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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Resilience of Alaska’s boreal forest to climatic change

This paper assesses the resilience of Alaska’s boreal forest system to rapid climatic change. Recent warming is associated with reduced growth of dominant tree species, plant disease and insect outbreaks, warming and thawing of permafrost, drying of lakes, increased wildfire extent, increased postfire recruitment of deciduous trees, and reduced safety of hunters traveling on river ice. These changes have modified key structural features, feedbacks, and interactions in the boreal forest, including reduced effects of upland permafrost on regional hydrology, expansion of boreal forest into tundra, and amplification of climate warming because of reduced albedo (shorter winter season) and carbon release from wildfires. Other temperature-sensitive processes for which no trends have been detected include composition of plant and microbial communities, long-term landscape-scale change in carbon stocks, stream discharge, mammalian population dynamics, and river access and subsistence opportunities for rural indigenous communities. Projections of continued warming suggest that Alaska’s boreal forest will undergo significant functional and structural changes within the next few decades that are unprecedented in the last 6000 years. The impact of these social–ecological changes will depend in part on the extent of landscape reorganization between uplands and lowlands and on policies regulating subsistence opportunities for rural communities.

Alaska↗
USGS2004

Hazard analysis of landslides triggered by Typhoon Chata’an on July 2, 2002, in Chuuk State, Federated States of Micronesia

More than 250 landslides were triggered across the eastern volcanic islands of Chuuk State in the Federated States of Micronesia by torrential rainfall from tropical storm Chata’an on July 2, 2002. Landslides triggered during nearly 20 inches of rainfall in less than 24 hours caused 43 fatalities and the destruction or damage of 231 structures, including homes, schools, community centers, and medical dispensaries. Landslides also buried roads, crops, and water supplies. The landslides ranged in volume from a few cubic meters to more than 1 million cubic meters. Most of the failures began as slumps and transformed into debris flows, some of which traveled several hundred meters across coastal flatlands into populated areas. A landslide-inventory map produced after the storm shows that the island of Tonoas had the largest area affected by landslides, although the islands of Weno, Fefan, Etten, Uman, Siis, Udot, Eot, and Fanapanges also had significant landslides. Based on observations since the storm, we estimate the continuing hazard from landslides triggered by Chata’an to be relatively low. However, tropical storms and typhoons similar to Chata’an frequently develop in Micronesia and are likely to affect the islands of Chuuk in the future. To assess the landslide hazard from future tropical storms, we produced a hazard map that identifies landslide-source areas of high, moderate, and low hazard. This map can be used to identify relatively safe areas for relocating structures or establishing areas where people could gather for shelter in relative safety during future typhoons or tropical storms similar to Chata’an.

Chuuk State↗
USGS2010

Real-time seismic monitoring of structures: Data handling and case studies

Within the last decade, advances in the acquisition, processing and transmission of data from real-time seismic monitoring systems has contributed to the growth in the number structures instrumented with such systems. An equally important factor for such growth can be attributed to the demands by stakeholders to find rapid answers to important questions related to the functionality (or “state of health”) of structures during and immediately following a seismic event. Hence, rapid and accurate assessment of the damage condition or performance of a building or a lifeline structure is of paramount importance to stakeholders, including owners, leasers, permanent and/or temporary occupants, users of infrastructures, city officials and rescue teams that are concerned with safety of those in the building, and those that may be affected in nearby buildings and infrastructures. In earlier papers, we described how observed data from sensors deployed in structures can be configured to establish seismic health monitoring of structures. In these configurations, drift ratios are the main parametric indicator of damage condition of a building. The process described for buildings can be applied directly for bridges as well. For bridges, the term, “drift ratio” is not generally used; however, relative displacements of critical elements of a bridge can be construed as such. While real-time data from structural arrays indicate that these methods are reliable and provide requisite information for owners and other parties to make informed decisions and to choose among pre-defined actions following significant events, there are several issues related to data ownership, transmission and archiving. This paper examines the real-time seismic monitoring systems deployed mainly in the United States, with particular attention to data issues – handling, dissemination, storage, and archiving. In most cases, due to the numerous channels involved, the deployments in each one of the real-time structures can be considered to be an individual array. Two detailed cases are described that demonstrate the variability in data ownership and dissemination.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential

Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuations are typically self-initiated, on foot, and across the landscape (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Although evacuation to naturally occurring high ground may be feasible in some vulnerable communities, evacuation modeling has demonstrated that other communities may require vertical-evacuation structures within a hazard zone, such as berms or buildings, if at-risk individuals are to survive some types of sudden-onset hazards (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2013). Researchers use both static least-cost-distance (LCD) and dynamic agent-based models to assess the pedestrian evacuation potential of vulnerable communities. Although both types of models help to understand the evacuation landscape, LCD models provide a more general overview that is independent of population distributions, which may be difficult to quantify given the dynamic spatial and temporal nature of populations (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Recent LCD efforts related to local tsunami threats have focused on an anisotropic (directionally dependent) path distance modeling approach that incorporates travel directionality, multiple travel speed assumptions, and cost surfaces that reflect variations in slope and land cover (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012, 2013). The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software implements this anisotropic path-distance approach for pedestrian evacuation from sudden-onset hazards, with a particular focus at this time on local tsunami threats. The model estimates evacuation potential based on elevation, direction of movement, land cover, and travel speed and creates a map showing travel times to safety (a time map) throughout a hazard zone. Model results provide a general, static view of the evacuation landscape at different pedestrian travel speeds and can be used to identify areas outside the reach of naturally occurring high ground. In addition, data on the size and location of different populations within the hazard zone can be integrated with travel-time maps to create tables and graphs of at-risk population counts as a function of travel time to safety. As a decision-support tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst provides the capability to evaluate the effectiveness of various vertical-evacuation structures within a study area, both through time maps of the modeled travel-time landscape with a potential structure in place and through comparisons of population counts within reach of safety. The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst is designed for use by researchers examining the pedestrian-evacuation potential of an at-risk community. In communities where modeled evacuation times exceed the event (for example, tsunami wave) arrival time, researchers can use the software with emergency managers to assess the area and population served by potential vertical-evacuation options. By automating and managing the modeling process, the software allows researchers to concentrate efforts on providing crucial and timely information on community vulnerability to sudden-onset hazards.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2018

Variability in soil-water retention properties and implications for physics-based simulation of landslide early warning criteria

Rainfall-induced shallow landsliding is a persistent hazard to human life and property. Despite the observed connection between infiltration through the unsaturated zone and shallow landslide initiation, there is considerable uncertainty in how estimates of unsaturated soil-water retention properties affect slope stability assessment. This source of uncertainty is critical to evaluating the utility of physics-based hydrologic modeling as a tool for landslide early warning. We employ a numerical model of variably saturated groundwater flow parameterized with an ensemble of texture-, laboratory-, and field-based estimates of soil-water retention properties for an extensively monitored landslide-prone site in the San Francisco Bay Area, CA, USA. Simulations of soil-water content, pore-water pressure, and the resultant factor of safety show considerable variability across and within these different parameter estimation techniques. In particular, we demonstrate that with the same permeability structure imposed across all simulations, the variability in soil-water retention properties strongly influences predictions of positive pore-water pressure coincident with widespread shallow landsliding. We also find that the ensemble of soil-water retention properties imposes an order-of-magnitude and nearly two-fold variability in seasonal and event-scale landslide susceptibility, respectively. Despite the reduced factor of safety uncertainty during wet conditions, parameters that control the dry end of the soil-water retention function markedly impact the ability of a hydrologic model to capture soil-water content dynamics observed in the field. These results suggest that variability in soil-water retention properties should be considered for objective physics-based simulation of landslide early warning criteria.

Landslides↗
USGS2009

Seismic reflection characteristics of naturally-induced subsidence affecting transportation

High-resolution seismic reflections have been used effectively to investigate sinkholes formed from the dissolution of a bedded salt unit found throughout most of Central Kansas. Surface subsidence can have devastating effects on transportation structures. Roads, rails, bridges, and pipelines can even be dramatically affected by minor ground instability. Areas susceptible to surface subsidence can put public safety at risk. Subsurface expressions significantly larger than surface depressions are consistently observed on seismic images recorded over sinkholes in Kansas. Until subsidence reaches the ground surface, failure appears to be controlled by compressional forces evidenced by faults with reverse orientation. Once a surface depression forms or dissolution of the salt slows or stops, subsidence structures are consistent with a tensional stress environment with prevalent normal faults. Detecting areas of rapid subsidence potential, prior to surface failure, is the ultimate goal of any geotechnical survey where the ground surface is susceptible to settling. Seismic reflection images have helped correlate active subsidence to dormant paleofeatures, project horizontal growth of active sinkholes based on subsurface structures, and appraise the risk of catastrophic failure. ?? China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) and Springer-Verlag GmbH 2009.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

GPS in pioneering dynamic monitoring of long-period structures

Global Positioning System (GPS) technology with 10-20-Hz sampling rates allows scientifically justified dynamic measurements of relative displacements of long-period structures. The displacement response of a simulated tall building in real time and permanent deployment of GPS units at the roof of a building are described. To the authors' best knowledge, this is the first permanent deployment of GPS units (in the world) for continuous dynamic monitoring of a tall building. Data recorded from the building during a windy day is analyzed to determine the structural characteristics. When recorded during extreme motions caused by earthquakes and strong winds, such measurements can be used to compute average drift ratios and changes in dynamic characteristics, and therefore can be used by engineers and building owners or managers to assess the structural integrity and performance by establishing pre-established thresholds. Such information can be used to secure public safety and/or take steps to improve the performance of the building.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2015

UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" ( http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3 ), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

California↗
USGS2017

Oregon OCS seafloor mapping: Selected lease blocks relevant to renewable energy

In 2014 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) entered into Intra-agency agreement M13PG00037 to map an area of the Oregon Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) off of Coos Bay, Oregon, under consideration for development of a floating wind energy farm. The BOEM requires seafloor mapping and site characterization studies in order to evaluate the impact of seafloor and sub-seafloor conditions on the installation, operation, and structural integrity of proposed renewable energy projects, as well as to assess the potential effects of construction and operations on archaeological resources. The mission of the USGS is to provide geologic, topographic, and hydrologic information that contributes to the wise management of the Nation's natural resources and that promotes the health, safety, and well being of the people. This information consists of maps, databases, and descriptions and analyses of the water, energy, and mineral resources, land surface, underlying geologic structure, and dynamic processes of the earth. For the Oregon OCS study, the USGS acquired multibeam echo sounder and seafloor video data surrounding the proposed development site, which is 95 km2 in area and 15 miles offshore from Coos Bay. The development site had been surveyed by Solmar Hydro Inc. in 2013 under a contract with WindFloat Pacific. The USGS subsequently produced a bathymetry digital elevation model and a backscatter intensity grid that were merged with existing data collected by the contractor. The merged grids were published along with visual observations of benthic geo-habitat from the video data in an associated USGS data release (Cochrane and others, 2015). This report includes the results of analysis of the video data conducted by Oregon State University and the geo-habitat interpretation of the multibeam echo sounder (MBES) data conducted by the USGS. MBES data was published in Cochrane and others (2015). Interpretive data associated with this publication is published in Cochrane (2017). All the data is provided as geographic information system (GIS) files that contain both Esri ArcGIS geotiffs or shapefiles. For those who do not own the full suite of Esri GIS and mapping software, the data can be read using Esri ArcReader, a free viewer that is available at http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcreader/index.html (last accessed August 29, 2016). Web services, which consist of standard implementations of ArcGIS representational state transfer (REST) Service and Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) GIS web map service (WMS), also are available for all published GIS data. Web services were created using an ArcGIS service definition file, resulting in data layers that are symbolized as shown on the associated report figures. Both the ArcGIS REST Service and OGC WMS Service include all the individual GIS layers. Data layers are bundled together in a map-area web service; however, each layer can be symbolized and accessed individually after the web service is ingested into a desktop application or web map. Web services enable users to download and view data, as well as to easily add data to their own workflows, using any browser-enabled, standalone or mobile device. Though the surficial substrate is dominated by combinations of mud and sand substrate, a diverse assortment of geomorphologic features are related to geologic processes—one anticlinal ridge where bedrock is exposed, a slump and associated scarps, and pockmarks. Pockmarks are seen in the form of fields of small pockmarks, a lineation of large pockmarks with methanogenic carbonates, and areas of large pockmarks that have merged into larger variously shaped depressions. The slump appears to have originated at the pockmark lineation. Video-supervised numerical analysis of the MBES backscatter intensity data and vector ruggedness derived from the MBES bathymetry data was used to produce a substrate model called a seafloor character raster for the study area. The seafloor character raster consists of three substrate classes: soft-flat areas, hard-flat areas, and hard-rugged areas. A Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) geoform and substrate map was also produced using depth, slope, and benthic position index classes to delineate geoform boundaries. Seven geoforms were identified in this process, including ridges, slump scars, slump deposits, basins, and pockmarks. Statistical analysis of the video data for correlations between substrate, depth, and invertebrate assemblages resulted in the identification of seven biomes: three hard-bottom biomes and four softbottom biomes. A similar analysis of vertebrate observations produces a similar set of biomes. The biome between-group dissimilarity was very high or high. Invertebrates alone represent most of the structure of the whole benthic community into different assemblages. A biotope map was generated using the seafloor character raster and the substrate and depth values of the biomes. Hard substrate biotopes were small in size and were located primarily on the ridge and in pockmarks along the pockmark lineation. The soft-bottom bitopes consisted of large contiguous areas delimited by isobaths.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Incorporating road crossing data into vehicle collision risk models for moose (Alces americanus) in Massachusetts, USA

Wildlife–vehicle collisions are a human safety issue and may negatively impact wildlife populations. Most wildlife–vehicle collision studies predict high-risk road segments using only collision data. However, these data lack biologically relevant information such as wildlife population densities and successful road-crossing locations. We overcome this shortcoming with a new method that combines successful road crossings with vehicle collision data, to identify road segments that have both high biological relevance and high risk. We used moose ( Alces americanus ) road-crossing locations from 20 moose collared with Global Positioning Systems as well as moose–vehicle collision (MVC) data in the state of Massachusetts, USA, to create multi-scale resource selection functions. We predicted the probability of moose road crossings and MVCs across the road network and combined these surfaces to identify road segments that met the dual criteria of having high biological relevance and high risk for MVCs. These road segments occurred mostly on larger roadways in natural areas and were surrounded by forests, wetlands, and a heterogenous mix of land cover types. We found MVCs resulted in the mortality of 3% of the moose population in Massachusetts annually. Although there have been only three human fatalities related to MVCs in Massachusetts since 2003, the human fatality rate was one of the highest reported in the literature. The rate of MVCs relative to the size of the moose population and the risk to human safety suggest a need for road mitigation measures, such as fencing, animal detection systems, and large mammal-crossing structures on roadways in Massachusetts.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2011

Method for detecting moment connection fracture using high-frequency transients in recorded accelerations

The 1994 Northridge earthquake caused brittle fractures in steel moment frame building connections, despite causing little visible building damage in most cases. Future strong earthquakes are likely to cause similar damage to the many un-retrofitted pre-Northridge buildings in the western US and elsewhere. Without obvious permanent building deformation, costly intrusive inspections are currently the only way to determine if major fracture damage that compromises building safety has occurred. Building instrumentation has the potential to provide engineers and owners with timely information on fracture occurrence. Structural dynamics theory predicts and scale model experiments have demonstrated that sudden, large changes in structure properties caused by moment connection fractures will cause transient dynamic response. A method is proposed for detecting the building-wide level of connection fracture damage, based on observing high-frequency, fracture-induced transient dynamic responses in strong motion accelerograms. High-frequency transients are short (<1 s), sudden-onset waveforms with frequency content above 25 Hz that are visually apparent in recorded accelerations. Strong motion data and damage information from intrusive inspections collected from 24 sparsely instrumented buildings following the 1994 Northridge earthquake are used to evaluate the proposed method. The method’s overall success rate for this data set is 67%, but this rate varies significantly with damage level. The method performs reasonably well in detecting significant fracture damage and in identifying cases with no damage, but fails in cases with few fractures. Combining the method with other damage indicators and removing records with excessive noise improves the ability to detect the level of damage.

Journal of Constructional Steel Research↗
USGS2011

Recovering from the ShakeOut earthquake

Recovery from an earthquake like the M7.8 ShakeOut Scenario will be a major endeavor taking many years to complete. Hundreds of Southern California municipalities will be affected; most lack recovery plans or previous disaster experience. To support recovery planning this paper 1) extends the regional ShakeOut Scenario analysis into the recovery period using a recovery model, 2) localizes analyses to identify longer-term impacts and issues in two communities, and 3) considers the regional context of local recovery.Key community insights about preparing for post-disaster recovery include the need to: geographically diversify city procurement; set earthquake mitigation priorities for critical infrastructure (e.g., airport), plan to replace mobile homes with earthquake safety measures, consider post-earthquake redevelopment opportunities ahead of time, and develop post-disaster recovery management and governance structures. This work also showed that communities with minor damages are still sensitive to regional infrastructure damages and their potential long-term impacts on community recovery. This highlights the importance of community and infrastructure resilience strategies as well.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2012

Strong Motion Instrumentation of Seismically-Strengthened Port Structures in California by CSMIP

The California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP) has instrumented five port structures. Instrumentation of two more port structures is underway and another one is in planning. Two of the port structures have been seismically strengthened. The primary goals of the strong motion instrumentation are to obtain strong earthquake shaking data for verifying seismic analysis procedures and strengthening schemes, and for post-earthquake evaluations of port structures. The wharves instrumented by CSMIP were recommended by the Strong Motion Instrumentation Advisory Committee, a committee of the California Seismic Safety Commission. Extensive instrumentation of a wharf is difficult and would be impossible without the cooperation of the owners and the involvement of the design engineers. The instrumentation plan for a wharf is developed through study of the retrofit plans of the wharf, and the strong-motion sensors are installed at locations where specific instrumentation objectives can be achieved and access is possible. Some sensor locations have to be planned during design; otherwise they are not possible to install after construction. This paper summarizes the two seismically-strengthened wharves and discusses the instrumentation schemes and objectives. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2010

Groundwater flow systems at the Nevada Test Site, Nevada: A synthesis of potentiometric contours, hydrostratigraphy, and geologic structures

Contaminants introduced into the subsurface of the Nevada Test Site by underground nuclear testing are of concern to the U.S. Department of Energy and regulators responsible for protecting human health and safety. The potential for contaminant movement away from the underground test areas and into the accessible environment is greatest by groundwater transport. The primary hydrologic control on this transport is evaluated and examined through a series of contour maps developed to represent the hydraulic-head distribution within each of the major aquifers underlying the area. Aquifers were identified and their extents delineated by merging and analyzing multiple hydrostratigraphic framework models developed by other investigators from existing geologic information. A map of the hydraulic-head distribution in each major aquifer was developed from a detailed evaluation and assessment of available water-level measurements. Multiple spreadsheets that accompany this report provide pertinent water-level and geologic data by well or drill hole. Aquifers are mapped and discussed in general terms as being one of two types: alluvial–volcanic, or carbonate. Both aquifer types are subdivided and mapped as independent regional and local aquifers, based on the continuity of their component rock. Groundwater-flow directions, approximated from potentiometric contours that were developed from the hydraulic-head distribution, are indicated on the maps and discussed for each of the regional aquifers and for selected local aquifers. Hydraulic heads vary across the study area and are interpreted to range in altitude from greater than 5,000 feet in a regional alluvial–volcanic aquifer beneath a recharge area in the northern part of the study area to less than 2,300 feet in regional alluvial–volcanic and carbonate aquifers in the southwestern part of the study area. Flow directions throughout the study area are dominantly south-southwest with some local deviations. Vertical hydraulic gradients between aquifer types are downward throughout most of the study area; however, flow from the alluvial–volcanic aquifer into the underlying carbonate aquifer, where both aquifers are present, is believed to be minor because of an intervening confining unit. Limited exchange of water between aquifer types occurs by diffuse flow through the confining unit, by focused flow along fault planes, or by direct flow where the confining unit is locally absent. Interflow between regional aquifers is evaluated and mapped to define major flow paths. These flow paths delineate tributary flow systems, which converge to form intermediate and regional flow systems. The implications of these flow systems in controlling transport of radionuclides away from the underground test areas at the Nevada Test Site are briefly discussed. Additionally, uncertainties in the delineation of aquifers, the development of potentiometric contours, and the identification of flow systems are identified and evaluated. Eleven tributary flow systems and three larger flow systems are mapped in the Nevada Test Site area. Flow systems within the alluvial–volcanic aquifer dominate the western half of the study area, whereas flow systems within the carbonate aquifer are most prevalent in the southeastern half of the study area. Most of the flow in the regional alluvial–volcanic aquifer that moves through the underground testing area on Pahute Mesa is discharged to the land surface at springs and seeps in Oasis Valley. Flow in the regional carbonate aquifer is internally compartmentalized by major geologic structures, primarily thrust faults, which constrain flow into separate corridors. Contaminants that reach the regional carbonate aquifer from testing areas in Yucca and Frenchman Flats flow toward downgradient discharge areas through the Alkali Flat–Furnace Creek Ranch or Ash Meadows flow systems and their tributaries.

Nevada↗
USGS2024

The Interagency Coordinating Committee on the validation of alternative methods (ICCVAM)

Many ICCVAM member agencies are developing new technologies and resources to replace the use of animals for chemical safety testing. These include new platforms such as microphysiological systems (MPS), data resources to support the development of predictive models and quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSARs), and web tools to facilitate data access and visualization.

Report↗
USGS2025

Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation

As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area, the Engineering and Risk Project (ERP) of the Geologic Hazards Science Center conducts civil engineering research to extend natural hazards science to risk assessments. The ERP includes predominantly, but not exclusively, staff funded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A major focus of the ERP is to deliver actionable information to decisionmakers that helps promote the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The report discusses briefly the ERP’s evolution and scope, its organization structure, describes key products and deliverables, their efforts to engage with external partners, and its strategy and vision in conducting range of engineering and risk research. The research topics outlined in this report, as developed by the ERP, may be used to facilitate project planning activities during the next 10 years and serve as a longer-term planning resource for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and Geologic Hazards Science Center.

Circular↗
USGS2025

National Park Service staff perspectives on how climate change affects visitor use

1. Many public lands, including those managed by the U.S. National Park Service(NPS), have the purpose of conserving natural and cultural resources and providing opportunities for visitors to recreate in and enjoy these areas. Achieving this mission becomes more challenging as drought, flooding, increasing temperatures and other climatic change effects are impacting NPS lands and visitors and affecting factors such as visitation, recreation access and health and safety among other aspects of park operations. 2. However, the literature lacks insights from staff dealing with on-the-ground climate impacts to visitor use. To address this gap, we held semi-structured interviews with 63 staff from 31 NPS units across the United States (U.S.) to better understand the effects of climate change on visitor use. We qualitatively analysed the interviews using both deductive and inductive methods to identify key themes. 3. Interview participants consistently noted that climate change is already affecting visitor use at their parks. For instance, increasing temperatures are negatively affecting both staff and visitor safety at parks nationwide, whereas all coastal parks within our sample are already experiencing impacts from sea-level rise or more frequent and severe coastal storms and hurricanes. Other impacts include reduced recreational access, damaged infrastructure and cultural resources and diminished visitor experiences due to fire and smoke. 4. Similarly, concerns about future impacts often revolved around the health and safety of visitors and staff—particularly related to wildfire and smoke, water quality and availability, and increased heat—and climate change forever altering parks. 5. Our research shows staff in parks and protected areas are noticing effects of climate change on visitor use; some of these impacts have not been previously documented in the scientific literature. Study results highlight future visitor use management research needs and key topics to consider for visitor use planning processes.

People and Nature↗
USGS2023

Predicting methane emissions and developing reduction strategies for a Central Appalachian Basin, USA, longwall mine through analysis and modeling of geology and degasification system performance

Coal mine methane is a safety concern in active mines due to explosion risk and an environmental concern due to the greenhouse gas (GHG) properties of methane emissions to the atmosphere. Depending on the mine design and operation, structural and stratigraphic characteristics of the geology, and the properties of coal beds affected by mining, a significant amount of methane can be released during coal extraction. These emissions may be low and uniform, but they also can be high and abrupt, if not captured by using pre- and post-mining methods of degasification or not controlled by ventilation during mining. Therefore, emissions should be monitored and predicted accurately for underground safety and GHG reduction. Ventilation and degasification systems should be designed accordingly by taking into account the mine geological properties and the degasification system's performance. This paper presents a comprehensive study to predict emissions and proposes alternatives to reduce emissions in a longwall mine extracting metallurgical coal from the Pocahontas No. 3 coal bed in Virginia (Central Appalachian Basin), USA. The work focused on mining activity in four adjacent panels through analysis and modeling of geology and evaluation of the performance of the methane control system. Results showed that the mine geology contained a significant amount of gas within and around the panel areas, which was controlled by utilizing different degasification methods besides ventilation during mining. The study showed that after pre-mining degasification using fractured vertical wells and in-seam horizontal wells, each panel potentially contained ∼19 MMscf and ∼ 2 MMscf of gas remaining to be handled by the gob gas ventholes (GGVs) and the ventilation, respectively, per acre of mining. It was shown that extending the pre-mining degasification duration of vertical wells by as much as 4 years or drilling more horizontal wells with closer spacing could significantly reduce ventilation and gob emissions during the mining of coal.

Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia↗