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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS1985

In-situ fluid-pressure measurements for earthquake prediction: An example from a deep well at Hi Vista, California

Short-term earthquake prediction requires sensitive instruments for measuring the small anomalous changes in stress and strain that precede earthquakes. Instruments installed at or near the surface have proven too noisy for measuring anomalies of the size expected to occur, and it is now recognized that even to have the possibility of a reliable earthquake-prediction system will require instruments installed in drill holes at depths sufficient to reduce the background noise to a level below that of the expected premonitory signals. We are conducting experiments to determine the maximum signal-to-noise improvement that can be obtained in drill holes. In a 592 m well in the Mojave Desert near Hi Vista, California, we measured water-level changes with amplitudes greater than 10 cm, induced by earth tides. By removing the effects of barometric pressure and the stress related to earth tides, we have achieved a sensitivity to volumetric strain rates of 10-9 to 10-10 per day. Further improvement may be possible, and it appears that a successful earthquake-prediction capability may be achieved with an array of instruments installed in drill holes at depths of about 1 km, assuming that the premonitory strain signals are, in fact, present. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1985

Hydrologic changes associated with the October 28, 1983, Idaho earthquake

Significant hydrologic changes were observed after the magnitude 7.3 earthquake that occurred on October 28, 1983, in central Idaho. Groundwater levels rose by as much as 3 meters near the epicenter. Discharge in many streams and springs increased, in some instances by more than 100%. One warm spring ceased flowing for several days; the flow then resumed and peaked at about nine times its original rate. Available data show no significant changes in water quality following the earthquake. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1985

Impulsive radon emanation on a creeping segment of the San Andreas fault, California

Radon emanation was continuously monitored for several months at two locations along a creeping segment of the San Andreas fault in central California. The recorded emanations showed several impulsive increases that lasted as much as five hours with amplitudes considerably larger than meteorologically induced diurnal variations. Some of the radon increases were accompanied or followed by earthquakes or fault-creep events. They were possibly the result of some sudden outbursts of relatively radon-rich ground gas, sometimes triggered by crustal deformation or vibration. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

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USGS1989

Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone, Pacific Northwest

Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes of Ms???7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakes Mw<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (Mw 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismic P-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

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USGS1986

The effects of sliding velocity on the frictional and physical properties of heated fault gouge

The frictional properties of a crushed granite gouge and of gouges rich in montmorillonite, illite, and serpentine minerals have been investigated at temperatures as high as 600??C, confining pressures as high as 2.5 kbar, a pore pressure of 30 bar, and sliding velocities of 4.8 and 4.8??10-2 ??m/sec. The gouges showed nearly identical strength behaviors at the two sliding velocities; all four gouges, however, showed a greater tendency to stick-slip movement and somewhat higher stress drops in the experiments at 4.8??10-2 ??m/sec. Varying the sliding velocity also had an effect on the mineral assemblages and deformation textures developed in the heated gouges. The principal mineralogical difference was that at 400??C and 1 kbar confining pressure a serpentine breakdown reaction occurred in the experiments at 4.8??10-2 ??m/sec but not in those at 4.8 ??m/sec. The textures developed in the gouge layers were in part functions of the gouge type and the temperature, but changes in the sliding velocity affected, among other features, the degree of mineral deformation and the orientation of some fractures. ?? 1986 Birkha??user Verlag.

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USGS1986

Seismic measurements of the internal properties of fault zones

The internal properties within and adjacent to fault zones are reviewed, principally on the basis of laboratory, borehole, and seismic refraction and reflection data. The deformation of rocks by faulting ranges from intragrain microcracking to severe alteration. Saturated microcracked and mildly fractured rocks do not exhibit a significant reduction in velocity, but, from borehole measurements, densely fractured rocks do show significantly reduced velocities, the amount of reduction generally proportional to the fracture density. Highly fractured rock and thick fault gouge along the creeping portion of the San Andreas fault are evidenced by a pronounced seismic low-velocity zone (LVZ), which is either very thin or absent along locked portions of the fault. Thus there is a correlation between fault slip behavior and seismic velocity structure within the fault zone; high pore pressure within the pronounced LVZ may be conductive to fault creep. Deep seismic reflection data indicate that crustal faults sometimes extend through the entire crust. Models of these data and geologic evidence are consistent with a composition of deep faults consisting of highly foliated, seismically anisotropic mylonites.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1994

Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region

The high likelihood of a gap-filling thrust earthquake in the Alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods: analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time-to-failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data. Recent (May 1993) earthquake activity in the Shumagin Islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release, indicating that this segment, along with the Alaska Peninsula segment, is approaching failure. Based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release, we project the occurrence of one or more M???7.3 earthquakes in the Shumagin-Alaska Peninsula region during 1994-1996. Different segments of the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes, some showing acceleration of seismic release (type "A" zones), while others show deceleration (type "D" zones). The largest Alaska-Aleutian earthquakes-in 1957, 1964, and 1965-originated in zones that exhibit type D behavior. Type A zones currently showing accelerating release are the Shumagin, Alaska Peninsula, Delarof, and Kommandorski segments. Time-to-failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years. ?? 1994 Birkha??user Verlag.

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USGS1994

Triaxial testing of Lopez Fault gouge at 150 MPa mean effective stress

Triaxial compression experiments were performed on samples of natural granular fault gouge from the Lopez Fault in Southern California. This material consists primarily of quartz and has a self-similar grain size distribution thought to result from natural cataclasis. The experiments were performed at a constant mean effective stress of 150 MPa, to expose the volumetric strains associated with shear failure. The failure strength is parameterized by the coefficient of internal friction ??, based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. Samples of remoulded Lopez gouge have internal friction ??=0.6??0.02. In experiments where the ends of the sample are constrained to remain axially aligned, suppressing strain localisation, the sample compacts before failure and dilates persistently after failure. In experiments where one end of the sample is free to move laterally, the strain localises to a single oblique fault at around the point of failure; some dilation occurs but does not persist. A comparison of these experiments suggests that dilation is confined to the region of shear localisation in a sample. Overconsolidated samples have slightly larger failure strengths than normally consolidated samples, and smaller axial strains are required to cause failure. A large amount of dilation occurs after failure in heavily overconsolidated samples, suggesting that dilation is occurring throughout the sample. Undisturbed samples of Lopez gouge, cored from the outcrop, have internal friction in the range ??=0.4-0.6; the upper end of this range corresponds to the value established for remoulded Lopez gouge. Some kind of natural heterogeneity within the undisturbed samples is probably responsible for their low, variable strength. In samples of simulated gouge, with a more uniform grain size, active cataclasis during axial loading leads to large amounts of compaction. Larger axial strains are required to cause failure in simulated gouge, but the failure strength is similar to that of natural Lopez gouge. Use of the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion to interpret the results from this study, and other recent studies on intact rock and granular gouge, leads to values of ?? that depend on the loading configuration and the intact or granular state of the sample. Conceptual models are advanced to account for these descrepancies. The consequences for strain-weakening of natural faults are also discussed. ?? 1994 Birkha??user Verlag.

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USGS1979

Seismic gaps and source zones of recent large earthquakes in coastal Peru

The earthquakes of central coastal Peru occur principally in two distinct zones of shallow earthquake activity that are inland of and parallel to the axis of the Peru Trench. The interface-thrust (IT) zone includes the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 17 October 1966 and 3 October 1974. The coastal-plate interior (CPI) zone includes the great earthquake of 31 May 1970, and is located about 50 km inland of and 30 km deeper than the interface thrust zone. The occurrence of a large earthquake in one zone may not relieve elastic strain in the adjoining zone, thus complicating the application of the seismic gap concept to central coastal Peru. However, recognition of two seismic zones may facilitate detection of seismicity precursory to a large earthquake in a given zone; removal of probable CPI-zone earthquakes from plots of seismicity prior to the 1974 main shock dramatically emphasizes the high seismic activity near the rupture zone of that earthquake in the five years preceding the main shock. Other conclusions on the seismicity of coastal Peru that affect the application of the seismic gap concept to this region are: (1) Aftershocks of the great earthquakes of 1966, 1970, and 1974 occurred in spatially separated clusters. Some clusters may represent distinct small source regions triggered by the main shock rather than delimiting the total extent of main-shock rupture. The uncertainty in the interpretation of aftershock clusters results in corresponding uncertainties in estimates of stress drop and estimates of the dimensions of the seismic gap that has been filled by a major earthquake. (2) Aftershocks of the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 1966 and 1974 generally did not extend seaward as far as the Peru Trench. (3) None of the three great earthquakes produced significant teleseismic activity in the following month in the source regions of the other two earthquakes. The earthquake hypocenters that form the basis of this study were relocated using station adjustments computed by the method of joint hypocenter determination. ?? 1979 Birkha??user Verlag.

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USGS1979

On Chinese earthquake history - An attempt to model an incomplete data set by point process analysis

Since the 1950s, the Academia Sinica in Peking, People's Republic of China, has carried out extensive research on the Chinese earthquake history. With a historical record dating back some 3000 years, a wealth of information on Chinese earthquakes exists. Despite this monumental undertaking by the Academia Sinica, much work is still necessary to correct the existing earthquake data for historical changes in population, customs, modes of communication, and dynasties. In this paper we report on the status of our investigation of Chinese earthquake history and present some preliminary results. By applying point process analysis of earthquakes in 'Central China', we found suggestions of (1) lower earthquake activity at intervals of about 175 years and 375 years, and (2) higher earthquake activity at an interval of about 300 years.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1993

Radon anomalies on three kinds of faults in California

Radon emanation is known to be anomalously high along active faults in many parts of the world. We tested this relationship in California during July and early August 1992, using a portable radonmeter to conduct soil-air radon surveys at 5 sites across three kinds of faults: Creeping, locked, and freshly broken. Along a 350-m long survey line across a creeping segment of the San Andreas fault at Nyland Ranch in San Juan Bautista, we found anomalous radon concentrations not in the creep zone itself as determined by a creepmeter, but on the adjacent sides, 10 and 30 meters from the center line of the fault. The anomalous values were 5 times higher than the background values measured farther away from the fault. A similar radon anomaly was observed along a 420-m long survey line across a creeping segment of the Calaveras fault near 7th Street in Hollister. There, the anomalous values were about 6 to 11 times the background values and about 40 and 50 m from the center line of the fault. The double-peaked featire of the anomalies may be indicative of a relatively low gas permeability of the fault-gouge materials in the creeping zones and high permeability of fractured rocks in the adjacent shear zones. Along a 144-m survey line across the currently locked segment of the San Andreas fault at the Earthquake Trail near Olema, the radon concentration was indeed anomalously high in the fault zone, by a factor of two above background values. However, the maximum values (3 to 6 times background) again were recorded about 10 meters from the center line. Three weeks after the magnitude 7.5 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992, we conducted a survey along a 300-m line across the earthquake fault alongside Encantado Road in the epicenter area. The radon values measured at the two main fault breaks were an order of magnitude higher than the background values. A similar result was found along a 420-m line alongside Reche Road about 1.7 km south of Encantado Road. ?? 1993 Birkha??user Verlag.

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USGS1985

Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California

The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes since a.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was the M=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1978

Friction of rocks

Experimental results in the published literature show that at low normal stress the shear stress required to slide one rock over another varies widely between experiments. This is because at low stress rock friction is strongly dependent on surface roughness. At high normal stress that effect is diminished and the friction is nearly independent of rock type. If the sliding surfaces are separated by gouge composed of Montmorillonite or vermiculite the friction can be very low. ?? 1978 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1978

Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation based on data from laboratory experiments

Locations and velocities were calculated for microseisms occurring in samples of rock subjected to triaxial loading and injection of pore fluid. This was accomplished by analyzing arrival times of acoustic emission using an automatic first arrival picker. Apparent velocity anomalies were observed prior to both failure of intact samples and violent slip in samples containing saw cuts. Further analysis revealed that these fluctuations in calculated velocity were not due to changes in the true seismie velocity. Instead, variations in calculated velocity are shown to be related to sampling errors in picking first arrivals. The systematic picking of late first arrivals for small magnitude events was found to be a persistent bias resulting in low calculated velocities. This has encouraged the reexamination of earthquake records to determine how important sampling biases are in contributing to reported velocity anomalies. ?? 1978 Birkha??user Verlag.

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USGS1978

Time-dependent friction and the mechanics of stick-slip

Time-dependent increase of static friction is characteristic of rock friction undera variety of experimental circumstances. Data presented here show an analogous velocity-dependent effect. A theor of friction is proposed that establishes a common basis for static and sliding friction. Creep at points of contact causes increases in friction that are proportional to the logarithm of the time that the population of points of contact exist. For static friction that time is the time of stationary contact. For sliding friction the time of contact is determined by the critical displacement required to change the population of contacts and the slip velocity. An analysis of a one-dimensional spring and slider system shows that experimental observations establishing the transition from stable sliding to stick-slip to be a function of normal stress, stiffness and surface finish are a consequence of time-dependent friction. ?? 1978 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1989

An introduction to quiet daily geomagnetic fields

On days that are quiet with respect to solar-terrestrial activity phenomena, the geomagnetic field has variations, tens of gamma in size, with major spectral components at about 24, 12, 8, and 6 hr in period. These quiet daily field variations are primarily due to the dynamo currents flowing in the E region of the earth's ionosphere, are driven by the global thermotidal wind systems, and are dependent upon the local tensor conductivity and main geomagnetic field vector. The highlights of the behavior and interpretation of these quiet field changes, from their discovery in 1634 until the present, are discussed as an introduction to the special journal issue on Quiet Daily Geomagnetic Fields. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1976

A magnetic method for determining the geometry of hydraulic fractures

We propose a method that may be used to determine the spatial orientation of the fracture plane developed during hydraulic fracture. In the method, magnetic particles are injected into the crack with the fracturing fluid so as to generate a sheet of magnetized material. Since the magnetization of a body with extreme dimension ratios, such as a crack, exceeds that of an equidimensional body and since this magnetization is sensitive both to orientation and geometry, this could be used to obtain information about the crack. By measuring the vertical and horizontal components of the magnetic field and field gradients at the earth's surface surrounding the injection well with superconducting magnetometers having 10-4 gamma sensitivity and also by measuring field direction within the well itself, it should be possible to calculate the orientation and perhaps infer the approximate geometry of the fracture surface. Experiments on electric field potential operated in conjunction with this experiment could further constrain estimates of shape and orientation. ?? 1976 Birkha??user Verlag.

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