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USGS2025

Integrating marine historical ecology into management of Alaska’s Pacific cod fishery for climate readiness

The Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ) fishery was closed in 2020 after a rapid decline in biomass caused by the marine heat waves of 2014–2019. Pacific cod are exceptionally thermally sensitive and management of this fishery is now challenged by increasingly unpredictable climate conditions. Fisheries monitoring is critical for climate readiness, but short-term monitoring data may be inadequate for recognizing and anticipating change under rapid climate changes. We propose an interdisciplinary, marine historical ecology framework that looks to long-term records (local and traditional knowledge, history, archaeology, and paleoclimatology) to capture a long range of ecological variability and provide historical context for management. In order to connect to contemporary fisheries management, this framework must be built on a common vocabulary and an understanding of the key metrics used in fisheries stock assessments. Here, we propose metrics derived from Pacific cod stock assessment and synthesize information relevant to understanding the effects of past warming periods on cod populations across the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. This case study provides a framework for thinking about how to use these historical records in the context of fisheries management under rapidly changing climate conditions.

Alaska↗

USGS2007

Spatial distribution of juvenile and adult female Tanner crabs (Chionoecetes bairdi) in a glacial fjord ecosystem: Implications for recruitment processes

A systematic pot survey in Glacier Bay, Alaska, was conducted to characterize the spatial distribution of juvenile and adult female Tanner crabs, and their association with depth and temperature. The information was used to infer important recruitment processes for Tanner crabs in glaciated ecosystems. High-catch areas for juvenile and adult female Tanner crabs were identified using local autocorrelation statistics. Spatial segregation by size class corresponded to features in the glacial landscape: high-catch areas for juveniles were located at the distal ends of two narrow glacial fjords, and high-catch areas for adults were located in the open waters of the central Bay. Juvenile female Tanner crabs were found at nearly all sampled depths (15–439 m) and temperatures (4–8°C), but the biggest catches were at depths <150 m where adults were scarce. Because adults may prey on or compete with juveniles, the distribution of juveniles could be influenced by the distribution of adults. Areas where adults or predators are scarce, such as glacially influenced fjords, could serve as refuges for juvenile Tanner crabs.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2009

Sublethal effects of catch-and-release fishing: measuring capture stress, fish impairment, and predation risk using a condition index

The sublethal effects of simulated capture of red snapper ( Lutjanus campechanus ) were analysed using physiological responses, condition indexing, and performance variables. Simulated catch-and-release fishing included combinations of depth of capture and thermocline exposure reflective of environmental conditions experienced in the Gulf of Mexico. Frequency of occurrence of barotrauma and lack of reflex response exhibited considerable individual variation. When combined into a single condition or impairment index, individual variation was reduced, and impairment showed significant increases as depth increased and with the addition of thermocline exposure. Performance variables, such as burst swimming speed (BSS) and simulated predator approach distance (AD), were also significantly different by depth. BSSs and predator ADs decreased with increasing depth, were lowest immediately after release, and were affected for up to 15 min, with longer recovery times required as depth increased. The impairment score developed was positively correlated with cortisol concentration and negatively correlated with both BSS and simulated predator AD. The impairment index proved to be an efficient method to estimate the overall impairment of red snapper in the laboratory simulations of capture and shows promise for use in field conditions, to estimate release mortality and vulnerability to predation.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2014

Mechanisms driving recruitment variability in fish: comparisons between the Laurentian Great Lakes and marine systems

In his seminal work, Hjort (in Fluctuations in the great fisheries of Northern Europe. Conseil Parmanent International Pour L'Exploration De La Mar. Rapports et Proces-Verbaux, 20: 1–228, 1914) observed that fish population levels fluctuated widely, year-class strength was set early in life, and egg production by adults could not alone explain variability in year-class strength. These observations laid the foundation for hypotheses on mechanisms driving recruitment variability in marine systems. More recently, researchers have sought to explain year-class strength of important fish in the Laurentian Great Lakes and some of the hypotheses developed for marine fisheries have been transferred to Great Lakes fish. We conducted a literature review to determine the applicability of marine recruitment hypotheses to Great Lakes fish. We found that temperature, interspecific interactions, and spawner effects (abundance, age, and condition of adults) were the most important factors in explaining recruitment variability in Great Lakes fish, whereas relatively fewer studies identified bottom-up trophodynamic factors or hydrodynamic factors as important. Next, we compared recruitment between Great Lakes and Baltic Sea fish populations and found no statistical difference in factors driving recruitment between the two systems, indicating that recruitment hypotheses may often be transferable between Great Lakes and marine systems. Many recruitment hypotheses developed for marine fish have yet to be applied to Great Lakes fish. We suggest that future research on recruitment in the Great Lakes should focus on forecasting the effects of climate change and invasive species. Further, because the Great Lakes are smaller and more enclosed than marine systems, and have abundant fishery-independent data, they are excellent candidates for future hypothesis testing on recruitment in fish.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2014

Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M , of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M , (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age ( t max ), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce >200 independent, direct estimates of M . We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a t max -based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The t max -based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson–Carney method based on t max and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly’s method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K . It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the t max -based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a t max -based estimator ( M = 4.899 t max − 0.916 "> M = 4.899 t − 0.916 max M=4.899tmax−0.916 , prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method ( M = 4.118 K 0.73 L ∞ − 0.33 "> M = 4.118 K 0.73 L − 0.33 ∞ M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33 , prediction error = 0.6, length in cm) otherwise.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2015

Synergistic and singular effects of river discharge and lunar illumination on dam passage of upstream migrant yellow-phase American eels

Monitoring of dam passage can be useful for management and conservation assessments of American eel, particularly if passage counts can be examined over multiple years. During a 7-year study (2007–2013) of upstream migration of American eels within the lower Shenandoah River (Potomac River drainage), we counted and measured American eels at the Millville Dam eel pass, where annual study periods were determined by the timing of the eel pass installation during spring or summer and removal during fall. Daily American eel counts were analysed with negative binomial regression models, with and without a year (YR) effect, and with the following time-varying environmental covariates: river discharge of the Shenandoah River at Millville (RDM) and of the Potomac River at Point of Rocks, lunar illumination (LI), water temperature, and cloud cover. A total of 17 161 yellow-phase American eels used the pass during the seven annual periods, and length measurements were obtained from 9213 individuals (mean = 294 mm TL, s.e. = 0.49, range 183–594 mm). Data on passage counts of American eels supported an additive-effects model (YR + LI + RDM) where parameter estimates were positive for river discharge (β = 7.3, s.e. = 0.01) and negative for LI (β = −1.9, s.e. = 0.34). Interestingly, RDM and LI acted synergistically and singularly as correlates of upstream migration of American eels, but the highest daily counts and multiple-day passage events were associated with increased RDM. Annual installation of the eel pass during late spring or summer prevented an early spring assessment, a period with higher RDM relative to those values obtained during sampling periods. Because increases in river discharge are climatically controlled events, upstream migration events of American eels within the Potomac River drainage are likely linked to the influence of climate variability on flow regime.

Potomac River drainage, Shenandoah River↗

USGS2016

Interpreting the role of pH on stable isotopes in large benthic foraminifera

Large benthic foraminifera (LBF) are prolific producers of calcium carbonate sediments in shallow, tropical environments that are being influenced by ocean acidification (OA). Two LBF species, Amphistegina gibbosa (Order Rotaliida) with low-Mg calcite tests and Archaias angulatus (Order Miliolida) with high-Mg calcite tests, were studied to assess the effects of pH 7.6 on oxygen and carbon isotopic fractionation between test calcite and ambient seawater. The δ 18 O and δ 13 C values of terminal chambers and of whole adult tests of both species after 6 weeks were not significantly different between pH treatments of 8.0 and 7.6. However, tests of juveniles produced during the 6-week treatments showed significant differences between δ 18 O and δ 13 C values from control (pH 8.0) when compared with the treatment (pH 7.6) for both species. Although each individual's growth was photographed and measured, difficulty in distinguishing and manually extracting newly precipitated calcite from adult specimens likely confounded any differences in isotopic signals. However, juvenile specimens that resulted from asexual reproduction that occurred during the experiments did not contain old carbonate that could confound the new isotopic signals. These data reveal a potential bias in the design of OA experiments if only adults are used to investigate changes in test chemistries. Furthermore, the results reaffirm that different calcification mechanisms in these two foraminiferal orders control the fractionation of stable isotopes in the tests and will reflect decreasing pH in seawater somewhat differently. .

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2016

The logic of comparative life history studies for estimating key parameters, with a focus on natural mortality rate

There are a number of key parameters in population dynamics that are difficult to estimate, such as natural mortality rate, intrinsic rate of population growth, and stock-recruitment relationships. Often, these parameters of a stock are, or can be, estimated indirectly on the basis of comparative life history studies. That is, the relationship between a difficult to estimate parameter and life history correlates is examined over a wide variety of species in order to develop predictive equations. The form of these equations may be derived from life history theory or simply be suggested by exploratory data analysis. Similarly, population characteristics such as potential yield can be estimated by making use of a relationship between the population parameter and bio-chemico–physical characteristics of the ecosystem. Surprisingly, little work has been done to evaluate how well these indirect estimators work and, in fact, there is little guidance on how to conduct comparative life history studies and how to evaluate them. We consider five issues arising in such studies: (i) the parameters of interest may be ill-defined idealizations of the real world, (ii) true values of the parameters are not known for any species, (iii) selecting data based on the quality of the estimates can introduce a host of problems, (iv) the estimates that are available for comparison constitute a non-random sample of species from an ill-defined population of species of interest, and (v) the hierarchical nature of the data (e.g. stocks within species within genera within families, etc., with multiple observations at each level) warrants consideration. We discuss how these issues can be handled and how they shape the kinds of questions that can be asked of a database of life history studies.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2019

Micro-geographic population genetic structure within Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) in Beaufort Sea of Alaska

Many marine organisms show significant levels of genetic heterogeneity on local spatial scales despite exhibiting limited genetic structure at large geographic scales which can be produced through a variety of mechanisms. The Arctic cod ( Boreogadus saida ) is a circumpolar species and is a vital species in Arctic food webs. To examine population genetic structure of Arctic cod at macro- and micro-geographic scales, we characterized variation at mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite loci among Arctic cod located in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas in Alaska. We found two distinct mtDNA haplotype clusters, although there was no underlying geographic pattern ( F ST = −0.001). Congruent with this finding, microsatellite loci suggested a panmictic population ( F ST = 0.001) across northern Alaskan marine waters at a large spatial scale. However, we found slight but significant micro-geographic partitioning of genetic variation in the southern shelf of the Beaufort Sea that appeared to be associated with the western reaches of the Mackenzie River plume. This fine-scale spatial pattern was not associated with kin-associated groups, suggesting larvae cohorts are not remaining together throughout development. We hypothesize that this pattern reflects the intermixing of Pacific and Arctic origin lineages of Arctic cod.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Combining fisheries surveys to inform marine species distribution modelling

Ecosystem-scale examination of fish communities typically involves creating spatio-temporally explicit relative abundance distribution maps using data from multiple fishery-independent surveys. However, sampling performance varies by vessel and sampling gear, which may influence estimated species distribution patterns. Using GAMMs, the effect of different gear–vessel combinations on relative abundance estimates at length was investigated using European fisheries-independent groundfish survey data. We constructed a modelling framework for evaluating relative efficiency of multiple gear–vessel combinations. 19 northeast Atlantic surveys for 254 species-length combinations were examined. Space-time variables explained most of the variation in catches for 181/254 species-length cases, indicating that for many species, models successfully characterized distribution patterns when combining data from disparate surveys. Variables controlling for gear efficiency explained substantial variation in catches for 127/254 species-length data sets. Models that fail to control for gear efficiencies across surveys can mask changes in the spatial distribution of species. Estimated relative differences in catch efficiencies grouped strongly by gear type, but did not exhibit a clear pattern across species’ functional forms, suggesting difficulty in predicting the potential impact of gear efficiency differences when combining survey data to assess species’ distributions and highlighting the importance of modelling approaches that can control for gear differences.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2023

Changes in abiotic drivers of green sea urchin demographics following the loss of a keystone predator

Sea urchin population demographics can respond to changes in keystone species abundances, with the magnitude of these responses varying depending on environmental influences. In this study, sea urchin populations were surveyed across 15 Aleutian archipelago islands over a 30-year period to understand how patterns of sea urchin demography (density, biomass, and size structure) varied through different ecological regimes that were caused by changes in the abundance of sea otters, a keystone species in this system. To examine long-term changes in sea urchin demographics, four time periods across the recent decline of sea otters were examined: during sea otter presence (1987-1994), nearing absence at the end of the decline (1997-2000), 10 years postdecline (2008-2010), and 15-20 years following the loss of sea otters from the ecosystem (2014-2017). Our results show that when sea otters were broadly present, sea urchin demographics were generally similar across the archipelago, with few urchins that had large-sized bodies. During this time, bottom-up environmental controls were muted relative to top-down forces from keystone predation. However, as sea otters declined and remained absent from the system, abiotic factors became more influential on sea urchin biomass, density, and size structure. In particular, differences among island groups during these periods were correlated with variation in ocean temperature, bathymetric complexity, and habitat availability. Sea urchin recruitment also varied among island groups, corresponding to ecoregions delineated by oceanic passes across the archipelago. The functional extinction of sea otters revealed an increasing influence of abiotic forcing in the absence of top-down control. This study further highlights the importance of understanding how keystone predators regulate herbivore demographics.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

The potential of wave energy conversion to mitigate coastal erosion from hurricanes

Wave energy conversion technologies have recently attracted more attention as part of global efforts to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy resources. While ocean waves can provide renewable energy, they can also be destructive to coastal areas that are often densely populated and vulnerable to coastal erosion. There have been a variety of efforts to mitigate the impacts of wave- and storm-induced erosion; however, they are either temporary solutions or approaches that are not able to adapt to a changing climate. This study explores a green and sustainable approach to mitigating coastal erosion from hurricanes through wave energy conversion. A barrier island, Dauphin Island, off the coast of Alabama, is used as a test case. The potential use of wave energy converter farms to mitigate erosion due to hurricane storm surges while simultaneously generating renewable energy is explored through simulations that are forced with storm data using the XBeach model. It is shown that wave farms can impact coastal morphodynamics and have the potential to reduce dune and beach erosion, predominantly in the western portion of the island. The capacity of wave farms to influence coastal morphodynamics varies with the storm intensity.

Alabama↗

USGS2022

Shoaling wave shape estimates from field observations and derived bedload sediment rates

The shoaling transformation from generally linear deep-water waves to asymmetric shallow-water waves modifies wave shapes and causes near-bed orbital velocities to become asymmetrical, contributing to net sediment transport. In this work, we used two methods to estimate the asymmetric wave shape from data at three sites. The first method converted wave measurements made at the surface to idealized near-bottom wave-orbital velocities using a set of empirical equations: the “parameterized” waveforms. The second method involved direct measurements of velocities and pressure made near the seabed: the “direct” waveforms. Estimates from the two methods were well correlated at all three sites (Pearson’s correlation coefficient greater than 0.85). Both methods were used to drive bedload-transport calculations that accounted for asymmetric waves, and the results were compared with a traditional excess-stress formulation and field estimates of bedload transport derived from ripple migration rates based on sonar imagery. The cumulative bedload transport from the parameterized waveform was 25% greater than the direct waveform, mainly because the parameterized waveform did not account for negative skewness. Calculated transport rates were comparable to rates estimated from ripple migration except during the largest event, when calculated rates were as much as 100 times greater, which occurred during high period waves.

Florida, Massachusetts, New York↗

USGS2022

A numerical study of geomorphic and oceanographic controls on wave-driven runup on fringing reefs with shore-normal channels

Many populated, tropical coastlines fronted by fringing coral reefs are exposed to wave-driven marine flooding that is exacerbated by sea-level rise. Most fringing coral reef are not alongshore uniform, but bisected by shore-normal channels; however, little is known about the influence of such channels on alongshore variations on runup and flooding of the adjacent coastline. We con-ducted a parametric study using the numeric model XBeach that demonstrates that a shore-normal channel results in substantial alongshore variations in waves, wave-driven water levels, and the resulting runup. Depending on the geometry and forcing, runup is greater either on the coastline adjacent to the channel terminus or at locations near the alongshore extent of the channel. The impact of channels on runup increases for higher incident waves, lower incident wave steepness, wider channels, a narrower reef, and shorter channel spacing. Alongshore varia-tion of infragravity waves is predominantly responsible for large-scale variations in runup out-side the channel, whereas setup, sea-swell waves, and very-low frequency waves mainly increase runup inside the channel. These results provide insight into which coastal locations adjacent to shore-normal channels are most vulnerable to high runup events, using only widely available data such as reef geometry and offshore wave conditions.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗

USGS2022

Geologic framework, anthropogenic impacts, and hydrodynamics contribute to variable sediment availability and shoreface morphology at the Rockaway Peninsula, NY

Recent field and modeling studies have shown that barrier island resiliency is sensitive to sediment fluxes from the shoreface, making it important to evaluate how shoreface sediment availability varies in coastal systems. To do this, we assessed shoreface geology and morphology along the Rockaway Peninsula, NY, USA. We find that spatial variability in shoreface volume is influenced by sediment accommodation above the Holocene-Pleistocene (H-P) contact, historical barrier island evolution, and natural and engineered morphologic features, suggesting that simply identifying the H-P boundary may not be adequate for defining the shoreface reservoir. Further, sediment flux from the lower shoreface to the beach may be reduced by geologically limited cross-shore sediment distribution and shoreface steepening mediated by human modifications to the shoreline. Finally, the geologic limit of the shoreface is often shallower than a wave-based estimate of shoreface extent, implying that the geologic shoreface extent at our study site can be mobilized over short time scales (years-decades) and that the wave-based shoreface extent may be inaccurate when estimating shoreline response to sea-level rise. Our results demonstrate that the combination of hydrodynamics, humans, and geology on shoreface sediment fluxes impact how barrier islands respond to future changes in sediment supply and climate.

New York↗

USGS2022

Categorizing active marine acoustic sources based on their potential to affect marine animals

Marine acoustic sources are widely used for geophysical imaging, oceanographic sensing, and communicating with and tracking objects or robotic vehicles in the water column. Under the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act and similar regulations in several other countries, the impact of controlled acoustic sources is assessed based on whether the sound levels received by marine mammals meet the criteria for harassment that causes certain behavioral responses. This study describes quantitative factors beyond received sound levels that could be used to assess how marine species are affected by many commonly deployed marine acoustic sources, including airguns, high-resolution geophysical sources (e.g., multibeam echosounders, sidescan sonars, subbottom profilers, boomers, and sparkers), oceanographic instrumentation (e.g., acoustic doppler current profilers, split-beam fisheries sonars), and communication/tracking sources (e.g., acoustic releases and locators, navigational transponders). Using physical criteria about the sources, such as source level, transmission frequency, directionality, beamwidth, and pulse repetition rate, we divide marine acoustic sources into four tiers that could inform regulatory evaluation. Tier 1 refers to high-energy airgun surveys with a total volume larger than 1500 in 3 (24.5 L) or arrays with more than 12 airguns, while Tier 2 covers the remaining low/intermediate energy airgun surveys. Tier 4 includes most high-resolution geophysical, oceanographic, and communication/tracking sources, which are considered unlikely to result in incidental take of marine mammals and therefore termed de minimis . Tier 3 covers most non-airgun seismic sources, which either have characteristics that do not meet the de minimis category (e.g., some sparkers) or could not be fully evaluated here (e.g., bubble guns, some boomers). We also consider the simultaneous use of multiple acoustic sources, discuss marine mammal field observations that are consistent with the de minimis designation for some acoustic sources, and suggest how to evaluate acoustic sources that are not explicitly considered here.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗

USGS2024

Characterization of the structural–stratigraphic and reservoir controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend, Alaska North Slope

One of the most studied permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations in Arctic Alaska is the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend. This study provides a detailed re-examination of the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend with a focus on the gas hydrate accumulation in the western part of the Prudhoe Bay Unit. This integrated analysis of downhole well log data and published geophysical data has provided new insight on structural, stratigraphic, and reservoir controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend. This study revealed the relatively complex nature of the gas hydrate occurrences in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend, with gas hydrates present in a series of coarsening upward, laterally pervasive, mostly fine-grained sand beds exhibiting high gas hydrate saturations. Most of the gas hydrate-bearing reservoirs in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend are laterally segmented into distinct northwest- to southeast-trending fault blocks, occur in a combination of structural–stratigraphic traps, and are only partially hydrate filled with distinct down-dip water contacts. These findings suggest that the traditional parts of a petroleum system (i.e., reservoir, gas source, gas migration, and geologic timing of the system formation) also control the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Photogrammetry of the deep seafloor from archived unmanned submersible exploration dives

Large amounts of video images have been collected for decades by scientific and governmental organizations in deep (>1000 m) water using manned and unmanned submersibles and towed cameras. The collected images were analyzed individually or were mosaiced in small areas with great effort. Here, we provide a workflow for utilizing modern photogrammetry to construct virtual geological outcrops hundreds or thousands of meters in length from these archived video images. The photogrammetry further allows quantitative measurements of these outcrops, which were previously unavailable. Although photogrammetry had been carried out in recent years in the deep sea, it had been limited to small areas with pre-defined overlapping dive paths. Here, we propose a workflow for constructing virtual outcrops from archived exploration dives, which addresses the complicating factors posed by single non-linear and variable-speed vehicle paths. These factors include poor navigation, variable lighting, differential color attenuation due to variable distance from the seafloor, and variable camera orientation with respect to the vehicle. In particular, the lack of accurate navigation necessitates reliance on image quality and the establishment of pseudo-ground-control points to build the photogrammetry model. Our workflow offers an inexpensive method for analyzing deep-sea geological environments from existing video images, particularly when coupled with rock samples.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗