SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Demography”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Spatial demographic models to inform conservation planning of golden eagles in renewable energy landscapes

Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land use and anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated into a spatial demographic model to investigate effects on population dynamics of Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). Our study focused on a population of Golden Eagles exposed to risks associated with rapid increases in renewable energy development in southern California, U.S.A. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model that integrated empirical data on demography of Golden Eagles with spatial data on the arrangement of nesting habitats, prey resources, and planned renewable energy development sites. Our model permitted simulated eagles of different stage-classes to disperse, establish home ranges, acquire prey resources, prospect for breeding sites, and reproduce. The distribution of nesting habitats, prey resources, and threats within each individual's home range influenced movement, reproduction, and survival. We used our model to explore potential effects of alternative disturbance scenarios, and proposed conservation strategies, on the future distribution and abundance of Golden Eagles in the study region. Results from our simulations suggest that probable increases in mortality associated with renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., collisions with wind turbines and vehicles, electrocution on power poles) could have negative consequences for population trajectories, but that site-specific conservation actions could reduce the magnitude of negative effects. Our study demonstrates the use of a flexible and expandable modeling framework to incorporate spatially dependent processes when determining relative effects of proposed management options to Golden Eagles and their habitats.

California↗

USGS2025

Rare milkvetch (Astragalus) persistence at a utility-scale solar energy facility in the Mojave Desert

Utility-scale solar energy (USSE) development is driving the projected growth in global renewable energy capacity but comes with environmental tradeoffs. New, alternative construction methods are promoted to minimize impacts to soils, vegetation, and hydrology; however, the disturbance created by these methods requires further investigation. We evaluated the population of a rare annual species, threecorner milkvetch ( Astragalus geyeri var. triquetrus ), at the Gemini Solar Project in the Mojave Desert, USA, two years after construction. Gemini was required to minimize disturbance in the threecorner milkvetch habitat, providing a unique opportunity to study the plant population and life history characteristics of a rare plant species under novel construction methods. Our objectives were to compare plant population characteristics of threecorner milkvetch inside and outside the Gemini footprint and in different photovoltaic (PV) panel microsites (interspace, panel dripline, under panel). We hypothesized that 1) threecorner milkvetch would have lower survival, reproduction, and growth, and a later phenology, inside compared to outside the facility, and 2) that these negative effects on plant demography and phenology would intensify with increasing proximity to photovoltaic panels in the solar array due to an increasing effect of disturbance and reduction of light and water availability. The results of this 1-year study during a favorable year of rainfall demonstrate the persistence of a rare Mojave annual plant species within an altered environment at a USSE facility. We found that threecorner milkvetch had an earlier phenology, grew larger, and had a higher fecundity at Gemini compared to plants off-site. Survivorship between the two populations, however, was not significantly different. Although growth and reproductive metrics were not correlated with distance to panel, minimal threecorner milkvetch emergence occurred directly under the PV panels and along their driplines, indicating a potential loss of suitable habitat if this pattern becomes more widespread in space or through time. Novel construction techniques for USSE could be considered moving forward to minimize impact on aboveground vegetation and maintain viable seed banks. The results of this study can assist land managers in making decisions about USSE development as the demand grows.

Nevada↗

USGS2015

Direct and indirect effects of environmental variability on growth and survivorship of pre-reproductive Joshua trees, Yucca brevifolia Engelm (Agavaceae)

• Premise of study: Accurate demographic information about long-lived plant species is important for understanding responses to large-scale disturbances, including climate change. It is challenging to obtain these data from desert perennial plants because seedling establishment is exceptionally rare, and estimates of survival are lacking for their vulnerable early stages. Desert wildfires, urbanization, and climate change influence the persistence of the long-lived Yucca brevifolia . Quantitative demographic attributes are crucial for understanding how populations will respond to disturbances and where populations will recede or advance under future climate scenarios. • Methods: We measured survival in a cohort of 53 pre-reproductive Y. brevifolia at Yucca Flat, Nevada, USA, for 22 yr and recorded their growth, nurse-plant relationships, and herbivory. • Key results: Herbivory by black-tailed jackrabbits ( Lepus californicus ) caused severe losses of plants during the first and second years (45% and 31%, respectively). Surviving plants experienced <2.5% annual mortality. Survival for the population was 19% over 22 yr. Plants <25 cm in height had lower life expectancy. Average growth rate (± SD) for plants that survived to the last census was 3.12 ± 1.96 cm yr −1 , and growth rates were positively associated with precipitation. Thirty-year-old Y. brevifolia had not yet reproduced. • Conclusions: A rare establishment event for Y. brevifolia during 1983–1984, triggered by above-average summer rainfall, provided a unique opportunity to track early survival and growth. Infrequent but acute episodes of herbivory during drought influenced demography for decades. Variability in survival among young Y. brevifolia indicates that size-dependent demographic variables will improve forecasts for this long-lived desert species under predicted regional climate change.

Nevada↗

USGS2016

Louisiana waterthrush and benthic macroinvertebrate response to shale gas development

Because shale gas development is occurring over large landscapes and consequently is affecting many headwater streams, an understanding of its effects on headwater-stream faunal communities is needed. We examined effects of shale gas development (well pads and associated infrastructure) on Louisiana waterthrush Parkesia motacilla and benthic macroinvertebrate communities in 12 West Virginia headwater streams in 2011. Streams were classed as impacted ( n = 6) or unimpacted ( n = 6) by shale gas development. We quantified waterthrush demography (nest success, clutch size, number of fledglings, territory density), a waterthrush Habitat Suitability Index, a Rapid Bioassessment Protocol habitat index, and benthic macroinvertebrate metrics including a genus-level stream-quality index for each stream. We compared each benthic metric between impacted and unimpacted streams with a Student's t -test that incorporated adjustments for normalizing data. Impacted streams had lower genus-level stream-quality index scores; lower overall and Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera richness; fewer intolerant taxa, more tolerant taxa, and greater density of 0–3-mm individuals ( P ≤ 0.10). We then used Pearson correlation to relate waterthrush metrics to benthic metrics across the 12 streams. Territory density (no. of territories/km of stream) was greater on streams with higher genus-level stream-quality index scores; greater density of all taxa and Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa; and greater biomass. Clutch size was greater on streams with higher genus-level stream-quality index scores. Nest survival analyses ( n = 43 nests) completed with Program MARK suggested minimal influence of benthic metrics compared with nest stage and Habitat Suitability Index score. Although our study spanned only one season, our results suggest that shale gas development affected waterthrush and benthic communities in the headwater streams we studied. Thus, these ecological effects of shale gas development warrant closer examination.

West Virginia↗

USGS2025

Laying sequence and oceanographic factors affect egg size in Scripps's Murrelets Synthliboramphus scrippsi at Santa Barbara Island

Egg size is an important avian life history parameter, with larger eggs indicating greater investment of resources in the chick. Prey availability can affect such investment. We investigated the effects of oceanographic conditions and laying sequence on Scripps's Murrelet Synthliboramphus scrippsi egg size at Santa Barbara Island, California during 2009-2017. We evaluated oceanographic covariates characterizing marine productivity for their effect on egg size, including large-scale oceanographic indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. We also evaluated a larval anchovy catch-per-unit-effort (ANCHL) index and the Biologically Effective Upwelling Transport Index (BEUTI) as region-wide indices, and sea surface temperature (SST) as a local index. We evaluated oceanographic conditions over the entire year and during the breeding season only. We also considered the contribution of lagged effects to oceanographic conditions. Our results generally ran counter to our hypothesis that increased ocean productivity should increase egg size. Based on Akaike's Information Criterion, the four top-ranked models provided support for an association between larger eggs and conditions indicative of lower oceanographic productivity, including lower values of BEUTI and NPGO, and higher values of ONI, PDO, and SST. The only result that supported our hypothesis was a positive relationship between ANCHL and egg size, although the 95% confidence interval for the effect included 0. The strongest relationship detected was between laying sequence and egg size, as second eggs were considerably larger than first eggs. Our results indicate substantial complexity in the relationship between ocean productivity and seabird demography. A better understanding of how ocean productivity affects seabird breeding outcomes through multiple mechanisms will help improve predictions of how seabirds will respond to changing ocean conditions.

California↗

USGS2020

Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover

The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models used for global assessments tend to fall back on simplified assumptions of the turnover rates of biomass and soil carbon pools. In this study, the biomass carbon turnover times calculated by an ensemble of contemporary terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are analysed to assess their current capability to accurately estimate biomass carbon turnover times in forests and how these times are anticipated to change in the future. Modelled baseline 1985–2014 global average forest biomass turnover times vary from 12.2 to 23.5 years between TBMs. TBM differences in phenological processes, which control allocation to, and turnover rate of, leaves and fine roots, are as important as tree mortality with regard to explaining the variation in total turnover among TBMs. The different governing mechanisms exhibited by each TBM result in a wide range of plausible turnover time projections for the end of the century. Based on these simulations, it is not possible to draw robust conclusions regarding likely future changes in turnover time, and thus biomass change, for different regions. Both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time are strongly linked to model assumptions concerning plant functional type distributions and their controls. Thirteen model-based hypotheses of controls on turnover time are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations. Efforts to resolve uncertainty in turnover time, and thus its impacts on the future evolution of biomass carbon stocks across the world's forests, will need to address both mortality and establishment components of forest demography, as well as allocation of carbon to woody versus non-woody biomass growth.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2015

Density dependence and phenological mismatch: consequences for growth and survival of sub-arctic nesting Canada Geese

The extent to which species are plastic in the timing of their reproductive events relative to phenology suggests how change might affect their demography. An ecological mismatch between the timing of hatch for avian species and the peak availability in quality and quantity of forage for rapidly growing offspring might ultimately affect recruitment to the breeding population unless individuals can adjust the timing of breeding to adapt to changing phenology. We evaluated effects of goose density, hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology, and weather indices on annual growth of pre-fledging Canada geese (Branta canadensis) from 1993-2010 at Akimiski Island, Nunavut. We found effects of both density and hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology; the earlier that eggs hatched relative to forage plant phenology, the larger the mean gosling size near fledging. Goslings were smallest in years when hatch was latest relative to forage plant phenology, and when local abundance of breeding adults was highest. We found no evidence for a trend in relative hatch timing, but it was apparent that in early springs, Canada geese tended to hatch later relative to vegetation phenology, suggesting that geese were not always able to adjust the timing of nesting as rapidly as vegetation phenology was advanced. Analyses using forage biomass information revealed a positive relationship between gosling size and per capita biomass availability, suggesting a causal mechanism for the density effect. The effects of weather parameters explained additional variation in mean annual gosling size, although total June and July rainfall had a small additive effect on gosling size. Modelling of annual first year survival probability using mean annual gosling size as an annual covariate revealed a positive relationship, suggesting that reduced gosling growth negatively impacts recruitment.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

USGS2019

Residency, recruitment, and stopover duration of hatch-year Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) during the pre-migratory staging period

Avian migratory stopover and staging sites represent important energetic bottlenecks and may influence population dynamics as much as breeding or wintering periods. Roseate terns ( Sterna dougallii ) are an ideal species to examine staging demography because >70% of the entire endangered northwest Atlantic population stages at accessible locations around Cape Cod, MA before southward migration. We quantified hatch-year tern weekly residency, weekly recruitment rate into the staging population, and derived weekly staging population growth rate during two post-breeding, pre-migratory staging seasons (2014 and 2015) at Cape Cod National Seashore. We also estimated hatch-year tern staging duration at Cape Cod staging grounds. Tern residency probability at Cape Cod National Seashore during 2014 and 2015 was nearly 1 during the first weeks of the season and decreased steadily over the last four weeks to ~0.5 in the final week of the study. Recruitment rates into the staging population, representing the weekly per capita increase in hatch-year terns during the staging season, indicated that most terns arrived on the staging grounds during the first weeks of the staging season (16 July–19 August). We also identified differences in staging duration between birds from the two breeding regions. Hatch-year terns from the southernmost region spent less time staging at Cape Cod National Seashore than their northern counterparts in both 2014 and 2015. These differences may indicate alternative staging strategies for individuals originating in different regions and possibly reveal differences in conditions between these areas; for example, in the availability of ephemeral prey fish.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2018

Southeast

The Southeast includes vast expanses of coastal and inland low-lying areas, the southern portion of the Appalachian Mountains, numerous high-growth metropolitan areas, and large rural expanses. These beaches and bayous, fields and forests, and cities and small towns are all at risk from a changing climate. While some climate change impacts, such as sea level rise and extreme downpours, are being acutely felt now, others, like increasing exposure to dangerous high temperatures, humidity, and new local diseases, are expected to become more significant in the coming decades. While all regional residents and communities are potentially at risk for some impacts, some communities or populations are at greater risk due to their locations, services available to them, and economic situations. Observed warming since the mid-20th century has been uneven in the Southeast region, with average daily minimum temperatures increasing three times faster than average daily maximum temperatures. The number of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Climate model simulations of future conditions project increases in both temperature and extreme precipitation. Trends towards a more urbanized and denser Southeast are expected to continue, creating new climate vulnerabilities. Cities across the Southeast are experiencing more and longer summer heat waves. Vector-borne diseases pose a greater risk in cities than in rural areas because of higher population densities and other human factors, and the major urban centers in the Southeast are already impacted by poor air quality during warmer months. Increasing precipitation and extreme weather events will likely impact roads, freight rail, and passenger rail, which will likely have cascading effects across the region. Infrastructure related to drinking water and wastewater treatment also has the potential to be compromised by climate-related events. Increases in extreme rainfall events and high tide coastal floods due to future climate change will impact the quality of life of permanent residents as well as tourists visiting the low-lying and coastal regions of the Southeast. Sea level rise is contributing to increased coastal flooding in the Southeast, and high tide flooding already poses daily risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation, and ecosystems in the region. There have been numerous instances of intense rainfall events that have had devastating impacts on inland communities in recent years. The ecological resources that people depend on for livelihoods, protection, and well-being are increasingly at risk from the impacts of climate change. Sea level rise will result in the rapid conversion of coastal, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems to tidal saline habitats. Reductions in the frequency and intensity of cold winter temperature extremes are already allowing tropical and subtropical species to move northward and replace more temperate species. Warmer winter temperatures are also expected to facilitate the northward movement of problematic invasive species, which could transform natural systems north of their current distribution. In the future, rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire practices. Many in rural communities are maintaining connections to traditional livelihoods and relying on natural resources that are inherently vulnerable to climate changes. Climate trends and possible climate futures show patterns that are already impacting—and are projected to further impact—rural sectors, from agriculture and forestry to human health and labor productivity. Future temperature increases are projected to pose challenges to human health. Increases in temperatures, water stress , freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems. Rural communities tend to be more vulnerable to these changes due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence. In fact, a recent economic study using a higher scenario (RCP8.5) suggests that the southern and midwestern populations are likely to suffer the largest losses from future climate changes in the United States. Climate change tends to compound existing vulnerabilities and exacerbate existing inequities. Already poor regions, including those found in the Southeast, are expected to continue incurring greater losses than elsewhere in the United States.

Report↗

USGS1983

Effects of the insecticide, orthene, on unconfined populations of the meadow vole (Microtus pennsylvanicus). I. Capture/recapture procedures; II. Residues and cholinesterase inhibition

In 1982 and 1983. the population demography of M. pennsylvanicus was not altered significantly by single or double applications of Orthene. Although inconsistencies in population size, survival, and recruitment were not explained by differences between control and experimental grids in breeding, emigration, interspecific competition, or pesticide-induced mortality, there may have been fundamental microhabitat differences between grids in both years, and this is supported by prespray data. Slight differences between grids may also reflect the random error associated with the models used to estimate parameters. No evidence was found to indicate an effect on relative weight change or average distances moved. The level of brain AChE in 1982 during sequential days after spraying was significantly lower than control levels. However, this inhibition was not enough to cause direct mortality. Recovery of brain AChe was gradual, probably reflecting continual re-exposure through the diet. Acephate and methamidophos residues were present in the vegetation collected from sprayed areas immediately following treatment, but were reduced or absent after 8 days. AChE inhibition in 1982 and 1983 extended beyond the disappearance of residues in the vegetation. Residues were only present in the G.l. tracts of voles collected immediately following treatment due to rapid metabolism and excretion. Levels in the vegetation and G.l. tracts in 1982 and 1983 were well below the rat oral LD50 of acephate. It is concluded that Orthene applied at recommended levels, in a single or double treatment, should not affect unconfined populations of M. pennsylvanicus in Maryland old-field habitats. Furthermore, this study confirms this method as a sensitive means to determine the overall impact of insecticides on wildlife populations. However, caution must be exercised to insure that all control and experimental areas are closely scrutinized for habitat differences.

Book↗

USGS2001

Dispersal

The ability of species to migrate and disperse is a trait that has interested ecologists for many years. Now that so many species and ecosystems face major environmental threats from habitat fragmentation and global climate change, the ability of species to adapt to these changes by dispersing, migrating, or moving between patches of habitat can be crucial to ensuring their survival. This book provides a timely and wide-ranging overview of the study of dispersal and incorporates much of the latest research. The causes, mechanisms, and consequences of dispersal at the individual, population, species and community levels are considered. The potential of new techniques and models for studying dispersal, drawn from molecular biology and demography, is also explored. Perspectives and insights are offered from the fields of evolution, conservation biology and genetics. Throughout the book, theoretical approaches are combined with empirical data, and care has been taken to include examples from as wide a range of species as possible.

Book↗

USGS2009

A traditional and a less-invasive robust design: choices in optimizing effort allocation for seabird population studies

For many animal populations, one or more life stages are not accessible to sampling, and therefore an unobservable state is created. For colonially-breeding populations, this unobservable state could represent the subset of adult breeders that have foregone breeding in a given year. This situation applies to many seabird populations, notably albatrosses, where skipped breeders are either absent from the colony, or are present but difficult to capture or correctly assign to breeding state. Kendall et al. have proposed design strategies for investigations of seabird demography where such temporary emigration occurs, suggesting the use of the robust design to permit the estimation of time-dependent parameters and to increase the precision of estimates from multi-state models. A traditional robust design, where animals are subject to capture multiple times in a sampling season, is feasible in many cases. However, due to concerns that multiple captures per season could cause undue disturbance to animals, Kendall et al. developed a less-invasive robust design (LIRD), where initial captures are followed by an assessment of the ratio of marked-to-unmarked birds in the population or sampled plot. This approach has recently been applied in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands to populations of Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed (P. nigripes) albatrosses. In this paper, we outline the LIRD and its application to seabird population studies. We then describe an approach to determining optimal allocation of sampling effort in which we consider a non-robust design option (nRD), and variations of both the traditional robust design (RD), and the LIRD. Variations we considered included the number of secondary sampling occasions for the RD and the amount of total effort allocated to the marked-to-unmarked ratio assessment for the LIRD. We used simulations, informed by early data from the Hawaiian study, to address optimal study design for our example cases. We found that the LIRD performed as well or nearly as well as certain variations of the RD in terms of root mean square error, especially when relatively little of the total effort was allocated to the assessment of the marked-to-unmarked ratio versus to initial captures. For the RD, we found no clear benefit of using 2, 4, or 6 secondary sampling occasions per year, though this result will depend on the relative effort costs of captures versus recaptures and on the length of the study. We also found that field-readable bands, which may be affixed to birds in addition to standard metal bands, will be beneficial in longer-term studies of albatrosses in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Field-readable bands reduce the effort cost of recapturing individuals, and in the long-term this cost reduction can offset the additional effort expended in affixing the bands. Finally, our approach to determining optimal study design can be generally applied by researchers, with little seed data, to design their studies at the outset.

Book chapter↗

USGS1999

Contribution of research to management and recovery of the roseate tern: review of a twelve-year project

The Northwest Atlantic population of the Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii) is largely confined to a small breeding area along the northeast coast of the USA between 40? and 42?N. This population was listed as endangered in the USA in 1987 because it was dangerously concentrated into a few breeding sites (85% on two islands in the 1980s). The nesting population in the area from Long Island, New York to Cape Cod, Massachusetts has been studied intensively since 1987, in conjunction with a program of management of the breeding colonies. This paper summarizes the results of the research program and discusses the extent to which it has contributed to effective management. The regional population now numbers about 4,000 breeding pairs and has been increasing slowly since 1987, except between 1991 and 1992 when it declined by about 17%. This decline was probably caused by Hurricane `Bob' in August 1991. Roseate Terns have specialized foraging habits and are concentrated into a small number of foraging areas near the nesting colonies. The historically important breeding sites were taken over by large gulls between 1930 and 1972. Many of the terns moved to less suitable sites near the mainland, where they are subject to predation by mainland-based predators. Despite this, Roseate Terns breed with high success at many sites. The sex-ratio is skewed towards females; about 12% of nests are attended by female-female pairs. The annual adult survival rate (0.83) is unusually low for a seabird. Most mortality occurs away from the breeding grounds, but the winter quarters remained unknown until one roost site was found in Brazil in 1995-1997. A major management goal has been to restore former colony-sites by eliminating nesting gulls, but the success of some of these projects has been questionable because they may have attracted birds to sites with higher levels of predation. Although the research has yielded important information about the biology and demography of the species, it has taken longer than expected to obtain and analyze data from multiple sites on this long-lived species. Most work has been carried out at breeding sites: critical studies on feeding ecology and winter ecology have been hampered by insufficient funding and the paucity of self-motivated biologists. Hence, the program has not yet provided all the keys to restoring the population.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2006

Grizzly bear management in Yellowstone National Park: The heart of recovery in the Yellowstone Ecosystem

Grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) management in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in the past quarter century has resulted in more than doubling of the population from around 200 to more than 500, expansion of range back into habitats where the bear has extirpated more than a century ago, and a move toward removal from the U.S. Endangered Species list. At the center of this success story are the management programs in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Regulations that restrict human activity, camping, and food storage, elimination of human food and garbage as attractants, and ranger attendance of roadside bears have all resulted in the population of grizzlies in YNP approaching carrying capacity. Recent studies suggest, however, that YNP alone is too small to support the current population, making management beyond the park boundary important and necessary to the demographics of the population as a whole. Demographic analyses suggest a source-sink dynamic exists within the GYE, with YNP and lands outside the park within the Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone (RZ) representing source habitats, whereas lands beyond the RZ constitute sinks. The source-sink demography in the GYE is indicative of carnivore conservation issues worldwide where many national parks or preserves designed to protect out natural resources are inadequate in size or shape to provide all necessary life history requirements for these wide-ranging species. Additionally, wide-ranging behavior and long-distance dispersal seem inherent to large carnivores, so mortality around the edges is virtually inevitable, and conservation in the GYE is inextricably linked to management regimes not only within YNP, but within the GYE as a whole. We discuss those needs here.

Wyoming↗

USGS2006

Modeling approaches in avian conservation and the role of field biologists

This review grew out of our realization that models play an increasingly important role in conservation but are rarely used in the research of most avian biologists. Modelers are creating models that are more complex and mechanistic and that can incorporate more of the knowledge acquired by field biologists. Such models require field biologists to provide more specific information, larger sample sizes, and sometimes new kinds of data, such as habitat-specific demography and dispersal information. Field biologists need to support model development by testing key model assumptions and validating models. The best conservation decisions will occur where cooperative interaction enables field biologists, modelers, statisticians, and managers to contribute effectively. We begin by discussing the general form of ecological models—heuristic or mechanistic, "scientific" or statistical—and then highlight the structure, strengths, weaknesses, and applications of six types of models commonly used in avian conservation: (1) deterministic single-population matrix models, (2) stochastic population viability analysis (PVA) models for single populations, (3) metapopulation models, (4) spatially explicit models, (5) genetic models, and (6) species distribution models. We end by considering their unique attributes, determining whether the assumptions that underlie the structure are valid, and testing the ability of the model to predict the future correctly.

Ornithological Monographs↗

USGS2001

Population size, survival, and movements of white-cheeked pintails in Eastern Puerto Rico

We estimated numbers and survival of White-cheeked Pintails (Anas bahamensis) in eastern Puerto Rico during 1996-1999. We also quantified their movements between Culebra Island and the Humacao Wildlife Refuge, Puerto Rico. Mark-resight population size estimates averaged 1020 pintails during nine, 3-month sampling periods from January 1997 to June 1999. On average, minimum regional counts were 38 % lower than mark-resight estimates (mean = 631). Adult survival was 0.51 ?? 0.09 (SE). This estimate is similar for other anatids of similar size but broader geographic distribution. The probability of pintails surviving and staying in Humacao was hiher (67 %) than for counterparts on Culebra (31 %). The probability of surviving and moving from Culebra to Humacao (41 %) was higher than from Humacao to Culebra (20 %). These findings, and available information on reproduction, indicate that the Humacao Wildlife Refuge refuge has an important role in the regional demography of pintails. Our findings on population numbers and regional survival are encouraging, given concerns about the species' status due to habitat loss and hunting. However, our outlook for the species is tempered by the remaining gaps in the population dynamics of pintails; for examples, survival estimates of broods and fledglings (age 0-1) are needed for a comprehensive status assessment. Until additional data are obtianed, White-cheeked Pintails should continue to be protectd from hunting in Puerto Rico.

Caribbean Journal of Science↗

USGS2003

The economics of protecting tiger populations: Linking household behavior to poaching and prey depletion

The tiger (Panthera tigris) is classified as endangered and populations continue to decline. This paper presents a formal economic analysis of the two most imminent threats to the survival of wild tigers: poaching tigers and hunting their prey. A model is developed to examine interactions between tigers and farm households living in and around tiger habitats. The analysis extends the existing literature on tiger demography, incorporating predator-prey interactions and exploring the sensitivity of tiger populations to key economic parameters. The analysis aims to contribute to policy debates on how best to protect one of the world's most endangered wild cats.

Land Economics↗

USGS2005

The distribution and abundance of Sphaeroma terebrans, a wood-boring isopod of red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) habitat within Tampa Bay

This study was conducted to determine the distribution, abundance, and demography of a wood boring isopod, Sphaeroma terebrans Bate, 1866, within the prop roots of the red mangrove, Rhizophora mangle L., in eight sites within Tampa Bay, Florida. Sphaeroma terebrans in Tampa Bay displayed reproductive activity year-round and bay-wide synchrony in their density pattern. On average approximately 60% (range: 25%-86%) of the intertidal aerial roots surveyed were occupied by S. terebrans. Although infestation levels by S. terebrans in Tampa Bay were similar to that of more tropical regions, the distribution of S. terebrans was not continuous throughout the study sites. A substantially higher occurrence and density of S. terebrans was found in the northern compared to more southern study sites within the Bay. Additionally, some seemingly suitable areas of the bay (i.e., Pinellas Point, Skyway, Fort Desoto) were actually unoccupied on some dates. Although sites differed in the frequency with which roots were attacked, the density of burrows and isopods in an occupied root was similar, with most attacked roots containing 3-5 burrows. The results of a transplantation experiment indicated that neither abiotic factors nor substrate quality limit the burrowing capabilities or survival of adult S. terebrans in the areas where they are absent. Instead, dispersal limitation, linked with differential juvenile survival, most likely controls isopod distribution and abundance within Tampa Bay.

Bulletin of Marine Science↗