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USGS2008

Forecasting California's earthquakes— What can we expect in the next 30 years?

In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%?such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the State. Building codes, earthquake insurance, and emergency planning will be affected by these new results, which highlight the urgency to prepare now for the powerful quakes that are inevitable in California?s future.

California↗

USGS2022

The centenary of IAVCEI 1919–2019 and beyond: The people, places, and things of volcano geodesy

Over the first century of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI), volcano geodesy grew from roots as an accidental and incidental system of measurements to an important method for monitoring volcanic activity and forecasting eruptions. The first practitioners in volcano geodesy were experts in other disciplines, and it was not until the latter half of the twentieth century that specialists in the field emerged—scientists who developed new methods, measured geodetic change at volcanoes, and quantitatively interpreted the results in terms of magmatic processes. Much of the early work in the field was restricted to a few volcanoes and involved techniques that had been adapted from other applications; relatively few methods were developed specifically for use on volcanoes. These volcanoes, however, provided the natural laboratories needed to advance the field. By the start of the twenty-first century, geodetic studies, especially using space-based techniques, contributed to the recognition of deformation and gravity change at hundreds of volcanoes on Earth. In coming years, IAVCEI researchers will focus on comprehensive exploitation of the growing volumes of geodetic data to better model, forecast, and track activity at volcanoes worldwide. Meanwhile, the field needs to become more diverse, better representing people who live in the shadows of volcanoes around the globe.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2024

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science plan and experimental design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments ( Eoi 400 , E 280 ) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations.

Global and Planeatary Change↗

USGS2010

Prospects for quantifying structure, floristic composition and species richness of tropical forests

Airborne spectral and light detection and ranging (lidar) sensors have been used to quantify biophysical characteristics of tropical forests. Lidar sensors have provided high-resolution data on forest height, canopy topography, volume, and gap size; and provided estimates on number of strata in a forest, successional status of forests, and above-ground biomass. Spectral sensors have provided data on vegetation types, foliar biochemistry content of forest canopies, tree and canopy phenology, and spectral signatures for selected tree species. A number of advances are theoretically possible with individual and combined spectral and lidar sensors for the study of forest structure, floristic composition and species richness. Delineating individual canopies of over-storey trees with small footprint lidar and discrimination of tree architectural types with waveform distributions is possible and would provide scientists with a new method to study tropical forest structure. Combined spectral and lidar data can be used to identify selected tree species and identify the successional status of tropical forest fragments in order to rank forest patches by levels of species richness. It should be possible in the near future to quantify selected patterns of tropical forests at a higher resolution than can currently be undertaken in the field or from space.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2018

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Gas Hydrates Project

The Gas Hydrates Project at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) focuses on the study of methane hydrates in natural environments. The project is a collaboration between the USGS Energy Resources and the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Programs and works closely with other U.S. Federal agencies, some State governments, outside research organizations, and international partners. The USGS studies the formation and distribution of gas hydrates in nature, the potential of hydrates as an energy resource, and the interaction between methane hydrates and the environment. The USGS Gas Hydrates Project carries out field programs and participates in drilling expeditions to study marine and terrestrial gas hydrates. USGS scientists also acquire new geophysical data and sample sediments, the water column, and the atmosphere in areas where gas hydrates occur. In addition, project personnel analyze datasets provided by partners and manage unique laboratories that supply state-of-the-art analytical capabilities to advance national and international priorities related to gas hydrates.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1997

Digital shaded-relief image of Alaska

One of the most spectacular physiographic images of the conterminous United States, and the first to have been produced digitally, is that by Thelin and Pike ( USGS I-2206, 1991 ). The image is remarkable for its crispness of detail and for the natural appearance of the artificial land surface. Our goal has been to produce a shaded-relief image of Alaska that has the same look and feel as the Thelin and Pike image. The Alaskan image could have been produced at the same scale as its lower 48 counterpart (1:3,500,000). But by insetting the Aleutian Islands into the Gulf of Alaska, we were able to print the Alaska map at a larger scale (1:2,500,000) and about the same physical size as the Thelin and Pike image. Benefits of the 1:2,500,000 scale are (1) greater resolution of topographic features and (2) ease of reference to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (1987) Alaska Map E and the statewide geologic map (Beikman, 1980), which are both 1:2,500,000 scale. Manually drawn, shaded-relief images of Alaska's land surface have long been available (for example, Department of the Interior, 1909; Raisz, 1948). The topography depicted on these early maps is mainly schematic. Maps showing topographic contours were first available for the entire State in 1953 (USGS, 1:250,000) (J.H. Wittmann, USGS, written commun., 1996). The Alaska Map E was initially released in 1954 in both planimetric (revised in 1973 and 1987) and shaded-relief versions (revised in 1973, 1987, and 1996); topography depicted on the shaded-relief version is based on the 1:250,000-scale USGS topographic maps. Alaska Map E was later modified to include hypsometric tinting by Raven Maps and Images (1989, revised 1993) as copyrighted versions. Other shaded-relief images were produced for The National Geographic Magazine (LaGorce, 1956; 1:3,000,000) or drawn by Harrison (1970; 1:7,500,000) for The National Atlas of the United States. Recently, the State of Alaska digitally produced a shaded-relief image of Alaska at 1:2,500,000 scale (Alaska Department of Natural Resources, 1994), using the 1,000-m digital elevation data set referred to below. An important difference between our image and these previous ones is the method of reproduction: like the Thelin and Pike (1991) image, our image is a composite of halftone images that yields sharp resolution and preserves contrast. Indeed, the first impression of many viewers is that the Alaskan image and the Thelin and Pike image are composites of satellite-generated photographs rather than an artificial rendering of a digital elevation model. A shaded-relief image represents landforms in a natural fashion; that is, a viewer perceives the image as a rendering of reality. Thus a shaded-relief image is intrinsically appealing, especially in areas of spectacular relief. In addition, even subtle physiographic features that reflect geologic structures or the type of bedrock are visible. To our knowledge, some of these Alaskan features have not been depicted before and so the image should provide earth scientists with a new "look" at fundamental geologic features of Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Topographic and hydrographic GIS datasets for the Afghan Geological Survey and U.S. Geological Survey 2013 mineral areas of interest

Afghanistan is endowed with a vast amount of mineral resources, and it is believed that the current economic state of the country could be greatly improved through investment in the extraction and production of these resources. In 2007, the “Preliminary Non-Fuel Resource Assessment of Afghanistan 2007” was completed by members of the U.S. Geological Survey and Afghan Geological Survey (Peters and others, 2007). The assessment delineated 20 mineralized areas for further study using a geologic-based methodology. In 2011, a follow-on data product, “Summaries and Data Packages of Important Areas for Mineral Investment and Production Opportunities of Nonfuel Minerals in Afghanistan,” was released (Peters and others, 2011). As part of this more recent work, geologic, geohydrologic, and hyperspectral studies were carried out in the areas of interest (AOIs) to assess the location and characteristics of the mineral resources. The 2011 publication included a dataset of 24 identified AOIs containing subareas, a corresponding digital elevation model (DEM), elevation contours, areal extent, and hydrography for each AOI. In 2012, project scientists identified five new AOIs and two subareas in Afghanistan. These new areas are Ahankashan, Kandahar, Parwan, North Bamyan, and South Bamyan. The two identified subareas include Obatu-Shela and Sekhab-ZamtoKalay, both located within the larger Kandahar AOI. In addition, an extended Kandahar AOI is included in the project for water resource modeling purposes. The dataset presented in this publication consists of the areal extent of the five new AOIs, two subareas, and the extended Kandahar AOI, elevation contours at 100-, 50-, and 25-meter intervals, an enhanced DEM, and a hydrographic dataset covering the extent of the new study area. The resulting raster and vector layers are intended for use by government agencies, developmental organizations, and private companies in Afghanistan to assist with mineral assessments, monitoring, management, and investment.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

From the oceans to the cloud: Opportunities and challenges for data, models, computation and workflows

Advances in ocean observations and models mean increasing flows of data. Integrating observations between disciplines over spatial scales from regional to global presents challenges. Running ocean models and managing the results is computationally demanding. The rise of cloud computing presents an opportunity to rethink traditional approaches. This includes developing shared data processing workflows utilizing common, adaptable software to handle data ingest and storage, and an associated framework to manage and execute downstream modeling. Working in the cloud presents challenges: migration of legacy technologies and processes, cloud-to-cloud interoperability, and the translation of legislative and bureaucratic requirements for “on-premises” systems to the cloud. To respond to the scientific and societal needs of a fit-for-purpose ocean observing system, and to maximize the benefits of more integrated observing, research on utilizing cloud infrastructures for sharing data and models is underway. Cloud platforms and the services/APIs they provide offer new ways for scientists to observe and predict the ocean’s state. High-performance mass storage of observational data, coupled with on-demand computing to run model simulations in close proximity to the data, tools to manage workflows, and a framework to share and collaborate, enables a more flexible and adaptable observation and prediction computing architecture. Model outputs are stored in the cloud and researchers either download subsets for their interest/area or feed them into their own simulations without leaving the cloud. Expanded storage and computing capabilities make it easier to create, analyze, and distribute products derived from long-term datasets. In this paper, we provide an introduction to cloud computing, describe current uses of the cloud for management and analysis of observational data and model results, and describe workflows for running models and streaming observational data. We discuss topics that must be considered when moving to the cloud: costs, security, and organizational limitations on cloud use. Future uses of the cloud via computational sandboxes and the practicalities and considerations of using the cloud to archive data are explored. We also consider the ways in which the human elements of ocean observations are changing – the rise of a generation of researchers whose observations are likely to be made remotely rather than hands on – and how their expectations and needs drive research towards the cloud. In conclusion, visions of a future where cloud computing is ubiquitous are discussed.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2024

Underwater flashlights: What light can tell us about water quality

Water is essential for life. The particles and dissolved chemicals found in rivers, lakes, and oceans are constantly changing with weather, seasons, and human activities. The substances found in water can be helpful or harmful to humans and other organisms. New technologies allow scientists to use waterproof computers (called sensors) to record the quality of water as it changes throughout the day or night. Many sensors use the interaction of water with light, or other energy forms, to learn about what is in it. Through observing what happens to light energy in water, scientists can reveal the sources and movements of harmful pollutants or essential nutrients for plants, animals, and bacteria. Networks containing many sensors work together to provide continuous information about the ever-changing conditions that affect all living organisms that depend on water.

Frontiers for Young Minds↗

USGS2005

Recent U.S. Geological Survey applications of Lidar

As lidar (light detection and ranging) technology matures, more applications are being explored by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists throughout the Nation, both in collaboration with other Federal agencies and alone in support of USGS natural-hazards research (Crane et al., 2004). As the technology continues to improve and evolve, USGS scientists are finding new and unique methods to use and represent high-resolution lidar data, and new ways to make these data and derived information publicly available. Different lidar sensors and configurations have offered opportunities to use high-resolution elevation data for a variety of projects across all disciplines of the USGS. The following examples are just a few of the diverse projects in the USGS where lidar data is being used.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2001

Abstracts from "Coastal Marsh Dieback in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Extent, Causes, Consequences, and Remedies

In the spring of 2000, scientists discovered a new and unprecedented loss of salt marsh vegetation in coastal Louisiana and other areas along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This dieback of salt marsh vegetation, sometimes called the brown marsh phenomenon', primarily involved the rapid browning and dieback of smooth cordgrass (Spanina alterniflora). Coastal Louisiana has already undergone huge, historical losses of coastal marsh due to both human-induced and natural factors, and the current overall rate of wetland loss (25-35 sq mi 65-91 SQ KM each year) stands to threaten Louisiana's coastal ecosystem, infrastructure, and economy. On January 11-12, 2001, individuals from Federal and State agencies, universities, and the private sector met at the conference 'Coastal Marsh Dieback in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Extent, Causes, Consequences, and Remedies' to discuss and share information shout the marsh dieback. Presentations discussed trends in the progress of dieback during the summer of 2000 and in environmental conditions occurring at field study sites, possible causes including drought and Mississippi low flow' conditions, changes in soil conditions (salinity, the bioavailability of metals, pathogens, etc.), the potential for wetland loss that could occur if above and below normality occurs and is sustained over an extended period, advanced techniques for tracking the dieback via aerial photography and remote sensing, linkages of marsh hydrology to the dieback, and mechanisms of modeling dieback and recovery. In addition, presentations were made regarding development of a web site to facilitate information sharing and progress in preparation for requests for proposals based on an emergency appropriation by the U.S. Congress. All findings tended to support the idea that the dieback constituted a continuing environmental emergency and research and natural resource management efforts should be expended accordingly.

Information and Technology Report↗

USGS2015

UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" ( http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3 ), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

California↗

USGS2008

Visualizing the ground motions of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

With advances in computational capabilities and refinement of seismic wave-propagation models in the past decade large three-dimensional simulations of earthquake ground motion have become possible. The resulting datasets from these simulations are multivariate, temporal and multi-terabyte in size. Past visual representations of results from seismic studies have been largely confined to static two-dimensional maps. New visual representations provide scientists with alternate ways of viewing and interacting with these results potentially leading to new and significant insight into the physical phenomena. Visualizations can also be used for pedagogic and general dissemination purposes. We present a workflow for visual representation of the data from a ground motion simulation of the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake. We have employed state of the art animation tools for visualization of the ground motions with a high degree of accuracy and visual realism. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Computers & Geosciences↗

USGS2008

Forewarned is forearmed! Progress in development of the U.S. National Early Detection and Rapid Response System for invasive plants: Proposal for a North American early warning system for invasive plants

Currently, a National Early Detection and Rapid Response System (EDRR) for Invasive Plants is being developed in the United States. Conceptually, the system is a coordinated framework of local, state, and national interagency groups that is designed to prevent the establishment and spread of new invasive plants through early detection and reporting of suspected new invaders, identification and vouchering of specimens by cooperating botanists, archiving of confirmed new records in regional and national plant databases, rapid assessment of confirmed new exotic species by federal and state scientists, and rapid control response to new incursions that can be eradicated. A National EDRR Framework is also being developed in Canada, through the work of the federal ministries, as well as provincial invasive species councils. With a functional EDRR communications structure in place in Canada and the U.S., a North American Early Warning System for Invasive Plants can be developed to help publicize information about new and emerging invasive plants across the continent.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Final report on the assessment of the U.S. Geological Survey’s bureauwide Research Grade Evaluation (RGE) process

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) formed the internal Research Grade Evaluation (RGE) Review Team in May 2017. The Team undertook a 2-year comprehensive review of RGE practices and policies at the USGS that included (1) the first-ever quantitative assessment of the USGS workforce evaluated under the RGE process, (2) a benchmarking meeting in March 2018 of the USGS and 11 other Federal science agencies to compare how each conducts research scientist evaluation, and (3) extensive surveys of four internal stakeholder groups. The Team recommends that the RGE review process emphasize the importance of outcomes resulting from a scientist’s efforts, rather than focusing on easily quantified outputs such as peer-reviewed papers, presentations, and posters. Thus, the Team recommends that a scientist’s work be assessed according to contributions and impacts in three areas: (1) scientific understanding, (2) the missions of the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Department of the Interior, and (3) society more broadly. The Team developed (1) new formats for the Research Scientist Record (RSR) and Development Scientist Record (DSR) that match the Office of Personnel Management’s guidelines for factor scoring and (2) new findings templates to provide more meaningful feedback to scientists.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

Data mining for water resource management part 2 - methods and approaches to solving contemporary problems

This is the second of two papers that describe how data mining can aid natural-resource managers with the difficult problem of controlling the interactions between hydrologic and man-made systems. Data mining is a new science that assists scientists in converting large databases into knowledge, and is uniquely able to leverage the large amounts of real-time, multivariate data now being collected for hydrologic systems. Part 1 gives a high-level overview of data mining, and describes several applications that have addressed major water resource issues in South Carolina. This Part 2 paper describes how various data mining methods are integrated to produce predictive models for controlling surface- and groundwater hydraulics and quality. The methods include: - signal processing to remove noise and decompose complex signals into simpler components; - time series clustering that optimally groups hundreds of signals into "classes" that behave similarly for data reduction and (or) divide-and-conquer problem solving; - classification which optimally matches new data to behavioral classes; - artificial neural networks which optimally fit multivariate data to create predictive models; - model response surface visualization that greatly aids in understanding data and physical processes; and, - decision support systems that integrate data, models, and graphics into a single package that is easy to use.

South Carolina↗

USGS2017

Building capacity in biodiversity monitoring at the global scale

Human-driven global change is causing ongoing declines in biodiversity worldwide. In order to address these declines, decision-makers need accurate assessments of the status of and pressures on biodiversity. However, these are heavily constrained by incomplete and uneven spatial, temporal and taxonomic coverage. For instance, data from regions such as Europe and North America are currently used overwhelmingly for large-scale biodiversity assessments due to lesser availability of suitable data from other, more biodiversity-rich, regions. These data-poor regions are often those experiencing the strongest threats to biodiversity, however. There is therefore an urgent need to fill the existing gaps in global biodiversity monitoring. Here, we review current knowledge on best practice in capacity building for biodiversity monitoring and provide an overview of existing means to improve biodiversity data collection considering the different types of biodiversity monitoring data. Our review comprises insights from work in Africa, South America, Polar Regions and Europe; in government-funded, volunteer and citizen-based monitoring in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. The key steps to effectively building capacity in biodiversity monitoring are: identifying monitoring questions and aims; identifying the key components, functions, and processes to monitor; identifying the most suitable monitoring methods for these elements, carrying out monitoring activities; managing the resultant data; and interpreting monitoring data. Additionally, biodiversity monitoring should use multiple approaches including extensive and intensive monitoring through volunteers and professional scientists but also harnessing new technologies. Finally, we call on the scientific community to share biodiversity monitoring data, knowledge and tools to ensure the accessibility, interoperability, and reporting of biodiversity data at a global scale.

Biodiversity and Conservation↗

USGS2022

Age of the late Holocene Bonneville landslide and submerged forest of the Columbia River Gorge, Oregon and Washington, USA, by radiocarbon dating

The late Holocene Bonneville landslide, a 15.5 km 2 rockslide-debris avalanche, descended 1000 m from the north side of the Columbia River Gorge and dammed the Columbia River where it bisects the Cascade Range of Oregon and Washington, USA. The landslide, inundation, and overtopping created persistent geomorphic, ecologic, and cultural consequences to the river corridor, reported by Indigenous narratives and explorer accounts, as well as scientists and engineers. From new dendrochronology and radiocarbon dating of three trees killed by the landslide, one entrained and buried by the landslide and two killed by rising water in the impounded Columbia River upstream of the blockage, we find (1) the two drowned trees and the buried tree died the same year, and (2) the age of tree death, and hence the landslide (determined by combined results of nine radiocarbon analyses of samples from the three trees), falls within AD 1421–1455 (3σ confidence interval). This result provides temporal context for the tremendous physical, ecological, and cultural effects of the landslide, as well as possible triggering mechanisms. The age precludes the last Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake of AD 1700 as a landslide trigger, but not earlier subduction zone or local crustal earthquakes.

Oregon, Washington↗