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At least 361 records · Page 20Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Resilience and risk: a demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears

Climate change is having widespread ecological effects, including loss of Arctic sea ice. This has led to listing of the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) and other ice-dependent marine mammals under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Methods are needed to evaluate the effects of climate change on population persistence to inform recovery planning for listed species. For polar bears, this includes understanding interactions between climate and secondary factors, such as subsistence harvest, which provide economic, nutritional, or cultural value to humans. We developed a matrix-based demographic model for polar bears that can be used for population viability analysis and to evaluate the effects of human-caused removals. This model includes density-dependence (the potential for a declining environmental carrying capacity), density-independent limitation, and sex- and age-specific harvest vulnerabilities. We estimated values of adult female survival (0.93–0.96), recruitment (number of yearling cubs per adult female; 0.1–0.3), and carrying capacity (>250 animals) that must be maintained for a hypothetical population to achieve a 90-percent probability of persistence over 100 years. We also developed a state-dependent management framework, based on harvest theory and the potential biological removal method, by linking the demographic model to simulated population assessments. This framework can be used to estimate the maximum sustainable rate of human-caused removals, including subsistence harvest, which maintains a population at its maximum net productivity level. The framework also can be used to calculate a recommended sustainable harvest rate, which generally is lower than the maximum sustainable rate and depends on management objectives, the precision and frequency of population data, and risk tolerance. The historical standard 4.5-percent harvest rate for polar bears, at a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, is reasonable under many biological and management conditions, although lower or higher rates may be appropriate in some cases. Our modeling results suggest that harvest of polar bears is unlikely to accelerate population declines that result from declining carrying capacity caused by sea-ice loss, provided that several conditions are met: (1) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the population’s intrinsic growth rate, and the corresponding harvest level is obtained by applying this rate to an estimate of population size; (2) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the quality of population data (e.g., lower harvest when data are poor); and (3) the level of human-caused removals can be adjusted. Finally, our results suggest that stopgap measures (e.g., further reduction or cessation of harvest when the population size is less than a critical threshold) may be necessary to minimize the incremental risk associated with harvest, if environmental conditions are deteriorating rapidly. We suggest that the demographic model and approaches presented here can serve as a template for conservation planning for polar bears and other species facing similar challenges.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

Testing a generalizable machine learning workflow for aquatic invasive species on Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in northwest Montana

Biological invasions are accelerating worldwide, causing major ecological and economic impacts in aquatic ecosystems. The urgent decision-making needs of invasive species managers can be better met by the integration of biodiversity big data with large-domain models and data-driven products. Remotely sensed data products can be combined with existing invasive species occurrence data via machine learning models to provide the proactive spatial risk analysis necessary for implementing coordinated and agile management paradigms across large scales. We present a workflow that generates rapid spatial risk assessments on aquatic invasive species using occurrence data, spatially explicit environmental data, and an ensemble approach to species distribution modeling using five machine learning algorithms. For proof of concept and validation, we tested this workflow using extensive spatial and temporal hybridization and occurrence data from a well-studied, ongoing, and climate-driven species invasion in the upper Flathead River system in northwestern Montana, USA. Rainbow Trout (RBT; Oncorhynchus mykiss), an introduced species in the Flathead River basin, compete and readily hybridize with native Westslope Cutthroat Trout (WCT; O. clarkii lewisii), and the spread of RBT individuals and their alleles has been tracked for decades. We used remotely sensed and other geospatial data as key environmental predictors for projecting resultant habitat suitability to geographic space. The ensemble modeling technique yielded high accuracy predictions relative to 30-fold cross-validated datasets (87% 30-fold cross-validated accuracy score). Both top predictors and model performance relative to these predictors matched current understanding of the drivers of RBT invasion and habitat suitability, indicating that temperature is a major factor influencing the spread of invasive RBT and hybridization with native WCT. The congruence between more time-consuming modeling approaches and our rapid machine-learning approach suggest that this workflow could be applied more broadly to provide data-driven management information for early detection of potential invaders.

Alberta, British Columbia, Montana↗
USGS2017

Assessment of critical minerals: Updated application of an early-warning screening methodology

Increasing reliance on non-renewable mineral resources reinforces the need for identifying potential supply constraints before they occur. The US National Science and Technology Council recently released a report that outlines a methodology for screening potentially critical minerals based on three indicators: supply risk ( R ), production growth ( G ), and market dynamics ( M ). This early-warning screening was initially applied to 78 minerals across the years 1996 to 2013 and identified a subset of minerals as “potentially critical” based on the geometric average of these indicators—designated as criticality potential ( C ). In this study, the screening methodology has been updated to include data for 2014, as well as to incorporate revisions and modifications to the data, where applicable. Overall, C declined in 2014 for the majority of minerals examined largely due to decreases in production concentration and price volatility. However, the results vary considerably across minerals, with some minerals, such as gallium, recording increases for all three indicators. In addition to assessing magnitudinal changes, this analysis also examines the significance of the change relative to historical variation for each mineral. For example, although mined nickel’s R declined modestly in 2014 in comparison to that of other minerals, it was by far the largest annual change recorded for mined nickel across all years examined and is attributable to Indonesia’s ban on the export of unprocessed minerals. Based on the 2014 results, 20 minerals with the highest C values have been identified for further study including the rare earths, gallium, germanium, rhodium, tantalum, and tungsten.

Mineral Economics↗
USGS2021

Growth inhibition of the harmful alga Prymnesium parvum by plant-derived products and identification of ellipticine as highly potent allelochemical

Prymnesium parvum is a toxin-producing harmful alga that has caused ecological and economic damage worldwide. Effective methods to control blooms of this species in the field, however, are unavailable. This study examined five natural compounds present in the invasive plant Arundo donax and one synthetic derivative (5,6-dichlorogramine) for their effect on P. parvum growth. All compounds except one inhibited growth in the following order of potency: ellipticine > > 5,6-dichlorogramine > 1 H-indole = 2,4,6-trimethyl-benzonitrile > gramine. Ellipticine was by far the most potent inhibitor, with full algicidal activity at concentrations as low as 0.04 mg L −1 and 3- and 9-day IC 50 values of 0.012 and 0.007 mg L −1 , respectively. A reduction in chlorophyll content and swimming activity and an increase in length and volume (swelling) were documented in algal cells exposed to 0.01–0.02 mg ellipticine L −1 . These results show that ellipticine is among the most potent natural algicides identified to date. The sixth compound tested, oleamide, unexpectedly stimulated algal growth above control levels. Overall, these observations confirm the existence of highly potent anti- P. parvum allelochemicals in giant reed and demonstrate potential for using products derived from this plant in the development of natural, environmentally friendly methods to control harmful algal blooms.

Journal of Applied Phycology↗
USGS2021

Field-level exposure of bumble bees to fungicides applied to a commercial cherry orchard

Bumble bees, Bombus spp. (Apidae), are important native pollinators; however, populations of some species are declining in North America and agricultural chemicals are a potential cause. Fungicides are generally not highly toxic to bees, but little is known about sublethal or synergistic effects. This study evaluates bumble bee exposure to fungicides by quantifying concentrations of boscalid and pyraclostrobin in nectar and pollen collected by colonies of Bombus huntii Greene, 1860 (Hunt bumble bee) deployed in a commercial cherry Prunus avium L. orchard in the spring of 2016. Seven colonies were placed adjacent to an orchard block that was sprayed with a fungicide mixture of boscalid and pyraclostrobin and a control group of seven colonies was placed next to an unsprayed block of orchard 400 m away from the treated block. Nectar and pollen were collected daily, beginning 1 d before spray application and continuing for a total of 12 d, and analyzed for both fungicides. Fungicide concentrations varied spatially by colony and temporally by day. The highest concentrations in nectar occurred 1 and 3 d after spraying: up to 440 ng/g boscalid and 240 ng/g pyraclostrobin. Six days after application, pollen from cherry flowers contained the highest concentrations of the fungicides: up to 60,500 ng/g boscalid and 32,000 ng/g pyraclostrobin. These data can help to determine field-level fungicide concentrations in nectar and pollen and direct future work on understanding the effects of these compounds, including their interactions with important bumble bee pathogenic and beneficial symbionts.

Journal of Economic Entomology↗
USGS2022

Germanium redistribution during weathering of Zn mine wastes: Implications for environmental mobility and recovery of a critical mineral

Germanium (Ge) is a metal used in emerging energy technologies, communications, and defense, and has been deemed critical by the United States due to its essential applications and scarce supply. Germanium is recovered as a byproduct of zinc (Zn) sulfides, and mining and processing of these materials lead to waste that could act both as a source of extractable Ge and a source for exposure to humans and ecosystems. Yet the distribution, speciation, and mineral hosts of Ge in mining-impacted areas are poorly understood. The Tar Creek Superfund Site, a former Zn mining area and Ge producer, is a natural laboratory to understand the environmental behavior and economic implications of Ge in mine wastes. We studied the distribution and behavior of Ge in solid wastes at the Tar Creek Superfund Site using bulk and microanalytical techniques. In wastes at this site we find that Ge has been redistributed from its original host, sphalerite (ZnS), to the fine-grained weathering product hemimorphite (Zn4Si2O7(OH)2·H2O), which impacts germanium's mobility, bioaccessibility, and potential for recovery. We provide chemical and mineralogical evidence of this redistribution, along with an evaluation of the oxidation state and molecular-scale substitution of Ge into sphalerite, hemimorphite, and quartz. Geochemical modeling shows that hemimorphite is more stable than sphalerite in waste piles and provides a stable secondary repository for Ge. However, hemimorphite is fine-grained, and if ingested or inhaled is readily soluble, with the potential to release Ge. Lastly, we discuss other sites internationally where similar behavior may be important. This study shows that weathering can have a significant impact on the distribution, speciation, and mineral hosts of Ge in mine wastes; directly influence mobilization from waste piles and subsequent availability to humans and ecosystems; and dictate metallurgical strategies to target Ge for recovery.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2018

Using the value of information to improve conservation decision making

Conservation decisions are challenging, not only because they often involve difficult conflicts among outcomes that people value, but because our understanding of the natural world and our effects on it is fraught with uncertainty. Value of Information (VoI) methods provide an approach for understanding and managing uncertainty from the standpoint of the decision maker. These methods are commonly used in other fields (e.g., economics, public health) and are increasingly used in biodiversity conservation. This decision analytical approach can identify the best management alternative to select where the effectiveness of interventions is uncertain, and can help to decide when to act and when to delay action until after further research. We review the use of VoI in the environmental domain, reflect on the need for greater uptake of VoI, particularly for strategic conservation planning, and suggest promising areas for new research. We also suggest common reporting standards as a means of increasing the leverage of this powerful tool. The environmental science, ecology and biodiversity categories of the Web of Knowledge were searched using the terms ‘Value of Information,’ ‘Expected Value of Perfect Information,’ and the abbreviation ‘EVPI.’ Google Scholar was searched with the same terms, and additionally the terms decision and biology, biodiversity conservation, fish, or ecology. We identified 1225 papers from these searches. Included studies were limited to those that show an application of VoI in biodiversity conservation rather than simply describing the method. All examples of use of VOI were summarised regarding the application of VoI, the management objectives, the uncertainties, models used, how the objectives were measured, and the type of VoI. While the use of VoI appears to be on the increase in biodiversity conservation, the reporting of results is highly variable, which can make it difficult to understand the decision context and which uncertainties were considered. Moreover, it was unclear if, and how, the papers informed management and policy interventions, which is why we suggest a range of reporting standards that would aid the use of VoI. The use of VoI in conservation settings is at an early stage. There are opportunities for broader applications, not only for species-focussed management problems, but also for setting local or global research priorities for biodiversity conservation, making funding decisions, or designing or improving protected area networks and management. The long-term benefits of applying VoI methods to biodiversity conservation include a more structured and decision-focused allocation of resources to research.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2024

Dam removal cost databases and drivers

The United States (U.S.) has over 90,000 dams listed in the National Inventory of Dams that provide vital infrastructure to support water management for municipal and industrial uses including irrigation, hydropower, flood control, navigation, recreation, and habitat, among other uses (NID 2023). The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operate and maintain approximately 489 and 740 dams, respectively, as well as associated structures which provide flood risk management, navigation, water supply, hydropower, environmental stewardship, fish and wildlife conservation, and recreation benefits. As dams age, structural and operational maintenance investments increase until a time when decisions on whether to rehabilitate, replace, or decommission the dam need to be made. While most dams continue to provide important value even with maintenance requirements, at least 2,000 dams have been removed in the U.S. during the past 110 years, with an upward trend in the last few decades (American Rivers 2023). Decommissioning a dam may be considered when the purpose of the dam is no longer needed or other factors such as dam safety, fish passage, recreation safety, or river restoration goals take higher priority and are more economically feasible for the dam owner long-term. Dam safety programs, river restoration programs, and asset class management programs need cost estimating methods to consider dam decommissioning when appropriate. Traditional cost estimating approaches in planning stages focus mainly on dam removal construction and may leave out or have uncertainty on important complexities that can have substantial effects on total costs and be critical for project success. As the numbers of dam removal case studies increase, a growing set of cost data has become available (Duda et al. 2023a; Tullos and Bountry 2023; American Rivers 2022). However, total costs vary over five orders of magnitude for similar size dams, and it was unclear why. We evaluated three sets of cost data that had varying level of details regarding elements contributing to dam removal costs reported by project managers working on the dam removal studies and construction means and methods. We created planning-level cost estimating tools to assist with projects needing to consider the dam removal alternative: (1) new databases of case studies (Duda et al. 2023a; Tullos and Bountry 2023); (2) scoping questions to help determine if complexity cost drivers will be present; (3) machine learning based regression trees to estimate a potential cost range; and (4) a Computation Guide for Cost Estimating that can be used to inform discussions on potential dam removal cost items, quantities, and unit costs (appendix A). The collected data showed that dam height is important but is not a reliable predictor of the removal cost without considering other elements. However, knowing some basic characteristics about the average annual flow and geographic location of the dam site, in addition to dam size, can improve the ability to use past case studies for planning-level cost estimating. By additionally incorporating scoping questions related to sediment removal, mitigation, or other infrastructure, the likelihood of complexity cost drivers and the initial uncertainty of a cost estimate can be further reduced especially for small dams. Applying the Computation Guide for Cost Estimating requires more robust information but helps users reduce cost uncertainty. This step further refines the dam removal objective, removal approach (partial or full; phased or instantaneous), engineering design, construction means and methods, quantities, and unit costs, and results in a quantitative cost estimate.

Final Report↗
USGS2012

Mapping outdoor recreationists' perceived social values for ecosystem services at Hinchinbrook Island National Park, Australia

Coastal ecosystems are increasingly faced with human impacts. To better understand these changing conditions, biophysical and economic values of nature have been used to prioritize spatial planning efforts and ecosystem-based management of human activities. Less is known, however, about how to characterize and represent non-material values in decision-making. We collected on-site and mailback survey data ( n = 209), and analyzed these data using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) GIS application to incorporate measures of social value and natural resource conditions on Hinchinbrook Island National Park, Australia. Our objectives in this paper are to: 1) determine the spatial distribution and point density of social values for ecosystem services; 2) examine the relationship between social values and natural resource conditions; and 3) compare social value allocations between two subgroups of outdoor recreationists. Results suggest that high priority areas exist on Hinchinbrook's land and seascapes according to the multiple values assigned to places by outdoor recreationists engaged in consumptive (e.g., fishing) and non-consumptive (e.g., hiking) activities. We examine statistically significant spatial clustering across two subgroups of the survey population for three value types that reflect Recreation, Biological Diversity, and Aesthetic qualities. The relationship between the relative importance of social values for ecosystem services and spatially-defined ecological data is explored to guide management decision-making in the context of an island national park setting.

Hinchinbrook Island National Park↗
USGS2015

Biogeochemical aspects of uranium mineralization, mining, milling, and remediation

Natural uranium (U) occurs as a mixture of three radioactive isotopes: 238 U, 235 U, and 234 U. Only 235 U is fissionable and makes up about 0.7% of natural U, while 238 U is overwhelmingly the most abundant at greater than 99% of the total mass of U. Prior to the 1940s, U was predominantly used as a coloring agent, and U-bearing ores were mined mainly for their radium (Ra) and/or vanadium (V) content; the bulk of the U was discarded with the tailings (Finch et al., 1972). Once nuclear fission was discovered, the economic importance of U increased greatly. The mining and milling of U-bearing ores is the first step in the nuclear fuel cycle, and the contact of residual waste with natural water is a potential source of contamination of U and associated elements to the environment. Uranium is mined by three basic methods: surface (open pit), underground, and solution mining (in situ leaching or in situ recovery), depending on the deposit grade, size, location, geology and economic considerations (Abdelouas, 2006). Solid wastes at U mill tailings (UMT) sites can include both standard tailings (i.e., leached ore rock residues) and solids generated on site by waste treatment processes. The latter can include sludge or “mud” from neutralization of acidic mine/mill effluents, containing Fe and a range of coprecipitated constituents, or barium sulfate precipitates that selectively remove Ra (e.g., Carvalho et al., 2007). In this chapter, we review the hydrometallurgical processes by which U is extracted from ore, the biogeochemical processes that can affect the fate and transport of U and associated elements in the environment, and possible remediation strategies for site closure and aquifer restoration. This paper represents the fourth in a series of review papers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on geochemical aspects of UMT management that span more than three decades. The first paper (Landa, 1980) in this series is a primer on the nature of tailings and radionuclide mobilization from them. The second paper (Landa, 1999) includes coverage of research carried out under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Program (UMTRA). The third paper (Landa, 2004) reflects the increased focus of researchers on biotic effects in UMT environs. This paper expands the focus to U mining, milling, and remedial actions, and includes extensive coverage of the increasingly important alkaline in situ recovery and groundwater restoration.

Applied Geochemistry↗
USGS2015

On formally integrating science and policy: walking the walk

The contribution of science to the development and implementation of policy is typically neither direct nor transparent. In 1995, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) made a decision that was unprecedented in natural resource management, turning to an unused and unproven decision process to carry out trust responsibilities mandated by an international treaty. The decision process was adopted for the establishment of annual sport hunting regulations for the most economically important duck population in North America, the 6 to 11 million mallards Anas platyrhynchos breeding in the mid-continent region of north-central United States and central Canada. The key idea underlying the adopted decision process was to formally embed within it a scientific process designed to reduce uncertainty (learn) and thus make better decisions in the future. The scientific process entails use of models to develop predictions of competing hypotheses about system response to the selected action at each decision point. These prediction not only are used to select the optimal management action, but also are compared with the subsequent estimates of system state variables, providing evidence for modifying degrees of confidence in, and hence relative influence of, these models at the next decision point. Science and learning in one step are formally and directly incorporated into the next decision, contrasting with the usual ad hoc and indirect use of scientific results in policy development and decision-making. Application of this approach over the last 20 years has led to a substantial reduction in uncertainty, as well as to an increase in transparency and defensibility of annual decisions and a decrease in the contentiousness of the decision process. As resource managers are faced with increased uncertainty associated with various components of global change, this approach provides a roadmap for the future scientific management of natural resources.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2016

Hydropower assessment of Bolivia—A multisource satellite data and hydrologic modeling approach

This study produced a geospatial database for use in a decision support system by the Bolivian authorities to investigate further development and investment potentials in sustainable hydropower in Bolivia. The study assessed theoretical hydropower of all 1-kilometer (km) stream segments in the country using multisource satellite data and a hydrologic modeling approach. With the assessment covering the 2 million square kilometer (km 2 ) region influencing Bolivia’s drainage network, the potential hydropower figures are based on theoretical yield assuming that the systems generating the power are 100 percent efficient. There are several factors to consider when determining the real-world or technical power potential of a hydropower system, and these factors can vary depending on local conditions. Since this assessment covers a large area, it was necessary to reduce these variables to the two that can be modeled consistently throughout the region, streamflow or discharge, and elevation drop or head. First, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission high-resolution 30-meter (m) digital elevation model was used to identify stream segments with greater than 10 km 2 of upstream drainage. We applied several preconditioning processes to the 30-m digital elevation model to reduce errors and improve the accuracy of stream delineation and head height estimation. A total of 316,500 1-km stream segments were identified and used in this study to assess the total theoretical hydropower potential of Bolivia. Precipitation observations from a total of 463 stations obtained from the Bolivian Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (Bolivian National Meteorology and Hydrology Service) and the Brazilian Agência Nacional de Águas (Brazilian National Water Agency) were used to validate six different gridded precipitation estimates for Bolivia obtained from various sources. Validation results indicated that gridded precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) reanalysis product (3B43) had the highest accuracies. The coarse-resolution (25-km) TRMM data were disaggregated to 5-km pixels using climatology information obtained from the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset. About a 17-percent bias was observed in the disaggregated TRMM estimates, which was corrected using the station observations. The bias-corrected, disaggregated TRMM precipitation estimate was used to compute stream discharge using a regionalization approach. In regionalization approach, required homogeneous regions for Bolivia were derived from precipitation patterns and topographic characteristics using a k -means clustering approach. Using the discharge and head height estimates for each 1-km stream segment, we computed hydropower potential for 316,490 stream segments within Bolivia and that share borders with Bolivia. The total theoretical hydropower potential (TTHP) of these stream segments was found to be 212 gigawatts (GW). Out of this total, 77.4 GW was within protected areas where hydropower projects cannot be developed; hence, the remaining total theoretical hydropower in Bolivia (outside the protected areas) was estimated as 135 GW. Nearly 1,000 1-km stream segments, however, were within the boundaries of existing hydropower projects. The TTHP of these stream segments was nearly 1.4 GW, so the residual TTHP of the streams in Bolivia was estimated as 133 GW. Care should be exercised to understand and interpret the TTHP identified in this study because all the stream segments identified and assessed in this study cannot be harnessed to their full capacity; furthermore, factors such as required environmental flows, efficiency, economics, and feasibility need to be considered to better identify a more real-world hydropower potential. If environmental flow requirements of 20–40 percent are considered, the total theoretical power available reduces by 60–80 percent. In addition, a 0.72 efficiency factor further reduces the estimation by another 28 percent. This study provides the base theoretical hydropower potential for Bolivia, the next step is to identify optimal hydropower plant locations and factor in the principles to appraise a real-world power potential in Bolivia.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Assessing mineral supply concentration from different perspectives through a case study of zinc

Increasing demand for nonfuel mineral commodities has increased concerns regarding the reliability of their supplies. “Criticality” assessments over the past decade have attempted to capture this concern through a set of indicators, the most common of which quantifies the risk associated with market concentration by applying the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) to the world production of a given commodity by country in a given year. Although this approach is useful, it inherently assumes that all of world production is available to the market and is thus potentially at risk. In this analysis, the HHI, as well as HHI weighted by country governance, is calculated for mined and refined zinc using the standard approach of using all world production data and comparing that to the HHI when using the best estimate of what is available to the world market. The results indicate that although the HHI of both mined and refined zinc world production has increased markedly over the past decade, the HHI for what is available to the market for mined and refined zinc has remained relatively constant and low, which is indicative of minimal supply risk. This is mainly owing to the fact that a large and increasing share of the world’s mined and refined zinc production comes from China, but that production supplies domestic consumption as well as small amounts of exports. As a result, the zinc materials that are available to the world market outside of China are produced by a relatively large and diverse set of countries. Although these analyses are specific to zinc, they are likely to be comparable for other commodities of which the largest producers are also the largest consumers and highlight the importance of examining different perspectives in criticality assessments.

Mineral Economics↗
USGS2016

Climate change implications for tropical islands: Interpolating and interpreting statistically downscaled GCM projections for management and planning

The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to decline in both model ensembles, but the decrease was more severe in the “regionally consistent” models. The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960–90 period to the 2071–99 period was 4.6°–9°C depending on the global emission scenarios and location. This warming may cause increases in CDD, and consequently increasing energy demands. Life zones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS1964

Preliminary results of hydrogeologic investigations in the valley of the Humboldt River near Winnemucca, Nevada

Most of the ground water of economic importance and nearly all the ground water closely associated with the flow o# the Humboldt River in the. 40-mile reach near Winnemucca, Nev., are in unconsolidated sedimentary deposits. These deposits range in age from Pliocene to Recent and range in character from coarse poorly sorted fanglomerate to lacustrine strata of clay, silt, sand, and gravel. The most permeable deposit consists of sand and gravel of Lake Lahontan age--the so-called medial gravel unit--which is underlain and overlain by fairly impermeable silt and clay also of Lake Lahontan age. The ultimate source of nearly all the water in the study area is precpitation within the drainage basin of the Humboldt River. Much of this water reaches the study, area as flow or underflow of the Humboldt River and as underflow from other valleys tributary to the study area. Little if any flow from the tributary streams in the study area usually reaches the Humboldt River. Most of the tributary streamflow within the study area evaporates or is transpired by vegetation, but a part percolates downward through unconsolidated deposits of the alluvial fans flanking the mountains and move downgradient as ground-water underflow toward the Humboldt River. Areas that contribute significant amounts of ground-water underflow to. the valley of the Humboldt River within the study area are (1) the valley of the Humboldt River upstream from the study area, (2) the Pole Creek-Rock Creek area, (3) Paradise Valley, and (4) Grass Valley and the northwestern slope of the Sonoma Range. The total average underflow from these areas in the period 1949-61 was about 14,000-19,000 acre-feet per year. Much of this underflow discharged into the Humboldt River within the study area and constituted a large part of the base flow of the river. Streamflow in the Humboldt River increases substantially in the early spring, principally because of runoff to the river in the reaches upstream from the study area. The resulting increase of the stage of the river causes the river to lose large amounts of water by infiltration to the ground-water reservoir in the study area. In addition, there is much recharge to the ground-water reservoir in the spring and early summer as a result of seepage losses from irrigation ditches and the downward percolation of some of the excess water applied for irrigation. The average net increase of ground water in storage in the deposits beneath and adjacent to the flood plain of the Humboldt River during the spring and early summer is about 10,000 acre-feet.

Nevada↗
USGS1967

Silver-bearing black calcite in western mining districts

The name black calcite has been applied from time to time to a dark gray to black variety of calcite or aragonite in metalliferous ore deposits in the Western States. Most of the material shows curved, roughly rhombic cleavage. The color is due to dispersed minute grains of one or more oxides of manganese, so dispersed that they rarely show any relation to cleavage surfaces or outward crystal forms.Recent study shows that the black calcite from numerous metalliferous deposits in the Western States contains small amounts of several metals, especially zinc, lead, and silver; in places, the crude black calcite contains as much as one percent silver and the black residue remaining after solution of the calcite as much as 1,500 ounces of silver to the ton. Black calcite is recognized in some deposits of Late Cretaceous to early Tertiary age where the host is Paleozoic carbonate rocks; thus far, this variety contains the larger amounts of silver. It is also present in some vein deposits where the host is generally volcanic rocks of middle Tertiary age; these are known in many districts in the southwest and even though the lead and zinc content is noteworthy, the silver content rarely exceeds one ounce to the ton (8).By studying polished sections of black calcite from the Aurora mine, White Pine County, Nevada, three silver-bearing manganate minerals have been recognized; (1) an argentian chalcophanite containing 7.5 percent silver (Ag 2 O), to which, in a following paper, the name aurorite is given; (2) argentian todorokite containing 3.9 percent silver (Ag 2 O), and (3) hydrous silver-bearing lead manganese oxide, containing 1.18 percent silver (Ag 2 O).

Nevada↗
USGS2021

Remote sensing-based actual evapotranspiration assessment in a data-scarce area of Brazil: A case study of the Urucuia Aquifer System

The large groundwater reserves of the Urucuia Aquifer System (UAS) enabled agricultural development and economic growth in the western Bahia State, in northeastern Brazil. Over the last several years, concern has grown around the aquifer’s diminishing water levels, and water balance (WB) studies are in demand. Considering the lack of measured actual evapotranspiration (ET a ), a major component of the water cycle, this work uses the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model to estimate ET a , and compares it to basin-scale estimates from the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) monthly model and from an annual WB closure method, based on gridded meteorological data and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) product. Additionally, a comparative assessment of different versions of the SSEBop parameterization was performed. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery was used to implement eight different versions of the SSEBop algorithm over the UAS between 2000 and 2013. SSEBop and SMAP ET a yielded similar seasonal patterns, with correlation coefficient (r) up to 0.65, mean difference (MD) of 0.8 mm/month and mean absolute difference (MAD) of 18.5 mm/month. Comparison of SSEBop annual ET a estimates to annual SMAP and WB closure estimates yielded low MD (12.1 and −7.3 mm/year, respectively) and MAD (82.5 and 82.8 mm/year, respectively), but also low r values (0.00 and 0.37, respectively). The comparison of the different SSEBop versions indicated the need to incorporate a calibration step of the aerodynamic heat resistance (r ah ) parameter. SSEBop results were also used for land cover and drought monitoring. Analysis indicates that agriculture, associated with an increasing trend of atmospheric evaporative demand, is responsible for the decrease in groundwater levels and streamflow in the studied time period.

Urucuia Aquifer System↗
USGS2016

A study of the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake and tsunami: Numerical and analytical approaches

The September 16, 2015 Illapel, Chile earthquake triggered a large tsunami, causing both economic losses and fatalities. To study the coastal effects of this earthquake, and to understand how such hazards might be accurately modeled in the future, different finite fault models of the Illapel rupture are used to define the initial condition for tsunami simulation. The numerical code Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) is employed to model the tsunami evolution through the Pacific Ocean. Because only a short time is available for emergency response, and since the earthquake and tsunami sources are close to the coast, gaining a rapid understanding of the near-field run-up behavior is highly relevant to Chile. Therefore, an analytical solution of the 2 ? 1 D shallow water wave equations is considered. With this solution, we show that we can quickly estimate the run-up distribution along the coastline, to first order. After the earthquake and tsunami, field observations were measured in the surrounded coastal region, where the tsunami resulted in significant run-up. First, we compare the analytical and numerical solutions to test the accuracy of the analytical approach and the field observations, implying the analytic approach can accurately model tsunami run-up after an earthquake, without sacrificing the time necessary for a full numerical inversion. Then, we compare both with field run-up measurements. We observe the consistency between the two approaches. To complete the analysis, a tsunami source inversion is performed using run-up field measurements only. These inversion results are compared with seismic models, and are shown to capture the broad-scale details of those models, without the necessity of the detailed data sets they invert.

Illapel↗