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Results for “Journal of Flood Risk Management”

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USGS2016

Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

USGS2007

The need for sustained and integrated high-resolution mapping of dynamic coastal environments

The coastal zone of the United States is a dynamic environment evolving in response to both natural processes and human activities. In order to protect coastal populations and resources, a detailed understanding of the physical setting and of the processes responsible for change is required. A sustained program of mapping coastal areas provides a means to establish baseline conditions, document change, and, in conjunction with models of physical processes, predict future behavior. Recent advances in mapping technology, including airborne lidars and hyperspectral imagers, allow for the rapid collection of high-resolution elevation data and land use information on a national scale. These rich data sets are critical to evaluating risk associated with coastal hazards, such as flooding during extreme storms. For example, coastal elevation data is a fundamental parameter in storm surge models that predict where flooding will occur, and land use maps serve as the foundation of assessments that identify the resources and populations that are most vulnerable. A comprehensive, national coastal mapping plan that is designed to collect, manage, and distribute these data, as well as to take advantage of recent progress in mapping technology, will provide a wealth of information for studying the processes of physical change, for determining areas vulnerable to coastal hazards, and for protecting and managing our coastal communities and resources.

Marine Technology Society Journal↗

USGS2011

Biology, status, and management of the yellowstone cutthroat trout

Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri were historically distributed in the Yellowstone River drainage (Montana and Wyoming) and the Snake River drainage (Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and probably Washington). Individual populations evolved distinct life history characteristics in response to the diverse environments in which they were isolated after the last glaciation. Anthropogenic activities have resulted in a substantial decline (42% of the historical range is currently occupied; 28% is occupied by core [genetically unaltered] populations), but the number of extant populations, especially in headwater streams, has precluded listing of this taxon under the Endangered Species Act. Primary threats to persistence of Yellowstone cutthroat trout include (1) invasive species, resulting in hybridization, predation, disease, and interspecific competition; (2) habitat degradation from human activities such as agricultural practices, water diversions, grazing, dam construction, mineral extraction, grazing, timber harvest, and road construction; and (3) climate change, including an escalating risk of drought, wildfire, winter flooding, and rising temperatures. Extirpation of individual populations or assemblages has led to increasing isolation and fragmentation of remaining groups, which in turn raises susceptibility to the demographic influences of disturbance (both human and stochastic) and genetic factors. Primary conservation strategies include (1) preventing risks associated with invasive species by isolating populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and (2) connecting occupied habitats (where possible) to preserve metapopulation function and the expression of multiple life histories. Because persistence of isolated populations may be greater in the short term, current management is focused on isolating individual populations and restoring habitats; however, this approach implies that humans will act as dispersal agents if a population is extirpated because of stochastic events.

Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2013

A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

California↗

USGS2012

Elevated streamflows increase dam passage by juvenile coho salmon during winter: Implications of climate change in the Pacific Northwest

A 4-year evaluation was conducted to determine the proportion of juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch passing Cowlitz Falls Dam, on the Cowlitz River, Washington, during winter. River and reservoir populations of coho salmon parr were monitored using radiotelemetry to determine if streamflow increases resulted in increased downstream movement and dam passage. This was of interest because fish that pass downstream of Cowlitz Falls Dam become landlocked in Riffe Lake and are lost to the anadromous population. Higher proportions of reservoir-released fish (0.391-0.480) passed Cowlitz Falls Dam than did river-released fish (0.037-0.119). Event-time analyses demonstrated that streamflow increases were important predictors of dam passage rates during the study. The estimated effect of increasing streamflows on the risk of dam passage varied annually and ranged from 9% to 75% for every 28.3 m 3 /s increase in streamflow. These results have current management implications because they demonstrate the significance of dam passage by juvenile coho salmon during winter months when juvenile fish collection facilities are typically not operating. The results also have future management implications because climate change predictions suggest that peak streamflow timing for many watersheds in the Pacific Northwest will shift from late spring and early summer to winter. Increased occurrence of intense winter flood events is also expected. Our results demonstrate that juvenile coho salmon respond readily to streamflow increases and initiate downstream movements during winter months, which could result in increased passage at dams during these periods if climate change predictions are realized in the coming decades.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Daily survival rates for nests of Black Skimmers from a core breeding area of the Southeastern USA

Little is known about the reproductive success of Black Skimmers ( Rynchops niger ) throughout the southeastern USA where availability of undisturbed beaches for nesting is limited. Daily survival rates (DSR) of nests were examined at three nesting sites in Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (CRNWR), South Carolina, USA, 2009–2010. The percent of successful nests ( n = 346 nests) ranged from 42–69% among colony sites when data were pooled across both years. The DSR of nests was primarily related to colony site, predation risk, height of high tide, and clutch size. Predation and overwash were the principal causes of identifiable nest loss, each accounting for &sim;33% of nest failures during the two study years. Because of the challenges of resighting skimmer chicks, we were not able to measure chick survival effectively and therefore accurate measures of productivity remain elusive. High variability in nest success among sites within close proximity to each other (<20 km) suggests factors at local scales such as disturbance, predation, and overwash events strongly influenced nest success of Black Skimmers during these 2 years as opposed to more region-wide stressors such as tropical storms or food availability. Although time-intensive techniques to control predators do exist, management options to limit flooding and overwash are far more limited. Conservation of Black Skimmers in the southeastern USA would benefit from coordinated, multi-state efforts to measure nest and chick survival.

South Carolina↗

USGS2025

Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the urban, semiarid Yucaipa Valley watershed, southern California using an integrated hydrologic model

Managing water resources in semiarid watersheds is challenging due to limited supply and uncertain future climate conditions. This paper examines the impact of future climate changes on an urban watershed in southern California using an integrated hydrologic model. GSFLOW modeling software is used to simulate the nonlinear relationships between climate trends and precipitation partitioning into ET, runoff, and subsurface storage. Four global circulation models (GCMs), each with two greenhouse-gas scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85 are used to project future climate conditions. GCMs include the CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5 models. The model's simulated hydrologic conditions are compared with historical data to assess changes in water budgets and groundwater supply. Results indicate decreased groundwater storage in most scenarios due to increased natural evapotranspiration, vegetation consumptive use, and streamflow out of the watershed. Only scenarios with substantially increased future precipitation show increased groundwater storage. The study also highlights increased future aridity despite the rise in precipitation and large precipitation events forecast by GCMs, which increase the risk of urban floods and decrease stream leakage and water available to vegetation.

California↗

USGS2022

Supplemental habitat is reservoir dependent: Identifying optimal planting decision using Bayesian Decision Networks

Environmental management often requires making decisions despite system uncertainty. One such example is mudflat mediation in flood control reservoirs. Reservoir mudflats limit development of diverse fish assemblages due to the lack of structural habitat provided by plants. Seeding mudflats with agricultural plants may mimic floodplain wetlands once inundated and provide fish habitat and achieve habitat management objectives. However, planting success is uncertain because of unpredictable water level fluctuations that affect plant survival and growth. Decision support tools can account for uncertainty that influences decision outcomes and reduce the risk in reservoir mudflat planting decisions. We used Bayesian decision networks and sensitivity analyses to quantify uncertainty surrounding mudflat plantings as supplemental fish habitat in four northwest Mississippi reservoirs. When averaged across all uncertainty, planting was the optimal decision only in Enid Lake. Response profiles indicated planting decisions depended on elevation contours within Enid, Sardis, and Grenada reservoirs. No planting was optimal at all elevations for Arkabutla Lake. These results provide a quantified basis for establishing best management practices and identify key system states that influence decision outcomes. The process used in this study to evaluate planting decisions can be applied to any reservoir by modifying reservoir dependent inputs to evaluate planting decisions to provide supplemental fish habitat.

Mississippi↗

USGS2018

A review of coastal management approaches to support the integration of ecological and human community planning for climate change

The resilience of socio-ecological systems to sea level rise, storms and flooding can be enhanced when coastal habitats are used as natural infrastructure. Grey infrastructure has long been used for coastal flood protection but can lead to unintended negative impacts. Natural infrastructure often provides similar services as well as added benefits that support short- and long-term biological, cultural, social, and economic goals. While natural infrastructure is becoming more widespread in practice, it often represents a relatively small fraction within portfolios of coastal risk-reducing strategies compared to more traditional grey infrastructure. This study provides a comprehensive review of how natural infrastructure is being used along the United States Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean coasts related to four habitats – tidal marshes, beaches and barrier islands, mangroves, and biogenic reefs. We compare information on the benefits, opportunities and challenges of implementing natural, grey and hybrid infrastructure in the coastal zone. In addition, we present a suite of actions to increase information and reduce uncertainty so that coastal mangers and planners are aware of the full suite of options for restoration, conservation and planning that maximize ecosystem services over short- and long-term planning horizons.

Journal of Coastal Conservation↗

USGS2018

Time series of high-resolution images enhances efforts to monitor post-fire condition and recovery, Waldo Canyon fire, Colorado, USA

Interpretations of post-fire condition and rates of vegetation recovery can influence management priorities, actions and perception of latent risks from landslides and floods. In this study, we used the Waldo Canyon fire (2012, Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA) as a case study to explore how a time series (2011–2016) of high-resolution images can be used to delineate burn extent and severity, as well as quantify post-fire vegetation recovery. We applied an object-based approach to map burn severity and vegetation recovery using Worldview-2, Worldview-3 and QuickBird-2 imagery. The burned area was classified as 51% high, 20% moderate and 29% low burn-severity. Across the burn extent, the shrub cover class showed a rapid recovery, resprouting vigorously within 1 year, whereas 4 years post-fire, areas previously dominated by conifers were divided approximately equally between being classified as dominated by quaking aspen saplings with herbaceous species in the understorey or minimally recovered. Relative to using a pixel-based Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), our object-based approach showed higher rates of revegetation. High-resolution imagery can provide an effective means to monitor post-fire site conditions and complement more prevalent efforts with moderate- and coarse-resolution sensors.

Colorado↗

USGS2016

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2003

Data-based comparisons of moments estimators using historical and paleoflood data

This paper presents the first systematic comparison, using historical and paleoflood data, of moments-based flood frequency methods. Peak flow estimates were compiled from streamflow-gaging stations with historical and/or paleoflood data at 36 sites located in the United States, Argentina, United Kingdom and China, covering a diverse range of hydrologic conditions. The Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) and the Bulletin 17B historical weighting procedure (B17H) were compared in terms of goodness of fit using 25 of the data sets. Results from this comparison indicate that EMA is a viable alternative to current B17H procedures from an operational perspective, and performed equal to or better than B17H for the data analyzed. We demonstrate satisfactory EMA performance for the remaining 11 sites with multiple thresholds and binomial censoring, which B17H cannot accommodate. It is shown that the EMA estimator readily incorporates these types of information and the LP-III distribution provided an adequate fit to the data in most cases. The results shown here are consistent with Monte Carlo simulation studies, and demonstrate that EMA is preferred overall to B17H. The Bulletin 17B document could be revised to include an option for EMA as an alternative to the existing historical weighting approach. These results are of practical relevance to hydrologists and water resources managers for applications in floodplain management, design of hydraulic structures, and risk analysis for dams. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2017

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery performance according to the literature

Introduction The need to increase the efficiency of oil recovery and environmental concerns are bringing to prominence the use of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as a tertiary recovery agent. Assessment of the impact of flooding with CO 2 all eligible reservoirs in the United States not yet undergoing enhanced oil recovery (EOR) requires making the best possible use of the experience gained in 40 years of applications. Review of the publicly available literature has located relevant CO 2 -EOR information for 53 units (fields, reservoirs, pilot areas) in the United States and 17 abroad. As the world simultaneously faces an increasing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere and a higher demand for fossil fuels, the CO 2 -EOR process continues to gain popularity for its efficiency as a tertiary recovery agent and for the potential for having some CO 2 trapped in the subsurface as an unintended consequence of the enhanced production (Advanced Resources International and Melzer Consulting, 2009). More extensive application of CO 2 -EOR worldwide, however, is not making it significantly easier to predict the exact outcome of the CO 2 flooding in new reservoirs. The standard approach to examine and manage risks is to analyze the intended target by conducting laboratory work, running simulation models, and, finally, gaining field experience with a pilot test. This approach, though, is not always possible. For example, assessment of the potential of CO 2 -EOR at the national level in a vast country such as the United States requires making forecasts based on information already available. Although many studies are proprietary, the published literature has provided reviews of CO 2 -EOR projects. Yet, there is always interest in updating reports and analyzing the information under new perspectives. Brock and Bryan (1989) described results obtained during the earlier days of CO 2 -EOR from 1972 to 1987. Most of the recovery predictions, however, were based on intended injections of 30 percent the size of the reservoir’s hydrocarbon pore volume (HCPV), and the predictions in most cases badly missed the actual recoveries because of the embryonic state of tertiary recovery in general and CO 2 flooding in particular at the time. Brock and Bryan (1989), for example, reported for the Weber Sandstone in the Rangely oil field in Colorado, an expected recovery of 7.5 percent of the original oil in place (OOIP) after injecting a volume of CO 2 equivalent to 30 percent of the HCPV, but Clark (2012) reported that after injecting a volume of CO 2 equivalent to 46 percent of the HCPV, the actual recovery was 4.8 percent of the OOIP. Decades later, the numbers by Brock and Bryan (1989) continue to be cited as part of expanded reviews, such as the one by Kuuskraa and Koperna (2006). Other comprehensive reviews including recovery factors are those of Christensen and others (2001) and Lake and Walsh (2008). The Oil and Gas Journal (O&GJ) periodically reports on active CO 2 -EOR operations worldwide, but those releases do not include recovery factors. The monograph by Jarrell and others (2002) remains the most technically comprehensive publication on CO 2 flooding, but it does not cover recovery factors either. This chapter is a review of the literature found in a search for information about CO 2 -EOR. It has been prepared as part of a project by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to assess the incremental oil production that would be technically feasible by CO 2 flooding of all suitable oil reservoirs in the country not yet undergoing tertiary recovery.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Mitigating flood risks in urban estuaries: Tidal dynamics, shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and floodgates in San Francisco Bay

Hydrodynamic models are valuable tools for understanding the primary factors influencing daily and peak water levels and for guiding discussions on potential adaptation strategies for managing flood risk in coastal areas. This analysis uses the Delft3D San Francisco Bay-Delta Community Model to simulate water levels and incorporates the effects of a number of adaptation measures in the urban San Francisco Bay estuary, California. In particular, we examine the influence of shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and subregional floodgates on regional water levels. The result shows that under present conditions, tidal amplification is responsible for generating a wide distribution of extreme water levels across San Francisco Bay. Tidal amplification is found to decrease under sea level rise, thereby producing a relative damping effect on extremes. A comparison of different shoreline scenarios demonstrates that hard frontal shorelines result in higher tidal amplification, whereas restored (soft) shorelines lower amplification. The current shoreline configuration has both hard and soft characteristics and results in an intermediate tidal response. In some areas, wetland restoration reduces extreme water levels by as much as 20 cm, whereas hard-shoreline addition elevates them by as much as 10 cm for 1.5 m of sea level rise. Furthermore, local floodgates can significantly reduce high water levels without major adverse effects elsewhere in San Francisco Bay. These findings point toward the justification for a range of adaptive measures across political boundaries, weighing hard and soft options in addressing the mounting danger of sea level rise.

California↗

USGS2021

Selection of habitat-enhancing plants depends on predator-prey interactions

Shallow areas of drawdown reservoirs are often devoid of adequate fish habitat due to degradation associated with unnatural and relatively invariable cycles of exposure and flooding. One method of enhancing fish habitat in these areas is to sow exposed shorelines with agricultural plants to provide structure once flooded. It remains unclear if some plants may be more suitable than others to provide effective fish habitat. To determine the fish habitat potential of various crops, we performed a replicated tank experiment evaluating the selection of agricultural plants by prey and predator fishes with and without the presence of the other. We submerged diverse treatments of potted plants in outdoor mesocosms stocked with prey and/or predator fish and monitored selection of plant species, stem density, and stem height over 0.5-h trials. Prey fish selected the densest vegetation, and selection was accentuated when a predator was present. Predators selected the second highest stem density and were more active when prey were present. Prey schooling was increased by predation risk, suggesting that cover was insufficient to outweigh the advantages of increased group size. Our data indicate that the perception of cover quality is reciprocally context dependent on predator–prey interactions for both predator and prey. Applications of the two most selected plant treatments in this study could enhance structural habitat for both predator and prey fishes in reservoirs, adding to their already reliable functionality as supplemental forage crops for terrestrial wildlife.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2016

Topobathymetric elevation model development using a new methodology: Coastal National Elevation Database

During the coming decades, coastlines will respond to widely predicted sea-level rise, storm surge, and coastalinundation flooding from disastrous events. Because physical processes in coastal environments are controlled by the geomorphology of over-the-land topography and underwater bathymetry, many applications of geospatial data in coastal environments require detailed knowledge of the near-shore topography and bathymetry. In this paper, an updated methodology used by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Applications Project is presented for developing coastal topobathymetric elevation models (TBDEMs) from multiple topographic data sources with adjacent intertidal topobathymetric and offshore bathymetric sources to generate seamlessly integrated TBDEMs. This repeatable, updatable, and logically consistent methodology assimilates topographic data (land elevation) and bathymetry (water depth) into a seamless coastal elevation model. Within the overarching framework, vertical datum transformations are standardized in a workflow that interweaves spatially consistent interpolation (gridding) techniques with a land/water boundary mask delineation approach. Output gridded raster TBDEMs are stacked into a file storage system of mosaic datasets within an Esri ArcGIS geodatabase for efficient updating while maintaining current and updated spatially referenced metadata. Topobathymetric data provide a required seamless elevation product for several science application studies, such as shoreline delineation, coastal inundation mapping, sediment-transport, sea-level rise, storm surge models, and tsunami impact assessment. These detailed coastal elevation data are critical to depict regions prone to climate change impacts and are essential to planners and managers responsible for mitigating the associated risks and costs to both human communities and ecosystems. The CoNED methodology approach has been used to construct integrated TBDEM models in Mobile Bay, the northern Gulf of Mexico, San Francisco Bay, the Hurricane Sandy region, and southern California.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2018

Comparative nest survival of three sympatric loon species breeding in the Arctic

Identifying factors influencing nest survival among sympatric species is important for understanding and managing sources of variation in population dynamics of individual species. Three species of loons nest sympatrically in northern Alaska and differ in body size, life history characteristics, and population trends. We tested the effects of competition, nest site selection, and water level variations on nest survival of Pacific Gavia pacifica , yellow‐billed G. adamsii , and red‐throated loons G. stellata on the Arctic Coastal Plain in Alaska. Although overall nest survival rates did not differ between species, the factors influencing nest survival varied. Nest site selection influenced nest survival for Pacific and yellow‐billed loons, with both species having high nest survival when nesting on islands and peninsulas, likely due to a reduction in access by terrestrial predators. However, on mainland shorelines, Pacific loons had lower nest survival than yellow‐billed loons, and used a higher proportion of vegetation mats for nest sites suggesting that their smaller body size makes them less adept at nest defense. Nest site selection did not influence nest survival of red‐throated loons corresponding to our result of no nest site preferences by this species. Initiation date had a strong influence on nest survival for Pacific and yellow‐billed loons with nests laid earlier having higher survival. Pacific and yellow‐billed loon nests were susceptible to flooding due to precipitation, which contrasted with red‐throated loons that nest on smaller lakes with lower water level variations. Competition did not affect nest survival for any of the species likely due to most territorial encounters occurring prior to incubation. The only influence we found on red‐throated loon nest survival was differences among years. Our results indicate that loons chose nest sites based on predation risk and that factors influencing breeding success of closely related species may differ under similar breeding conditions.

Alaska↗