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USGS2014

Desert wetlands in the geologic record

Desert wetlands support flora and fauna in a variety of hydrologic settings, including seeps, springs, marshes, wet meadows, ponds, and spring pools. Over time, eolian, alluvial, and fluvial sediments become trapped in these settings by a combination of wet ground conditions and dense plant cover. The result is a unique combination of clastic sediments, chemical precipitates, and organic matter that is preserved in the geologic record as ground-water discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits contain information on the timing and magnitude of past changes in water-table levels and, therefore, are a potential source of paleohydrologic and paleoclimatic information. In addition, they can be important archeological and paleontological archives because desert wetlands provide reliable sources of fresh water, and thus act as focal points for human and faunal activities, in some of the world's harshest and driest lands. Here, we review some of the physical, sedimentological, and geochemical characteristics common to GWD deposits, and provide a contextual framework that researchers can use to identify and interpret geologic deposits associated with desert wetlands. We discuss several lines of evidence used to differentiate GWD deposits from lake deposits (they are commonly confused), and examine how various types of microbiota and depositional facies aid in reconstructing past environmental and hydrologic conditions. We also review how late Quaternary GWD deposits are dated, as well as methods used to investigate desert wetlands deeper in geologic time. We end by evaluating the strengths and limitations of hydrologic and climatic records derived from GWD deposits, and suggest several avenues of potential future research to further develop and utilize these unique and complex systems.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS1983

The past is the key to the future

A new major frontier of geological research, which was initiated in the 1970's, involves predicting future geologic trends or events through study of the present and past, rather than trying to understand the past, often using what one knows about the present. Like most scientific frontiers, this one began from practical considerations—environmental concerns. The lack of formal recognition of this frontier results from fragmentation among many Federal agencies and highly focused mission-oriented programs ( e.g. , earthquake prediction, CO 2 , nuclear-energy safety, etc.). Most programs aim to predict only the next 50–100 years, but much longer periods of the past need to be studied to do this. Nuclear-waste disposal has sometimes been considered in terms of the next million years, a period of time permitting significant and broad geologic changes. Decreasing public interest in environmental concerns relegates many questions from the realm of applied research back to that of basic research. Most of these questions are so fascinating, however, that the frontier is still worth pursuing. Such questions include whether a phenomenon will or will not take place and the rates at which it can develop ( e.g. , how fast do rifts form, how fast can a caldera event begin, and how quickly can a glacial maximum arrive?). Common elements of all studies include the historic record, trends in the Quaternary, analogues in various periods of the geologic time scale, and allowance for phenomena never experienced before. Other examples of studies include the Cretaceous as a period of a climatic extreme, an especially interesting time period; establishing the amount of paleocloudiness, a particularly challenging and important research area; acid rain as a possible new phenomenon. Geochemistry has much to contribute to this frontier science.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2026

Millennial-scale climatic and cultural impacts on vegetation and fire at the southern edge of the Rocky Mountains, USA

Mountain forests and woodlands in semiarid regions of the world are threatened by climatic change and other human impacts. In the southwestern USA, climate and culturally driven changes to the structure and fire regimes of dry coniferous forests over recent centuries are well documented by tree-ring archives. However, the roles of climate and people as drivers of millennial-scale changes are less understood. We present a new record of vegetation dynamics and regional fire activity inferred from pollen, microscopic charcoal, and sediment geochemistry from Santa Fe Lake, NM (3532 m a.s.l.), the southernmost natural lake in the Rocky Mountains. Declining elemental intensities (e.g., Ti, Fe, Si) record local deglaciation after 14,000 cal yr BP followed by upslope expansion of trees indicated by increasing Pinus and Picea pollen percentages as the climate warmed during the Late Glacial. Cool, dry growing seasons probably limited the establishment of dense forests until after 12,200 cal yr BP when we hypothesize that Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine) expanded regionally (i.e., within 10–100 km) due to continued warming and a possible increase in monsoonal precipitation. Subalpine forests established near Santa Fe Lake by 10,300 cal yr BP as indicated by abundant conifer stomates and increasing Picea and Pinus aristata pollen percentages, which are highest after 5100 cal yr BP. Increasing Juniperus -type, Quercus , and Pinus edulis -type pollen record changes in vegetation belts at lower elevations after 10,300 cal yr BP. Maize pollen, an unambiguous indicator of Puebloan agriculture, first appears at 800 cal yr BP (1150 cal yr CE) and is present through 1600 cal yr CE when Spanish colonization brought cultural upheaval and population loss to local indigenous communities. Regional fire activity, inferred from microscopic charcoal influx, remained relatively constant for most of our record. However, average microscopic charcoal influx more than doubled relative to the rest of the Holocene during the last 2000 years, with the highest influx after 1550 cal yr BP (400 cal yr CE). The increased influx of microscopic charcoal coincides with archaeological evidence for dramatic regional population growth in the northern Rio Grande region and probably reflects extensive cultural burning associated with the development of an agricultural economy. Although climate was an important driver of vegetation change and fire regimes in the mountains of the southwestern USA during the Holocene, our results suggest that human impacts on regional burning during the last 2000 years far exceeded earlier climate-driven variation.

Rocky Mountains↗

USGS2018

Subsurface controls on the development of the Cape Fear Slide Complex, central US Atlantic Margin

The Cape Fear Slide is one of the largest (>25 000 km 3 ) submarine slope failure complexes on the US Atlantic margin. Here we use a combination of new high-resolution multichannel seismic data (MCS) from the National Science Foundation Geodynamic Processes at Rifting and Subducting Margins (NSF GeoPRISMS) Community Seismic Experiment and legacy industry MCS to derive detailed stratigraphy of this slide and constrain the conditions that lead to slope instability. Limited outer-shelf and upper-slope accommodation space during the Neogene, combined with lowstand fluvial inputs and northwards Gulf Stream sediment transport, appears to have contributed to thick Miocene and Pliocene deposits that onlapped the lower slope. This resulted in burial of an upper-slope bypass zone developed from earlier erosional truncation of Paleogene strata. These deposits created a broad ramp that allowed accumulation of thick Quaternary strata across a low-gradient (<3.5°) upper slope. Upslope of one of the larger headwalls, undulating Quaternary strata appear to downlap onto a buried failure plane. Many of the nested headwalls of the upper-slope portion of slide complex are underlain by deformed strata, which may be the result of fluid migration associated with localized subsidence from salt migration. These new data and observations suggest that antecedent margin physiography, sediment loading and substrate fluid flow were key factors in preconditioning the Cape Fear slope for failure.

Geological Society of London Special Publications↗

USGS2003

Modern, Sangamon and Yarmouth soil development in loess of unglaciated southwestern Illinois

The Thebes Section in unglaciated southwestern Illinois contains a well preserved ??? 500 kyr loess-paleosol sequence with four loesses and three interglacial soils. Various magnetic, mineralogical, and elemental properties were analyzed and compared over the thickness of soil sola. These proxies for soil] development intensity have the following trend: Yarmouth Geosol > Sangamon Geosol > modern soil. Quartz/plagioclase, Zr/Sr, and TiO2/Na2O ratios were most sensitive to weathering. Frequency dependent magnetic susceptibility and anhysteretic remanent magnetization, greatest in A horizons, also correspond well with soil development intensity. Neoformed mixed-layered kaolinite/expandables, suggestive of a warm/humid climate, were detected in the Sangamon and Yarmouth soil sola. Clay illuviation in soils was among the least sensitive indicators of soil development. Differences in properties among interglacial soils are interpreted to primarily reflect soil development duration, with climatic effects being secondary. Assuming logarithmic decreases in weathering rates, the observed weathering in the Sangamon Geosol is consistent with 50 kyr of interglacial weathering (Oxygen Isotope Stage 5) compared to 10 kyr for the modern soil (Oxygen Isotope Stage 1). We propose that the Yarmouth Geosol in the central Midwest formed over 180 kyr of interglacial weathering (including oxygen isotope stages 7, 9, and 11). ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2002

Nearshore morphology and late Quaternary geologic framework of the northern Monterey Bay Marine Sanctuary, California

A combination of side-scanning sonar and high-resolution seismic reflection data image seafloor bedrock exposures and erosional features across the nearshore shelf. Sediment-filled troughs incise the inner shelf rock exposures and tie directly to modern coastal streams. The resulting bedrock geometry can be related to its resistance to erosion. Comparison of the depth of the transgressive erosional surface to recently developed sea level curves suggests a period of slow sea level rise during the early stages of post-interglacial marine transgression. The slow rise of sea level suggests an erosional episode that limited the preservation of buried paleo-channels beyond 70 m water depth. Seafloor features suggest that localized faulting in the area may have influenced the morphology of bedrock exposures and the coastline. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Geology↗

USGS1991

The record of Pliocene sea-level change at Enewetak Atoll

Detailed seismic stratigraphy, lithostratigraphy, and chemostratigraphy indicate that atoll-wide subaerial exposure surfaces (major disconformities) developed during major sea-level lowstands form prominent seismic reflectors and are coincident with biostratigraphic breaks in the Plio-Pleistocene on Enewetak Atoll. Sea-level models based on the stratigraphic position and age of major disconformities suggest a maximum sea-level highstand elevation of 36 m above present sea level and a maximum sea-level lowstand elevation of 63 m below present sea level for the Pliocene.

Enewetak Atoll, Marshall Islands↗

USGS2021

Spatiotemporal patterns of northern lake formation since the last glacial maximum

The northern mid- to high-latitudes have the highest total number and area of lakes on Earth. Lake origins in these regions are diverse, but to a large extent coupled to glacial, permafrost, and peatland histories. The synthesis of 1207 northern lake initiation records presented here provides an analog for rapid landscape-level change in response to climate warming, and its subsequent attenuation by physical and biological feedback mechanisms. Our compilation reveals two peaks in northern lake formation, 13,200 and 10,400 years ago, both following rapid increases in North Atlantic air temperature. Placing our findings within the context of existing paleoenvironmental records, we suggest that solar insolation-driven changes in climate (temperature and water balance) that led to deglaciation and permafrost thaw likely contributed to high rates of northern lake formation during the last Deglacial period. However, further landscape development and stabilization dramatically reduced rates of lake formation beginning ∼10,000 years ago. This suggests that temperature alone may not control future lake development; rather, multiple factors must align to enable a landscape to respond with an increase in lake area. We propose that land surfaces strongly geared toward increased lake formation were highly conditioned by glaciation. Thus, it is unlikely that warming this century will cause lake formation as rapid or as widespread as that during the last Deglacial period.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2003

Geologic map and digital database of the Redlands 7.5' quadrangle, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, California

This geologic database of the Redlands 7.5' quadrangle was prepared by the Southern California Areal Mapping Project (SCAMP), a regional geologic-mapping project sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey. The database was developed as a contribution to the National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program's National Geologic Map Database, and is intended to provide a general geologic setting of the Redlands quadrangle. The database and map provide information about earth materials and geologic structures, including faults and folds that have developed in the quadrangle due to complexities in the San Andreas Fault system. The Redlands 7.5' quadrangle contains earth materials and structures that provide insight into the late Cenozoic geologic evolution of the southern California Inland Empire region. Important stratigraphic and structural elements include (1) the modern trace of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults and (2) late Tertiary and Quaternary sedimentary materials and geologic structures that formed during the last million years or so and that record complex geologic interactions within the San Andreas Fault system. These materials and the structures that deform them provide the geologic framework for investigations of earthquake hazards and ground-water recharge and subsurface flow. Geologic information contained in the Redlands database is general-purpose data that is applicable to land-related investigations in the earth and biological sciences. The term "general-purpose" means that all geologic-feature classes have minimal information content adequate to characterize their general geologic characteristics and to interpret their general geologic history. However, no single feature class has enough information to definitively characterize its properties and origin. For this reason the database cannot be used for site-specific geologic evaluations, although it can be used to plan and guide investigations at the site-specific level. This summary pamphlet discusses major categories of surficial materials in the Redlands quadrangle, and provides a conceptual framework and basis for how geologicmap units containing such materials are recognized and correlated.

California↗

USGS2000

Preliminary report on the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector mine, California, earthquake

The M w 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake occurred at 9:46 GMT on 16 October 1999. The event caused minimal damage because it was located in a remote, sparsely populated part of the Mojave Desert, approximately 47 miles east-southeast of Barstow, with epicentral coordinates 34.59°N 116.27°W and a hypocentral depth of 5 ± 3 km. Twelve foreshocks, M 1.9-3.8, preceded the mainshock during the previous twelve hours. All of these events were located close to the hypocenter of the mainshock. The Hector Mine earthquake occurred within the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). By virtue of its remote location, the societal impact of the Hector Mine earthquake was, fortunately, minimal in spite of the event's appreciable size. The ECSZ is characterized by high seismicity, a high tectonic strain rate, and a broad, distributed zone of north-northwest-trending faults (ECSZ; Figure 1 ; Dokka and Travis, 1990 ; Sauber et al., 1986 ; Sauber et al., 1994 ; Sieh et al., 1993 ). Data regarding the slip rates of faults within the ECSZ suggest that on the order of 15% of the Pacific-North American plate motion occurs along this zone ( Sauber et al., 1986 ; Wesnousky, 1986 ). Most of the faults in the ECSZ have low slip rates and long repeat times for major earthquakes, on the order of several thousands to tens of thousands of years. The occurrence of the Hector Mine earthquake within seven years and only about 30 km east of the 1992 M w 7.3 Landers earthquake suggests that the closely spaced surface faults in the ECSZ are mechanically related. The Hector Mine event involved rupture on two previously mapped fault zones—the Bullion Fault and an unnamed, more northerly-trending fault that is informally referred to in this paper as the Lavic Lake Fault (Dibblee, 1966 , 1967a , b ). Traces of the Bullion Fault exhibit evidence of Holocene displacement and were zoned as active in 1988 under California's Mquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act ( Hart and Bryant, 1997 ). The pattern of rupture along more than one named fault was also observed from the 1992 Landers earthquake ( Hauksson et al., 1993 ; Sieh et al., 1994). Much of the fault zone that produced the Hector Mine earthquake had been buried by relatively young stream deposits, and the fault scarps in bedrock have a subdued morphology. It appears that these faults have not experienced significant offset for perhaps 10,000 years or more ( Hart, 1987 ). Planned future investigations will refine the age of the last event on these faults. The portion of the Lavic Lake Fault that ruptured between the northern end of the Bullion Mountains and Lavic Lake had not previously been mapped. However, our field investigations have identified ancient, subdued fault scarps along portions of the 1999 rupture zone in this area. It thus appears that the entire segment of the Lavic Lake Fault that was involved in the 1999 event had ruptured in the past. As is typical for most faults within the Eastern California Shear Zone, the rate of movement along the Lavic Lake Fault may be quite slow (<1 mm/yr) and should produce earthquakes only infrequently. This event is a reminder that faults that have ruptured in late Quaternary time, but that lack evidence of Holocene displacement, can still produce earthquakes in this low-slip-rate tectonic setting. Additionally, the Hector Mine earthquake is noteworthy for a couple of other reasons. First, it clearly produced triggered seismicity over much of southern California, from the rupture zone toward the south-southwest in particular. Second, as we will discuss, the event may provide new data and insight into recently developed paradigms concerning earthquake interactions and the role of static stress changes. Questions such as these will, of course, be the subject of extensive detailed analyses in years to come. Fortunately, the Hector Mine sequence will provide one of the best data sets obtained to date for a significant earthquake in the United States. Because it occurred when major upgrades to both the regional seismic network (TriNet) and the regional geodetic network (SCIGN) were well underway, the Earth science community will have abundant high-quality data with which to explore the important and interesting questions that have been raised. In this paper, we present and discuss the basic data and preliminary results from the Hector Mine earthquake.

California↗

USGS2012

Groundwater quality in West Virginia, 1993-2008

Approximately 42 percent of all West Virginians rely on groundwater for their domestic water supply. However, prior to 2008, the quality of the West Virginia’s groundwater resource was largely unknown. The need for a statewide assessment of groundwater quality prompted the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (WVDEP), Division of Water and Waste Management, to develop an ambient groundwater-quality monitoring program. The USGS West Virginia Water Science Center sampled 300 wells, of which 80 percent were public-supply wells, over a 10-year period, 1999–2008. Sites for this statewide ambient groundwater-quality monitoring program were selected to provide wide areal coverage and to represent a variety of environmental settings. The resulting 300 samples were supplemented with data from a related monitoring network of 24 wells and springs. All samples were analyzed for field measurements (water temperature, pH, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen), major ions, trace elements, nutrients, volatile organic compounds, fecal indicator bacteria, and radon-222. Sub-sets of samples were analyzed for pesticides or semi-volatile organic compounds; site selection was based on local land use. Samples were grouped for comparison by geologic age of the aquifer, Groups included Cambrian, Ordovician, Silurian, Devonian, Pennsylvanian, Permian, and Quaternary aquifers. A comparison of samples indicated that geologic age of the aquifer was the largest contributor to variability in groundwater quality. This study did not attempt to characterize drinking water provided through public water systems. All samples were of raw, untreated groundwater. Drinking-water criteria apply to water that is served to the public, not to raw water. However, drinking water criteria, including U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL), non-enforceable secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL), non-enforceable proposed MCL, or non-enforceable advisory health-based screening level (HBSL), were used as benchmarks against which to compare analytical results. Constituent concentrations were less than the MCLs in most samples. However, some samples exceeded non-enforceable SMCLs, proposed MCLs, or advisory HBSLs. Radon-222 concentrations exceeded the proposed MCL of 300 pCi/L in 45 percent of samples, and iron concentrations exceeded the SMCL of 300 µg/L in 57 percent of samples. Manganese concentrations were greater than the SMCL (50 µg/L) in 62 percent of samples and greater than the HBSL (300 µg/L) in 25 percent of the samples. Other sampled constituents, including organic compounds and trace elements, exceeded drinking-water criteria at much lower frequencies. The radon-222 median concentrations in samples from Cambrian, Ordovician, Silurian, Permian, and Quaternary aquifers exceeded the proposed 300 pCi/L MCL. Although median radon concentrations for wells in Devonian, Mississippian, and Pennsylvanian aquifers were less than the proposed MCL, radon concentrations greater than the proposed MCL were measured in samples from aquifers of all geologic ages. The median iron concentrations for samples from Devonian and Pennsylvanian aquifers were greater than the 300 µg/L SMCL. Iron concentrations exceeded the SMCL in aquifers of all geologic ages, except Cambrian. Median concentrations of manganese exceeded the SMCL in samples from Devonian, Pennsylvanian, and Quaternary aquifers. As with iron, manganese concentrations were found to exceed the SMCL in at least one sample from aquifers of all geologic ages, except Cambrian. Pesticides were detected most frequently and in higher concentrations in limestone-dominated areas. Most of West Virginia’s agriculture is concentrated in those areas. This study, the most comprehensive assessment of West Virginia groundwater quality to date, indicates the water quality of West Virginia’s groundwater is generally good; in the majority of cases raw-water samples met primary drinking water-criteria. However, some constituents, notably iron and manganese, exceeded the secondary drinking criteria in more than half the samples.

West Virginia↗

USGS2003

Geologic map and digital database of the Yucaipa 7.5’ quadrangle, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, California

Introduction This geologic database of the Yucaipa 7.5' quadrangle was prepared by the Southern California Areal Mapping Project (SCAMP), a regional geologic-mapping project sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey. The database was developed as a contribution to the National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program's National Geologic Map Database, and is intended to provide a general geologic setting of the Yucaipa quadrangle. The database and map provide information about earth materials and geologic structures, including faults and folds that have developed in the quadrangle due to complexities in the San Andreas Fault system. The Yucaipa 7.5' quadrangle contains materials and structures that provide unique insight into the Mesozoic and Cenozoic geologic evolution of southern California. Stratigraphic and structural elements include: (1) strands of the San Andreas Fault that bound far-traveled terranes of crystalline and sedimentary rock; (2) Mesozoic crystalline rocks that form lower and upper plates of the regionwide Vincent-Orocopia Thrust system; and (3) late Tertiary and Quaternary sedimentary materials and geologic structures that formed during the last million years or so and that record complex geologic interactions within the San Andreas Fault system. These materials and the structures that deform them provide the geologic framework for investigations of geologic hazards and ground-water recharge and subsurface flow. Geologic information contained in the Yucaipa database is general-purpose data that is applicable to land-related investigations in the earth and biological sciences. The term "generalpurpose" means that all geologic-feature classes have minimal information content adequate to characterize their general geologic characteristics and to interpret their general geologic history. However, no single feature class has enough information to definitively characterize its properties and origin. For this reason the database cannot be used for site-specific geologic evaluations, although it can be used to plan and guide investigations at the site-specific level.

California↗

USGS2015

Updating the USGS seismic hazard maps for Alaska

The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise, areal sources are developed from earthquake catalogs or GPS data. Sources are combined with ground-motion estimates to compute the hazard. The current maps for Alaska were developed in 2007, and included modeled sources for the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust, a few crustal faults, and areal seismicity sources. The megathrust was modeled as a segmented dipping plane with segmentation largely derived from the slip patches of past earthquakes. Some megathrust deformation is aseismic, so recurrence was estimated from seismic history rather than plate rates. Crustal faults included the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte system, the Denali–Totschunda system, the Castle Mountain fault, two faults on Kodiak Island, and the Transition fault, with recurrence estimated from geologic data. Areal seismicity sources were developed for Benioff-zone earthquakes and for crustal earthquakes not associated with modeled faults. We review the current state of knowledge in Alaska from a seismic-hazard perspective, in anticipation of future updates of the maps. Updated source models will consider revised seismicity catalogs, new information on crustal faults, new GPS data, and new thinking on megathrust recurrence, segmentation, and geometry. Revised ground-motion models will provide up-to-date shaking estimates for crustal earthquakes and subduction earthquakes in Alaska.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2020

2,200-Year tree-ring and lake-sediment based snowpack reconstruction for the northern Rocky Mountains highlights the historic magnitude of recent snow drought

In recent decades, Rocky Mountain accumulated snowpack levels have experienced rapid declines, yet long-term records of snowpack prior to the installation of snowpack observation stations in the early and mid 20th century are limited. To date, a small number of tree-ring based reconstructions of April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in the northern Rocky Mountains have extended modern records of snowpack variability to ∼1200 C.E. Carbonate isotope lake sediment records, provide an opportunity to further extend tree-ring based reconstructions through the Holocene, providing a millennial-scale temporal record that allows for an evaluation of multi-scale drivers of snowpack variability, from internal climate dynamics to orbital-scale forcings. Here we present a ∼2200 year preliminary reconstruction of northern Rockies snowpack based on δ 18 O measurements of sediment carbonates collected from Foy Lake, Montana. We explore the statistical calibration of lake sediment δ 18 O to an annually resolved snowpack reconstruction from tree rings, and develop an approach to assess and quantify potential sources of error in this reconstruction approach. The sediment-based snowpack reconstruction shows strong low-frequency variability in snowpack over the last two millennia with few snow droughts approaching the magnitude of recent snowpack declines. Given the growing availability of high-resolution, carbonate-rich lake sediment records, such reconstructions could help improve our understanding of how snowpack conditions varied under previous climatic events (mid-Holocene climate optimum ca. 9−6 ka), providing critical insights for anticipating future snowpack conditions.

Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,↗

USGS2019

New approach to assessing age uncertainties – The 2300-year varve chronology from Eklutna Lake, Alaska (USA)

Developing robust chronological frameworks of lacustrine sediment is central to reconstructing past environmental changes. We present varve chronologies from five sites extending back 2300 years from Eklutna Lake, in the Chugach Mountains of south-central Alaska. The chronologies are built from image analysis of high-resolution photographs and CT scans of sediment cores. The age uncertainty of each record is tested by three methods. We first present varve chronologies from individual sites and reconcile the difference in varve delimitation from two observers. The varve chronologies from each site are then compared to each other using a series of marker beds that can be traced across the lake basin. Finally, using a new Bayesian probabilistic model, we develop age models that incorporate information regarding age uncertainty from the multiple-observer method and the age distribution of marker layers from multiple cores. To evaluate the accuracy of the Bayesian model output, we used seven radiocarbon ages from terrestrial macrofossils and four tephra layers traceable across the core sites. The major-element geochemistry of the tephra layers and their ages are presented here for the first time. The Bayesian age model offers a new approach to quantifying age uncertainty in inter-correlated cores of varved sediment.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

Sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2016

Quantifying pollen-vegetation relationships to reconstruct ancient forests using 19th-century forest composition and pollen data

Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects relies partly on how effectively land-atmosphere interactions can be quantified. Quantifying composition of past forest ecosystems can help understand processes governing forest dynamics in a changing world. Fossil pollen data provide information about past forest composition, but rigorous interpretation requires development of pollen-vegetation models (PVMs) that account for interspecific differences in pollen production and dispersal. Widespread and intensified land-use over the 19th and 20th centuries may have altered pollen-vegetation relationships. Here we use STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial PVM, to estimate key process parameters and associated uncertainties in the pollen-vegetation relationship. We apply alternate dispersal kernels, and calibrate STEPPS using a newly developed Euro-American settlement-era calibration data set constructed from Public Land Survey data and fossil pollen samples matched to the settlement-era using expert elicitation. Models based on the inverse power-law dispersal kernel outperformed those based on the Gaussian dispersal kernel, indicating that pollen dispersal kernels are fat tailed. Pine and birch have the highest pollen productivities. Pollen productivity and dispersal estimates are generally consistent with previous understanding from modern data sets, although source area estimates are larger. Tests of model predictions demonstrate the ability of STEPPS to predict regional compositional patterns.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2015

Energy flow and the “grassification” of desert shrublands

In our directionally and continuously changing world, history still matters, and it does so in increasingly novel and important ways. Human adaptation to global change will rely heavily on robust baselines of historic environmental variability and detailed understanding of how both past and modern ecosystems have responded to both individual and multiple stressors. The question of global change has motivated an upsurge in paleoecological studies that span the late Quaternary and the modern era, and has inspired a growing consideration of time as a fundamental axis in ecology ( 1 ). A major challenge in developing pertinent ecological baselines remains how to fuse, into continuous time series, observations and experiments from living systems with paleoecological reconstructions from the same sites ( 2 , 3 ). Tracing and disentangling complex responses to environmental stress from paleological to present-day communities is especially daunting; for example, how climate change; accelerated land use; and biological invasions are influencing the flows of water, nutrients, and energy. The paper by Terry and Rowe in PNAS ( 4 ) is a shining example of how modern ecology and paleoecology can be spliced together to decipher how ecological processes unfold over time scales inaccessible to direct observation or experimentation, and how they can be disrupted by human impacts.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗