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General summary of effects of the drought in the Southwest: Chapter H in Drought in the Southwest, 1942-56

This final chapter of Prof. Paper 372 summarizes the results of a comprehensive study of drought in the Southwest, as reported in greater detail in chapters A-G. Chapter A presents some of the published and recorded conclusions concerning the basic meteorological factors that influence the patterns of precipitation in the Southwest, and describes the characteristics of the drought of 1942-56 as indicated by meteorologic records. Chapter B is a general discussion of the effects of that drought as shown by hydrologic data. Subsequent chapters (C-G) provide more detailed evaluations of the effects of drought in individual river basins and specific localities. The effects of drought are discriminated from water shortages due to other causes wherever possible. For this summary, the hydrologic units in the Southwest are classified according to type, and examples of each type are cited, but no attempt is made to summarize the effects of drought in every hydrologic unit in the Southwest, as was described in preceding parts of this report. The comprehensive study of drought has required analysis of the longest records available concerning all aspects of the water resources, with special attention to the 1942-56 period to ascertain similarities with earlier drought periods and contrasts with periods of greater precipitation. Despite the intended emphasis on drought, the studies have been almost as broad in scope as general studies of interrelations of the hydrologic cycle.

Southwestern United States↗

Lithostratigraphy, geophysics, biostratigraphy, and strontium-isotope stratigraphy of the surficial aquifer system of eastern Collier County and northern Monroe County, Florida

In 1997, ten cores were drilled in eastern Collier County and northern Monroe County, within the limits of the Big Cypress National Preserve. These cores represent a continuation of the study of seven cores in western Collier County begun in 1996 and reported in Weedman and others (1997) and Edwards and others (1998). This joint U.S. Geological Survey and Florida Geological Survey project is designed to acquire subsurface geologic and hydrologic data in southwest Florida to extend current ground-water models, thereby expanding the utility of these models for land and water management. In this report we describe the lithostratigraphy, geophysical logging, sedimentological analysis, dinocyst biostratigraphy, and strontium-isotope stratigraphy of these ten cores. The three geophysical logs (natural gamma-ray, induction conductivity, and neutron porosity) assumed to be related to formation lithology and water quality show that a number of clay-rich zones are present in all of the boreholes, and that pore-water conductivity increases with depth. The clay-rich zones are confirmed by visual examination of core material and sedimentological analysis. The relative transmissivity calculated at 10-foot-thick intervals shows that in six of the boreholes, high values are associated with the shallow aquifer in the 0-40 ft interval. Two of the boreholes (the most northerly and the most easterly) showed relatively higher values of transmissivity in permeable zones at or somewhat below 100 ft in depth. Core geology and logs indicate that the deeper aquifers are not more permeable than similar deeper zones in the other boreholes, but rather that the shallow aquifer appears to be less permeable in these two coreholes. The Arcadia (?) Formation was only penetrated in the deepest core where it is late Miocene in age. The Peace River Formation was penetrated in all but the two westernmost cores. It yields a late Miocene age, based on both dinocysts and strontium-isotope stratigraphy. The top is an irregular surface. Age and stratigraphic relations suggest that the upper part of the Peace River and lower part of the unnamed formation are at least partially equivalent laterally. The unnamed formation was recovered in every core. It is thinnest in the northernmost core and thickest to the west. Ages calculated from strontium isotopes range from 6.9 to 4.6 million years ago (late Miocene to early Pliocene). The top of the unnamed formation is deepest to the north and it becomes shallower to the southwest. The Tamiami Formation also was recovered in every core and consistently yields early Pliocene ages; it yields late Pliocene ages near the top in two cores. The age and lateral relations strongly suggest that the lower part of the Tamiami Formation and the upper part of the unnamed formation are lateral facies of each other. The Fort Thompson (?) Formation, Miami Limestone, and undifferentiated siliciclastic sediments and limestone at the very top of the cores were not dated.

Florida↗

Hydrology of the Claiborne aquifer and interconnection with the Upper Floridan aquifer in southwest Georgia

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study, in cooperation with the Georgia Environmental Protection Division, to define the hydrologic properties of the Claiborne aquifer and evaluate its connection with the Upper Floridan aquifer in southwest Georgia. The effort involved collecting and compiling hydrologic data from the aquifer in subarea 4 of southwestern Georgia. Data collected for this study include borehole geophysical logs in 7 wells, and two 72-hour aquifer tests to determine aquifer properties. The top of the Claiborne aquifer extends from an altitude of about 200 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) in Terrell County to 402 feet below NAVD 88 in Decatur County, Georgia. The base of the aquifer extends from an altitude of about 60 feet above NAVD 88 in eastern Sumter County to about 750 feet below NAVD 88 in Decatur County. Aquifer thickness ranges from about 70 feet in eastern Early County to 400 feet in Decatur County. The transmissivity of the Claiborne aquifer, determined from two 72-hour aquifer tests, was estimated to be 1,500 and 700 feet squared per day in Mitchell and Early Counties, respectively. The storage coefficient was estimated to be 0.0006 and 0.0004 for the same sites, respectively. Aquifer test data from Mitchell County indicate a small amount of leakage occurred during the test. Groundwater-flow models suggest that the source of the leakage was the underlying Clayton aquifer, which produced about 2.5 feet of drawdown in response to pumping in the Claiborne aquifer. The vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining unit between the Claiborne and Clayton aquifers was simulated to be about 0.02 foot per day. Results from the 72-hour aquifer tests run for this study indicated no interconnection between the Claiborne and overlying Upper Floridan aquifers at the two test sites. Additional data are needed to monitor the effects that increased withdrawals from the Claiborne aquifer may have on future water resources.

Georgia↗

Synoptic analysis and WRF-Chem model simulation of dust events in the southwestern United States

Dust transported from rangelands of the Southwestern United States (US) to mountain snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin during spring (March-May) forces earlier and faster snowmelt, which creates problems for water resources and agriculture. To better understand the drivers of dust events, we investigated large-scale meteorology responsible for organizing two Southwest US dust events from two different dominant geographic locations: (a) the Colorado Plateau and (b) the northern Chihuahuan Desert. High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) simulations with the Air Force Weather Agency dust emission scheme incorporating a MODIS albedo-based drag-partition was used to explore land surface-atmosphere interactions driving two dust events. We identified commonalities in their meteorological setups. The meteorological analyses revealed that Polar and Sub-tropical jet stream interaction was a common upper-level meteorological feature before each of the two dust events. When the two jet streams merged, a strong northeast-directed pressure gradient upstream and over the source areas resulted in strong near-surface winds, which lifted available dust into the atmosphere. Concurrently, a strong mid-tropospheric flow developed over the dust source areas, which transported dust to the San Juan Mountains and southern Colorado snowpack. The WRF-Chem simulations reproduced both dust events, indicating that the simulations represented the dust sources that contributed to dust-on-snow events reasonably well. The representativeness of the simulated dust emission and transport in different geographic and meteorological conditions with our use of albedo-based drag partition provides a basis for additional dust-on-snow simulations to assess the hydrologic impact in the Southwest US.

southwestern United States↗

Hydrology and water quality in the Nederlo Creek Basin, Wisconsin, before construction of two water-retention structures

The Nederlo Creek basin, in the "Driftless Area" of southwest Wisconsin, is geographically and hydrologically similar to other small basins in the area. Topography is rugged, with approximately 400 feet of relief between the boundary ridge tops and the valley floor. The water-retention structures (a dry floodwater- retention structure and a 43-acre reservoir) are to provide recreation and flood protection for the basin. Streamflow, springflow, precipitation, and groundwater levels were monitored at several sites to describe the hydrologic system. Streamflow is fairly constant at base flow, but rapid changes in discharge occur during periods of snowmelt or heavy rain; recession to base-flow discharge following these events is rapid. Surface runoff is a significant contributor to Streamflow only 10 percent of the time. The mean annual hydrologic budget for water years 1968-72 shows that of the 32.5 inches of precipitation on the basin, 6.4 inches left as runoff and 25.9 inches as evapotranspiration; ground-water storage increased an average of 0.2 inches per year. The water is a hard calcium magnesium bicarbonate type. Concentrations of major constituents in ground water and streams at base flow are similar, but concentrations in the stream generally decrease during periods when surface runoff contributes to Streamflow. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the stream are generally lowest during the summer; nighttime lows are generally between 7 and 8 milligrams per liter and daily maximums between 11 and 12.5 milligrams per liter. Diurnal water-temperature fluctuations of several degrees are common in streams during summer; daily maximum water temperatures as high as 26°C have been measured in some areas, but temperatures this high seldom persist for more than 2 hours. Estimates of mean annual total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads during 1967-74 fall within the ranges of 0.02 to 0.07 and 0.4 to 0.8 tons per square mile, respectively; 70 to 80 percent of the total phosphorus and 35 to 55 percent of the total nitrogen are transported during periods when surface runoff contributes to Streamflow. Mean annual suspended-sediment loads during 1968-74 range from 13 to 60 tons per square mile, with 74 to 86 percent of the total transported during periods when surface water contributes to streamflow. These sediment loads are at the low end of the range previously reported for streams in the "Driftless Area".

Wisconsin↗

Digital model of the Bates Creek alluvial aquifer near Casper, Wyoming

A digital model was used to simulate ground-water flow within the Bates Creek alluvial aquifer, southwest of Casper, Wyoming. Hydrologic data collected during 1977 and 1978 were used to develop the flow model under steady-state and transient conditions. Three scenarios for operating the stream-aquifer system were evaluated with the digital model. The scenarios represent no ground-water pumping, pumping by all existing wells , and pumping by all existing and proposed wells. The model simulations used average values of stream discharge, ground-water pumpage and water use as input parameters. A decrease in the quantitity of ground-water discharge to Bates Creek is predicted to occur through 1988 as a result of pumping. The magnitude and timing of the predicted decrease in ground-water discharge may differ from actual ground-water discharge if hydrologic conditions through 1988 vary significantly from the averaged input values used in the simulations. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Hydrologic data for floods of July 1978 in Southeast Minnesota and Southwest Wisconsin

Intense storms of July 1978 caused floods of historical significance in southeast Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin. Local, State, and Federal officials need data and information to evaluate, coordinate, and manage programs concerned with floods and flood losses. Because of a need to document stream discharges, elevations, and sediment concentrations, current-meter and indirect measurements were made at 34 gaging stations during or immediately after the floods. This report summarizes some of the hydrologic data collected. Peak discharges of record occurred at 20 gaging stations. Frequency of peak discharge equaled or exceeded the 100-year recurrence interval at 11 stations. The Federal Benchmark gaging station on the North Fork Whitewater River was destroyed. Five people died as a result of the floods, and property damages were estimated to exceed $114 million. Thirty-three counties were officially declared disaster areas.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Sensitivity of aquatic ecosystems to climatic and anthropogenic changes: The basin and range, American Southwest and Mexico

Variability and unpredictability are characteristics of the aquatic ecosystems, hydrological patterns and climate of the largely dryland region that encompasses the Basin and Range, American Southwest and western Mexico. Neither hydrological nor climatological models for the region are sufficiently developed to describe the magnitude or direction of change in response to increased carbon dioxide; thus, an attempt to predict specific responses of aquatic ecosystems is premature. Instead, we focus on the sensitivity of rivers, streams, springs, wetlands, reservoirs, and lakes of the region to potential changes in climate, especially those inducing a change in hydrological patterns such as amount, timing and predictability of stream flow. The major sensitivities of aquatic ecosystems are their permanence and even existence in the face of potential reduced net basin supply of water, stability of geomorphological structure and riparian ecotones with alterations in disturbance regimes, and water quality changes resulting from a modified water balance. In all of these respects, aquatic ecosystems of the region are also sensitive to the extensive modifications imposed by human use of water resources, which underscores the difficulty of separating this type of anthropogenic change from climate change. We advocate a focus in future research on reconstruction and analysis of past climates and associated ecosystem characteristics, long-term studies to discriminate directional change vs. year to year variability (including evidence of aquatic ecosystem responses or sensitivity to extremes), and studies of ecosystems affected by human activity.

Hydrological Processes↗

Characterization of hydrology and salinity in the Dolores project area, McElmo Creek region, southwest Colorado, water years 1978-2006

Increasing salinity loading in the Colorado River has become a major concern for agricultural and municipal water supplies. The Colorado Salinity Control Act was implemented in 1974 to protect and enhance the quality of water in the Colorado River Basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation and the Colorado River Salinity Control Forum, summarized salinity reductions in the McElmo Creek basin in southwest Colorado as a result of salinity-control modifications and flow-regime changes that result from the Dolores Project, which consists of the construction of McPhee reservoir on the Dolores River and salinity control modifications along the irrigation water delivery system. Flow-adjusted salinity trends using S-LOADEST estimations for a streamgage on McElmo Creek (site 1), that represents outflow from the basin, indicates a decrease in salinity load by 39,800 tons from water year 1978 through water year 2006, which is an average decrease of 1,370 tons per year for the 29-year period. Annual-load calculations for a streamgage on Mud Creek (site 6), that represents outflow from a tributary basin, indicate a decrease of 7,300 tons from water year 1982 through water year 2006, which is an average decrease of 292 tons per year for the 25-year period. The streamgage Dolores River at Dolores, CO (site 17) was chosen to represent a background site that is not affected by the Dolores Project. Annual load calculations for site 17 estimated a decrease of about 8,600 tons from water year 1978 through water year 2006, which is an average decrease of 297 tons per year for the 29-year period. The trend in salinity load at site 17 was considered to be representative of a natural trend in the region. Typically, salinity concentrations at outflow sites decreased from the pre-Dolores Project period (water years 1978—1984) to the post-Dolores Project period (water years 2000—2006). The median salinity concentration for site 1 (main basin outflow) decreased from 2,210 milligrams per liter per day in the preperiod to 2,110 milligrams per liter per day in the postperiod. The median salinity concentration for site 6 (tributary outflow) increased from 3,370 milligrams per liter per day in the preperiod to 3,710 milligrams per liter per day in the postperiod. Salinity concentrations typically increased at inflow sites from the preperiod to the postperiod. Salinity concentrations increased from 178 milligrams per liter per day during the preperiod at Main Canal #1 (site 16) to 227 milligrams per liter per day during the postperiod at the Dolores Tunnel Outlet near Dolores, CO (site 15). Calculation of the historical flow regime in McElmo Creek was done using a water-budget analysis of the basin. During water years 2000—2006, an estimated 845,000 acre-feet of water was consumed by crops and did not return to the creek as streamflow. The remaining 76,000 acre-feet, or 10,900 acre-feet per year for the 7-year postperiod, was assumed to represent a historical flow condition. The historical flow of 10,900 acre-feet per year is equivalent to 15.1 cubic feet per second. Average total dissolved solids concentrations for water in each type of sedimentary rock were used to estimate natural salinity loads. Most surface-water sites used to fit the criteria needed to achieve a natural TDS concentration were springs. An average spring TDS value for sandstones geology in the basin was 350 milligrams per liter, and the average value for Mancos Shale geology was 4,000 milligrams per liter. The natural salinity loads in McElmo Creek were estimated to be 29,100 tons per year, which is 43 percent of the salinity load that was calculated for the postperiod.

Colorado↗

Hydrogeology of the surficial aquifer system in Southwest Florida

Restoration and management of the south Florida ecosystem will be guided by hydrologic models that simulate water flowing through the wetlands and shallow subsurface aquifers beneath them. The restoration of the ecosystem is, essentially, the restoration of the natural hydrologic system. As surface water is re-diverted from manmade canals to its more natural state as overland flow, several changes are predicted to occur. First, because water flowing over land moves more slowly than in canals, overland flow should remain in the wetland ecosystem for a longer period each year. Second, as the flowing water spreads out over the wetlands, recharge to the shallow aquifers should increase as more of that water infiltrates into the ground. The U.S. Corps of Engineers and the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) will use hydrologic models to anticipate the consequences of these proposed restoration plans. This research program is designed to provide essential subsurface data to improve hydrologic models for land and water managers in southwest Florida where subsurface information is lacking. Obtaining hydrogeological data requires core drilling, corehole testing, and rock and sediment analysis.

Florida↗

A brief investigation of the surface-water hydrology of Yemen Arab Republic

Yemen, near the southwest tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a mountainous country bordered by a desert on the east and a coastal plain on the west. Rainfall is low and seasonal; consequently, most streams (wadis) are ephemeral. The natural flow regimens of many of the smaller wadis are modified by terracing for agriculture. The only streamflow data available in Yemen are short records on four large wadis. A brief field investigation and application of reconnaissance techniques are the bases for the largely qualitative description of the hydrology, and for the proposal to collect streamflow data needed for orderly development of the expanding economy. (Woodard-USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Evaluation of the streamflow-gaging network of Alaska in providing regional streamflow information

In 1906, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began operating a network of streamflow-gaging stations in Alaska. The primary purpose of the streamflow- gaging network has been to provide peak flow, average flow, and low-flow characteristics to a variety of users. In 1993, the USGS began a study to evaluate the current network of 78 stations. The objectives of this study were to determine the adequacy of the existing network in predicting selected regional flow characteristics and to determine if providing additional streamflow-gaging stations could improve the network's ability to predict these characteristics. Alaska was divided into six distinct hydrologic regions: Arctic, Northwest, Southcentral, Southeast, Southwest, and Yukon. For each region, historical and current streamflow data were compiled. In Arctic, Northwest, and Southwest Alaska, insufficient data were available to develop regional regression equations. In these areas, proposed locations of streamflow-gaging stations were selected by using clustering techniques to define similar areas within a region and by spatial visual analysis using the precipitation, physiographic, and hydrologic unit maps of Alaska. Sufficient data existed in Southcentral and Southeast Alaska to use generalized least squares (GLS) procedures to develop regional regression equations to estimate the 50-year peak flow, annual average flow, and a low-flow statistic. GLS procedures were also used for Yukon Alaska but the results should be used with caution because the data do not have an adequate spatial distribution. Network analysis procedures were used for the Southcentral, Southeast, and Yukon regions. Network analysis indicates the reduction in the sampling error of the regional regression equation that can be obtained given different scenarios. For Alaska, a 10-year planning period was used. One scenario showed the results of continuing the current network with no additional gaging stations and another scenario showed the results of adding gaging stations to the network. With the exception of the annual average discharge equation for Southeast Alaska, by adding gaging stations in all three regions, the sampling error was reduced to a greater extent than by not adding gaging stations. The proposed streamflow-gaging network for Alaska consists of 308 gaging stations, of which 32 are designated as index stations. If the proposed network can not be implemented in its entirety, then a lesser cost alternative would be to establish the index stations and to implement the network for a particular region.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Satellite time series analysis to quantify changing climax ciénegas using a state and transition model approach

Ciénegas are rare wetlands in arid landscapes of the North American Southwest, historically providing critical ecological and hydrological functions but increasingly threatened by changing climate and land use pressures. This study quantifies changes in ciénega condition and floodplain dynamics using a state-and-transition model (STM) informed by expert knowledge and remote sensing. Key factors include woody plant encroachment, water availability, and soil aggradation. We mapped 31 ciénegas with high-resolution imagery and analyzed Landsat data (1985–2023) to assess vegetation health and moisture using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII). Results show substantial interannual variability in phenology, water stress, and soil moisture, with regional drying and elevation strongly influencing ciénega resilience. We classified ciénegas into three functional states—healthy, desiccated, and dormant—and mapped their 2023 condition. Trend analyses indicate most ciénegas exhibit greening despite drought, though localized variability underscores the need for site-specific management. None are in a stable climax (reference) state; rather, they transition among states in response to external drivers. Increasing woody plant cover and surface drying, likely linked to declining regional water tables, favor deep-rooted species over wetland grasses—a pattern mirrored in adjacent control plots. Spatially explicit analysis revealed intra-ciénega variability often masked by aggregated data, highlighting the importance of high-resolution monitoring. Seasonal and long-term trends provide context for understanding ciénega dynamics, including degradation and restoration pathways. This study emphasizes the importance of groundwater conservation and demonstrates how remote sensing supports long-term monitoring. The STM framework offers a practical tool for adaptive management to sustain freshwater resources in arid environments.

Arizona, New Mexico↗