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Assessing the fit of site-occupancy models

Few species are likely to be so evident that they will always be detected at a site when present. Recently a model has been developed that enables estimation of the proportion of area occupied, when the target species is not detected with certainty. Here we apply this modeling approach to data collected on terrestrial salamanders in the Plethodon glutinosus complex in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA, and wish to address the question 'how accurately does the fitted model represent the data?' The goodness-of-fit of the model needs to be assessed in order to make accurate inferences. This article presents a method where a simple Pearson chi-square statistic is calculated and a parametric bootstrap procedure is used to determine whether the observed statistic is unusually large. We found evidence that the most global model considered provides a poor fit to the data, hence estimated an overdispersion factor to adjust model selection procedures and inflate standard errors. Two hypothetical datasets with known assumption violations are also analyzed, illustrating that the method may be used to guide researchers to making appropriate inferences. The results of a simulation study are presented to provide a broader view of the methods properties.

North Carolina, Tennessee↗

Characterization of the hydrogeology and water quality at the Management Systems Evaluation Area near Princeton, Minnesota, 1991-92

The Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) program is part of a multi-scale, inter-agency initiative to evaluate the effects of agricultural management systems on water quality in the midwest corn belt. The Minnesota MSEA project is one of five projects selected to represent the principal hydrogeologic settings and geographic diversity of prevailing management systems in the midwest corn belt. The Minnesota MSEA research area is located in the Anoka Sand Plain about 5 kilometers southwest of Princeton, Minnesota. The water-quality monitoring network within the 65-hectare research area consists of 29 observation wells and 22 multiport wells. Thirteen observation wells also are located outside the research area. Glacial deposits beneath the research area generally consist of fine to medium sand in the unsaturated zone and coarse to very coarse sand and gravel in the saturated zone. The average depth to the water table is about 3.6 meters below land surface. Ground-water recharge during 1992 was lower (4.9-13.2 centimeters) than during 1991 (11.7-25.7 centimeters) because of reduced precipitation (58.5 centimeters during 1992 and 94.5 centimeters during 1991). Estimates of saturated horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the surficial aquifer were made using five methods. Results were within about two orders of magnitude and also agree favorably with estimates from a previous study of the Anoka Sand Plain. The smallest hydraulic conductivities were obtained using laboratory analyses (0.0052 centimeters per second) and the largest estimate was obtained from results of an aquifer test (0.2820 centimeters per second). The estimate of hydraulic conductivity based on the time of travel of chloride (0.0655 centimeters per second) is considered most accurate and representative of the surficial aquifer in the research area. Anthropogenic effects of previous land use were detected in water samples collected during April 1991, prior to implementation of the MSEA farming systems. Concentrations of nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate-N) in the surficial aquifer equaled or exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended maximum contaminant level of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in 4 of the 7 wells in the research area. The maximum concentration of nitrate-N in ground water from these wells was 23 mg/L with a median of 10 mg/L. The median concentration of nitrate-N for these wells exceeded the median in wells located upgradient from the research area (2.1 mg/L). Similarly, the median concentration of chloride from wells in the research area (11 mg/L) exceeded the median in upgradient wells (3.8 mg/L). On-site sources of the elevated nitrate-N include decomposition of alfalfa, grown on-site during 1981-89, and application of nitrogen fertilizer to corn during 1990. A likely on-site source of the elevated chloride is application of potassium-chloride fertilizer to crops prior to 1991. Atrazine was detected by gas chromatography mass spectroscopy in 2 of the 7 wells in the research area at concentrations of 0.04 and 0.17 micrograms per liter (ug/L), well below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended maximum contaminant level of 3 ug/L. The median concentration in these Wells was less than the qualitative detection limit of 0.01 ug/L. Atrazine metabolite de-ethylatrazine was the most frequently detected herbicide or herbicide metabolite. De-ethylatrazine was detected in 5 of the 7 wells in the research area at concentrations ranging from 0.12 to 0.32 ug/L with a median concentration of 0.14 ug/L. Atrazine metabolite de-isopropylatrazine was not detected above the qualitative detection limit of 0.06 ug/L. The most likely sources of atrazine are applications to the research area during 1990 or from precipitation.

Minnesota↗

Using Landsat satellite data to support pesticide exposure assessment in California

Background The recent U.S. Geological Survey policy offering Landsat satellite data at no cost provides researchers new opportunities to explore relationships between environment and health. The purpose of this study was to examine the potential for using Landsat satellite data to support pesticide exposure assessment in California. Methods and Results We collected a dense time series of 24 Landsat 5 and 7 images spanning the year 2000 for an agricultural region in Fresno County. We intersected the Landsat time series with the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) land use map and selected field samples to define the phenological characteristics of 17 major crop types or crop groups. We found the frequent overpass of Landsat enabled detection of crop field conditions (e.g., bare soil, vegetated) over most of the year. However, images were limited during the winter months due to cloud cover. Many samples designated as single-cropped in the CDWR map had phenological patterns that represented multi-cropped or non-cropped fields, indicating they may have been misclassified. Conclusions We found the combination of Landsat 5 and 7 image data would clearly benefit pesticide exposure assessment in this region by 1) providing information on crop field conditions at or near the time when pesticides are applied, and 2) providing information for validating the CDWR map. The Landsat image time-series was useful for identifying idle, single-, and multi-cropped fields. Landsat data will be limited during the winter months due to cloud cover, and for years prior to the Landsat 7 launch (1999) when only one satellite was operational at any given time. We suggest additional research to determine the feasibility of integrating CDWR land use maps and Landsat data to derive crop maps in locations and time periods where maps are not available, which will allow for substantial improvements to chemical exposure estimation.

California↗

Reproductive health and endocrine disruption in smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) from the Lake Erie drainage, Pennsylvania, USA

Smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were sampled from three sites within the Lake Erie drainage (Elk Creek, Twentymile Creek, and Misery Bay, an embayment in Presque Isle Bay). Plasma, tissues for histopathological analyses, and liver and testes preserved in RNALater® were sampled from 30 smallmouth bass (of both sexes) at each site. Liver and testes samples were analyzed for transcript abundance with Nanostring nCounter® technology. Evidence of estrogenic endocrine disruption was assessed by the presence and severity of intersex (testicular oocytes; TO) and concentrations of plasma vitellogenin in male fish. Abundance of 17 liver transcripts associated with reproductive function, endocrine activity, and contaminant detoxification pathways and 40 testes transcripts associated with male and female reproductive function, germ cell development, and steroid biosynthesis were also measured. Males with a high rate of TO (87–100%) and plasma vitellogenin were noted at all sites; however, TO severity was greatest at the site with the highest agricultural land cover. Numerous transcripts were differentially regulated among the sites and patterns of transcript abundance were used to better understand potential risk factors for estrogenic endocrine disruption. The results of this study suggest endocrine disruption is prevalent in this region and further research would benefit to identify the types of contaminants that may be associated with the observed biological effects.

Pennsylvania↗

Synoptic analysis and WRF-Chem model simulation of dust events in the southwestern United States

Dust transported from rangelands of the Southwestern United States (US) to mountain snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin during spring (March-May) forces earlier and faster snowmelt, which creates problems for water resources and agriculture. To better understand the drivers of dust events, we investigated large-scale meteorology responsible for organizing two Southwest US dust events from two different dominant geographic locations: (a) the Colorado Plateau and (b) the northern Chihuahuan Desert. High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) simulations with the Air Force Weather Agency dust emission scheme incorporating a MODIS albedo-based drag-partition was used to explore land surface-atmosphere interactions driving two dust events. We identified commonalities in their meteorological setups. The meteorological analyses revealed that Polar and Sub-tropical jet stream interaction was a common upper-level meteorological feature before each of the two dust events. When the two jet streams merged, a strong northeast-directed pressure gradient upstream and over the source areas resulted in strong near-surface winds, which lifted available dust into the atmosphere. Concurrently, a strong mid-tropospheric flow developed over the dust source areas, which transported dust to the San Juan Mountains and southern Colorado snowpack. The WRF-Chem simulations reproduced both dust events, indicating that the simulations represented the dust sources that contributed to dust-on-snow events reasonably well. The representativeness of the simulated dust emission and transport in different geographic and meteorological conditions with our use of albedo-based drag partition provides a basis for additional dust-on-snow simulations to assess the hydrologic impact in the Southwest US.

southwestern United States↗

Importance of agricultural landscapes to nesting burrowing owls in the Northern Great Plains, USA

Anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation are the principle factors causing declines of grassland birds. Declines in burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) populations have been extensive and have been linked to habitat loss, primarily the decline of black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies. Development of habitat use models is a research priority and will aid conservation of owls inhabiting human-altered landscapes. From 2001 to 2004 we located 160 burrowing owl nests on prairie dog colonies on the Little Missouri National Grassland in North Dakota. We used multiple linear regression and Akaike's Information Criterion to estimate the relationship between cover type characteristics surrounding prairie dog colonies and (1) number of owl pairs per colony and (2) reproductive success. Models were developed for two spatial scales, within 600 m and 2,000 m radii of nests for cropland, crested wheatgrass (Agropyron cristatum), grassland, and prairie dog colonies. We also included number of patches as a metric of landscape fragmentation. Annually, fewer than 30% of prairie dog colonies were occupied by owls. None of the models at the 600 m scale explained variation in number of owl pairs or reproductive success. However, models at the 2,000 m scale did explain number of owl pairs and reproductive success. Models included cropland, crested wheatgrass, and prairie dog colonies. Grasslands were not included in any of the models and had low importance values, although percentage grassland surrounding colonies was high. Management that protects prairie dog colonies bordering cropland and crested wheatgrass should be implemented to maintain nesting habitat of burrowing owls. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Landscape Ecology↗

LANDSAT M. S. S. IMAGE MOSAIC OF TUNISIA.

The Landsat mosaic of Tunisia funded by USAID for the Remote Sensing Laboratory, Soils Division, Ministry of Agriculture, Tunisia, was completed by the USGS in September 1983. It is a mixed mosaic associating digital corrections and enhancements to manual mosaicking and corresponding to the Tunisian request for high resolution and the limited available funds. The scenes were processed by the Environmental Research Institute of Michigan, resampling the data geodesically corrected to fit the Universal Transverse Mercator projection using control points from topographic maps at 1:50,000 and 1:100,000 scales available in the U. S. The mosaicking was done in the Eastern Mapping Center under the supervision of the Graphic Arts System Section. The three black and white mosaics were made at the 1:1,000,000 scale and various products generated. They included color film positives at 1:2,000,000 and 1:4,000,000 scales reproducible in the Remote Sensing Laboratory in Tunis and corresponding color prints as well as tricolor prints at various scales from 1:500,000 to 1:2,000,000.

Conference Paper↗

Loss and modification of habitat

Amphibians live in a wide variety of habitats around the world, many of which have been modified or destroyed by human activities. Most species have unique life history characteristics adapted to specific climates, habitats (e.g., lentic, lotic, terrestrial, arboreal, fossorial, amphibious), and local conditions that provide suitable areas for reproduction, development and growth, shelter from environmental extremes, and predation, as well as connectivity to other populations or habitats. Although some species are entirely aquatic or terrestrial, most amphibians, as their name implies, lead a dual life and require a mosaic of habitats in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. With over 6 billion people on Earth, most species are now persisting in habitats that have been directly or indirectly influenced by human activities. Some species have disappeared where their habitats have been completely destroyed, reduced, or rendered unsuitable. Habitat loss and degradation are widely considered by most researchers as the most important causes of amphibian population decline globally (Barinaga 1990; Wake and Morowitz 1991; Alford and Richards 1999). In this chapter, a background on the diverse habitat requirements of amphibians is provided, followed by a discussion of the effects of urbanization, agriculture, livestock grazing, timber production and harvesting, fire and hazardous fuel management, and roads on amphibians and their habitats. Also briefly discussed is the influence on amphibian habitats of natural disturbances, such as extreme weather events and climate change, given the potential for human activities to impact climate in the longer term. For amphibians in general, microhabitats are of greater importance than for other vertebrates. As ectotherms with a skin that is permeable to water and with naked gelatinous eggs, amphibians are physiologically constrained to be active during environmental conditions that provide appropriate body temperatures and adequate water balance (Thorson and Svihla 1943; Brattstrom 1963; Tracy 1976). Hence, individuals require and seek specific microhabitats that maintain their preferred body temperature while at the same time reducing water loss or allowing individuals to re-hydrate. Amphibians also possess relatively few physical attributes that protect them from predators. Although they may avoid predators behaviourally or deter them by skin toxins, amphibians lack defensive shells or hardened cuticles, do not have protective teeth or claws, and most are insufficiently fast to escape predators. Hence, they are relatively dependent on sites that conceal or protect them from predation. Most amphibians also differ significantly from other vertebrates in possessing a complex two-phase life cycle: the pre-metamorphic larval (tadpole) stage and the post-metamorphic juvenile and adult stage (Wilbur 1980, 1984). Most amphibian species have two distinct econes (Heatwole 1989), each with different habitat requirements, the larvae being aquatic and the post-metamorphic animals more terrestrial. The habitats required by the two phases can differ greatly, but both are essential to the survival of a species. However, amphibian diversity is great and exceptions to this general pattern exist. For example, some species have direct development without going through a larval stage and are fully terrestrial, whereas the larvae of other species can reach sexual maturity without going through metamorphosis (i.e., neoteny) and are fully aquatic.

Book chapter↗

Loss and modification of habitat

Amphibians live in a wide variety of habitats around the world, many of which have been modified or destroyed by human activities. Most species have unique life history characteristics adapted to specific climates, habitats (e.g., lentic, lotic, terrestrial, arboreal, fossorial, amphibious), and local conditions that provide suitable areas for reproduction, development and growth, shelter from environmental extremes, and predation, as well as connectivity to other populations or habitats. Although some species are entirely aquatic or terrestrial, most amphibians, as their name implies, lead a dual life and require a mosaic of habitats in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. With over 6 billion people on Earth, most species are now persisting in habitats that have been directly or indirectly influenced by human activities. Some species have disappeared where their habitats have been completely destroyed, reduced, or rendered unsuitable. Habitat loss and degradation are widely considered by most researchers as the most important causes of amphibian population decline globally (Barinaga 1990; Wake and Morowitz 1991; Alford and Richards 1999). In this chapter, a background on the diverse habitat requirements of amphibians is provided, followed by a discussion of the effects of urbanization, agriculture, livestock grazing, timber production and harvesting, fire and hazardous fuel management, and roads on amphibians and their habitats. Also briefly discussed is the influence on amphibian habitats of natural disturbances, such as extreme weather events and climate change, given the potential for human activities to impact climate in the longer term. For amphibians in general, microhabitats are of greater importance than for other vertebrates. As ectotherms with a skin that is permeable to water and with naked gelatinous eggs, amphibians are physiologically constrained to be active during environmental conditions that provide appropriate body temperatures and adequate water balance (Thorson and Svihla 1943; Brattstrom 1963; Tracy 1976). Hence, individuals require and seek specific microhabitats that maintain their preferred body temperature while at the same time reducing water loss or allowing individuals to re-hydrate. Amphibians also possess relatively few physical attributes that protect them from predators. Although they may avoid predators behaviourally or deter them by skin toxins, amphibians lack defensive shells or hardened cuticles, do not have protective teeth or claws, and most are insufficiently fast to escape predators. Hence, they are relatively dependent on sites that conceal or protect them from predation. Most amphibians also differ significantly from other vertebrates in possessing a complex two-phase life cycle: the pre-metamorphic larval (tadpole) stage and the post-metamorphic juvenile and adult stage (Wilbur 1980, 1984). Most amphibian species have two distinct econes (Heatwole 1989), each with different habitat requirements, the larvae being aquatic and the post-metamorphic animals more terrestrial. The habitats required by the two phases can differ greatly, but both are essential to the survival of a species. However, amphibian diversity is great and exceptions to this general pattern exist. For example, some species have direct development without going through a larval stage and are fully terrestrial, whereas the larvae of other species can reach sexual maturity without going through metamorphosis (i.e., neoteny) and are fully aquatic.

Book chapter↗

Land-cover change research at the U.S. Geological Survey-assessing our nation's dynamic land surface

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed an unprecedented, 27-year assessment of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United States. For the period 1973 to 2000, scientists generated estimates of change in major types of land use and land cover, such as development, mining, agriculture, forest, grasslands, and wetlands. To help provide the insight that our Nation will need to make land-use decisions in coming decades, the historical trends data is now being used by the USGS to help model potential future land use/land cover under different scenarios, including climate, environmental, economic, population, public policy, and technological change.

Fact Sheet↗

Per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) in Pennsylvania surface waters: A statewide assessment, associated sources, and land-use relations

The objectives of this study are to identify per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in Pennsylvania surface waters, corresponding associations with potential sources of PFAS contamination (PSOC) and other parameters, and compare raw surface water concentrations to human and ecological benchmarks. Surface water samples from 161 streams were collected in September 2019 and were analyzed for 33 target PFAS and water chemistry. Land use and physical attributes in upstream catchments and geospatial counts of PSOC in local catchments are summarized. The hydrologic yield of the sum of 33 PFAS (∑PFAS) for each stream was computed by normalizing each site's load by the drainage area of the upstream catchment. Utilizing conditional inference tree analysis, the percentage of development (>7.58 %) was identified as a primary driver of the ∑PFAS hydrologic yields. When percentage of development was removed from analysis, ∑PFAS yields were closely related to surface water chemistry associated with landscape alteration (e.g., development or agricultural cropland), such as concentrations of total nitrogen, chloride, and ammonia, but also to count of water pollution control facilities (agricultural, industrial, stormwater, and/or municipal waste pollution abatement facilities). In oil and gas development regions, ∑PFAS yields were associated with combined sewage outfalls. Sites surrounded by ≥2 electronic manufacturing facilities had elevated ∑PFAS yields (median = 241 ng/s/km 2 ). Study results are critical to guide future research, regulatory policy, best practices that will mitigate PFAS contamination, and the communication of human health and ecological risks associated with PFAS exposure from surface waters.

Pennsylvania↗

Occurrence of pesticides in Oregon coastal waters

Pesticides are used globally for a wide range of applications including agricultural, forestry, roadsides, freshwater systems, and personal use. While pesticides have ensured efficient crop production, they are frequently transported away from application sites and are found in almost all terrestrial and aquatic environments. Pesticides are frequently detected in watersheds and rivers, but there is limited research on pesticide presence in United States (U.S.) marine environments. To address these data gaps, this study documents pesticide occurrence in U.S. coastal waters, providing new understanding of pesticide contamination in offshore environments. Polar organic chemical integrative samples (POCIS) were deployed at five sites along the Oregon, U.S. coast to examine the occurrence of pesticides. Between two and seven different pesticides were detected at every site, with herbicides diuron, and atrazine, and fungicides carbendazim, propiconazole, and tebuconazole being the most frequently detected at three sites. The prevalence of herbicides and fungicides in coastal waters indicates a connection between terrestrial pesticide practices and marine contamination. These findings provide new insights into the presence of pesticides in coastal nearshore and offshore waters and suggest that a comprehensive monitoring effort could enhance our understanding of sources, transport, and pesticide risks for marine species both nearshore and offshore.

Oregon↗

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch‐size‐induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland‐bird demography and could be an effective component of climate‐change adaptation.

Conservation Biology↗

Natural attenuation of chloroacetinilide herbicides in aquatic systems

Chloroacetanilide herbicides (e.g. alachlor and metolachlor) and their breakdown products are frequently found in agriculturally impacted and other natural waters. Although these compounds are usually present at low concentrations in aquatic systems, defining their fate and attenuation rate is important because they can be toxic at comparatively low exposure levels. This paper summarizes results from a four-year research program assessing factors that affect herbicide attenuation rates and breakdown product formation patterns in aquatic systems. Over 70 different field microcosms (11.3 m 3 cylindrical fiberglass tanks) were selectively manipulated (in replicate) to create nine unique aquatic ecosystems for this study. Alachlor and/or metolachlor were added to these units and transformations were observed over time. Alachlor half-lives ranged from 6.0 days to more than 100 days depending upon the temperature, oxygen conditions, and the nutrient conditions in the microcosm waters. The highest rates of alachlor decay were observed in warm, nutrient-rich, anaerobic water columns, whereas the lowest alachlor decay rates were observed under cooler, aerobic, oligotrophic water conditions. Similar relationships were observed for metolachlor, although metolachlor decay rates were about 40% slower. Our data suggest that herbicides will decay rapidly in waters that are high in nutrients possibly resulting from human activities. Alternately, low nutrient or pristine waters will have the lowest rates of herbicide decay. On a policy level, all efforts should be made to prevent exposure of comparatively pristine waters to herbicide inputs.

Conference Paper↗

Factors driving nutrient trends in streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Despite decades of effort toward reducing nitrogen and phosphorus flux to Chesapeake Bay, water-quality and ecological responses in surface waters have been mixed. Recent research, however, provides useful insight into multiple factors complicating the understanding of nutrient trends in bay tributaries, which we review in this paper, as we approach a 2025 total maximum daily load (TMDL) management deadline. Improvements in water quality in many streams are attributable to management actions that reduced point sources and atmospheric nitrogen deposition and to changes in climate. Nutrient reductions expected from management actions, however, have not been fully realized in watershed streams. Nitrogen from urban nonpoint sources has declined, although water-quality responses to urbanization in individual streams vary depending on predevelopment land use. Evolving agriculture, the largest watershed source of nutrients, has likely contributed to local nutrient trends but has not affected substantial changes in flux to the bay. Changing average nitrogen yields from farmland underlain by carbonate rocks, however, may suggest future trends in other areas under similar management, climatic, or other influences, although drivers of these changes remain unclear. Regardless of upstream trends, phosphorus flux to the bay from its largest tributary has increased due to sediment infill in the Conowingo Reservoir. In general, recent research emphasizes the utility of input reductions over attempts to manage nutrient fate and transport at limiting nutrients in surface waters. Ongoing research opportunities include evaluating effects of climate change and conservation practices over time and space and developing tools to disentangle and evaluate multiple influences on regional water quality.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

Sample project: establishing a global forest monitoring capability using multi-resolution and multi-temporal remotely sensed data sets

Quantifying rates of forest-cover change is important for improved carbon accounting and climate change modeling, management of forestry and agricultural resources, and biodiversity monitoring. A practical solution to examining trends in forest cover change at global scale is to employ remotely sensed data. Satellite-based monitoring of forest cover can be implemented consistently across large regions at annual and inter-annual intervals. This research extends previous research on global forest-cover dynamics and land-cover change estimation to establish a robust, operational forest monitoring and assessment system. The approach integrates both MODIS and Landsat data to provide timely biome-scale forest change estimation. This is achieved by using annual MODIS change indicator maps to stratify biomes into low, medium and high change categories. Landsat image pairs can then be sampled within these strata and analyzed for estimating area of forest cleared.

The NASA LCLUC Program: an interdisciplinary appro↗

Evaluation of irrigation canal networks to assess stream connectivity in a watershed

We used digital data sets, aerial photos and direct field observations in a geographical information system to evaluate the stream habitat in an Idaho watershed affected by agriculture. We found that the scale of the digital data sets affected the outcome of the assessment due to the presence of dewatered stream channels in the drainage. We analysed the spatial configuration of irrigation canals in the watershed to determine if the contemporary stream network connectivity could be attributed to human- caused or to natural hydrological processes. Many irrigation canals were significantly longer than would have been expected if these canals were constructed to capture water from the closest portion of the abandoned stream channels. Our findings provide evidence that some of these tributary streams had reaches that were likely ephemeral or intermittent at the time of canal construction. Our approach for assessing stream and irrigation network connectivity in pastoral and agricultural lands should aid managers in prioritizing the effective and appropriate reconnection efforts. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

River Research and Applications↗

Techniques to improve ecological interpretability of black box machine learning models

Statistical modeling of ecological data is often faced with a large number of variables as well as possible nonlinear relationships and higher-order interaction effects. Gradient boosted trees (GBT) have been successful in addressing these issues and have shown a good predictive performance in modeling nonlinear relationships, in particular in classification settings with a categorical response variable. They also tend to be robust against outliers. However, their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret these models. We introduce several recently developed statistical tools to the environmental research community in order to advance interpretation of these black-box models. To analyze the properties of the tools, we applied gradient boosted trees to investigate biological health of streams within the contiguous USA, as measured by a benthic macroinvertebrate biotic index. Based on these data and a simulation study, we demonstrate the advantages and limitations of partial dependence plots (PDP), individual conditional expectation (ICE) curves and accumulated local effects (ALE) in their ability to identify covariate–response relationships. Additionally, interaction effects were quantified according to interaction strength (IAS) and Friedman’s H 2 "> H 2 statistic. Interpretable machine learning techniques are useful tools to open the black-box of gradient boosted trees in the environmental sciences. This finding is supported by our case study on the effect of impervious surface on the benthic condition, which agrees with previous results in the literature. Overall, the most important variables were ecoregion, bed stability, watershed area, riparian vegetation and catchment slope. These variables were also present in most identified interaction effects. In conclusion, graphical tools (PDP, ICE, ALE) enable visualization and easier interpretation of GBT but should be supported by analytical statistical measures. Future methodological research is needed to investigate the properties of interaction tests. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗