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Simulating demography, monitoring, and management decisions to evaluate adaptive management strategies for endangered species

Adaptive management (AM) remains underused in conservation, partly because optimization-based approaches require real-world problems to be substantially simplified. We present an approach to AM based in management strategy evaluation, a method used largely in fisheries. Managers define objectives and nominate alternative adaptive strategies, whose future performance is simulated by integrating ecological, learning and decision processes. We applied this approach to conservation of hihi (Notiomystis cincta) across Aotearoa-New Zealand. For multiple extant and prospective hihi populations, we jointly simulated demographic trends, monitoring, estimation, and decisions including translocations and supplementary feeding. Results confirmed that food supplementation assisted recovery, but was more intensive and expensive. Over 20 years, actively pursuing learning, e.g., by removing food from populations, provided little benefit. Recovery group members supported continuing current management or increasing priority on existing populations before reintroducing new populations. Our method can complement formal optimization-based approaches and improve AM uptake, particularly for programs involving many complex and coordinated decisions.

Conservation Letters

Standards for documenting and monitoring bird reintroduction projects

It would be much easier to assess the effectiveness of different reintroduction methods, and so improve the success of reintroductions, if there was greater standardization in documentation of the methods and outcomes. We suggest a series of standards for documenting and monitoring the methods and outcomes associated with reintroduction projects for birds. Key suggestions are: documenting the planned release before it occurs, specifying the information required on each release, postrelease monitoring occurring at standard intervals of 1 and 5 years (and 10 for long-lived species), carrying out a population estimate unless impractical, distinguishing restocked and existing individuals when supplementing populations, and documenting the results. We suggest these principles would apply, largely unchanged, to other vertebrate classes. Similar methods could be adopted for invertebrates and plants with appropriate modification. We suggest that organizations publicly state whether they will adopt these approaches when undertaking reintroductions. Similar standardization would be beneficial for a wide range of topics in environmental monitoring, ecological studies, and practical conservation.

Conservation Letters

Genetic diversity targets and indicators in the CBD post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework must be improved

The 196 parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) will soon agree to a post-2020 global framework for conserving the three elements of biodiversity (genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity) while ensuring sustainable development and benefit sharing. As the most significant global conservation policy mechanism, the new CBD framework has far-reaching consequences- it will guide conservation actions and reporting for each member country until 2050. In previous CBD strategies, as well as other major conservation policy mechanisms, targets and indicators for genetic diversity (variation at the DNA level within species, which facilitates species adaptation and ecosystem function) were undeveloped and focused on species of agricultural relevance. We assert that, to meet global conservation goals, genetic diversity within all species, not just domesticated species and their wild relatives, must be conserved and monitored using appropriate metrics . Building on suggestions in a recent Letter in Science (Laikre et al., 2020) we expand argumentation for three new, pragmatic genetic indicators and modifications to two current indicators for maintaining genetic diversity and adaptive capacity of all species, and provide guidance on their practical use. The indicators are: 1) the number of populations with effective population size above versus below 500, 2) the proportion of populations maintained within species, 3) the number of species and populations in which genetic diversity is monitored using DNA-based methods. We also present and discuss Goals and Action Targets for post-2020 biodiversity conservation which are connected to these indicators and underlying data. These pragmatic indicators and goals have utility beyond the CBD; they should benefit conservation and monitoring of genetic diversity via national and global policy for decades to come.

Biological Conservation

Report on a pumping test at Evansville, Indiana

The City of Evansville, Ind. has utilized the Ohio River as a source of municipal water supply for many years. The average daily pumpage for the city in 1950 was reported to be about 18.5 million gallons. Because of the extreme variability in the quality of the river water and the extensive treatment necessary, the city considered the possibility of developing a ground-water supply to supplement its present surface-water supply. In February, 1951 Mr. Oliver N. Summers, General Superintendent, Evansville Waterworks Department, in a letter to C.K. Behert, Director, Division of Water Resources, Indiana Department of Conservation, requested the assistance of the Department of Conservation and the United States Geological Survey in conducting a pumping test to determine the hydraulic characteristics of the water-bearing formations in the area. In view of the importance of Evansville as an industrial center and realizing the need for quantitative information in such an area, it was decided that the test should be a part of the statewide investigation of the ground-water resources now being made by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Conservation. This memorandum describes the procedure used in making the test and the results obtained from the test.

Indiana

How a national vegetation classification can help ecological research and management

The elegance of classification lies in its ability to compile and systematize various terminological conventions and masses of information that are unattainable during typical research projects. Imagine a discipline without standards for collection, analysis, and interpretation; unfortunately, that describes much of 20th-century vegetation ecology. With differing methods, how do we assess community dynamics over decades, much less centuries? How do we compare plant communities from different areas? The need for a widely applied vegetation classification has long been clear. Now imagine a multi-decade effort to assimilate hundreds of disparate vegetation classifications into one common classification for the US. In this letter, we introduce the US National Vegetation Classification (USNVC; www.usnvc.org) as a powerful tool for research and conservation, analogous to the argument made by Schimel and Chadwick (2013) for soils. The USNVC provides a national framework to classify and describe vegetation; here we describe the USNVC and offer brief examples of its efficacy.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Does biodiversity protect humans against infectious disease? Reply

The dilution effect is the sort of idea that everyone wants to be true. If nature protects humans against infectious disease, imagine the implications: nature's value could be tallied in terms of human suffering avoided . This makes a potent argument for conservation, convincing even to those who would otherwise be disinclined to support conservation initiatives. The appeal of the dilution effect has been recognized by others: “the desire to make the case for conservation has led to broad claims regarding the benefits of nature conservation for human health” (Bauch et al. 2015 ). Randolph and Dobson ( 2012 ) were among the first to critique these claims, making the case that promotion of conservation to reduce Lyme disease risk, although well intentioned, was flawed. Along with Randolph and Dobson's critique, there have been several calls for a more nuanced scientific assessment of the relationship between biodiversity and disease transmission (Dunn 2010 , Salkeld et al. 2013 , Wood and Lafferty 2013 , Young et al. 2013 ). In response, supporters of the dilution effect have instead increased the scope of their generalizations with review papers, press releases, and, like Levi et al. (2015), letters. These responses have been successful; it is not uncommon to read papers that repeat the assertion that biodiversity generally interferes with disease transmission and that conservation will therefore generally benefit human health. Here, we explain how Levi et al. (2015) and other, similar commentaries use selective interpretation and shifting definitions to argue for the generality of the dilution effect hypothesis.

Ecology

Macrogenetic studies must not ignore limitations of genetic markers and scale

Millette et al . (Ecology Letters, 2020, 23:55–67) reported no consistent worldwide anthropogenic effects on animal genetic diversity using repurposed mitochondrial DNA sequences. We reexamine data from this study, describe genetic marker and scale limitations which might lead to misinterpretations with conservation implications, and provide advice to improve future macrogenetic studies.

Ecology Letters

Holocene aridification of India

Spanning a latitudinal range typical for deserts, the Indian peninsula is fertile instead and sustains over a billion people through monsoonal rains. Despite the strong link between climate and society, our knowledge of the long‐term monsoon variability is incomplete over the Indian subcontinent. Here we reconstruct the Holocene paleoclimate in the core monsoon zone (CMZ) of the Indian peninsula using a sediment core recovered offshore from the mouth of Godavari River. Carbon isotopes of sedimentary leaf waxes provide an integrated and regionally extensive record of the flora in the CMZ and document a gradual increase in aridity‐adapted vegetation from ∼4,000 until 1,700 years ago followed by the persistence of aridity‐adapted plants after that. The oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber detects unprecedented high salinity events in the Bay of Bengal over the last 3,000 years, and especially after 1,700 years ago, which suggest that the CMZ aridification intensified in the late Holocene through a series of sub‐millennial dry episodes. Cultural changes occurred across the Indian subcontinent as the climate became more arid after ∼4,000 years. Sedentary agriculture took hold in the drying central and south India, while the urban Harappan civilization collapsed in the already arid Indus basin. The establishment of a more variable hydroclimate over the last ca. 1,700 years may have led to the rapid proliferation of water‐conservation technology in south India.

Geophysical Research Letters

Wind, sun, and wildlife: Do wind and solar energy development “short-circuit” conservation in the western United States?

Despite the trade-offs between renewable energy development, land use, humans, and wildlife, wind and solar development continues to transform the southwestern US into a green energy landscape. While renewable energy reduces carbon emissions and reliance on fossil fuels, many studies have emerged on the associated ecological and social impacts of this technology. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the nexus between wildlife conservation and energy development in the western US since 2010. We revisit pertinent ecological concepts and questions presented in earlier reviews to assess how far the field has progressed in mitigating negative effects. Specifically, we ask, what density or design of development maximizes energy benefits while minimizing negative effects on wildlife, whether the results of previously-deficient before-after control-impact studies are now more readily-available, and ultimately, can the impacts of renewable energy development on wildlife be mitigated? We also provide a case study on the federally-protected Desert Tortoise, a conservation-reliant species in the Desert Southwest US, to highlight efforts to mitigate the negative effects of renewable energy development. Our review concludes that successful mitigation is possible via use of spatial decision support tools, applying novel wildlife deterrence and detection systems developed for existing installed facilities, and incorporating impact studies that provide managers with conservation metrics for evaluating different future development land-use scenarios.

Environmental Research Letters

Artificial light at night confounds broad-scale habitat use by migrating birds

With many of the world's migratory bird populations in alarming decline, broad-scale assessments of responses to migratory hazards may prove crucial to successful conservation efforts. Most birds migrate at night through increasingly light-polluted skies. Bright light sources can attract airborne migrants and lead to collisions with structures, but might also influence selection of migratory stopover habitat and thereby acquisition of food resources. We demonstrate, using multi-year weather radar measurements of nocturnal migrants across the northeastern U.S., that autumnal migrant stopover density increased at regional scales with proximity to the brightest areas, but decreased within a few kilometers of brightly-lit sources. This finding implies broad-scale attraction to artificial light while airborne, impeding selection for extensive forest habitat. Given that high-quality stopover habitat is critical to successful migration, and hindrances during migration can decrease fitness, artificial lights present a potentially heightened conservation concern for migratory bird populations.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse

Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird

Few regions have been more severely impacted by climate change in the USA than the Desert Southwest. Here, we use ecological genomics to assess the potential for adaptation to rising global temperatures in a widespread songbird, the willow flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii ), and find the endangered desert southwestern subspecies ( E. t. extimus ) most vulnerable to future climate change. Highly significant correlations between present abundance and estimates of genomic vulnerability – the mismatch between current and predicted future genotype–environment relationships – indicate small, fragmented populations of the southwestern willow flycatcher will have to adapt most to keep pace with climate change. Links between climate‐associated genotypes and genes important to thermal tolerance in birds provide a potential mechanism for adaptation to temperature extremes. Our results demonstrate that the incorporation of genotype–environment relationships into landscape‐scale models of climate vulnerability can facilitate more precise predictions of climate impacts and help guide conservation in threatened and endangered groups.

Ecology Letters

Understanding tidal marsh trajectories: Evaluation of multiple indicators of marsh persistence

Robust assessments of ecosystem stability are critical for informing conservation and management decisions. Tidal marsh ecosystems provide vital services, yet are globally threatened by anthropogenic alterations to physical and biological processes. A variety of monitoring and modeling approaches have been undertaken to determine which tidal marshes are likely to persist into the future. Here, we conduct the most robust comparison of marsh metrics to date, building on two foundational studies that had previously and independently developed metrics for marsh condition. We characterized pairs of marshes with contrasting trajectories (of marsh cover ) across six regions of the United States, using a combination of remote-sensing and field-based metrics. We also quantified decadal trends in marsh conversion to mudflat/open water at these twelve marshes. Our results suggest that metrics quantifying the distribution of vegetation across an elevational gradient represent the best indicators of marsh trajectories. The unvegetated to vegetated ratio and flood-ebb sediment differential also served as valuable indicators. No single metric universally predicted marsh trajectories, and therefore a more robust approach includes a suite of spatially integrated, landscape-scale metrics that are mostly obtainable from remote sensing. Data from surface elevation tables and marker horizons revealed that degrading marshes can have higher rates of vertical accretion and elevation gain than more intact counterparts, likely due to longer inundation times potentially combined with internal recycling of material. A high rate of elevation gain relative to local sea-level rise has been considered critical to marsh persistence, but our results suggest that it also may serve as a signature of degradation in marshes that have already begun to deteriorate. This investigation, with rigorous comparison and integration of metrics initially developed independently, tested at a broad geographic scale, provides a model for collaborative science to develop management tools for improving conservation outcomes.

Environmental Research Letters

Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a critically endangered population through captive breeding, control of invasive species, construction of biodiversity reserves, design of landscapes to increase habitat connectivity, and resource exploitation. Although these decision making problems and their solutions present significant challenges, we suggest that a systematic and effective approach to dynamic decision making in conservation need not be an onerous undertaking. The requirements are shared with any systematic approach to decision making--a careful consideration of values, actions, and outcomes.

Environmental Research Letters

Hydrologic Unit Map -- 1974, State of Michigan

This map and accompanying table show Hydrologic Units that are basically hydrographic in nature. The Cataloging Units shown will supplant the Cataloging Units previously used by the U.S. Geological Survey in its Catalog of Information on Water Data (1966-72). The previous U.S. Geological Survey Catalog-Indexing System was by map number and letter, such as 49 M. The boundaries shown have been adapted from "The Catalog of Information on Water Data" (1972), "Water Resources Regions and Subregions for the National Assessment of Water and Related Land Resources" by the U.S. Water Resources Council (1970), " River Basins of the United States" by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service (1963, 1970), "River Basin Maps Showing Hydrologic Stations" by the Inter-Agency Committee on Water Resources, Subcommittee on Hydrology (1961), and States planning maps.

Michigan

Hydrologic Unit Map - 1974, state of Montana

This map and accompanying table show Hydrologic Units that are basically hydrographic in nature. The Cataloging Units shown will supplant the Cataloging Units previously used by the U.S. Geological Survey in its Catalog of Informaiton on Water Data (1966-72). The previous U.S. Geological Survey Catalog-Indexing System was by map number and letter, such as 49M. The boundaries as shown have been adapted from "The Catalog of Information on Water Data" (1972), "Water Resources Regions and Subregions for the National Assessment of Water and Related Land Resources" by the U.S. Water Reseources Council (1970), "River Basins of the United States" by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service ((1963, 1970), "River Basin Maps Showing Hydrologic Stations" by the Inter-Agency Committee on Water Resources, Subcommittee on Hydrology (1961), and State planning maps.

Montana

Hydrologic unit map:1974, State of Utah

This map and accompanying table show Hydrologic Units that are basically hydrographic in nature. The Cataloging Units shown will supplant the Cataloging Units previously used by the U.S. Geological Survey in its Catalog of Information on Water Data (1966-72). The previous U.S. Geological Survey Catalog-Indexing System was by map number and letter, such as 49M. the boundaries as shown have been adapted from “the Catalog of Information on Water Data” (1972), “Water Resources Regions and Subregions for the National Assessment of Water and Related Land Resources” by the U.S. Water Resources Council (1970), “River Basins of the United States” by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service (1963, 1970), “River Basin Maps Showing Hydrologic Stations” by the Inter-Agency Committee on Water Resourres, Subcommittee on hydrology (1961), and State planning maps.

Utah

Parasite‐mediated competition limits dominant cervid competitor

Species interactions structure ecological communities through direct and indirect pathways with ecosystem-wide implications. Despite mounting interest in the importance of indirect interactions, empirical evidence remains limited. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of parasite-mediated competition in driving community outcomes in a multi-species system of conservation and management concern. We leveraged 2 years of detection/non-detection data of moose ( Alces alces ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and parasite loads in faecal samples within a hierarchical abundance-mediated interaction model to test hypotheses regarding interactions between these cervids and their shared parasites ( Parelaphostrongylus tenuis , Fascioloides magna ). We demonstrate that moose occupancy was limited by parasite-mediated competition, with no evidence of population-level effects of direct competitive interactions between moose and white-tailed deer. Such evidence of the importance of indirect interactions and resulting community outcomes is critical for species conservation and managing range contractions due to increasing pressures from habitat loss, disease and climate change.

New York

Delta-Flux: An eddy covariance network for a climate-smart Lower Mississippi Basin

Networks of remotely monitored research sites are increasingly the tool used to study regional agricultural impacts on carbon and water fluxes. However, key national networks such as the National Ecological Observatory Network and AmeriFlux lack contributions from the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB), a highly productive agricultural area with opportunities for soil carbon sequestration through conservation practices. The authors describe the rationale to create the new Delta-Flux network, which will coordinate efforts to quantify carbon and water budgets at seventeen eddy covariance flux tower sites in the LMRB. The network structure will facilitate climate-smart management strategies based on production-scale and continuous measurements of carbon and water fluxes from the landscape to the atmosphere under different soil and water management conditions. The seventeen instrumented field sites are expected to monitor fluxes within the most characteristic landscapes of the target area: row-crop fields, pasture, grasslands, forests, and marshes. The network participants are committed to open collaboration and efficient regionalization of site-level findings to support sustainable agricultural and forestry management and conservation of natural resources.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi