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USGS2025

Meet the people where they are: Assessing user needs for aftershock forecast products in El Salvador, Mexico and the United States

Aftershock forecasts can help communities reduce their seismic risk by conveying how many aftershocks can be expected following a large earthquake, and how the expected number of aftershocks and their corresponding ground shaking evolves over time and space. Prior work finds that graphical forecast products may communicate such information better than only text or numbers. To identify which visual products can serve multiple user groups, we held workshops with members of several professions, including emergency managers, engineers, critical infrastructure operators, public health specialists, science communicators, and more. We conducted these workshops in El Salvador, Mexico and the United States to understand which forecast products may be effective across different countries. In these workshops, users performed small-group activities to elicit the types of aftershock forecast information that would support decisions in their respective roles and how this information would optimally be displayed. Maps of shaking hazards were frequently requested across all professions and countries, even for dissimilar forecast uses. The design of these maps, and other product needs, were differentiated by profession, country and other factors. Other forecast products, including those showing forecasts about the magnitudes and time periods of future aftershocks, also served a variety of users, but for different types of decisions. We found a greater variation in user needs by profession than by country, and that user needs also vary with time, communication channel and other contextual factors. We discuss practical implications for user-centered visual communication of operational aftershock forecasts.

International Journal for Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2025

Comparisons of shoreline positions from satellite-derived and traditional field- and remote-sensing techniques

Satellite-derived shorelines (SDS) have the potential to help researchers answer critical coastal science questions and support work to predict coastal change by filling in the spatial and temporal gaps present in current field-based and remote-sensing data collection methods. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted comparison analyses of traditionally sourced shorelines and SDS in diverse coastal landscapes to determine how SDS could be used in ongoing and future work across varied coastal environments and provided some initial findings that could be used for implementation. Using CoastSeg, a browser-based program for SDS detection and mapping, SDS for the period 1984–2023 for multiple locations across the United States were compared to shoreline positions from traditionally sourced shoreline data. In this report, the authors present these comparisons alongside lessons learned and challenges encountered when building SDS workflows in different coastal locations. Results show that individual SDS have larger uncertainty and yet produced similar linear trends to sparser, traditionally sourced shoreline data; because SDS methods provide orders of magnitude more data than traditional shoreline-detection methods, they can be used to evaluate shoreline behaviors. Refining average scalar slopes used in tidal corrections did not result in substantial decreases in uncertainty. Using lessons from this work to outline needs for regional implementation, initial setup time would be considerable, being on the order of weeks. However, once complete, shoreline detections and analyses are fast (on the order of minutes to hours) and achievable using a desktop computer.

Alaska, Florida, Massachusetts, Washington↗

USGS2026

Altitude of the potentiometric surface and depth to water in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, spring 2024

Potentiometric-surface and depth-to-water maps for spring 2024 were created for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer using groundwater-altitude data from 1,151 wells completed in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer and from the altitude of the top of the water surface in area rivers from 160 U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers streamgages. The potentiometric-surface and depth-to-water maps for 2024 were created to support investigations to characterize the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program. Sufficient data were available to map the potentiometric surface and depth to water of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer for spring 2024 for about 83 percent of the aquifer area. The potentiometric contours ranged from 0 to 330 feet (ft) above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988. The regional direction of the groundwater gradient was generally to the south-southwest, except in areas of groundwater-altitude depressions, where the groundwater gradient direction was into the depression, and near rivers, where the groundwater gradient direction was either from the aquifer to the river or from the river into the aquifer. Groundwater depressions in the potentiometric-surface map are in the lower one-half of the Cache region and in most of the Grand Prairie and Delta regions. Depth to water by well in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in spring 2024 ranged from 0.27 ft above land surface to 145.65 ft below land surface.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗

USGS2025

A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective

We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly important for shorter-term hazard and risk considerations (e.g., earthquake insurance products). We also discuss the importance and perennial challenges associated with quantifying epistemic uncertainties, including those associated with deformation-model slip rates, un-quantified sampling errors with respect to off-fault seismicity, and any spatial covariances. The need for more physics-based approaches is also emphasized, as is the benefit of adding model valuation (quantifying usefulness) to our verification and validation protocols. Given the multidisciplinary and system-level nature of this activity, modular design is critical. Future updates will also draw from best-available science by both the United States Geological Survey and the external community. The primary goal of this paper is to highlight plans that guide research and facilitate community engagement with model development, especially with respect to lowering the entry barrier for early career scientists and engineers. The paper is written so readers can focus on the sections that interest them most (see table of contents), with the Introduction and Discussion providing a stand-alone overview and summary.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2024

Introduction to recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States

Introduction The National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) was authorized and partially funded by the U.S. Government in 2019. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program asked its scientists to reflect on and summarize their views of best practices for volcano monitoring. The goal was to review and update the recommendations of a previous report (Moran and others, 2008) and to provide a more detailed analysis of capabilities and instrumentation for monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. This Scientific Investigations Report and its chapters reflect those USGS scientists’ views and summaries and will serve as a guide for future network upgrades funded through NVEWS. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to population centers and aviation (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989; Neal and others, 1997, 2019; Guffanti and others, 2010; Shroder and Papale, 2014; Prata and Rose, 2015; Palmer, 2020), volcano monitoring is critical for ensuring public safety and for mitigating the impacts of volcanic activity. Accurate and timely forecasts are facilitated by well-designed monitoring networks that are in place long enough to allow for background behavior to be recognized and understood. Because precursory signals may be limited and unrest may progress rapidly to an eruption, our goal is to deploy monitoring systems that enable detection of the reactivation of dormant volcanoes as early as possible, allowing for public safety and risk mitigation. NVEWS planning is also informed by the results of Ewert and others (2005, 2018), whereby 161 U.S. volcanoes are currently categorized and ranked commensurate with their relative threat. In each chapter, author(s) considered the need for some redundancy of instrumentation and telemetry, given the likelihood of occasional equipment failure, particularly in extreme and remote environments. Establishing digital telemetry networks requires advanced planning, sighting, radio-shot testing, and, inevitably, troubleshooting in the field. This is harder to achieve rapidly during a crisis; thus, an important goal for monitoring U.S. volcanoes is to establish digital telemetry backbones with redundancy and extra capacity to absorb additional instruments should a volcano begin to exhibit signs of unrest (fig. A1). The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) imposed new regulations in the United States, eliminating the use of older analog radios for many purposes, which had been one previous means for redundant data delivery. However, the resulting conversion from analog to digital systems usefully enables stations to accommodate new and multivariate real-time data streams (for example, Global Navigation Satellite System [GNSS] receivers, infrasound arrays, gas spectrometers, visible and infrared cameras, and broadband seismometers). We note that other USGS and broader national and international hazard programs can leverage NVEWS instrumentation plans. Examples of this include the following: Improved seismic coverage of volcanoes will increase the capability of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program to detect and locate earthquakes, estimate ground shaking, and provide timely early warnings through the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System (Given and others, 2018). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Tsunami Program will benefit from additional seismic stations, particularly within the sparsely instrumented Aleutian Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa. Infrasound stations can detect signals from landslides, debris flows and lahars, floods, and weather events, providing benefits to the National Weather Service and the USGS Landslide Hazards Program.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Characterizing Meteor Crater impact melts through geochemistry and textural analysis

The U.S. Geological Survey Astrogeology Science Center houses the Meteor Crater sample collection, an assemblage of over 2,500 meters of cuttings from 161 drill holes into Meteor Crater’s rim, flanks, and ejecta blanket. We have utilized this unique collection to study the composition and spatial distribution of impact-generated materials from within the ejecta blanket. Meteor Crater has historically been known to have generated only a relatively small amount of impact melt compared to other terrestrial craters of similar size. A detailed compositional and textural dataset of impact-derived melts from this impact can therefore be a useful asset in improving our understanding of crater formation, and in particular impact melt formation. We have characterized 42 impact-melt particles from Meteor Crater using a scanning electron microscope and an electron microprobe for textural and compositional analysis. We analyzed samples from six drill holes in the ejecta blanket, situated to the northwest, southeast, south, and southwest of the crater (ejecta northeast of the crater is devoid of impact melts). Impact melts were collected from drill cuttings at various depths within the ejecta blanket, ranging from a few centimeters below the surface down to ~6.5 meters. Backscattered electron (BSE) images were acquired for each analyzed impact-melt particle. To characterize the various textures and phases present in each impact melt, we also took many detailed BSE images. Our geochemical analyses include full spectral profiles using energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry and well-calibrated wavelength dispersive spectrometry for a number of phases, including minerals (olivine, pyroxene, and so on), pristine glass, and metallic inclusions. The full dataset is available in ScienceBase as a data release (Gullikson and others, 2024), accessible at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9OGAJ8P . Our goal for this Open-File Report is to provide a summary of this immense dataset, details on data collection, descriptions of the different phases observed within impact-melt particles (both geochemically and texturally), and observable trends.

Arizona↗

USGS2024

Identifying transportation data and system needs for a Federal lands transportation data platform

Executive Summary Modern transportation and land-use planning efforts include information from many sources to address topics such as safety, efficiency, commercial, and social needs. This wide breadth of topics provides opportunities for collaboration and development of common tools for diverse users. In many cases, different information systems provide the spatial data and geographic content necessary for transportation and land-use planners to consider multiple lines of evidence. The Federal Highway Administration Office of Federal Lands Highway (FLH) and Federal Land Management Agency partners use detailed spatial and quantitative data to inform transportation decisions. However, logistic challenges to data sharing exist because data are often managed by separate agencies; data-exchange frameworks and interagency data agreements are insufficient; and consistency from aggregated data requires maintenance, coordination, and supporting infrastructure. The FLH and U.S. Geological Survey collaboratively examined (1) use and availability of spatial data for transportation planning and (2) a possible mechanism to use more shared and consistent data in a common planning environment. The goals of this collaborative effort were to describe data needs from the perspective of planners and to identify opportunities for shared data resources. Results presented here focus on two workshops and a subsequent investigation of data and tools available from partner agencies. The objectives of this report are to (1) describe information used in transportation planning with geographic data; (2) identify spatially explicit data that inform transportation plans and could be shared among all partners; and (3) describe current platforms, planning and administrative opportunities, and potential barriers to developing an integrated planning tool. Key information and data needs were identified in three major classes: system, user, and influential factors. System data are parts of the transportation network and information about the condition of individual segments and the network. User data provide details about the function of the system and insights into potential needs; for example, user trips between source and destinations inform road and network demands that can lead to congestion and safety issues (in the future, user data might also include scenarios and projections based on land-use plans). Influential data represent social and environmental factors that influence transit demands and network conditions. These factors could be popular locations or seasonal events that influence demand and congestion; wildlife habitat or migration intersections that affect safety and management priorities; or geologic features that influence hazards, maintenance, and safety. Responses described here provide specific information for web-tool design and give a framework for interagency communication and cooperation to address specific information needs for integrated planning. Existing web-mapping and web-services, and the data that inform them, are also described. Commonly, these data are created and published by one agency, and the core users are outside of that agency; for example, threatened species distributions are published by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for consideration by planners in advance of National Environmental Policy Act (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.) evaluation. This report is provided to inform FLH leaders and Federal Land Management Agency partners by articulating user needs and requirements for integrated planning tool(s). Programmers creating a secure web-based data-sharing platform (with data-viewing, -analysis and -download functions) can use the information presented here to organize data and user interfaces. This integrated perspective can help FLH and Federal Land Management Agency partners develop transportation networks that better serve the needs of people in local communities and across States and the Nation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

On-orbit calibration and performance of the EMIT imaging spectrometer

The Earth surface Mineral dust source InvesTigation (EMIT) is a remote visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometer that has been operating onboard the International Space Station since July 2022. This article describes EMIT's on-orbit spectroradiometric calibration and validation. Accurate spectroscopy is vital to achieve consistent mapping results with orbital imaging spectrometers. EMIT takes a unique approach to this challenge, with just six optical elements, no shutter, and no onboard calibration systems. Its simple design focuses on uniformity and stability to enable vicarious spectroradiometric calibration. Our experiments demonstrate that this approach is successful, approaching the fidelity of manual field spectroscopy in some cases, and enabling new and more accurate products across diverse Earth science disciplines. EMIT achieves several notable firsts for an instrument of its class. It demonstrates successful on-orbit adjustments of Focal Plane Array (FPA) alignment with sub-micron precision. It offers spectral uniformity better than 98%. Optical artifacts in the measurement channels are at least three orders of magnitude below the primary solar-reflected surface signals. Its noise performance enables percent-level discrimination in the depths of mineral absorption features. In these aspects, EMIT satisfies the stringent performance needs for the next generation of VSWIR imaging spectrometers to observe the Earth's ecosystems, geology , and water resources.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2024

Plan to coordinate post-earthquake investigations supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)

Introduction This report presents a plan supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) to coordinate domestic and international post-earthquake investigations (herein called “the Plan”). Post-earthquake scientific and engineering investigations are undertaken to capture critical information to understand the causes and impacts of the event, lessons from which can substantially improve the Nation’s resilience after future earthquakes. NEHRP is the Federal Government’s coordinated nationwide program to reduce risks to life and property from earthquakes. The Plan describes the activation and coordination of the four designated NEHRP Agencies in the Federal Government: Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Institute of Standards and Technology, U.S. National Science Foundation, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The Plan also describes coordination between NEHRP Agencies and other organizations that may participate in pre-event and post-earthquake investigations, including non-NEHRP Federal agencies; State, regional, local, Tribal, and territorial agencies; domestic nongovernmental organizations; academic institutions and affiliated organizations; private companies; foreign governmental agencies and nongovernmental organizations; and international organizations. The Plan delineates the coordination of NEHRP post-earthquake scientific and engineering investigations to document the direct, indirect, and cascading physical and societal impacts from fault rupture and ground shaking hazards and from secondary hazards such as landslides, liquefaction, and tsunamis. In addition, the Plan identifies pre-event activities necessary to ensure that post-earthquake investigations are executed effectively. The USGS is the lead NEHRP Agency for activating and coordinating NEHRP post-earthquake investigations and for implementing this Plan. The USGS also leads coordination of the NEHRP Agencies in completing the pre-event activities identified in the Plan. The Plan has new information and supersedes USGS Circular 1242, “The Plan to Coordinate NEHRP Post-Earthquake Investigations,” which was published in 2003. This second-generation Plan was developed with the assistance of the Applied Technology Council (ATC) of Redwood City, California, under USGS contract 140G0121P0309, ATC-155. A 17-member Project Review Panel provided guidance on plan development, and input was solicited from subject matter experts representing key stakeholder groups and from participants at a public workshop.

Circular↗

USGS2026

Mountain goat declines in a protected, interior, native population

A shifting climate poses threats to alpine-adapted species including mountain goats. We used long-term (12 years) citizen science monitoring data and Bayesian N-mixture modeling to estimate population trends and drivers of population metrics among mountain goats in Glacier National Park (GNP). Median goats per site ( n = 37 sites) declined by 45% (95% credible interval [CRI] = 32%, 57%) from 77.8 (95% CRI = 64.4, 95.1) in 2008 to 42.3 (95% CRI = 34.3, 52.2) in 2019, with consistent declines from 2008 until 2015, when the number of estimated goats stabilized. The decline exceeds IUCN criteria for classifying a population as vulnerable, >30% declines over only two generations. Across years, relatively few goats occupied northwestern GNP. Goat numbers declined the most at northeastern sites, trended toward decline in most southern sites, and increased at only two west-central sites. The proportion of permanent snow and glaciers, the presence of natural mineral licks, and habituation strongly increased the initial abundance of goats in the area. Weather variables had the greatest influence on population growth rates, particularly precipitation between May 15 and June 15 of the previous summer, the neonatal period. Lower growth occurred with less snow water equivalent and lower mean winter temperature, early summer temperature, and early summer precipitation. Projected reductions of permanent snow, increasing spring and summer temperatures, and insufficient and variable spring precipitation raise concerns for the future of native goats in this region. Our analyses reveal ways to improve detection rates of goats during surveys, which is important for optimizing the precision of estimates and the power to detect future trends. Detection increased with goat habituation, retention of observers with experience, use of binoculars, and conducting surveys at lower temperatures and earlier dates. Improving detection will be particularly important given the lower number of goats currently observed in the park. Research to estimate park-wide population size, evaluate genetic structure and diversity, assess changing habitat, human recreation levels and forage, and forward-project climate effects on persistence will be crucial to understanding the context of these results and conserving this iconic, metapopulation at the southern edge of the distribution of native mountain goats.

Montana↗

USGS1976

Helium detection as a guide for uranium exploration

Helium, a byproduct of radioactive decay, may prove to be a valuable indicator of the presence and distribution of uranium deposits. Recent technological advances permit the development of instrumentation not previously adapted for this purpose. Commercially available equipment can provide high sensitivity at low cost and allow reasonable mobility for field use. A truck-mounted mass-spectrometer, tuned for helium-4, permits immediate adjustment or modification of sampling patterns in response to accumulating data. The inlet system of the spectrometer has been designed to allow flexibility in gas analyses from various sample types--soil gas, atmosphere, or gases in water. Sensitivity of the instrument is better than 50 parts of helium per 10 9 parts of gas. Replicate samples and standards can be analyzed in only 3 minutes. Helium in soil gas is being used for the initial evaluation of the technique. A hollow probe, as much as 2 m long, is driven into the ground; and a 10-cc syringe is used to purge the probe and extract the gas. This sample is then injected into the inlet system and introduced into the spectrometer at constant pressure. The output signal is displayed on a chart recorder. Investigations can be performed on a qualitative, relative basis, or on a quantitative basis by comparison to calibrated helium standards. Preliminary field testing includes studies of the responses to variations in wind speed, temperature, barometric pressure, moisture, and sampling depth over extended time periods, as well as studies of geologic controls on the helium content in soil gas. Surveys over known uranium occurrences reveal some anomalous helium distributions. This report describes an updated technological approach to an old idea: that of using helium, a byproduct of uranium radioactive decay, as an exploration tool for uranium. Helium is the sixth most abundant gas found in the earth's atmosphere (Table 1). It is an inert gas and very mobile, mixing rapidly. When the alpha particles from the radioactive decay of uranium and thorium pick up two electrons, atoms of the isotope helium-4 are formed. Several helium-4 atoms are produced from each decay series of U-238, U-235, and Th-232 (fig. 1). The half-lives of the parent isotopes are5also shown in figure 1. One gram of uranium will produce ~10 5 atoms of helium-4 per second, and one gram of thorium produces ~2.5 x 10 4 atoms of helium-4 per second (fig. 2). Calculations of the helium produced from the crust and mantle reveal that 1,125 x 10 30 atoms per year are produced, but only 7 x 10 30 atoms per year escape from the earth (Damon and Kulp, 1958). More is being produced than is being lost; in fact, the total atmospheric content of helium could be produced in only 2 million years (MacDonald, 1963)! However, all the crustal and mantle helium-4 does not degas into the atmosphere as it is formed. It is trapped in crystal lattices and in pore spaces within the earth. What this means is that there is excess helium-4 in the earth--excess, that is, compared to the atmospheric concentration in equilibrium with the helium-4 escape rate into space and the helium-4 flux from the crust and mantle (Nicolet, 1957). Near-surface pockets of high helium-4 concentrations are known, and some natural gas fields are so enriched that they are the source for commercial production of helium. Work by Roberts and others (1975) has shown high helium concentration in the soil gas associated with geothermal areas; and work by Clark and Kugler (1973), Dyck (1975), and Goldak (1974), for example, has noted high helium concentrations in soils and waters in the vicinity of uranium deposits. These latter studies certainly indicate the potential of helium detection for use as an exploration tool for uranium.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Overview of The SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress‐drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude‐spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress‐drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two‐week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. In this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite‐fault modeling, ground‐motion‐based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between‐method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress‐drop values.

California↗

USGS2024

Inset groundwater-flow models for the Cache and Grand Prairie Critical Groundwater Areas, northeastern Arkansas

The water resources in the Mississippi alluvial plain, located in parts of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas, supports a multibillion-dollar agricultural industry that relies heavily on pumping of groundwater for irrigation of crops and aquaculture. The primary source of groundwater for agricultural-related pumping is the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, which has declined in storage for decades; secondary groundwater sources include the middle Claiborne aquifer and Wilcox aquifer system. Two areas in northeastern Arkansas that lie within the Mississippi alluvial plain, part of the Cache and Grand Prairie regions, have been designated as Critical Groundwater Areas owing to decades of groundwater declines that resulted from past and current water use. The multidisciplinary Mississippi Alluvial Plain project, led by the U.S. Geological Survey, and funded by their Water Availability and Use Science Program, included objectives to develop numerical groundwater models in focus regions, including the part of the Cache and Grand Prairie regions of northeastern Arkansas. Two inset models were developed using the child model capabilities of MODFLOW 6, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Modular Hydrologic Model simulation software. Both models, called the Cache model and Grand Prairie model, simulated the groundwater system and surface-water/groundwater interactions for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer and underlying Tertiary-age aquifers and confining units to the Midway confining unit. Each model was spatially discretized into 500-meter x 500-meter orthogonal cells on a grid with 5-meter constant-thickness vertical layers that represented the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer and increasing thickness layers for the aquifers and confining units below the alluvial aquifer. The Cache and Grand Prairie models were calibrated with the PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother Version 5 and employed high dimensional parameterization schemes of 13,740 and 30,436 parameters, respectively. The Cache mean absolute residual for groundwater-level observations within each model domain for the priority well was 1.58 meters. Grand Prairie mean absolute residuals for the alluvial aquifer and middle Claiborne aquifer groundwater-level observations were 2.71 and 10.78 meters, respectively. The groundwater budgets for the Cache and Grand Prairie models were characterized by substantial outflows to irrigation wells, which constituted about 52 and 54 percent of all outflows, with the primary source of water to those wells being releases from unconfined aquifer storage.

Arkansas↗

USGS2024

The spatially adaptable filter for error reduction (SAFER) process: Remote sensing-based LANDFIRE disturbance mapping updates

LANDFIRE (LF) has been producing periodic spatially explicit vegetation change maps (i.e., LF disturbance products) across the entire United States since 1999 at a 30 m spatial resolution. These disturbance products include data products produced by various fire programs, field-mapped vegetation and fuel treatment activity (i.e., events) submissions from various agencies, and disturbances detected by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS)-based Remote Sensing of Landscape Change (RSLC) process. The RSLC process applies a bi-temporal change detection algorithm to Landsat satellite-based seasonal composites to generate the interim disturbances that are subsequently reviewed by analysts to reduce omission and commission errors before ingestion them into LF’s disturbance products. The latency of the disturbance product is contingent on timely data availability and analyst review. This work describes the development and integration of the Spatially Adaptable Filter for Error Reduction (SAFER) process and other error and latency reduction improvements to the RSLC process. SAFER is a random forest-based supervised classifier and uses predictor variables that are derived from multiple years of pre- and post-disturbance Landsat band observations. Predictor variables include reflectance, indices, and spatial contextual information. Spatial contextual information that is unique to each contiguous disturbance region is parameterized as Z scores using differential observations of the disturbed regions with its undisturbed neighbors. The SAFER process was prototyped for inclusion in the RSLC process over five regions within the conterminous United States (CONUS) and regional model performance, evaluated using 2016 data. Results show that the inclusion of the SAFER process increased the accuracies of the interim disturbance detections and thus has potential to reduce the time needed for analyst review. LF does not track the time taken by each analyst for each tile, and hence, the relative effort saved was parameterized as the percentage of 30 m pixels that are correctly classified in the SAFER outputs to the total number of pixels that are incorrectly classified in the interim disturbance and are presented. The SAFER prototype outputs showed that the relative analysts’ effort saved could be over 95%. The regional model performance evaluation showed that SAFER’s performance depended on the nature of disturbances and availability of cloud-free images relative to the time of disturbances. The accuracy estimates for CONUS were inferred by comparing the 2017 SAFER outputs to the 2017 analyst-reviewed data. As expected, the SAFER outputs had higher accuracies compared to the interim disturbances, and CONUS-wide relative effort saved was over 92%. The regional variation in the accuracies and effort saved are discussed in relation to the vegetation and disturbance type in each region. SAFER is now operationally integrated into the RSLC process, and LANDFIRE is well poised for annual updates, contingent on the availability of data.

Fire↗

USGS2023

Prediction of the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations at groundwater depths used for drinking-water supply in the Puget Sound basin, Washington, 2004–19

The Puget Sound basin encompasses the 13,700-square-mile area that drains to the Puget Sound and the adjacent marine waters of Washington State. Well more than 4 million people live within the basin, with numbers continuing to increase, who rely on the basin’s natural resources including groundwater. The Puget Sound Partnership was created by a Washington State statute to implement a science-based recovery of the Puget Sound to help address impacts to these resources. As part of the recovery, the partnership developed the Puget Sound Vital Signs as measures of ecosystem health that guide the assessment of progress toward Puget Sound recovery goals. The Puget Sound Partnership Leadership Council adopted a Drinking Water Vital Sign associated with human health and quality of life, recognizing certain indicators as integral to the sustainability of Puget Sound recovery efforts. One such Vital Sign indicator was the vulnerability of groundwater throughout the aquifers of the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations as defined by the probability of exceeding 2 milligrams/liter (mg/L) at a specific location and well depth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) led the effort to characterize groundwater vulnerability. For this study, groundwater vulnerability refers to a probability with which a contaminant applied at or near the land surface can migrate to the aquifer of interest for a given set of land-use practices. Nitrate concentration data were selected for evaluation because elevated nitrate concentrations are typically caused by anthropogenic activities and have been associated with deleterious impacts on human health. To identify groundwater vulnerability to elevated nitrate concentrations, logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (human associated) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in untreated groundwater from large public water supply system wells found within the Washington State Department of Health Sentry database. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, soil hydraulic conductivity, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, and land-use types. Statistically significant models that predicted the probabilities of groundwater nitrate concentrations greater than 2 mg/L based on the predictor variables were created for the time periods 2000–04, 2005–09, 2010–14, and 2015–19. For all time periods, well depth and a measure of the abundance of urban and agricultural land over or near the well consistently helped explain the vulnerability of the well to elevated nitrate concentrations defined as a probability of exceeding 2 mg/L of nitrate. Precipitation and (or) soil hydraulic conductivity were also important predictor variables in the models. The models for each time period were used to create maps of groundwater vulnerability at 150- and 300-foot depths throughout the Puget Sound basin. As expected, the most vulnerable locations were associated with shallower well depths and increased agriculture and urban land cover. Across all four time periods, groundwater vulnerability throughout the Puget Sound was low, with probabilities of exceeding 2 mg/L concentrations of nitrate at depths at 150 and 300 feet typically less than 50 percent. Results also found a slight decrease in probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations throughout the basin over time. More specifically, additional statistical tests found that groundwater with probabilities of less than about 60 percent declined from 2000 to 2019 and represented more than 75 percent of the modeled Puget Sound basin aquifer. Wells with greater than 60 percent probability increased over the same time period but represented only about 25 percent of the aquifer. The maps and statistical analysis presented in the study provide valuable and informative evaluation of the vulnerability of groundwater in the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations. The probability maps do not represent measured nitrate concentrations in groundwater, but rather they present the probability that nitrate concentrations exceed 2 mg/L. The models and predictions from this study are a viable indicator for the Puget Sound Partnership’s Healthy Human Population—Drinking Water Vital Sign. The logistic regression modeling approach presented here benefits water managers by allowing them to assess temporal trends in a range of probabilities, explore vulnerability changes as new regional land cover and anthropogenic data are generated, and distinguish vulnerabilities at different depths within the aquifer.

Washington↗

USGS1973

Geohydrology of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal area, with special reference to the Ocala vicinity

The Cross-Florida Barge Canal route commences at Palatka on the St. Johns River, about 75 miles upstream from the Atlantic Ocean, and extends 110 miles southwestward across Peninsular Florida into deep water in the Gulf of Mexico near Yankeetown. The canal will be equipped with five locks, each 600 feet long and 84 feet wide, and the channel will be a minimum of 12 feet deep and 150 feet wide. From near Ocala northeastward, the canal channel will replace much of the natural channel of the Oklawaha River, and will be excavated into beds of the so-called shallow sand aquifer of Miocene age and younger, which overlies limestone of the Floridan aquifer. Westward from Ocala, most of the canal will be excavated below the potentiometric surface into limestone and dolomite of the Floridan aquifer. Water levels of Rodman, Eureka, and Inglis Pools will be controlled by dams and spillways with the limited exchange of water between the pools and the aquifers. The water levels in the Summit Pools will fluctuate with the natural changes in the ground-water level of the Floridan aquifer, although the stage of the pool will be controlled partly by the stage held in the Eureka Pool. A dynamic inflow-outflow relationship will exist between the Summit Pool and the Floridan aquifer. The Floridan aquifer in the canal area is 1,000 to 1,200 feet thick and consists of limestone and dolomite of middle Eocene Miocene age, including from older to younger, the Lake City, Avon Park, and Ocala limestones plus permeable sandy, dolomitic limestone in the lower part of the Hawthorn Formation. It is possible that most of the flow to the two major springs in the area occurs in the upper 100 feet or so of the aquifer in the Ocala Limestone. The aquifer is underlain by the Oldsmar limestone of early Eocene age and is overlain by sand, clayey sand, clay and shell beds of Miocene through Holocene age, in thickness from a few feet to 300 feet. The permeable beds overlying the Floridan aquifer constitute the shallow aquifer, while the poorly permeable ones act as confining beds where the Floridan aquifer is under artesian conditions. A north-south line drawn separating the head of Silver Springs on the west from the Oklawaha River on the east marks the approximate western limit of a continuous blanket of materials of Miocene-Pliocene(?) age covering the rocks of the Floridan aquifer. East of the line, much of the aquifer is under artesian conditions, particularly in the Oklawaha River valley, although in some areas east of the valley, direct recharge through thick permeable Miocene-Pliocene(?) sands occurs. West of the line, only scattered remnants of a once continuous Miocene-Pliocene(?) cover remain. Lack of the cover is a result of erosion on the crest and flank of the Ocala Uplift, a broad northwest-southeast trending anticlinal upwarp, the axis of which is crossed by the canal route in the Dunnellon area. Over most of this area the Floridan aquifer is unconfined and receives direct recharge through a cover of a few tens of feet of sand and clayey sand of Quaternary age. Tensional stresses during the structural evolution of the Ocala Uplift produced an intersecting system of fractures and normal faults in rocks of the Floridan aquifer. The fractures and faults are important controls for orientation of solution channels and, therefore, for development of ground-water circulation patterns. When the system surface streams, which once drained the Barge Canal area, eroded the poorly permeable Miocene-Pliocene(?) cover from the flanks of the Ocala Uplift, surface runoff was reduced and precipitation began to directly infiltrate the underlying limestones. Now only principal streams remain, such as the Oklawaha and Withlacoochee Rivers and a few short tributaries, while one of the most highly developed subsurface drainage systems in the world has evolved in cavernous limestone of the Floridan aquifer. Two of the larger freshwater springs in the world now discharge from the Floridan aquifer in the canal area. Silver Springs near Ocala discharges an average 531 mgd (million gallons per day) down the 4-mile long Silver River, which flows on poorly permeable beds to the Oklawaha River. Rainbow Springs near Dunnellon discharges on average 468 mgd from numerous orifices in the bed of the 5-mile-long Rainbow River, which flows into the Withlacoochee River. The heads of the springs have migrated to their present positions partly because of a tendency of ground-water levels to decline as permeability in the aquifer is increased due to removal of limestone by solution, and because of mechanical erosion of the limestone in the vicinity of the spring heads. Also, points of principal spring discharges have shifted in the past due to changes in ground-water levels in response to changes in sea level. The subsurface drainage system is continuing to evolve today, as evidenced in part by frequent occurrence of new sinkholes and by the presence of significant amounts of calcium bicarbonate in the spring waters. Rodman Pool, at the east end of the canal, is separated from the Floridan aquifer by poorly permeable materials. The pool's operating water level will be only a few feet above the potentiometric surface at the downstream end, and at or slightly below the potentiometric surface at the upstream end. Little exchange of water between the Rodman Pool and the Floridan aquifer is expected. Eureka Pool, just upstream from Rodman Pool, will also be separated from the Floridan aquifer by poorly permeable beds. However, the stage of the pool will be about 15 feet higher than the natural potentiometric surface at the pool's downstream end, and some seepage into the Floridan aquifer is anticipated through faults and leaky parts of the poorly permeable beds, with a consequent rise in ground-water levels in areas adjacent to the lower end of the pool. Possibilities for particulate contamination of the aquifer will tend to be minimized because of the filtering capacity of the materials through which water must pass to reach the aquifer, although the natural filter will not preclude movement into the aquifer of contaminants which might become dissolved in the pool waters. No significant interchange of water between the pool and the aquifer is expected at the upstream end of the Eureka Pool. Present construction plans indicate an operating stage for Eureka Pool which will range between 38 and 40 feet above mean sea level, although it is possible to dredge the pool deep enough to permit a range in stage of 36 to 40 feet. A backwater effect extending up Silver River from the Eureka Pool is expected to regulate the stage at the head of Silver Springs between 39 and 44 feet above mean sea level if the pool ranges between 36 and 40 feet. If Eureka Pool ranges only between 38 and 40 feet, the range of stage at the head of the springs should be about 41 to 44 feet above mean sea level. From Inglis Lock west, the canal will have direct connection with the Gulf, and canal stage will fluctuate with the Gulf tide. Since the canal stage will be slightly lower than the adjacent ground-water levels along much of the reach, there will be some ground-water inflow to the canal. No significant changes in the existing ground-water regime are expected in the vicinity of Inglis Pool, the first step up in the canal east of the Gulf. Existing ground-water and surface-water levels in the area will not change appreciable, and the natural stage and flow of Rainbow Springs, which will flow by way of Rainbow River into Inglis Pool, should not be affected by canal operations. A possible adverse effect of the canal on the Inglis Pool area could result if sea water is locked up from the Gulf through Inglis Lock. However, the high step of 25 feet at the lock, flushing action of continuous flow from Inglis Pool to the lower reaches of the Withlacoochee River, and use of possible preventive locking procedures should minimize the problem. The potential for adverse effects on the ground-water regime is greatest in the area of the Summit Pool. Through most of the length of the pool, the canal channel will be excavated into limestone of the Floridan aquifer to depths of 12 to 27 feet below the potentiometric surface. Changes that will take place in the ground-water flow system in the Silver Springs drainage area, once the canal is completed, were estimated by flow-net analysis. Variation in aquifer transmissivity was determined by calculating transmissivity in 25 different flow cells surrounding Silver Springs. Transmissivity in the 25 cells averages about 15,600,000 gpd/ft [2,090,000 ft2/day (feet squared)], but transmissivity in the six cells through which the Summit Pool passes ranges from 9,000,000 to 44,000,000 gpd/ft (1,210,000 to 5,900,000 ft2/day). Transmissivity was used to compute static stage of the Summit Pool under given ground-water level conditions. Had the canal existed in May 1968 and had the stage of Eureka Pool been held at 36 feet at the time, the static stage in Summit Pool would have been about 42.1 feet above mean sea level. Thus, a conceptual model of the changes in the potentiometric surface wrought by the finished canal was drawn, and zones of ground-water inflow and outflow were delineated. Most outflow from the Summit Pool to the aquifer should be limited to one 4-mile-long zone along the north side of the pool, about 5 miles south of Silver Springs. It is estimated that a water volume equivalent to about 8 percent of the daily flow of Silver Springs will enter the Summit Pool each day from the southern one-third of the Silver Springs drainage area. A like amount will reenter the aquifer at the main zone of outflow and move toward Silver Springs at an estimated average velocity of about 200 feet per day, if something close to the natural static stage of the pool is maintained by return pumpage of the lockage losses. At a velocity of 200 feet per day, water from the Summit Pool would discharge at Silver Springs about 140 days later. However, any estimate of velocity in the highly cavernous limestone aquifer in the area should be used with caution, because difficult to measure changes in porosity and thickness of major zones of flow may cause large variations in velocity. If all lockage losses are returned to the Summit Pool by pumping from Eureka Pool, no net loss from the Silver Springs drainage area, except for some evaporation from the water surface in the canal and possible leakage around locks, will result from canal operations. The zone of outflow from the Summit Pool to the aquifer will be in a natural potentiometric trough, and the zone of inflow will be in a potentiometric ridge area. The equilibrium water level in the pool will tend to be about 1 foot higher than the altitude of the lowest level in the pre-canal potentiometric trough, and about 2 feet lower than the highest level on the pre-canal potentiometric ridge. West of the Silver Springs drainage area just east of Dunnellon Lock, in the area of a local potentiometric high, the water level in the Summit Pool is expected to be about 15 feet below the natural potentiometric surface. In most areas 2 to 3 miles away from the Summit Pool, effects of the canal on the natural potentiometric surface should be slight. The stage of the Summit Pool, judging from the 36-year record for ground-water level changes and the anticipated indirect effect of the controlled stage in Eureka Pool, should have a maximum of about 10.5 feet with a maximum water level of about 51.5 feet above mean sea level and a minimum of about 41.0 feet above mean sea level. Of particular importance in the Summit Pool is an implementation of well planned construction and operational procedures designed to minimize risks of ground-water contamination.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Streams, springs, and volcanic lakes for volcano monitoring

Introduction Volcanic unrest can trigger appreciable change to surface waters such as streams, springs, and volcanic lakes. Magma degassing produces gases and soluble salts that are absorbed into groundwater that feeds streams and lakes. As magma ascends, the amount of heat and degassing will increase, and so will any related geochemical and thermal signal. Subsurface magma movement can cause pressurization that alters hydrostatic head and may induce groundwater discharge. Fluid-pressure changes have been linked to distal volcano-tectonic earthquakes (White and McCausland, 2016; Coulon and others, 2017) and phreatic eruptions (for example, Yamaoka and others, 2016). Clearly, changes in groundwater and surface waters are both indicators of unrest and clues to how and where magma is rising toward the surface. Where possible, it is prudent to incorporate real-time hydrologic data into multiparameter monitoring of restless volcanoes. Hydrologic dynamics can also be tracked by changes in groundwater levels that are commonly measured in shallow boreholes (see of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–K, 5 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062k. ">chapter K , this volume, on boreholes; Hurwitz and Lowenstern, 2024). Although inferred to be common, relatively few volcano-hydrology anomalies are well documented, and many are essentially anecdotal (Newhall and others, 2001), reflecting the fact that high-resolution time series remain rare. Extreme examples include the 2008 eruption of Nevado del Huila, Colombia, where relatively minor phreatomagmatic eruptions were accompanied by expulsion of as much as 300 million cubic meters of groundwater from fissures high on the volcano (Worni and others, 2011), generating large lahars. Substantial decreases in flow rate from springs about 8 kilometers from the summit of Mayon Volcano, Philippines, have been noted before most eruptions in the 20th century (Newhall and others, 2001). Stream monitoring at Redoubt Volcano in 2009 allowed Werner and others (2012) to recognize that groundwater was unable to absorb (or scrub) the high flux of volcanic gas and that a high CO 2 /SO 2 precursor signal had been evident for 5 months prior to the eruption. A key to better interpreting hydrologic anomalies—or even identifying them—is therefore obtaining adequate baseline data. Most hydrologic monitoring at U.S. volcanoes has been accomplished by intermittent sampling surveys with annual or less frequent sampling (for example, https://hotspringchem.wr.usgs.gov/index.php ). More frequent sampling, however, generally is needed to establish reliable baselines. A recent hydrologic and hydrothermal monitoring experiment at 25 sites and 10 of the 12 level 4 (very high threat) volcanoes in the U.S. portion of the Cascade Range demonstrated that there is sufficient temporal variability in hydrothermal fluxes, even during quiescent periods, that one-time measurements will commonly have limited interpretive value (Crankshaw and others, 2018). Thus, surveys are best augmented with data from streamgages (for example, Evans and others, 2004; Bergfeld and others, 2008). Streamflow (water discharge) data allow measured temperature and specific conductance to be converted to heat and solute mass fluxes, which could be insightful parameters for detecting anomalous activity (McCleskey and others, 2012). At the Yellowstone Caldera, long-term monitoring of river solutes has allowed calculation of the chloride flux, a proxy for heat discharge (Hurwitz and others, 2007; McCleskey and others, 2016) from the subsurface magma. This is readily accomplished because data from streamgages are continuously recorded and archived by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) (USGS, 2024). Similar studies on stratovolcanoes or shield volcanoes would be scientifically useful, and yet are logistically challenging, requiring streamgages on numerous radial drainages complemented by either frequent manual sampling or numerous deployments of equipment to measure water temperature and specific conductance as a proxy for water chemistry. Another challenge is that some volcanic areas, especially shield volcanoes, are characterized by near-surface porous rocks and soils, such that surface streams are rare and replaced by distant, dilute large-volume springs with only a trace of any original volcanically sourced water (Manga, 2001; Hurwitz and others, 2021). Volcanic lakes are worthy of special attention for monitoring efforts, as their temperature and composition can provide evidence of increased flux of volatile-rich fluids from below. Quantifying changes in volatile and heat release from magma can be simpler in lakes than for volcanoes with radial drainages and no major lakes. Moreover, volcanic lakes pose a range of hazards themselves, including phreatomagmatic eruptions, debris flows, flank collapse, tsunamis, and toxic gas release (Mastin and Witter, 2000; Delmelle and others, 2015; Manville, 2015; Rouwet and others, 2015)—hazards that have historically been responsible for substantial loss of life at many volcanoes worldwide (Manville, 2015). Catastrophic CO 2 release at Lake Nyos, Cameroon, in 1986 suffocated about 1,750 people and about 3,500 livestock and was probably triggered by a large landslide into the gas-saturated lake (Kling and others, 1987; Evans and others, 1993). Gas-charged springs in Soda Bay within Clear Lake (California) have caused almost a dozen deaths to bathers in the past hundred years (ABC News, 2000). A 2005 example of lake overturn and abundant gas release was documented at Mount Chiginagak in Alaska (Schaefer and others, 2008) but did not result in any human casualties. Although thermally stratified lakes, which promote trapping of exsolved magmatic gas, tend to develop in tropical regions, the phenomenon can also arise where salinity creates meromixis (a condition in which a lake does not mix completely), as occurs in Mono Lake, California (Jellison and Melack, 1993; Jellison and others, 1998). If magma erupts or flows into a lake, the interaction between hot magma and cold water can be explosive (Mastin and others, 2004; Zimanowski and others, 2015) and substantially expand the area affected by the eruption. Another hazard is the breaching of crater rims by landslides triggered by volcanic and (or) seismic activity. Under some circumstances, substantial volumes of water can be displaced, leading to large floods and lahars. Late Holocene lake flooding from Aniakchak Crater in the Alaska Peninsula (Waythomas, 2022) and from Paulina Lake in Newberry Crater, Oregon (Chitwood and Jensen, 2000), caused by the failure of outlet sills, testify to the substantial hazards at lake-filled calderas. Several volcanic systems in the United States host lakes known to receive heat and gas from underlying magma. These lakes vary widely in area, depth, and chemical composition. Lakes are present at level 4 volcanoes, including Crater Lake and Newberry Volcano in Oregon; Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming; Long Valley Caldera, Clear Lake volcanic field, Medicine Lake, and Salton Buttes in California; and Aniakchak Crater, Mount Katmai, Fisher Caldera, Mount Okmok, and Kaguyak Crater, among others, in Alaska. A water lake was present in Halemaʻumaʻu, the crater of Kīlauea, Hawai‘i (fig. F1), from October 2019 to December 2020. Level 3 volcanoes with lakes include Mono Lake volcanic field (Calif.), Mount Bachelor (Ore.), Ukinrek Maars and Mount Chiginagak (Alaska), and Soda Lake (Nevada). In addition, there are lakes at many levels 1 and 2 volcanoes. In the United States, there are no strongly acidic lakes that receive abundant input of magmatic gas, such as those found at Mount Ruapehu (New Zealand), Ijen and Kelud (Indonesia), and Poás (Costa Rica). Nevertheless, many contain fluids that provide clues to magmatic processes below. Since publication of a previous report on recommended instrumentation for volcano monitoring (Moran and others, 2008), continuous hydrologic monitoring has become increasingly feasible. However, changes in water pressure, temperature, and chemistry remain, in general, poorly studied phenomena at volcanoes (Sparks, 2003; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2017). Recent efforts by the USGS have included the temporary study of Cascade Range volcanoes, which included frequent (15 minute to hourly) temporal sampling of temperature, depth, and conductivity (Crankshaw and others, 2018; Ingebritsen and Evans, 2019). At Yellowstone Caldera, many streamgages have now added thermistors and specific conductance sensors, allowing estimation of time-dependent chloride flux as a proxy for variations in subsurface heat flux (McCleskey and others, 2012, 2016). Efforts to better understand lakes have also accelerated, with bathymetric mapping and sampling carried out at several locations in the United States. Especially thorough work was done at Yellowstone Lake thanks to the Hydrothermal Dynamics of Yellowstone Lake (HD-YLAKE, https://hdylake.org ) project, funded primarily by the National Science Foundation. In addition to geophysical surveys and recovery of cores and other samples, HD-YLAKE investigations included remotely operated vehicle (ROV) investigations of hydrothermal vents on the lake floor (fig. F2). Data collected by the ROV provided a better understanding of the thermal and chemical influx from lake-bottom hydrothermal systems (Sohn and others, 2017). In this chapter, we focus on detecting changes in the chemistry, temperature, discharge, or water levels of streams, springs, and lakes that can be caused by seismicity, volumetric strains, or increases in gas flux associated with ascending magma. There is unavoidable overlap with other chapters of this report. Samples of water and gas can also be obtained in boreholes ( of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–K, 5 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062k. ">chapter K , this volume; Hurwitz and Lowenstern, 2024), both shallow and deep. Gas monitoring ( of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–E, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062e.">chapter E , this volume; Lewicki and others, 2024) relies in part on samples from springs and wells, particularly where measurable gas plumes are absent. Water acts as a trigger and lubricant for landslides and sediment-rich floods, and so hydrology has obvious relevance for lahar monitoring, as discussed in of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–H, 6 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062h. ">chapter H (this volume; Thelen and others, 2024). Shared situational awareness among scientists engaged in geophysical, gas, and hydrologic monitoring will improve overall understanding of the volcanic hazard.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Estimated average annualized tsunami losses for the United States

Tsunami hazards are substantial threats to coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) and its territories. U.S. states and territories collaborate through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to develop their own tsunami-hazard information for outreach and evacuation planning. An effort to curate this tsunami-hazard information to support comprehensive risk analysis at the national level has not yet been completed. In support of this effort, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) collaborated with the NTHMP, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) starting in 2023. This collaboration included the collection and analysis of existing tsunami hazard data and methods in the U.S. Tsunami subject matter experts identified and selected scientifically defensible methods for estimating the risks to buildings and populations in coastal communities. These efforts may support decision making regarding resilience policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels. Tsunamis can be triggered by earthquakes, subaerial or submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather or other events. These events can cause severe destruction, injuries, and loss of life due to powerful currents and flooding. Tsunamis pose a substantial threat to the western United States and all U.S. territories, as described below. ■ Hawaii is threatened by distant tsunamis due to its central location in the Pacific Ocean basin and has a history of local events. ■ Alaska, particularly the Aleutian Islands, faces local tsunami threats due to proximity to the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone, as well as distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin. ■ The western coast of the U.S. is threatened by distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin and local source tsunamis from earthquakes generated within the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. ■ American Samoa faces local tsunami threats from earthquakes generated in the nearby Tonga Trench, as well as distant tsunami threats. ■ Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are threatened by local tsunamis from the nearby Mariana Subduction Zone, as well as distant sources from around the Pacific Ocean Basin. ■ Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are threatened by multiple local and distant tsunami sources, such as the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT), given their location in the complex seismic region of the Caribbean Sea. Several historical events stand out because of their catastrophic impacts. ■ In the Pacific Northwest, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake caused a tsunami that affected coastal Native American communities, though the extent of the damage is not fully documented (Ludwin, et al., 2005). ■ In Puerto Rico, the 1918 earthquake triggered a tsunami that caused $77 million in damage in 2022 dollars and 116 fatalities, primarily along the western coast (Coffman et al., 1982). ■ The 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that devastated Hilo, Hawaii, killing 158 people and resulting in approximately $375 million in damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Fisher et al., 2023). ■ The 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2) generated tsunamis that caused severe destruction in some communities across Alaska, Oregon, and California. This disaster led to a total of 124 fatalities and approximately $2.9 billion in property damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Brocher et al., 2014) (Alaska Science Center, 2024). ■ In American Samoa, a tsunami generated by the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) caused widespread devastation, resulting in 34 confirmed fatalities (Apatu et al., 2013) and economic losses exceeding $160 million (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (DHS, 2011). More recent events, including the 2010 Chile earthquake, the 2011 Japan earthquake, and the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption, resulted in millions of dollars in damage to numerous ports and harbors in the U.S. South Pacific territories, Hawaii, and along the west coast of the U.S. (Lynett, et al., 2022) (Wilson, et al., 2013). Since these events, the expansion of the built environment in lowlying areas along the coast has increased the exposure of buildings and people, thereby further escalating community risk from tsunamis. This report provides a comprehensive national assessment of earthquake-generated tsunami risk. It does not include impacts from tsunamis generated by landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather, or other events. This study is based on the best available hazard data from the U.S. Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington), Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories (American Samoa, Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) and Caribbean Territories (Puerto Rico and United States Virgin Islands). Tsunami risks associated with states along the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes are not included in this study because Hazus 6.1 software (FEMA 2024a) does not currently include the ability to analyze tsunami risk in those states. Once modeling capabilities and tsunami hazard data become available for additional states, FEMA may incorporate these data into future editions of this study.

Alaska, California, Hawaii Oregon, Washington↗