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USGS1994

Coal resources, production, and quality in the Eastern kentucky coal field: Perspectives on the future of steam coal production

The Eastern Kentucky coal field, along with adjacent portions of Virginia and southern West Virginia, is part of the greatest production concentration of high-heating-value, low-sulfur coal in the United States, accounting for over 27% of the 1993 U.S. production of coal of all ranks. Eastern Kentucky's production is spread among many coal beds but is particularly concentrated in a limited number of highquality coals, notably the Pond Creek coal bed and its correlatives, and the Fire Clay coal bed and its correlatives. Both coals are relatively low ash and low sulfur through the areas of the heaviest concentration of mining activity. We discuss production trends, resources, and the quality of in-place and clean coal for those and other major coals in the region. ?? 1994 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1995

Annotated bibliography of methodology for assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources

An annotated bibliography of methodology of assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources is presented as a useful reference for those engaged in resource assessment. The articles that are included deal only with quantitative assessment of undiscovered or inferred resources. the articles in this bibliography are classified largely according to the major assessment method that was applied in each situation. Major assessment methods include areal and volumetric yield methods, field size distributions, historical extrapolation, deposit modeling, organic geochemical mass balance methods, and direct expert assessment. Other categories include mathematical tools, reserve growth/confirmation, quantitative characterization of undiscovered resources, and general topics. For the purpose of future updates, we solicit contributions of articles that may have been missed in the preparation of this bibliography. ?? 1995 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1993

Phosphate rock demand into the next century: Impact on wolld food supply

A vital and indisputable link exists between phosphate rock and world food supply. Phosphate rock is the source of phosphorus used to make phosphatic fertilizers, essential for growing the food needed by humans in the world today and in the future. We modeled the depletion of the known reserves and reserve base (which includes reserves) of phosphate rock based on various scenarios for increasing population and future demand for phosphate. Using these scenarios, the presently known reserves will be depleted within about 50 years, and the remainder of the reserve base will be depleted within the next 100 years. For this model, we used rates of growth of demand for phosphate rock of between 1 and 1.7 percent annually. We also examined demand rates that decrease over time toward demand stasis. Growthrate scenarios that stabilize demand at the year 2100 are little different from unconstrained growth. Demand stabilization by 2025 extends the reserve base by only about 50 years. Additional considerations could affect these depletion scenarios, causing them to be substantially too high or too low. Nonetheless, the incluctable conclusion in a world of continuing phosphate demand is that society, to extend phosphate rock reserves and reserve base beyond the approximate 100 year depletion date, must find additional reserves and/ or reduce the rate of growth of phosphate demand in the future. Society must: 91) increase the efficiency of use of known resources of easily minable phosphate rock; (2) discover new, economically-minable resources; or (3) develop the technology to economically mine the vast but currently uneconomic resources of phosphate rock that exist in the world. Otherwise, the future availability of present-cost phosphate, and the cost or availability of world food will be compromised, perhaps substantially. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1992

Probabilistic methodology for estimation of undiscovered petroleum resources in play analysis of the United States

A geostochastic system called FASPF was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for their 1989 assessment of undiscovered petroleum resources in the United States. FASPF is a fast appraisal system for petroleum play analysis using a field-size geological model and an analytic probabilistic methodology. The geological model is a particular type of probability model whereby the volumes of oil and gas accumulations are modeled as statistical distributions in the form of probability histograms, and the risk structure is bilevel (play and accumulation) in terms of conditional probability. The probabilistic methodology is an analytic method derived from probability theory rather than Monte Carlo simulation. The resource estimates of crude oil and natural gas are calculated and expressed in terms of probability distributions. The probabilistic methodology developed by the author is explained. The analytic system resulted in a probabilistic methodology for play analysis, subplay analysis, economic analysis, and aggregation analysis. Subplay analysis included the estimation of petroleum resources on non-Federal offshore areas. Economic analysis involved the truncation of the field size with a minimum economic cutoff value. Aggregation analysis was needed to aggregate individual play and subplay estimates of oil and gas, respectively, at the provincial, regional, and national levels. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1993

Descriptive models of major uranium deposits in China - Some results of the Workshop on Uranium Resource Assessment sponsored by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria, in cooperation with China National Nuclear Corporation, Beijing, and the U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, and Reston, Virginia

Four major types of uranium deposits occur in China: granite, volcanic, sandstone, and carbonaceous-siliceous-pelitic rock. These types are major sources of uranium in many parts of the world and account for about 95 percent of Chinese production. Descriptive models for each of these types record the diagnostic regional and local geologic features of the deposits that are important to genetic studies, exploration, and resource assessment. A fifth type of uranium deposit, metasomatite, is also modeled because of its high potential for production. These five types of uranium deposits occur irregularly in five tectonic provinces distributed from the northwest through central to southern China. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1995

The generalized 20/80 law using probabilistic fractals applied to petroleum field size

Fractal properties of the Pareto probability distribution are used to generalize "the 20/80 law." The 20/80 law is a heuristic law that has evolved over the years into the following rule of thumb for many populations: 20 percent of the population accounts for 80 percent of the total value. The general p100/q100 law in probabilistic form is defined with q as a function of p, where p is the population proportion and q is the proportion of total value. Using the Pareto distribution, the p100/q100 law in fractal form is derived with the parameter q being a fractal, where q unexpectedly possesses the scale invariance property. The 20/80 law is a special case of the p100/q100 law in fractal form. The p100/q100 law in fractal form is applied to petroleum fieldsize data to obtain p and q such that p100% of the oil fields greater than any specified scale or size in a geologic play account for q100% of the total oil of the fields. The theoretical percentages of total resources of oil using the fractal q are extremely close to the empirical percentages from the data using the statistic q. Also, the empirical scale invariance property of the statistic q for the petroleum fieldsize data is in excellent agreement with the theoretical scale invariance property of the fractal q. ?? 1995 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1993

Summary of the mineral- and energy-resource endowment, BLM roswell resource area, east-central New Mexico

In this summary of two comprehensive resource reports produced by the U.S. Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, we discuss the mineral- and energyresource endowment of the 14-millon-acre Roswell Resource Area, New Mexico, managed by the Bureau of Land Management. The Bureau and Survey reports result from separate studies that are compilations of published and unpublished data and integrate new findings on the geology, geochemistry, geophysics, mineral, industrial, and energy commodities, and resources for the seven-county area. The reports have been used by the Bureau of Land Management in preparation of the Roswell Resource Area Resource Management Plan, and will have future use in nationwide mineral- and energy-resource inventories and assessments, as reference and training documents, and as public-information tools. In the Roswell Resource Area, many metals, industrial mineral commodities, and energy resources are being, or have been, produced or prospected. These include metals and high-technology materials, such as copper, gold, silver, thorium, uranium and/or vanadium, rare-earth element minerals, iron, manganese, tungsten, lead, zinc, and molybdenum; industrial mineral resources, including barite, limestone/dolomite, caliche, clay, fluorspar, gypsum, scoria, aggregate, and sand and gravel; and fuels and associated resources, such as oil, gas, tar sand and heavy oil, coal, and gases associated with hydrocarbons. Other commodities that have yet to be identified in economic concentrations include potash, halite, polyhalite, anhydrite, sulfur, feldspar, building stone and decorative rock, brines, various gases associated with oil and gas exploration, and carbon dioxide. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1993

Is there a metric for mineral deposit occurrence probabilities?

Traditionally, mineral resource assessments have been used to estimate the physical inventory of critical and strategic mineral commodities that occur in pieces of land and to assess the consequences of supply disruptions of these commodities. More recently, these assessments have been used to estimate the undiscovered mineral wealth in such pieces of land to assess the opportunity cost of using the land for purposes other than mineral production. The field of mineral resource assessment is an interdisciplinary field that draws elements from the disciplines of geology, economic geology (descriptive models), statistics and management science (grade and tonnage models), mineral economics, and operations research (computer simulation models). The purpose of this study is to assert that an occurrenceprobability metric exists that is useful in "filling out" an assessment both for areas in which only a trivial probability exists that a new mining district could be present and for areas where nontrivial probabilities exist for such districts. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1995

Economics of mining law

Modern mining law, by facilitating socially and environmentally acceptable exploration, development, and production of mineral materials, helps secure the benefits of mineral production while minimizing environmental harm and accounting for increasing land-use competition. Mining investments are sunk costs, irreversibly tied to a particular mineral site, and require many years to recoup. Providing security of tenure is the most critical element of a practical mining law. Governments owning mineral rights have a conflict of interest between their roles as a profit-maximizing landowner and as a guardian of public welfare. As a monopoly supplier, governments have considerable power to manipulate mineral-rights markets. To avoid monopoly rent-seeking by governments, a competitive market for government-owned mineral rights must be created by artifice. What mining firms will pay for mineral rights depends on expected exploration success and extraction costs. Landowners and mining firms will negotlate respective shares of anticipated differential rents, usually allowing for some form of risk sharing. Private landowners do not normally account for external benefits or costs of minerals use. Government ownership of mineral rights allows for direct accounting of social prices for mineral-bearing lands and external costs. An equitable and efficient method is to charge an appropriate reservation price for surface land use, net of the value of land after reclamation, and to recover all or part of differential rents through a flat income or resource-rent tax. The traditional royalty on gross value of production, essentially a regressive income tax, cannot recover as much rent as a flat income tax, causes arbitrary mineral-reserve sterilization, and creates a bias toward development on the extensive margin where marginal environmental costs are higher. Mitigating environmental costs and resolving land-use conflicts require local evaluation and planning. National oversight ensures that the relative global avaliability of minerals and other values are considered, and can also promote adaptive efficiency by publicizing creative local solutions, providing technical support, and funding useful research. ?? 1995 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1992

The study of the undiscovered mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands, Southeastern Alaska

The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning. Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05. The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion. Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1994

The space-time structure of oil and gas field growth in a complex depositional system

Shortly after the discovery of an oil and gas field, an initial estimate is usually made of the ultimate recovery of the field. With the passage of time, this initial estimate is almost always revised upward. The phenomenon of the growth of the expected ultimate recovery of a field, which is known as "field growth," is important to resource assessment analysts for several reasons. First, field growth is the source of a large part of future additions to the inventory of proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas in most petroliferous areas of the world. Second, field growth introduces a large negative bias in the forecast of the future rates of discovery of oil and gas fields made by discovery process models. In this study, the growth in estimated ultimate recovery of oil and gas in fields made up of sandstone reservoirs formed in a complex depositional environment (Frio strand plain exploration play) is examined. The results presented here show how the growth of oil and gas fields is tied directly to the architectural element of the shoreline processes and tectonics that caused the deposition of the individual sand bodies hosting the producible hydrocarbon. ?? 1994 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1992

Computer Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative resource estimation

The method of making quantitative assessments of mineral resources sufficiently detailed for economic analysis is outlined in three steps. The steps are (1) determination of types of deposits that may be present in an area, (2) estimation of the numbers of deposits of the permissible deposit types, and (3) combination by Monte Carlo simulation of the estimated numbers of deposits with the historical grades and tonnages of these deposits to produce a probability distribution of the quantities of contained metal. Two examples of the estimation of the number of deposits (step 2) are given. The first example is for mercury deposits in southwestern Alaska and the second is for lode tin deposits in the Seward Peninsula. The flow of the Monte Carlo simulation program is presented with particular attention to the dependencies between grades and tonnages of deposits and between grades of different metals in the same deposit. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1993

Basic concepts in three-part quantitative assessments of undiscovered mineral resources

Since 1975, mineral resource assessments have been made for over 27 areas covering 5??106 km2 at various scales using what is now called the three-part form of quantitative assessment. In these assessments, (1) areas are delineated according to the types of deposits permitted by the geology,(2) the amount of metal and some ore characteristics are estimated using grade and tonnage models, and (3) the number of undiscovered deposits of each type is estimated. Permissive boundaries are drawn for one or more deposit types such that the probability of a deposit lying outside the boundary is negligible, that is, less than 1 in 100,000 to 1,000,000. Grade and tonnage models combined with estimates of the number of deposits are the fundamental means of translating geologists' resource assessments into a language that economists can use. Estimates of the number of deposits explicitly represent the probability (or degree of belief) that some fixed but unknown number of undiscovered deposits exist in the delineated tracts. Estimates are by deposit type and must be consistent with the grade and tonnage model. Other guidelines for these estimates include (1) frequency of deposits from well-explored areas, (2) local deposit extrapolations, (3) counting and assigning probabilities to anomalies and occurrences, (4) process constraints, (5) relative frequencies of related deposit types, and (6) area spatial limits. In most cases, estimates are made subjectively, as they are in meteorology, gambling, and geologic interpretations. In three-part assessments, the estimates are internally consistent because delineated tracts are consistent with descriptive models, grade and tonnage models are consistent with descriptive models, as well as with known deposits in the area, and estimates of number of deposits are consistent with grade and tonnage models. All available information is used in the assessment, and uncertainty is explicitly represented. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1994

Modeling surficial sand and gravel deposits

Mineral-deposit models are an integral part of quantitative mineral-resource assessment. As the focus of mineral-deposit modeling has moved from metals to industrial minerals, procedure has been modified and may be sufficient to model surficial sand and gravel deposits. Sand and gravel models are needed to assess resource-supply analyses for planning future development and renewal of infrastructure. Successful modeling of sand and gravel deposits must address (1) deposit volumes and geometries, (2) sizes of fragments within the deposits, (3) physical characteristics of the material, and (4) chemical composition and chemical reactivity of the material. Several models of sand and gravel volumes and geometries have been prepared and suggest the following: Sand and gravel deposits in alluvial fans have a median volume of 35 million m3. Deposits in all other geologic settings have a median volume of 5.4 million m3, a median area of 120 ha, and a median thickness of 4 m. The area of a sand and gravel deposit can be predicted from volume using a regression model (log [area (ha)] =1.47+0.79 log [volume (million m3)]). In similar fashion, the volume of a sand and gravel deposit can be predicted from area using the regression (log [volume (million m3)]=-1.45+1.07 log [area (ha)]). Classifying deposits by fragment size can be done using models of the percentage of sand, gravel, and silt within deposits. A classification scheme based on fragment size is sufficiently general to be applied anywhere. ?? 1994 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1992

Quantitative assessment of mineral resources with an application to petroleum geology

The probability of occurrence of natural resources, such as petroleum deposits, can be assessed by a combination of multivariate statistical and geostatistical techniques. The area of study is partitioned into regions that are as homogeneous as possible internally while simultaneously as distinct as possible. Fisher's discriminant criterion is used to select geological variables that best distinguish productive from nonproductive localities, based on a sample of previously drilled exploratory wells. On the basis of these geological variables, each wildcat well is assigned to the production class (dry or producer in the two-class case) for which the Mahalanobis' distance from the observation to the class centroid is a minimum. Universal kriging is used to interpolate values of the Mahalanobis' distances to all locations not yet drilled. The probability that an undrilled locality belongs to the productive class can be found, using the kriging estimation variances to assess the probability of misclassification. Finally, Bayes' relationship can be used to determine the probability that an undrilled location will be a discovery, regardless of the production class in which it is placed. The method is illustrated with a study of oil prospects in the Lansing/Kansas City interval of western Kansas, using geological variables derived from well logs. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1993

Estimation of undiscovered deposits in quantitative mineral resource assessments-examples from Venezuela and Puerto Rico

Quantitative mineral resource assessments used by the United States Geological Survey are based on deposit models. These assessments consist of three parts: (1) selecting appropriate deposit models and delineating on maps areas permissive for each type of deposit; (2) constructing a grade-tonnage model for each deposit model; and (3) estimating the number of undiscovered deposits of each type. In this article, I focus on the estimation of undiscovered deposits using two methods: the deposit density method and the target counting method. In the deposit density method, estimates are made by analogy with well-explored areas that are geologically similar to the study area and that contain a known density of deposits per unit area. The deposit density method is useful for regions where there is little or no data. This method was used to estimate undiscovered low-sulfide gold-quartz vein deposits in Venezuela. Estimates can also be made by counting targets such as mineral occurrences, geophysical or geochemical anomalies, or exploration "plays" and by assigning to each target a probability that it represents an undiscovered deposit that is a member of the grade-tonnage distribution. This method is useful in areas where detailed geological, geophysical, geochemical, and mineral occurrence data exist. Using this method, porphyry copper-gold deposits were estimated in Puerto Rico. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1993

The deposit size frequency method for estimating undiscovered uranium deposits

The deposit size frequency (DSF) method has been developed as a generalization of the method that was used in the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) program to estimate the uranium endowment of the United States. The DSF method overcomes difficulties encountered during the NURE program when geologists were asked to provide subjective estimates of (1) the endowed fraction of an area judged favorable (factor F) for the occurrence of undiscovered uranium deposits and (2) the tons of endowed rock per unit area (factor T) within the endowed fraction of the favorable area. Because the magnitudes of factors F and T were unfamiliar to nearly all of the geologists, most geologists responded by estimating the number of undiscovered deposits likely to occur within the favorable area and the average size of these deposits. The DSF method combines factors F and T into a single factor (F??T) that represents the tons of endowed rock per unit area of the undiscovered deposits within the favorable area. Factor F??T, provided by the geologist, is the estimated number of undiscovered deposits per unit area in each of a number of specified deposit-size classes. The number of deposit-size classes and the size interval of each class are based on the data collected from the deposits in known (control) areas. The DSF method affords greater latitude in making subjective estimates than the NURE method and emphasizes more of the everyday experience of exploration geologists. Using the DSF method, new assessments have been made for the "young, organic-rich" surficial uranium deposits in Washington and idaho and for the solution-collapse breccia pipe uranium deposits in the Grand Canyon region in Arizona and adjacent Utah. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

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USGS1992

Quantitative assessment of future development of cooper/silver resources in the Kootenai National Forest, Idaho/Montana: Part I-Estimation of the copper and silver endowments

Faced with an ever-increasing diversity of demand for the use of public lands, managers and planners are turning more often to a multiple-use approach to meet those demands. This approach requires the uses to be mutually compatible and to utilize the more valuable attributes or resource values of the land. Therefore, it is imperative that planners be provided with all available information on attribute and resource values in a timely fashion and in a format that facilitates a comparative evaluation. The Kootenai National Forest administration enlisted the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Bureau of Mines to perform a quantitative assessment of future copper/silver production potential within the forest from sediment-hosted copper deposits in the Revett Formation that are similar to those being mined at the Troy Mine near Spar Lake. The U.S. Geological Survey employed a quantitative assessment technique that compared the favorable host terrane in the Kootenai area with worldwide examples of known sediment-hosted copper deposits. The assessment produced probabilistic estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits that may be present in the area and of the copper and silver endowment that might be contained in them. Results of the assessment suggest that the copper/silver deposit potential is highest in the southwestern one-third of the forest. In this area there is an estimated 50 percent probability of at least 50 additional deposits occurring mostly within approximately 260,000 acres where the Revett Formation is thought to be present in the subsurface at depths of less than 1,500 meters. A Monte Carlo type simulation using data on the grade and tonnage characteristics of other known silver-rich, sediment-hosted copper deposits predicts a 50 percent probability that these undiscovered deposits will contain at least 19 million tonnes of copper and 100,000 tonnes of silver. Combined with endowments estimated for identified, but not thoroughly explored deposits, and deposits that might also occur in the remaining area of the forest, the endowment potential increases to 23 million tonnes of copper and 190,000 tonnes of silver. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

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