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Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

Conference Paper

Soil characteristics and agrichemicals in groundwater of the Midwestern United States

A comprehensive set of soil characteristics were examined to determine the effect of soil on the transport of agrichemicals to groundwater. This paper examines the relation of soil characteristics to concentrations and occurrence nitrate, atrazine, and atrazine residue from 99 wells completed in unconsolidated aquifers across the Midwestern United States. Soil characteristics that determine the rate of water movement were directly related to the occurrence and concentrations of nitrate and atrazine in groundwater. The substantial differences in the relations found among soil characteristics and nitrate and atrazine in groundwater suggest that different processes affect the transformation, adsorption, and transport of these contaminants. A multi-variable analysis determined that the soil characteristics examined explained the amount of variability in concentrations for nitrate (19%), atrazine (33%), and atrazine residue (29%). These results document that, although soils do affect the transport of agrichemicals to groundwater, other factors such as hydrology, land use, and climate must also be considered to understand the occurrence of agrichemicals in groundwater.

Water Science and Technology

The Modern Geological Survey; a model for research, innovation, synthjesis: A USGS perspective

Geological Surveys have long filled the role of providing Earth system science data and knowledge. These functions are increasingly complicated by accelerating environmental and societal change. Here we describe the USGS response to these evolving conditions. Underpinning the USGS approach is the recognition that many of the issues facing the U.S. and the world involve the interaction among geologic, hydrologic, and biologic processes, and how these interactions in turn affect society. Therefore, a goal of USGS planning is fostering interdisciplinary science. This focus is occurring in part through implementation of the recommendations of strategic planning teams. The USGS has also put in place groups building a broad information technology infrastructure as well as identifying and disseminating new Earth science research tools. In addition, the USGS has established an analysis and synthesis center that brings together groups of scientists who address interdisciplinary Earth system science issues. The goal is for these building blocks to evolve towards a comprehensive USGS data and knowledge platform; EarthMAP (Earth Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection). We also recognize that the modern geological survey must be a member of a community of geological surveys contributing data to a global database of 3-dimensional biogeophysical observations and interpretations.

Book chapter

Streamflow and surface-water presence data availability across the conterminous United States: A review for headwater systems

Water is essential for life on Earth, supporting ecosystems, human health, and economic activities. Hydrology relies on observational data, and this paper discusses regional and national datasets for the conterminous United States (CONUS) publicly available as of 2023, focusing on headwaters, defined as first- and second-order streams at 1:24000 scale. It identifies 72 primary and secondary datasets and 11 repositories and argues how better integration and accessibility of hydrological data can improve research. The paper distinguishes between datasets where streamflow was the primary data collection objective and those where it was secondary. This distinction highlights opportunities to consider data from efforts peripheral to hydrology but is still useful for understanding hydrologic conditions. The analysis reveals that out of about 118 000 active and inactive stream observation sites, about 6.6% and 25% are located on first- and second-order streams, respectively. This indicates a substantial data gap for headwater systems, which account for over 77% of stream length in CONUS. Federal agencies manage 72% of hydrologic monitoring sites across all stream orders, but only 34% of these are in headwater systems. Academic institutions operate about 2% of sites, with almost half (48%) in headwater systems, focusing on ecosystem research. State agencies also operate about 2% of sites, primarily on larger systems, with 19% on headwaters. Additionally, 23% of sites are managed by multiple agencies. Spatial patterns further reveal pronounced disparities among physiographic regions. Eastern and coastal provinces show relatively dense monitoring, while central and western regions show sparse coverage. These gaps reflect historical priorities, logistical constraints, funding limitations, and the high cost of continuous instrumentation. To address biases in monitoring networks, data collection could be enhanced with low-cost monitoring, community science, and remote sensing technologies. This study also notes the benefits of long-term monitoring and prioritizing retention of streamgages with longer records.

conterminous United States

Pharmaceuticals, hormones, and other organic wastewater contaminants in U.S. streams, 1999-2000: A national reconnaissance

To provide the first nationwide reconnaissance of the occurrence of pharmaceuticals, hormones, and other organic wastewater contaminants (OWCs) in water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey used five newly developed analytical methods to measure concentrations of 95 OWCs in water samples from a network of 139 streams across 30 states during 1999 and 2000. The selection of sampling sites was biased toward streams susceptible to contamination (i.e. downstream of intense urbanization and livestock production). OWCs were prevalent during this study, being found in 80% of the streams sampled. The compounds detected represent a wide range of residential, industrial, and agricultural origins and uses with 82 of the 95 OWCs being found during this study. The most frequently detected compounds were coprostanol (fecal steroid), cholesterol (plant and animal steroid), N , N -diethyltoluamide (insect repellant), caffeine (stimulant), triclosan (antimicrobial disinfectant), tri(2-chloroethyl)phosphate (fire retardant), and 4-nonylphenol (nonionic detergent metabolite). Measured concentrations for this study were generally low and rarely exceeded drinking-water guidelines, drinking-water health advisories, or aquatic-life criteria. Many compounds, however, do not have such guidelines established. The detection of multiple OWCs was common for this study, with a median of seven and as many as 38 OWCs being found in a given water sample. Little is known about the potential interactive effects (such as synergistic or antagonistic toxicity) that may occur from complex mixtures of OWCs in the environment. In addition, results of this study demonstrate the importance of obtaining data on metabolites to fully understand not only the fate and transport of OWCs in the hydrologic system but also their ultimate overall effect on human health and the environment.

Environmental Science & Technology

The principle of superposition and its application in ground-water hydraulics

The principle of superposition, a powerful mathematical technique for analyzing certain types of complex problems in many areas of science and technology, has important applications in ground-water hydraulics and modeling of ground-water systems. The principle of superposition states that problem solutions can be added together to obtain composite solutions. This principle applies to linear systems governed by linear differential equations. This report introduces the principle of superposition as it applies to ground-water hydrology and provides background information, discussion, illustrative problems with solutions, and problems to be solved by the reader.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations

Characterizing the areal extent of PFAS contamination in fish species downgradient of AFFF source zones

Most monitoring programs next to large per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) sources focus on drinking water contamination near source zones. However, less is understood about how these sources affect downgradient hydrological systems and food webs. Here, we report paired PFAS measurements in water, sediment, and aquatic biota along a hydrological gradient away from source zones contaminated by the use of legacy aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF) manufactured using electrochemical fluorination. Clustering analysis indicates that the PFAS composition characteristic of AFFF is detectable in water and fishes >8 km from the source. Concentrations of 38 targeted PFAS and extractable organofluorine (EOF) decreased in fishes downgradient of the AFFF-contaminated source zones. However, PFAS concentrations remained above consumption limits at all locations within the affected watershed. Perfluoroalkyl sulfonamide precursors accounted for approximately half of targeted PFAS in fish tissues, which explain >90% of EOF across all sampling locations. Suspect screening analyses revealed the presence of a polyfluoroketone pharmaceutical in fish species, and a fluorinated agrochemical in water that likely does not accumulate in biological tissues, suggesting the presence of diffuse sources such as septic system and agrochemical inputs throughout the watershed in addition to AFFF contamination. Based on these results, monitoring programs that consider all hydrologically connected regions within watersheds affected by large PFAS sources would help ensure public health protection.

Massachusetts

The principle of superposition and its application in ground-water hydraulics

The principle of superposition, a powerful methematical technique for analyzing certain types of complex problems in many areas of science and technology, has important application in ground-water hydraulics and modeling of ground-water systems. The principle of superposition states that solutions to individual problems can be added together to obtain solutions to complex problems. This principle applies to linear systems governed by linear differential equations. This report introduces the principle of superposition as it applies to groundwater hydrology and provides background information, discussion, illustrative problems with solutions, and problems to be solved by the reader. (USGS)

Open-File Report

High frequency data exposes nonlinear seasonal controls on dissolved organic matter in a large watershed

We analyzed a five year, high frequency time series generated by an in situ fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) sensor installed near the Connecticut River’s mouth, investigating high temporal resolution DOM dynamics in a larger watershed and longer time series than previously addressed. We identified a gradient between large, saturating summer fDOM responses to discharge and linear, subdued responses during colder months. Seasonal response patterns were not consistent with multiple linear regression. Alternatively, we binned measurements across the yearly cycle using environmental indices, such as temperature, and applied moving regression, a novel approach which produced superior fits to calendar day binning. Spatially averaged watershed soil temperature at 10 cm was the best overall index of discharge-fDOM response. DOM fractionation showed fDOM was primarily a surrogate for hydrophobic organic acid (HPOA) concentrations. HPOAs were highly correlated with discharge, but hydrophilics (HPIs) were not. Discharge dependent DOM concentrations driven by the HPOA fraction may be controlled by soil temperature and water table position relative to organic and mineral soil horizons. HPI concentrations were correlated with average watershed soil temperature at 10 cm but were rather stationary throughout the year, further indicating a consistent groundwater source for this nonfluorescent DOM. We present a resolved subseasonal empirical model of DOM concentrations and fluxes, showing that riverine DOM flux and quality depend heavily on seasonal terrestrial carbon dynamics and hydrologic flow paths. High frequency monitoring reveals readily discernible patterns demonstrating that upland biogeochemical signals are maintained even at this large watershed scale.

Environmental Science and Technology

Learning from arid and urban aquatic ecosystems to inform more sustainable and resilient futures

The hydrology and aquatic ecology of arid environments has long been understudied relative to temperate regions. Yet spatially and temporally intermittent and ephemeral waters characterized by flashy hydrographs typify arid regions that comprise a substantial proportion of the Earth. Additionally, drought, intense storms, and human modification of landscapes increasingly affect many temperate regions, resulting in hydrologic regimes more similar to aridlands. Here we review the contributions of Dr. Nancy Grimm to aridland hydrology and ecology, and applications of these insights to urban ecosystems and resilience of social-ecological-technological systems. Grimm catalyzed study of nitrogen cycling in streams and characterized feedbacks between surface water-groundwater exchange, nitrogen transformations, and aquatic biota. In aridlands, outcomes of these interactions depend on short- and long-term variation in the hydrologic regime. Grimm and colleagues applied hydrological and biogeochemical insights gained from study of aridland streams to urban ecosystems, integrating engineering, social and behavioral sciences, and geography. These studies evolved from characterizing the spatial heterogeneity of urban systems (i.e., watersheds, novel aquatic systems) and its influence on nutrient dynamics to an approach that evaluated human decision-making as a driver of disturbance regimes and changes in ecosystem function. Finally, Grimm and colleagues have applied principles of urban ecology to look toward the future of cities, considering scenarios of sustainable and resilient futures. We identify cross-cutting themes and approaches that have motivated discoveries across Grimm’s multi-decadal career, including spatial and temporal heterogeneity, hydrologic connectivity and regime, disturbance, systems thinking, and resilience. Finally, we emphasize Grimm’s broad contributions to science via support of long-term research, dedication to mentoring, and extensive collaborations that facilitated transdisciplinary research.

Journal of Hydrology

The fellow speaks: Sometimes you get only one chance

I am grateful to AGU for selecting me as one of the five recipient of the 2014 Ambassador Award, which also includes election as a Union Fellow. I thank my colleague Steve Ingebritsen for nominating me. As Steve’s citation mentions my work on the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response, I would like to reflect on this experience. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill is well documented in the report of the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling (2011). Washington Post writer John Achenbach’s (2011) book gives a behind-the-scene portrayal of the crisis and explains oil drilling technology in layman’s terms. A special feature in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (v. 109, no. 50, December 11, 2012) presents 4 perspectives and 11 research articles on “Science Applications in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.” Here, I will simply share my personal perspective.

AGU Hydrology Section Newsletter

Lagrangian mass-flow investigations of inorganic contaminants in wastewater-impacted streams

Understanding the potential effects of increased reliance on wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents to meet municipal, agricultural, and environmental flow requires an understanding of the complex chemical loading characteristics of the WWTPs and the assimilative capacity of receiving waters. Stream ecosystem effects are linked to proportions of WWTP effluent under low-flow conditions as well as the nature of the effluent chemical mixtures. This study quantifies the loading of 58 inorganic constituents (nutrients to rare earth elements) from WWTP discharges relative to upstream landscape-based sources. Stream assimilation capacity was evaluated by Lagrangian sampling, using flow velocities determined from tracer experiments to track the same parcel of water as it moved downstream. Boulder Creek, Colorado and Fourmile Creek, Iowa, representing two different geologic and hydrologic landscapes, were sampled under low-flow conditions in the summer and spring. One-half of the constituents had greater loads from the WWTP effluents than the upstream drainages, and once introduced into the streams, dilution was the predominant assimilation mechanism. Only ammonium and bismuth had significant decreases in mass load downstream from the WWTPs during all samplings. The link between hydrology and water chemistry inherent in Lagrangian sampling allows quantitative assessment of chemical fate across different landscapes.

Environmental Science & Technology

Development of a decision support tool for water and resource management using biotic, abiotic, and hydrological assessments of Topock Marsh, Arizona

Topock Marsh is a large wetland adjacent to the Colorado River and the main feature of Havasu National Wildlife Refuge (Havasu NWR) in southern Arizona. In 2010, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and Bureau of Reclamation began a project to improve water management capabilities at Topock Marsh and protect habitats and species. Initial construction required a drawdown, which caused below-average inflows and water depths in 2010–11. U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) scientists collected an assemblage of biotic, abiotic, and hydrologic data from Topock Marsh during the drawdown and immediately after, thus obtaining valuable information needed by FWS. Building upon that work, FORT developed a decision support system (DSS) to better understand ecosystem health and function of Topock Marsh under various hydrologic conditions. The DSS was developed using a spatially explicit geographic information system package of historical data, habitat indices, and analytical tools to synthesize outputs for hydrologic time periods. Deliverables include high-resolution orthorectified imagery of Topock Marsh; a DSS tool that can be used by Havasu NWR to compare habitat availability associated with three hydrologic scenarios (dry, average, wet years); and this final report which details study results. This project, therefore, has addressed critical FWS management questions by integrating ecologic and hydrologic information into a DSS framework. This DSS will assist refuge management to make better informed decisions about refuge operations and better understand the ecological results of those decisions by providing tools to identify the effects of water operations on species-specific habitat and ecological processes. While this approach was developed to help FWS use the best available science to determine more effective water management strategies at Havasu NWR, technologies used in this study could be applied elsewhere within the region.

Arizona

Collaborative drought science planning in the Colorado River Basin

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using collaborative, interdisciplinary planning to develop data and tools needed to optimize the management of water resources and land use by resource management agencies during an ongoing, multidecadal drought in the Colorado River Basin. The USGS Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology team works to build relationships with resource management agencies and other stakeholders who can benefit from the use of USGS data and products. In 2023, the Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology team hosted a series of collaborative workshops to bring together representatives of resource management agencies and other stakeholders (any person or entity with interests in a resource or location) with USGS program managers, scientists, and multidisciplinary subject matter experts to codevelop concepts for interdisciplinary drought science and technology projects to address pressing needs related to drought in the Colorado River Basin. Workshop participants identified current and recent scientific data that could be shared through a centralized online data portal. Workshop participants also identified drought science and technology needs and developed project concepts to address those science needs. Participants categorized project concepts based on their potential to develop short-, mid-, and long-term drought science data and tools, provide for the spatial or temporal expansion of ongoing USGS science projects, and address high-priority science needs. Participants developed nine project concepts: (1) understanding shifting ecohydrologic baselines, (2) San Juan River Basin synthesis, (3) incorporating dynamic land cover into hydrologic models, (4) aridification compared to drought, (5) surface water-groundwater interactions, (6) cascading effects of drought on dust, (7) cascading effects of drought on water availability, (8) cascading effects of drought on socioeconomic factors, and (9) the value of water in the Colorado River Basin. This report provides an overview of the 2023 Codesign Workshop Series, synthesized outcomes from workshop materials and discussions, and science project concepts that emerged from the collaborative meetings that will continue to be refined into science project proposals through codevelopment processes. This report also highlights lessons learned and next steps needed to receive feedback and testing of the USGS Science Collaboration Portal, continue collaboration to develop detailed specifics and steps for short-term wins, develop interdisciplinary project proposals, and implement science planning and studies.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

A review of selected inorganic surface water quality-monitoring practices: are we really measuring what we think, and if so, are we doing it right?

Successful environmental/water quality-monitoring programs usually require a balance between analytical capabilities, the collection and preservation of representative samples, and available financial/personnel resources. Due to current economic conditions, monitoring programs are under increasing pressure to do more with less. Hence, a review of current sampling and analytical methodologies, and some of the underlying assumptions that form the bases for these programs seems appropriate, to see if they are achieving their intended objectives within acceptable error limits and/or measurement uncertainty, in a cost-effective manner. That evaluation appears to indicate that several common sampling/processing/analytical procedures (e.g., dip (point) samples/measurements, nitrogen determinations, total recoverable analytical procedures) are generating biased or nonrepresentative data, and that some of the underlying assumptions relative to current programs, such as calendar-based sampling and stationarity are no longer defensible. The extensive use of statistical models as well as surrogates (e.g., turbidity) also needs to be re-examined because the hydrologic interrelationships that support their use tend to be dynamic rather than static. As a result, a number of monitoring programs may need redesigning, some sampling and analytical procedures may need to be updated, and model/surrogate interrelationships may require recalibration.

Environmental Science & Technology

An approach to regional wetland digital elevation model development using a differential global positioning system and a custom-built helicopter-based surveying system

Accurate topographic data are critical to restoration science and planning for the Everglades region of South Florida, USA. They are needed to monitor and simulate water level, water depth and hydroperiod and are used in scientific research on hydrologic and biologic processes. Because large wetland environments and data acquisition challenge conventional ground-based and remotely sensed data collection methods, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) adapted a classical data collection instrument to global positioning system (GPS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies. Data acquired with this instrument were processed using geostatistics to yield sub-water level elevation values with centimetre accuracy (±15 cm). The developed database framework, modelling philosophy and metadata protocol allow for continued, collaborative model revision and expansion, given additional elevation or other ancillary data.

Florida

Invasive species management and research using GIS

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species management. GIS can be used to create potential distribution maps for all manner of taxa, including plants, animals, and diseases. GIS also performs well in the early detection and rapid assessment of invasive species. Here, we used GIS applications to investigate species richness and invasion patterns in fish in the United States (US) at the 6-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) level. We also created maps of potential spread of the cane toad (Bufo marinus) in the southeastern US at the 8-digit HUC level using regression and environmental envelope techniques. Equipped with this potential map, resource managers can target their field surveys to areas most vulnerable to invasion. Advances in GIS technology, maps, data, and many of these techniques can be found on websites such as the National Institute of Invasive Species Science (www.NIISS.org). Such websites provide a forum for data sharing and analysis that is an invaluable service to the invasive species community.

Conference Paper

How do hydrological variability and human activities control the spatiotemporal changes of riverine nitrogen export in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

Excessive nitrogen export from agricultural watersheds remains a critical water quality challenge, with the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) significantly contributing to downstream eutrophication and hypoxia in the Gulf. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of riverine nitrate plus nitrite (NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N) export across the UMRB at high spatial resolution (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes or HUC12 subwatershed scale) during 2001–2020 and quantifies the effects of anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability on riverine NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N export changes in the region between 2001–2005 and 2016–2020. Our results revealed hotspots of substantial increases in NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N yields across the UMRB, with distinct regional patterns in driving factors. Over the entire UMRB, NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N yields increased by 9.7 kg/ha/yr on average from 2001–2005 to 2016–2020, with anthropogenic activities contributing 4.8 kg/ha/yr and hydrological variability contributing 4.9 kg/ha/yr. The northern and western UMRB had combined influences from both anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability, while the east-central regions had predominantly hydrologically driven changes. Agricultural sources, including fertilizer, manure, and biological nitrogen fixation, collectively contributed over 80% of NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N loading throughout the basin. This framework for disentangling human and hydrological impacts provides critical insights for developing effective and targeted watershed management strategies to reduce nutrient losses and improve water quality.

Upper Mississippi River Basin