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Fort Collins Science Center: Policy Analysis and Science Assistance

Most resource management decisions involve the integrated use of biological, sociological, and economic information. Combining this information provides a more comprehensive basis for making effective land management and conservation decisions. Toward this end, scientists in the Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch (PASA) of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) contribute expert knowledge for natural resources management by conducting biological, social, economic, and institutional analyses of conservation policies and management practices. PASA's mission is to integrate biological, social, and economic research so that resource managers can use the resulting information to make informed decisions and resolve resource management conflicts. PASA scientists pursue and conduct scientific analyses that help agencies and Native American tribes to (1) identify impending policy controversies and areas where social and natural science research is needed to address future policy questions; (2) develop methods and approaches to assist researchers in preparing scientific evidence; (3) assess habitat alteration in a manner consistent with policy needs; and (4) evaluate policy options. Branch scientists also evaluate policy options (e.g., effects of different land treatments, fish and wildlife management practices, or visitor/recreation management practices) in response to specific questions faced by policymakers and managers.

Fact Sheet↗

Prairie basin wetlands of the Dakotas: a community profile

This description of prairie basin wetlands of the Dakotas is part of a series of community profiles on ecologically important wetlands of national significance. The shallow wetlands of the Dakotas form the bulk of the portion of the Prairie Pothole Region lying within the United States. This region is famous as the producer of at least half of North America's waterfowl and an unknown, but large, proportion of other prairie-dwelling marsh and aquatic birds.The wetlands described here lie in relatively small, shallow basins that vary greatly in their ability to maintain surface water, and in their water chemistry, which varies from fresh to hypersaline. These wetlands occur in a wide variety of hydrological settings, in an area where annual and seasonal precipitation varies greatly in form and amount. Thus the presence of surface water in these wetlands is largely unpredictable. Superimposed on these phenomena are the effects of a variety of land uses, including pasture, cultivation, mechanical forage removal, idle conditions and burning. All those factors greatly affect the plant and animal communities found in these basins.This profile covers lacustrine and palustrine basins with temporarily flooded, seasonally flooded, and semipermanently flooded water regimes. Basins with these water regimes compose about 90% of the basins in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Dakotas. This profile outlines the wetland subsystems, classes and subclasses that occur in these basins, and provides a useful reference to their geologic, climatic, hydrologic, and pedologic setting.Detailed information on the biotic environment of the wetlands dealt with in this profile will be useful to scientists and resource managers. Special recognition is paid to the macrophyte and invertebrate communities, which have dynamic qualities found in few other of the world's wetland ecosystems.The most noteworthy animal inhabitants of these basins are waterfowl, which are a resource of international concern. Because of the importance of this resource, much research on the habitat use and feeding ecology of breeding waterfowl has been conducted in the region. These topics receive special attention in this profile.The Prairie Pothole Region is a major world supplier of cereal grains. Consequently, wetlands in the region are often drained for crop production or otherwise cropped when water conditions permit. These practices degrade the value of wetlands for most species of wildlife and conflict with the aims of conservationists. The subject of human uses and impacts to prairie wetlands is thus an important part of this profile.

Biological Report↗

Application of close-kin mark–recapture to an American black bear population using harvest samples

Close-kin mark–recapture (CKMR) offers a promising alternative to traditional mark–recapture methods for estimating wildlife population parameters. CKMR estimates demographic parameters by identifying genetic relationships between individuals, effectively “recapturing” parental genotypes through their offspring's genetic profiles. One key advantage of CKMR over traditional methods is the ability to estimate abundance without recapture, facilitating the use of lethally collected biological samples. Here, we present an application of CKMR to a terrestrial species using samples collected from harvested individuals. We analyzed genetic data from 1767 American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) harvested over two consecutive years in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Using Genotyping-in-Thousands by sequencing (GT-seq), we identified parent-offspring pairs and developed sex-specific models tailored to black bear reproductive biology and management strategies. Female population estimates aligned with our expectations, based on prior knowledge of the population. In contrast, male population estimates deviated from expectations, potentially due to an unmodeled combination of factors pertaining to male reproductive biology and sampling bias. Our study not only demonstrates the viability of using harvest-based CKMR for monitoring of terrestrial wildlife populations, but also highlights the need for careful model specification. By providing a novel method to estimate demographic parameters and population size, CKMR using harvest samples can inform management decisions and harvest quotas. This approach leverages existing management practices involving collection of genetic samples, such as mandatory harvest registrations and health monitoring programs. Our findings contribute to the growing body of CKMR applications and expand its use to terrestrial species management.

Michigan↗

The insignificance of statistical significance testing

Despite their use in scientific journals such as The Journal of Wildlife Management , statistical hypothesis tests add very little value to the products of research. Indeed, they frequently confuse the interpretation of data. This paper describes how statistical hypothesis tests are often viewed, and then contrasts that interpretation with the correct one. I discuss the arbitrariness of P-values, conclusions that the null hypothesis is true, power analysis, and distinctions between statistical and biological significance. Statistical hypothesis testing, in which the null hypothesis about the properties of a population is almost always known a priori to be false, is contrasted with scientific hypothesis testing, which examines a credible null hypothesis about phenomena in nature. More meaningful alternatives are briefly outlined, including estimation and confidence intervals for determining the importance of factors, decision theory for guiding actions in the face of uncertainty, and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and other statistical practices.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Limits of retrospective power analysis

Power analysis after study completion has been suggested to interpret study results. We present 3 methods of estimating power and discuss their limitations. We use simulation studies to show that estimated power can be biased, extremely variable, and severely bounded. We endorse the practice of computing power to detect a biologically meaningful difference as a tool for study planning but suggest that calculation of confidence intervals on the parameter of interest is the appropriate way to gauge the strength and biological meaning of study results.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

The expectations and challenges of wildlife disease research in the era of genomics: Forecasting with a horizon scan-like exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented ‘Big Data’ tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural ‘Genomics of Disease in Wildlife’ workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed five themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: i) “Improving Communication”, ii) “Methodological and Analytical Advancements”, iii) “Translation into Practice”, iv) “Integrating Landscape Ecology and Genomics”, and v) “Emerging New Questions”. Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Journal of Heredity↗

Limitations, lack of standardization, and recommended best practices in studies of renewable energy effects on birds and bats

Increasing global energy demand is fostering the development of renewable energy as an alternative to fossil fuels. However, renewable energy facilities may adversely affect wildlife. Facility siting guidelines recommend or require project developers complete pre‐ and postconstruction wildlife surveys to predict risk and estimate effects of proposed projects. Despite this, there are no published studies that have quantified the types of surveys used or how survey types are standardized within and across facilities. We evaluated 628 peer‐reviewed publications, unpublished reports, and citations, and we analyzed data from 525 of these sources (203 facilities: 193 wind and 10 solar) in the United States and Canada to determine the frequency of pre‐ and postconstruction surveys and whether that frequency changed over time; frequency of studies explicitly designed to allow before‐after or impact‐control analyses; and what types of survey data were collected during pre‐ and postconstruction periods and how those data types were standardized across periods and among facilities. Within our data set, postconstruction monitoring for wildlife fatalities and habitat use was a standard practice ( n = 446 reports), but preconstruction estimation of baseline wildlife habitat use and mortality was less frequently reported ( n = 84). Only 22% ( n = 45) of the 203 facilities provided data from both pre‐ and postconstruction, and 29% ( n = 59) had experimental study designs. Of 108 facilities at which habitat‐use surveys were conducted, only 3% estimated of detection probability. Thus, the available data generally preclude comparison of biological data across construction periods and among facilities. Use of experimental study designs and following similar field protocols would improve the knowledge of how renewable energy affects wildlife.

Conservation Biology↗

Conservation and Ecology of Marine Forage Fishes--Proceedings of a Research Symposium, September 2012

Locally and globally, there is growing recognition of the critical roles that herring, smelt, sand lance, eulachon, and other forage fishes play in marine ecosystems. Scientific and resource management entities throughout the Salish Sea, agree that extensive information gaps exist, both in basic biological knowledge and parameters critical to fishery management. Communication and collaboration among researchers also is inadequate. Building on the interest and enthusiasm generated by recent forage fish workshops and symposia around the region, the 2012 Research Symposium on the Conservation and Ecology of Marine Forage Fishes was designed to elucidate practical recommendations for science and policy needs and actions, and spur further collaboration in support for the precautionary management of forage fish. This dynamic and productive event was a joint venture of the Northwest Straits Commission Forage Fish Program, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), and The Puget Sound Partnership. The symposium was held on September 12–14, 2012, at the University of Washington, Friday Harbor Laboratories campus. Sixty scientists, graduate students, and fisheries policy experts convened; showcasing ongoing research, conservation, and management efforts targeting forage fish from regional and national perspectives. The primary objectives of this event were to: (1) review current research and management related to marine forage fish species; and (2) identify priority science and policy needs and actions for Washington, British Columbia, and the entire West Coast. Given the diversity of knowledge, interests, and disciplines surrounding forage fish on both sides of the international border, the organizing committee made a concerted effort to contact many additional experts who, although unable to attend, provided valuable insights and ideas to the symposium structure and discussions. The value of the symposium format was highlighted in the closing remarks delivered by Joseph Gaydos, SeaDoc Society and Chair of the Puget Sound Science Panel. Dr. Gaydos’ presentation referenced the 2011 paper by Murray Rudd in the journal Conservation Biology , “How research-prioritization exercises affect conservation policy.” The paper points out that policy makers and funding agencies are more likely to gain a full understanding of issues when they are presented with research findings from an aligned research program. That is, compared to unaligned research strategies, where work is not based on identified research priorities.

Open-File Report↗

Cloning, sequencing, and expression of interferon-γ from elk in North America

Eradication of Mycobacterium bovis relies on accurate detection of infected animals, including potential domestic and wildlife reservoirs. Available diagnostic tests lack the sensitivity and specificity necessary for accurate detection, particularly in infected wildlife populations. Recently, an in vitro diagnostic test for cattle which measures plasma interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) levels in blood following in vitro incubation with M. bovis purified protein derivative has been enveloped. This test appears to have increased sensitivity over traditional testing. Unfortunately, it does not detect IFN-γ from Cervidae. To begin to address this problem, the IFN-γ gene from elk ( Cervus elaphus ) was cloned, sequenced, expressed, and characterized. cDNA was cloned from mitogen stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells. The predicted amino acid (aa) sequence was compared to known sequences from cattle, sheep, goats, red deer ( Cervus elaphus ), humans, and mice. Biological activity of the recombinant elk IFN-γ (rElkIFN-γ) was confirmed in a vesicular stomatitis virus cytopathic effect reduction assay. Production of monoclonal antibodies to IFN-γ epitopes conserved between ruminant species could provide an important tool for the development of reliable, practical diagnostic assays for detection of a delayed type hypersensitivity response to a variety of persistent infectious agents in ruminants, including M. bovis and Brucella abortus . Moreover, development of these reagents will aid investigators in studies to explore immunological responses of elk that are associated with resistance to infectious diseases.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

Conservation of North American rallids

The Rallidae are a diverse group in their habitat selection, yet most North American species occur in or near wetlands As a consequence, most species are subject to habitat enhancement or perturbation from waterfowl management programs. The overall effects of these management programs relative to rallid conservation have been assessed for few species, and there is a need for synthesis of such information. In the cases of some species or raves, population status is not known, and suggested directions for conservation and management are needed. Rare, endangered, or status undetermined species or races often occur in areas where related species are classified as game birds, and the effects of such hunting on rarer forms are not known. Their generally secretive nature, the endangered status of several races and populations, and continued loss of habitat and threats to present habitat, warrant an examination of the conservation status of the North American taxa in this group. In 1977, a committee of the International Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies summarized available information on management and biology of American Coots ( Fulica americana ), rails, and gallinules in North America (Holliman 1977). That summary was intended to provide relatively complete information on conservation of these species, and also to provide guidance for research within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Accelerated Research Program for Webless Migratory Shore and Upland Game Birds (ARP). Subsequently, a number of rallid studies were funded under this program. The program was eliminated in 1982, following substantial research activities on North American rallids. Since the demise of the ARP, additional research on rallids in North America has focused on an area the International Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies report failed to cover in detail--that of endangered rallids in the U.S. and their possessions. Most of these studies have been of threatened and endangered taxa in western coastal marshes. This report updates and summarizes information on North American rallids since the ARP report and identifies the major conservation problems of this group with the intent of focusing future efforts on these priority issues. Consideration of island forms occurring within U.S. possessions is beyond the scope of this report, mainly because of the special conservation problems associated with their insular distribution. The major topics include habitat requirements, effects of habitat and hunting management techniques currently practiced on wetland areas, and conservation of endangered and threatened populations. Research needs are identified. Habitats of the American Coot are similar to those of several waterfowl species, and the biology of coots is considered only as it is typical of rails in general.

The Wilson Bulletin↗

Mercury cycling in agricultural and managed wetlands: a synthesis of methylmercury production, hydrologic export, and bioaccumulation from an integrated field study

With seasonal wetting and drying, and high biological productivity, agricultural wetlands (rice paddies) may enhance the conversion of inorganic mercury (Hg(II)) to methylmercury (MeHg), the more toxic, organic form that biomagnifies through food webs. Yet, the net balance of MeHg sources and sinks in seasonal wetland environments is poorly understood because it requires an annual, integrated assessment across biota, sediment, and water components. We examined a suite of wetlands managed for rice crops or wildlife during 2007–2008 in California's Central Valley, in an area affected by Hg contamination from historic mining practices. Hydrologic management of agricultural wetlands for rice, wild rice, or fallowed — drying for field preparation and harvest, and flooding for crop growth and post-harvest rice straw decay — led to pronounced seasonality in sediment and aqueous MeHg concentrations that were up to 95-fold higher than those measured concurrently in adjacent, non-agricultural permanently-flooded and seasonally-flooded wetlands. Flooding promoted microbial MeHg production in surface sediment of all wetlands, but extended water residence time appeared to preferentially enhance MeHg degradation and storage. When incoming MeHg loads were elevated, individual fields often served as a MeHg sink, rather than a source. Slow, horizontal flow of shallow water in the agricultural wetlands led to increased importance of vertical hydrologic fluxes, including evapoconcentration of surface water MeHg and transpiration-driven advection into the root zone, promoting temporary soil storage of MeHg. Although this hydrology limited MeHg export from wetlands, it also increased MeHg exposure to resident fish via greater in situ aqueous MeHg concentrations. Our results suggest that the combined traits of agricultural wetlands — slow-moving shallow water, manipulated flooding and drying, abundant labile plant matter, and management for wildlife — may enhance microbial methylation of Hg(II) and MeHg exposure to local biota, as well as export to downstream habitats during uncontrolled winter-flow events.

California↗

Restoring monarch butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: 'All hands on deck'

The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus plexippus ) has declined by >80% within the last two decades. One possible cause of this decline is the loss of ≥1.3 billion stems of milkweed ( Asclepias spp.), which monarchs require for reproduction. In an effort to restore monarchs to a population goal established by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and adopted by Mexico, Canada, and the US, we developed scenarios for amending the Midwestern US landscape with milkweed. Scenarios for milkweed restoration were developed for protected area grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program land, powerline, rail and roadside rights of way, urban/suburban lands, and land in agricultural production. Agricultural land was further divided into productive and marginal cropland. We elicited expert opinion as to the biological potential (in stems per acre) for lands in these individual sectors to support milkweed restoration and the likely adoption (probability) of management practices necessary for affecting restoration. Sixteen of 218 scenarios we developed for restoring milkweed to the Midwestern US were at levels (>1.3 billion new stems) necessary to reach the monarch population goal. One of these scenarios would convert all marginal agriculture to conserved status. The other 15 scenarios converted half of marginal agriculture (730 million stems), with remaining stems contributed by other societal sectors. Scenarios without substantive agricultural participation were insufficient for attaining the population goal. Agricultural lands are essential to reaching restoration targets because they occupy 77% of all potential monarch habitat. Barring fundamental changes to policy, innovative application of economic tools such as habitat exchanges may provide sufficient resources to tip the balance of the agro-ecological landscape toward a setting conducive to both robust agricultural production and reduced imperilment of the migratory monarch butterfly.

Conservation Letters↗

Biological assessment of a proposed vegetation management program to benefit tribes in eastern Oklahoma

Tribal communities may benefit from land management activities that enhance their use of resources on tribal lands. The Bureau of Indian Affairs is implementing a 5-year vegetation management program to provide support for projects that develop and use natural and cultural resources and improve opportunities for agricultural activities to benefit 20 Indian Tribes and Nations in the Eastern Oklahoma Region of the Bureau of Indian Affairs. The bureau is working with individual Tribes to identify project objectives and design treatments, which include prescribed burning, timber removal, thinning, and reduction of hazardous fuels. The total action area for the vegetation management program is estimated to be 236,575 acres, representing approximately 1 percent of the region. A biological assessment was prepared, in cooperation with the bureau and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, to evaluate the potential effects of the proposed vegetation management program on 22 federally threatened, endangered, and candidate species that may occur within the Eastern Oklahoma Region. The species evaluated included one plant, two insects, one reptile, five fresh-water mussels, four fishes, five birds, and four bats. Because the proposed treatments will be largely restricted to terrestrial systems, it is expected that there will be no adverse effects on the 15 species associated with aquatic habitats, provided that best management practices are followed. The proposed treatments may affect but are unlikely to adversely affect six of the primarily terrestrial species (the Papaipema eryngii [rattlesnake master borer], Picoides borealis [red-cockaded woodpecker], Myotis grisescens [gray bat], Myotis sodalis [Indiana bat], Myotis septentrionalis [northern long-eared bat], and Corynorhinus townsendii ingens [Ozark big-eared bat]), provided that best management practices are followed, including avoidance of critical habitat features. The only species likely to be adversely affected by the proposed treatments is Nicrophorus americanus (American burying beetle) as a consequence of short-term disturbances to soils and vegetation. Most adverse effects of the treatments (such as soil compaction and decreased cover in the forest understory) are expected to be short term (habitat will recover or be restored within 5 years of treatments). Less than 1 percent of the action area is expected to result in long-term adverse effects to the American burying beetle as a result of permanent cover changes that persist for more than 5 years. It is expected that the primary treatments will be largely beneficial to the American burying beetle population in the region by reducing the risk of high-severity fires and expansion of invasive woody shrubs, such as Juniperus virginiana (eastern redcedar) within potential beetle habitat and the surrounding landscape. Overall, the proposed management program is expected to provide long-term benefits to American burying beetle habitat across 91 percent of the action area.

Oklahoma↗

Birdwatching preferences reveal synergies and tradeoffs among recreation, carbon, and fisheries ecosystem services in Pacific Northwest estuaries, USA

Coastal ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services that are valued in diverse ways. The Nisqually River Delta (the Delta), an estuary in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., is co-managed by the Nisqually Indian Tribe and the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge. In an ecosystem services assessment, we used different service-appropriate methods including citizen science, statistical and geospatial models, and scenario analysis to evaluate three ecosystem services – recreational birdwatching, soil carbon accumulation and fishery production – indicated as priorities for the Refuge, Nisqually Indian Tribe, and surrounding communities. We developed a generalized additive mixed model set based on eBird mobile application birdwatching observations to understand the biological and landscape features that influence birdwatching and to project birdwatching visitation based on scenarios of Delta habitat change. We evaluated ecosystem service synergies and tradeoffs associated with habitat change for three coastal habitat types using scenario outputs from the birdwatching model and published results on Delta soil carbon accumulation and fishery production. The highest-ranked birdwatching models explained 88 % of the deviance and showed that visitation was greatest in winter months when distance to major cities was approximately 20 km. Recreational birdwatching increased with increasing area of forested wetland, emergent wetland, aquatic vegetation bed, open access, and total estuary. With increasing forested and emergent wetland area, recreational birdwatching, out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon weight and soil carbon accumulation all increased. With increasing aquatic vegetation bed (resulting from sea level rise), recreational birdwatching increased, but salmon weight and soil carbon accumulation decreased. We identified practical ways in which ecosystem services may be incorporated into adaptive management frameworks that support climate adaptation decision making. This study illustrated how use of ecosystem services can help managers make decisions that have greater benefit for wildlife and people, communicate the societal value of decisions and increase local support and participation.

Washington↗

Development of a species status assessment process for decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) require scientific input on the risk that the species will become extinct. A series of critiques on the role of science in ESA decisions have called for improved consistency and transparency in species risk assessments and clear distinctions between science input and policy application. To address the critiques and document the emerging practice of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), we outline an assessment process based on principles and practices of risk and decision analyses that results in a scientific report on species status. The species status assessment (SSA) process has three successive stages: 1) document the life history and ecological relationships of the species in question to provide the foundation for the assessment, 2) describe and hypothesize causes for the current condition of the species, and 3) forecast the species' future condition. The future condition refers to the ability of a species to sustain populations in the wild under plausible future scenarios. The scenarios help explore the species' response to future environmental stressors and to assess the potential for conservation to intervene to improve its status. The SSA process incorporates modeling and scenario planning for prediction of extinction risk and applies the conservation biology principles of representation, resiliency, and redundancy to evaluate the current and future condition. The SSA results in a scientific report distinct from policy application, which contributes to streamlined, transparent, and consistent decision-making and allows for greater technical participation by experts outside of the USFWS, for example, by state natural resource agencies. We present two case studies based on assessments of the eastern massasauga rattlesnake Sistrurus catenatus and the Sonoran Desert tortoise Gopherus morafkai to illustrate the process. The SSA builds upon the past threat-focused assessment by including systematic and explicit analyses of a species' future response to stressors and conservation, and as a result, we believe it provides an improved scientific analysis for ESA decisions.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

Dust control products at Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge, Texas: environmental safety and performance

Controlling fugitive dust while protecting natural resources is a challenge faced by all managers of unpaved roads. Unfortunately, road managers choosing between dust control products often have little objective environmental information to aid their decisions. To address this information gap, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service collaborated on a field test of three dust control products with the objectives of ( a ) evaluating product performance under real-world conditions, ( b ) verifying the environmental safety of products identified as practically nontoxic in laboratory tests, and ( c ) testing the feasibility of several environmental monitoring techniques for use in dust control tests. In cooperation with refuge staff and product vendors, three products (one magnesium chloride plus binder, one cellulose, and one synthetic fluid plus binder) were applied in July 2012 to replicated road sections at the Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge in Texas. These sections were monitored periodically for 12 months after application. Product performance was assessed by mobile-mounted particulate-matter meters measuring production of fugitive dust and by observations of road conditions. Environmental safety was evaluated through on-site biological observations and leaching tests with samples of treated aggregate. All products reduced dust and improved surface condition during those 12 months. Planned environmental measurements were not always compatible with day-to-day refuge management actions; this incompatibility highlighted the need for flexible biological monitoring plans. As one of the first field tests of dust suppressants that explicitly incorporated biological endpoints, this effort provides valuable information for improving field tests and for developing laboratory or semifield alternatives.

Texas↗

Native Prairie Adaptive Management: a multi region adaptive approach to invasive plant management on Fish and Wildlife Service owned native prairies

Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern Great Plains is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses, smooth brome ( Bromus inermis ) and Kentucky bluegrass ( Poa pratensis ). Management to suppress these invasive plants has had poor to inconsistent success. The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. In partnership with the FWS, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. This joint partnership is known as the Native Prairie Adaptive Management (NPAM) initiative. The NPAM decision framework is built around practical constraints faced by FWS refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen FWS field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, have participated in the initiative. These FWS cooperators share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. Though the scope is broad, the initiative interfaces with individual land managers who provide site-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators. We describe the technical components of this approach, how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. During an initial scoping workshop, FWS cooperators developed a consensus management objective: increase the composition of native grasses and forbs on native sod while minimizing cost. Cooperators agreed that decision guidance should be provided annually and should account for local, real-time vegetation conditions observed on the ground. Over the course of development, two prototypes of the decision framework were considered. The final framework recognized four alternative actions that managers could take in any given year: (1) Graze—targeted use of grazing ungulates to achieve defoliation, (2) Burn—application of prescribed fire as the single form of defoliation, (3) Burn/Graze—a combination treatment, and (4) Rest—no action. The study area included northern mixed-grass and tallgrass prairie. Native vegetation in mixed–grass prairie has a strong cool-season component and thus the dominant native species have a phenology similar to that of smooth brome and Kentucky bluegrass, making management of those species challenging. In contrast, tallgrass prairie has a strong warm-season native component, leading to an existence of cool-season windows, periods of time in the fall and spring when cool‐season invasive grass species are actively growing and vulnerable to damage via select management actions, but warm‐season grass species are not active and are thus less susceptible to damage via the same actions. This dichotomy between prairie types necessitated the development of separate but parallel decision support systems for mixed-grass and tallgrass biomes. Management units are parcels of native prairie that receive a single management treatment at any one time over their entire extent. At any particular time, the vegetation state of each management unit is characterized by the amount of cover of native grasses and forbs and the type of invasive grass that is dominant. In addition, each unit has a defoliation state which reflects the number of years since the last defoliation event and an index to how intensively the unit was managed during the previous 7 years. State-transition models are used to predict the state of a management unit in year t+1 from its state in year t and a prescribed management action that was applied between the two monitoring events. Alternative models are built around key uncertainties that make choice of a management action difficult. Three uncertainties revolve around whether the effect of management actions depends on (1) type of dominant invader, (2) past defoliation history, and (3) level of invasion. Two additional uncertainties are considered when choosing a management action for tallgrass units: (4) the effectiveness of grazing within the cool-season window as a surrogate for burning when smooth brome is the dominant invader, and (5) the differential effect of active management outside the window as compared to rest. Because data on the probability of transitioning from one state to another under the various models were lacking, expert opinion and elicitation were used to parameterize the models. In addition, cooperators participated in elicitation exercises to extract their beliefs regarding the value of having native prairie compared to the cost of achieving it. Quantifying the subjective expression of utility in this way allowed for mathematical representation of the management objective into an objective function. By maximizing the objective function, cumulative utility is maximized, leading to the identification of a sequence of decisions that will achieve the management objective. The NPAM system adopted a vegetation monitoring protocol that was rapid, inexpensive, and familiar to many of the cooperators. The monitoring protocol served three purposes: (1) determining current vegetation and defoliation states of each unit, (2) evaluating progress toward the management objective, and (3) assessing predictive performance of the alternative models. The management year runs from September 1 to August 31. Management can be applied anytime during that period and monitoring takes places from late June to mid-August. Cooperators enter vegetation data and management information into a centralized database by August 25 of each year. Given the current state of the system (vegetation and defoliation states) and the current understanding of the system (or the belief state), identifying the current best management decision is a matter of looking up the combination (that is, system state and belief state) in the appropriate (mixed-grass or tallgrass) optimal decision table. Given complete uncertainty at the outset of decision-making, initial assignment of equal belief weights to each model was believed reasonable. The decisions in the optimal decision table that correspond to the current belief state constitute the current optimal decision policy. By August 31 of each year, individual cooperators are provided with a recommended management action for each of their management units for the upcoming management year. Upon receiving the management recommendations for their units, managers consider the recommendation, along with other relevant information, and at some point during the year one of the management alternatives is carried out. This iterative cycle of making and implementing a management decision, predicting the response, monitoring the outcome, comparing predicted and observed outcomes, updating model weights, and recommending a management action for the next cycle is expected to result in an accumulation of weight on a representative model of system dynamics, thereby increasing understanding needed to effectively manage native prairies. The NPAM system is now entering its second full year of complete operation, and represents one of only a few fully implemented applications of adaptive management within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. NPAM is truly unique in that it originated from the ground up as a result of the leadership and steadfastness of several refuge biologists and managers confronted with a common problem. These biologists recognized that working together across a large landscape presented perhaps the best opportunity for halting and reversing the invasion of native grasslands by non-native cool-season grasses. Importantly, the NPAM system encapsulates the collective thinking and experience of tens if not hundreds of individuals who have battled this vexing problem for much of their careers. The NPAM initiative is rooted in principles of adaptive management, thereby affording the opportunity for grassland managers to pursue management objectives while acquiring information to reduce uncertainty and improve future management. The project introduced a number of technical innovations that will serve as templates for conservation efforts throughout and beyond the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. First, NPAM is an on-the-ground implementation of active adaptive management—possibly the first of its kind in conservation management—in which recommended management actions result from a prospective analysis of future learning (Williams, 1996). Second, by the use of dynamic optimization, NPAM demonstrates how decisions can be made that take into account possible future transitions of the system. Third, NPAM demonstrates how models of partial controllability are an effective means of accommodating unpredictable circumstances that cause a manager to follow a different course than was intended. Finally, the database developed for NPAM is an unparalleled system that enables the rapid integration of data from the field for the generation of ‘just-in-time’ management recommendations. In all, NPAM provides an example of how a science-management partnership can be forged to achieve large-scale conservation objectives.

Minnesota;Montana;North Dakota;South Dakota↗

Conservation status and recovery strategies for endemic Hawaiian birds

Populations of endemic Hawaiian birds declined catastrophically following the colonization of the islands by Polynesians and later cultures. Extinction is still occurring, and recovery programs are urgently needed to prevent the disappearance of many other species. Programs to recover the endemic avifauna incorporate a variety of conceptual and practical approaches that are constrained by biological, financial, social, and legal factors. Avian recovery is difficult to implement in Hawai‘i because a variety of challenging biological factors limit bird populations. Hawaiian birds are threatened by alien predatory mammals, introduced mosquitoes that transmit diseases, alien invertebrate parasites and predators that reduce invertebrate food resources, and alien animals and plants that destroy and alter habitats. Life in the remote Hawaiian Archipelago has imposed other biological constraints to avian recovery, including limited geographical distributions and small population sizes. Recovery of the endemic avifauna is also challenging because resources are insufficient to mitigate the many complex, interacting factors that limit populations. Decisions must be made for allocating limited resources to species teetering on the brink of extinction and those in decline. If funds are spent primarily on saving the rarest species, more abundant species will decline and become more difficult to recover. However, critically rare species will disappear if efforts are directed mainly towards restoring species that are declining but not in immediate danger of becoming extinct. Determining priorities is difficult also because management is needed both to supplement bird populations and to restore habitats of many species. Rare species cannot respond quickly to management efforts intended only to improve habitat and reduce limiting factors. Recovery is slow, if it occurs at all, because years or decades are generally required for habitat rehabilitation and because small populations of birds initially increase slowly even when habitat conditions are favorable. Consequently, even as habitat conditions begin to improve, small populations may disappear unless they are supplemented directly. Hawaiian bird conservation is also affected by social and legal factors, including hunting alien game species, commercial land use practices, and lawsuits and policies concerning endangered species and critical habitat. Influenced by this mixture of conflicting and competing issues, Hawaiian bird recovery programs range from management of single species and some components of their habitats to limited forms of community or ecosystem management. Although the effectiveness of most programs is difficult to evaluate because of monitoring limitations, several programs exemplify species and community management. Programs primarily intended to recover single species include Hawaiian Goose or Nene ( Branta sandvicensis ), Hawaiian Crow or ‘Alala ( Corvus hawaiiensis ), and Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ). Programs attempting to manage entire communities of forest birds include Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge and Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park on Hawai‘i, and Waikamoi Preserve, Hanawi Natural Area Reserve, and Haleakala National Park on Maui.

Hawaii↗