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USGS2012

Ecology of zoonotic infectious diseases in bats: current knowledge and future directions

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics.

Zoonoses and Public Health↗

USGS2008

Ticks

The most common vector-borne diseases in both Europe and North America are transmitted by ticks. Lyme borreliosis (LB), a tick-borne bacterial zoonosis, is the most highly prevalent. Other important tick-borne diseases include TBE (tick-borne encephalitis) and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in Europe, Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) in North America, and numerous less common tick-borne bacterial, viral, and protozoan diseases on both continents. The major etiological agent of LB is Borrelia burgdorferi in North America, while in Europe several related species of Borrelia can also cause human illness. These Borrelia genospecies differ in clinical manifestations, ecology (for example, some have primarily avian and others primarily mammalian reservoirs), and transmission cycles, so the epizootiology of LB is more complex in Europe than in North America. Ticks dwell predominantly in woodlands and meadows, and in association with animal hosts, with only limited colonization of human dwellings by a few species. Therefore, suburbanization has contributed substantially to the increase in tick-borne disease transmission in North America by fostering increased exposure of humans to tick habitat. The current trend toward suburbanization in Europe could potentially result in similar increases in transmission of tick-borne diseases. Incidence of tick-borne diseases can be lowered by active public education campaigns, targeted at the times and places of greatest potential for encounter between humans and infected ticks. Similarly, vaccines (e.g., against TBE) are most effective when made available to people at greatest risk, and for high-prevalence diseases such as LB. Consultation with vector-borne disease experts during the planning stages of new human developments can minimize the potential for residents to encounter infected ticks (e.g., by appropriate dwelling and landscape design). Furthermore, research on tick vectors, pathogens, transmission ecology, and on geographic distribution, spread, and management of tick-borne diseases can lead to innovative and improved methods to lower the incidence of these diseases. Surveillance programs to monitor the distribution and spread of ticks, associated pathogens, and their reservoirs, can allow better-targeted management efforts, and provide data to assess effectiveness and to improve management programs.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Ecological impacts of winter water level drawdowns on lake littoral zones: A review

Freshwater littoral zones harbor diverse ecological communities and serve numerous ecosystem functions that are controlled, in part, by natural water level fluctuations. However, human alteration of lake hydrologic regimes beyond natural fluctuations threaten littoral zone ecological integrity. One type of hydrologic alteration in lakes is winter water level drawdowns, which are frequently employed for hydropower, flood control, and macrophyte control, among other purposes. Here, we synthesize the abiotic and biotic responses to annual and novel winter water level drawdowns in littoral zones of lakes and reservoirs. The dewatering, freezing, and increased erosion of exposed lakebeds drive changes in the littoral zone. Shoreline-specific physicochemical conditions such as littoral slope and shoreline exposure further induce modifications. Loss of fine sediment decreases nutrient availability over time, but desiccation may promote a temporary nutrient pulse upon re-inundation. Annual winter drawdowns can decrease taxonomic richness of macrophytes and benthic invertebrates and shift assemblage composition to favor taxa with r-selected life history strategies and with functional traits resistant to direct and indirect drawdown effects. Fish assemblages, though less directly affected by winter drawdowns (except where there is critically low dissolved oxygen), experience negative effects via indirect pathways like decreased food resources and spawning habitat. We identify eight general research gaps to guide future research that could improve our understanding about the complex effects of winter drawdowns on littoral zone ecology.

Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2023

Pardus in the press: Drivers of leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) attack occurrence on humans in Nepal

The negative impact of large carnivore presence in human-dominated landscapes manifests as livestock depredation and in extreme cases as attacks on humans. In the case of conflict with leopards in Nepal, attacks resulting in human fatality have become more frequent over time, thus creating an urgent socio-ecological and management issue. We estimated the occurrence of leopard attacks in Nepal from human-leopard conflict cases reported in the media. We used occupancy models to analyse data collected from online news reports on incidents of leopard attacks on humans to explore drivers of leopard attacks on a landscape scale. Our results suggest that the probability of occurrence of leopard attack is associated with human population density, terrain ruggedness and livestock density. The human population density effect may be indicative of a density-dependent relationship, where attacks are more likely in areas where an increased abundance of humans increases encounter rates with leopards. The positive effect of livestock density suggests that livestock may be drawing leopards into human settlements, and consequently increasing the likelihood of attacks on humans. Terrain ruggedness might be offering ideal conditions to facilitate attacks on humans, for example remoteness and high amounts of cover to launch ambush attacks. We provide inference and insights into key determinants of leopard attacks on humans on a landscape scale. These insights can be used to guide future research, inform mitigation measures to reduce leopard attacks and foster a better understanding of the interaction between people and leopards. This study demonstrates the applicability and novelty of using a hierarchical modelling framework applied to freely and publicly available media reports to inform the applied management of human-wildlife conflict at a national scale.

People and Nature↗

USGS2010

Status and trends of selected resources in the Upper Mississippi River System

Like other large rivers, the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) serves a diversity of roles. The UMRS provides commercial and recreational fishing, floodplain agriculture, drinking water for many communities, an important bird migration pathway, a variety of recreational activities, and a navigation system that transports much of the country's agricultural exports. These multiple roles present significant management challenges. Regular assessment of the condition of the river is needed to improve management plans and evaluate their effectiveness. This report provides a summary of the recent status (mean and range of conditions) and trends (change in direction over time) for 24 indicators of the ecological condition of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers using data collected through the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP). The 24 indicators were grouped into seven categories: hydrology, sedimentation, water quality, land cover, aquatic vegetation, invertebrates, and fish. Most of the data used in the report were collected between about 1993 and 2004, although some older data were also used to compare to recent conditions.Historical observations and current LTRMP data clearly indicate that the UMRS has been changed by human activity in ways that have diminished the ecological health of the river. The data indicate that status and trends differ among regions, and we expect that regional responses to various ecological rehabilitation techniques will differ as well. The continuing role of the LTRMP will be to provide the data needed to assess changes in river conditions and to determine how those changes relate to management actions, natural variation, and the overall ecological integrity of the river system.

Long Term Resource Monitoring Program Technical Re↗

USGS2014

Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease

Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host–pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2019

Integration of social and ecological sciences for natural resource decision making: Challenges and opportunities

The last 25 years have witnessed growing recognition that natural resource management decisions depend as much on understanding humans and their social interactions as on understanding the interactions between non-human organisms and their environment. Decision science provides a framework for integrating ecological and social factors into a decision, but challenges to integration remain. The decision-analytic framework elicits values and preferences to help articulate objectives, and then evaluates the outcomes of alternative management actions to achieve these objectives. Integrating social science into these steps can be hindered by failing to include social scientists as more than stakeholder-process facilitators, assuming that specific decision-analytic skills are commonplace for social scientists, misperceptions of social data as inherently qualitative, timescale mismatches for iterating through decision analysis and collecting relevant social data, difficulties in predicting human behavior, and failures of institutions to recognize the importance of this integration. We engage these challenges, and suggest solutions to them, helping move forward the integration of social and biological/ecological knowledge and considerations in decision-making.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2019

Natural resource management decision-making under climate uncertainty: Building social-ecological resilience in southwestern Colorado

The goal of this project was to facilitate climate change adaptation that contributes to social-ecological resilience, ecosystem and species conservation, and sustainable human communities in southwestern Colorado. The team developed and piloted integrated adaptation planning tools and principles that merge the strengths of the iterative scenario process, the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning framework, institutional analysis, and climate modeling. These tools and principles generated practical strategies and scientific knowledge to advance climate change adaptation in both the Gunnison River Basin and San Juan River Basin and, potentially, other landscapes. A key objective of this project was to work with decision-makers to develop social-ecological adaptation strategies and coordinate actions to reduce the impacts of a changing climate on nature and people. To accomplish this, the project blended science (biophysical and social) and participatory approaches to integrate expert knowledge, land management decision making, and local needs. These adaptation strategies and their creation process were documented by the project team to assist communities and scientists elsewhere who are grappling with the challenges posed by climate change.

Colorado↗

USGS2011

Catfish science: Status and trends in the 21st century

Catfish science, the study of the fish order Siluriformes, is a diverse and expanding field in terms of advances and breadth of topics. We compiled literature from primary fisheries journals as an index of interest and advances in catfish science to examine temporal trends in the field. The number of catfish scientific publications varied over the past century with strong peaks during 1975–1979 and 2005–2010, which may be the result of interactive scientific and societal influences. Catfish biology was the predominant publication topic until the late 1990s, when ecology, techniques, and management publications became more prevalent. Articles on catfish ecology were most numerous in both the first and second international catfish symposia, but publications on techniques and conservation were more numerous in the second catfish symposium than the first. We summarize the state of knowledge, recent advances, and areas for future attention among topics in catfish science, including sampling and aging techniques, population dynamics, ecology, fisheries management, species diversity, nonnative catfish, and human dimensions, with an emphasis on the gains in this second symposium. Areas that we expect to be pursued in the future are development of new techniques and validation of existing methods; expansion of research to less-studied catfish species; broadening temporal, spatial, and organizational scales; interdisciplinary approaches; and research on societal views and constituent demands. Meeting these challenges will require scientists to span beyond their professional comfort zones to effectively reach higher standards. We look forward to the coming decade and the many advances in the conservation, ecology, and management of catfish that will be shared.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

An assessment of current wolf Canis lupus domestication hypotheses based on wolf ecology and behaviour

The dog was the first domesticated animal. Its derivation from grey wolves Canis lupus is important to the study of mammalian domestication, and wolf domestication is an active area of investigation. Recent popular books have promoted a hypothesis that wolves domesticated themselves as opposed to the earliest hypothesis that featured pup collection, adoption, and artificial selection. Continuing research has produced a greater understanding of wolf ecology and behaviour, including new insights into the wolf’s interaction with humans. Several characteristics make the wolf conducive to domestication: its sociality, catholic diet, excellent individual and cultural memory, inbreeding tolerance, varied personalities, and adaptable lifestyle. The wolf’s fear of humans is the main impediment and that alone is a factor strongly disfavouring the self-selection hypothesis. However, collecting young pups from dens and raising them would foster their socialising with humans as pack members. Neither hypothesis explains how wolves undergoing domestication were separated reproductively from their wild relatives, an important condition for domestication. We combine information from the literature with information from our own research on wild wolves, archaeology, and canid morphology. We explain how pup collection and deliberate or incidental selection and encouragement to breed with similarly raised wolves could keep incipient dogs separated reproductively from wild relatives. The key is humans regularly feeding the wolves and keeping only those able to live harmoniously with humans. Well-fed, human-dependent wolves would remain near their food supply and in the company of humans, thus increasing their bonds to humans and vice versa . Outbreeding with wild wolves would thus be avoided. Generation after generation of these human-fed, raised, and selected wolves would become increasingly dependent on humans and shaped by them. The pup-adoption hypothesis presented here is more in keeping with basic wolf ecology and behaviour than the self-domestication hypothesis.

Current Biology↗

USGS2017

Nearly 400 million people are at higher risk of schistosomiasis because dams block the migration of snail-eating river prawns

Dams have long been associated with elevated burdens of human schistosomiasis, but how dams increase disease is not always clear, in part because dams have many ecological and socio-economic effects. A recent hypothesis argues that dams block reproduction of the migratory river prawns that eat the snail hosts of schistosomiasis. In the Senegal River Basin, there is evidence that prawn populations declined and schistosomiasis increased after completion of the Diama Dam. Restoring prawns to a water-access site upstream of the dam reduced snail density and reinfection rates in people. However, whether a similar cascade of effects (from dams to prawns to snails to human schistosomiasis) occurs elsewhere is unknown. Here, we examine large dams worldwide and identify where their catchments intersect with endemic schistosomiasis and the historical habitat ranges of large, migratory Macrobrachium spp. prawns. River prawn habitats are widespread, and we estimate that 277–385 million people live within schistosomiasis-endemic regions where river prawns are or were present (out of the 800 million people who are at risk of schistosomiasis). Using a published repository of schistosomiasis studies in sub-Saharan Africa, we compared infection before and after the construction of 14 large dams for people living in: (i) upstream catchments within historical habitats of native prawns, (ii) comparable undammed watersheds, and (iii) dammed catchments beyond the historical reach of migratory prawns. Damming was followed by greater increases in schistosomiasis within prawn habitats than outside prawn habitats. We estimate that one third to one half of the global population-at-risk of schistosomiasis could benefit from restoration of native prawns. Because dams block prawn migrations, our results suggest that prawn extirpation contributes to the sharp increase of schistosomiasis after damming, and points to prawn restoration as an ecological solution for reducing human disease.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2026

Socio-ecological impacts of the 2025 Los Angeles urban fires on communities, neighborhoods, and homes

Human settlements are increasingly being impacted by urban fires initiated by wildfires. Metrics such as area burned and number of structures destroyed are important, but research often overlooks the socio-ecological complexity of urban fires. We study the impacts of the 2025 Los Angeles fires on two communities at the neighborhood and residential parcel scales. Geospatial analyses and econometric modeling explore the relationships between urban morphology, socio-demographic factors, and home destruction. Here we show that socio-ecological characteristics and scale are key in parsing the dynamics of urban fires. Also, new socio-demographic populations are being affected and urban morphology metrics are more important than vegetation cover. Despite parallels with 19 th and early 20 th century urban conflagrations, understanding these re-emerging urban fires requires transdisciplinary approaches and unique metrics. Investigating the socio-ecological scales and dynamics of urban fires provides a valuable next step towards understanding and adapting to the risk associated with these disasters.

California↗

USGS2023

Restoration research actions to address rapid change in drylands: Insights from the Colorado Plateau

The rapid intensification of ecological extremes in response to climate change and human land use is perhaps nowhere more apparent than in drylands, including the semiarid region of the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern United States. Here, we describe research directions to aid in the restoration of Colorado Plateau ecosystems during the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030) that 1) address high levels of heterogeneity 2) explore simultaneous global change drivers 3) are co-produced with a broad range of partners and 4) center Indigenous ways of knowing. We highlight restoration research efforts led by early career scientists grappling with informing management actions in a region where a rapidly changing climate intersects with historic grazing and continued land use pressures to create novel ecological extremes. We highlight restoration research efforts led by early career researchers grappling with informing management actions in a region where novel ecological extremes are the result of historic grazing, continued land-use pressures, and a rapidly changing climate.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2001

Ecosystem and immune systems: Hierarchial response provides resilience against invasions

J anssen (2001) provides the stimulus for thoughtful comparison and consideration of the ranges of responses exhibited by immune systems and ecological systems in the face of perturbations such as biological invasions. It may indeed be informative to consider the similarities of the responses to invasions exhibited by immune systems and ecological systems. Clearly, both types of systems share a general organizational structure with all other complex hierarchical systems. Their organization provides these systems with resilience. However, when describing the response of ecological-economic systems to invasions, Janssen emphasizes the human-economic response. I would like to expand on his comparison by focusing on how resilience is maintained in complex systems under the threat of invasion.

Conservation Ecology↗

USGS2026

Watershed Continuum Monitoring Approach: Combining multiple water quality patterns along stream and river flowpaths to track sources, pathways, and processing of pollutants

There is a growing need to improve and expand water quality monitoring approaches to more accurately track the sources, fate, and transport of multiple chemicals and pollutants holistically and quantify the effects of best management practices (BMPs) at the watershed scale. An overarching question raised by scientists, environmental managers, and the general public is: how far can water quality impacts from disturbances or benefits from watershed management and restoration propagate along stream and river flowpaths? Many studies using the classic watershed approach focus on analyzing changes in water quality over time at one or a few sampling stations, whereas theories such as the River Continuum Concept focus on predicting shifts in energy sources and biological communities along rivers but have not been directly applied to water quality. We propose to merge these concepts to create a Watershed Continuum Monitoring Approach (WCMA) that combines both spatial and temporal monitoring in order to better detect and quantify trends and transitions in multiple water quality indicators along flowpaths. Specifically, an array of multiple water quality indicators are analyzed at multiple downstream points along a watershed flowpath over time. These multiple water quality indicators are analyzed together for making comparisons to infer hydrological, biological, and geochemical processes controlling sources, transport, and attenuation of pollutants ( e.g. , analagous to stream tracer studies at the watershed scale). The WCMA leverages the natural expansion of watershed areas along a flowpath, which reflect transitions in land use, land cover, and environmental management across spatial and temporal dimensions for making direct comparisons across different stream reaches and spatial trend analysis. WCMA facilitates monitoring of multiple water quality indicators together, and identifcation of hot spots in sources and attenuation of pollutants or mixtures of pollutants. We illustrate practical applications of the WCMA to analyze water quality trends, transitions, and tradeoffs ( i.e. , a tradeoff occurs when one pollutant is reduced but another is directly or indirectly increased downstream). We explore case studies that quantify: (1) downstream reductions in concentrations of multiple pollutants along a stream flowing to a major drinking water source due to engineered and nature-based solutions, (2) downstream reductions in multiple pollutants and water quality tradeoffs along streams experiencing stormwater BMPs and stream restoration, (3) comparisons in downstream reductions of multiple pollutants and nutrient uptake along streams draining into major drinking water sources based on types of stream restoration, (4) comparisons of downstream pollutant reductions along streams experiencing riparian forest conservation vs. stream restoration, and (5) mapping and visualizing hot spots of increasing water quality problems such as hypoxia, contaminant mobilization, and freshwater salinization that extend downstream to tidal rivers of the Chesapeake Bay. We explore future applications of WCMA for tracking decreasing trends in salinity, E. coli , and other pollutants of emerging concern. WCMA can holistically inform progress towards achieving multiple water quality goals and also be used as a screening tool for selecting monitoring sites and targeting management in strategic locations. Overall, WCMA enables the simultaneous quantification and comparison of sources and transport and attenuation rates for different chemicals and pollutants across a broader range of watershed sizes and flowpath lengths, which is critical for understanding ecological, hydrological, geochemical, and biogeochemical processes along human-impacted streams and rivers.

Ecological Engineering↗

USGS2018

Monitoring framework for evaluating hydrogeomorphic and vegetation responses to environmental flows in the Middle Fork Willamette, McKenzie, and Santiam River Basins, Oregon

This report summarizes a framework for monitoring hydrogeomorphic and vegetation responses to environmental flows in support of the Willamette Sustainable Rivers Program (SRP). The SRP is a partnership between The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to provide ecologically sustainable flows downstream of dams while still meeting human needs and congressionally authorized purposes. TNC, USACE, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed this framework specifically for the spawning reaches and lower, alluvial reaches of the Middle Fork Willamette, McKenzie, North Santiam, South Santiam, and main-stem Santiam Rivers. This monitoring framework links stakeholder-defined ecological goals and environmental flow recommendations with measurable objectives and monitoring activities to assess whether those objectives are achieved. Monitoring activities are described for distinct spatial scales (reaches, zones, and sites), which are coupled with appropriate measurement frequency (monthly to decadal or following specific flow conditions). Initial monitoring efforts could focus on developing baseline datasets for tracking future changes and developing robust relationships between flow and hydrogeomorphic and vegetation processes. These relationships would support stakeholders in developing refined environmental flow recommendations that could be efficiently evaluated in the future using continuous discharge records and strategic field-based monitoring. Environmental flow recommendations were developed to achieve certain hydraulic targets (generally defined through water-surface elevation and inundation extent) to support critical habitats for native species at different times of the year. Additionally, flow recommendations were created to support geomorphic processes that create and sustain important riparian and aquatic habitats. The spatial extent, depth, timing, duration, and frequency of inundation extents can be monitored using a combination of water-level loggers, crest-stage gages, surveys, and mapping from aerial photographs or satellite images. Changes in channel morphology (such as increases in gravel bars, side channels or channel width) can be evaluated through repeat mapping of aerial photographs or lidar and carried, and repeat surveys of channel-bed elevations could document patterns of incision or aggradation. Changes in bed texture (such as fining or coarsening) could focus on spawning habitats for spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). Deposition of fine-grained sediment in floodplain channels could be evaluated with deposition pads, repeat surveys, or lidar. Environmental flow recommendations also were developed to promote various stages of floodplain forest succession, with a focus on black cottonwood ( Populus trichocarpa ) because its life history is tightly coupled with floodplain hydrology and disturbance processes. Monitoring approaches for vegetation include strategies for tracking all phases of stand recruitment, establishment, and succession for black cottonwood. Potential recruitment sites can be identified by mapping unvegetated gravel bars from aerial photographs or lidar. Reach-scale patterns of stand recruitment and early succession can be monitored at the reach scale by mapping seral stages of floodplain vegetation from aerial photographs and lidar at the decadal scale. These monitoring approaches also could identify areas of stand recruitment or floodplain recycling. Site-scale monitoring of black cottonwood recruitment and establishment could focus on vegetation plots situated along floodplain transects within laterally dynamic monitoring zones to track seedling establishment or stem exclusion and early seral succession. Reach-scale landcover mapping from aerial photographs and lidar would complement site-scale observations and aid in characterizing overall status and condition of floodplain forests, which could be related to streamflows and hydrogeomorphic processes.

Oregon↗

USGS2007

Recommendations for a barrier island breach management plan for Fire Island National Seashore, including the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area, Long Island, New York

The U.S Army Corps of Engineers, New York District is developing engineering plans, including economic costs and benefits, for storm damage reduction along an 83 mile stretch of the coastal barrier islands and beaches on the south shore of Long Island, NY from Fire Island Inlet east to the Montauk Point headland. The plan, expected to include various alternatives for storm protection and erosion mitigation, is referred to as the Fire Island to Montauk Point Reformulation Plan (FIMP). These plans are expected to follow the Corps of Engineers’ Environmental Operating Principles striving for long term environmental sustainability and balance between environmental protection and protection of human health and property. Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS), a 19,579 acre unit of the National Park System includes a 32 mile long coastal barrier island located within the FIMP project area. A seven-mile section of the park, Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness Area, is also a designated Federal Wilderness Area. The FIIS includes not only the barrier island and sand dunes, but also several islands, sand flats and wetlands landward of the barrier, submerged parts of Great South Bay shoreface, extending approximately 4,000 feet into the bay with the inner shelf region extending approximately 1,000 feet seaward of the Fire Island shoreline. The Fire Island barrier islands, a sand-starved system dominated by highly dynamic processes, are struggling to maintain their integrity in the face of sea-level rise and storms. Adding to the dilemma is that development on the barriers and the mainland has increased greatly during the past 50 years. As such, managers and decision makers in federal agencies, state agencies and local governments are challenged to balance tradeoffs between protection of lives and property, public access and long term conservation of natural habitats and processes and the plants and animals that depend on these habitats. National Park Service (NPS) policy stipulates that natural coastal processes be maintained to the greatest extent possible and not be impeded so as to conserve landforms, habitats and natural ecosystem resources that reply on the landforms and processes for long-term sustainability of the national park. Storms and associated processes such as waves, tides, currents and relative sea-level change are critical elements for the formation and evolution of these barrier islands, sand dunes, back-barrier sand flats and lagoons and vegetated wetlands. Processes such as wave run-up, overwash and barrier beaching, which occur during elevated storm surge are all necessary processes in enabling the efficient transfer of sediments, nutrients and marine water from the Atlantic Ocean across barriers and into Great South Bay. A large body of scientific data and information published over the past 50 years shows that such transfers of sediment and water from the ocean to the bays are essential for the long-term maintenance of the barrier island and back-bay systems and their biologically diverse habitats an d ecosystems. Current relative sea-level rise (~12 in/century) is chronic and pervasive in driving Long Island coastal change and with the likelihood of accelerating sea level rise in the near future, coastal hazards such as erosion, inundation, and storm surge flooding will increase, with corresponding increased risk to life and property on both Fire Island and on the mainland. In addition, the cumulative effects over the past century and more, both direct and indirect, of human impacts on the Long Island coast have altered the barrier beach and dunes and sediment transport processes. These impacts have likely increased the potential for breaching and increased risk to life and property on the coast and the mainland. Examples of direct impacts are: the stone jetties at Moriches, Shinnecock, and Fire Island tidal inlets and groin field structures at Westhampton that alter littoral processes, armoring and erosion-control stabilization of the headlandds such as the Montauk Point headlands, and deepening of navigation channels by dredging through the tidal inlets and in the bays. Indirect impacts that have a bearing on decisions to deal with breaching are: high-risk development of the barrier islands and low-lying areas of the mainland vulnerable to flooding, and the dredging of nearshore sand shoals for beach nourishment. The NPS strives to employ a coastal management framework for decision making that is based on assessment of the physical and ecological properties of the shoreline as well as human welfare and property. In order to protect developed areas of Fire Island and the mainland from loss of life, flooding, and other economic and physical damage, the NPS will likely need to consider allowing artificial closure of some breaches within the FIIS under certain circumstances. The decision by the NPS to allow breaches to evolve naturally and possibly close or to allow artificially closing breaches is based on four criteria: 1. Volumes of sediment transported landward and exchange of water and nutrients; 2. Elevated water levels and flooding risk to mainland life and property; 3. Engineering processes of artificial closure; and 4. Economic costs and benefits of artificial closure. This report for breach management presents protocols which specify when breach closures within the FIIS might be desirable and necessary, as well as provides recommendations for structural breach closure engineering operations which are indented to minimize negative impacts to the natural wilderness values and cultural resources within the FIIS, particularly the Otis Pike Wilderness Area. The goal of the plan is to strike a balance between protecting natural resources and allowing natural processes to operate and avoiding loss of life and excessive property damage.

New York↗

USGS2019

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Winter is an understudied but key period for the socio-ecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid- and high-latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross-cutting understanding of 1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and 2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow-covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector-borne diseases and human health, recreation and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socio- ecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

Ecological Applications↗