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Results for “Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems”

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28 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Combining numerical and statistical models to predict storm-induced dune erosion

Dune erosion is an important aspect to consider when assessing coastal flood risk, as dune elevation loss makes the protected areas more susceptible to flooding. However, most advanced dune erosion numerical models are computationally expensive, which hinders their application in early-warning systems. Based on a combination of probabilistic and process-based numerical modeling, we develop an efficient statistical tool to predict dune erosion during storms. The analysis focuses on Dauphin Island, AL in the northern Gulf of Mexico, where we combine synthetic sea storms with a calibrated and validated XBeach model to develop and test a range of different surrogate models for their ability to predict barrier-island geometric parameters under storm conditions. Surrogate models are developed by combining the oceanographic forcing from 100 optimally sampled sea-storm events covering the entire multivariate parameter space (used as XBeach input) and associated changes in the dune system (XBeach output). We test four surrogate models using a k-fold approach for validation. All models perform well in predicting changes in dune elevation, barrier-island area, and width, but are less accurate in predicting alterations in the cross-shore locations of dune morphological features. Multivariate adaptive regression splines are identified as the best surrogate model based on their fast development and good performance, attaining a modified Mielke index of 0.81 for dune crest height. As demonstrated at Dauphin Island, our approach shows potential to be used in an operational framework to predict dune response (in particular crest elevation change) when water level and wave forecasts are available.

Alabama↗
USGS2008

Correlation of the Deccan and Rajahmundry Trap lavas: Are these the longest and largest lava flows on Earth?

We propose that the Rajahmundry Trap lavas, found near the east coast of peninsular India , are remnants of the longest lava flows yet recognized on Earth (∼ 1000 km long). These outlying Deccan-like lavas are shown to belong to the main Deccan Traps. Several previous studies have already suggested this correlation, but have not demonstrated it categorically. The exposed Rajahmundry lavas are interpreted to be the distal parts of two very-large-volume pāhoehoe flow fields, one each from the Ambenali and Mahabaleshwar Formations of the Wai Sub-group in the Deccan Basalt Group. Eruptive conditions required to emplace such long flows are met by plausible values for cooling and eruption rates, and this is shown by applying a model for the formation of inflated pāhoehoe sheet flow lobes. The model predicts flow lobe thicknesses similar to those observed in the Rajahmundry lavas. For the last 400 km of flow, the lava flows were confined to the pre-existing Krishna valley drainage system that existed in the basement beyond the edge of the gradually expanding Deccan lava field, allowing the flows to extend across the subcontinent to the eastern margin where they were emplaced into a littoral and/or shallow marine environment. These lavas and other individual flow fields in the Wai Sub-group may exceed eruptive volumes of 5000 km 3 , which would place them amongst the largest magnitude effusive eruptive units yet known. We suggest that the length of flood basalt lava flows on Earth is restricted mainly by the size of land masses and topography. In the case of the Rajahmundry lavas, the flows reached estuaries and the sea, where their advance was perhaps effectively terminated by cooling and/or disruption. However, it is only during large igneous province basaltic volcanism that such huge volumes of lava are erupted in single events, and when the magma supply rate is sufficiently high and maintained to allow the formation of very long lava flows. The Rajahmundry lava fields were emplaced around 65 Ma during the later times of Deccan volcanism, probably just after the K/T environmental crisis. However, many lava-forming eruptions of similar magnitude and style straddled the K/T boundary.

Rajahmundry Trap↗
USGS2020

Sediment connectivity: A framework for analyzing coastal sediment transport pathways

Connectivity provides a framework for analyzing coastal sediment transport pathways, building on conceptual advances in graph theory from other scientific disciplines. Connectivity schematizes sediment pathways as a directed graph (i.e., a set of nodes and links). This study presents a novel application of graph theory and connectivity metrics like modularity and centrality to coastal sediment dynamics, exemplified here using Ameland Inlet in the Netherlands. We divide the study site into geomorphic cells (i.e., nodes) and then quantify sediment transport between these cells (i.e., links) using a numerical model. The system of cells and fluxes between them is then schematized in a network described by an adjacency matrix. Network metrics like link density, asymmetry, and modularity quantify system‐wide connectivity. The degree, strength, and centrality of individual nodes identify key locations and pathways throughout the system. For instance, these metrics indicate that under strictly tidal forcing, sand originating near shore predominantly bypasses Ameland Inlet via the inlet channels, whereas sand on the deeper foreshore mainly bypasses the inlet via the outer delta shoals. Connectivity analysis can also inform practical management decisions about where to place sand nourishments, the fate of nourishment sand, or how to monitor locations vulnerable to perturbations. There are still open challenges associated with quantifying connectivity at varying space and time scales and the development of connectivity metrics specific to coastal systems. Nonetheless, connectivity provides a promising technique for predicting the response of our coasts to climate change and the human adaptations it provokes.

Ameland Inlet↗
USGS2026

Hyperspectral narrowband imaging spectroscopy: A new paradigm for Earth observation

This editorial introduces the Special Issue entitled “Hyperspectral Narrowband Imaging Spectroscopy: A New Paradigm for Earth Observation” in the August 2026 issue of Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing (PE&RS), the flagship journal of the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS). This volume represents the fourth dedicated hyperspectral special issue published in PE&RS, following earlier contributions by Thenkabail et al. (2025, 2024a, 2024b), and continues ASPRS’s commitment to advancing cutting‑edge imaging spectroscopy research and its applications across Earth system science. Remote sensing is undergoing one of the most profound transformations in its history. The emergence of hyperspectral narrowband (HNB) imaging spectroscopy data, capable of acquiring hundreds of contiguous, narrow spectral bands, has shifted the discipline from observing Earth in a handful of broad spectral windows to capturing continuous spectral signatures of the Planet. This transition marks a decisive break from the multispectral paradigm that has dominated satellite remote sensing for nearly five decades, driven by the advent of new orbital imaging spectrometers such as EnMAP, PRISMA, and NASA’s EMIT, and by the forthcoming Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) mission ((Pires Silva et al., 2026; Bourriz et al., 2025; Thenkabail et al., 2025; Chabrillat et al., 2024; Aneece et al., 2024; Dave et al., 2024; Thenkabail et al., 2024a; Thenkabail et al., 2024b; Thenkabail, 2024a; Thenkabail, 2024b; Thompson et al., 2022; Kokaly et al., 2022; Aneece & Thenkabail, 2022; Cawse Nicholson et al., 2021; Guanter et al., 2021; Vangi et al., 2021; Thenkabail et al., 2021). These missions (e.g., Table 1) deliver unprecedented spectral fidelity, improved signal to noise ratios, and global coverage capabilities, enabling a new era of quantitative, spectroscopy based Earth observation. Where multispectral broadbands (MBBs) provide only a few discrete measurements along the electromagnetic spectrum, HNB systems deliver rich, diagnostic information that enables scientists to characterize Earth’s surface with unprecedented biochemical, biophysical, and structural detail (Figure 1a, 1b). The implications for environmental monitoring, agriculture, water resources, and mineral exploration are profound. Several overarching themes emerge: • Spectral fidelity matters. The ability to preserve subtle absorption features is essential for mineral mapping, vegetation trait retrieval, and biochemical modeling. • AI and deep learning are indispensable. From destriping to classification, modern analytics must be scalable, label‑efficient, and capable of exploiting the full spectral–spatial richness of HNB data. • Physics‑based and data‑driven approaches must converge. Radiative transfer models such as PROSAIL, enhanced with localized soil parameterizations, remain foundational for biophysical retrievals and model‑based inference. • Dimensionality reduction and feature extraction are critical. Techniques such as L1‑ISOMAP demonstrate that intelligent manifold learning can unlock the structure of fused, high‑dimensional datasets. • Next‑generation architectures must be interactive and multimodal. ICTNet exemplifies the future of hyperspectral classification: hybrid, synergistic, and capable of modeling both local textures and global spectral dependencies.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing (PE↗
USGS2006

The changing shapes of active volcanoes: History, evolution, and future challenges for volcano geodesy

At the very heart of volcanology lies the search for the 'plumbing systems' that form the inner workings of Earth’s active volcanoes. By their very nature, however, the magmatic reservoirs and conduits that underlie these active volcanic systems are elusive; mostly they are observable only through circumstantial evidence, using indirect, and often ambiguous, surficial measurements. Of course, we can infer much about these systems from geologic investigation of materials brought to the surface by eruptions and of the exposed roots of ancient volcanoes. But how can we study the magmatic processes that are occurring beneath Earth’s active volcanoes? What are the geometry, scale, physical, and chemical characteristics of magma reservoirs? Can we infer the dynamics of magma transport? Can we use this information to better forecast the future behavior of volcanoes? These questions comprise some of the most fundamental, recurring themes of modern research in volcanology. The field of volcano geodesy is uniquely situated to provide critical observational constraints on these problems. For the past decade, armed with a new array of technological innovations, equipped with powerful computers, and prepared with new analytical tools, volcano geodesists have been poised to make significant advances in our fundamental understanding of the behavior of active volcanic systems. The purpose of this volume is to highlight some of these recent advances, particularly in the collection and interpretation of geodetic data from actively deforming volcanoes. The 18 papers that follow report on new geodetic data that offer valuable insights into eruptive activity and magma transport; they present new models and modeling strategies that have the potential to greatly increase understanding of magmatic, hydrothermal, and volcano-tectonic processes; and they describe innovative techniques for collecting geodetic measurements from remote, poorly accessible, or hazardous volcanoes. To provide a proper context for these studies, we offer a short review of the evolution of volcano geodesy, as well as a case study that highlights recent advances in the field by comparing the geodetic response to recent eruptive episodes at Mount St. Helens. Finally, we point out a few areas that continue to challenge the volcano geodesy community, some of which are addressed by the papers that follow and which undoubtedly will be the focus of future research for years to come.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2002

U.S. Geological Survey spatial data access

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has done a progress review on improving access to its spatial data holdings over the Web. The USGS EROS Data Center has created three major Web-based interfaces to deliver spatial data to the general public; they are Earth Explorer, the Seamless Data Distribution System (SDDS), and the USGS Web Mapping Portal. Lessons were learned in developing these systems, and various resources were needed for their implementation. The USGS serves as a fact-finding agency in the U.S. Government that collects, monitors, analyzes, and provides scientific information about natural resource conditions and issues. To carry out its mission, the USGS has created and managed spatial data since its inception. Originally relying on paper maps, the USGS now uses advanced technology to produce digital representations of the Earth’s features. The spatial products of the USGS include both source and derivative data. Derivative datasets include Digital Orthophoto Quadrangles (DOQ), Digital Elevation Models, Digital Line Graphs, land-cover Digital Raster Graphics, and the seamless National Elevation Dataset. These products, created with automated processes, use aerial photographs, satellite images, or other cartographic information such as scanned paper maps as source data. With Earth Explorer, users can search multiple inventories through metadata queries and can browse satellite and DOQ imagery. They can place orders and make payment through secure credit card transactions. Some USGS spatial data can be accessed with SDDS. The SDDS uses an ArcIMS map service interface to identify the user’s areas of interest and determine the output format; it allows the user to either download the actual spatial data directly for small areas or place orders for larger areas to be delivered on media. The USGS Web Mapping Portal provides views of national and international datasets through an ArcIMS map service interface. In addition, the map portal posts news about new map services available from the USGS, many simultaneously published on the Environmental Systems Research Institute Geography Network. These three information systems use new software tools and expanded hardware to meet the requirements of the users. The systems are designed to handle the required workload and are relatively easy to enhance and maintain. The software tools give users a high level of functionality and help the system conform to industry standards. The hardware and software architecture is designed to handle the large amounts of spatial data and Internet traffic required by the information systems. Last, customer support was needed to answer questions, monitor e-mail, and report customer problems.

Journal of Geospatial Engineering↗
USGS2003

Hydromechanical coupling in geologic processes

Earth's porous crust and the fluids within it are intimately linked through their mechanical effects on each other. This paper presents an overview of such "hydromechanical" coupling and examines current understanding of its role in geologic processes. An outline of the theory of hydromechanics and rheological models for geologic deformation is included to place various analytical approaches in proper context and to provide an introduction to this broad topic for nonspecialists. Effects of hydromechanical coupling are ubiquitous in geology, and can be local and short-lived or regional and very long-lived. Phenomena such as deposition and erosion, tectonism, seismicity, earth tides, and barometric loading produce strains that tend to alter fluid pressure. Resulting pressure perturbations can be dramatic, and many so-called "anomalous" pressures appear to have been created in this manner. The effects of fluid pressure on crustal mechanics are also profound. Geologic media deform and fail largely in response to effective stress, or total stress minus fluid pressure. As a result, fluid pressures control compaction, decompaction, and other types of deformation, as well as jointing, shear failure, and shear slippage, including events that generate earthquakes. By controlling deformation and failure, fluid pressures also regulate states of stress in the upper crust. Advances in the last 80 years, including theories of consolidation, transient groundwater flow, and poroelasticity, have been synthesized into a reasonably complete conceptual framework for understanding and describing hydromechanical coupling. Full coupling in two or three dimensions is described using force balance equations for deformation coupled with a mass conservation equation for fluid flow. Fully coupled analyses allow hypothesis testing and conceptual model development. However, rigorous application of full coupling is often difficult because (1) the rheological behavior of geologic media is complex and poorly understood and (2) the architecture, mechanical properties and boundary conditions, and deformation history of most geologic systems are not well known. Much of what is known about hydromechanical processes in geologic systems is derived from simpler analyses that ignore certain aspects of solid-fluid coupling. The simplifications introduce error, but more complete analyses usually are not warranted. Hydromechanical analyses should thus be interpreted judiciously, with an appreciation for their limitations. Innovative approaches to hydromechanical modeling and obtaining critical data may circumvent some current limitations and provide answers to remaining questions about crustal processes and fluid behavior in the crust.

Hydrogeology Journal↗
USGS2000

Crustal deformation associated with glacial fluctuations in the eastern Chugach Mountains, Alaska

The changes of the solid Earth in south central Alaska in response to two major glacial fluctuations on different temporal and spatial scales have been estimated and we evaluated their influence on the stress state and ongoing tectonic deformation of the region. During the recent (1993–1995) Bering Glacier surge, a large transfer of ice from the Bagley Ice Field to the Bering Glacier terminus region occurred. We estimated the elastic displacement of the solid Earth due to ice mass redistribution from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at sites near the surging glacier. We can account for these displacements by transfer of an ice volume of about 14 km 3 from the surge reservoir area to the terminus region. We examined the background seismicity (M L ≥ 2.5) before, during, and after the surge. We found that the occurrence of small earthquakes (M L ≤ 4.0) in the surge reservoir region increased during the surge time interval possibly in response to a decrease in ice mass. This suggests that a small decrease in the vertical stress, σ 3 , could be enough to modulate the occurrence of small, shallow earthquakes in this dominantly thrust fault setting. During this century the southern Alaska coastal glaciers have been undergoing an overall decrease in volume. Based on our compilation of changes in the extent and thickness of the coastal glaciers between the Malaspina and Bering, we calculated surface displacements due to the Earth's viscoelastic response to annual thinning and to the cumulative retreat over the last 100 years. The uplift of the region due to an average annual thinning rate of 1–6 m/yr in the ablation region is 1–12 mm/yr. For our reference model with a viscosity of 5×10 19 Pa s for depths between ≈ 40 and 200 km the total viscoelastic response due to the retreat over the last century may be as much as a couple of meters within the coastal ablation zone near Icy Bay. The maximum decrease in σv between 0 and 10 km was ≈ 1.0 MPa, which is significant in relation to the stress drops in recent earthquakes (≈ 2 to 10 MPa) but small in relation to the estimated tectonic stress magnitude. Therefore the occurrence of an earthquake such as the St. Elias (1979, M S = 7.2) may have been advanced in time; however, most of the ongoing stress accumulation would be primarily due to tectonic forces.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Analysis of simulated advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection (ASTER) radiometer data of the Iron Hill, Colorado, study area for mapping lithologies

The advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection (ASTER) radiometer was designed to record reflected energy in nine channels with 15 or 30 m resolution, including stereoscopic images, and emitted energy in five channels with 90 m resolution from the NASA Earth Observing System AMI platform. A simulated ASTER data set was produced for the Iron Hill, Colorado, study area by resampling calibrated, registered airborne visible/infrared imaging spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, and thermal infrared multispectral scanner (TIMS) data to the appropriate spatial and spectral parameters. A digital elevation model was obtained to simulate ASTER-derived topographic data. The main lithologic units in the area are granitic rocks and felsite into which a carbonatite stock and associated alkalic igneous rocks were intruded; these rocks are locally covered by Jurassic sandstone, Tertiary rhyolitic tuff, and colluvial deposits. Several methods were evaluated for mapping the main lithologic units, including the unsupervised classification and spectral curve-matching techniques. In the five thermalinfrared (TIR) channels, comparison of the results of linear spectral unmixing and unsupervised classification with published geologic maps showed that the main lithologic units were mapped, but large areas with moderate to dense tree cover were not mapped in the TIR data. Compared to TIMS data, simulated ASTER data permitted slightly less discrimination in the mafic alkalic rock series, and carbonatite was not mapped in the TIMS nor in the simulated ASTER TIR data. In the nine visible and near-infrared channels, unsupervised classification did not yield useful results, but both the spectral linear unmixing and the matched filter techniques produced useful results, including mapping calcitic and dolomitic carbonatite exposures, travertine in hot spring deposits, kaolinite in argillized sandstone and tuff, and muscovite in sericitized granite and felsite, as well as commonly occurring illite/muscovite. However, the distinction made in AVIRIS data between calcite and dolomite was not consistently feasible in the simulated ASTER data. Comparison of the lithologie information produced by spectral analysis of the simulated ASTER data to a photogeologic interpretation of a simulated ASTER color image illustrates the high potential of spectral analysis of ASTER data to geologic interpretation.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS1998

Earthquake triggering by transient and static deformations

Observational evidence for both static and transient near-field and far-field triggered seismicity are explained in terms of a frictional instability model, based on a single degree of freedom spring-slider system and rate- and state-dependent frictional constitutive equations. In this study a triggered earthquake is one whose failure time has been advanced by Δ t (clock advance) due to a stress perturbation. Triggering stress perturbations considered include square-wave transients and step functions, analogous to seismic waves and coseismic static stress changes, respectively. Perturbations are superimposed on a constant background stressing rate which represents the tectonic stressing rate. The normal stress is assumed to be constant. Approximate, closed-form solutions of the rate-and-state equations are derived for these triggering and background loads, building on the work of Dieterich [1992, 1994]. These solutions can be used to simulate the effects of static and transient stresses as a function of amplitude, onset time t 0 , and in the case of square waves, duration. The accuracies of the approximate closed-form solutions are also evaluated with respect to the full numerical solution and t 0 . The approximate solutions underpredict the full solutions, although the difference decreases as t 0 approaches the end of the earthquake cycle. The relationship between Δ t and t 0 differs for transient and static loads: a static stress step imposed late in the cycle causes less clock advance than an equal step imposed earlier, whereas a later applied transient causes greater clock advance than an equal one imposed earlier. For equal Δ t , transient amplitudes must be greater than static loads by factors of several tens to hundreds depending on t 0 . We show that the rate-and-state model requires that the total slip at failure is a constant, regardless of the loading history. Thus a static load applied early in the cycle, or a transient applied at any time, reduces the stress at the initiation of failure, whereas static loads that are applied sufficiently late raise it. Rate-and-state friction predictions differ markedly from those based on Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) in which Δ t equals the amplitude of the static stress change divided by the background stressing rate. The ΔCFS model assumes a stress failure threshold, while the rate-and-state equations require a slip failure threshold. The complete rate-and-state equations predict larger Δ t than the ΔCFS model does for static stress steps at small t 0 , and smaller Δ t than the ΔCFS model for stress steps at large t 0 . The ΔCFS model predicts nonzero Δ t only for transient loads that raise the stress to failure stress levels during the transient. In contrast, the rate-and-state model predicts nonzero Δ t for smaller loads, and triggered failure may occur well after the transient is finished. We consider heuristically the effects of triggering on a population of faults, as these effects might be evident in seismicity data. Triggering is manifest as an initial increase in seismicity rate that may be followed by a quiescence or by a return to the background rate. Available seismicity data are insufficient to discriminate whether triggered earthquakes are “new” or clock advanced. However, if triggering indeed results from advancing the failure time of inevitable earthquakes, then our modeling suggests that a quiescence always follows transient triggering and that the duration of increased seismicity also cannot exceed the duration of a triggering transient load. Quiescence follows static triggering only if the population of available faults is finite.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗