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USGS world petroleum assessment 2000; new estimates of undiscovered oil and natural gas, including reserve growth, outside the United States

Oil and natural gas account for approximately 63 percent of the world’s total energy consumption. The U.S. Geological Survey periodically estimates the amount of oil and gas remaining to be found in the world. Since 1981, each of the last four of these assessments has shown a slight increase in the combined volume of identified reserves and undiscovered resources. The latest assessment estimates the volume of technically recoverable conventional oil and gas that may be added to the world's reserves, exclusive of the United States, in the next 30 years. The USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 reports an increase in global petroleum resources, including a 20-percent increase in undiscovered oil and a 14-percent decrease in undiscovered natural gas compared to the previous assessment (table 1). These results have important implications for energy prices, policy, security, and the global resource balance.

Fact Sheet

Environmental studies of the World Trade Center area after the September 11, 2001 attack

This web site describes the results of an interdisciplinary environmental characterization of the World Trade Center (WTC) area after September 11, 2001. Information presented in this site was first made available to the World Trade Center emergency response teams on September 18, 2001 (Thermal hot spot information), and September 27, 2001 (maps and compositional results). The Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), a hyperspectral remote sensing instrument, was flown by JPL/NASA over the World Trade Center (WTC) area on September 16, 18, 22, and 23, 2001 ( Link to the AVIRIS JPL data facility) . A 2-person USGS crew collected samples of dusts and airfall debris from more than 35 localities within a 1-km radius of the World trade Center site on the evenings of September 17 and 18, 2001. Two samples were collected of indoor locations that were presumably not affected by rainfall (there was a rainstorm on September 14). Two samples of material coating a steel beam in the WTC debris were also collected. The USGS ground crew also carried out on-the-ground reflectance spectroscopy measurements during daylight hours to field calibrate AVIRIS remote sensing data. Radiance calibration and rectification of the AVIRIS data were done at JPL/NASA. Surface reflectance calibration, spectral mapping, and interpretation were done at the USGS Imaging Spectroscopy Lab in Denver. The dust/debris and beam-insulation samples were analyzed for a variety of mineralogical and chemical parameters using Reflectance Spectroscopy (RS), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), chemical analysis, and chemical leach test techniques in U.S. Geological Survey laboratories in Denver, Colorado.

New York

The World Coal Quality Inventory: South America

Executive Summary-Introduction: The concepts of a global environment and economy are strongly and irrevocably linked to global energy issues. Worldwide coal production and international coal trade are projected to increase during the next several decades in an international energy mix that is still strongly dependent on fossil fuels. Therefore, worldwide coal use will play an increasingly visible role in global environmental, economic, and energy forums. Policy makers require information on coal, including coal quality data, to make informed decisions regarding domestic coal resource allocation, import needs and export opportunities, foreign policy objectives, technology transfer policies, foreign investment prospects, environmental and health assessments, and byproduct use and disposal issues. The development of a worldwide, reliable, coal quality database would help ensure the most economically and environmentally efficient global use of coal. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with many agencies and scientists from the world's coal producing countries, originally undertook a project to obtain representative samples of coal from most of the world's producing coal provinces during a limited period of time (roughly 1998-2005), which is called the World Coal Quality Inventory (WoCQI). The multitude of producing coal mines, coal occurrences, or limited accessibility to sites in some countries can preclude collecting more than a single sample from a mine. In some areas, a single sample may represent an entire coal mining region or basin. Despite these limitations in sampling and uneven distribution of sample collection, the analytical results can still provide a general overview of world coal quality. The USGS intends to present the WoCQI data in reports and, when possible, in Geographic Information System (GIS) products that cover important coal bearing and producing regions.

Open-File Report

An Evaluation of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 - Supporting Data

Introduction In June 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published the results of a world petroleum assessment (exclusive of the United States), based on data current through 1995 (U.S. Geological Survey World Energy Assessment Team, 2000). The assessment included the volumes of undiscovered crude oil and natural gas estimated to have the potential to be added to reserves in a 30-year time frame (to 2025). Klett and others (2005) compared the actual additions to reserves as reported from January 1996 to December 2003 (IHS Energy, 2003) with those estimates, apportioned to the 1996-2003 period (27 percent of the 30-year time frame). The present report (1) provides tabular data, not included in the 2005 report by Klett and others, that support the graphical displays and (2) briefly summarizes the interpretations and conclusions presented in the 2005 report. Approximately 28 percent of the additions to oil reserves by reserve growth and approximately 11 percent of the estimated undiscovered oil volumes that were estimated for the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (U.S. Geological Survey World Energy Assessment Team, 2000) were realized in the 8 years since that assessment. Slightly more than half of the estimated additions to gas reserves by reserve growth and approximately 10 percent of the estimated undiscovered gas volumes were realized. Between 1995 and 2003, growth of oil reserves in previously discovered fields exceeded new-field discoveries as a source of global additions to reserves of conventional oil by a factor of about 3 to 1. The greatest amount of reserve growth for crude oil was in the Middle East and North Africa, whereas the greatest contribution from new-field discoveries was in Sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest amount of reserve growth for natural gas was in the Middle East and North Africa, whereas the greatest contribution from new-field discoveries was in the Asia Pacific region. On an energy-equivalent basis, volumes of new gas field discoveries exceeded new oil field discoveries. The graphs are based on the data listed in tables 1 and 2.

Open-File Report

USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000: New Conventional Provinces

The USGS has completed a new assessment of the undiscovered oil and gas resources of the world. One hundred and five geologic provinces were analyzed for assessment. Assessment units (AU) that comprise Total Petroleum Systems (TPS) were identified and described for each of these provinces. The AU served as the basis for assessing undiscovered petroleum within these provinces, 157 TPS and 270 AU were assessed. Some of data included in the assessment include the cumulative percent of world known petroleum volume by ranked oil and gas provinces; undiscovered NGL; reserve growth of the worlds largest oil and gas fields; and world potential reserve growth for oil/gas/NGL.

Conference Paper

The derivation of World Magnetic Model 2000

This report contains a detailed summary of the data used, the modelling techniques employed and the results obtained in the production of the World Magnetic Model 2000. This model is designed for use in air and sea navigation systems and is valid till 2005.0. The derivation of World Magnetic Model 2000 has been the joint responsibility of the British Geological Survey (BGS) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The World Magnetic Model is the standard model in UK Ministry of Defence and US Department of Defense, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the World Hydrographic Office (WHO) navigation and attitude/heading referencing systems. It is also used widely in civilian navigation systems.

British Geological Survey Technical Report

Comparative study of aggregations under different dependency assumptions for assessment of undiscovered recoverable oil resources in the world

The U.S. Geological Survey assessed all significant sedimentary basins in the world for undiscovered conventionally recoverable crude-oil resources. Probabilistic methodology was applied to each basin assessment to produce estimates in the form of probability distributions. Basin probability distributions were computer aggregated to produce resource estimates for the entire world. Aggregation was approximated by a three-parameter lognormal distribution by combining the first three central moments of basin distributions. For purposes of experiment and study, world aggregation was conducted under four different sets of assumptions. The four cases are (1) dependent assessments of all basins, (2) dependent assessments within continental areas, but independent assessments among continental areas, (3) dependent assessments within countries, but independent assessments among countries, and (4) independent assessments of all basins. Mean estimate remained the same in all four cases, but the width of interval estimate formed using the 95th and 5th fractiles decreased with reduced dependency in going from first to fourth case. ?? 1985 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe

Zinc on the edge—Isotopic and geophysical evidence that cratonic edges control world-class shale-hosted zinc-lead deposits

The North Australian Zinc Belt is the largest zinc-lead province in the world, containing three of the ten largest known individual deposits (HYC, Hilton-George Fisher, and Mount Isa). The Northern Cordillera in North America is the second largest zinc-lead province, containing a further two of the world’s top ten deposits (Red Dog and Howards Pass). Despite this world-class endowment, exploration in both mineral provinces during the past 2 decades has not been particularly successful, yielding only two significant discoveries (Teena, Australia, and Boundary, Canada). One of the most important aspects of exploration is to choose mineral provinces and districts within geological belts that have the greatest potential for discovery. Here, we present results from these two zinc belts that highlight previously unused datasets for area selection and targeting. Lead isotope mapping using analyses of mineralized material has identified gradients in μ ( 238 U/ 204 Pb) that coincide closely with many major deposits. Locations of these deposits also coincide with a gradient in the depth of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary determined from calibrated surface wave tomography models converted to temperature. Furthermore, gradients in upward-continued gravity anomalies and a step in Moho depth correspond to a pre-existing major crustal boundary in both zinc belts. A spatial association of deposits with a linear mid- to lower-crustal resistivity anomaly from magnetotelluric data is also observed in the North Australian Zinc Belt. The change from thicker to thinner lithosphere is interpreted to localize prospective basins for zinc-lead mineralization and to control the gradient in lead isotope and geophysical data. These data, when combined with data indicative of paleoenvironment and changes in plate motion at the time of mineralization, provide new exploration criteria that can be used to identify prospective mineralized basins and define the most favorable parts of these basins.

Mineralium Deposita

Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Named landforms of the World: A geomorphological and physiographic compilation

Prior to the current era of digital geomorphological mapping, global and regional-scale land surface characterization was advanced by qualitative interpretations that relied on human visualization aided by disciplinary knowledge of geophysical processes combined with extensive field study. In the early twentieth century, Fenneman proposed to devise systematic physiographic divisions of the United States and in 1916 produced what is still regarded as an authoritative map of these divisions. His physiographic regions were developed to provide context when describing land surface characteristics of smaller areas using well-known regional characteristics and descriptors. In 1968, geographer Richard E. Murphy published a large-format map of the “Landforms of the World” to fill a gap in the suite of standard classroom maps. In 1990, the British geomorphologist E. M. Bridges published World Geomorphology , providing the first global treatment and description of divisions, provinces, and sections—the same hierarchical land partitioning concepts that Fenneman used decades earlier. In the twenty-first century, geographic information systems (GIS) technologies are nearly ubiquitous, yet neither Murphy’s nor Bridges’s work existed as GIS data. To further illuminate their pioneering work, we (1) recompiled Murphy’s landforms as a spatial combination of modern existing data layers, and (2) used the recompiled Murphy’s landforms as a basis for the boundaries of the divisions, provinces, and sections described by Bridges. Our aggregation yields a new resource, Named Landforms of the World, version 2.0, which provides a reference-level, basemap-quality data layer that can significantly facilitate mapping, assessing, and understanding Earth surface features.

Annals of the AAG

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

Global Change Biology

New faunal records from a World Heritage Site in danger: Rennell Island, Solomon Islands

Remote oceanic islands have high potential to harbor unique fauna and flora, but opportunities to conduct in-depth biotic surveys are often limited. Furthermore, underrepresentation of existing biodiversity in the literature has the potential to detract from conservation planning and action. Between 18 and 29 October 2018, we surveyed the terrestrial vertebrates of East Rennell, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Solomon Islands. We documented 56 species, including 15 squamates, 13 mammals, and 38 birds, and present four new vertebrate records for the island: Stephan's emerald dove ( Chalcophaps stephani ), Maluku myotis ( Myotis moluccarum ), littoral skink ( Emoia atrocostata ) and brahminy blindsnake ( Indotyphlops braminus ). East Rennell was designated a World Heritage site for its significant on-going ecological and biological processes, and importance for the study of island biogeography. The new records presented here provide evidence that continued field studies combined with DNA analysis will continue to uncover even greater endemic biodiversity. Rennell is currently experiencing major habitat destruction in parts of the island that are not under World Heritage protection, and we anticipate collateral damage will likely extend into protected areas. Our survey also underscores the incredible vertebrate biodiversity that stands to be lost unless conservation actions and local community needs are intertwined to promote beneficial outcomes on both fronts.

Pacific Science

Making a world of difference; recent USGS contributions to the Nation

Public service is about making a difference. As the Federal government's principal natural science and information agency, the USGS is committed to providing excellence in public service and to making a difference to the world we live in. Our motto conveys an enduring message: science for a changing world . The changing nature of the natural and physical world is the primary driving force and motivation behind all of the work USGS does in biology, geology, mapping, and water. We live our motto each day in fulfilling our mission to provide reliable, impartial information to the citizen of this country and to the global community.

General Information Product

Preliminary spreadsheet of eruption source parameters for volcanoes of the world

Volcanic eruptions that spew tephra into the atmosphere pose a hazard to jet aircraft. For this reason, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has designated nine Volcanic Ash and Aviation Centers (VAACs) around the world whose purpose is to track ash clouds from eruptions and notify aircraft so that they may avoid these ash clouds. During eruptions, VAACs and their collaborators run volcanic-ashtransport- and-dispersion (VATD) models that forecast the location and movement of ash clouds. These models require as input parameters the plume height H, the mass-eruption rate , duration D, erupted volume V (in cubic kilometers of bubble-free or 'dense rock equivalent' [DRE] magma), and the mass fraction of erupted tephra with a particle size smaller than 63 um (m63). Some parameters, such as mass-eruption rate and mass fraction of fine debris, are not obtainable by direct observation; others, such as plume height or duration, are obtainable from observations but may be unavailable in the early hours of an eruption when VATD models are being initiated. For this reason, ash-cloud modelers need to have at their disposal source parameters for a particular volcano that are based on its recent eruptive history and represent the most likely anticipated eruption. They also need source parameters that encompass the range of uncertainty in eruption size or characteristics. In spring of 2007, a workshop was held at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cascades Volcano Observatory to derive a protocol for assigning eruption source parameters to ash-cloud models during eruptions. The protocol derived from this effort was published by Mastin and others (in press), along with a world map displaying the assigned eruption type for each of the world's volcanoes. Their report, however, did not include the assigned eruption types in tabular form. Therefore, this Open-File Report presents that table in the form of an Excel spreadsheet. These assignments are preliminary and will be modified to follow upcoming recommendations by the volcanological and aviation communities.

Open-File Report

World petroleum assessment 2000; compiled PowerPoint slides

The slides in this compilation have been produced for a number of presentations on the World Petroleum Assessment 20000. Many of the figures are taken directly form the publication "U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000" - Description and Results: USGS Digital Data Series DDS-60, 2000. Some of the slides are modifications of figures from DDS-60, some are new descriptive slides, and a few are new slides. Several of the slides appear to be duplicates, but in fact are slight modifications for format or content from the same image. Forty-one people participated in this effort as part of the World Energy Assessment Team. The full list of contributors is given ion DDS-60.

Open-File Report

Critical analysis of world uranium resources

The U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA) joined with the U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to analyze the world uranium supply and demand balance. To evaluate short-term primary supply (0–15 years), the analysis focused on Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR), which are resources projected with a high degree of geologic assurance and considered to be economically feasible to mine. Such resources include uranium resources from mines currently in production as well as resources that are in the stages of feasibility or of being permitted. Sources of secondary supply for uranium, such as stockpiles and reprocessed fuel, were also examined. To evaluate long-term primary supply, estimates of uranium from unconventional and from undiscovered resources were analyzed. At 2010 rates of consumption, uranium resources identified in operating or developing mines would fuel the world nuclear fleet for about 30 years. However, projections currently predict an increase in uranium requirements tied to expansion of nuclear energy worldwide. Under a low-demand scenario, requirements through the period ending in 2035 are about 2.1 million tU. In the low demand case, uranium identified in existing and developing mines is adequate to supply requirements. However, whether or not these identified resources will be developed rapidly enough to provide an uninterrupted fuel supply to expanded nuclear facilities could not be determined. On the basis of a scenario of high demand through 2035, 2.6 million tU is required and identified resources in operating or developing mines is inadequate. Beyond 2035, when requirements could exceed resources in these developing properties, other sources will need to be developed from less well-assured resources, deposits not yet at the prefeasibility stage, resources that are currently subeconomic, secondary sources, undiscovered conventional resources, and unconventional uranium supplies. This report’s analysis of 141 mines that are operating or are being actively developed identifies 2.7 million tU of in-situ uranium resources worldwide, approximately 2.1 million tU recoverable after mining and milling losses were deducted. Sixty-four operating mines report a total of 1.4 million tU of in-situ RAR (about 1 million tU recoverable). Seventy-seven developing mines/production centers report 1.3 million tU in-situ Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) (about 1.1 million tU recoverable), which have a reasonable chance of producing uranium within 5 years. Most of the production is projected to come from conventional underground or open pit mines as opposed to in-situ leach mines. Production capacity in operating mines is about 76,000 tU/yr, and in developing mines is estimated at greater than 52,000 tU/yr. Production capacity in operating mines should be considered a maximum as mines seldom produce up to licensed capacity due to operational difficulties. In 2010, worldwide mines operated at 70 percent of licensed capacity, and production has never exceeded 89 percent of capacity. The capacity in developing mines is not always reported. In this study 35 percent of developing mines did not report a target licensed capacity, so estimates of future capacity may be too low. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimate an additional 1.4 million tU economically recoverable resources, beyond that identified in operating or developing mines identified in this report. As well, 0.5 million tU in subeconomic resources, and 2.3 million tU in the geologically less certain inferred category are identified worldwide. These agencies estimate 2.2 million tU in secondary sources such as government and commercial stockpiles and re-enriched uranium tails. They also estimate that unconventional uranium supplies (uraniferous phosphate and black shale deposits) may contain up to 7.6 million tU. Although unconventional resources are currently subeconomic, the improvement of extraction techniques or the production of coproducts may make extraction of uranium from these types of deposits profitable. A large undiscovered resource base is reported by these agencies, however this class of resource should be considered speculative and will require intensive exploration programs to adequately define them as mineable. These resources may all contribute to uranium supply that would fuel the world nuclear fleet well beyond that calculated in this report. Production of resources in both operating and developing uranium mines is subject to uncertainties caused by technical, legal, regulatory, and financial challenges that combined to create long timelines between deposit discovery and mine production. This analysis indicates that mine development is proceeding too slowly to fully meet requirements for an expanded nuclear power reactor fleet in the near future (to 2035), and unless adequate secondary or unconventional resources can be identified, imbalances in supply and demand may occur.

Scientific Investigations Report

Online catalog of world-wide test sites for the post-launch characterization and calibration of optical sensors

In an era when the number of Earth-observing satellites is rapidly growing and measurements from these sensors are used to answer increasingly urgent global issues, it is imperative that scientists and decision-makers rely on the accuracy of Earth-observing data products. The characterization and calibration of these sensors are vital to achieve an integrated Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) for coordinated and sustained observations of Earth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as a supporting member of Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and GEOSS, worked with partners around the world to establish an online catalogue of prime candidate world-wide test sites for the post-launch characterization and calibration of space-based optical imaging sensors. The online catalogue provides easy public web site access to this vital information for the global community. This paper further describes the catalogue, the test sites, and the methodologies to utilize the test sites. It also provides information regarding access to the online catalogue and plans for further development of the catalogue in cooperation with calibration specialists from agencies and organizations around the world. Through greater access to and understanding of these vital test sites and their use, the validity and utility of information gained from Earth remote sensing will continue to improve.

Conference Paper

Agriculture and food availability -- remote sensing of agriculture for food security monitoring in the developing world

For one-sixth of the world’s population - roughly 1 billion children, women and men - growing, buying or receiving adequate, affordable food to eat is a daily uncertainty. The World Monetary Fund reports that food prices worldwide increased 43 percent in 2007-2008, and unpredictable growing conditions make subsistence farming, on which many depend, a risky business. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are part of a network of both private and government institutions that monitor food security in many of the poorest nations in the world.

Earthzine