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USGS2024

The effects of spatio-temporal variation in marine resources on the occupancy dynamics of a terrestrial avian predator

Identifying how species respond to system drivers such as weather, climate, habitat, and resource availability is critical in understanding population change. In coastal areas, the transfer of nutrients across the marine and terrestrial interface increases complexity. Nesting populations of bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) along the Pacific coast of North America, although terrestrial, are largely dependent on marine resources during the breeding season and therefore represent a good focal species for understanding linkages of nutrients between terrestrial and marine systems. Due to their location, coastal eagle populations are susceptible to a variety of climate-induced perturbations, from both land and sea. The northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave (PMH) of 2014-2016 had wide-ranging impacts on the marine ecosystem and provided an opportunity to explore how marine conditions can impact terrestrial wildlife populations. We used a spatially-explicit multi-state occupancy modeling framework to analyze >30yrs of bald eagle nest occupancy data collected in four large national parks along a coastal-interior gradient in Alaska, USA. We assessed occupancy state in relation to weather conditions, salmon abundance, access to alternate prey resources, and the PMH event to help elucidate the factors affecting bald eagle occupancy dynamics over time. We found that occupancy probability was higher in areas where prey resources were concentrated (e.g., near seabird colonies, where bears facilitate access to salmon carcasses). We also found that the probability of reproductive success was higher during warmer, drier springs with higher-than-average salmon abundance. After the onset of the marine heatwave, success declined in the areas most dependent on non-salmon marine resources. These findings confirm the importance of spring weather conditions and access to salmon resources during the critical chick-rearing period, but also reveal that marine heatwaves may have important secondary effects through a reduction in the overall quantity or quality of prey available to bald eagles. Given ongoing warming at high latitudes and the expectation that marine heatwaves will become more common, our findings are useful for understanding ongoing and future changes in the transfer of nutrients from marine to terrestrial ecosystems and how such changes may impact terrestrial species such as bald eagles.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire

Fire and drought are expected to increase in frequency and severity in temperate forests due to climate change. To evaluate whether drought increases the likelihood of post-fire tree mortality, we used a large database of tree survival and mortality from 32 years of wildland fires covering four dominant western North American conifers. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to predict the probability of individual tree mortality after fire based on species— Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine), Abies concolor (white fir), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir), and Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine)—bark thickness, bark char, percentage live tree crown scorched or consumed crown volume scorch (CVS), and mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD) anomalies the year pre-fire and fire year relative to the 1985–2015 reference period. Although crown injury was the primary determinant of tree mortality after fire, drought increased likelihood of death, with a 2-SD increase in CWD (+115.7) resulting in a 78% increase in the probability of mortality. We assessed the crown scorch level expected to result in >50% probability of mortality under different CWD scenarios: observed CWD, CWD of +2, and +4°C warming scenarios. Increased climatic moisture stress amplified tree death, reducing the threshold that causes tree mortality across all conifers under +4°C warming, with more subtle and species-specific reductions for the +2°C scenario. Models predicting post-fire tree mortality are components of global and regional carbon estimates, habitat suitability assessments, and forest management planning and decision support systems. The amplifying effects of drought on post-fire tree mortality and predicted future climates are likely to lead to higher tree mortality following fires in forested landscapes of western North America and may have cascading effects on ecosystem services and future forest resilience.

western United States↗

USGS2024

The dynamics of sea otter prey selection under population growth and expansion

Sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) were extirpated from much of their range in the North Pacific by the early 1900s but have made a remarkable recovery in Southeast Alaska. Sea otter populations have been particularly successful in Glacier Bay, Alaska, a protected tidewater glacier fjord with a diverse and productive nearshore habitat. Collection of sea otter foraging observations in Glacier Bay began in 1993, along with high-resolution aerial surveys that provide estimates of sea otter abundance and distribution. We integrated these two data sources to investigate how sea otter diet changed in space and time as sea otters established and spread across Glacier Bay. Specifically, we developed a multilevel Bayesian model to capture how sea otter diet at a location (the number, type, and size of prey collected) changed as a function of local cumulative otter abundance and the year in which the location was first occupied. This framework enabled us to estimate the sequence of sea otter prey selection and switching as prey populations responded to sea otter foraging pressure. We found that local sea otter diet changed substantially as the population established, shifting away from large urchins, crabs, and clams to Modiolus mussels and small urchins, and lastly to small clams and Mytilus mussels. We also found that sea otter diet at newly occupied sites changed as otters spread over the main channel and into the arms of Glacier Bay. Further, by 2019, sea otters across the bay were primarily foraging on small prey, regardless of the local occupancy history. The absence of a spatial gradient in the size of prey captured late in the study suggests that feedbacks between the top-down effects of sea otter foraging, sea otter dispersal processes, and local variation in habitat productivity may have homogenized the size structure of available prey across Glacier Bay.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Quantifying uncertainty in anthropogenic causes of injury and mortality for an endangered baleen whale

Understanding the causes of mortality for a declining species is essential for developing effective conservation and management strategies, particularly when anthropogenic activities are the primary threat. Using a competing hazards framework allows for robust estimation of the cause-specific variation in risk that may exist across multiple dimensions, such as time and individual. Here, we estimated cause-specific rates of severe injury and mortality for North Atlantic right whales ( Eubalaena glacialis ), a critically endangered species that is currently in peril due to human-caused interactions. We developed a multistate capture–recapture model that leveraged 30 years of intensive survey effort yielding sightings of individuals with injury assessments and necropsies of carcass recoveries. We examined variation in the hazard rates of severe injury and mortality due to entanglements in fishing gear and vessel strikes as explained by temporal patterns and the age and reproductive status of the individual. We found strong evidence for increased rates of severe entanglement injuries after 2013 and for females with calves, with consequently higher marginal mortality. The model results also suggested that despite vessel strikes causing a lower average rate of severe injuries, the higher mortality rate conditional on injury results in significant total mortality risk, particularly for females resting from a recent calving event. Large uncertainty in the estimation of carcass recovery rate for vessel strike deaths permeated into the apportionment of mortality causes. The increased rates of North Atlantic right whale mortality in the last decade, particularly for reproducing females, has been responsible for the severe decline in the species. By apportioning the human-caused threats using a quantitative approach with estimation of relevant uncertainty, this work can guide development of conservation and management strategies to facilitate species recovery. Our approach is relevant to other monitored populations where cause-specific injuries from multiple threats can be observed in live and dead individuals.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2024

Effects of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, abundance, and environmental conditions on bighorn sheep lamb:ewe ratios and adult survival in New Mexico

Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae is a primary causative agent responsible for initiating polymicrobial pneumonia in bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ). Infections of bighorn sheep populations are typically characterized by initial all-age epizootics followed by long-term periods of repressed juvenile (lamb) survival. Populations of bighorn sheep in New Mexico, USA, were thought to be free of this pathogen prior to 2017 but recent infection of multiple herds raised concerns regarding impacts on population size and juvenile:female ratios. Using aerial survey, survival, and disease sampling data in an exploratory framework, we (1) characterize age-related differences in M. ovipneumoniae prevalence and seroprevalence, (2) quantify differences in lamb:ewe ratios pre- and post- M. ovipneumoniae detection, and (3) investigate differences in survival between previously exposed and naïve individuals. From 2007 to 2022, we sampled 466 bighorn sheep across 19 populations in New Mexico for M. ovipneumoniae exposure. While the timing of initial herd infections varied across populations, one population sustained active infections for over 15 years. We found reduced juvenile:female ratios post M. ovipneumoniae exposure for both desert ( O. c. mexicana ) and Rocky Mountain ( O. c. canadensis ) bighorn sheep populations. Post-exposure ratio declines ranged from 20% to 69%. Evaluation of population size and environmental condition effects on juvenile:female ratios indicated varying impacts for each subspecies. Notably, population size was negatively related to Rocky Mountain juvenile:female ratios only after populations were exposed to M. ovipneumoniae . Additionally, climatic conditions in the previous lambing season and pre-parturition time frame were associated with juvenile:female ratios for Rocky Mountain populations, while juvenile:female ratios of desert bighorn appeared to only be affected by pre-parturition climatic conditions. Kaplan–Meier survival estimation of previously exposed, but putatively recovered, individuals ( n = 31) and naïve individuals ( n = 70) revealed lower (75%; 95% CI: 62%–93%) but not statistically significant ( p = 0.2) 1-year survival rates for individuals that were seropositive but not actively infected, when compared to seronegative individuals (88%; 95% CI: 81%–97%). These results collectively suggest that following M. ovipneumoniae introduction, bighorn sheep populations in New Mexico could be limited by lamb survival.

New Mexico↗

USGS2024

Seasonal resource selection of a grassland bird in a dynamic landscape: Importance of a heterogeneous landscape

Habitat loss and fragmentation are a growing threat to wildlife, and a better understanding of these landscape processes is needed to mitigate their effects on species populations. Grassland biomes are among the most imperiled ecosystems in the world, and grassland birds are experiencing significant population declines in North America. Understanding how species respond to differences in resource availabilities across spatiotemporal extents is critical to determining animals' distributions. Here, we investigated the relationship of landscape attributes to spatiotemporal distribution of a grassland bird, the ring-necked pheasant ( Phasianus colchicus ), which has experienced population declines in the Midwest, USA. Pheasant declines have been attributed to two anthropogenic stressors, land use change and climate change. In this study, we evaluated the effect of landscape attributes (composition and configuration) on the home-range size and resource selection of pheasants. We used a 95% fixed kernel estimator to estimate home-range size and identified scales at which landscape features influenced home-range sizes. We quantified landscape features within radii of 250, 500, and 1000 m (i.e., local to broader spatial scales) from the home-range center. We also used resource selection functions to predict the home-range placement (second order) and resource selection within home ranges (third order) of pheasants during winter, pre-nesting, and nesting seasons. We developed multi-scale predictions of pheasant resource selection and identified wetlands, grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands, and small grains as land cover types used by pheasants to fulfill their life requirements. Our results indicated home ranges were more likely to be in a landscape with more CRP, wetlands, and grasslands; more connected grasslands; and a greater number of grassland patches. Pheasants also selected heterogeneous landscape and avoided row crops at both orders of selection. Maintaining habitat heterogeneity, by managing landscapes composed of a high proportion of grasslands and CRP surrounded by small grains and wetlands, could enhance the benefits of local management practices for pheasants. Collectively, insights obtained from our study can advance habitat conservation efforts for similar grassland birds and consequently are of broad utility to biologists and wildlife managers.

South Dakota↗

USGS2025

Spatiotemporal interactions facilitate sympatry in a diverse mammalian community

Understanding mechanisms underlying coexistence among potential competitors, and between predators and prey, is a persistent challenge in community ecology. Using 6 years (2013–2018) of camera-trapping data and species interaction models, we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of inter- and intra-guild interspecific interactions in a diverse terrestrial mammalian community in Pakke Wildlife Sanctuary and Tiger Reserve (PTR), Northeast India. We found no evidence of spatial interaction among apex predators (tiger Panthera tigris , leopard Panthera pardus , and dhole Cuon alpinus ). However, dholes temporally separated themselves from tigers and leopards. Among small carnivores, marbled cat ( Pardofelis marmorata ) and leopard cat ( Prionailurus bengalensis ) exhibited temporal separation, whereas leopard cat overlapped spatially and temporally with other small carnivores. Herbivores exhibited neither spatial nor temporal separation with each other. All apex predators exhibited diel activity and space-use patterns to overlap with their preferred prey. Our results suggest that the assembly of the diverse mammalian community of PTR is a complex process, and coexistence among potential competitors, and predators and prey is likely facilitated by several mechanisms including spatial and temporal segregation, and potentially dietary separation.

Arunachal Pradesh↗

USGS2025

Winter tick sharing between ungulates in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and implications for apparent competition

Host species heterogeneity can drive parasite dynamics through variation in host competency as well as host abundance. We explored how elk ( Cervus canadensis ) with apparent subclinical infestations of winter tick ( Dermacentor albipictus ) may be a cryptic reservoir and drive winter tick dynamics, impacting moose ( Alces alces ) populations. We found that winter tick infestation loads did not vary remarkably between both host species and winter ticks sourced from elk and moose produced similar numbers of larvae which activated within 5 days of each other. We also found similar larval densities in habitats predominately used by elk, moose, and both host species. Our analysis of 2793 informative single-nucleotide polymorphisms showed genetic differentiation among tick populations that were only ~75 km apart, but fewer differences among ticks from elk or moose in the same locality, suggesting sharing of winter ticks across host species. Despite the clinical signs of high winter tick infestations being most apparent on moose, elk may be critical drivers of winter tick population dynamics and indirectly compete with moose in areas where they outnumber moose populations, a common characteristic of ungulate communities in western North America. Management interventions aimed at addressing winter tick issues on moose may wish to consider the movement patterns and abundance of cryptic reservoirs like elk.

Wyoming↗

USGS2024

A comparative framework to develop transferable species distribution models for animal telemetry data

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become increasingly popular for making ecological inferences, as well as predictions to inform conservation and management. In predictive modeling, practitioners often use correlative SDMs that only evaluate a single spatial scale and do not account for differences in life stages. These modeling decisions may limit the performance of SDMs beyond the study region or sampling period. Given the increasing desire to develop transferable SDMs, a robust framework is necessary that can account for known challenges of model transferability. Here, we propose a comparative framework to develop transferable SDMs, which was tested using satellite telemetry data from green turtles ( Chelonia mydas ). This framework is characterized by a set of steps comparing among different models based on (1) model algorithm (e.g., generalized linear model vs. Gaussian process regression) and formulation (e.g., correlative model vs. hybrid model), (2) spatial scale, and (3) accounting for life stage. SDMs were fitted as resource selection functions and trained on data from the Gulf of Mexico with bathymetric depth, net primary productivity, and sea surface temperature as covariates. Independent validation datasets from Brazil and Qatar were used to assess model transferability. A correlative SDM using a hierarchical Gaussian process regression (HGPR) algorithm exhibited greater transferability than a hybrid SDM using HGPR, as well as correlative and hybrid forms of hierarchical generalized linear models. Additionally, models that evaluated habitat selection at the finest spatial scale and that did not account for life stage proved to be the most transferable in this study. The comparative framework presented here may be applied to a variety of species, ecological datasets (e.g., presence-only, presence-absence, mark-recapture), and modeling frameworks (e.g., resource selection functions, step selection functions, occupancy models) to generate transferable predictions of species–habitat associations. We expect that SDM predictions resulting from this comparative framework will be more informative management tools and may be used to more accurately assess climate change impacts on a wide array of taxa.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2024

Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understories

Reed canarygrass ( Phalaris arundinacea L.) is one of the most common invaders of floodplains and wetlands in North America. In the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, invasion by reed canarygrass in forest understories can inhibit forest regeneration when gaps form in the overstory. Understanding the distribution of reed canarygrass in forest understories is essential for effective management and control. We used an ensemble of species distribution models including Bayesian additive regression trees, boosted trees, and random forest algorithms to predict habitat suitability for reed canarygrass in forest understories across the Upper Mississippi River floodplain (~41,000 ha). Data from forest inventory study plots with reed canarygrass presence and absence were combined with 10 hypothesized environmental predictors of reed canarygrass invasion. We applied three approaches to better understand and incorporate the influence of spatial autocorrelation among our predictor variables, including random cross-validation, spatial cross-validation, and spatial cross-validation with Euclidean distance fields. Flood frequency, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to forest edge, and distance to invaded wet meadow were among the most important environmental predictors across the three algorithms. Generally, the mean probability of reed canarygrass presence decreased with increasing flood depth, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to invaded wet meadow, forest cover, and forest height, while relationships with other predictors were more variable. The ensemble of the three models (i.e., the average prediction) was used to map and summarize potential reed canary grass habitat suitability across the landscape. The maps generated quantified the habitat suitability for reed canarygrass and areas of agreement among the models in forest understories across the floodplain. This information can be used to better understand the extent of invasion, prioritize restoration efforts, and develop further research.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisc↗

USGS2025

A Colorado Front Range grassland exhibits decreasing dominance of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) over time

Causes, consequences, and potentials for recovery from invasions by the invasive annual grass, cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ), in western North America have been extensively documented. The vast majority of these studies have come from regions where yearly precipitation is dominated by “winter-wet” patterns, but this species has also demonstrated its ability to invade plant communities in “spring/summer-wet” areas as well. In grasslands of the Front Range of Colorado, a region experiencing a “spring/summer-wet” precipitation pattern, cheatgrass can exploit early-season soil moisture, but moderate rainfall continues into the growing season beyond the time of cheatgrass senescence. In this study, we measured how cheatgrass dominance changed over a 13-year interval in a disturbed meadow along the Front Range of Colorado with a “spring/summer-wet” precipitation pattern. Cheatgrass cover declined in absolute abundance by about 50% while total vegetation cover increased over this time period. The site was neither grazed nor burned during this interval. A “spring/summer-wet” precipitation pattern with high interannual variation in amounts occurred during the study, but no relationships between the seasonality or amounts of precipitation and the directional decline in cheatgrass abundance were observed. Rainout shelter manipulations showed that the seasonality of precipitation influenced cheatgrass abundance, with winter drought treatments reducing cheatgrass cover relative to plots that experienced summer drought treatments. The cheatgrass decline corresponded with a lesser decline in native grass cover and no change in native forb cover, while the abundance of non-native perennial grasses and forb species increased over the study interval. Although cheatgrass can invade communities across broad climatic gradients following disturbance, results from this study show that the persistence of cheatgrass within invaded areas may depend on the seasonality of precipitation and plant communities that vary across these gradients.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

Possible influence of water level management on nutrient flux in nearshore sediments of Kabetogama Lake, Minnesota, USA

Lake water level fluctuations are an important factor driving variation in many ecosystem processes. The nearshore sediments that are periodically exposed and re-inundated can develop distinct physical and chemical characteristics, especially in relationship to the organic matter content of the sediments and the particle size distribution. These sediment characteristics in turn can alter the flux of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from sediments into the water column when sediments are inundated. Here, we used intact sediment core experiments across a range of sediment inundation frequencies to estimate the effect of inundation frequency on sediment nutrient flux in Kabetogama Lake, Minnesota, USA. We observed associations between elevation or inundation frequency and some sediment characteristics, but in a structural equation model, inundation frequency and the sediment properties we measured were poorly related to inorganic nutrient flux. On the other hand, inundation frequency did have a moderate association with organic N and P flux from sediments, which could be due to decay of terrestrial organic matter that accumulates on exposed sediments. We used our parameterized structural equation model to estimate how three different water level management regimes employed over the past 50 years could influence organic N and P flux from sediments. The models suggested more recent water level management regimes reduced organic N and P flux by 9%–13% and 5.9%–9.8%, respectively. Nearshore sediment flux could sustain and influence harmful algal blooms that occur in this lake, and these fluxes could be influenced by water level management.

Minnesota↗

USGS2025

Unlocking ecological insights from sub-seasonal visible-to-shortwave infrared imaging spectroscopy: The SHIFT campaign

We stand at the threshold of a transformative era in Earth observation, marked by space-borne visible-to-shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometers that promise consistent global observations of ecosystem function, phenology, and inter- and intra-annual change. However, the full value of repeat spectroscopy, the information embedded within different temporal scales, and the reliability of existing algorithms across diverse ecosystem types and vegetation phenophases have remained elusive due to the absence of suitable sub-seasonal spectroscopy data. In response, the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) High-Frequency Time Series (SHIFT) campaign was initiated during late February 2022 in Santa Barbara County, California. SHIFT, designed to support NASA's SBG mission, addressed mission scoping, scientific advancement, applications development, and community building. This ambitious endeavor included weekly Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) imagery acquisitions for 13 weeks (spanning February 24 to May 29, 2022), accompanied by coordinated terrestrial vegetation and coastal aquatic data collection. We describe the rich datasets collected and illustrate how the complex sub-seasonal patterns of change can be linked to biological science and applications, surpassing insights from multispectral observations. Leveraging open-source processing methods and cloud-based analysis tools, the SHIFT campaign showcases the readiness of the scientific community to harness ecological insights from remotely sensed hyperspectral time series. We provide an overview of SHIFT's goals, data collections, preliminary results, and the collaborative efforts of early career scientists committed to unlocking the transformative potential of high-frequency time series data from space-borne VSWIR imaging spectrometers.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2025

Limited directional change in mountaintop plant communities over 19 years in western North America

Plant communities on mountain summits are commonly long-lived, cold-adapted perennials with low dispersal ability. These characteristics in tandem with limited area to track suitable conditions make these mountain communities potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, and indicators of climate change impacts. We investigated temporal changes in plant communities on 29 arid mountain summits across eight study regions in California and Nevada, USA, over 19 years. We analyzed community dynamics in terms of species richness, turnover, gain and loss of functional groups, and relative abundance of functional groups. First, across all summits and regions, we found no change in species richness over time. Second, there was relatively high species turnover (21.7%) between the five-year survey intervals, but turnover was not significantly different from random expectation. Within functional groups, forbs had the greatest proportion of gains and cushions had the greatest proportion of losses. Third, qualitative abundance categories presented a small but consistent signal of decrease in the relative abundance of cushions, graminoids, and shrubs/trees over the study period. Across a broad geographic scale and nearly two decades, community patterns were widely similar, suggesting that climate change has not impacted local colonization or extirpation of mountaintop species in this arid region. These findings support observed differences in response to climate change between temperature-limited and water-limited regions globally, and highlight the lagged and variable nature of high-elevation systems. Our findings fill a major data gap on alpine plant community responses to climate change in the western United States and bolster the importance of long-term ecological monitoring with rapid climate change.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2025

Too much and not enough data: Challenges and solutions for generating information in freshwater research and monitoring

Evaluating progress toward achieving freshwater conservation and sustainability goals requires transforming diverse types of data into useful information for scientists, managers, and other interest groups. Despite substantial increases in the volume of freshwater data collected worldwide, many regions and ecosystems still lack sufficient data collection and/or data access. We illustrate how these data challenges result from a diverse set of underlying mechanisms and propose solutions that can be applied by individuals or organizations. We discuss creative approaches to address data scarcity, including the use of community science, remote-sensing, environmental sensors, and legacy datasets. We highlight the importance of coordinated data collection efforts among groups and training programs to improve data access. At the institutional level, we emphasize the power of prioritizing data curation, incentivizing data publication, and promoting research that enhances data coverage and representativeness. Some of these strategies involve technological and analytical approaches, but many necessitate shifting the priorities and incentives of organizations such as academic and government research institutions, monitoring groups, journals, and funding agencies. Our overarching goal is to stimulate discussion to narrow the data disparities hindering the understanding of freshwater processes and their change across spatial scales.

Nahuel Huapi Lake, Lake Tahoe↗

USGS2025

Cytotype and local adaptation drive phenotypic variation in two subspecies of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata)

Big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) is a widespread and locally dominant shrub throughout many ecosystems in western North America. A. tridentata ssps. tridentata and wyomingensis are two subspecies whose populations occupy the warm-arid regions of the species range and whose trailing edge is threatened by climate change. Previous studies have presented conflicting results in relation to the genetic control of physiological variation in A. tridentata . Understanding how different genetic factors contribute to physiological variation can provide insight into how these two subspecies may respond to future climate change. To explore possible variation among and within two subspecies of A. tridentata , we measured physiological and morphological traits in A . t . tridentata and A. t. wyomingensis during mid-summer (July), seven years after establishment in a common garden. Contributions to trait variation were quantified for both genetic (subspecies and cytotype) and environmental (climate-of-origin) factors. Measurements revealed an unequal contribution to phenotypic variation by subspecies, cytotype, and climate-of-origin. Ploidy and climate-of-origin were more important than subspecies in driving phenotypic variation in A. tridentata. These findings suggest that A. tridentata has a highly plastic drought response, or that culling (mortality over time due to environmental factors) in the common garden over seven years has led to a lack of genetic diversity within the garden. Understanding what factors drive phenotypic expression in big sagebrush can provide better insight into how climate change may affect migration and extirpation and may aid in the effectiveness of restoration efforts.

Idaho↗

USGS2025

Assessing the effects of climate and visitor use on amphibian occupancy in a protected landscape with long-term data

Determining where animals are, and if they are persisting across protected landscapes, is necessary to implement appropriate management and conservation actions. For long-lived animals and those with boom-and-bust life histories, perspective across time contributes to discerning temporal trends in occupancy and persistence, and potentially in identifying mechanisms affecting those parameters. Long-term data are particularly useful in protected areas to quantify indicators of change that may be less obvious or occur more slowly. We used long-term amphibian data from Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) in a Bayesian occupancy modeling framework to estimate changes in occupancy, colonization, and persistence of amphibians over three decades and to explore the effects of climate, landscape change, and visitor use as mechanisms behind observed changes. Our results indicate that colonization and persistence are low and/or declining for Pseudacris maculata , Lithobates sylvaticus , and Ambystoma mavortium , and that occupied catchments are increasingly isolated. We found visitor use to have a consistently negative effect on occupancy and persistence of amphibians in RMNP, and that all species are more likely to occupy catchments with more complex habitat and a higher proportion of wetlands. While these results are sobering, they also provide a way forward where mitigation efforts can target identified drivers of change.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

Atypical winter coat coloration of snowshoe hares near the southern extent of their range

Many species have a variety of adaptations to winter weather, but these adaptations could become maladaptive if winter snowfall and temperatures are more variable. Snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus ) molt from a brown summer coat to a white winter coat, but reductions in snow cover could result in phenotypic mismatch, which in turn could reduce survival. Hare populations near the southern extent of their range might be especially sensitive to phenotypic mismatch because of variable winter weather, but variation in winter coat coloration could allow for these populations to persist in inconsistent snow cover conditions. Using capture data ( n = 59 individual hares) spanning 8 years, we document the prevalence of three atypical winter coat color phenotypes (brown bodies, brown-ringed eyes, and brown ears) in a snowshoe hare population in Pennsylvania. The majority of hares in our study (84.7%) exhibited at least one of these atypical winter phenotypes, with a high probability of hares having brown-ringed eyes or brown ears, and four hares remaining brown during the winter. The presence and high prevalence of non-white winter phenotypes could be beneficial for hares in this population if winters are mild with low snow cover. If these phenotypes have a genetic basis, there may be evolutionary potential for hares to persist near the southern extent of their range, even in the face of changing winters.

Pennsylvania↗