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USGS2001

Magmatic gas scrubbing: Implications for volcano monitoring

Despite the abundance of SO2(g) in magmatic gases, precursory increases in magmatic SO2(g) are not always observed prior to volcanic eruption, probably because many terrestrial volcanoes contain abundant groundwater or surface water that scrubs magmatic gases until a dry pathway to the atmosphere is established. To better understand scrubbing and its implications for volcano monitoring, we model thermochemically the reaction of magmatic gases with water. First, we inject a 915??C magmatic gas from Merapi volcano into 25??C air-saturated water (ASW) over a wide range of gas/water mass ratios from 0.0002 to 100 and at a total pressure of 0.1 MPa. Then we model closed-system cooling of the magmatic gas, magmatic gas-ASW mixing at 5.0 MPa, runs with varied temperature and composition of the ASW, a case with a wide range of magmatic-gas compositions, and a reaction of a magmatic gas-ASW mixture with rock. The modeling predicts gas and water compositions, and, in one case, alteration assemblages for a wide range of scrubbing conditions; these results can be compared directly with samples from degassing volcanoes. The modeling suggests that CO2(g) is the main species to monitor when scrubbing exists; another candidate is H2S(g), but it can be affected by reactions with aqueous ferrous iron. In contrast, scrubbing by water will prevent significant SO2(g) and most HCl(g) emissions until dry pathways are established, except for moderate HCl(g) degassing from pH < 0.5 hydrothermal waters. Furthermore, it appears that scrubbing will prevent much, if any, SO2(g) degassing from long-resident boiling hydrothermal systems. Several processes can also decrease or increase H2(g) emissions during scrubbing making H2(g) a poor choice to detect changes in magma degassing. We applied the model results to interpret field observations and emission rate data from four eruptions: (1) Crater Peak on Mount Spurr (1992) where, except for a short post-eruptive period, scrubbing appears to have drastically diminished pre-, inter-, and post-eruptive SO2(g) emissions, but had much less impact on CO2(g) emissions. (2) Mount St. Helens where scrubbing of SO2(g) was important prior to and three weeks after the 18 May 1980 eruption. Scrubbing was also active during a period of unrest in the summer of 1998. (3) Mount Pinatubo where early drying out prevented SO2(g) scrubbing before the climactic 15 June 1991 eruption. (4) The ongoing eruption at Popocate??petl in an arid region of Mexico where there is little evidence of scrubbing. In most eruptive cycles, the impact of scrubbing will be greater during pre- and post-eruptive periods than during the main eruptive and intense passive degassing stages. Therefore, we recommend monitoring the following gases: CO2(g) and H2S(g) in precursory stages; CO2(g), H2S(g), SO2(g), HCl(g), and HF(g) in eruptive and intense passive degassing stages; and CO2(g) and H2S(g) again in the declining stages. CO2(g) is clearly the main candidate for early emission rate monitoring, although significant early increases in the intensity and geographic distribution of H2S(g) emissions should be taken as an important sign of volcanic unrest and a potential precursor. Owing to the difficulty of extracting SO2(g) from hydrothermal waters, the emergence of > 100 t/d (tons per day) of SO2(g) in addition to CO2(g) and H2S(g) should be taken as a criterion of magma intrusion. Finally, the modeling suggests that the interpretation of gas-ratio data requires a case-by-case evaluation since ratio changes can often be produced by several mechanisms; nevertheless, several gas ratios may provide useful indices for monitoring the drying out of gas pathways. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2021

The response of streams in the Adirondack region of New York to projected changes in sulfur and nitrogen deposition under changing climate

Modeling studies project that in the future surface waters in the northeast US will continue to recover from acidification over decades following reductions in atmospheric sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides emissions. However, these studies generally assume stationary climatic conditions over the simulation period and ignore the linkages between soil and surface water recovery from acid deposition and changing climate, despite fundamental impacts to watershed processes and comparable time scales for both phenomena. In this study, the integrated biogeochemical model PnET-BGC was applied to two montane forest watersheds in the Adirondack region of New York, USA to evaluate the recovery of surface waters from historical acidification in response to possible future changes in climate and atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition. Statistically downscaled climate scenarios on average project warmer temperatures and greater precipitation for the Adirondack by the end of the century. Model simulations suggest under constant climate, acid-sensitive Buck Creek would gain 12.8 μeq L −1 of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) by 2100 from large reductions in deposition, whereas acid insensitive Archer Creek is projected to gain 7.9 μeq L −1 of ANC. However, climate change could limit those improvements in acid-base status. Under climate change, a negative offset relative to the ANC increases with no climate change are projected for both streams by 2100. In acid-insensitive Archer Creek the negative offset (−8.5 μeq L −1 ) was large enough that ANC is projected to decrease by −0.6 μeq L −1 , whereas in acid-sensitive Buck Creek, the negative offset (−0.4 μeq L −1 ) resulted in a slight decline of the projected future ANC increase to 12.4 μeq L −1 . Calculated target loads for 2150 for both sites decreased when future climate change was considered in model simulations, which suggests further reductions in acid deposition may be necessary to restore ecosystem structure and function under a changing climate.

New York↗

USGS2014

Hydrogeology of the Old Faithful area, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, and its relevance to natural resources and infrastructure

A panel of leading experts (The Old Faithful Science Review Panel) was convened by Yellowstone National Park (YNP) to review and summarize the geological and hydrological understanding that can inform National Park Service management of the Upper Geyser Basin area. We give an overview of present geological and hydrological knowledge of the Old Faithful hydrothermal (hot water) system and related thermal areas in the Upper Geyser Basin. We prioritize avenues for improving our understanding of key knowledge gaps that limit informed decision-making regarding human use in this fragile natural landscape. Lastly, we offer guidelines to minimize impacts to the hydrothermal system that could be used to aid decisions by park management. Old Faithful sits within the Upper Geyser Basin, an area of abundant hydrothermal activity where boiling waters extend from the surface to significant depth within glacial sediments and underlying volcanic rocks. The geyser systems are directly fed by waters recharged decades to millennia ago, which are surrounded by colder, younger waters. Activity of the geysers is controlled by complex subsurface plumbing with fractures and conduits separated by regions of low permeability. Observations over the past century indicate that the thermal areas and their features are both fragile and highly dynamic. Although Old Faithful has erupted regularly for the past 150 years, it exhibits changes in eruptive behavior over time, and the average interval between eruptions has increased by about 50 percent over the past 50 years. It is clear that human activity has modified the hydrothermal system in the past; conversely, natural features pose ongoing hazards to humans and human infrastructure. Current (2014) long-term programs to measure heat discharge by chloride-flux monitoring, and more recently by thermal-infrared imaging, are crucial for assessing the status of the hydrothermal system. Complementary studies could include airborne resistivity, environmental tracers, numerical modeling, and greater emphasis on measuring the discharge of water during geyser eruptions. Such data are needed to better understand the subsurface plumbing systems that feed the geysers. Further understanding can be gained through installation of shallow groundwater observation wells, surface geophysical studies, and direct measurement of temperature gradients near the surface. It also is critical to archive existing data from all studies in a manner that will be readily accessible to scientists and decision makers. Monitoring and data collection can be achieved through the YNP geology program, by direct funding to other groups, or by encouraging and facilitating externally funded research. There are many documented examples at YNP and elsewhere where human infrastructure and natural thermal features have negatively affected each other. Unless action is taken, human conflicts with the Old Faithful hydrothermal system are likely to increase over the coming years. This is partly because of the increase in park visitation over the past decades, but also because the interval between eruptions of Old Faithful has increased, lengthening the time spent (and services needed) for each visitor at Old Faithful. To avoid an increase in visitor impacts, the National Park Service should consider 2 alternate strategies to accommodate people, vehicles, and services in the Upper Geyser Basin, such as shuttle services from staging (parking and dining) areas with little or no recent hydrothermal activity. We further suggest that YNP consider a zone system to guide maintenance and development of infrastructure in the immediate Old Faithful area. A “red” zone includes hydrothermally active land where new development is discouraged and existing infrastructure is modified with great care. An outer “green” zone represents areas where cooler temperatures and less hydrothermal flow are thought to exist, and where development and maintenance could proceed as occurs elsewhere in the park. An intermediate “yellow” zone would require preliminary assessment of subsurface temperatures and gas concentrations to assess suitability for infrastructure development. The panel recommends that YNP management follow the lead of the National Park System Advisory Board Science Committee (2012) by applying the “precautionary principle” when making decisions regarding the interaction of hydrothermal phenomena and park infrastructure in the Old Faithful area and other thermal areas within YNP.

Wyoming↗

USGS2006

Flow-specific trends in river-water quality resulting from the effects of the clean air act in three mesoscale, forested river basins in the northeastern United States through 2002

Two new methods for assessing temporal trends in stream-solute concentrations at specific streamflow ranges were applied to long (40 to 50-year) but sparse (bi-weekly to quarterly sampling) stream-water quality data collected at three forested mesoscale basins along an atmospheric deposition gradient in the northeastern United States (one in north-central Pennsylvania, one in southeastern New York, and one in eastern Maine). The three data sets span the period since the implementation of the Clean Air Act in 1970 and its subsequent amendments. Declining sulfate (SO2-4) trends since the mid 1960s were identified for all 3 rivers by one or more of the 4 methods of trend detection used. Flow-specific trends were assessed by segmenting the data sets into 3-year and 6-year blocks, then determining concentration-discharge relationships for each block. Declining sulfate (SO2-4) trends at median flow were similar to trends determined using a Seasonal Kendall Tau test and Sen slope estimator. The trend of declining SO2-4 concentrations differed at high, median and low flow since the mid 1980s at YWC and NR, and at high and low flow at WR, but the trends leveled or reversed at high flow from 1999 through 2002. Trends for the period of record at high flows were similar to medium- and low-flow trends for Ca2+ + Mg2+ concentrations at WR, non-significant at YWC, and were more negative at low flow than at high flow at NR; trends in nitrate (NO-3), and alkalinity (ALK) concentrations were different at different flow conditions, and in ways that are consistent with the hydrology and deposition history at each watershed. Quarterly sampling is adequate for assessing average-flow trends in the chemical parameters assessed over long time periods (???decades). However, with even a modest effort at sampling a range of flow conditions within each year, trends at specified flows for constituents with strong concentration-discharge relationships can be evaluated and may allow early detection of ecosystem response to climate change and pollution management strategies. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, B.V. 2006.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2010

Spatial and stage-structured population model of the American crocodile for comparison of comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) alternatives

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey Priority Ecosystems Science (PES) initiative to provide the ecological science required during Everglades restoration, we have integrated current regional hydrologic models with American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) research and monitoring data to create a model that assesses the potential impact of Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) efforts on the American crocodile. A list of indicators was created by the Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) component of CERP to help determine the success of interim restoration goals. The American crocodile was established as an indicator of the ecological condition of mangrove estuaries due to its reliance upon estuarine environments characterized by low salinity and adequate freshwater inflow. To gain a better understanding of the potential impact of CERP restoration efforts on the American crocodile, a spatially explicit crocodile population model has been created that has the ability to simulate the response of crocodiles to various management strategies for the South Florida ecosystem. The crocodile model uses output from the Tides and Inflows in the Mangroves of the Everglades (TIME) model, an application of the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator. TIME has the capability to link to the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM), which is the primary regional tool used to assess CERP restoration scenarios. A crocodile habitat suitability index and spatial parameter maps that reflect salinity, water depth, habitat, and nesting locations are used as driving functions to construct crocodile finite rate of increase maps under different management scenarios. Local stage-structured models are integrated with a spatial landscape grid to display crocodile movement behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. Restoration efforts are expected to affect salinity levels throughout the habitat of the American crocodile. This modeling effort examines how CERP restoration alternatives will affect growth and survival rates of hatchling and juvenile crocodiles, hatchling dispersal to suitable nursery habitat, and relative abundance and distribution in response to changing salinity and water depth for all stage classes of crocodiles. The response of the American crocodile to restoration efforts will provide a quantifiable measure of restoration success. By applying the crocodile model to proposed restoration alternatives and predicting population responses, we can choose alternatives that approximate historical conditions, enhance habitat for multiple species, and identify future research needs.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1992

Sampling design for spatially distributed hydrogeologic and environmental processes

A methodology for the design of sampling networks over space is proposed. The methodology is based on spatial random field representations of nonhomogeneous natural processes, and on optimal spatial estimation techniques. One of the most important results of random field theory for physical sciences is its rationalization of correlations in spatial variability of natural processes. This correlation is extremely important both for interpreting spatially distributed observations and for predictive performance. The extent of site sampling and the types of data to be collected will depend on the relationship of subsurface variability to predictive uncertainty. While hypothesis formulation and initial identification of spatial variability characteristics are based on scientific understanding (such as knowledge of the physics of the underlying phenomena, geological interpretations, intuition and experience), the support offered by field data is statistically modelled. This model is not limited by the geometric nature of sampling and covers a wide range in subsurface uncertainties. A factorization scheme of the sampling error variance is derived, which possesses certain atttactive properties allowing significant savings in computations. By means of this scheme, a practical sampling design procedure providing suitable indices of the sampling error variance is established. These indices can be used by way of multiobjective decision criteria to obtain the best sampling strategy. Neither the actual implementation of the in-situ sampling nor the solution of the large spatial estimation systems of equations are necessary. The required values of the accuracy parameters involved in the network design are derived using reference charts (readily available for various combinations of data configurations and spatial variability parameters) and certain simple yet accurate analytical formulas. Insight is gained by applying the proposed sampling procedure to realistic examples related to sampling problems in two dimensions.

Advances in Water Resources↗

USGS2016

Predictive mapping of seabirds, pinnipeds and cetaceans off the Pacific Coast of Washington

About this report This report supports Washington-led marine spatial planning and responsible stewardship of natural and cultural resources by the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary. Washington state agencies and the sanctuary continually seek the best available science to improve management of marine uses and stewardship of resources (Etheridge et al., 2010; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2015a). This report and associated data provide new, state- and sanctuary-requested information on seabird, pinniped, and cetacean distributions. Through spatial planning, information on species distributions can help to identify high-value conservation areas, minimize adverse effects of ocean uses and mitigate impacts of coastal hazards. Correspondingly, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife has already begun to use the maps of predicted relative density presented in this report to identify ecologically important areas off the Pacific Coast of Washington and apply this information to plan for offshore renewable energy development. This is the culmination of three years of work to compile information on seabirds, pinnipeds, and cetaceans, and advance a modeling framework that can integrate data sets and develop accurate predictions of relative density for important species off the Pacific Coast of Washington. Previous reports, which evaluated existing datasets of at-sea observations (Menza et al., 2014; Kracker and Menza, 2015) and presented superseded versions of seabird models (Menza et al., 2015), provided base information for this report. In addition to the maps in this published report, all new seabird, pinniped and cetacean predictions will be made publicly available as digital geospatial data through the National Centers for Environmental Information. This research supports the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Zone Management Program, a voluntary partnership between the federal government and U.S. coastal and Great Lakes states and territories authorized by the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) of 1972 to address national coastal issues. The act provides the basis for protecting, restoring, and responsibly developing our nation’s diverse coastal communities and resources. To meet the goals of the CZMA, the national program takes a comprehensive approach to coastal resource management – balancing the often competing and occasionally conflicting demands of coastal resource use, economic development, and conservation. A wide range of issues are addressed through the program, including coastal development, water quality, public access, habitat protection, energy facility siting, ocean governance and planning, coastal hazards, and climate change. Accurate maps of seabird and marine mammal distributions are an important tool for making informed management decisions that affect all of these issues.

Washington↗

USGS2002

Spatial and temporal variability of trace element concentrations in an urban subtropical watershed, Honolulu, Hawaii

Trace metal concentrations in soils and in stream and estuarine sediments from a subtropical urban watershed in Hawaii are presented. The results are placed in the context of historical studies of environmental quality (water, soils, and sediment) in Hawaii to elucidate sources of trace elements and the processes responsible for their distribution. This work builds on earlier studies on sediments of Ala Wai Canal of urban Honolulu by examining spatial and temporal variations in the trace elements throughout the watershed. Natural processes and anthropogenic activity in urban Honolulu contribute to spatial and temporal variations of trace element concentrations throughout the watershed. Enrichment of trace elements in watershed soils result, in some cases, from contributions attributed to the weathering of volcanic rocks, as well as to a more variable anthropogenic input that reflects changes in land use in Honolulu. Varying concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in sediments reflect about 60 a of anthropogenic activity in Honolulu. Land use has a strong impact on the spatial distribution and abundance of selected trace elements in soils and stream sediments. As noted in continental US settings, the phasing out of Pb-alkyl fuel additives has decreased Pb inputs to recently deposited estuarine sediments. Yet, a substantial historical anthropogenic Pb inventory remains in soils of the watershed and erosion of surface soils continues to contribute to its enrichment in estuarine sediments. Concentrations of other elements (e.g., Cu, Zn, Cd), however, have not decreased with time, suggesting continued active inputs. Concentrations of Ba, Co, Cr, Ni, V and U, although elevated in some cases, typically reflect greater proportions attributed to natural sources rather than anthropogenic input. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS1996

Physiological considerations in applying laboratory-determined buoyant densities to predictions of bacterial and protozoan transport in groundwater: Results of in-situ and laboratory tests

Buoyant densities were determined for groundwater bacteria and microflagellates (protozoa) from a sandy aquifer (Cape Cod, MA) using two methods: (1) density-gradient centrifugation (DGC) and (2) Stoke's law approximations using sedimentation rates observed during natural-gradient injection and recovery tests. The dwarf (average cell size, 0.3 μm), unattached bacteria inhabiting a pristine zone just beneath the water table and a majority (∼80%) of the morphologically diverse community of free-living bacteria inhabiting a 5-km-long plume of organically-contaminated groundwater had DGC-determined buoyant densities <1.019 g/cm 3 before culturing. In the aquifer, sinking rates for the uncultured 2-μm size class of contaminant plume bacteria were comparable to that of the bromide tracer (1.9 × 10 - 3 M), also suggesting a low buoyant density. Culturing groundwater bacteria resulted in larger (0.8−1.3 μm), less neutrally-buoyant (1.043−1.081 g/cm 3 ) cells with potential sedimentation rates up to 64-fold higher than those predicted for the uncultured populations. Although sedimentation generally could be neglected in predicting subsurface transport for the community of free-living groundwater bacteria, it appeared to be important for the cultured isolates, at least until they readapt to aquifer conditions. Culturing-induced alterations in size of the contaminant-plume microflagellates (2−3 μm) were ameliorated by using a lower nutrient, acidic (pH 5) porous growth medium. Buoyant densities of the cultured microflagellates were low, i.e., 1.024−1.034 g/cm 3 (using the DGC assay) and 1.017−1.039 g/cm 3 (estimated from in-situ sedimentation rates), sug gesting good potential for subsurface transport under favorable conditions.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2011

Excess nitrogen in the U.S. environment: Trends, risks, and solutions

It is not surprising that humans have profoundly altered the global nitrogen (N) cycle in an effort to feed 7 billion people, because nitrogen is an essential plant and animal nutrient. Food and energy production from agriculture, combined with industrial and energy sources, have more than doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen circulating annually on land. Humanity has disrupted the nitrogen cycle even more than the carbon (C) cycle. We present new research results showing widespread effects on ecosystems, biodiversity, human health, and climate, suggesting that in spite of decades of research quantifying the negative consequences of too much available nitrogen in the biosphere, solutions remain elusive. There have been important successes in reducing nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere and this has improved air quality. Effective solutions for reducing nitrogen losses from agriculture have also been identified, although political and economic impediments to their adoption remain. Here, we focus on the major sources of reactive nitrogen for the United States (U.S.), their impacts, and potential mitigation options. Sources: ??? Intensive development of agriculture, industry, and transportation has profoundly altered the U.S. nitrogen cycle. ??? Nitrogen emissions from the energy and transportation sectors are declining, but agricultural emissions are increasing. ??? Approximately half of all nitrogen applied to boost agricultural production escapes its intended use and is lost to the environment. Impacts: ??? Two-thirds of U.S. coastal systems are moderately to severely impaired due to nutrient loading; there are now approximately 300 hypoxic (low oxygen) zones along the U.S. coastline and the number is growing. One third of U.S. streams and two fifths of U.S. lakes are impaired by high nitrogen concentrations. ??? Air pollution continues to reduce biodiversity. A nation-wide assessment has documented losses of nitrogen-sensitive native species in favor of exotic, invasive species. ??? More than 1.5 million Americans drink well water contaminated with too much (or close to too much) nitrate (a regulated drinking water pollutant), potentially placing them at increased risk of birth defects and cancer. More research is needed to deepen understanding of these health risks. ??? Several pathogenic infections, including coral diseases, bird die-offs, fish diseases, and human diarrheal diseases and vector-borne infections are associated with nutrient losses from agriculture and from sewage entering ecosystems. ??? Nitrogen is intimately linked with the carbon cycle and has both warming and cooling effects on the climate. Mitigation Options: ??? Regulation of nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions from energy and transportation sectors has greatly improved air quality, especially in the eastern U.S. Nitrogen oxide is expected to decline further as stronger regulations take effect, but ammonia remains mostly unregulated and is expected to increase unless better controls on ammonia emissions from livestock operations are implemented. ??? Nitrogen loss from farm and livestock operations can be reduced 30-50% using current practices and technologies and up to 70-90% with innovative applications of existing methods. Current U.S. agricultural policies and support systems, as well as declining investments in agricultural extension, impede the adoption of these practices. Society faces profound challenges to meet demands for food, fiber, and fuel while minimizing unintended environmental and human health impacts. While our ability to quantify transfers of nitrogen across land, water, and air has improved since the first publication of this series in 1997, an even bigger challenge remains: using the science for effective management policies that reduce climate change, improve water quality, and protect human and environmental health. ?? The Ecological Society of America.

Issues in Ecology↗

USGS2010

Natural chlorate in the environment: Application of a new IC-ESI/MS/MS method with a Cl18O3- internal standard

A new ion chromatography electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (IC-ESI/MS/MS) method has been developed for quantification and confirmation of chlorate (ClO 3 − ) in environmental samples. The method involves the electro-chemical generation of isotopically labeled chlorate internal standard (Cl 18 O 3 − ) using 18 O water (H 2 18 O). The standard was added to all samples prior to analysis thereby minimizing the matrix effects that are associated with common ions without the need for expensive sample pretreatments. The method detection limit (MDL) for ClO 3 − was 2 ng L −1 for a 1 mL volume sample injection. The proposed method was successfully applied to analyze ClO 3 − in difficult environmental samples including soil and plant leachates. The IC-ESI/MS/MS method described here was also compared to established EPA method 317.0 for ClO 3 − analysis. Samples collected from a variety of environments previously shown to contain natural perchlorate (ClO 4 − ) occurrence were analyzed using the proposed method and ClO 3 − was found to co-occur with ClO 4 − at concentrations ranging from <2 ng L −1 in precipitation from Texas and Puerto Rico to >500 mg kg −1 in caliche salt deposits from the Atacama Desert in Chile. Relatively low concentrations of ClO 3 − in some natural groundwater samples (<0.1 μg L −1 ) analyzed in this work may indicate lower stability when compared to ClO 4 − in the subsurface. The high concentrations of ClO 3 − in caliches and soils (3−6 orders of magnitude greater) as compared to precipitation samples indicate that ClO 3 − , like ClO 4 − , may be atmospherically produced and deposited, then concentrated in dry soils, and is possibly a minor component in the biogeochemical cycle of chlorine.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2019

Influence of climate, post‐treatment weather extremes, and soil factors on vegetation recovery after restoration treatments in the southwestern US

Aims Understanding the conditions associated with dryland vegetation recovery after restoration treatments is challenging due to a lack of monitoring data and high environmental variability over time and space. Tracking recovery trajectories with satellite‐based vegetation indices can strengthen predictions of restoration outcomes across broad areas with varying environmental conditions. Location Southwestern United States. Methods We quantified the recovery trajectories of spring and summer soil‐adjusted total vegetation index (SATVI) for 5 to 10 year periods following post‐wildfire seeding or prescribed burns for 241 treatment sites, and related SATVI to ground‐based vegetation cover. We modeled SATVI based on time since treatment, yearly temperature and precipitation, weather extremes following treatment, soil available water capacity, invasive species presence, and treatment type. We also tested for the effects of environmental variables on trajectories, by examining interactions with years post‐treatment. Results Ground‐based vegetation cover and SATVI were highly correlated. Most treatment sites had positive recovery rates for spring (82%) and summer (85%) SATVI. Several environmental variables affected vegetation recovery trajectories as indicated by interactions with time since treatment. Yearly warm season precipitation had a positive effect on SATVI recovery that increased over time, whereas the positive effect of extreme high warm season precipitation following treatment decreased over time for both seasons of vegetation measurements. For spring SATVI, the positive effect of cool season yearly precipitation increased over time while the negative effect of extreme high temperatures following treatment became more negative over time. Invasive species presence led to higher spring, but not summer, SATVI. Conclusions Satellite‐based remote sensing is a promising tool to assess vegetation recovery following restoration treatments, particularly when it is combined with ground‐based monitoring. Our results suggest that weather extremes following restoration treatments can affect vegetation recovery trajectories and should be considered in decisions such as the timing of restoration treatments.

Applied Vegetation Science↗

USGS2001

Pesticide storage and release in unsaturated soil in Illinois, USA

The chemical fate and movement of pesticides may be subject to transient storage in unsaturated soils during periods of light rainfall, and subsequent release into shallow groundwater by increased rainfall. The objective of this study was to conduct field-scale experiments to determine the relative importance of transient storage and subsequent release of agrichemicals from the vadose zone into potential aquifers. Two field-scale experiments were conducted under a rain exclusion shelter. In the 1 x experiment, atrazine and chlorpyrifos were applied at application-rate equivalents (1.6 kg ha-1 and 1.3 kg ha-1, respectively). In the 4x experiment, atrazine was applied in an amount that was four times greater than that usually applied to fields (6.7 kg ha-1). Water was either applied to simulate rain or withheld to simulate dry periods. In the 1 x experiment, atrazine was detected in the water samples whereas chlorpyrifos was not detected in the majority of the samples. The dry period imposed on the treatment plot did not appear to result in storage of the chemicals, whereas the wet period resulted in greater leaching of atrazine, although the concentrations remained less than the Maximum Contaminant Level of 3 ?? L-1. Both chemicals were detected in soil samples collected from a 20- to 30-cm depth, but it appeared that both chemicals dissipated before the field experiment was concluded. It appeared that the one-time application of atrazine and chlorpyrifos at the label rates did not result in a sufficient mass to be stored and flushed in significant concentrations to the saturated zone. When atrazine was applied at 4x and a longer drought period was imposed on the treatment plot, the resulting concentrations of dissolved atrazine were still less than 3 ??g L-1. Atrazine was detected in only the near-surface (0 to 15 cm) soil samples and the herbicide dissipated before the onset of the dry period in the treatment plot. The results of this field study demonstrated that atrazine and chlorpyrifos were not sufficiently persistent to be stored and then released in significantly large concentrations to the saturated zone. The dissipation half-life of atrazine in the 4x application was about 44 days. This study, in addition to others, suggested that atrazine may be less persistent in surface soil than has been generally reported.

Journal of Environmental Science and Health - Part↗

USGS2018

Bias correction of simulated historical daily streamflow at ungauged locations by using independently estimated flow duration curves

In many simulations of historical daily streamflow distributional bias arising from the distributional properties of residuals has been noted. This bias often presents itself as an underestimation of high streamflow and an overestimation of low streamflow. Here, 1168 streamgages across the conterminous USA, having at least 14 complete water years of daily data between 1 October 1980 and 30 September 2013, are used to explore a method for rescaling simulated streamflow to correct the distributional bias. Based on an existing approach that separates the simulated streamflow into components of temporal structure and magnitude, the temporal structure is converted to simulated nonexceedance probabilities and the magnitudes are rescaled using an independently estimated flow duration curve (FDC) derived from regional regression. In this study, this method is applied to a pooled ordinary kriging simulation of daily streamflow coupled with FDCs estimated by regional regression on basin characteristics. The improvement in the representation of high and low streamflows is correlated with the accuracy and unbiasedness of the estimated FDC. The method is verified by using an idealized case; however, with the introduction of regionally regressed FDCs developed for this study, the method is only useful overall for the upper tails, which are more accurately and unbiasedly estimated than the lower tails. It remains for future work to determine how accurate the estimated FDCs need to be to be useful for bias correction without unduly reducing accuracy. In addition to its potential efficacy for distributional bias correction, this particular instance of the methodology also represents a generalization of nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using FDCs. Rather than relying on single index stations, as is commonly done to reflect streamflow timing, this approach to simulation leverages geostatistical tools to allow a region of neighbors to reflect streamflow timing.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2022

Predicting regional fluoride concentrations at public and domestic supply depths in basin-fill aquifers of the western United States using a random forest model

A random forest regression (RFR) model was applied to over 12,000 wells with measured fluoride (F) concentrations in untreated groundwater to predict F concentrations at depths used for domestic and public supply in basin-fill aquifers of the western United States. The model relied on twenty-two regional-scale environmental and surficial predictor variables selected to represent factors known to control F concentrations in groundwater. The testing model fit R 2 and RMSE were 0.52 and 0.78 mg/L. Comparisons of measured to predicted proportions of four F-concentrations categories (<0.7 mg/L, 0.7–2 mg/L, >2 mg/L – 4 mg/L, and > 4 mg/L) indicate that the model performed well at making regional-scale predictions. Differences between measured and predicted proportions indicate underprediction of measured F at values by between 4 and 20 mg/L, representing less than 1% of the regional scale predicted values. These residuals most often map to geographic regions where local-scale processes including evaporative discharge in closed basins or intermittent streams concentrate fluoride in shallow groundwater. Despite this, the RFR model provides spatially continuous F predictions across the basin-fill aquifers where discrete samples are missing. Further, the predictions capture documented areas that exceed the F maximum contaminant level for drinking water of 4 mg/L and areas that are below the oral-health benchmark of 0.7 mg/L. These predictions can be used to estimate fluoride concentrations in unmonitored areas and to aid in identifying geographic areas that may require further investigation at localized scales.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada,↗

USGS2021

Long-term trends in regional wet mercury deposition and lacustrine mercury concentrations in four lakes in Voyageurs National Park

Although anthropogenic mercury (Hg) releases to the environment have been substantially lowered in the United States and Canada since 1990, concerns remain for contamination in fish from remote lakes and rivers where atmospheric deposition is the predominant source of mercury. How have aquatic ecosystems responded? We report on one of the longest known multimedia data sets for mercury in atmospheric deposition: aqueous total mercury (THg aq ), methylmercury (MeHg aq ), and sulfate from epilimnetic lake-water samples from four lakes in Voyageurs National Park (VNP) in northern Minnesota; and total mercury (THg) in aquatic biota from the same lakes from 2001–2018. Wet Hg deposition at two regional Mercury Deposition Network sites (Fernberg and Marcell, Minnesota) decreased by an average of 22 percent from 1998–2018; much of the decreases occurred prior to 2009, with relatively flat trends since 2009. In the four VNP lakes, epilimnetic MeHg aq concentrations declined by an average of 44 percent and THg aq by an average of 27 percent. For the three lakes with long-term biomonitoring, temporal patterns in biotic THg concentrations were similar to patterns in MeHg aq concentrations; however, biotic THg concentrations declined significantly in only one lake. Epilimnetic MeHg aq may be responding both to a decline in atmospheric Hg deposition as well as a decline in sulfate deposition, which is an important driver of mercury methylation in the environment. Results from this case study suggest that regional- to continental-scale decreases in both mercury and sulfate emissions have benefitted aquatic resources, even in the face of global increases in mercury emissions.

Minnesota↗

USGS2013

National Park Service Vegetation Inventory Program, Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio

The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Inventory Program (VIP) is an effort to classify, describe, and map existing vegetation of national park units for the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program. The NPS VIP is managed by the NPS Biological Resources Management Division and provides baseline vegetation information to the NPS Natural Resource I&M Program. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Vegetation Characterization Program lends a cooperative role in the NPS VIP. The USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, NatureServe, and NPS Cuyahoga Valley National Park (CUVA) have completed vegetation classification and mapping of CUVA. Mappers, ecologists, and botanists collaborated to identify and describe vegetation types within the National Vegetation Classification Standard (NVCS) and to determine how best to map them by using aerial imagery. The team collected data from 221 vegetation plots within CUVA to develop detailed descriptions of vegetation types. Data from 50 verification sites were also collected to test both the key to vegetation types and the application of vegetation types to a sample set of map polygons. Furthermore, data from 647 accuracy assessment (AA) sites were collected (of which 643 were used to test accuracy of the vegetation map layer). These data sets led to the identification of 45 vegetation types at the association level in the NVCS at CUVA. A total of 44 map classes were developed to map the vegetation and general land cover of CUVA, including the following: 29 map classes represent natural/semi-natural vegetation types in the NVCS, 12 map classes represent cultural vegetation (agricultural and developed) in the NVCS, and 3 map classes represent non-vegetation features (open-water bodies). Features were interpreted from viewing color-infrared digital aerial imagery dated October 2010 (during peak leaf-phenology change of trees) via digital onscreen three-dimensional stereoscopic workflow systems in geographic information systems (GIS). The interpreted data were digitally and spatially referenced, thus making the spatial database layers usable in GIS. Polygon units were mapped to either a 0.5 ha or 0.25 ha minimum mapping unit, depending on vegetation type. A geodatabase containing various feature-class layers and tables shows the locations of vegetation types and general land cover (vegetation map), vegetation plot samples, verification sites, AA sites, project boundary extent, and aerial photographic centers. The feature-class layer and relate tables for the CUVA vegetation map provides 4,640 polygons of detailed attribute data covering 13,288.4 ha, with an average polygon size of 2.9 ha. Summary reports generated from the vegetation map layer show map classes representing natural/semi-natural types in the NVCS apply to 4,151 polygons (89.4% of polygons) and cover 11,225.0 ha (84.5%) of the map extent. Of these polygons, the map layer shows CUVA to be 74.4% forest (9,888.8 ha), 2.5% shrubland (329.7 ha), and 7.6% herbaceous vegetation cover (1,006.5 ha). Map classes representing cultural types in the NVCS apply to 435 polygons (9.4% of polygons) and cover 1,825.7 ha (13.7%) of the map extent. Map classes representing non-NVCS units (open water) apply to 54 polygons (1.2% of polygons) and cover 237.7 ha (1.8%) of the map extent. A thematic AA study was conducted of map classes representing natural/semi-natural types in the NVCS. Results present an overall accuracy of 80.7% (kappa index of 79.5%) based on data from 643 of the 647 AA sites. Most individual map-class themes exceed the NPS VIP standard of 80% with a 90% confidence interval. The CUVA vegetation mapping project delivers many geospatial and vegetation data products in hardcopy and/or digital formats. These products consist of an in-depth project report discussing methods and results, which include descriptions and a dichotomous key to vegetation types, map classification and map-class descriptions, and a contingency table showing AA results. The suite of products also includes a database of vegetation plots, verification sites, and AA sites; digital pictures of field sites; field data sheets; aerial photographic imagery; hardcopy and digital maps; and a geodatabase of vegetation types and land cover (map layer), fieldwork locations (vegetation plots, verification sites, and AA sites), aerial photographic index, project boundary, and metadata. All geospatial products are projected in Universal Transverse Mercator, Zone 17, by using the North American Datum of 1983. Information on the NPS VIP and completed park mapping projects are located on the Internet at <http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/inventory/veg> and <http://www.usgs.gov/core_science_systems/csas/vip/index.html>.

Natural Resource Technical Report↗

USGS2015

Numerical modeling of injection, stress and permeability enhancement during shear stimulation at the Desert Peak Enhanced Geothermal System

Creation of an Enhanced Geothermal System relies on stimulation of fracture permeability through self-propping shear failure that creates a complex fracture network with high surface area for efficient heat transfer. In 2010, shear stimulation was carried out in well 27-15 at Desert Peak geothermal field, Nevada, by injecting cold water at pressure less than the minimum principal stress. An order-of-magnitude improvement in well injectivity was recorded. Here, we describe a numerical model that accounts for injection-induced stress changes and permeability enhancement during this stimulation. In a two-part study, we use the coupled thermo-hydrological-mechanical simulator FEHM to: (i) construct a wellbore model for non-steady bottom-hole temperature and pressure conditions during the injection, and (ii) apply these pressures and temperatures as a source term in a numerical model of the stimulation. In this model, a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion and empirical fracture permeability is developed to describe permeability evolution of the fractured rock. The numerical model is calibrated using laboratory measurements of material properties on representative core samples and wellhead records of injection pressure and mass flow during the shear stimulation. The model captures both the absence of stimulation at low wellhead pressure (WHP ≤1.7 and ≤2.4 MPa) as well as the timing and magnitude of injectivity rise at medium WHP (3.1 MPa). Results indicate that thermoelastic effects near the wellbore and the associated non-local stresses further from the well combine to propagate a failure front away from the injection well. Elevated WHP promotes failure, increases the injection rate, and cools the wellbore; however, as the overpressure drops off with distance, thermal and non-local stresses play an ongoing role in promoting shear failure at increasing distance from the well.

Nevada↗