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The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has been given the task of collecting, managing, and disseminating the great mass of inofmation produced by scientific observations of the geophysical environment. This article describes NGDC data bases that speifically relate to natural hazards.
Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, currents, and wave field. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and surface waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is also a significant aspect of the coastal change observed during extreme storms. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project ( http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes ) strives to provide hazard information to those concerned about the Nation’s coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure morphological changes associated with Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, on September 1, 2008. Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Gustav.
Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Ike.
The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s) for tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, to inform logic‐tree weights for the update of the USGS seismic hazard model for Hawaii. GMMs are evaluated using two methods. The first is a total residual visualization approach that compares the probability density function (PDF), mean and standard deviations σ "> σ , of the observed and predicted ground motion. The second GMM evaluation method we use is the common total residual probabilistic scoring method (log likelihood [LLH]). The LLH method provides a single score that can be used to weight GMMs in the Hawaii seismic hazard model logic trees. The total residual PDF approach provides additional information by preserving GMM over‐ and underprediction across a broad spectrum of periods that is not available from a single value LLH score. We apply these GMM evaluation methods to two different data sets: (1) a database of instrumental ground motions from historic earthquakes in Hawaii from 1973 to 2007 ( M w "> M w 4–7.3) and (2) available ground motions from recent earthquakes ( M w "> M w 4–6.9) associated with 2018 Kilauea eruptions. The 2018 Kilauea sequence contains both volcanic eruptions and tectonic earthquakes allowing for statistically significant GMM comparisons of the two event classes. The Kilauea ground observations provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of GMMs implemented in the new USGS nshmp‐haz software system. We evaluate GMM performance as a function of earthquake depth and we demonstrate that short‐period volcanic eruption ground motions are not well predicted by any candidate GMMs. Nine of the initial 18 candidate GMMs fit the observed ground motions and meet established criteria for inclusion in the update of the Hawaii seismic hazard model. A weighted mean of four top performing GMMs in this study (NGAsubslab, NGAsubinter, ASK14, A10) is 50% lower for PGA than for GMMS used in the previous USGS seismic hazard model for Hawaii.
This report presents probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Seattle, Washington, based on over 500 3D simulations of ground motions from scenario earthquakes. These maps include 3D sedimentary basin effects and rupture directivity. Nonlinear site response for soft-soil sites of fill and alluvium was also applied in the maps. The report describes the methodology for incorporating source and site dependent amplification factors into a probabilistic seismic hazard calculation. 3D simulations were conducted for the various earthquake sources that can affect Seattle: Seattle fault zone, Cascadia subduction zone, South Whidbey Island fault, and background shallow and deep earthquakes. The maps presented in this document used essentially the same set of faults and distributed-earthquake sources as in the 2002 national seismic hazard maps. The 3D velocity model utilized in the simulations was validated by modeling the amplitudes and waveforms of observed seismograms from five earthquakes in the region, including the 2001 M6.8 Nisqually earthquake. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps presented here depict 1 Hz response spectral accelerations with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The maps are based on determinations of seismic hazard for 7236 sites with a spacing of 280 m. The maps show that the most hazardous locations for this frequency band (around 1 Hz) are soft-soil sites (fill and alluvium) within the Seattle basin and along the inferred trace of the frontal fault of the Seattle fault zone. The next highest hazard is typically found for soft-soil sites in the Duwamish Valley south of the Seattle basin. In general, stiff-soil sites in the Seattle basin exhibit higher hazard than stiff-soil sites outside the basin. Sites with shallow bedrock outside the Seattle basin have the lowest estimated hazard for this frequency band.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been collecting and interpreting natural-resources data in Nevada for more than 100 years. This long-term commitment enables planners to manage better the resources of a State noted for paradoxes. Although Nevada is one of the most sparsely populated States in the Nation, it has the fastest growing population (fig. 1). Although 90 percent of the land is rural, it is the fourth most urban State. Nevada is the most arid State and relies heavily on water resources. Historically, mining and agriculture have formed the basis of the economy; now tourism and urban development also have become important. The USGS works with more than 40 local, State, and other Federal agencies in Nevada to provide natural-resources information for immediate and long-term decisions. Subjects included in this fact sheet: Low-Level Radioactive-Waste Disposal Mining and Water in the Humboldt Basin Aquifer Systems in the Great Basin Water Allocation in Truckee and Carson Basins National Water-Quality Assessment Program Minerals Assessment for Land Management Irrigation Drainage Ground-Water Movement at Nevada Test Site Oil and Gas Resources National Mapping Program Digital Mapping and Aerial Photography Collection of Hydrologlc Data Geologic Mapping Earthquake Hazards Assessing Mineral Resources of the Subsurface Earth Observation Data Cooperative Programs
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a 1-year seismic hazard forecast for 2016 for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Ground shaking seismic hazard for 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year reaches 0.6 g (as a fraction of standard gravity [g]) in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north-central Texas near Dallas. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NHSM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. Increased seismic activity, whether defined as induced or natural, produces high hazard. Conversion of ground shaking to seismic intensity indicates that some places in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Arkansas may experience damage if the induced seismicity continues unabated. The chance of having Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) VI or greater (damaging earthquake shaking) is 5–12 percent per year in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, similar to the chance of damage caused by natural earthquakes at sites in parts of California.
Today’s residents, as well as residents of centuries past, consider Mount Rainier “the spiritual and cultural icon of the Pacific Northwest.” As a backdrop for many of the State’s residents, Mount Rainier offers beauty, solace, inspiration, and challenge. The mountain sets the daily mood for thousands of people who gaze at and respect it. There is no mistaking this object of admiration when people smile and remark that, “the mountain is out!” Yet, the origin of Mount Rainier, formed by volcanic processes and now heavily laden with snow and ice, remains an enigma to many admirers. During the 1980s, volcanologists from around the world voted Mount Rainier as one of 17 volcanoes most worthy of additional study because of the hazard potential to large population centers nearby. Subsequent research indicates that Mount Rainier, though quiet since the nineteenth century, is very much an “active volcano” with potential to erupt again and disrupt the life of Pacific Northwest residents. Following days to months or more of warning, Mount Rainier could erupt lava and ash and melt snow and ice to form lahars (volcanic mudflows). Or, Mount Rainier could simply warm up briefly, jolt us from our apathy, and then return to slumber for many more years. Until such time, the mountain is ours to explore. Living with a Volcano in Your Backyard—An Educator’s Guide with Emphasis on Mount Rainier invites educators and their students to learn what scientists are discovering about Mount Rainier’s past, to explore its slopes during this period of quiescence, and to plan future responses to volcanic unrest. Mount Rainier National Park is a unique classroom, rich in resources for observing geologic change. The park staff encourages safe and knowledgeable use by educators and students and their families. The National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program (USGS-VHP) support development and publication of this educator’s guide as part of their mission to educate the public about volcanoes. The USGS-VHP studies the dynamics of volcanoes, investigates eruption histories, develops hazard assessments, monitors volcano-related activity, and collaborates with local officials to lower the risk of disruption when volcanoes become restless.
Executive Summary The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a consortium of nine Federal, State, and academic agencies that: (1) provides timely monitoring and hazards assessment of volcanic, hydrothermal, and earthquake activity in and around Yellowstone National Park, and (2) conducts research to develop new approaches to volcano monitoring and better understand volcanic activity in the Yellowstone region and elsewhere. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) arm of YVO is also responsible for monitoring and reporting on volcanic activity in the Intermountain West of the United States. The previous YVO monitoring plan for the Yellowstone region spanned 2006–2015 and focused on strengthening the region-wide coverage, or backbone, of monitoring systems (Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 2006). The goals of that plan have largely been achieved thanks to significant investments in instrumentation and infrastructure, especially by the National Science Foundation EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (now known as the Network Of The Americas, or NOTA) and the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act. This revision of the monitoring plan, covering 2022–2032, builds upon these improvements to monitoring systems in the Yellowstone region while also accounting for new insights into the dynamics of the area’s seismic, volcanic, and hydrothermal activity. These additional improvements are designed to fill gaps in the monitoring network and to better understand and track hazards associated with hydrothermal processes. These improvements include: Conversion of remaining analog seismic stations to digital, Addition of Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the vicinity of Norris Geyser Basin and other areas where changes in deformation rate and style have been observed, Implementation of continuous gas monitoring in several areas of Yellowstone National Park, and Improvements to lake, meteorological, and hydrological monitoring to better track hydrothermal activity, including that occurring on lake bottoms, and to aid in understanding of whether such activity might be influenced by external forces, like environmental conditions. The 2022–2032 monitoring plan for the Yellowstone volcanic system also proposes to improve monitoring of hydrothermal areas to better understand these dynamic systems and their associated hazards. To date, only a single seismometer has been placed within one of Yellowstone National Park’s geyser basins because seismic noise associated with boiling water can hinder interpretation of overall seismic and magmatic activity, but this concern has been mitigated by improvements to backbone monitoring. Deployment of geophysical, geochemical, hydrological, and geological monitoring instruments in geyser basins will be accompanied by campaigns to measure gas and water chemistry and flux, as well as aerial and satellite surveys of gas and thermal emissions. Close collaboration between YVO member institutions and other research agencies is needed to achieve these monitoring goals and to use the derived data to advance understanding of how Yellowstone Caldera and similar volcanic systems work. At the same time, attention must be paid to minimize the impact of monitoring efforts and infrastructure on the environment. YVO thus commits to serving as stewards of the natural, cultural, and historical resources in and around Yellowstone National Park while maximizing scientific gain for the betterment of society.
We simulated the concurrent rapid motion of landslides on an unstable slope at Barry Arm, Alaska. Movement of landslides into the adjacent fjord displaced fjord water and generated a tsunami, which propagated out of Barry Arm. Rather than assuming an initial sea surface height, velocity, and location for the tsunami, we generated the tsunami directly using a model capable of simulating the dynamics of both water and landslide material. The fjord below most of the landslide source area was occupied by the Barry Glacier until about 2012; therefore, our direct simulation of tsunami generation by landslide motion required new topographic and bathymetric data, which was collected in 2020. The topographic data also constrained landslide geometries and volumes. We considered four scenarios based on two landslide volumes and two landslide mobilities—a more mobile, contractive landslide and a less mobile, noncontractive landslide. The larger of the two volumes is 689 × 10 6 cubic meters (m 3 )—larger than the volume estimate in a previous study—and reflects the largest plausible volume given current observational data. The considered scenario that generated the largest wave heights resulted in forecast wave heights of over 200 meters (m) in the northern part of Barry Arm, adjacent to the landslide source area and runup on the opposite fjord wall in excess of 500 m. Simulated wave heights in excess of 5 m in southern Barry Arm and in Harriman Fjord occurred within 10–15 minutes (min) of landslide motion. The simulated tsunami reached Whittier, Alaska, approximately 20 min after initial rapid landslide motion, with peak heights of just over 2 m in Passage Fjord, 500 m offshore Whittier, occurring 26 min after initial rapid motion. Time of peak wave heights was consistent with previous modeling. Although results are preliminary and can be refined with additional observations and analyses, they provide a refined assessment of the upper bound of the hazard presented by the Barry Arm landslides. The results herein support the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Tsunami Warning Center mission to detect, forecast, and warn for tsunamis in Alaska.
The Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Applications Project develops enhanced topographic (land elevation) and bathymetric (water depth) datasets that serve as valuable resources for coastal hazards research (Danielson and others, 2016; Thatcher and others, 2016). These datasets are used widely for mapping inundation zones from riverine flood events, hurricanes, and sea-level rise and for other Earth science applications, such as sediment transport, erosion, and storm impact models. CoNED is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal-Marine Hazards and Resources Program (formerly Coastal and Marine Geology Program) activity centered at the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science Center and distributed at other USGS Science Centers. As part of the vision for a 3D Nation, the CoNED Project is working collaboratively with the USGS National Geospatial Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers through the Interagency Working Group on Ocean and Coastal Mapping to build integrated elevation models in the coastal zone by assimilating the land surface topography with littoral zone and continental shelf bathymetry. Several nongovernmental organizations and Federal agencies, including the Department of the Interior Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center, the National Park Service, the Nature Conservancy, the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, and numerous academic institutions, partner to make CoNED a success.
Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical process of interest is sediment transport that is driven by waves, currents, and storm surge associated with storms. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to impact parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology reflects the coastal changes associated with extreme-storm processes. Relevant geomorphic variables that are observable before and after storms include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to quantify coastal change and are used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms (Stockdon and others, 2007). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project ( http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/national-assessment/ ) provides hazard information to those concerned about the Nation’s coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. Extreme-storm research is a component of the NACCH project ( http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ ) that includes development of predictive understanding, vulnerability assessments using models, and updated observations in response to specific storm events. In particular, observations were made to determine morphological changes associated with Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in the United States first at Southwest Pass, at the mouth of the Mississippi River, at 0000 August 29, 2012 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) and again, 8 hours later, west of Port Fourchon, Louisiana (Berg, 2013). Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Isaac. The report is divided into the following sections: Section 1: Introduction Section 2: Storm Overview, presents a synopsis of the storm, including meteorological evolution, wind speed impact area, wind-wave generation, and storm-surge extent and magnitudes. Section 3: Coastal-Change Observations, describes data-collection missions, including acquisition of oblique aerial photography and airborne lidar topographic surveys, in response to Hurricane Isaac. Section 4: Coastal-Change Analysis, describes data-analysis methods and observations of coastal change.
New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.
East Africa is a drought prone, food and water insecure region with a highly variable climate. This complexity makes rainfall estimation challenging, and this challenge is compounded by low rain gauge densities and inhomogeneous monitoring networks. The dearth of observations is particularly problematic over the past decade, since the number of records in globally accessible archives has fallen precipitously. This lack of data coincides with an increasing scientific and humanitarian need to place recent seasonal and multi-annual East African precipitation extremes in a deep historic context. To serve this need, scientists from the UC Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group and Florida State University have pooled their station archives and expertise to produce a high quality gridded ‘Centennial Trends’ precipitation dataset. Additional observations have been acquired from the national meteorological agencies and augmented with data provided by other universities. Extensive quality control of the data was carried out and seasonal anomalies interpolated using kriging. This paper documents the CenTrends methodology and data.
Background Prescribed fire is a common approach to reduce fuels and mitigate fire hazards. The accumulation of live and dead fuels following initial treatment means that repeated application of prescribed fire could be used to maintain this benefit. However, the effect of repeated prescribed fires is not well documented in many dry coniferous forests in the western United States. Here, we present observations of changes in live trees and surface fuels following two prescribed fires in dry coniferous forests in national parks of California. Results Changes in forest structure and accumulation of surface fuels were similar over time following initial-entry and second-entry fires. An exception was that repeated fires were associated with substantial reductions in stem density. There were smaller changes in live tree basal area and stem biomass. Conclusions Our results indicate that following initial-entry fires, subsequent burning maintained reductions in surface fuel loads without major inadvertent losses of live tree basal area and stem biomass, implying the survival of large trees.
Seismic hazard assessments that are based on a variety of data and the best available science, coupled with rapid synthesis of real-time information from continuous monitoring networks to guide post-earthquake response, form a solid foundation for effective earthquake loss reduction. With this in mind, the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area (NHMA) engages in a variety of undertakings, both established and emergent, in order to provide high quality products that enable stakeholders to take action in advance of and in response to earthquakes. Examples include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), development of tools for improved situational awareness such as earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), research about induced seismicity, and new efforts to advance comprehensive subduction zone science and monitoring. Geodetic observations provide unique and complementary information directly relevant to advancing many aspects of these efforts (fig. 1). EHP scientists have long leveraged geodetic data for a range of influential studies, and they continue to develop innovative observation and analysis methods that push the boundaries of the field of geodesy as applied to natural hazards research. Given the ongoing, rapid improvement in availability, variety, and precision of geodetic measurements, considering ways to fully utilize this observational resource for earthquake loss reduction is timely and essential. This report presents strategies, and the underlying scientific rationale, by which the EHP could achieve the following outcomes: The EHP is an authoritative source for the interpretation of geodetic data and its use for earthquake loss reduction throughout the United States and its territories. The USGS consistently provides timely, high quality geodetic data to stakeholders. Significant earthquakes are better characterized by incorporating geodetic data into USGS event response products and by expanded use of geodetic imaging data to assess fault rupture and source parameters. Uncertainties in the NSHM, and in regional earthquake models, are reduced by fully incorporating geodetic data into earthquake probability calculations. Geodetic networks and data are integrated into the operations and earthquake information products of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). Earthquake early warnings are improved by more rapidly assessing ground displacement and the dynamic faulting process for the largest earthquakes using real-time geodetic data. Methodology for probabilistic earthquake forecasting is refined by including geodetic data when calculating evolving moment release during aftershock sequences and by better understanding the implications of transient deformation for earthquake likelihood. A geodesy program that encompasses a balanced mix of activities to sustain missioncritical capabilities, grows new competencies through the continuum of fundamental to applied research, and ensures sufficient resources for these endeavors provides a foundation by which the EHP can be a leader in the application of geodesy to earthquake science. With this in mind the following objectives provide a framework to guide EHP efforts: Fully utilize geodetic information to improve key products, such as the NSHM and EEW, and to address new ventures like the USGS Subduction Zone Science Plan. Expand the variety, accuracy, and timeliness of post-earthquake information products, such as PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), through incorporation of geodetic observations. Determine if geodetic measurements of transient deformation can significantly improve estimates of earthquake probability. Maintain an observational strategy aligned with the target outcomes of this document that includes continuous monitoring, recording of ephemeral observations, focused data collection for use in research, and application-driven data processing and analysis systems. Collaborate on research, development, and operation of affordable, high-precision seafloor geodetic methods that improve earthquake forecasting and event response. Advance computational techniques and instrumentation to enable use of strategies like repeat-pass imagery and low-cost geodetic sensors for earthquake response, monitoring, and research. Engage stakeholders and collaborate with partner institutions to foster operational and research objectives and to safeguard the continued health of geodetic infrastructure upon which we mutually depend. Maintaining a vibrant internal research program provides the foundation by which the EHP can remain an effective and trusted source for earthquake science. Exploiting abundant new data sources, evaluating and assimilating the latest science, and pursuing novel avenues of investigation are means to fulfilling the EHP’s core responsibilities and realizing the important scientific advances envisioned by its scientists. Central to the success of such a research program is engaging personnel with a breadth of competencies and a willingness and ability to adapt these to the program’s evolving priorities, enabling current staff to expand their skills and responsibilities, and planning holistically to meet shared workforce needs. In parallel, collaboration with external partners to support scientific investigations that complement ongoing internal research enables the EHP to strengthen earthquake information products by incorporating alternative perspectives and approaches and to study topics and geographic regions that cannot be adequately covered internally. With commensurate support from technical staff who possess diverse skills, including engineering, information technology, and proficiency in quantitative analysis combined with basic geophysical knowledge, the EHP can achieve the geodetic outcomes identified in this document.
Ground - penetrating radar (GPR) and boreholes were used to investigate a landslide -prone bluff at Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore on the northeastern coast of Lake Michigan . Based on borehole observations, sediment underlying the area is homogeneous, consisting of well-sorted, medium to coarse sand. GPR penetrated up to 20 m deep in these sediments , revealing the late Quaternary stratigraphy in great detail. We define four units, or radar facies, based on criteria similar to those used in seismic stratigraphy. Directly beneath a landslide at Sleeping Bear Point (and nowhere else in this survey) is a deeply incised, channel-fill deposit that intersects the shoreline at a high angle. The buried channel is at least 10 m deep and 400 m wide, and it might be a subglacially carved feature of Pleistocene age. A prominent, planar unconformity marks the upper surface of the channel deposit, which is overlain by stratified beach and dune material. Several crosshole GPR surveys were performed in the vicinity of the landslide: 1) a constant offset profile (COP), 2) a multiple offset gather (MOG), and 3) a vertical radar profile (VRP). Tomographic analysis of these data determined the velocity structure of sandy sediment that underlie the failed bluff. Because GPR velocity is dependent on electrical properties, we use it as a proxy for geotechnical properties of the soils. Our working hypothesis is that the hidden channel may act as a conduit for pore water flow between upland regions and Lake Michigan, and thereby locally reduce soil strength and promote slope failure.
The 2004 magnitude (M) 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake in the Indian Ocean triggered the deadliest tsunami ever, killing more than 230,000 people. In response, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) established three additional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICGs) for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Early Warning System: for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS), for the Indian Ocean, and for the Northeastern Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Connected Seas. Along with the ICG for the Pacific Ocean, which was established in 1965, one of the goals of the new ICGs was to improve earthquake and tsunami monitoring and early warning. This need was further demonstrated by the 2011 Great East Japan (Tōhoku-oki) earthquake and tsunami, which killed more than 20,000 people, and other destructive tsunamis that occurred in the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Chile, Indonesia, and Peru. In response to the call to action by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030), as well as the desired safe ocean outcome (von Hillebrandt-Andrade et al., 2021), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO approved the Ocean Decade Tsunami Programme in June 2021. One of its goals is to develop the capability to issue actionable alerts for tsunamis from all sources with minimum uncertainty within 10 minutes (Angove et al., 2019). While laudable, this goal presents complexities. Currently, warning depends on quick detection as well as the location and initial magnitude estimates of an earthquake that may generate a tsunami. Other factors that affect tsunamis, such as the faulting mechanism (how the faults slide past each other) and areal extent of the earthquake, currently take at least 20–30 minutes to forecast and are still subject to large uncertainties. Hence, agencies charged with tsunami early warning need to broadcast public alerts within minutes after an earthquake occurs but may struggle to meet this 10-minute goal without further technological advances, some of which are outlined in this article. To reduce loss of life through adequate tsunami warning requires global ocean-based seismic, sea level, and geodetic initiatives to detect high-impact earthquakes and tsunamis, combined with sufficient communication and education so that people know how to respond when they receive alerts and warnings. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction defines an early warning system as “a set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities, and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss” (UNISDR, 2012). In short, a successful early warning system requires technology coupled with human factors (Kelman and Glantz, 2014). In this article, we explore case studies from Japan and Canada, where scientists are leading the way in incorporating ocean observing capabilities in their early warning systems. We also explore advancements and challenges in the Caribbean, an area with a complex tectonic environment that would benefit greatly from increased global ocean observing capabilities. We also explore physical and social science interventions necessary to reduce loss of life.