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Persistent and novel threats to the biodiversity of Kazakhstan’s steppes and semi-deserts

Temperate grasslands have suffered disproportionally from conversion to cropland, degradation and fragmentation. A large proportion of the world’s remaining near-natural grassland is situated in Kazakhstan. We aimed to assess current and emerging threats to steppe and semi-desert biodiversity in Kazakhstan and evaluate conservation research priorities. We conducted a horizon-scanning exercise among conservationists from academia and practice. We first compiled a list of 45 potential threats. These were then ranked by the survey participants according to their perceived severity, the need for research on them, and their novelty. The highest-ranked threats were related to changes in land use (leading to habitat loss and deterioration), direct persecution of wildlife, and rapid infrastructure development due to economic and population growth. Research needs were identified largely in the same areas, and the mean scores of threat severity and research need were highly correlated. Novel threats comprised habitat loss by photovoltaic and wind power stations, climate change and changes in agriculture such as the introduction of biofuels. However, novelty was not correlated with threat severity or research priority, suggesting that the most severe threats are the established ones. Important goals towards more effective steppe and semi-desert conservation in Kazakhstan include more cross-sector collaboration (e.g. by involving stakeholders in conservation and agriculture), greater allocation of funds to under-staffed areas (e.g. protected area management), better representativeness and complementarity in the protected area system and enhanced data collection for wildlife monitoring and threat assessments (including the use of citizen-science databases).

Biodiversity and Conservation

A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss) , a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

Washington

Using an ecological ethics framework to make decisions about the relocation of wildlife

Relocation is an increasingly prominent conservation tool for a variety of wildlife, but the technique also is controversial, even among conservation practitioners. An organized framework for addressing the moral dilemmas often accompanying conservation actions such as relocation has been lacking. Ecological ethics may provide such a framework and appears to be an important step forward in aiding ecological researchers and biodiversity managers to make difficult moral choices. A specific application of this framework can make the reasoning process more transparent and give more emphasis to the strong sentiments about non-human organisms held by many potential users. Providing an example of the application of the framework may also increase the appeal of the reasoning process to ecological researchers and biodiversity managers. Relocation as a conservation action can be accompanied by a variety of moral dilemmas that reflect the interconnection of values, ethical positions, and conservation decisions. A model that is designed to address moral dilemmas arising from relocation of humans provides/demonstrates/illustrates a possible way to apply the ecological ethics framework and to involve practicing conservationists in the overall decision-making process. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Science and Engineering Ethics

Whooping Cranes past and present

The Whooping Crane ( Grus americana ), endemic to North America, is the rarest of all crane species. It is believed that in the early 1800s, the Whooping Crane was widespread in North America, though it was never very abundant. Whooping Crane numbers decreased precipitously as westward migration of Euro-American settlers converted prairie to cropland and the birds were hunted. By the early 1940s the total population was as low as 21 individuals; the migratory Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population, from which all extant Whooping Cranes are descended, dwindled to 16 in 1941. The threat of extinction was very real. These dire circumstances excited the interest of ornithologists and conservationists in the United States and Canada, and much has been accomplished since to conserve the species. To describe the historical and ongoing conservation activities for Whooping Cranes, we distinguish two eras of Whooping Crane Conservation: before 1950 and after 1950. The first era was characterized by publicizing the plight of the Whooping Crane and halting hunting and habitat destruction. The second era, continuing to the present, has been characterized by development of information about cranes through scientific study, conservation efforts of governmental and nongovernmental organizations, protection of the species under the Endangered Species Act in the United States and the Species at Risk Act in Canada, habitat protection, and reintroduction of new populations of Whooping Cranes. Publication of the monograph, The Whooping Crane by Robert Porter Allen, in 1952 stimulated much of the work of the second era, and still stands as the definitive work on the biology of Whooping Cranes. The remnant Aransas Wood Buffalo Population, which is crucial to species recovery, has grown to over 430 birds as of winter 2016–17. Four reintroduced populations were started in the second era; two are currently active efforts (the Eastern Migratory population and the Louisiana Nonmigratory Population), although neither population is selfsustaining. This volume gathers together the current scientific information about Whooping Cranes and the experiences of various reintroduction and management operations, to provide a baseline from which a third era of Whooping Crane conservation may be launched.

Book chapter

A global parasite conservation plan

Found throughout the tree of life and in every ecosystem, parasites are some of the most diverse, ecologically important animals on Earth—but in almost all cases, the least protected by wildlife or ecosystem conservation efforts. For decades, ecologists have been calling for research to understand parasites' important ecological role, and increasingly, to protect as many species from extinction as possible. However, most conservationists still work within priority systems for funding and effort that exclude or ignore parasites, or treat parasites as an obstacle to be overcome. Our working group identified 12 goals for the next decade that could advance parasite biodiversity conservation through an ambitious mix of research, advocacy, and management.

Biological Conservation

Modeling regeneration responses of big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) to abiotic conditions

Ecosystems dominated by big sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata Nuttall (Asteraceae), which are the most widespread ecosystems in semiarid western North America, have been affected by land use practices and invasive species. Loss of big sagebrush and the decline of associated species, such as greater sage-grouse, are a concern to land managers and conservationists. However, big sagebrush regeneration remains difficult to achieve by restoration and reclamation efforts and there is no regeneration simulation model available. We present here the first process-based, daily time-step, simulation model to predict yearly big sagebrush regeneration including relevant germination and seedling responses to abiotic factors. We estimated values, uncertainty, and importance of 27 model parameters using a total of 1435 site-years of observation. Our model explained 74% of variability of number of years with successful regeneration at 46 sites. It also achieved 60% overall accuracy predicting yearly regeneration success/failure. Our results identify specific future research needed to improve our understanding of big sagebrush regeneration, including data at the subspecies level and improved parameter estimates for start of seed dispersal, modified wet thermal-time model of germination, and soil water potential influences. We found that relationships between big sagebrush regeneration and climate conditions were site specific, varying across the distribution of big sagebrush. This indicates that statistical models based on climate are unsuitable for understanding range-wide regeneration patterns or for assessing the potential consequences of changing climate on sagebrush regeneration and underscores the value of this process-based model. We used our model to predict potential regeneration across the range of sagebrush ecosystems in the western United States, which confirmed that seedling survival is a limiting factor, whereas germination is not. Our results also suggested that modeled regeneration suitability is necessary but not sufficient to explain sagebrush presence. We conclude that future assessment of big sagebrush responses to climate change will need to account for responses of regenerative stages using a process-based understanding, such as provided by our model.

Ecological Modelling

Converting CRP grasslands to cropland, grazing land, or hayland: Effects on breeding bird abundances in the northern Great Plains of the United States

Recent declines of grassland bird populations in North America are linked to habitat loss and fragmentation associated with agricultural practices. One tool used to conserve soil, water and wildlife habitat on agricultural fields is the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the largest agricultural conservation program in the United States. Managers and conservationists recognize CRP as an important component of conserving grassland birds in the central portion of the United States. However, recent widespread expiration of CRP contracts could negatively influence grassland bird populations. Few studies have evaluated how former CRP-enrolled fields may function as grassland bird habitat. In this paper, we analyzed data from a long-term (1990–2017) study aimed at comparing grassland bird abundance (24 species) between idled CRP grasslands and fields where the CRP contracts expired. Some of these fields where contracts expired were maintained as pasture or hayland, and others were converted back to cropland. Estimated abundances of most species were considerably higher in idled CRP than in fields with expired CRP contracts. Post-CRP land use also appeared to affect most bird abundances, with lower abundance in grazed grasslands and haylands relative to idled CRP, but higher abundance than cropland. The responses of obligate and facultative grassland specialists to post-CRP management varied among species, with some being negative and some being positive depending on post-CRP land use, which is unsurprising given the variable habitat requirements of grassland birds. Our results have implications for wildlife managers who must design conservation strategies around the land use decisions of private landowners. Our results support the idea of maintaining a mosaic of undisturbed CRP grasslands and post-CRP grasslands that are hayed or grazed, which should guarantee some undisturbed nesting cover in the landscape for some bird species and some disturbed grasslands that may have long-term benefits for other species.

Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota

Linkages between hydrology and seasonal variations of nutrients and periphyton in a large oligotrophic subalpine lake

Periphyton is important to lake ecosystems, contributing to primary production, nutrient cycling, and benthic metabolism. Increases in periphyton growth in lakes can be indicative of changes in water quality, shifts in ecosystem structure, and increases in nutrient fluxes. In oligotrophic lakes, conservationists are interested in characterizing the influence of hydrological drivers on excessive periphyton growth along nearshore areas. We collected nutrient samples bi-weekly from groundwater and surface water during a 9-month monitoring period to evaluate the timing and availability of nutrients to eulittoral periphyton in Lake Tahoe. Groundwater discharge rates were measured synoptically using seepage meters and estimated indirectly using continuous head gradient measurements and aquifer properties estimated by slug tests. The discharge measurements made from the seepage meter measurements provide information about the spatial variability perpendicular from shore along and the change in groundwater discharge due to wave action. Algal biomass sampled from substrates and observed using underwater photographs were used to correlate seasonal growth and nutrient concentrations in groundwater and lake water. Results indicate that groundwater and nutrient discharge are temporally variable due to seasonal changes in recharge within the watershed, wave action, and lake stage. Groundwater discharge was enhanced by the seasonally-low lake stage and episodic recharge caused by precipitation falling as rain in the watershed. Increases in dissolved phosphorus and nitrate in the lake during winter are attributed to groundwater discharge and correlates to increases in algal biomass in the nearshore area. Results indicate that nutrient-rich groundwater discharge appears to stimulate seasonal periphyton blooms along the eulittoral zone of Lake Tahoe.

California

The extent of buildings in wildland vegetation of the conterminous U.S. and the potential for conservation in and near National Forest private inholdings

Development in natural areas is a leading threat to biodiversity. Global conservationists have called for the expansion of protected areas to preserve wildlands that are free from buildings, and in the U.S., the ‘America the Beautiful’ initiative aims to protect 30% of land and water areas by 2030 (known as the ‘30x30’ target). Here, we determined opportunities and limitations for conservation in the conterminous U.S. by assessing the extent of buildings in wildland vegetation. We focused specifically on National Forest lands, as these contain numerous private inholdings where development may occur. Using a newly available building footprint dataset, we determined 1) whether buildings were present and 2) numbers of buildings within three distances of wildland vegetation (100, 250, and 500 m), representing varying magnitudes of ecological impact. Our findings revealed that 29% of wildland vegetation nationwide was within 500 m of a building, 15% was within 250 m, and 5% was within 100 m. National Forest lands were less affected by building disturbance, but a substantial proportion (12%) of wildland vegetation area was within 500 m of a building. Of National Forest lands that were within 500 m of an inholding, 76% was not yet in proximity to a building; consequently, ∼10% of National Forest lands (143,474 km 2 ) are susceptible to impacts from future development on inholdings. We conclude that National Forest inholdings are therefore important opportunity areas for 30x30 conservation goals. Our assessments can inform where conservation efforts can limit impacts from present and future development on biodiversity.

Landscape and Urban Planning

Conservation easements and coastal armoring: Protecting sea turtle nesting habitat through property ownership

To determine the relationship between the intent of owners of homes located near sea turtle nesting beaches in the state of Florida to engage in coastal conservation easements (CCE), the theory of planned behavior (TPB), environmental identity (EI) and relevant demographics were analyzed. As CCEs are a novel application of a proven conservation tool, a statewide survey was administered to 1274 property owners living within a mile of a protected section of sea turtle nesting habitat (e.g. state park, preserve, wildlife refuge). Multiple linear regression showed coastal property owners were more likely to engage with a CCE if they believed they had the ability and opportunity, held positive attitudes about entering into a CCE, and identified more favorably with potential CCE motivators for property owners. These motivators include receiving assistance from a conservation organization to manage their beachfront land; conserving beach habitat; obtaining annual tax deductions; and trusting the organization administering a CCE. Knowing these motivators and demographics of coastal property owners can help aid coastal land conservationists in crafting strategies to conserve sea turtle nesting beaches.

Florida

Desert ecosystems shape diversification in glossy snakes (genus Arizona) requiring a re-alignment of evolutionary and conservation units

Subspecies are often targets for conservation, yet many lack the genetic data necessary to validate their status as distinctive evolutionary lineages. In 2016, conservationists faced this issue when designating the California glossy snake, Arizona elegans occidentalis , as a Species of Special Concern in California, a decision prompted by population declines and habitat loss but absent of genetic information about its evolutionary integrity. To address this knowledge gap, we collected genomic and mitochondrial data from a rangewide sample of the Arizona elegans complex ( n = 257) and characterized genetic structure at varying spatial scales. We confirmed an east–west phyletic division within the A. elegans complex that correlates with an ecotone between the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts and pinpoint the separation to a ∼20 km area in southeastern Arizona, USA. Individuals recognized as A. e. occidentalis do not form a genetically cohesive unit within a more inclusive western clade that is sister to the endemic Arizona pacata in Baja California, México. We synonymize four subspecies circumscribed by the western clade and recognize a new species Arizona occidentalis to re-align the taxonomy with the phylogeographic structure. Most of the diversity within A. occidentalis occurs in California, with three major lineages corresponding separate desert biomes. We revise the conservation units within A. occidentalis to mirror these lineages and address concerns regarding habitat loss in transitional environments along the western edge of its range. This work underscores the importance of aligning taxonomy, evolutionary identity, and management units to design the most effective conservation strategies.

Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution

Maintaining wetland ecosystem services in a changing climate

A changing climate is causing challenges for soil and water management in many parts of the world. Current soil management practices need to be redesigned to effectively address present and future fluctuating climates. Soil Hydrology in a Changing Climate explores how soil management practices impact soil hydrological characteristics, and how we can improve our understanding of soil and water management under changing conditions. Soil hydrology includes water infiltration and soil water storage, which are critical for agricultural plant and animal production. With our future climate predicted to include hotter, drier conditions, increases in evapotranspiration as well as fewer, more intense storms, improved soil management and soil hydrology are critical to ensuring our agriculture production can meet human demand. This comprehensive book is a valuable resource for land managers, soil conservationists, researchers and others who wish to understand how different management practices affect soil and water dynamics and how these practices can be adjusted to enhance agricultural sustainability and environmental quality.

Book chapter

Book Reivew: A chance for lasting survival: Ecology and behavior of wild giant pandas

“If we watch species going extinct in front of us, how useful is that we publish 100 or even 1,000 papers by studying them?” (p. 330). This quote from senior author Pan Wenshi captures an important essence of this book. A translation of a 2001 monograph originally published in Chinese, this volume details the findings of a 15-year research program in the Qinling Mountains by Wenshi and his students. Starting in 1984, this Chinese research team from Peking University was only the second to study free-ranging pandas. This is the remarkable journey of a devoted group of field researchers who helped changed the course of giant panda conservation, events that few conservationists outside of China have been aware of until now. Review info: A chance for lasting survival: Ecology and behavior of wild giant pandas. By Pan Wenshi, Lü Zhi, Zhu Xiaojian, Wang Dajun, Wang Hao, Long Yu, Fu Dali, and Zhou Xin; edited by, William J. McShea, Richard B. Harris, David L. Garshelis, and Wang Dajun, 2014. ISBN: 978-1-935623-17-5, 349pp.

The Quarterly Review of Biology

Coordinated river infrastructure decisions improve net social-ecological benefits

We explore the social, ecological, economic, and technical dimensions of sustainable river infrastructure development and the potential benefits of coordinating decisions such as dam removal and stream crossing improvement. Dam removal is common practice for restoring river habitat connectivity and ecosystem health. However, stream crossings such as culverts are often 15 times more abundant than dams and may pose similar ecological impacts. Using multi-objective optimization for a model system of 6100 dams and culverts in Maine, USA, we demonstrate substantial benefit-cost improvements provided by coordinating habitat connectivity decisions. Benefit-cost efficiency improves by two orders of magnitude when coordinating more decisions across wider areas, but this approach may cause inequitable resource distribution. Culvert upgrades improve roadway safety and habitat connectivity, creating cost-effective opportunities for coordinating and cost-sharing projects between conservationists and safety managers. Benefit-cost trends indicate significant overlaps in habitat and safety goals, encouraging flexible stakeholder collaborations and cost-sharing strategies.

Maine

At the end of the road: Lessons learned from comparing model- and design-based approaches to estimate population sizes of boreal birds in Alberta, Canada

Estimating population abundance is a challenging task complicated by the amount, type, and quality of available data. Conservationists have relied on design-based estimates from Partners in Flight (PIF), which primarily uses roadside data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to estimate populations sizes. However, the BBS was not designed to estimate population sizes. We developed models incorporating land cover and climate variables based on roadside and off-road point-count surveys. We calculated spatially explicit, model-based population estimates for 81 landbird species in Bird Conservation Region 6 in Alberta, Canada, and compared these to PIF estimates. We also developed a framework to evaluate how the differences between the detection distance, time-of-day, roadside count, and habitat representation adjustments explain discrepancies between the two estimators. We showed that the key assumptions of the PIF population size estimator were commonly violated in this region, and the two approaches provided very different population size estimates for most species. The average differences between estimators were explained by differences in the detection distance and time-of-day components, but these adjustments left much unexplained variation among species. Differences in the roadside count and habitat representation components explained most of the among-species variation. The variation caused by these factors was large enough to change the population size ranking of the species. The roadside count bias needs serious attention when roadside surveys are used to extrapolate over off-road areas. Habitat representation bias is likely prevalent in regions sparsely and non-representatively sampled by roadside surveys, such as the boreal region of North America, and thus population size estimates for these regions need to be treated with caution for certain species. Model-based integration of available data sources and additional sampling can contribute towards more accurate population size estimates for conservation in remote areas of North America.

Alberta

Importance of riparian forest corridors for the ocelot in agricultural landscapes

Worldwide, private lands have attracted increased attention from conservationists, not only because most of the globe is privately owned, but also because private lands can be an asset to the protected area conservation strategy. In Brazil, the riverine Areas of Permanent Protection (APPs) is a key instrument of the Forest Code to protect native vegetation on private lands. Although APPs were conceived to function as potential wildlife corridors, this putative role has been rarely assessed. Further, recent debatable changes in the Forest Code have decreased the extent of APPs. Given this lack of information and the declining area being protected along with the growing demand for agricultural and biofuel production, which stimulate additional deforestation, it is timely to assess the role of APPs in wildlife conservation. We did this analyzing how ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) occurrence is influenced by covariates in 3 cerrado landscapes dominated by sugarcane and managed forests of eucalyptus and pine trees. We collected detection/non-detection data by camera trapping during 2 dry seasons (2013 and 2014) at 208 stations (6606 camera-days). We estimated ocelot detection and mean relative abundance using a single-species/single-season occupancy model that accounts for heterogeneous detection probability induced by variation in abundance. Modeling results showed that percentage of native forest was the most important covariate to explain ocelot mean relative abundance. This parameter was also affected positively by APPs, with ocelots being more abundant inside than outside APPs and, unexpectedly, by sugarcane. Given study design, however, the positive effect of this crop likely reflects the contact zone between sugarcane and native forest. Our findings show that landscape composition affects ocelot abundance and highlight the importance of APPs and Legal Reserves in agricultural landscapes. We conclude that, in such landscapes, compliance to the Forest Code by private land owners is key to supporting ocelot occurrence.

Journal of Mammalogy

Bridging the research-implementation gap in avian conservation with translational ecology

The recognized gap between research and implementation in avian conservation can be overcome with translational ecology, an intentional approach in which science producers and users from multiple disciplines work collaboratively to co-develop and deliver ecological research that addresses management and conservation issues. Avian conservation naturally lends itself to translational ecology because birds are well studied, typically widespread, often exhibit migratory behaviors transcending geopolitical boundaries, and necessitate coordinated conservation efforts to accommodate resource and habitat needs across the full annual cycle. In this perspective, we highlight several case studies from bird conservation practitioners and the ornithological and conservation social sciences exemplifying the 6 core translational ecology principles introduced in previous studies: collaboration, engagement, commitment, communication, process, and decision-framing. We demonstrate that following translational approaches can lead to improved conservation decision-making and delivery of outcomes via co-development of research and products that are accessible to broader audiences and applicable to specific management decisions (e.g., policy briefs and decision-support tools). We also identify key challenges faced during scientific producer–user engagement, potential tactics for overcoming these challenges, and lessons learned for overcoming the research-implementation gap. Finally, we recommend strategies for building a stronger translational ecology culture to further improve the integration of these principles into avian conservation decisions. By embracing translational ecology, avian conservationists and ornithologists can be well positioned to ensure that future management decisions are scientifically informed and that scientific research is sufficiently relevant to managers. Ultimately, such teamwork can help close the research-implementation gap in the conservation sciences during a time when environmental issues are threatening avian communities and their habitats at exceptional rates and at broadening spatial scales worldwide.

Ornithological Applications

Causal networks clarify productivity-richness interrelations, bivariate plots do not

Perhaps no other pair of variables in ecology has generated as much discussion as species richness and ecosystem productivity, as illustrated by the reactions by Pierce (2013) and others to Adler et al.'s (2011) report that empirical patterns are weak and inconsistent. Adler et al. (2011) argued we need to move beyond a focus on simplistic bivariate relationships and test mechanistic, multivariate causal hypotheses. We feel the continuing debate over productivity–richness relationships (PRRs) provides a focused context for illustrating the fundamental difficulties of using bivariate relationships to gain scientific understanding. Pierce (2013) disputes Adler et al.'s (2011) conclusion that bivariate productivity–richness relationships (PRRs) are ‘weak and variable’. He argues, instead, that relationships in the Adler et al. data are actually strong and, further, that failure to adhere to the humped-back model (HBM; sensu Grime 1979) threatens scientists' ability to advise conservationists. Here, we show that Pierce's reanalyses are invalid, that statistically significant boundary relations in the Adler et al. data are difficult to detect when proper methods are used and that his advice neither advances scientific understanding nor provides the quantitative forecasts actually needed by decision makers. We begin by examining Grimes' HBM through the lens of causal networks. We first translate the ideas contained in the HBM into a causal diagram, which shows explicitly how multiple processes are hypothesized to control biomass production and richness and their interrelationship. We then evaluate the causal diagram using structural equation modelling and example data from a published study of meadows in Finland. Formal analysis rejects the literal translation of the HBM and reveals additional processes at work. This exercise shows how the practice of abstracting systems as causal networks (i) clarifies possible hypotheses, (ii) permits explicit testing and (iii) provides more powerful and useful predictions. Building on the Finnish meadow example, we contrast the utility of bivariate plots compared with structural equation models for investigating underlying processes. Simulations illustrate the fallibility of bivariate analysis as a means of supporting one theory over another, while models based on causal networks can quantify the sensitivity of diversity patterns to both management and natural constraints. A key piece of Pierce's critique of Adler et al.'s conclusions relies on upper boundary regression which he claims to reveal strong relationships between production and richness in Adler et al.'s original data. We demonstrate that this technique shows strong associations in purely random data and is invalid for Adler et al.'s data because it depends on a uniform data distribution. We instead perform quantile regression on both the site-level summaries of the data and the plot-level data (using mixed-model quantile regression). Using a variety of nonlinear curve-fitting approaches, we were unable to detect a significant humped-shape boundary in the Adler et al. data. We reiterate that the bivariate productivity–richness relationships in Adler et al.'s data are weak and variable. We urge ecologists to consider productivity–richness relationships through the lens of causal networks to advance our understanding beyond bivariate analysis. Further, we emphasize that models based on a causal network conceptualization can also provide more meaningful guidance for conservation management than can a bivariate perspective. Measuring only two variables does not permit the evaluation of complex ideas nor resolve debates about underlying mechanisms.

Functional Ecology