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USGS2025

Detroit River becoming a crucible for boundary organization experimentation

The Detroit River has a long history of human use and abuse, resulting in public outcry over water pollution and resource degradation. This public outcry helped catalyze the enactment of many laws and the Canada-U.S. Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement which led to enhanced research, monitoring, and water pollution control. As pollution from industries and municipal wastewater treatment plants came under control and progress was made in management of single species, the focus shifted to a more comprehensive ecosystem approach that accounted for all the sources of pollution and targeted restoring ecosystem health with resilience. Over time, the Detroit River became a “proving ground” or crucible for experimenting with boundary organizations to overcome geographical, political, institutional, and disciplinary boundaries and strengthen science-policy-management linkages for ecosystem-based management. This study identified 15 boundary organizations functioning in the Detroit River watershed and evaluated two case studies – St. Clair-Detroit River System Initiative and State of the Strait Conferences. Key lessons learned from this study include: 1) establishing boundary organizations, promoting cooperative learning, and building capacity for boundary-spanning are essential for use of an ecosystem approach; 2) boundary spanning requires specific skills, experience, and improved linkages between research and practice; 3) the 15 boundary organizations provide a unique opportunity to collaborate in a community of practice to share knowledge, foster cooperative learning, enhance problem-solving, build trust, and demonstrate leadership; and 4) continued actionable science, investment in capacity building, and cooperative learning are essential to meet long-term goals of sustainability.

Detroit River↗

USGS2011

Millennial precipitation reconstruction for the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, reveals changing drought signal

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in the American Southwest. Since the frequency and severity of hydrologic droughts and other hydroclimatic events are of critical importance to the ecology and rapidly growing human population of this region, knowledge of long-term natural hydroclimatic variability is valuable for resource managers and policy-makers. An October–June precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 824–2007 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir), Pinus strobiformis (Southwestern white pine) and Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa pine) for the Jemez Mountains in Northern New Mexico. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1896–2007 show a high level of skill, and account for a significant portion of the observed variance (>50%) irrespective of which period is used to develop or verify the regression model. Split-sample validation supports our use of a reconstruction model based on the full period of reliable observational data (1896–2007). A recent segment of the reconstruction (2000–2006) emerges as the driest 7-year period sensed by the trees in the entire record. That this period was only moderately dry in precipitation anomaly likely indicates accentuated stress from other factors, such as warmer temperatures. Correlation field maps of actual and reconstructed October–June total precipitation, sea surface temperatures and 500-mb geopotential heights show characteristics that are similar to those indicative of El Niño–Southern Oscillation patterns, particularly with regard to ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial and north Pacific. Our 1184-year reconstruction of hydroclimatic variability provides long-term perspective on current and 20th century wet and dry events in Northern New Mexico, is useful to guide expectations of future variability, aids sustainable water management, provides scenarios for drought planning and as inputs for hydrologic models under a broader range of conditions than those provided by historical climate records.

New Mexico↗

USGS2020

Stormwater quality of infrastructure elements in Rapid City, South Dakota, 2016–18

As runoff flows over the land or impervious surfaces (paved streets, parking lots, and building roofs), it accumulates debris, chemicals, sediment, and other contaminants that can adversely affect water quality if the runoff discharge remains untreated. Pathogens, commonly measured using fecal indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli , enterococci, or fecal coliform, are the most-frequent cause of water-quality impairment in rivers and streams in the United States. Rapid Creek originates in the western Black Hills area and flows east through Rapid City, South Dakota, to its mouth at the Cheyenne River. The water quality of Rapid Creek is important because the reach that flows through Rapid City is a valuable spawning area for a self-sustaining trout fishery, is actively used for recreation, and is a seasonal municipal water supply for the City of Rapid City. These uses (fishery, recreation, and water supply) are considered beneficial uses by the South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources. Numerical criteria have been established for total suspended solids and Escherichia coli concentrations, among other water-quality constituents, for these beneficial uses. The objectives of this study were to improve the method by which fecal indicator bacteria and total suspended solids are quantified in the urban drainages within Rapid City and to provide information that helps identify origins of fecal indicator bacteria and total suspended solids. This information can be used in hydrologic models to estimate fecal indicator bacteria and total suspended solid loading from certain infrastructure elements in urban environments. Stormwater samples analyzed for Escherichia coli , total suspended solids, specific conductance, and pH were collected in three drainage basin flowpaths within Rapid City: Jackson, Wildwood, and the Eco Prayer Park. Data-collection activities for this study focused on upgradient urban flowpath elements during rainfall events. This approach builds upon previous stormwater assessments that characterized the water quality in urban basin outlets near the downstream end of the stormwater flowpaths. Within each flowpath group, 4–6 sites were selected to represent the various infrastructure elements of the runoff process. These elements included roof downspouts, parking lots, street curbs and gutters, open channels, underground storm sewers, and stormwater ponds or best-management practice facilities. In general, the concentrations of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids increased in the downstream direction for all flowpath sites. The wash-off process after the first flush is evident for total suspended solids and specific conductance; however, Escherichia coli concentrations did not necessarily follow the same pattern. Escherichia coli concentrations in the latter part of the runoff period were similar to or greater than the initial concentrations of the first set of samples. Stormwater-quality data were summarized by infrastructure type (roof downspout, parking lot, street curb, and channel/storm sewer) to provide information about approximate water-quality concentrations originating at the upper end of urban flowpaths. Escherichia coli and total suspended solid concentrations were lowest in samples collected from locations most isolated from human influence (roof downspouts); the median concentrations at these sites were 4 most probable number per 100 milliliters and 15 milligrams per liter, respectively. The delivery potential of fecal indicator bacteria and sediment from parking lots and street curbs was similar; median concentrations of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids were around 150–220 most probable number per 100 milliliters and 56–86 milligrams per liter, respectively. The downstream receiving channels and storm sewers where stormwater was aggregated typically contained the highest Escherichia coli concentrations (median was 1,800 most probable number per 100 milliliters), but the total suspended solid concentrations were similar to upstream elements in the flowpath (median was 69 milligrams per liter). The data collected from this study demonstrate that stormwater is contaminated with fecal indicator bacteria upon initial contact with impervious surfaces and highlight the importance of controlling the volume of stormwater discharges into receiving waterbodies via storage structures and pervious elements. Diluting stormwater with high concentrations of Escherichia coli with the receiving water’s (Rapid Creek) lower concentration of Escherichia coli is likely the primary mechanism for meeting the beneficial-use criterion threshold of 235 most probable number per 100 milliliters. Although total suspended solid concentrations in the upper parts of the basin (parking lots and street curbs) also begin at concentrations (56 to 86 milligrams per liter) above the beneficial-use criterion for Rapid Creek (53 milligrams per liter), current stormwater-control practices (storage ponds, swales, and wetlands) may be able to reduce suspended-sediment concentrations to meet this threshold.

South Dakota↗

USGS1988

Water resources of the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, northern Wisconsin

The Apostle Islands National Lakeshore consists of 21 islands, part of the Bayfield Peninsula, and the adjacent waters of Lake Superior. Selected water resources of the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore were assessed to aid the National Park Service in developing and managing the Lakeshore and to provide a data base against which future changes can be compared. This summary of water-resources data, collected by the U.S. Geological Survey during 1979-84, provides a qualitative description of selected hydrologic components of the Lakeshore. Streamflow in the Lakeshore area is characterized by typical seasonal fluctuations. Flow in Sand River at State Highway 13 ranged from 3.9 to 1,630 cubic feet per second. The recurrence interval of the maximum observed discharge was about 4 years. The minimum observed 7-day low flow was 3.86 cubic feet per second. The greatest concentrations of most chemical constituents in Bayfield Peninsula streams occurred during base flow. Annual sediment loads in Sand River at State Highway 13 ranged from 977 tons in 1980 water year to 24,600 tons in 1984 water year.The average annual sediment load transported by Bayfield Peninsula streams to the National Lakeshore area of Lake Superior is estimated to be 44,000 tons. Annual phosphorus loads ranged from 1,400 pounds in 1980 water year to 11,100 pounds in 1984 water year. The average annual phosphorus load transported by Bayfield Peninsula streams to the National Lakeshore area of Lake Superior is estimated to be 21,500 pounds. Few island streams flow perennially, but Oak Island streams generally yield more base-flow runoff than Stockton Island streams. The base flow of Oak Island streams is dominated by ground-water discharge, whereas Stockton Island stream base flow is sustained by seepage from wetlands and beaver ponds. There are two major lagoons in the Lakeshore, the Outer Island Lagoon's area is 53 acres and its maximum depth is 7 feet. Dominant inflow to the lagoon is from precipitation on its surface and seepage from an adjacent bog. Outflow during open-water periods is dominated by evaporation. Ground-water seepage from the lagoon toward Lake Superior occurs yearround. The lagoon's water is acidic and has low specific conductance and generally small concentrations of most chemical constituents. The Michigan Island Lagoon is about 4 acres in area and its maximum depth is 6.5 feet. The most significant sources of inflow appear to be precipitation and wave washover from Lake Superior. Water from four deep-water monitoring sites in Lake Superior revealed concentrations of total phosphorus, organic carbon, and recoverable mercury ranging from <0.01 to 0.02 milligrams per liter, 1.1 to 5.3 milligrams per liter and <0.1 to 0.1 micrograms per liter, respectively. Neither pesticide residues nor fecal coliform bacteria were detected in the water column. Total phosphorus concentrations in bottom sediment ranged from 50 to 470 milligrams per kilogram and were related directly to the percentage of fine-grained (< 0.0625 millimeters) sediment particles. Traces of only two pesticide residues- DDE and DDT were detected in sediment. The most abundant benthic macroinvertebrate was Pontoporeia affinis, which was found in densities of from 960 to 2,100 organisms per square meter. No adverse affects resulting from visitor use were detected in the shallow-water, heavy-use areas in Presque Isle Bay off Stockton Island or in the waters between Rocky and South Twin Islands. Phosphorus and organic-carbon concentrations were similar to those observed in the deep-water area; mercury was not detected in water from either area. Ground-water use in the National Lakeshore is primarily for consumption by Lakeshore visitors and employees. Of 14 wells constructed from 1979-84, 4 were finished in glacial sand and gravel, and 10 were finished in sandstone. Specific capacities ranged from 0.63 to 50 gallon per minute per foot. Average concentrations of dissolved solids are moderate and concentrations of heavy metals did not exceed Wisconsin's primary health standard.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Grand challenges of hydrologic modeling for food-energy-water nexus security in high mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution ( in-situ ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

Frontiers in Water↗

USGS2026

Towards affordable wetland evapotranspiration monitoring using the Variance-Bowen Ratio method: Insights from three contrasting wetlands

Accurate measurement of evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for sustainable water management. Standard methods such as eddy covariance (EC) are costly, while alternatives such as surface renewal are cheaper but require calibration and complex data processing. This study evaluates the utility of the Variance-Bowen Ratio (VBR) method for estimating ET across three California’s wetlands. Using data from 2023, half-hourly latent heat flux (λE) and daily/monthly ET from VBR were compared with EC at one non-tidal (site A) and two tidal (sites B and C) wetlands. λE VBR consistently underestimated λE EC , with root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 61.2 W m -2 at sites A, 106.1 W m -2 at site B, and 137.2 W m -2 at site C, largely due to storage fluxes across sites. Temporal integration improved VBR’s performance at tidal sites, where compensating water heat storage errors yielded low daily and monthly biases (site B: RMSE = 0.78 mm/d and 12 mm/month; r = 0.93; site C: RMSE = 0.90 mm/d and 13 mm/month; r = 0.93), with reduced major axis (RMA) regression slopes of 0.98 and ~0.91. In contrast, biomass heat storage at site A caused persistent biases (RMSEs = 0.97 mm/d and 23 mm/month; daily and monthly RMA slopes ~0.75; r = 0.85). These results highlight VBR’s limitations in environments with substantial storage fluxes. Despite this, VBR is cost-effective for estimating daily and monthly ET, with sensor costs at least tenfold lower than EC and simpler setup, making it suitable for ET monitoring in resource-limited and hard-to-access regions.

California↗

USGS2022

Water storage decisions and consumptive use may constrain ecosystem management under severe sustained drought

Drought has impacted the Colorado River basin for the past 20 years and is predicted to continue. In response, decisions about how much water should be stored in large reservoirs and how much water can be consumptively used will be necessary. These decisions have the potential to limit riverine ecosystem management options through the effect water-supply decisions have on reservoir elevations. We used projected hydrology and river temperatures to compare the outcome of combinations of water storage scenarios and consumptive use limits on metrics associated with ecosystem management of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Ecosystem management metrics included the ability to implement designer flows, temperature suitability for fishes, and fragmentation. We compared current water management operations to prioritizing storage in either Lake Mead or Lake Powell combined with three levels of consumptive use. Projected reservoir levels limited environmental flow delivery and increased fragmentation regardless of where water was stored if consumptive use was not limited. Warmer river temperatures associated with low reservoir levels are likely, creating suitable conditions for non-native species of concern, such as smallmouth bass. Water storage decisions provided variability and management flexibility, but water storage was less important when less water was available, highlighting the importance of keeping water in the system to provide flexibility for achieving ecosystem goals.

Arizona, Utah↗

USGS2022

Little bugs, big data, and Colorado River adaptive management: Preliminary findings from the ongoing bug flow experiment at Glen Canyon Dam

The undammed Colorado River in Grand Canyon was characterized by spring snow-melt floods that sometimes exceeded 100,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). These were followed by occasional flash floods during summer monsoons, then by low flows from fall through early spring (Figure 1; Topping and others, 2003). This seasonally variable flow regime carried huge loads of sediment and was an important driver of natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. For instance, high turbidity associated with this flow regime likely restricted algal growth to the river’s edge or shallow cobble habitats, similar to other desert rivers. Aquatic invertebrate assemblages were probably diverse and adapted to these variable conditions (Vinson, 2001; Haden and others, 2003). Native fishes were likely opportunistic feeders, consuming ants, seeds, and other terrestrial resources during times of flooding and switching to aquatic-derived resources like algae and aquatic invertebrates at other times (Minckley, 1991; Behn and Baxter, 2019). Regulation of the Colorado River by Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 eliminated the annual snowmelt floods, it sharply increased base flows by more than 50 percent, and dramatically increased within-day fluctuations in discharge for hydropower production (the ‘daily tides’ of the river, Figure 1 and 2; Topping and others, 2003). Glen Canyon Dam also changed other aspects of the river’s physical template, particularly temperature, sediment, and nutrient regimes. These changes to the physical template of the river led to fundamental changes in the natural processes that the sustain Colorado River ecosystem. For example, algae are common throughout the river during periods of clear water and represent the foundation of aquatic food webs (Stevens and others, 1997; Cross and others 2013). Many types of aquatic insects have disappeared or become rare, particularly sensitive groups such as mayflies, stoneflies, and caddisflies (Kennedy and others, 2016). Because aquatic insect assemblages in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon are neither diverse nor productive, food webs are simplified and inherently unstable, limiting populations of hungry fish (Cross and others 2013; Korman and others 2021).

Arizona↗

USGS2004

Seafloor habitat mapping and classification in Glacier Bay, Alaska: Phase 1 & 2 1996-2004

Glacier Bay is a diverse fjord ecosystem with multiple sills, numerous tidewater glaciers and a highly complex oceanographic system. The Bay was completely glaciated prior to the 1700’s and subsequently experienced the fastest glacial retreat recorded in historical times. Currently, some of the highest sedimentation rates ever observed occur in the Bay, along with rapid uplift (up to 2.5 cm/year) due to a combination of plate tectonics and isostatic rebound. Glacier Bay is the second deepest fjord in Alaska, with depths over 500 meters. This variety of physical processes and bathymetry creates many diverse habitats within a relatively small area (1,255 km 2 ). Habitat can be defined as the locality, including resources and environmental conditions, occupied by a species or population of organisms (Morrison et al 1992). Mapping and characterization of benthic habitat is crucial to an understanding of marine species and can serve a variety of purposes including: understanding species distributions and improving stock assessments, designing special management areas and marine protected areas, monitoring and protecting important habitats, and assessing habitat change due to natural or human impacts. In 1996, Congress recognized the importance of understanding benthic habitat for fisheries management by reauthorizing the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act and amending it with the Sustainable Fisheries Act (SFA). This amendment emphasizes the importance of habitat protection to healthy fisheries and requires identification of essential fish habitat in management decisions. Recently, the National Park Service’s Ocean Stewardship Strategy identified the creation of benthic habitat maps and sediment maps as crucial components to complete basic ocean park resource inventories (Davis 2003). Glacier Bay National Park managers currently have very limited knowledge about the bathymetry, sediment types, and various marine habitats of ecological importance in the Park. Ocean floor bathymetry and sediment type are the building blocks of marine communities. Bottom type and shape affects the kinds of benthic communities that develop in a particular environment as well as the oceanographic conditions that communities are subject to. Accurate mapping of the ocean floor is essential for park manager’s understanding of existing marine communities and will be important in assessing human induced changes (e.g., vessel traffic and commercial fishing), biological change (e.g., rapid sea otter recolonization), and geological processes of change (e.g., deglaciation). Information on animal-habitat relationships, particularly within a marine reserve framework, will be valuable to agencies making decisions about critical habitats, marine reserve design, as well as fishery management. Identification and mapping of benthic habitat provides National Park Service mangers with tools to increase the effectiveness of resource management. The primary objective of this project is to investigate the geological characteristics of the biological habitats of halibut, Dungeness crab, king crab, and Tanner crab within Glacier Bay National Park. Additionally, habitat classification of shallow water regions of Glacier Bay will provide crucial information on the relationship between benthic habitat features and the abundance of benthic prey items for a variety of marine predators, including sea ducks, the rapidly increasing population of sea otters, and other marine mammals.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins Geohydrology and optimal water resources management—Developed using density dependent solute transport and optimization models

Groundwater has been a part of the city of Santa Barbara’s water-supply portfolio since the 1800s; however, since the 1960s, the majority of the city’s water has come from local surface water, and the remainder has come from groundwater, State Water Project, recycled water, increased water conservation, and as needed, seawater desalination. Although groundwater from the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins only accounts for a small percentage of the long-term supply, it is an important source of supplemental water during times of surface-water shortages. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, production wells extracted additional groundwater to compensate for drought related water-delivery shortfalls from other sources; in response, water levels declined substantially in the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins (below sea level in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin). In coastal basins that have groundwater extraction near shore, seawater intrusion is often a problem. Seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin is thought to be more limited than in other coastal basins because of an offshore fault that acts as a partial barrier to groundwater flow. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seawater intrusion was observed in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, as indicated by increased chloride concentrations at several monitoring wells that ranged from 200 ft to 1,300 ft from the ocean and as close as 2,900 ft to the nearest pumping well. This demonstrated that seawater can intrude into the Santa Barbara groundwater basin when groundwater levels fall below sea level near the coast. The city of Santa Barbara is interested in developing a better understanding of the sustainability of its groundwater supplies. In 2014, California adopted historic legislation to manage its groundwater: the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA requires the development and implementation of “Groundwater Sustainability Plans” in 127 priority groundwater basins; although Santa Barbara was not a designated priority basin, the city is taking steps to achieve sustainability. Sustainability was defined in the SGMA in terms of avoiding undesirable results: significant and unreasonable groundwater-level declines, reduction in groundwater storage, seawater intrusion, water-quality degradation, land subsidence, and surface-water depletion. In this project, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Santa Barbara, sustainable yield is defined as the volume of groundwater that can be pumped from storage without causing water-level drawdowns and the associated increases in seawater intrusion (as indicated by increases in measured chloride concentrations) at selected wells. In order to estimate the sustainability of Santa Barbara’s groundwater basins, a three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater-flow and solute-transport model (the Santa Barbara Flow and Transport Model, or SBFTM) was developed on the basis of an existing groundwater-flow model. To simulate seawater intrusion to the Santa Barbara Basin under various management strategies, the SBFTM uses the USGS code SEAWAT to simulate salinity transport and variable-density flow. The completed SBFTM was coupled with a management optimization tool, in this case a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, to determine optimal pumping strategies that maximize the sustainable yield and at the same time satisfy user-defined drawdown and chloride-concentration constraints. As part of this study, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed to quantify the extent and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins and to help define the discretization and hydraulic properties used in the SBFTM. The development of the hydrogeologic framework model required the collection and reconciliation of geologic and geophysical data from existing maps, reports, and databases, along with geologic and hydrologic data from recently drilled wells. These data were integrated into a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model that defines the stratigraphy and geometry of the aquifer zones and the major geologic structures in the basin. The hydrogeologic framework model also quantifies the variation in sediment grain size within each aquifer zone as the percentage of coarse-grained sediment. Previous studies indicated that there are two principal water-producing zones in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, the upper and lower producing zones; an additional thin, productive zone was identified as part of this study. This “middle producing zone” is not as areally extensive as the upper and lower producing zones and only exists in the coastal part of Storage Unit I. These producing zones are bounded at depth by less productive shallow, middle, and deep zones. Two versions of the SBFTM were constructed: an initial-condition model and a modern transient model. The initial-condition model is a long-term transient model that simulates flow and solute-transport conditions during a period with limited anthropogenic influences preceeding the modern transient model. The simulation-transient model simulates flow and transport conditions from 1929 through 2013; however, because of data availability, the focus of the model calibration was 1972–2013. The SBFTM was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and drawdown, as well as measured chloride concentrations and change in concentrations, using a combination of automated and trial-and-error parameter-estimation techniques. A sensitivity analysis indicated that, in general, the SBFTM was most sensitive to recharge- and pumping-distribution parameters, specifically those controlling the amount of small-catchment recharge and the distribution of water extraction by hydrogeologic layer for production wells. The model was also sensitive to parameters controlling stream-recharge rates, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, and porosity. From 1929 to 1971, most of the water entering the area represented by the SBFTM was from creek and small-catchment recharge, and the majority of water leaving the SBFTM area was from pumping, discharge to creeks, and drains. In addition, about 37 percent of the total pumpage came from a net reduction in groundwater storage. From 1972 to 2013, the amount of water entering and leaving the SBFTM was fairly similar as that from 1929 to 1971, except the reduction in pumpage added about 17,000 acre-ft of water to storage. During this later period, there were also times of storage loss. For example, during July 1990, a month when approximately 705 acre-ft of groundwater was pumped in the study area, the pumpage was much greater than all sources of recharge combined, and about 382 acre-ft of water was removed from groundwater storage. Simulated hydraulic heads replicated the observed data to an acceptable matching of the measured water-level, flow direction, and vertical gradients. Simulated hydrographs for selected wells were in good agreement with the measured data, with an average residual of -2.7 ft and a standard deviation of 14.5 ft, indicating that the simulated heads, on average, underestimated the observed water levels. An examination of the model fit indicated that most of the discrepancies were lower simulated heads at wells proximal to production well sites. The simulated chloride concentrations reasonably matched the rising limbs of the measured breakthrough curves in terms of timing and magnitude; however, the simulation overestimated the chloride concentrations on the falling limbs. The overestimation of low chloride concentrations was attributed to the model overestimating the advance of the chloride front during periods of heavy pumping and underestimating the retreat of the chloride front during periods of low pumping. These simulation errors would result in a conservative response by local water managers to seawater intrusion. The SBFTM was used to develop a collection of predictive simulations optimized to produce pumping schedules that maximize yield, subject to a set of constraints and competing objectives. The simulations were grouped as scenarios that differed in their time horizon, initial conditions for groundwater levels and chloride concentrations, as well as precipitation, which was incorporated into the model through simulated recharge. Overall, five scenarios were developed in a multi-objective framework to obtain optimal pumping rates for all of the wells managed by the city, while minimizing excessive drawdown and seawater intrusion. For the current study, complexities in the simulation model and the optimization formulation required additional considerations. Incorporating the solute-transport equations to simulate chloride transport added a highly nonlinear process that is solved iteratively in each time step of the groundwater-flow model. These nonlinearities, coupled with the highly refined grid in the current model, creates challenges for many traditional optimization methods. Therefore, an optimization method was needed that could address nonlinear relationships as well as a very large problem size. Lastly, the optimization problem was reformulated to include multiple objectives without requiring convergence to a single solution. This approach, guided by the city’s objectives, allowed the maximum extraction of information from the complex simulation. Borg, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, was chosen as the optimization algorithm for this study for several reasons: (1) it is very computationally efficient; (2) it can run in parallel; (3) it requires little user input; and (4) it can solve for multiple competing objectives. The first three points allow the algorithm to proceed toward the optimal solutions at the fastest possible rate. The fourth point is advantageous for large, complex optimization problems because it is difficult to formulate the optimization problem in a way that produces only one optimal solution. The problem formulation consisted of four competing objectives and a constraint set in accordance with the main concerns of the city. The objectives were maximizing total pumpage, minimizing seawater intrusion, minimizing total drawdown in production wells, and minimizing the maximum drawdown. The constraints were pump capacity, meeting drinking-water standards for chloride, maintaining a specified minimum flowrate to a groundwater treatment plant, and maintaining minimum water levels in pumping wells. The decision variables either were quarterly pumpage by well or total pumpage by basin. Five optimization scenarios were developed that allow the decision makers to evaluate a range of optimal solutions for a variety of water levels and chloride concentrations as well as potential future climatic conditions. Three scenarios (1, 2, and 5) were multi-objective optimization formulations that allowed for variations in management preferences and climatic conditions. The other two scenarios (3 and 4) were designed to examine the optimization results to answer specific questions. Scenario 1 described the best-case sustainable yield assuming a “full” basin (that is, high initial water levels) and typical climate conditions for 10 years. Scenario 2 also started with a “full” basin; however, this was followed by a 10-year drought. Scenario 3 determined if an “empty” basin (that is, low initial water levels) would recover to full conditions (1998 conditions) given climate assumptions and optimal pumping schedules from scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 4 was designed to produce decision rules that can be used by water managers to help choose an optimal pumping schedule based on measured water-level or chloride data. Scenario 5 identified future pumping schedules based on short-term climate variations during a 2-year management horizon. The results from scenarios 1 and 2 described the differences in maximum pumpage in the basin under typical and dry long-term climate projections, respectively. The scenario 1 results indicated the maximum 10-year pumpage of the basin was about 31,300 acre-ft under typical conditions and controlling simulated seawater intrusion and drawdowns. For scenario 2, less recharge over the 10-year dry climate produced a maximum pumpage estimate of 30,000 acre-ft to control seawater intrusion and drawdowns. The larger pumpage for scenario 1 resulted in more seawater intrusion, but less total drawdown, compared to that of scenario 2. Results for scenarios 3 and 4 showed the basin’s response to management actions combined with climate projections. Both scenarios used the optimal pumping schedules and the 10-year climates from scenarios 1 and 2. The scenario 3 results showed that under minimal pumping, the basin did not fully recover to 1998 water levels within 10 years under either climate scenario. The relatively larger recharge from the typical climate resulted in less drawdown at coastal monitoring wells after the 10-year recovery period than that from the dry climate. The location of the seawater intrusion front was not appreciably different between the scenarios, however. Scenario 4 used the optimal results from scenarios 1 and 2 to produce decision-rule curves that illustrated the pumpage for each basin, given measured levels of chloride concentration or drawdown. This allowed the use of additional measurements at monitoring wells to assess future management decisions on the basis of the sensitivity of observations of drawdown and seawater intrusion to various pumping rates. Scenario 5 allowed managers to investigate the effects of short-term climate variations on optimal pumping schedules. Three specific 2-year simulations were optimized: typical-to-dry (scenario 5A), dry-to-typical (scenario 5B), and dry-to-dry (scenario 5C). The most noteable result from scenario 5 was the overall reduction in optimal pumpage for most schedules in scenario 5C, when the climate is simulated as dry-to-dry. There are also many optimal pumping schedules that produced an overall increase in waterlevels over the two-year simulation period, regardless of climatic condition. Similar to scenario 2, the scenario 5C results represents conservative yield estimates under a minimal-precipitation climatic condition.

California↗

USGS2020

Council monitoring and assessment program (CMAP): A framework for using the monitoring program inventory to conduct gap assessments for the Gulf of Mexico Region

Executive Summary Under the Resources and Ecosystem Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf Coast States Act of 2012 (RESTORE Act), the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council (RESTORE Council or Council) is required to report on the progress of funded projects and programs. Systematic monitoring of restoration at the project-specific and programmatic-levels (watershed and Gulf of Mexico) enables consistent reporting and gives the public confidence that the restoration investments selected by the RESTORE Council will be evaluated and adaptively managed accordingly. Monitoring information that has been collected at different spatial and temporal scales can be used as the foundation to illustrate progress towards comprehensive ecosystem restoration goals and objectives that promote holistic Gulf of Mexico recovery (see ‘RESTORE Council Background’ at the beginning of this report for additional Council information). Currently, federal, state and local agencies, universities, private industry, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are conducting monitoring activities at various scales around the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, each RESTORE Council-funded project will, at a minimum, perform project-specific monitoring. This collection of monitoring activities was inventoried and coordinated into a network of existing programs by the Council-funded RESTORE Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP), which will suggest opportunities for efficiencies and collaborative cross-program review of performance with other Gulf ecosystem recovery efforts. CMAP was designed and funded to inventory and integrate existing monitoring efforts, improve discovery and accessibility of existing monitoring data, and ensure the collected information supports management decisions. The fundamental approach to building the CMAP Gulf of Mexico water quality monitoring, habitat monitoring, and mapping network was to: 1. Adopt, or construct as needed, a comprehensive inventory of existing habitat and water quality observation, monitoring, and mapping programs in the Gulf of Mexico (hereafter referred to as the “Inventory”; NOAA and USGS, 2019a); 2. Evaluate the suitability/applicability of each program and its existing and prospective data for use in restoration activities; 3. Develop a process to use the Inventory to conduct gap assessments; 4. Develop a catalog of baseline assessments conducted in the Gulf of Mexico (NOAA and USGS, 2019b); and 5. Develop a searchable monitoring information portal/database to enable access to collected information and products.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS2025

Fisheries research and monitoring activities of the Lake Erie Biological Station, 2024

A comprehensive understanding of fish populations and their interactions is the cornerstone of modern fishery management and the basis for Lake Erie’s Fish Community Objectives (FCOs) developed in 2020 (Francis et al. 2020). The 2024 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Lake Erie Biological Station Annual Report is responsive to these FCOs and the USGS obligations via a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU 2017) with the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) Council of Lake Committees (CLC) to provide scientific information in support of fishery management. Goals for the USGS Great Lakes Deepwater Fish Assessment and Ecological Studies were to monitor long-term changes in the fish community and track population dynamics of key fishes of interest to management agencies. Specific to Lake Erie, expectations were sustained investigations of native percids, prey fish populations, and Lake Trout. All work was conducted as part of the Deepwater Science Program under the authority of the Great Lakes Fishery Research Authorization Act of 2019 (16 USC §941h). The USGS 2024 Deepwater Science Program fieldwork began in Lake Erie in March and concluded in December, using trawl, gill net, hydroacoustic, lower trophic sampling devices, and telemetry methods. This work resulted in 44 bottom trawls covering 41 ha of lake bottom and catching 48,936 fish totaling 995 kg in the West Basin of Lake Erie, with detailed results described below. Overnight gill net sets (n=25) for coldwater species were performed in the East Basin of Lake Erie. A total of 8 km of gillnet was deployed during these surveys, which caught 106 fish, 92 of which were native coldwater species: Lake Trout, Burbot, and Lake Whitefish. Results from coldwater species assessments will be reported in the Coldwater Task Group report to the GLFC and the CLC (CTG 2025). These reports are used to inform Lake Trout stocking decisions and direct lamprey control measures (16 USC §939a). USGS hydroacoustic sampling included twenty-six 5-km transects (130 km total) in the Central Basin as part of a collaborative lake-wide survey with details and results reported by the Forage Task Group (FTG 2025). Lower trophic sampling provided data from zooplankton samples (n=12) and water quality profiles (n=12) to populate a database maintained by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR), Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission (PFBC), and New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). USGS also assisted CLC member agencies with deployment and maintenance of Great Lakes Acoustic Telemetry Observation System (GLATOS) infrastructure throughout all three Lake Erie basins and tributaries, supporting multiple coordinated telemetry investigations. This report presents biomass-based summaries of fish communities in western Lake Erie derived from USGS bottom trawl surveys conducted from 2013 to 2024 during June and September. The survey design compliments the August ODNR- OMNRF effort by reinforcing stock assessments with more robust data. Analyses herein evaluated trends in total biomass, abundance of dominant predator and forage species, non-native species composition, biodiversity, and community structure. Data from this effort are accessible for download (Keretz et al. 2025)

Lake Erie↗

USGS2011

Streamflow, groundwater hydrology, and water quality in the upper Coleto Creek watershed in southeast Texas, 2009–10

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District, Victoria County Groundwater Conservation District, Pecan Valley Groundwater Conservation District, Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority, and San Antonio River Authority, did a study to examine the hydrology and stream-aquifer interactions in the upper Coleto Creek watershed. Findings of the study will enhance the scientific understanding of the study-area hydrology and be used to support water-management decisions to help ensure protection of the Evangeline aquifer and surface-water resources in the study area. This report describes the results of streamflow measurements, groundwater-level measurements, and water quality (from both surface-water and groundwater sites) collected from three sampling events (July–August 2009, January 2010, and June 2010) designed to characterize groundwater (from the Evangeline aquifer) and surface water, and the interaction between them, in the upper Coleto Creek watershed upstream from Coleto Creek Reservoir in southeast Texas. This report also provides a baseline level of water quality for the upper Coleto Creek watershed. Three surface-water gain-loss surveys—July 29–30, 2009, January 11–13, 2010, and June 21–22, 2010—were done under differing hydrologic conditions to determine the locations and amounts of streamflow recharging or discharging from the Evangeline aquifer. During periods when flow in the reaches of the upper Coleto Creek watershed was common (such as June 2010, when 12 of 25 reaches were flowing) or probable (such as January 2010, when 22 of 25 reaches were flowing), most of the reaches appeared to be gaining (86 percent in January 2010 and 92 percent in June 2010); however, during drought conditions (July 2009), streamflow was negligible in the entire upper Coleto Creek watershed; streamflow was observed in only two reaches during this period, one that receives inflow directly from Audilet Spring and another reach immediately downstream from Audilet Spring. Water levels in the aquifer at this time declined to the point that the aquifer could no longer provide sufficient water to the streams to sustain flow. Groundwater-level altitudes were measured at as many as 33 different wells in the upper Coleto Creek watershed during three different survey events: August 4–7 and 12, 2009; January 12–14 and 22, 2010; and June 21–24, 2010. These data were used in conjunction with groundwater-level altitudes from three continuously monitored wells to generate potentiometric surface maps for each of the three sampling events to help characterize the groundwater hydrology of the Evangeline aquifer. The altitudes of potentiometric surface contours from all three sampling events are highest in the northeast part of the study area and lowest in the southwest part of the study area. Groundwater flow direction shifts from southeast to east across the watershed, roughly coinciding with the general flow direction of the main stem of Coleto Creek. Groundwater-level altitudes increased an average of 2.35 inches between the first and third sampling events as drought conditions in summer 2009 were followed by consistent rains the subsequent fall and winter, an indication that the aquifer responds relatively quickly to both the absence and relative abundance of precipitation. A total of 44 water-quality samples were collected at 21 different sites over the course of the three sampling events (August 4–7, 2009, January 12–14, 2010, and June 21–24, 2010). In most cases, samples from each site were analyzed for the following constituents: dissolved solids, major ions, alkalinity, nutrients, trace elements, and stable isotopes (hydrogen, oxygen, and strontium). Major-ion compositions were relatively consistent among most of the samples from the upper Coleto Creek watershed (generally calcium bicarbonate waters, with chloride often making a major contribution). Of the 23 trace elements that were analyzed in water samples as part of this study, only arsenic (in two samples) and manganese (in seven samples) had concentrations that exceeded public drinking-water standards or guidelines. At 3 of the 19 sites sampled—State wells 79-06-411, 79-14-204, and Audilet Spring—nitrate concentrations exceeded the threshold (2.0 milligrams per liter) associated with anthropogenic contributions. The majority of the water samples (36 out of 44) that were analyzed for stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen during the three sampling events plotted in a relatively tight cluster centered near the global meteoric water line. The eight remaining samples, which include the four surface-water samples collected in June 2010, the sample collected from Coleto Creek Reservoir in January 2010, and all three samples collected at State well 79-15-904, deviate from the global meteoric water line in a way that indicates evaporative losses. The isotopic signatures of the three samples collected at State well 79-15-904, when taken in conjunction with its proximity to Coleto Creek Reservoir, indicate that there is likely a hydraulic connection between the two. When all of the sites are examined as a whole, there is a general pattern in strontium concentrations across the entire watershed that indicates that both the surface-water and groundwater samples derive from a single source (the Evangeline aquifer) with relatively uniform water-rock interactions.

Texas↗

USGS2013

Identification of metrics to monitor salt marsh integrity on National Wildlife Refuges in relation to conservation and management objectives

Executive Summary Most salt marshes in the US have been degraded by human activities, and threats from physical alterations, surrounding land-use, species invasions, and global climate change persist. Salt marshes are unique and highly productive ecosystems with high intrinsic value to wildlife, and many National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have been established in coastal areas to protect large tracts of salt marsh and wetland-dependent species. Various management practices are employed routinely on coastal NWRs to restore and enhance marsh integrity and ensure ecosystem sustainability. Prioritizing NWR salt marshes for application of management actions and choosing among multiple management options requires scientifically-based methods for assessing marsh condition. Monitoring is integral to structured decision-making (SDM), a formal process for decomposing a decision into its essential elements. Within a natural resource context, SDM involves identifying management objectives, alternative management actions, and expected management outcomes. The core of SDM is a set of criteria for measuring system performance and evaluating management responses. Therefore, use of SDM to frame natural resource decisions leads to logical selection of monitoring attributes that are linked explicitly to management needs. We used SDM to guide selection of variables for monitoring the ecological integrity of salt marshes within the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS). Our objectives were to identify indicators of salt marsh integrity that are effective across large geographic regions, responsive to a wide range of threats, and feasible to implement within funding and staffing constraints of the NWRS. In April, 2008, we engaged interdisciplinary experts in a week-long rapid prototyping SDM workshop to define the essential elements of salt marsh management decisions on refuges throughout the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern US, corresponding to respective Regions 5, 2, and 1 of the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). Through this process we identified measurable attributes for monitoring salt marsh ecosystems that are integrated into conservation practice and target management objectives. The following salt marsh attributes were identified through the SDM process either for describing state condition to determine management needs or for evaluating the achievement of management objectives: historical condition and geomorphic setting; ditch density; surrounding land use; ratio of open water area to vegetation area; rate of pesticide application; environmental contaminant concentration; change in marsh surface elevation relative to sea level rise; tidal range and groundwater level; surface topography; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, invertebrates, nekton, and breeding and wintering birds. The identified attributes were too broadly defined to serve as operational monitoring variables. Therefore, we tested specific metrics for quantifying most of these attributes in summers of 2008 and 2009. The first four attributes in the above list can be characterized by office-based analysis of existing GIS data layers. The remaining attributes require field-based methods for assessment. We were forced to exclude a small number of attributes from field tests due to inconsistent data (pesticide application rate, environmental contaminant concentrations) or requirements that exceeded the scope of this project (change in marsh surface elevation; surface topography; benthic invertebrates; wintering birds). We evaluated potential metrics for evaluating all remaining field attributes. In partnership with NWRS biologists, we tested rapid versus intensive metrics for monitoring field attributes (tidal range and groundwater level; marsh surface elevation; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, nekton, and breeding birds) at coastal refuges throughout FWS Region 5. Seven refuges participated in metric testing in 2008: Rachel Carson (ME), Parker River (MA), Wertheim (NY), E. B. Forsythe (NJ), Bombay Hook (DE), Prime Hook (DE), and Eastern Shore of Virginia Complex (VA). These seven and two additional refuges participated in metric testing in 2009: Rhode Island Complex (RI) and Stewart B. McKinney (CT). We based all field metrics on existing protocols for salt marsh assessment. Sampling locations were determined randomly within delineated marsh study units (MSUs) at each refuge. Detailed field methods are provided in appendices to this report. Measurements for individual metrics were averaged across samples within MSUs during each year of sampling. Each year, correlation or regression analysis was conducted on average measurements across MSUs within each attribute set to identify redundant metrics. Statistical redundancy between a pair of metrics within an attribute set (i.e., correlation or regression slopes with p-values < 0.05) was considered justification for eliminating one of the pair from the regional set of monitoring metrics. Decisions regarding metric elimination versus retention were based on feasibility of monitoring, considering such factors as sampling time, resources required, and potential for regional standardization in implementation. The result of these tests is a reduced suite of monitoring metrics that targets NWRS management decisions and is practicable for implementing on a regional scale. Based on these tests, we recommend the following list of metrics for monitoring integrity of NWRS salt marshes (marsh attribute category is in parentheses): (historical condition and geomorphic setting) position of marsh in the landscape, marsh shape, degree of fill and/or fragmentation, degree of tidal flushing, amount of aquatic edge; (ditch density) ranking of ditch density from none to severe; (surrounding land use) relative proportion of agricultural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 1-km buffer around the marsh; (ratio of open water area to vegetation area) ratio of open water to emergent herbaceous wetlands within the marsh; (marsh surface elevation) elevation referenced to NAVD88 in a representative area of the marsh; (tidal range and groundwater level) percent of time the marsh surface is flooded during deployment of a continuous water-level monitor at a representative marsh location, mean depth of surface flooding as measured by a continuous water-level monitor at a representative location; (salinity) salinity measured in surface water; (vegetation community) vegetation species richness using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots, percent cover of various marsh community types within 100-m diameter survey plots; (invasive species abundance) percent cover of invasive plant species measured using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots; (nekton community) nekton density, nekton species richness, length of Fundulus heteroclitus ; (breeding bird community) abundance of Willets counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys, summed abundance of tidal marsh obligate species (Clapper Rail, Willet, Saltmarsh Sparrow, Seaside Sparrow) counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys. Metrics describing the historical condition, geomorphic setting, and broad landscape features can be assessed using existing GIS databases. Our results support use of rapid methods to assess the majority of field metrics; only those used to describe the nekton community must be measured using intensive methods (throw traps or ditch nets, dependant on habitat configuration). Implementation of these metrics for quantitative assessment of NWRS salt marsh integrity in FWS Region 5 requires developing sampling designs for each refuge. Additionally, it is important to determine how the monitoring information will be used within a management context. SDM should be used to complete the analysis of salt marsh management decisions. The next steps would involve 1) prioritizing and weighting the management objectives; 2) predicting responses to individual management actions in terms of objectives and metrics; 3) using multiattribute utility theory to convert all measurable attributes to a common utility scale; 4) determining the total management benefit of each action by summing utilities across objectives; and 5) maximizing the total management benefits within cost constraints for each refuge. This process would allow the optimum management decisions for NWRS salt marshes to be selected and implemented based directly on monitoring data and current understanding of marsh responses to management actions. Monitoring the outcome of management actions would then allow new monitoring data to be incorporated into subsequent decisions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New J↗

USGS2012

Identifying potential areas for biofuel production and evaluating the environmental effects: a case study of the James River Basin in the Midwestern United States

Biofuels are now an important resource in the United States because of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Both increased corn growth for ethanol production and perennial dedicated energy crop growth for cellulosic feedstocks are potential sources to meet the rising demand for biofuels. However, these measures may cause adverse environmental consequences that are not yet fully understood. This study 1) evaluates the long-term impacts of increased frequency of corn in the crop rotation system on water quantity and quality as well as soil fertility in the James River Basin and 2) identifies potential grasslands for cultivating bioenergy crops (e.g. switchgrass), estimating the water quality impacts. We selected the soil and water assessment tool, a physically based multidisciplinary model, as the modeling approach to simulate a series of biofuel production scenarios involving crop rotation and land cover changes. The model simulations with different crop rotation scenarios indicate that decreases in water yield and soil nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 -N) concentration along with an increase in NO 3 -N load to stream water could justify serious concerns regarding increased corn rotations in this basin. Simulations with land cover change scenarios helped us spatially classify the grasslands in terms of biomass productivity and nitrogen loads, and we further derived the relationship of biomass production targets and the resulting nitrogen loads against switchgrass planting acreages. The suggested economically efficient (planting acreage) and environmentally friendly (water quality) planting locations and acreages can be a valuable guide for cultivating switchgrass in this basin. This information, along with the projected environmental costs (i.e. reduced water yield and increased nitrogen load), can contribute to decision support tools for land managers to seek the sustainability of biofuel development in this region.

Missouri↗

USGS2018

Calibration of a field-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with field placement of best management practices in Alger Creek, Michigan

Subwatersheds within the Great Lakes “Priority Watersheds” were targeted by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) to determine the effectiveness of the various best management practices (BMPs) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service National Conservation Planning (NCP) Database. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is created for Alger Creek, a 50 km 2 tributary watershed to the Saginaw River in Michigan. Monthly calibration yielded very good Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ratings for flow, sediment, total phosphorus (TP), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), and total nitrogen (TN) (0.90, 0.79, 0.87, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively), and satisfactory NSE rating for nitrate (0.51). Two-year validation results in at least satisfactory NSE ratings for flow, sediment, TP, DRP, and TN (0.83, 0.54, 0.73, 0.53, and 0.60, respectively), and unsatisfactory NSE rating for nitrate (0.28). The model estimates the effect of BMPs at the field and watershed scales. At the field-scale, the most effective single practice at reducing sediment, TP, and DRP is no-tillage followed by cover crops (CC); CC are the most effective single practice at reducing nitrate. The most effective BMP combinations include filter strips, which can have a sizable effect on reducing sediment and phosphorus loads. At the watershed scale, model results indicate current NCP BMPs result in minimal sediment and nutrient reductions (<10%).

Michigan↗

USGS2021

Species mixture effects and climate influence growth, recruitment and mortality in Interior West USA Populus tremuloides-conifer communities

Tree-species mixture effects (e.g. complementarity and facilitation) have been found to increase individual-tree productivity, lessen mortality and improve recruitment in forests worldwide. By promoting more efficient and complete resource use, mixture effects may also lessen individual-tree-level water stress, thus improving drought resistance. We investigated the influence of mixture effects on tree productivity, mortality and recruitment across broad compositional and moisture gradients in high-elevation Interior West US mixed-conifer communities, where Populus tremuloides (trembling aspen) is the major contributor to functional diversity. Our goal was to provide a more complete scientific foundation for managing these drought-prone, fire-excluded systems under an uncertain climate. We used landscape-scale national forest inventory data to examine mixture effects on P. tremuloides and the major associated conifer species, Pseudotsuga menziesii , Pinus contorta , Abies lasiocarpa and Picea engelmannii . Using generalized linear mixed modelling, we isolated the influences of P. tremuloides relative density and climate on tree-level (stems ≥ 12.7 cm DBH) growth, mortality and stand-level recruitment (presence/absence of new trees). Cold-season precipitation (PPT) and warm-season vapour pressure deficit (VPD) served to represent soil moisture supply and demand, respectively. Populus tremuloides growth declined as interspecific density increased. In contrast, Pinus contorta and A. lasiocarpa growth increased with P. tremuloides density. For all species except A. lasiocarpa and P. menziesii, growth increased under higher PPT and VPD. Populus tremuloides mortality increased under high VPD but not with interspecific relative density. We found limited evidence that A. lasiocarpa mortality decreased as P. tremuloides density increased. Populus tremuloides recruitment declined steeply above 25% interspecific relative density. We found a decline in conifer recruitment odds as P. tremuloides density increased, ranging from strong in P. contorta to insubstantial in P. engelmannii . Synthesis . Our findings have implications for sustaining mixed-conifer communities impacted by climate change and historical fire exclusion. Mixtures of P. tremuloides and conifers may improve conifer growth while adversely impacting P. tremuloides growth relative to pure stands. Higher conifer productivity combined with lower P. tremuloides recruitment at high conifer relative density may accelerate succession.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2000

Sustainable-yield estimation for the Sparta Aquifer in Union County, Arkansas

Options for utilizing alternative sources of water to alleviate overdraft from the Sparta aquifer and ensure that the aquifer can continue to provide abundant water of excellent quality for the future are being evaluated by water managers in Union County. Sustainable yield is a critical element in identifying and designing viable water supply alternatives. With sustainable yield defined and a knowledge of total water demand in an area, any unmet demand can be calculated. The ground-water flow model of the Sparta aquifer was used to estimate sustainable yield using an iterative approach. The Sparta aquifer is a confined aquifer of regional importance that comprises a sequence of unconsolidated sand units that are contained within the Sparta Sand. Currently, the rate of withdrawal in some areas greatly exceeds the rate of recharge to the aquifer and considerable water-level declines have occurred. Ground-water flow model results indicate that the aquifer cannot continue to meet growing water-use demands indefinitely and that water levels will drop below the top of the primary producing sand unit in Union County (locally termed the El Dorado sand) by 2008 if current water-use trends continue. Declines of that magnitude will initiate dewatering of the El Dorado sand. The sustainable yield of the aquifer was calculated by targeting a specified minimum acceptable water level within Union County and varying Union County pumpage within the model to achieve the target water level. Selection of the minimum target water level for sustainable-yield estimation was an important criterion for the modeling effort. In keeping with the State Critical Ground-Water Area designation criteria and the desire of water managers in Union County to improve aquifer conditions and bring the area out of the Critical Ground-Water Area designation, the approximate altitude of the top of the Sparta Sand in central Union County was used as the minimum water level target for estimation of sustainable yield in the county. A specific category of sustainable yield? stabilization yield, reflecting the amount of water that the aquifer can provide while maintaining current water levels? also was determined and provides information for short-term management. The top of the primary producing sand unit (the El Dorado sand) was used as the minimum water-level target for estimating stabilization yield in the county because current minimum water levels in central Union County are near the top of the El Dorado sand. Model results show that withdrawals from the Sparta aquifer in Union County must be reduced to 28 percent of 1997 values to achieve sustainable yield and maintain water levels at the top of the Sparta Sand if future pumpage outside of Union County is assumed to increase at the rate observed from 1985-1997. Results of the simulation define a very large current unmet demand and represent a substantial reduction in the county?s current dependence upon the aquifer. If future pumpage outside of Union County is assumed to increase at double the rate observed from 1985-1997, withdrawals from the Sparta aquifer in Union County must be reduced to 25 percent of 1997 values to achieve sustainable yield. Withdrawals from the Sparta aquifer in Union County must be reduced to about 88 to 91 percent (depending on pumpage growth outside of the county) of 1997 values to stabilize water levels at the top of the El Dorado sand. This result shows that 1997 rate of withdrawal in the county is considerably greater than the rate needed to halt the rapid decline in water levels.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗