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USGS2002

Geodetic imaging: Reservoir monitoring using satellite interferometry

Fluid fluxes within subsurface reservoirs give rise to surface displacements, particularly over periods of a year or more. Observations of such deformation provide a powerful tool for mapping fluid migration within the Earth, providing new insights into reservoir dynamics. In this paper we use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) range changes to infer subsurface fluid volume strain at the Coso geothermal field. Furthermore, we conduct a complete model assessment, using an iterative approach to compute model parameter resolution and covariance matrices. The method is a generalization of a Lanczos-based technique which allows us to include fairly general regularization, such as roughness penalties. We find that we can resolve quite detailed lateral variations in volume strain both within the reservoir depth range (0.4-2.5 km) and below the geothermal production zone (2.5-5.0 km). The fractional volume change in all three layers of the model exceeds the estimated model parameter uncertainly by a factor of two or more. In the reservoir depth interval (0.4-2.5 km), the predominant volume change is associated with northerly and westerly oriented faults and their intersections. However, below the geothermal production zone proper [the depth range 2.5-5.0 km], there is the suggestion that both north- and northeast-trending faults may act as conduits for fluid flow.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2002

Seismic anisotropy and mantle creep in young orogens

Seismic anisotropy provides evidence for the physical state and tectonic evolution of the lithosphere. We discuss the origin of anisotropy at various depths, and relate it to tectonic stress, geotherms and rheology. The anisotropy of the uppermost mantle is controlled by the orthorhombic mineral olivine, and may result from ductile deformation, dynamic recrystallization or annealing. Anisotropy beneath young orogens has been measured for the seismic phase Pn that propagates in the uppermost mantle. This anisotropy is interpreted as being caused by deformation during the most recent thermotectonic event, and thus provides information on the process of mountain building. Whereas tectonic stress and many structural features in the upper crust are usually orientated perpendicular to the structural axis of mountain belts, Pn anisotropy is aligned parallel to the structural axis. We interpret this to indicate mountain-parallel ductile (i.e. creeping) deformation in the uppermost mantle that is a consequence of mountain-perpendicular compressive stresses. The preferred orientation of the fast axes of some anisotropic minerals, such as olivine, is known to be in the creep direction, a consequence of the anisotropy of strength and viscosity of orientated minerals. In order to explain the anisotropy of the mantle beneath young orogens we extend the concept of crustal 'escape' (or 'extrusion') tectonics to the uppermost mantle. We present rheological model calculations to support this hypothesis. Mountain-perpendicular horizontal stress (determined in the upper crust) and mountain-parallel seismic anisotropy (in the uppermost mantle) require a zone of ductile decoupling in the middle or lower crust of young mountain belts. Examples for stress and mountain-parallel Pn anisotropy are given for Tibet, the Alpine chains, and young mountain ranges in the Americas. Finally, we suggest a simple model for initiating mountain parallel creep.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2002

Strike-slip earthquakes in the oceanic lithosphere: Observations of exceptionally high apparent stress

The radiated energies, E S , and seismic moments, M 0 , for 942 globally distributed earthquakes that occurred between 1987 to 1998 are examined to find the earthquakes with the highest apparent stresses (τ a =μ E S / M 0 , where μ is the modulus of rigidity). The globally averaged τ a for shallow earthquakes in all tectonic environments and seismic regions is 0.3 MPa. However, the subset of 49 earthquakes with the highest apparent stresses (τ a greater than about 5.0 MPa) is dominated almost exclusively by strike-slip earthquakes that occur in oceanic environments. These earthquakes are all located in the depth range 7–29 km in the upper mantle of the young oceanic lithosphere. Many of these events occur near plate-boundary triple junctions where there appear to be high rates of intraplate deformation. Indeed, the small rapidly deforming Gorda Plate accounts for 10 of the 49 high-τ a events. The depth distribution of τ a , which shows peak values somewhat greater than 25 MPa in the depth range 20–25 km, suggests that upper bounds on this parameter are a result of the strength of the oceanic lithosphere. A recently proposed envelope for apparent stress, derived by taking 6 per cent of the strength inferred from laboratory experiments for young (less than 30 Ma) deforming oceanic lithosphere, agrees well with the upper-bound envelope of apparent stresses over the depth range 5–30 km. The corresponding depth-dependent shear strength for young oceanic lithosphere attains a peak value of about 575 MPa at a depth of 21 km and then diminishes rapidly as the depth increases. In addition to their high apparent stresses, which suggest that the strength of the young oceanic lithosphere is highest in the depth range 10–30 km, our set of high-τ a earthquakes show other features that constrain the nature of the forces that cause interplate motion. First, our set of events is divided roughly equally between intraplate and transform faulting with similar depth distributions of τ a for the two types. Secondly, many of the intraplate events have focal mechanisms with the T -axes that are normal to the nearest ridge crest or subduction zone and P -axes that are normal to the proximate transform fault. These observations suggest that forces associated with the reorganization of plate boundaries play an important role in causing high-τ a earthquakes inside oceanic plates. Extant transform boundaries may be misaligned with current plate motion. To accommodate current plate motion, the pre-existing plate boundaries would have to be subjected to large horizontal transform push forces. A notable example of this is the triple junction near which the second large aftershock of the 1992 April Cape Mendocino, California, sequence occurred. Alternatively, subduction zone resistance may be enhanced by the collision of a buoyant lithosphere, a process that also markedly increases the horizontal stress. A notable example of this is the Aleutian Trench near which large events occurred in the Gulf of Alaska in late 1987 and the 1998 March Balleny Sea M = 8.2 earthquake within the Antarctic Plate.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2003

Gaussian statistics for palaeomagnetic vectors

With the aim of treating the statistics of palaeomagnetic directions and intensities jointly and consistently, we represent the mean and the variance of palaeomagnetic vectors, at a particular site and of a particular polarity, by a probability density function in a Cartesian three-space of orthogonal magnetic-field components consisting of a single (unimoda) non-zero mean, spherically-symmetrical (isotropic) Gaussian function. For palaeomagnetic data of mixed polarities, we consider a bimodal distribution consisting of a pair of such symmetrical Gaussian functions, with equal, but opposite, means and equal variances. For both the Gaussian and bi-Gaussian distributions, and in the spherical three-space of intensity, inclination, and declination, we obtain analytical expressions for the marginal density functions, the cumulative distributions, and the expected values and variances for each spherical coordinate (including the angle with respect to the axis of symmetry of the distributions). The mathematical expressions for the intensity and off-axis angle are closed-form and especially manageable, with the intensity distribution being Rayleigh-Rician. In the limit of small relative vectorial dispersion, the Gaussian (bi-Gaussian) directional distribution approaches a Fisher (Bingham) distribution and the intensity distribution approaches a normal distribution. In the opposite limit of large relative vectorial dispersion, the directional distributions approach a spherically-uniform distribution and the intensity distribution approaches a Maxwell distribution. We quantify biases in estimating the properties of the vector field resulting from the use of simple arithmetic averages, such as estimates of the intensity or the inclination of the mean vector, or the variances of these quantities. With the statistical framework developed here and using the maximum-likelihood method, which gives unbiased estimates in the limit of large data numbers, we demonstrate how to formulate the inverse problem, and how to estimate the mean and variance of the magnetic vector field, even when the data consist of mixed combinations of directions and intensities. We examine palaeomagnetic secular-variation data from Hawaii and Re??union, and although these two sites are on almost opposite latitudes, we find significant differences in the mean vector and differences in the local vectorial variances, with the Hawaiian data being particularly anisotropic. These observations are inconsistent with a description of the mean field as being a simple geocentric axial dipole and with secular variation being statistically symmetrical with respect to reflection through the equatorial plane. Finally, our analysis of palaeomagnetic acquisition data from the 1960 Kilauea flow in Hawaii and the Holocene Xitle flow in Mexico, is consistent with the widely held suspicion that directional data are more accurate than intensity data.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2003

Shallow-velocity models at the Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, determined from array analyses of tremor wavefields

The properties of the surface wavefield at Kilauea Volcano are analysed using data from small-aperture arrays of short-period seismometers deployed in and around the Kilauea caldera. Tremor recordings were obtained during two Japan-US cooperative experiments conducted in 1996 and 1997. The seismometers were deployed in three semi-circular arrays with apertures of 300, 300 and 400 m, and a linear array with length of 1680 m. Data are analysed using a spatio-temporal correlation technique well suited for the study of the stationary stochastic wavefields of Rayleigh and Love waves associated with volcanic activity and scattering sources distributed in and around the summit caldera. Spatial autocorrelation coefficients are obtained as a function of frequency and are inverted for the dispersion characteristics of Rayleigh and Love waves using a grid search that seeks phase velocities for which the L-2 norm between data and forward modelling operators is minimized. Within the caldera, the phase velocities of Rayleigh waves range from 1400 to 1800 m s -1 at 1 Hz down to 300-400 m s -1 at 10 Hz, and the phase velocities of Love waves range from 2600 to 400 m s -1 within the same frequency band. Outside the caldera, Rayleigh wave velocities range from 1800 to 1600 m s -1 at 1 Hz down to 260-360 m s -1 at 10 Hz, and Love wave velocities range from 600 to 150 m s -1 within the same frequency band. The dispersion curves are inverted for velocity structure beneath each array, assuming these dispersions represent the fundamental modes of Rayleigh and Love waves. The velocity structures observed at different array sites are consistent with results from a recent 3-D traveltime tomography of the caldera region, and point to a marked velocity discontinuity associated with the southern caldera boundary.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2003

A shallow fault-zone structure illuminated by trapped waves in the Karadere-Duzce branch of the North Anatolian Fault, western Turkey

We discuss the subsurface structure of the Karadere-Duzce branch of the North Anatolian Fault based on analysis of a large seismic data set recorded by a local PASSCAL network in the 6 months following the Mw = 7.4 1999 Izmit earthquake. Seismograms observed at stations located in the immediate vicinity of the rupture zone show motion amplification and long-period oscillations in both P- and S-wave trains that do not exist in nearby off-fault stations. Examination of thousands of waveforms reveals that these characteristics are commonly generated by events that are well outside the fault zone. The anomalous features in fault-zone seismograms produced by events not necessarily in the fault may be referred to generally as fault-zone-related site effects. The oscillatory shear wave trains after the direct S arrival in these seismograms are analysed as trapped waves propagating in a low-velocity fault-zone layer. The time difference between the S arrival and trapped waves group does not grow systematically with increasing source-receiver separation along the fault. These observations imply that the trapping of seismic energy in the Karadere-Duzce rupture zone is generated by a shallow fault-zone layer. Traveltime analysis and synthetic waveform modelling indicate that the depth of the trapping structure is approximately 3-4 km. The synthetic waveform modelling indicates further that the shallow trapping structure has effective waveguide properties consisting of thickness of the order of 100 m, a velocity decrease relative to the surrounding rock of approximately 50 per cent and an S-wave quality factor of 10-15. The results are supported by large 2-D and 3-D parameter space studies and are compatible with recent analyses of trapped waves in a number of other faults and rupture zones. The inferred shallow trapping structure is likely to be a common structural element of fault zones and may correspond to the top part of a flower-type structure. The motion amplification associated with fault-zone-related site effects increases the seismic shaking hazard near fault-zone structures. The effect may be significant since the volume of sources capable of generating motion amplification in shallow trapping structures is large.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2003

A numerical simulation of magma motion, crustal deformation, and seismic radiation associated with volcanic eruptions

The finite difference method is used to calculate the magma dynamics, seismic radiation, and crustal deformation associated with a volcanic eruption. The model geometry consists of a cylindrical reservoir and narrow cylindrical conduit embedded in a homogeneous crust. We consider two models of eruption. In the first model, a lid caps the vent and the magma is overpressurized prior to the eruption. The eruption is triggered by the instantaneous removal of the lid, at which point the exit pressure becomes equal to the atmospheric pressure. In the second model, a plug at the reservoir outlet allows pressurization of only the magmatic fluid in the reservoir before the eruption. Magma transfer between the reservoir and conduit is triggered by the instantaneous removal of the plug, and the eruption occurs when the pressure at the conduit orifice exceeds the material strength of the lid capping the vent. In both models, magma dynamics are expressed by the equations of mass and momentum conservation in a compressible fluid, in which fluid expansion associated with depressurization is accounted for by a constitutive law relating pressure and density. Crustal motions are calculated from the equations of elastodynamics. The fluid and solid are dynamically coupled by applying the continuity of wall velocities and normal stresses across the conduit and reservoir boundaries. Free slip is allowed at the fluid-solid boundary. Both models predict the gradual depletion of the magma reservoir, which causes crustal deformation observed as a long-duration dilatational signal. Superimposed on this very-long-period (VLP) signal generated by mass transport are long-period (LP) oscillations of the magma reservoir and conduit excited by the acoustic resonance of the reservoir-conduit system during the eruption. The volume of the reservoir, vent size, and magma properties control the duration of VLP waves and dominant periods of LP oscillations. The second model predicts that when the magmatic fluid reaches the vent, a high-pressure pulse occurs at this location in accordance with the basic theory of compressible fluid dynamics. This abrupt pressure increase just beneath the vent is consistent with observed seismograms in which pulse-like Rayleigh waves excited by a shallow source are dominant. The strength of the lid plays an important role in the character of the seismograms and in defining the type of eruption observed.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2003

Post-seismic relaxation theory on laterally heterogeneous viscoelastic model

Investigation was carried out into the problem of relaxation of a laterally heterogeneous viscoelastic Earth following an impulsive moment release event. The formal solution utilizes a semi-analytic solution for post-seismic deformation on a laterally homogeneous Earth constructed from viscoelastic normal modes, followed by application of mode coupling theory to derive the response on the aspherical Earth. The solution is constructed in the Laplace transform domain using the correspondence principle and is valid for any linear constitutive relationship between stress and strain. The specific implementation described in this paper is a semi-analytic discretization method which assumes isotropic elastic structure and a Maxwell constitutive relation. It accounts for viscoelastic-gravitational coupling under lateral variations in elastic parameters and viscosity. For a given viscoelastic structure and minimum wavelength scale, the computational effort involved with the numerical algorithm is proportional to the volume of the laterally heterogeneous region. Examples are presented of the calculation of post-seismic relaxation with a shallow, laterally heterogeneous volume following synthetic impulsive seismic events, and they illustrate the potentially large effect of regional 3-D heterogeneities on regional deformation patterns.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2020

Coseismic and post-seismic gravity disturbance induced by seismic sources using a 2.5-D spectral element method

I present a prescription for computing free-air coseismic and post-seismic gravity changes induced by seismic sources in a viscoelastic earth model. I assume a spherical earth geometry and a 2.5-D calculation, that is, 3-D motions that satisfy the equations of quasi-static equilibrium on a 2-D viscoelastic structure. The prescription permits application to regional gravity computations where a 2-D structure adequately represents the structural heterogeneity. I use a hybrid approach where deformation is computed on a discretized domain and the resulting density perturbations are expanded with spherical harmonics to produce the free-air gravity field. Starting with a solution to the equations of quasi-static displacements in the Laplace transform domain for a given dislocation source, I solve Poisson’s equation using Lagrangian interpolation on spectral element nodes to compute the required deformation quantities that contribute to free-air gravity. A numerical inverse Laplace transform then yields time domain results. This methodology is tested with analytic solutions on a spherically stratified viscoelastic structure, then applied to evaluate the effect of a descending slab of relatively high viscosity on post-seismic gravity in a megathrust faulting setting.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2020

Activation of optimally and unfavourably oriented faults in a uniform local stress field during the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma, sequence

The orientations of faults activated relative to the local principal stress directions can provide insights into the role of pore pressure changes in induced earthquake sequences. Here, we examine the 2011 M 5.7 Prague earthquake sequence that was induced by nearby wastewater disposal. We estimate the local principal compressive stress direction near the rupture as inferred from shear wave splitting measurements at spatial resolutions as small as 750 m. We find that the dominant azimuth observed is parallel to previous estimates of the regional compressive stress with some secondary azimuths oriented subparallel to the strike of the major fault structures. From an extended catalogue, we map ten distinct fault segments activated during the sequence that exhibit a wide array of orientations. We assess whether the five near-vertical fault planes are optimally oriented to fail in the determined stress field. We find that only two of the fault planes, including the M 5.7 main shock fault, are optimally oriented. Both the M 4.8 foreshock and M 4.8 aftershock occur on fault planes that deviate 20–29° from the optimal orientation for slip. Our results confirm that induced event sequences can occur on faults not optimally oriented for failure in the local stress field. The results suggest elevated pore fluid pressures likely induced failure along several of the faults activated in the 2011 Prague sequence.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2020

3-D joint geodetic and strong-motion finite fault inversion of the 2008 May 12, Wenchuan, China Earthquake

We present a source inversion of the 2008 Wenchuan, China earthquake, using strong-motion waveforms and geodetic offsets together with three-dimensional synthetic ground motions. We applied the linear multiple time window technique considering geodetic and dynamic Green's functions computed with the finite element method and the reciprocity and Strain Green’s Tensor formalism. All ground motion estimates, valid up to 1 Hz, accounted for three-dimensional effects, including the topography and the geometry of the Beichuan and Pengguan faults. Our joint inversion has a higher moment (M0) than a purely geodetic inversion and the slip distribution presents differences when compared to one-dimensional model source inversions. The moment is estimated to be M0=1.2x1021 Nm, slightly larger than other works. Our results show that considering a complex 3D structure reduces the size of large areas of 10 m slip or greater by distributing it in wider zones, with reduced slips, in the central portion of the Beichuan and the Pengguan faults. Finally, we compare our source with a relocated aftershock catalog and conclude that the 4-5 m slip contours approximately bound the absence or presence of aftershocks.

Wenchuan↗
USGS2020

Geometric controls on megathrust earthquakes

The role of subduction zone geometry in the nucleation and propagation of great-sized earthquake ruptures is an important topic for earthquake hazard, since knowing how big an earthquake can be on a given fault is fundamentally important. Past studies have shown subducting bathymetric features (e.g. ridges, fracture zones, seamount chains) may arrest a propagating rupture. Other studies have correlated the occurrence of great-sized earthquakes with flat megathrusts and homogenous stresses over large distances. It remains unclear, however, how subduction zone geometry and the potential for great-sized earthquakes ( M 8+) are quantifiably linked—or indeed whether they can be. Here, we examine the potential role of subduction zone geometry in limiting earthquake rupture by mapping the planarity of seismogenic zones in the Slab2 subduction zone geometry database. We build from the observation that historical great-sized earthquakes have preferentially occurred where the surrounding megathrust is broadly planar, and we use this relationship to search for geometrically similar features elsewhere in subduction zones worldwide. Assuming geometry exerts a primary control on earthquake propagation and termination, we estimate the potential size distribution of large ( M 7+) earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude along global subduction faults based on geometrical features alone. Our results suggest that most subduction zones are capable of hosting great-sized earthquakes over much of their area. Many bathymetric features previously identified as barriers are indistinguishable from the surrounding megathrust from the perspective of slab curvature, meaning that they either do not play an important role in arresting earthquake rupture or that their influence on slab geometry at depth is not resolvable at the spatial scale of our subduction zone geometry models.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2020

Seismicity induced by massive wastewater injection near Puerto Gaitán, Colombia

Seven years after the beginning of a massive wastewater injection project in eastern Colombia, local earthquake activity increased significantly. The field operator and the Colombian Geological Survey immediately reinforced the monitoring of the area. Our analysis of the temporal evolution of the seismic and injection data together with our knowledge of the geological parameters of the region indicate that the surge of seismicity is being induced by the re-injection of produced water into the same three producing reservoirs. Earthquake activity began on known faults once disposal rates had reached a threshold of ∼2 × 10 6 m 3 of water per month. The average reservoir pressure had remained constant at 7.6 MPa after several years of production, sustained by a large, active aquifer. Surface injection pressures in the seismically active areas remain below 8.3 MPa, a value large enough to activate some of the faults. Since faults are mapped throughout the region and many do not have seismicity on them, we conclude that the existence of known faults is not the only control on whether earthquakes are generated. Stress conditions of these faults are open to future studies. Earthquakes are primarily found in four clusters, located near faults mapped by the operator. The hypocentres reveal vertical planes with orientations consistent with focal mechanisms of these events. Stress inversion of the focal mechanisms gives a maximum compression in the direction ENE-WSW, which is in agreement with borehole breakout measurements. Since the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes are consistent with the tectonic stress regime, we can conclude that the seismicity is resulting from the activation of critically stressed faults. Slip was progressive and seismic activity reached a peak before declining to few events per month. The decline in seismicity suggests that most of the stress has been relieved on the main faults. The magnitude of a large majority of the recorded earthquakes was lower than 4, as the pore pressure disturbance did not reach the mapped large faults whose activation might have resulted in larger magnitude earthquakes. Our study shows that a good knowledge of the local fault network and conditions of stress is of paramount importance when planning a massive water disposal program. These earthquakes indicate that while faults provide an opportunity to dispose produced water at an economically attractive volume–pressure ratio, the possibility of induced seismicity must also be considered.

Puerto Gaitan↗
USGS2020

Towards understanding relationships between atmospheric pressure variations and long-period horizontal seismic data: A case study

Variations in atmospheric pressure have long been known to introduce noise in long-period (>10 s) seismic records. This noise can overwhelm signals of interest such as normal modes and surface waves. Generally, this noise is most pronounced on the horizontal components where it arises due to tilting of the seismometer in response to changes in atmospheric pressure. Several studies have suggested methodologies for correcting unwanted pressure-induced noise using collocated microbarograph records. However, how applicable these corrections are to varying geologic settings and installation types (e.g. vault versus post-hole) is unclear. Using coefficients obtained by solving for the residuals of these corrections, we can empirically determine the sensitivity of instruments in a specific location to the influences of pressure. To better understand how long-period, pressure-induced noise changes with time and emplacement, we examine horizontal seismic records along with barometric pressure at five different Global Seismographic Network stations, all with multiple broadband seismometers. We also analyse three Streckeisen STS-2 broadband seismometers, which are collocated with a microbarograph, at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory. We observe periods of high magnitude-squared-coherence (γ 2 -coherence; γ 2 > 0.8) between the seismic and pressure signals which fluctuate through time, frequency, and even between seismic instruments in the same vault. These observations suggest that these tilt-generated signals are highly sensitive to very local (<10 m) site effects. However, we find that in cases where instruments are not located at a large depth (<100 m), the pressure-induced noise is polarized in a nearly constant direction that is consistent with local topographic features or the geometry of the vault. We also find that borehole instruments at a large depth (>100 m) appear to be unaffected by pressure-loading mechanisms outlined by Sorrells (1971) but possibly by Newtonian attraction. Correlating the induced-noise polarization direction with times of high coherence, we work to identify sensors that are ultimately limited by pressure-induced horizontal noise as well as period bands that can benefit from pressure corrections. We find that while the situation is complex, each sensor appears to have its own unique response to pressure. Our findings suggest that we can determine empirical relationships between pressure and induced tilt on a case by case basis.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2020

Quantifying model structural uncertainty using airborne electromagnetic data

The ability to quantify structural uncertainty in geological models that incorporate geophysical data is affected by two primary sources of uncertainty: geophysical parameter uncertainty and uncertainty in the relationship between geophysical parameters and geological properties of interest. Here, we introduce an open-source, trans-dimensional Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) algorithm GeoBIPy—Geophysical Bayesian Inference in Python—for robust uncertainty analysis of time-domain or frequency-domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data. The McMC algorithm provides a robust assessment of geophysical parameter uncertainty using a trans-dimensional approach that lets the AEM data inform the level of model complexity necessary by allowing the number of model layers itself to be an unknown parameter. Additional components of the Bayesian algorithm allow the user to solve for parameters such as data errors or corrections to the measured instrument height above ground. Probability distributions for a user-specified number of lithologic classes are developed through posterior clustering of McMC-derived resistivity models. Estimates of geological model structural uncertainty are thus obtained through the joint probability of geophysical parameter uncertainty and the uncertainty in the definition of each class. Examples of the implementation of this algorithm are presented for both time-domain and frequency-domain AEM data acquired in Nebraska, USA.

Nebraska↗
USGS2020

Apparent earthquake rupture predictability

To what extent can the future evolution of an ongoing earthquake rupture be predicted? This question of fundamental scientific and practical importance has recently been addressed by studies of teleseismic source time functions (STFs) but reaching contrasting conclusions. One study concludes that the initial portion of STFs is the same regardless of magnitude. Another study concludes that the rate at which earthquakes grow increases systematically and strongly with final event magnitudes. Here we show that the latter reported trend is caused by a selection bias towards events with unusually long durations, and by estimates of STF growth made when the STF is already decaying. If these invalid estimates are left out, the trend is no longer present, except during the first few seconds of the smallest events in the dataset, Mw5–6.5, for which the reliability of the STF amplitudes is questionable. Simple synthetic tests show that the observations are consistent with statistically indistinguishable growth of smaller and larger earthquakes. A much weaker trend is apparent among events of comparable duration, but we argue that its significance is not resolvable by the current data. Finally, we propose a nomenclature to facilitate further discussions of earthquake rupture predictability and determinism.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2021

Detailed traveltime tomography and seismic catalog around the 2019 Mw7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake using dense rapid-response seismic data

We derive a detailed earthquake catalogue and V p , V s and V p / V s models for the region around the 2019 M w 6.4 and M w 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence using data recorded by rapid-response, densely deployed sensors following the Ridgecrest main shock and the regional network. The new catalogue spans a 4-month period, starting on 1 June 2019, and it includes nearly 95 000 events detected and located with iterative updates to our velocity models. The final V p and V s models correlate well with surface geology in the top 4 km of the crust and spatial seismicity patterns at depth. Joint interpretation of the derived catalogue, velocity models, and surface geology suggests that (i) a compliant low-velocity zone near the Garlock Fault arrested the M w 7.1 rupture at the southeast end; (ii) a stiff high-velocity zone beneath the Coso Mountains acted as a strong barrier that arrested the rupture at the northwest end and (iii) isolated seismicity on the Garlock Fault accommodated transtensional-stepover strain triggered by the main events. The derived catalogue and velocity models can be useful for multiple future studies, including further analysis of seismicity patterns, derivations of accurate source properties (e.g. focal mechanisms) and simulations of earthquake processes and radiated seismic wavefields.

California↗
USGS2021

Modelling tilt noise caused by atmospheric processes at long periods for several horizontal seismometers at BFO—A reprise

Tilting of the ground due to loading by the variable atmosphere is known to corrupt very long period horizontal seismic records (below 10 mHz) even at the quietest stations. At BFO (Black Forest Observatory, SW-Germany), the opportunity arose to study these disturbances on a variety of simultaneously operated state-of-the-art broad-band sensors. A series of time windows with clear atmospherically caused effects was selected and attempts were made to model these ‘signals’ in a deterministic way. This was done by simultaneously least-squares fitting the locally recorded barometric pressure and its Hilbert transform to the ground accelerations in a bandpass between 100 and 3600 s periods. Variance reductions of up to 97 per cent were obtained. We show our results by combining the ‘specific pressure induced accelerations’ for the two horizontal components of the same sensor as vectors on a horizontal plane, one for direct pressure and one for its Hilbert transform. It turned out that at BFO the direct pressure effects are large, strongly position dependent and largely independent of atmospheric events for instruments installed on piers, while three post-hole sensors are only slightly affected. The infamous ‘cavity effects’ are invoked to be responsible for these large effects on the pier sensors. On the other hand, in the majority of cases all sensors showed very similar magnitudes and directions for the vectors obtained for the regression with the Hilbert transform, but highly variable from event to event especially in direction. Therefore, this direction most certainly has to do with the gradient of the pressure field moving over the station which causes a larger scale deformation of the crust. The observations are very consistent with these two fundamental mechanisms of how fluctuations of atmospheric surface pressure causes tilt noise. The results provide a sound basis for further improvements of the models for these mechanisms. The methods used here can already help to reduce atmospherically induced noise in long-period horizontal seismic records.

Geophysical Journal International↗