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At least 361 records · Page 20Linked to original sources

USGS2022

High-resolution 3D forest structure explains ecomorphological trait variation in assemblages of saproxylic beetles

Climate, topography and the 3D structure of forests are major drivers affecting local species communities. However, little is known about how the specific functional traits of saproxylic (wood-living) beetles, involved in the recycling of wood, might be affected by those environmental characteristics. Here, we combine ecological and morphological traits available for saproxylic beetles and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data in Bayesian trait-based joint species distribution models to study how traits drive the distributions of more than 230 species in temperate forests of Europe. We found that elevation (as a proxy for temperature and precipitation) and the proportion of conifers played important roles in species occurrences while variables related to habitat heterogeneity and forest complexity were less relevant. Furthermore, we showed that local communities were shaped by environmental variation primarily through their ecological traits whereas morphological traits were involved only marginally. As predicted, ecological traits influenced species' responses to forest structure, and to other environmental variation, with canopy niche, wood decay niche and host preference as the most important ecological traits. Conversely, no links between morphological traits and environmental characteristics were observed. Both models, however, revealed strong phylogenetic signal in species' response to environmental characteristics. These findings imply that alterations of climate and tree species composition have the potential to alter saproxylic beetle communities in temperate forests. Additionally, ecological traits help explain species' responses to environmental characteristics and thus should prove useful in predicting their responses to future change. It remains challenging, however, to link simple morphological traits to species' complex ecological niches.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2010

The U.S.Geological Survey Energy Resources Program

Energy resources are an essential component of modern society. Adequate, reliable, and affordable energy supplies obtained using environmentally sustainable practices underpin economic prosperity, environmental quality and human health, and political stability. National and global demands for all forms of energy are forecast to increase significantly over the next several decades. Throughout its history, our Nation has faced important, often controversial, decisions regarding the competing uses of public lands, the supply of energy to sustain development and enable growth, and environmental stewardship. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Energy Resources Program (ERP) provides information to address these challenges by supporting scientific investigations of energy resources, such as research on the geology, geochemistry, and geophysics of oil, gas, coal, heavy oil and natural bitumen, oil shale, uranium, and geothermal resources, emerging resources such as gas hydrates, and research on the effects associated with energy resource occurrence, production, and (or) utilization. The results from these investigations provide impartial, robust scientific information about energy resources and support the U.S. Department of the Interior's (DOI's) mission of protecting and responsibly managing the Nation's natural resources. Primary consumers of ERP information and products include the DOI land- and resource-management Bureaus; other Federal, State, and local agencies; the U.S. Congress and the Administration; nongovernmental organizations; the energy industry; academia; international organizations; and the general public.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2015

Aquatics Systems Branch: transdisciplinary research to address water-related environmental problems

The Aquatic Systems Branch at the Fort Collins Science Center is a group of scientists dedicated to advancing interdisciplinary science and providing science support to solve water-related environmental issues. Natural resource managers have an increasing need for scientific information and stakeholders face enormous challenges of increasing and competing demands for water. Our scientists are leaders in ecological flows, riparian ecology, hydroscape ecology, ecosystem management, and contaminant biology. The Aquatic Systems Branch employs and develops state-of-the-science approaches in field investigations, laboratory experiments, remote sensing, simulation and predictive modeling, and decision support tools. We use the aquatic experimental laboratory, the greenhouse, the botanical garden and other advanced facilities to conduct unique research. Our scientists pursue research on the ground, in the rivers, and in the skies, generating and testing hypotheses and collecting quantitative information to support planning and design in natural resource management and aquatic restoration.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2021

Protocol for route restoration in California’s desert renewable energy conservation plan area

In the deserts of the Southwestern United States, increased off-highway vehicle use can lead to widespread vehicular damage to desert ecosystems. As the popularity and intensity of vehicle use on public lands continues, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is challenged to manage the routes used by recreationists while minimizing activity beyond designated routes and mitigating environmental impacts. Ecosystem function and habitat quality can be degraded by vehicle activities, especially when the activities are occurring outside authorized routes or authorized open areas. Restoration mitigates damage to soils and vegetation; however, methods vary across the desert, results appear to be inconsistent, and standardized monitoring plans do not exist. The Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan Land Use Plan Amendment to the California Desert Conservation Area Land Use Plan identified the need for, and directed implementation of, standardized monitoring of restoration, which includes minimizing surface disturbance to agency prescribed levels in areas of critical environmental concern and on California Desert National Conservation Lands. To assist the BLM in implementing the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan Land Use Plan Amendment, we define ecological restoration as the process of halting or minimizing future degradation while simultaneously assisting the recovery of ecosystem function and community composition in relation to intact reference sites. The monitoring strategies provided in this protocol are used to restore degraded ecosystems after use of non-routes has ceased (non-designated routes or vehicle-caused linear disturbances) by applying techniques to improve edaphic properties, hydrologic function, and biotic community composition. This protocol also provides criteria that can be used to distinguish the status of non-routes and land parcels as “restored” or “disturbed.” This protocol was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with BLM restoration practitioners, to identify standard restoration methods and establish criteria to determine when restoration is achieved. This protocol also develops new methods to increase restoration rates and successes on public lands in the southern California deserts. BLM’s long-term implementation plan for the evaluation of road restoration described in this report is to transition toward managing the work, including developing the workforce and long-term storage and management of the data during the next several years. This report is intended to be regularly updated as the program develops.

California↗

USGS2004

Toward fisheries sustainability in North America: Issues, challenges, and strategies for action

Many fisheries in North America are severely depleted and trending downwards. In an effort to find ways of reversing this disturbing situation, the American Fisheries Society and the Sustainable Fisheries Foundation invited leading experts in fisheries science and aquatic resource management to share their thoughts and insights in this book. These experts were asked to identify the factors that are currently impairing our ability to effectively manage fisheries resources and propose creative solutions for addressing the most challenging issues affecting fisheries sustainability. Based on the information that was provided by the experts (i.e., as presented in the earlier chapters of this book), it is apparent that a wide range of human activities are adversely affecting our shared fisheries resources and the aquatic habitats upon which they depend. The most challenging problems stem from causes that are largely beyond the scope of traditional fisheries management (e.g., human population growth, resource consumption patterns, global climate change, broad land-use patterns). It is also apparent that resolution of these challenges will require a new approach to fisheries management - one that effectively integrates economic, social, and environmental interests into a decision-making framework that supports fisheries sustainability. The key strategies for supporting such a transition toward a more holistic and comprehensive approach to managing the human activities that influence fisheries and aquatic resources are summarized in this chapter. ?? 2004 by the American Fisheries Society.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗

USGS2021

Freshwater cyanotoxin mixtures in recurring cyanobacterial blooms in Voyageurs National Park

Algal and cyanobacterial blooms can foul water systems, inhibit recreation, and produce cyanotoxins, which can be toxic to humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. Blooms that recur yearly present a special challenge, in that chronic effects of most cyanotoxins are unknown. To better understand cyanotoxin timing, possible environmental triggers, and inter-relations among taxa and toxins in bloom communities, recurring cyanobacterial blooms were investigated at three recreational sites in Kabetogama Lake in Voyageurs National Park from 2016-2019. Results indicated that peak neurotoxin concentrations occurred before peak microcystin concentrations and that toxin-forming cyanobacteria were present before visible blooms, which is a serious human health concern. Two cyanotoxin mixture models (MIX) and two microcystin (MC) models were developed using near-real-time environmental variables and additional comprehensive variables based on laboratory analyses. Comprehensive models explained more variability than the environmental models and neither MIX model was a better fit than the MC models. However, the MIX models produced no false negatives, indicating that all observations above human-health regulatory guidelines were simulated by the MIX models. The results show that a model based on a cyanotoxin mixture is more protective of human health than a model based on microcystin alone. In 2019, 7 of 19 toxins were detected in various mixtures. The potential toxin producing cyanobacteria, Microcystis , was significantly correlated with microcystin-YR, while Pseudanabaena sp. and Synechococcus sp. were negatively correlated to several toxins. Jaccard and Sorenson indices indicated strong same-day similarities among the three bloom communities. Nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria were present at every site, and when combined with internal loading of phosphorus, might explain similarities among sites, and why seasonal differences, even in samples from the same site, were stronger. Information from this dissertation adds to the body of work on recurring blooms and under-studied toxins and toxin mixtures, providing a better understanding of future research options for freshwater cyanotoxins in and outside of Voyageurs National Park.

Minnesota↗

USGS2021

Is there enough water? How bearish and bullish outlooks are linked to decision-maker perspectives on environmental flows

Policies that mandate environmental flows (e-flows) can be powerful tools for freshwater conservation, but implementation of these policies faces many hurdles. To better understand these challenges, we explored two key questions: (1) What additional data are needed to implement e-flows? and (2) What are the major socio-political barriers to implementing e-flows? We surveyed water and natural resource decision makers in the semi-arid Red River basin, Texas-Oklahoma, USA, and used social network analysis to analyze their communication patterns. Most respondents agreed that e-flows can provide important benefits and identified the same data needs. However, respondents sharply in their beliefs on other issues, and a clustering analysis revealed two distinct groups of decision makers. One cluster of decision makers tended to be bearish, or pessimistic, and believed that: current flow conditions are not adequate, there are many serious socio-political barriers to implementation, water conflicts will likely increase in the future, and climate change is likely to exacerbate these issues. The other cluster of respondents was bullish, or optimistic: they foresaw fewer future water conflicts and fewer socio-political barriers to implementation. Despite these differences, both clusters largely identified the same data needs and barriers to e-flows implementation. Our social network analysis revealed that the frequency of communication between clusters was not significantly different than the frequency of communication within clusters. Overall, our results suggest that the different perspectives of decision-makers could complicate efforts to implement e-flows and proactively plan for climate change. However, there are opportunities for collaboration on addressing common data needs and barriers to implementation. Overall, our study provides a key socio-environmental perspective on e-flows implementation from a semi-arid and socio-politically complex river basin and contextualizes the many challenges facing e-flows implementation in river basins globally.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2017

Citizen science can improve conservation science, natural resource management, and environmental protection

Citizen science has advanced science for hundreds of years, contributed to many peer-reviewed articles, and informed land management decisions and policies across the United States. Over the last 10 years, citizen science has grown immensely in the United States and many other countries. Here, we show how citizen science is a powerful tool for tackling many of the challenges faced in the field of conservation biology. We describe the two interwoven paths by which citizen science can improve conservation efforts, natural resource management, and environmental protection. The first path includes building scientific knowledge, while the other path involves informing policy and encouraging public action. We explore how citizen science is currently used and describe the investments needed to create a citizen science program. We find that: Citizen science already contributes substantially to many domains of science, including conservation, natural resource, and environmental science. Citizen science informs natural resource management, environmental protection, and policymaking and fosters public input and engagement. Many types of projects can benefit from citizen science, but one must be careful to match the needs for science and public involvement with the right type of citizen science project and the right method of public participation. Citizen science is a rigorous process of scientific discovery, indistinguishable from conventional science apart from the participation of volunteers. When properly designed, carried out, and evaluated, citizen science can provide sound science, efficiently generate high-quality data, and help solve problems.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2019

Modeling long-term effects of fuel treatments on fuel loads and fire regimes in the Great Basin

The principal motivation for this study is that sagebrush-steppe ecosystems are undergoing significant state changes, and land managers are challenged with optimizing their resources for both short- and long-term use. Yet, limited knowledge is available regarding how the sagebrush-steppe will respond to environmental changes related to precipitation and temperature regimes, and disturbance such as fire. Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding on how fuels reduction and other fuel management activities will impact these ecosystems over the long-term. We addressed these challenges by adapting and testing a vegetation dynamics model, the Ecosystem Demography v2.2 model (EDv2.2), for the sagebrush-steppe. Vegetation dynamics models can provide estimations of ecosystem productivity in their natural and disturbance states, and thus serve as a tool to understand and predict potential changes in various processes and properties of vegetation communities. Yet, there is no vegetation dynamics model that is well-developed for the sagebrush-steppe, and thus significant effort is needed to test EDv2.2 for its application. As part of our efforts to develop the EDv2.2 model into a useful tool for the sagebrush-steppe, we developed a sagebrush plant functional type (PFT) as part of this study, and then performed sensitivity analyses, model calibration, and finally model evaluation. Furthermore, we developed several model scenarios under natural (undisturbed) and disturbed (fire) environments. We compared our model outputs with ground-based data (field and eddy covariance) and remote sensing observations. The results of our project include a sagebrush PFT that can be used in both future EDv2.2 modeling efforts and other vegetation dynamic models. Our results from the model sensitivity analysis indicate that specific leaf area (SLA), stomatal slope (STO_S), cuticular conductance (CUT_C), and carboxylase rate constant (VM0) are sensitive parameters to vegetation productivity in the model (based on gross primary production, GPP), and future modeling efforts will benefit from both lab and field studies of these parameters and sensitivity analyses. Through calibration, we found that the EDv2.2 model estimates of GPP were modeled well at our lowest elevation field site in Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW), which is dominated by Wyoming big sagebrush. On the contrary, we found poorer results at higher elevation site shrub sites. These sites are characterized by either low sagebrush or mountain big sagebrush, and have more forb cover than the low elevation site. In this project we also implemented the fire model in EDv2.2 to explore how shrub and C3 grasses respond to fire by analyzing post-fire GPP. We ran both point and regional model runs with fire introduced. In most fire scenarios, fire substantially reduced shrub GPP and it took several decades for shrub GPP to return to pre-fire conditions. Grass GPP responded more quickly in post-fire conditions. While these processes are representative of what other studies have found, significant efforts to improve the fire processes in EDv2.2 are needed. For example, nuances associated with the fire subroutine in the model (running periodic fire events versus instantaneous fires and fire intensity) will need to be expanded. Another significant contribution to our knowledge gap is that additional PFTs to represent the sagebrush-steppe (e.g. annual grasses such cheatgrass) are needed for EDv2.2. Regardless, this project made significant advances in PFT development and model testing. Moreover, the EDv2.2 provides a useful framework to conceptualize vegetation dynamics, project future conditions, and consider fire as a disturbance. With additional parameterizations, PFTs, and fire routines, EDv2.2 will evolve as a tool for which to better understand future ecosystem dynamics of the sagebrush-steppe.

Idaho↗

USGS2016

Applications of genetic data to improve management and conservation of river fishes and their habitats

Environmental variation and landscape features affect ecological processes in fluvial systems; however, assessing effects at management-relevant temporal and spatial scales is challenging. Genetic data can be used with landscape models and traditional ecological assessment data to identify biodiversity hotspots, predict ecosystem responses to anthropogenic effects, and detect impairments to underlying processes. We show that by combining taxonomic, demographic, and genetic data of species in complex riverscapes, managers can better understand the spatial and temporal scales over which environmental processes and disturbance influence biodiversity. We describe how population genetic models using empirical or simulated genetic data quantify effects of environmental processes affecting species diversity and distribution. Our summary shows that aquatic assessment initiatives that use standardized data sets to direct management actions can benefit from integration of genetic data to improve the predictability of disturbance–response relationships of river fishes and their habitats over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales.

Fisheries↗

USGS2003

Challenges to reestablishment of free-ranging populations of black-footed ferrets

The black-footed ferret ( Mustela nigripes ) of North America is critically endangered due in part to its extreme specialization on formerly stable and abundant prairie dogs ( Cynomys ). Its close relative, the Siberian polecat ( M. eversmannii ) seems to have been subjected to a varying environment that was not conducive to specialization. One source of environmental variation in Asian steppes was plague (caused by Yersina pestis ), which was absent from North America. Introduction of plague to North America presents serious challenges to ferret recovery. Partial solutions to other biological and political problems have been found, resulting in improved production in captivity, increased survival post-release, and thriving populations in plague-free South Dakota.

Comptes Rendus - Biologies↗

USGS2020

A socio-environmental geodatabase for integrative research in the transboundary Rio Grande/Río Bravo basin

Management of water resources in the transboundary Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin (the Basin) presents challenges for state and Federal entities in the United States and Mexico making management decisions on shared water resources. Damming, channelization, water availability, and allocation are governed by water rights and water-sharing agreements. Data and information sharing are important aspects of transboundary cooperation, but differences in format, content, spatial and temporal resolution, and language hinder collaboration. In addition, data on the kinds and geographic distribution of water governance and management institutions across the Basin have not been consistently documented. Existing data disparities parallel the hydrological and social fragmentation of the Basin. Seeking to underscore the interdependence between social and environmental processes in the Basin, anthropologists and modelers collaborated to develop a socio-environmental geodatabase. This geodatabase is a first step in modeling the social components of decision making and their connectivity to environmental processes across the Basin. The geodatabase is available in an open-access domain and contains geospatial data related to water and land governance, hydrology, water use and hydraulic infrastructure, socioeconomics, and the biophysical environment necessary to advance the understanding of basin dynamics. Having these data documented and compiled in a central location serves as a resource to help decision makers better understand upstream and downstream social-environmental characteristics. This knowledge is useful for developing sustainable water management policies in a region where water resources are increasingly under pressure from climatic, environmental, and human-related changes.

Chihuahua, New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2025

Review: The hydrogeology of critical mineral resources relevant to the energy transition

Attaining the goals of the international treaty on climate change (the Paris Agreement) will greatly increase the demand for the critical minerals required to implement clean-energy technologies. This poses both challenges and opportunities to the hydrogeologic community from several perspectives. Here, important insights that the hydrogeological sciences have to offer for mineral exploration, mineral production, and addressing environmental issues related to mining and mine decommissioning are summarized. This study focuses on copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths to represent the broad spectrum of critical minerals and illustrate their relevance by referring to projected demands and production rates. The current understanding of the hydrogeologic processes that form major deposits of these minerals are then summarized. Ore is defined as the naturally occurring material from which minerals of economic value can be extracted, where most ore deposits are the products of complex hydrogeologic couplings between fluid flow, heat transport, solute transport, chemical reactions, and mechanical deformation. Exploration models for the discovery of deeper, hidden deposits are potentially informed by hydrogeologic theory and hydrogeochemical processes. Hydrogeologic understanding and methods are also essential to production and recovery. Longstanding challenges are mine dewatering and (conversely) mine water supply, as well as mineral-extraction practices such as spoil heap leaching and in situ mining. New challenges arise from element extraction from subsurface brines. Finally, the quantity of water use and potential environmental impacts of mining on water quality are at the core of ‘social license’: the approval and acceptance of society to mining activities.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS2022

Landsat data ecosystem case study: Actor perceptions of the use and value of landsat

It is well-known that Earth observation (EO) data plays a critical role in scientific understanding about the global environment. There is also growing support for the use of EO data to provide context-specific insights, with significant implications for their use in decision support systems. Technological development over recent years, including cloud computing infrastructure, machine learning techniques, and rapid expansion of the velocity, volume, and variety of space-borne data sources, offer huge potential to provide solutions to the myriad environmental problems facing society and the planet. The USGS/NASA Landsat Program, the longest continuously gathered source of land surface data, has played a central role in our understanding of environmental change, particularly for its contribution of longitudinal products that offer greater context for present research and decision support activities. The challenge facing the Landsat and EO data community, however, now lies in moving beyond context-specific knowledge generation to translating such knowledge into tangible value for society. Drawing from an open data ecosystem framework and qualitative social science methods, we map the Landsat data ecosystem (LDE) and the relationships linking multiple actors responsible for processing, indexing, analyzing, synthesizing, and translating raw Landsat data into information that is useful, useable, and used by end users in particular social-environmental contexts. Both the role of Big Data and associated technologies are discussed as they relate to the ultimate use of Landsat-derived information products to guide decision-making, and key data ecosystem characteristics that shape the likelihood of these products’ use are highlighted.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

USGS2023

Integrated analysis shows how the effects of extreme flooding events propagate through fish communities to impact amphibians

Research Highlight: Davis, C. L., Walls, S. C., Barichivich, W. J., Brown, M. E., & Miller, D. A. (2022). Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities. Journal of Animal Ecology , https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13874 . Catastrophic events such as floods, hurricanes, winter storms, droughts and wildfires increasingly touch our lives either directly or indirectly. These events draw our attention to the seriousness of changes in climate not only to human well-being but also to the integrity of ecological systems upon which we depend. Understanding the impacts of extreme events on ecological systems requires the ability to characterize the cascading effects of environmental changes on the environments in which organisms live and the altered biological interactions produced. This scientific ambition represents no small challenge for the study of animal communities, which are typically difficult to census as well as dynamic in time and space. Davis et al. (2022) in a recent study in the Journal of Animal Ecology examined the amphibian and fish communities found in depressional coastal wetlands to better understand how they respond to major rainfall and flooding events. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey's Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative provided an 8-year record of observations as well as environmental measurements. For this study, the authors integrated techniques for assessing the dynamics of animal populations with a Bayesian implementation of structural equation modelling. Using their integrated methodological approach permitted the authors to reveal the direct and indirect effects of extreme weather events on co-occurring amphibian and fish communities while accounting for observational uncertainty and temporal variation in population-level processes. Their findings indicate that the most prominent effects of flooding on the amphibian community were caused by changes in the fish community that led to increased predation and resource competition. In their conclusions, the authors emphasize the importance of understanding networks of abiotic and biotic effects if we are to predict and mitigate the influence of extreme weather events.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2026

Non-physical barrier design and environmental conditions alter routing and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

Pacific salmon face substantial challenges when migrating through anthropogenically modified river systems, such as the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (the Delta). Non-physical behavioral barriers, such as the bioacoustic fish fence (BAFF), are one potential solution for guiding fish away from hazards without obstructing water flow. However, the effectiveness of these technologies depends on abiotic and biotic conditions. In the Delta, a BAFF was deployed at Georgiana Slough in 2011, 2012, and 2024 to deter juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) from migrating into the interior Delta, a region associated with lower survival than the mainstem Sacramento River. We leveraged nine years of acoustic telemetry data to evaluate BAFF performance across flow conditions and two BAFF designs (2011/2012 vs. 2024), and to assess the BAFF's contribution to improving through-Delta survival. The BAFF reduced routing into Georgiana Slough from 26.5% without a barrier to 8.9% in 2011/2012 and 15.9% in 2024. In general, routing into Georgiana Slough increased with the proportion of flow entering the channel during periods without a BAFF and during the 2024 deployment but remained constant during the 2011/2012 deployment. Additionally, BAFF effectiveness declined with increasing input flow. Ultimately, reduced routing into Georgiana Slough during the 2024 BAFF deployment resulted in an increase in estimated through-Delta survival between 0.2 and 1.6 percentage points depending on release group. Our results provide valuable insights into the role of non-physical barriers in complex river systems and inform future management strategies for protecting migrating juvenile Chinook salmon in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.

California↗

USGS2017

Adaptive management of rangeland systems

Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that uses structured learning to reduce uncertainties for the improvement of management over time. The origins of adaptive management are linked to ideas of resilience theory and complex systems. Rangeland management is particularly well suited for the application of adaptive management, having sufficient controllability and reducible uncertainties. Adaptive management applies the tools of structured decision making and requires monitoring, evaluation, and adjustment of management. Adaptive governance, involving sharing of power and knowledge among relevant stakeholders, is often required to address conflict situations. Natural resource laws and regulations can present a barrier to adaptive management when requirements for legal certainty are met with environmental uncertainty. However, adaptive management is possible, as illustrated by two cases presented in this chapter. Despite challenges and limitations, when applied appropriately adaptive management leads to improved management through structured learning, and rangeland management is an area in which adaptive management shows promise and should be further explored.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

A trait-based framework for predicting when and where microbial adaptation to climate change will affect ecosystem functioning

As the earth system changes in response to human activities, a critical objective is to predict how biogeochemical process rates (e.g. nitrification, decomposition) and ecosystem function (e.g. net ecosystem productivity) will change under future conditions. A particular challenge is that the microbial communities that drive many of these processes are capable of adapting to environmental change in ways that alter ecosystem functioning. Despite evidence that microbes can adapt to temperature, precipitation regimes, and redox fluctuations, microbial communities are typically not optimally adapted to their local environment. For example, temperature optima for growth and enzyme activity are often greater than in situ temperatures in their environment. Here we discuss fundamental constraints on microbial adaptation and suggest specific environments where microbial adaptation to climate change (or lack thereof) is most likely to alter ecosystem functioning. Our framework is based on two principal assumptions. First, there are fundamental ecological trade-offs in microbial community traits that occur across environmental gradients (in time and space). These trade-offs result in shifting of microbial function (e.g. ability to take up resources at low temperature) in response to adaptation of another trait (e.g. limiting maintenance respiration at high temperature). Second, the mechanism and level of microbial community adaptation to changing environmental parameters is a function of the potential rate of change in community composition relative to the rate of environmental change. Together, this framework provides a basis for developing testable predictions about how the rate and degree of microbial adaptation to climate change will alter biogeochemical processes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet.

Biogeochemistry↗