer program, instructions for using the model, and details of the computer code. The modular structure consists of a MAIN Program and a series of highly independent subroutines. The subroutines are grouped into 'packages.' Each package deals with a specific feature of the hydrologic system that is to be simulated, such as flow from rivers or flow into drains, or with a specific method of solving the set of simultaneous equations resulting from the finite-difference method. Several solution methods are incorporated, including the Preconditioned Conjugate-Gradient method. The division of the program into packages permits the user to examine specific hydrologic features of the model independently. This also facilitates development of additional capabilities because new packages can be added to the program without modifying the existing packages. The input and output systems of the computer program also are designed to permit maximum flexibility. The program is designed to allow other capabilities, such as transport and optimization, to be incorporated, but this report is limited to describing the ground-water flow capability. The program is written in Fortran 90 and will run without modification on most computers that have a Fortran 90 compiler.

Techniques and Methods↗