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Population ecology of breeding Pacific common eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska declined by 50–90% from 1957 to 1992 and then stabilized at reduced numbers from the early 1990s to the present. We investigated the underlying processes affecting their population dynamics by collection and analysis of demographic data from Pacific common eiders at 3 sites on the YKD (1991–2004) for 29 site-years. We examined variation in components of reproduction, tested hypotheses about the influence of specific ecological factors on life-history variables, and investigated their relative contributions to local population dynamics. Reproductive output was low and variable, both within and among individuals, whereas apparent survival of adult females was high and relatively invariant (0.89 ± 0.005). All reproductive parameters varied across study sites and years. Clutch initiation dates ranged from 4 May to 28 June, with peak (modal) initiation occurring on 26 May. Females at an island study site consistently initiated clutches 3–5 days earlier in each year than those on 2 mainland sites. Population variance in nest initiation date was negatively related to the peak, suggesting increased synchrony in years of delayed initiation. On average, total clutch size (laid) ranged from 4.8 to 6.6 eggs, and declined with date of nest initiation. After accounting for partial predation and non-viability of eggs, average clutch size at hatch ranged from 2.0 to 5.8 eggs. Within seasons, daily survival probability (DSP) of nests was lowest during egg-laying and late-initiation dates. Estimated nest survival varied considerably across sites and years (mean = 0.55, range: 0.06–0.92), but process variance in nest survival was relatively low (0.02, CI: 0.01–0.05), indicating that most variance was likely attributed to sampling error. We found evidence that observer effects may have reduced overall nest survival by 0.0–0.36 across site-years. Study sites with lower sample sizes and more frequent visitations appeared to experience greater observer effects. In general, Pacific common eiders exhibited high spatio-temporal variance in reproductive components. Larger clutch sizes and high nest survival at early initiation dates suggested directional selection favoring early nesting. However, stochastic environmental effects may have precluded response to this apparent selection pressure. Our results suggest that females breeding early in the season have the greatest reproductive value, as these birds lay the largest clutches and have the highest probability of successfully hatching. We developed stochastic, stage-based, matrix population models that incorporated observed spatio-temporal (process) variance and co-variation in vital rates, and projected the stable stage distribution () and population growth rate (λ). We used perturbation analyses to examine the relative influence of changes in vital rates on λ and variance decomposition to assess the proportion of variation in λ explained by process variation in each vital rate. In addition to matrix-based λ, we estimated λ using capture–recapture approaches, and log-linear regression. We found the stable age distribution for Pacific common eiders was weighted heavily towards experienced adult females (≥4 yr of age), and all calculations of λ indicated that the YKD population was stable to slightly increasing (λmatrix = 1.02, CI: 1.00–1.04); λreverse-capture–recapture = 1.05, CI: 0.99–1.11; λlog-linear = 1.04, CI: 0.98–1.10). Perturbation analyses suggested the population would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival (relative influence of adult survival was 1.5 times that of fecundity), whereas retrospective variation in λ was primarily explained by fecundity parameters (60%), particularly duckling survival (42%). Among components of fecundity, sensitivities were highest for duckling survival, suggesti

Alaska

Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Populations of greater scaup ( Aythya marila ) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup ( A. affinis ) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival. Greater scaup initiated egg laying later than other species, and most clutches (>80%) were initiated over 20 days each year. We located 1,056 nests; nest success ranged from 7 to 61 % among years. Following loss of their first clutch, 51 % of radio-tagged females attempted to renest. Duckling survival to 30 days of age was 37.5%. Our best model suggested that annual survival did not vary among years and averaged 81 %. Survival rate was positively related to structural body size. Only 8 of 214 banded individuals were reported as recovered (1 each in Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, and Alaska and 3 in California). Using a stochastic model, we estimated that, on average, breeding females produced 0.57 young females/nesting season. We combined this estimate of productivity with our annual estimates of adult survival and an assumed population growth rate of 1.0, then solved for an estimate of first-year survival (0.40). Under these conditions the predicted stable age distribution of breeding females (i.e., the nesting population) was 15.1% 1-year-old, 4.1% 2-year-old first-time breeders, and 80.8% 2-year-old and older, experienced breeders. We subjected this stochastic model to perturbation analyses to examine the relative effects of demographic parameters on k. The relative effects of productivity and adult survival on the population growth rate were 0.26 and 0.72, respectively. Thus, compared to productivity, proportionally equivalent changes in annual survival would have 2.8 times the effect on k. However, when we examined annual variation in predicted population size using standardized regression coefficients, productivity explained twice as much variation as annual survival. Thus, management actions focused on changes in survival or productivity have the ability to influence population size; however, substantially larger changes in productivity are required to influence population trends.

Wildlife Monographs

Pathogens, nutritional deficiency, and climate influences on a declining moose population

Several potential proximate causes may be implicated in a recent (post-1984) decline in moose ( Alces alces andersoni ) numbers at their southern range periphery in northwest Minnesota, USA. These causes include deleterious effects of infectious pathogens, some of which are associated with white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), negative effects of climate change, increased food competition with deer or moose, legal or illegal hunting, and increased predation by gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) and black bears ( Ursus americanus ). Long-standing factors that may have contributed to the moose decline include those typically associated with marginal habitat such as nutritional deficiencies. We examined survival and productivity among radiocollared ( n = 152) adult female and juvenile moose in northwest Minnesota during 1995–2000, and assessed cause of death and pathology through carcass necropsy of radiocollared and non-radiocollared animals. Aerial moose surveys suggested that hunting was an unlikely source of the numerical decline because the level of harvest was relatively low (i.e., approx. 15% / 2 yr) and the population usually grew in years following a hunt. The majority of moose mortalities (up to 87% of radiocollared moose [ n = 76] and up to 65% of non-radiocollared moose [ n = 84]) were proximally related to pathology associated with parasites and infectious disease. Liver fluke ( Fascioloides magna ) infections apparently constituted the greatest single source of mortality and caused significant pathology in the liver, thoracic and peritoneal cavities, pericardial sac, and lungs. Mortality due to meningeal worm ( Parelaphostrongylus tenuis ) was less prevalent and was manifested through characteristic neurological disease. Several mortalities apparently were associated with unidentified infectious disease, probably acting in close association with malnutrition. Bone-marrow fat was lower for moose dying of natural causes than those dying of anthropogenic factors or accidents, implying that acute malnutrition contributed to moose mortality. Blood profiles from live-captured animals indicated that those dying in the subsequent 18 months were chronically malnourished. Relative to other populations, average annual survival rates for adult females (0.79 [0.74–0.84; 95% CI]) and yearlings (0.64 [0.48–0.86]) were low, whereas those for calves (0.66 [0.53–081]) were high. Pregnancy (48%) and twinning (19%) rates were among the lowest reported for moose, with reproductive senescence among females being apparent as early as 8 years. Pregnancy status was related to indices of acute (i.e., bone-marrow fat) and chronic (i.e., blood condition indices) malnutrition. Opportunistic carcass recovery indicated that there likely were few prime-aged males (>5 yr old) in the population. Analysis of protein content in moose browse and fecal samples indicated that food quality was probably adequate to support moose over winter, but the higher fecal protein among animals that died in the subsequent 18 months could be indicative of protein catabolism associated with malnutrition. Trace element analysis from moose livers revealed apparent deficiencies in copper and selenium, but there was limited evidence of direct association between trace element concentrations and moose disease, pathology, or mortality. Time-series analysis of regional moose counts (1961–2000) indicated that annual population growth rate was related negatively to mean summer temperature, with winter and summer temperatures increasing by an average of 6.8 and 2.1 C, respectively, during the 40-year period. This change may have increased moose thermoregulatory costs and disrupted their energy balance, and thereby reduced their fitness. Time-series analysis failed to show a relationship between annual population growth rate and moose or deer abundance, indicating that food limitation via resource competition was unlikely. Population viability analyses, using count data (1961–2000) and demographic data collected during this study, suggested that the northwest Minnesota moose population likely would not persist over the next 50 years. More broadly, we conclude that the southern distribution of moose may become restricted in areas where climate and habitat conditions are marginal, especially where deer are abundant and act as reservoir hosts for parasites.

Minnesota

Elk calf survival and mortality following wolf restoration to Yellowstone National Park

We conducted a 3‐year study (May 2003–Apr 2006) of mortality of northern Yellowstone elk ( Cervus elaphus ) calves to determine the cause for the recruitment decline (i.e., 33 calves to 13 calves/100 adult F) following the restoration of wolves ( Canis lupus ). We captured, fit with radiotransmitters, and evaluated blood characteristics and disease antibody seroprevalence in 151 calves ≤6 days old (68M:83F). Concentrations (x̄, SE) of potential condition indicators were as follows: thyroxine (T4; 13.8 μg/dL, 0.43), serum urea nitrogen (SUN; 17.4 mg/dL, 0.57), γ‐glutamyltransferase (GGT; 66.4 IU/L, 4.36), gamma globulins (GG; 1.5 g/dL, 0.07), and insulin‐like growth factor‐1 (IGF‐1; 253.6 ng/mL, 9.59). Seroprevalences were as follows: brucellosis ( Brucella abortus ; 3%), bovine‐respiratory syncytial virus (3%), bovine‐viral‐diarrhea virus type 1 (25%), infectious‐bovine rhinotracheitis (58%), and bovine parainfluenza‐3 (32%). Serum urea nitrogen, GGT, GG, and IGF‐1 varied with year; T4, SUN, and GG varied with age ( P ≤ 0.01); and SUN varied by capture area ( P = 0.02). Annual survival was 0.22 (SE = 0.035, n = 149) and varied by calving area but not year. Neonates captured in the Stephens Creek/Mammoth area of Yellowstone National Park, USA, had annual survival rates >3× higher (0.54) than those captured in the Lamar Valley area (0.17), likely due to the higher predator density in Lamar Valley. Summer survival (20 weeks after radiotagging) was 0.29 (SE = 0.05, n = 116), and calving area, absolute deviation from median birth date, and GG were important predictors of summer survival. Survival during winter (Nov‐Apr) was 0.90 (SE= 0.05, n = 42), and it did not vary by calving area or year. Sixty‐nine percent ( n = 104) of calves died within the first year of life, 24% ( n = 36) survived their first year, and 7% ( n = 11) had unknown fates. Grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) and black bears ( Ursus americanus ) accounted for 58–60% ( n = 60–62) of deaths, and wolves accounted for 14–17% ( n = 15–18). Summer predation (95% of summer deaths) increased, and winter malnutrition (0% of winter deaths) decreased, compared with a similar study during 1987–1990 (72% and 58%, respectively). Physiological factors (e.g., low levels of GG) may predispose calves to predation. Also, the increase in bear numbers since wolf restoration and spatial components finer than the northern range should be considered when trying to determine the causes of the northern Yellowstone elk decline. This is the first study to document the predation impacts from reintroduced wolves on elk calf mortality in an ecosystem already containing established populations of 4 other major predators (i.e., grizzly and black bears, cougars [ Puma concolor ], and coyotes [ Canis latrans ]). The results are relevant to resource managers of the Yellowstone ecosystem in understanding the dynamics of the elk population, in providing harvest quota recommendations for local elk hunts to the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service regarding wolf and grizzly bear recovery, and to all areas worldwide where predators are increasing, by providing managers with information about potential carnivore impacts on elk populations.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Factors associated with duck nest success in the prairie pothole region of Canada

Populations of some dabbling ducks have declined sharply in recent decades and information is needed to understand reasons for this. During 1982-85, we studied duck nesting for 1-4 years in 17 1.6 by 16.0-km, high-density duck areas in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada, 9 in parkland and 8 in prairie. We estimated nest-initiation dates, habitat preferences, nest success, and nest fates for mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ), gadwalls ( A. strepera ), blue-winged teals ( A. discors ), northern shovelers ( A. clypeata ), and northern pintails ( A. acuta ). We also examined the relation of mallard production to geographic and temporal variation in wetlands, breeding populations, nesting effort, and hatch rate. Average periods of nest initiation were similar for mallards and northern pintails, and nearly twice as long as those of gadwalls, blue-winged teals, and northern shovelers. Median date of nest initiation was related to presence of wet wetlands (contained visible standing water), spring precipitation, and May temperature. Length of initiation period was related to presence of wet wetlands and precipitation in May, June temperature, and nest success; it was negatively related overall to drought that prevailed over much of Prairie Canada during the study, especially in 1984. Mallards, gadwalls, and northern pintails nested most often in brush in native grassland, blue-winged teals in road rights-of-way, and northern shovelers in hayfields and small (< 2 ha) untilled tracts of upland habitat (hereafter called Odd area). Among 8 habitat classes that composed all suitable nesting habitat of each study area, nest success estimates averaged 25% in Woodland, 19% in Brush, 18% in Hayland, 16% in Wetland, 15% in Grass, 11% in Odd area, 8% in Right-of-way, and 2% in Cropland. We detected no significant difference in nest success among species: mallard (11%), gadwall (14%), blue-winged teal (15%), northern shoveler (12%), and northern pintail (7%). Annual nest success (pooled by study area and averaged [unweighted] over all study areas) was 17% in 1982, 15% in 1983, 7% in 1984, and 14% in 1985. We estimated that predators destroyed 72% of mallard, gadwall, blue-winged teal, and northern shoveler nests and 65% of northern pintail nests. In prairie, average nest success decreased about 4 percentage points for every 10 percentage points increase in Cropland, suggesting that under conditions of 1982-85, local populations of these species probably were not stable when Cropland exceeded about 56% of available habitat. We found recent remains of 573 dead ducks during 1983-85; most were females (Anas spp.) apparently killed by predators. In some years, mallards and northern pintails were more numerous among dead ducks than we expected. More females than males were found dead among mallards and northern shovelers, suggesting higher vulnerability of females. Of factors we examined, nest-success rate appeared to be the most influential factor in determining mallard production. Nest success varied both geographically and annually.

Prairie pothole region

Red fox predation on breeding ducks in midcontinent North America

Red fox ( Vulpes vulpes ) predation on nesting ducks was assessed by examining 1,857 adult duck remains found at 1,432 fox rearing dens from 1968 to 1973. Dabbling ducks were much more vulnerable to foxes than diving ducks. Dabbling ducks (1,798) found at dens consisted of 27% blue-winged teals ( Anas discors ), 23% mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ), 20% northern pintails (A. acuta), 9% northern shovelers ( Spatula clypeata ), 8% gadwalls ( A. strepera ), 3% green-winged teals ( A. crecca ), 2% American wigeons ( A. americana ), and 10% unidentified. Relative abundance of individual species and nesting chronology were the most important factors affecting composition of ducks taken by foxes. Seventy-six percent of 1,376 adult dabbling ducks and 40% of 30 adult diving ducks for which sex was determined were hens. In western North Dakota and western South Dakota, 65% of mallard and northern pintail remains found at dens were hens compared with 76% in eastern North Dakota and eastern South Dakota ( P < 0.05). Percentage hens varied among the 5 most common dabbling ducks found at dens. In eastern North Dakota and eastern South Dakota, where predation on ducks was greatest, an average of 64% of gadwall, 73% of northern pintail, 81% of blue-winged teal, 81% of mallard, and 90% of northern shoveler remains found at dens were hens. Percentage hens among duck remains found at dens increased as the duck nesting season progressed. Numbers of adult ducks found at individual dens ranged from 0 to 67. The average number of ducks found in and around den entrances was used as an index of fox predation rates on ducks. Predation rate indices ranged from 0.01 duck/den in Iowa to 1.80 ducks/den in eastern North Dakota. Average annual predation rate indices for dabbling ducks in a 3-county intensive study area in eastern North Dakota were closely correlated with May pond numbers ( r = 0.874, P < 0.10) and duck population size ( r = 0.930, P < 0.05), but all species were not affected in the same manner or to the same degree. Drought had least effect on populations and predation rate indices of mallards and gadwalls and had greatest effect on those of northern pintails and northern shovelers. Hens of early nesting species were more vulnerable to foxes than hens of late nesting species. Predation rate indices were expanded to estimate total numbers of ducks taken by fox families during the denning season. Estimated numbers of dabbling ducks taken annually by individual fox families in 2 physiographic regions comprising the intensive study area ranged from 16.1 to 65.9. Predation was highest during wet years and lowest during dry years and averaged lower, but was more variable, in the region where tillage was greatest and wetland water levels were least stable. Predation in the intensive study area averaged 2.97 adult dabbling ducks/ km 2 /year and represented an estimated average annual loss of 13.5% of hen and 4.5% of drake populations in that area. Of 5,402 individual food items found at dens in the intensive study area, 24% were adult ducks. Ducks made up an estimated maximum average of 16% of the prey biomass required by fox families during the denning season. The average annual take of adult ducks by foxes in the midcontinent area was estimated to be about 900,000. This estimate included both scavenged and fox-killed ducks, as well as ducks taken after the denning season. Fox impact on midcontinent ducks was greatest in eastern North Dakota where both fox and duck densities were relatively high. Predation in that area was likely increased by environmental factors, especially intensive agriculture that concentrated nesting and reduced prey abundance. Predation by red foxes and other predators severely reduces duck production in the midcontinent area. Effective management to increase waterfowl production will necessitate coping with or reducing high levels of predation.

Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota,

Determinants of breeding distributions of ducks

The settling of breeding habitat by migratory waterfowl is a topic of both theoretical and practical interest. We use the results of surveys conducted annually during 1955-81 in major breeding areas to examine the factors that affect the distributions of 10 common North American duck species. Three patterns of settling are described: homing, opportunistic, and flexible. Homing is generally more pronounced among species that use more stable (more predictable) wetlands, such as the redhead (Aythya americana), canvasback (A. valisineria), lesser scaup (A. affinis), mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (Anas strepera), and northern shoveler (Anas clypeata). Opportunistic settling is more prevalent among species that use less stable (less predictable) wetlands, such as northern pintail (Anas acuta) and blue-winged teal (Anas discors). Flexible settling is exhibited to various degrees by most species.The 10 species are shown to fall along a natural ordination reflecting different life history characteristics. Average values of indices of r- and K-selection indicated that pintail, mallard, blue-winged teal, and shoveler have the most features associated with unstable or unpredictable environments. Gadwall, American wigeon (Anas americana), and green-winged teal (Anas crecca) were intermediate, and attributes of the diving ducks were associated with the use of stable or predictable environments.Some species--notably mallard, gadwall, blue-winged teal, redhead, and canvasback--tend to fill available breeding habitat first in the central portions of their range, and secondly in peripheral areas. Other species--American wigeon, green-winged teal, northern shoveler, northern pintail, and lesser scaup--fill their habitat in the order it is encountered during spring migration.Age and sex classes within species vary in their settling pattern. Some of this variation can be predicted from the mating systems of ducks in which breeding females, especially successful ones, have a greater investment in habitat resources and are more likely to return to the same area in subsequent years.

Wildlife Monographs

Homing and reproductive habits of mallards, gadwalls, and blue-winged teal

We studied mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), gadwall ( A. strepera ), and blue-winged teal ( A. discors ) populations on 2 study areas of 22.6-km 2 each in central North Dakota during 1976-81. Data regarding rates of return of females to natal or previously used nesting areas, nest site selection, and productivity of hens of different ages were collected from 1,166 nasal-marked and 2,142 banded hens of the 3 species and from 740 web-tagged mallard and gadwall young. In spring, yearling mallard and gadwall hens arrived at the breeding site later than older hens. Yearling gadwall hens initiated nesting about 1 week later than 2-year-old hens, and 2-year-old hens began nesting about 1 week later than hens older than 2 years. Gadwall hens older than 2 years also had a longer nesting season. Mallard and gadwall nest densities were highest in those cover types with the highest visual obstruction ratings. Cover preference in descending order of use was seeded nesting cover, odd areas, roadside, dry wetland, and canal-side. Blue-winged teal nest densities were highest in dry wetland and roadside. Nesting success was different among years, but not among cover types. There was no population increase at any cover type due to homing hens. Overall nesting success was 11, 10, and 23% for mallards, gadwalls, and blue-winged teal, respectively. Recruitment of fledged young was similar for yearling and adult mallard females. Production from yearling gadwall hens was a meager 0.2 young fledged/female. Clutch size was not different between yearling and adult mallard and blue-winged teal hens, but clutch size for all 3 species declined as the nesting season advanced. More ≥1-year-mallard hens and ≥2-year-old gadwall hens that nested successfully 1 year returned to the study areas the following year than did unsuccessful hens. Gadwall hen return rates also increased with age. Blue-winged teal hen return rates averaged 4% and were not related to hen success or hen age. Mallard and gadwall hens that nested successfully 1 year used the same cover type the next year. Successful returning mallard hens also nested closer to the previous nest site than unsuccessful hens. Twenty-nine percent of hatching year (HY) mallard females returned to the study area, and all of these returned as yearlings (second summer). Nine percent of HY gadwalls returned, approximately half as yearlings and the remainder as 2 year olds. Duckling survival from hatching until near fledging was 0.681 for mallards and 0.828 for gadwalls. An overall direct band recovery rate of 8% for HY mallard hens was not different than that of older hens. Gadwall direct band recovery rates decreased through the HY (11%), yearling (5%), and >2-year (1%) age classes.

North Dakota

Forage site selection by lesser snow geese during autumn staging on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska

Lesser snow geese ( Chen caerulescens caerulescens ) of the Western Canadian Arctic Population feed intensively for 2-4 weeks on the coastal plain of the Beaufort Sea in Canada and Alaska at the beginning of their autumn migration. Petroleum leasing proposed for the Alaskan portion of the staging area on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) could affect staging habitats and their use by geese. Therefore we studied availability, distribution, and use by snow geese of tall and russett cotton-grass ( Eriophorum angustifolium and E. russeolum , respectively) feeding habitats on the ANWR. We studied selection of feeding habitats at 3 spatial scales (feeding sites [0.06 m 2 ], feeding patches [ca. 100 m 2 ], and feeding areas [>1 ha]) during 1990-93. We used logistic regression analysis to discriminate differences in soil moisture and vegetation between 1,548 feeding sites where snow geese exploited individual cotton-grass plants and 1,143 unexploited sites at 61 feeding patches in 1990. Feeding likelihood increased with greater soil moisture and decreased where nonforage species were present. We tested the logistic regression model in 1991 by releasing human-imprinted snow geese into 4 10 × 20-m enclosed plots where plant communities had been mapped, habitats sampled, and feeding probabilities calculated. Geese selected more feeding sites per square meter in areas of predicted high quality feeding habitat (feeding probability ≥ 0.6) than in medium (feeding probability = 0.3-0.59) or poor (feeding probability < 0.3) quality habitat (P < 0.0001). Geese increasingly used medium quality areas and spent more time feeding as trials progressed and forage was presumably reduced in high quality habitats. We examined relationships between underground biomass of plants, feeding probability, and surface microrelief at 474 0.06- m 2 sites in 20 thermokarst pits in 1992. Feeding probability was correlated with the percentage of underground biomass composed of cotton-grass (r = 0.56). Feeding probability and relative availability of cotton-grass forage were highest in flooded soils along the ecotone of flooded and upland habitats. In 1992, we also used the logistic regression model to estimate availability of high quality feeding sites on 192 80 × 90-m plots that were randomly located on 24 study areas. A mean of 1.6% of the area sampled in each plot was classified as high quality feeding habitat at 23 of the study areas. Relative availability of high quality sites was highest in troughs, thermokarst pits, and water tracks because saturated soils in those microreliefs were dominated by cotton-grass. Relative availability of high quality sites was lower in saturated soils of basins (low-centered polygons, wet meadows, and strangmoor) because that microrelief was dominated by Carex spp. Most (63%) of the saturated area on the ANWR coastal plain was in basins. We examined distribution of feeding patches relative to microrelief in 49 snow goose feeding areas in 1993. Only 2.5% of the tundra in each feeding area was exploited by snow geese. Snow geese preferentially fed in thermokarst pits, water tracks, and troughs, and avoided basins and uplands. Feeding areas had more thermokarst pit but less basin microrelief than adjacent randomly-selected areas. Thermokarst pits and water tracks occurred most frequently in regions of the coastal plain where geese were observed most often during aerial surveys (1982-93). Microrelief influenced selection of feeding patches and feeding areas and may have affected snow goose distribution on the ANWR. Potential feeding patches were widely distributed but composed a small percentage (≤2.5%) of the tundra landscape and were highly interspersed with less suitable habitat. The Western Canadian Arctic Population probably used a large staging area on the Beaufort Sea coastal plain because snow geese exploited a spatially and temporally heterogeneous resource.

Alaska

Natal and breeding dispersal of northern spotted owls

We studied the dispersal behavior of 1,475 northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) during banding and radio-telemetry studies in Oregon and Washington in 1985-1996. The sample included 324 radio-marked juveniles and 1,151 banded individuals (711 juveniles, 440 non-juveniles) that were recaptured or resighted after dispersing from the initial banding location. Juveniles typically left the nest during the last week in May and the first two weeks in June (x?? ?? SE = 8 June ?? 0.53 days, n = 320, range = 15 May-1 July), and spent an average of 103.7 days in the natal territory after leaving the nest (SE = 0.986 days, n = 137, range = 76-147 days). The estimated mean date that juveniles began to disperse was 19 September in Oregon (95% CI = 17-21 September) and 30 September in Washington (95% CI = 25 September-4 October). Mean dispersal dates did not differ between males and females or among years. Siblings dispersed independently. Dispersal was typically initiated with a series of rapid movements away from the natal site during the first few days or weeks of dispersal. Thereafter, most juveniles settled into temporary home ranges in late October or November and remained there for several months. In February-April there was a second pulse of dispersal activity, with many owls moving considerable distances before settling again in their second summer. Subsequent dispersal patterns were highly variable, with some individuals settling permanently in their second summer and others occupying a series of temporary home ranges before eventually settling on territories when they were 2-5 years old. Final dispersal distances ranged from 0.6-111.2 km for banded juveniles and 1.8-103.5 km for radio-marked juveniles. The distribution of dispersal distances was strongly skewed towards shorter distances, with only 8.7% of individuals dispersing more than 50 km. Median natal dispersal distances were 14.6 km for banded males, 13.5 km for radio-marked males, 24.5 km for banded females, and 22.9 km for radio-marked females. On average, banded males and females settled within 4.2 and 7.0 territory widths of their natal sites, respectively. Maximum and final dispersal distances were largely independent of the number of days that juveniles were tracked. Although statistical tests of dispersal direction based on all owls indicated that direction of natal dispersal was non-random, the mean angular deviations and 95% CI's associated with the samples were large, and r-values (vector length) were small. This lead us to conclude that significant test results were the result of large sample size and were not biologically meaningful. Our samples were not large enough to test whether dispersal direction from individual territories was random. In the sample of radio-marked owls, 22% of males and 44% of females were paired at 1 year of age, but only 1.5% of males and 1.6% of females were actually breeding at 1 year of age. At 2 years of age, 68% of males and 77% of females were paired, but only 5.4% of males and 2.6% of females were breeding. In contrast to the radio-marked owls, most juveniles that were banded and relocated at 1 or 2 years of age were paired, although few were breeding. Although recruitment into the territorial population typically occurred when owls were 1-5 years old, 9% of banded juveniles were not recaptured until they were > 5 years old. We suspect that our estimates of age at recruitment of banded owls are biased high because of the likelihood that some individuals were not recaptured in the first year that they entered the territorial population. A minimum of 6% of the banded, non-juvenile owls on our demographic study areas changed territories each year (breeding dispersal). The likelihood of breeding dispersal was higher for females, young owls, owls that did not have a mate in the previous year, and owls that lost their mate from the previous year through death or divorce. Mean and median distances dispersed by adults were

Wildlife Monographs

Seasonal movements, migratory behavior, and site fidelity of West Indian manatees along the Atlantic coast of the United States

The West Indian manatee ( Trichechus manatus ) is endangered by human activities throughout its range, including the U.S. Atlantic coast where habitat degradation from coastal development and manatee deaths from watercraft collisions have been particularly severe. We radio-tagged and tracked 78 manatees along the east coast of Florida and Georgia over a 12-year period (1986-1998). Our goals were to characterize the seasonal movements, migratory behavior, and site fidelity of manatees in this region in order to provide information for the development of effective conservation strategies. Most study animals were tracked remotely with the Argos satellite system, which yielded a mean (SD) of 3.7 (1.6) locations per day; all were regularly tracked in the field using conventional radiotelemetry methods. The combined data collection effort yielded >93,000 locations over nearly 32,000 tag-days. The median duration of tracking was 8.3 months per individual, but numerous manatees were tracked over multiple years (max = 6.8 years). Most manatees migrated seasonally over large distances between a northerly warm-season range and a southerly winter range (median one-way distance = 280 km, max = 830 km), but 12% of individuals were resident in a relatively small area (<50 km) year-round. The movements of one adult male spanned >2,300 km of coastline between southeastern Florida and Rhode Island. No study animals journeyed to the Gulf coast of Florida. Regions heavily utilized by tagged manatees included: Fernandina Beach, FL to Brunswick, GA in the warm season; northern Biscayne Bay to Port Everglades, FL in the winter; and central coastal Florida, especially the Banana River and northern Indian River lagoons, in all seasons. Daily travel rate, defined as the distance between successive mean daily locations, averaged 2.5 km (SD = 1.7), but this varied with season, migratory pattern, and sex. Adult males traveled a significantly greater distance per day than did adult females for most of the warm season, which corresponded closely with the principal period of breeding activity, but there was no difference between the sexes in daily travel rate during the winter. The timing of seasonal migrations differed markedly between geographic regions. Most long-distance movements in the southern half of the study area occurred between November and March in response to changing temperatures, whereas most migrations in the northern region took place during the warmer, non-winter months. Manatees left their warm-season range in central Florida in response to cold fronts that dropped water temperatures by an average of 2.0??C over the 24-hr period preceding departure. Water temperature at departure from the warm-season range averaged 19??C, but varied among individuals (16-22??C) and was not related to body size or female reproductive status. The presence of industrial warm-water effluents permitted many manatees to overwinter north of their historic winter range, and for some migrants this delayed autumn migrations and facilitated earlier spring migrations. Southward autumn and northward spring migrations lasted an average of 10 and 15 days at mean rates of 33.5 (SD = 7.6) and 27.3 (SD = 10.5) km/day, respectively. The highest rate of travel during migration was 87 km/day (3.6 km/hr) during winter. Manatees overwintering in southeastern Florida often traveled north during mild weather - sometimes reaching their warm-season range - only to return south again with the next major cold front. Manatees were consistent in their seasonal movement patterns across years and showed strong fidelity, to warm-season and winter ranges. Within a season, individuals usually occupied only 1 or 2 core use areas that encompassed about 90% of daily locations. Most manatees returned faithfully to the same seasonal ranges year after year (median distance between range centers was <5 km between years). Seasonal movements of 4 immature manatees tracked as calves with their mothers

Florida, Georgia

Ecology of Florida black bears in the Okefenokee-Osceola ecosystem

The population status of the Florida black bear ( Ursus americanus floridanus ) is problematic within many portions of its range and its potential listing as a federally threatened species has been the subject of legal debate. We studied Florida black bears in 2 areas in the Okefenokee-Osceola ecosystem in southeast Georgia (i.e.,Okefenokee) and north Florida (i.e., Osceola) from 1995 to 1999 to evaluate relationships between population characteristics, habitat conditions, and human activities. Bears in Okefenokee were hunted and those in Osceola were not. We captured 205 different black bears (124M:81F) 345 times from June 1995 to September 1998. We obtained 13,573 radiolocations from 87 (16M:71F) individual bears during the study. In Okefenokee, black gum ( Nyssa sylvatica ) and saw palmetto ( Serenoa repens ) fruits were the most important foods for bears based on scat analysis. In Osceola, corn from white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) feeders was the most stable food source but saw palmetto was heavily used when available. Corn from deer feeders was not available in Okefenokee. Adult bears in Osceola were 29% heavier than those in Okefenokee ( t 82 = 3.55, P <0.001). The mean annual home-range size for Osceola females ( x̄ =30.3 km 2 &plusmn; 4.0 [SE], n =53) varied little seasonally or annually and was almost half that of Okefenokee females (55.9 km 2 &plusmn; 6.9, n = 69; Z = &ndash;2.47, P = 0.014). In contrast, radiocollared females in Okefenokee expanded their home ranges during years of poor black gum production. That expansion was most apparent between autumn 1998 and 1999, when mean home-range size for Okefenokee females increased from 14.5 km 2 to 78.4 km 2 , respectively, and included a larger proportion of upland areas open to sport hunting. As a result, 5 females were harvested in the Okefenokee study area during the 1999 bear hunting season compared with only 7 harvested from 1996 to 1998. Home ranges of adult female bears were located in areas with disproportionately high loblolly bay ( Gordonia lasianthus ) and gum-bay-cypress ( Taxodium spp.) vegetation associations in Okefenokee and gum-bay-cypress associations in Osceola. The pine vegetation association ranked lower than most other associations within the home ranges of bears in both study areas even though much of the summer and autumn diets of bears included food items found almost exclusively in pine. Sixteen mortalities of radiocollared bears were documented in Okefenokee; hunting accounted for 11 (68.8%) of these deaths. The annual survival rate of radiocollared males in Okefenokee was 0.71 (95% CI = 0.53&ndash;0.88) whereas survival of females in Okefenokee was higher ( Z =18.87, P <0.001) at 0.89 (95% CI = 0.83&ndash;0.95). The survival rate for females in Osceola was 0.97 (95% CI = 0.92&ndash;1.00). Overall, 67 bears (51M:16F) were killed by hunters in the Okefenokee study area from 1995 to 1999. Based on all radiocollared bears in Okefenokee, many of which resided within areas closed to hunting, we estimated an annual harvest rate of 0.22 (95% CI = 0.03&ndash;0.37) for males and 0.07 (95% CI = 0.01&ndash;0.12) for females. When we excluded those bears that were not in areas open to hunting, however, the annual harvest rate rose to 0.37 (95% CI = 0.07&ndash;0.58) for males and 0.39 (95% CI = 0.09&ndash;0.58) for females. Following a black gum shortage in autumn 1995, only 1 of 15 radiocollared females in Okefenokee produced cubs in winter 1996. That low reproductive rate was in contrast to winter 1997, which followed heavy black gum production, when 21 of 22 radiocollared females produced cubs. Reproductive output was more consistent in the Osceola study area, with 46 cubs being produced from 8, 5, and 9 litters in 1997, 1998, and 1999, respectively. To estimate population size, we maintained 88 and 94 barbed-wire hair traps during 1999 in the Okefenokee and Osceola study areas, respectively. Using DNA collected at the hair traps, mark&ndash;recapture models produced estimates of 71 bears (95% CI = 59&ndash;91) in Okefenokee and 44 bears (95% CI = 40&ndash;57) in the Osceola study area during 1999. The estimated densities in the Okefenokee and Osceola study areas were 0.12 and 0.14 bears/km 2 , respectively. Alternative density estimates based on the amount of time bears spent within study area boundaries were similar (0.11 and 0.14 bears/km 2 on Okefenokee and Osceola, respectively). We used a population model to estimate the effect of harvest in the Okefenokee bear population. Excluding harvest, bears at Osceola experienced higher average annual population growth (&lambda; = 1.184 &plusmn; 0.002) than those at Okefenokee (1.064 &plusmn; 0.002; t 18 = 3.93, P = 0.001), most likely due to protection from hunting and higher recruitment. Including the effects of emigration and immigration, we estimated an average annual sustainable harvest at Okefenokee of approximately 9 bears (12.6%), which was slightly less than the average 1995&ndash;1999 annual harvest of 9.4. That level of hunting in Okefenokee is sustainable but likely represents the highest exploitation rate in the region. Our mark&ndash;recapture data from Osceola suggest a high dispersal rate by subadult bears, and our population modeling data support this hypothesis; we documented bears in Okefenokee that originated from Osceola but not the reverse. We speculate that bears from the interior of the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (ONWR), and to some extent northern Florida, served as a source to the population sink caused by hunting mortality in Okefenokee and in the surrounding Georgia counties. Corn from deer feeders was the most probable reason for smaller home-range sizes and greater body masses and reproductive output at Osceola. Changes in management to eliminate or reduce baiting for deer with corn would negatively affect the Osceola bear population. On Okefenokee, sporadic black gum and palmetto production influenced harvest rates and cub production and, thus, governed bear population dynamics. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) concluded in 1998 that listing the Florida black bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 was not warranted. That decision was largely based on the stability and protection afforded to a few subpopulations within the range of the subspecies, which includes the Okefenokee-Osceola subpopulation; our results support that conclusion. However, we suggest that metapopulation processes among the various subpopulations be given greater consideration, with the ultimate goal of managing the sub-species as a unit rather than as an assemblage of independent components. Our study illustrates the importance of travel corridors for maintaining metapopulation processes.

Florida, Georgia

Capture-recapture and removal methods for sampling closed populations

The problem of estimating animal abundance is common in wildlife management and environmental impact asessment. Capture-recapture and removal methods are often used to estimate population size. Statistical Inference From Capture Data On Closed Animal Populations, a monograph by Otis et al. (1978), provides a comprehensive synthesis of much of the wildlife and statistical literature on the methods, as well as some extensions of the general theory. In our primer, we focus on capture-recapture and removal methods for trapping studies in which a population is assumed to be closed and do not treat open-population models, such as the Jolly-Seber model, or catch-effort methods in any detail. The primer, written for students interested in population estimation, is intended for use with the more theoretical monograph.

Report

A gap analysis and comprehensive conservation strategy for riverine ecosystems of Missouri

North America harbors an astounding proportion of the world's freshwater species, but it is facing a freshwater biodiversity crisis. A first step to slowing the loss of biodiversity involves identifying gaps in existing efforts to conserve biodiversity and prioritizing opportunities to fill these gaps. In this monograph we detail two separate, but complementary, conservation planning efforts - a Gap Analysis (GAP) and a State Wildlife Action Plan (WAP) - for Missouri that address this first step. The goal of the Missouri Aquatic GAP Project was to identify riverine ecosystems, habitats, and species not adequately represented (i.e., gaps) within existing conservation lands. The goal of the freshwater component of the Missouri Wildlife Action Plan was to identify and map a set of conservation-opportunity areas (COAs) that holistically represent all riverine ecosystems, habitats, and species in Missouri. Since conservation planning is a geographical exercise, both efforts utilized geographic information systems (GIS). Four principal GIS data sets were used in each planning effort: (1) a hierarchical riverine ecosystem classification, (2) predicted species distributions, (3) public ownership/stewardship, and (4) a human-threat index. Results of the gap analyses are not encouraging. Forty five, mostly rare, threatened, or endangered, species are not represented in lands set aside for conserving biodiversity. Results also illustrate the fragmented nature of conservation lands, which are mainly situated in the uplands and fail to provide connectivity among riverine habitats. Furthermore, many conservation lands are severely threatened by an array of human disturbances. In contrast, results of the WAP provide hope that relatively intact riverine ecosystems still exist. A total of 158 COAs, representing &sim;6% of the total kilometers of stream in Missouri, were selected for the WAP. This illustrates that a wide spectrum of biodiversity can be represented within a small portion of the total resource base, but the area of conservation concern is often much larger. Identifying priority riverscapes for conservation is an important first step toward effective biodiversity conservation. Yet, achieving the ultimate goal of conserving biodiversity will require vigilance on the part of all responsible parties, with particular attention to addressing and coordinating the many remaining logistical tasks.

Missouri

Opportunities to protect instream flows and wetland uses of water in Florida

This document combines the efforts of several individuals, agencies, and organizations toward a common objective: the identification, description, and preliminary evaluation of promising opportunities for protecting instream uses of water under existing laws in Florida. this report is intended for the use of State and Federal planning and management personnel who need an overview of potential opportunities for preserving instream flows. It is not intended to replace or challenge the advice of agency counsel, nor is it written to provide legal advice. Instead, it is designed as a guide for the person trying to find his way among sometimes bewildering State statutes and administrative practices. This report is not, and should not be taken as, official policy or prediction of future actions by any agency. It is simply a summary of some potential opportunities for protecting instream uses. Toward these objectives, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, through its Water Resource Analysis Project, contracted in 1977 with R. Dewsnup and D. Jensen to identify available strategies under State and Federal laws, interstate compacts, and water quality laws. A second firm, Enviro Control, Inc., was contracted to evaluate the most promising strategies. The resulting documents reported instream flow strategies for 11 States. These reports have been revised, updated, and combined in a number of new monographs, and the Service has added more States to this service over the years. The discussion of instream flow programs and opportunities for each State is written so that each report can be read independently, with minimal cross-referencing from one State report to another. The opportunities for Florida are summarized in the table.

Report

Sea otter population collapse in southwest Alaska: Assessing ecological covariates, consequences, and causal factors

Sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations in southwest Alaska declined substantially between about 1990 and the most recent set of surveys in 2015. Here we report changes in the distribution and abundance of sea otters, and covarying patterns in reproduction, mortality, body size and condition, diet and foraging behavior, food availability, health profiles, and exposure to environmental contaminants over this 25-yr period. The population decline, which resulted in densities on the order of 5% of environmental carrying capacity, ranged from Attu Island in the west to about Castle Cape (on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula) in the east. Remaining sea otters moved closer to shore and into shallow, protected habitats. Reproductive rates appeared unchanged with the decline. Although the demographic cause of the decline was clearly elevated mortality, stranded carcasses were rare or absent. The net rate of energy gain by foraging sea otters, body length and condition, and prey biomass density, all increased after the decline and varied inversely with sea otter population density beyond the area of decline. Sea otters within the area of decline showed no increases in health anomalies, disease, contaminant exposure, or abnormal gene transcription patterns as compared to animals outside the area of decline. These collective findings are inconsistent with nutritional limitation, disease, or environmental contaminants, and consistent with predation (or possibly some other density-independent factor) as the reason for the sea otter population decline. Our approach and analyses provide a broad conceptual template for thinking about and assessing the causes of wildlife population declines.

Alaska

Using mobile acoustic monitoring and false-positive N-mixture models to estimate bat abundance and population trends

Estimating the abundance of unmarked animal populations from acoustic data is challenging due to the inability to identify individuals and the need to adjust for observation biases including detectability (false negatives), species misclassification (false positives), and sampling exposure. Acoustic surveys conducted along mobile transects were designed to avoid counting individuals more than once, where raw counts are commonly treated as an index of abundance. More recently, false-positive abundance models have been developed to estimate abundance while accounting for imperfect detection and misclassification. We adapted these methods to model summertime abundance and trends of three species of bats at multiple spatial scales using acoustic recordings collected along mobile transects by partners of the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) from 2012 to 2020. This multiscale modeling spanned individual transect routes, larger NABat grid cells (10 km × 10 km), and across the entire extent of modeled species ranges. We estimated relationships between species abundances and a suite of abiotic and biotic predictors (landcover types, climatological variables, physiographic diversity, building density, and the impacts of white-nose syndrome [WNS]) and found varying levels of support between species. We present clear evidence of substantial declines in populations of tricolored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ) and little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus ), declines that corresponded in space and time with the progression of WNS, a devastating disease of hibernating bats. In contrast, our analysis revealed that similar population-wide declines probably have not occurred in big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ), a species known to be less affected by WNS. This study provides the first abundance-based species distribution predictions and population trends for bats in their summer ranges in North America. These models will probably be applicable to assessing wildlife populations in other monitoring programs where acoustic data are used or where false-negative and false-positive detections are present. Finally, our abundance framework (as a spatial point pattern process) can serve as a foundation from which more sophisticated integrated species distribution models that incorporate additional streams of monitoring data (e.g., stationary acoustics, captures) can be developed for North American bats.

Ecological Monographs