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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Chapter J: Issues and challenges in the application of geostatistics and spatial-data analysis to the characterization of sand-and-gravel resources

Sand-and-gravel (aggregate) resources are a critical component of the Nation's infrastructure, yet aggregate-mining technologies lag far behind those of metalliferous mining and other sectors. Deposit-evaluation and site-characterization methodologies are antiquated, and few serious studies of the potential applications of spatial-data analysis and geostatistics have been published. However, because of commodity usage and the necessary proximity of a mine to end use, aggregate-resource exploration and evaluation differ fundamentally from comparable activities for metalliferous ores. Acceptable practices, therefore, can reflect this cruder scale. The increasing use of computer technologies is colliding with the need for sand-and-gravel mines to modernize and improve their overall efficiency of exploration, mine planning, scheduling, automation, and other operations. The emergence of megaquarries in the 21st century will also be a contributing factor. Preliminary research into the practical applications of exploratory-data analysis (EDA) have been promising. For example, EDA was used to develop a linear-regression equation to forecast freeze-thaw durability from absorption values for Lower Paleozoic carbonate rocks mined for crushed aggregate from quarries in Oklahoma. Applications of EDA within a spatial context, a method of spatial-data analysis, have also been promising, as with the investigation of undeveloped sand-and-gravel resources in the sedimentary deposits of Pleistocene Lake Bonneville, Utah. Formal geostatistical investigations of sand-and-gravel deposits are quite rare, and the primary focus of those studies that have been completed is on the spatial characterization of deposit thickness and its subsequent effect on ore reserves. A thorough investigation of a gravel deposit in an active aggregate-mining area in central Essex, U.K., emphasized the problems inherent in the geostatistical characterization of particle-size-analysis data. Beyond such factors as common drilling methods jeopardizing the accuracy of the size-distribution curve, the application of formal geostatistical principles has other limitations. Many of the variables used in evaluating gravel deposits, including such sedimentologic parameters as sorting and such United Soil Classification System parameters as gradation coefficient, are nonadditive. Also, uniform sampling methods, such as drilling, are relatively uncommon, and sampling is generally accomplished by a combination of boreholes, water-well logs, test pits, trenches, stratigraphic columns from exposures, and, possibly, some geophysical cross sections. When evaluated in consideration of the fact that uniform mining blocks are also uncommon in practice, subsequent complexities in establishment of the volume/variance relation are inevitable. Several approaches exist to confront the limitations of geostatistical methods in evaluating sand-and-gravel deposits. Initially, we must acknowledge the practical requirements of the aggregate industry, as well as the limitations of the data collected by that industry, as a function of what the industry requires at the practical level, and consider that broader acceptance of formal geostatistics may require modifications of typical exploration and sampling protocols. Future investigations should utilize data from the full spectrum of sand-and-gravel deposits (flood plain, glacial, catastrophic flood, and marine), integrate such other disci plines as sedimentology and geophysics into the research, develop commodity-specific approaches to nonadditive variables, and include the results of comparative drilling.

Bulletin↗

Data resources for NGA-subduction project

A relational database was developed over a five-year period to support ground motion model (GMM) development for the Next Generation Attenuation-Subduction (NGA-Sub) project. The relational database has components that interact according to a database schema, including a source and path component used to describe attributes of seismic sources in global subduction regions and to compute source-to-site distances, a site component that describes attributes of sites where recordings have been made, and a ground motion component. The source component of the database has information for 1880 earthquakes, mainly from the following regions: the Pacific Northwest region of North America, Alaska and the Aleutian Islands, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand, South America, Central America, and Mexico. Of the 1880 earthquakes, 88 have finite fault models (FFMs) from the literature that were systematically reviewed, distilled to one more rectangular shapes, and trimmed according to procedures based on percentage of total slip. For earthquakes without FFMs, a simulation routine is used to represent finite fault effects required for distance calculations. This simulation routine was adjusted and made more uniform in its application than in prior NGA projects. All earthquakes are classified as interface, intraslab, shallow crustal, or outer rise, using uniform protocols developed for this project. All earthquakes are also assigned class designations adapted from a prior NGA project for active regions, that allows foreshock, mainshock, and aftershock events to be distinguished. The site component of the database is described in a companion paper (Ahdi et al. 2020 [1]). The ground motion component of the database consists of median – and maximum – horizontal component peak parameters (peak ground acceleration, PGA and peak ground velocity, PGV) and pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSa) at 111 oscillator periods and 11 damping ratios. Response spectra were also computed for the vertical component. Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) and duration metrics were also computed. The ground motion recordings were obtained from collaborating organizations world-wide as uncorrected (Vol 1) digital recordings, that were corrected (componentspecific low – and high – pass filters and baseline correction, as needed) following Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER)/NGA protocols. The relational database operates on each of these (and other) database components to dynamically draw relevant parameters into a single file, known as a flatfile, that is used by researchers engaged in GMM development. The flatfiles used in model development are being published with the NGA-Sub GMMs as products of the NGA-Sub project.

Extramural-Authored Publication Paper↗

Test and calibration of the Digital World-Wide Standardized Seismograph

During the past decade there has been steady progress in the modernization of the global seismograph network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The World-Wide Standardized Seismograph Network (WWSSN) has been augmented by new stations with advanced instrumentation, including the Seismic Research Observatories (SRO) and the modified High-Gain Long-Period (ASRO) stations. One goal in the modernization effort has been to improve signal resolution in the long-period band. A second goal has been to generate a global digital data base to support contemporary computer-based analysis and research. In 1976, a Panel on Seismograph Networks was established by the Committee on Seismology of the National Academy of Sciences to review progress in network seismology and recommend actions that would lead to an improved global data base for seismology. One recommendation in the Panel report (Engdahl, 1977) called for upgrading selected WWSSN stations by the installation of digital recorders. This was viewed as an economical way of expanding the digital network, which had proven itself to be a very promising new tool for earthquake and explosion research. Funds for the development and assembly of 15 digital recorders were provided to the USGS by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and an ad Inoc panel of scientists was convened by the Committee on Seismology to advise the USGS on the selection of stations to be upgraded and on data recording requirements, A total of 19 digital World-Wide Standardized Seismograph (DWWSS) systems will be operational when all are installed. The additional systems were made available through purchase by the USGS and other organizations; for example, the University of Bergen purchased and installed a DWWSS-type recorder and agreed to furnish the USGS with the data. A list of operational and planned DWWSS network stations is given in Table 1.1. As one might expect, the digital recorder turned out to be somewhat more sophisticated than the original concept. It was decided to record three components of long-period data continuously, three components of intermediateperiod data in an event mode, and the vertical-component short-period data in and event mode (with the capability of adding short-period horizontal channels in the future). Special amplifiers were developed for use with the WWSS seismometers, and a 16-bit fixed-point analog-to-digital converter was chosen to provide increased resolution (as opposed to a 16-bit gain-ranged encoder). The microprocessor-based digital recording systems were developed and assembled at the USGS Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) and ASL-based technicians began installation at WWSSN stations in 1980. The current and proposed locations of the DWWSSN stations, together with other stations in the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN), are shown on the map in Figure 1.1. A system was operated at Albuquerque for about 18 months, serving as a test bed for evaluation studies. Although the network hardware has been available for some time, the installation of the DWWSSN has proceeded slowly. The National Science Foundation supported installation of six stations and the USGS is funding installation of most of the others; however, the network completion date is conjectural because of funding uncertainties. The DWWSSN stations are supported with supplies and technical assistance from ASL (subject to availability of funds). Data recorded on magnetic tapes are mailed to ASL where they are reviewed for quality, then merged with other GDSN station data on the network-day tapes. Hoffman (1980) provides a description of the network-day tape format. Zirbes and Buland (1981) have developed and published user software for reading and interpreting the day tapes. This report will serve several purposes. One is to provide nominal system transfer functions and calibration information that are needed in the analysis of DWWSSN data. A second purpose is to report on an evaluation of operating characteristics (calibration stability, noise levels, and linearity) that may limit the usefulness of the data and to determine if modifications may be needed to improve the data. It is not an exhaustive study in this respect. We continue to depend mostly on data user feedback to point out deficiencies and we solicit comments whenever anomalies are observed in the data.

Open-File Report↗

SKHASH: A python package for computing earthquake focal mechanisms

We introduce a Python package for computing focal mechanism solutions. This algorithm, which we refer to as SKHASH, is largely based on the HASH algorithm originally written in Fortran over 20 yr ago. HASH innovated the use of suites of solutions, spanning the expected errors in polarities and takeoff angles, to estimate focal mechanism uncertainty. SKHASH benefits from new features with flexible input formats and allows users to take advantage of recent advances in constraining focal mechanisms for small magnitude or poorly recorded earthquakes. The 3D locations of earthquakes and the velocity models used are varied when finding acceptable solutions. As a result, source–receiver azimuths are reflective of errors from the earthquake locations and velocity models, in addition to the takeoff angles. Users can consider weighted P ‐wave first‐motion polarities derived from traditional or machine‐learning picks, cross‐correlation consensus, and/or imputation techniques using SKHASH. Focal mechanism solutions can also be further constrained using traditional, machine learning, and/or cross‐correlation consensus S / P amplitude ratios. With improved reporting of individual and collective P polarity and S / P amplitude misfits, users can better evaluate the success of the solutions and the quality of the measurements. The reporting also makes it easier to identify potential issues with metadata, including incorrectly reported station polarity reversals. In addition, by leveraging vectorized operations, taking advantage of an efficient backend Python C Application Programming Interface, and the use of a parallel environment, the Python SKHASH routine may compute mechanisms quicker than the HASH routine.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Microbial and Nutrient Concentration and Load Data During Stormwater Runoff at a Swine Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation in the North Carolina Coastal Plain, 2006-2007

This report summarizes water-quality and hydrologic data collected during 2006-2007 to characterize bacteria and nutrient loads associated with overland runoff and subsurface tile drainage in spray fields at a swine concentrated animal feeding operation. Four monitoring locations were established at the Lizzie Research Site in the North Carolina Coastal Plain Physiographic Province for collecting discharge and water-quality data during stormwater-runoff events. Water stage was measured continuously at each monitoring location. A stage-discharge relation was developed for each site and was used to compute instantaneous discharge values for collected samples. Water-quality samples were collected for five storm events during 2006-2007 for analysis of nutrients and fecal indicator bacteria. Instantaneous loads of nitrite plus nitrate, total coliform, Escherichia coli (E. coli), and enterococci were computed for selected times during the five storm events.

North Carolina↗

Flooding Associated with Typhoon Chata'an, July 5, 2002, Guam

Introduction On July 5, 2002, starting at about 8 a.m., the southern half of the eye of Typhoon Chata'an passed directly over the northern part of the island of Guam. Data collected on Guam indicate that the typhoon had sustained winds of 85 to 90 miles per hour (mi/hr) with gusts of up to 115 mi/hr (Charles Guard, National Weather Service, written commun., 2003). Storm rainfall totals exceeded 21 inches (in.) over the mountainous areas in south-central Guam. During the peak of the storm, rain fell at rates of up to 6.48 inches per hour (in/hr). Because of the damage caused by Typhoon Chata'an, the President signed a major disaster declaration on July 6, 2002. Damages associated with Typhoon Chata'an, while considered moderate relative to other storms that have affected Guam, amounted to several tens of millions of dollars. In excess of 1,000 single-family and multi-family homes were either extensively damaged or destroyed. Electrical power was out for several days over most of the island and no potable water was available through public distribution systems (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). The extreme rainfall led to flooding in southern Guam and caused numerous landslides and severe erosion along water courses. The most significant evidence of these effects could be found in the Fena Valley Reservoir, where elevated sediment concentrations made the water unsuitable for use as a domestic water supply for several days. During normal operation, Fena Valley Reservoir supplies most of the drinking water for the military and some of the general public in southern Guam. All of the stream-gaging stations operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on Guam were damaged to some extent during the flood and three of the stations were totally destroyed. Peak flows in many rivers in southern Guam reached record levels during Typhoon Chata'an. New record peak stages and/or flows of record occurred at 14 of 15 sites where the USGS has collected data. In some areas, the magnitude of flood peaks exceeded previous records significantly. Peak flows had recurrence intervals of 80 years or more at 9 of the 13 sites where sufficient data were available to make the computations. Four of the 9 sites had recurrence intervals that were determined to be greater than 100 years. In this fact sheet, storm rainfall totals and maximum rainfall totals for durations of 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-hours are summarized for 12 rain gages on Guam. Peak stages and/or flows were computed at 15 USGS streamflow-gaging stations and recurrence intervals for the peaks determined. Rainfall and streamflow-gaging stations operated by the USGS on Guam are supported by funding provided by numerous agencies including the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the University of Guam through the Water and Environmental Research Institute (WERI). The USGS Office of Surface Water, as part of a national program to document the effects of extreme floods in the United States, provided funding to support the preparation of this fact sheet.

Fact Sheet↗

PRISM Software: Processing and Review Interface for Strong‐Motion Data

A continually increasing number of high‐quality digital strong‐motion records from stations of the National Strong Motion Project (NSMP) of the U.S. Geological Survey, as well as data from regional seismic networks within the United States, calls for automated processing of strong‐motion records with human review limited to selected significant or flagged records. The NSMP has developed the Processing and Review Interface for Strong Motion data (PRISM) software to meet this need. In combination with the Advanced National Seismic System Quake Monitoring System (AQMS), PRISM automates the processing of strong‐motion records. When used without AQMS, PRISM provides batch‐processing capabilities. The PRISM software is platform independent (coded in Java), open source, and does not depend on any closed‐source or proprietary software. The software consists of two major components: a record processing engine composed of modules for each processing step, and a review tool, which is a graphical user interface for manual review, edit, and processing. To facilitate use by non‐NSMP earthquake engineers and scientists, PRISM (both its processing engine and review tool) is easy to install and run as a stand‐alone system on common operating systems such as Linux, OS X, and Windows. PRISM was designed to be flexible and extensible to accommodate implementation of new processing techniques. All the computing features have been thoroughly tested.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Application of a simple cerebellar model to geologic surface mapping

Neurophysiological research into the structure and function of the cerebellum has inspired computational models that simulate information processing associated with coordination and motor movement. The cerebellar model arithmetic computer (CMAC) has a design structure which makes it readily applicable as an automated mapping device that "senses" a surface, based on a sample of discrete observations of surface elevation. The model operates as an iterative learning process, where cell weights are continuously modified by feedback to improve surface representation. The storage requirements are substantially less than those of a conventional memory allocation, and the model is extended easily to mapping in multidimensional space, where the memory savings are even greater. ?? 1991.

Computers & Geosciences↗

The Station Information System (SIS): A centralized seismic station repository for populating, managing, and distributing metadata

Creating, maintaining, and archiving accurate station metadata is critical for successful seismic network operations, data discovery, and research. The Station Information System (SIS) is a centralized repository of seismic station equipment inventory, instrument response, and site information of stations operated by regional seismic networks (RSNs) of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS; Filson and Arabasz, 2017 ). It has a web‐based user interface that enables the creation and manipulation of the corresponding metadata. The system can track the installation, maintenance, and removal of equipment from a site, which often results in the creation of new metadata epochs. SIS also computes the overall response, including gain, of a data channel by combining the responses of the underlying hardware components. SIS distributes this information in standard formats such as Federation of Digital Seismic Networks StationXML and dataless Standard for the Exchange of Earthquake Data. SIS can also be used to manage inventory of field equipment such as power, telemetry, or Global Positioning System antenna, as well as links to other site‐related repositories external to SIS to give the network operator the most complete view of a site and the overall network. This article summarizes the main features in SIS. We present its basic infrastructure, holdings, workflow, and how RSNs retrieve data from it. We also explain the reasoning to pursue one centralized repository and why it supports the goals of SIS and the ANSS. We demonstrate that by providing the ANSS network operator with a comprehensive site view, SIS enables the production of high‐quality metadata, a necessary prerequisite for producing high‐quality seismic data.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Improving the operational simplified surface energy balance evapotranspiration model using the forcing and normalizing operation

Actual evapotranspiration modeling is providing useful information for researchers and resource managers in agriculture and water resources around the world. The performance of models depends on the accuracy of forcing inputs and model parameters. We developed an improved approach to the parameterization of the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model using the Forcing and Normalizing Operation (FANO). SSEBop has two key model parameters that define the model boundary conditions. The FANO algorithm computes the wet-bulb boundary condition using a linear FANO Equation relating surface temperature, surface psychrometric constant, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The FANO parameterization was implemented on two computing platforms using Landsat and gridded meteorological datasets: (1) Google Earth Engine (GEE) and (2) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center Science Processing Architecture (ESPA). Evaluation was conducted by comparing modeled actual evapotranspiration ( ETa ) estimates with AmeriFlux eddy covariance (EC) and water balance ETa from level-8 Hydrologic Unit Code sub-basins in the conterminous United States. FANO brought substantial improvements in model accuracy and operational implementation. Compared to the earlier version (v0.1.7), SSEBop FANO (v0.2.6) reduced grassland bias from 47% to −2% while maintaining comparable bias for croplands (11% versus −7%) against EC data. A water balance-based ETa bias evaluation showed an overall improvement from 7% to −1%. Climatology versus annual gridded reference evapotranspiration ( ETr ) produced comparable ETa results, justifying the use of climatology ETr for the global SSEBop Landsat ETa that is accessible through the ESPA website. Besides improvements in model accuracy, SSEBop FANO increases the spatiotemporal coverage of ET modeling due to the elimination of high NDVI requirements for model parameterization. Because of the existence of potential biases from forcing inputs and model parameters, continued evaluation and bias corrections are necessary to improve the absolute magnitude of ETa for localized water budget applications.

Remote Sensing↗

Analyzing high resolution topography for advancing the understanding of mass and energy transfer through landscapes: A review

The study of mass and energy transfer across landscapes has recently evolved to comprehensive considerations acknowledging the role of biota and humans as geomorphic agents, as well as the importance of small-scale landscape features. A contributing and supporting factor to this evolution is the emergence over the last two decades of technologies able to acquire high resolution topography (HRT) (meter and sub-meter resolution) data. Landscape features can now be captured at an appropriately fine spatial resolution at which surface processes operate; this has revolutionized the way we study Earth-surface processes. The wealth of information contained in HRT also presents considerable challenges. For example, selection of the most appropriate type of HRT data for a given application is not trivial. No definitive approach exists for identifying and filtering erroneous or unwanted data, yet inappropriate filtering can create artifacts or eliminate/distort critical features. Estimates of errors and uncertainty are often poorly defined and typically fail to represent the spatial heterogeneity of the dataset, which may introduce bias or error for many analyses. For ease of use, gridded products are typically preferred rather than the more information-rich point cloud representations. Thus many users take advantage of only a fraction of the available data, which has furthermore been subjected to a series of operations often not known or investigated by the user. Lastly, standard HRT analysis work-flows are yet to be established for many popular HRT operations, which has contributed to the limited use of point cloud data. In this review, we identify key research questions relevant to the Earth-surface processes community within the theme of mass and energy transfer across landscapes and offer guidance on how to identify the most appropriate topographic data type for the analysis of interest. We describe the operations commonly performed from raw data to raster products and we identify key considerations and suggest appropriate work-flows for each, pointing to useful resources and available tools. Future research directions should stimulate further development of tools that take advantage of the wealth of information contained in the HRT data and address the present and upcoming research needs such as the ability to filter out unwanted data, compute spatially variable estimates of uncertainty and perform multi-scale analyses. While we focus primarily on HRT applications for mass and energy transfer, we envision this review to be relevant beyond the Earth-surface processes community for a much broader range of applications involving the analysis of HRT.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

Mapping actual evapotranspiration using Landsat for the conterminous United States: Google Earth Engine implementation and assessment of the SSEBop model

The estimation and mapping of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an active area of applied research in the fields of agriculture and water resources. Thermal remote sensing-based methods, using coarse resolution satellites, have been successful at estimating ETa over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and other regions of the world. In this study, we present CONUS-wide ETa from Landsat thermal imagery-using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform. Over 150,000 Landsat satellite images were used to produce 10 years of annual ETa (2010–2019) at unprecedented scale. The accuracy assessment of the SSEBop results included point-based evaluation using monthly Eddy Covariance (EC) data from 25 AmeriFlux stations as well as basin-scale comparison with annual Water Balance ETa (WBET) for more than 1000 sub-basins. Evaluations using EC data showed generally mixed performance with weaker (R 2 < 0.6) correlation on sparsely vegetated surfaces such as grasslands or woody savanna and stronger correlation (R 2 > 0.7) over well-vegetated surfaces such as croplands and forests, but location-specific conditions rather than cover type were attributed to the variability in accuracy. Croplands performed best with R 2 of 0.82, root mean square error of 29 mm/month, and average bias of 12%. The WBET evaluation indicated that the SSEBop model is strong in explaining the spatial variability (up to R 2 > 0.90) of ETa across large basins, but it also identified broad hydro-climatic regions where the SSEBop ETa showed directional biases, requiring region-specific model parameter improvement and/or bias correction with an overall 7% bias nationwide. Annual ETa anomalies over the 10-year period captured widely reported drought-affected regions, for the most part, in different parts of the CONUS, indicating their potential applications for mapping regional- and field-scale drought and fire effects. Due to the coverage of the Landsat Path/Row system, the availability of cloud-free image pixels ranged from less than 12 (mountainous cloud-prone regions and U.S. Northeast) to more than 60 (U.S. Southwest) per year. However, this study reinforces a promising application of Landsat satellite data with cloud-computing for quick and efficient mapping of ETa for agricultural and water resources assessments at the field scale.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

Science of Tsunami Hazards↗

Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations. A statistical change-factor approach was used to construct future climate time series that were used in the precipitation-runoff model to compute time series of future streamflows and reservoir water levels. Monthly change factors were computed by determining differences or fractional changes between baseline historical climate time series and future climate time series consisting of outputs from selected global climate models that were included in the World Climate Research Programme&rsquo;s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Eight sets of change factors were determined on the basis of outputs from four global climate models, each of which was run under two greenhouse-gas scenarios (the &ldquo;A1b&rdquo; and &ldquo;A2&rdquo; scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change&rsquo;s 4th assessment). The 4 global climate models whose data were used in this study were selected to represent a wide range of potential climate outcomes as compared to the entire range of potential climate outcomes associated with the 16 global climate models represented in the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Future land-cover and water-use data were estimated for use in the level-2 precipitation-runoff simulations to account for development-driven changes in land cover and water use. Future land-cover characteristics were estimated for selected future years based on population projections and zoning plans for communities in the basin. Future water-use data for major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were estimated from current per capita water use, population projections for 2035, and population projections for 2090 assuming full build-out. A statistical change-factor-based approach was used to estimate future water-use characteristics by major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities on the basis of reference-period historical water uses. Annual change factors that were determined for future years other than 2035 and 2090 (when the change factors could be explicitly computed) were estimated by interpolating or extrapolating linearly in time. Water uses by entities other than major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were assumed to remain unchanged because of uncertainty about if and (or) how they might change. Results from the level-1 simulations were analyzed primarily to facilitate evaluation of climate-driven temporal changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow and water-level characteristics, as well as in maximum and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflow and reservoir water levels. Results from the level-2 simulations were analyzed to help evaluate and contrast (relative to level-1 results) the effects of the added development-related factors on maximums and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels and duration characteristics of 7- and 30-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels. Results for 12 stream locations and 5 reservoirs in the Upper Scioto River Basin are presented primarily as a series of plots. Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address results in detail for each model-output location, selected results are discussed to illustrate potential uses and interpretations of the graph products provided in this report. In addition, general trends and patterns in streamflow and water-level characteristics are identified where possible.

Ohio↗

Reproducibility starts at the source: R, Python, and Julia Packages for retrieving USGS hydrologic data

Much of modern science takes place in a computational environment, and, increasingly, that environment is programmed using R, Python, or Julia. Furthermore, most scientific data now live on the cloud, so the first step in many workflows is to query a cloud database and load the response into a computational environment for further analysis. Thus, tools that facilitate programmatic data retrieval represent a critical component in reproducible scientific workflows. Earth science is no different in this regard. To fulfill that basic need, we developed R, Python, and Julia packages providing programmatic access to the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Information System database and the multi-agency Water Quality Portal. Together, these packages create a common interface for retrieving hydrologic data in the Jupyter ecosystem, which is widely used in water research, operations, and teaching. Source code, documentation, and tutorials for the packages are available on GitHub. Users can go there to learn, raise issues, or contribute improvements within a single platform, which helps foster better engagement and collaboration between data providers and their users.

Water↗

Missouri StreamStats—A water-resources web application

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maintains and operates more than 8,200 continuous streamgages nationwide. Types of data that may be collected, computed, and stored for streamgages include streamgage height (water-surface elevation), streamflow, and water quality. The streamflow data allow scientists and engineers to calculate streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood (also known as the 100-year flood), the mean flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, which are used by managers to make informed water resource management decisions, at each streamgage location. Researchers, regulators, and managers also commonly need physical characteristics (basin characteristics) that describe the unique properties of a basin. Common uses for streamflow statistics and basin characteristics include hydraulic design, water-supply management, water-use appropriations, and flood-plain mapping for establishing flood-insurance rates and land-use zones. The USGS periodically publishes reports that update the values of basin characteristics and streamflow statistics at selected gaged locations (locations with streamgages), but these studies usually only update a subset of streamgages, making data retrieval difficult. Additionally, streamflow statistics and basin characteristics are most often needed at ungaged locations (locations without streamgages) for which published streamflow statistics and basin characteristics do not exist. Missouri StreamStats is a web-based geographic information system that was created by the USGS in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources to provide users with access to an assortment of tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain the most recent published streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for streamgage locations and to automatically calculate selected basin characteristics and estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations.

Missouri↗

Water priorities for the nation—The U.S. Geological Survey next generation water observing system

The challenges of providing safe and sustainable water supplies for human and ecological uses and protecting lives and property during water emergencies are well recognized. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) plays an essential role in meeting these challenges through its observational networks and renowned water science and research activities (National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, 2018). Substantial advances in water science, together with emerging breakthroughs in technical and computational capabilities, have led the USGS to develop a Next Generation Water Observing System (NGWOS) . The NGWOS will provide real-time data on water quantity and quality in more affordable and rapid ways than previously possible, and in more locations. The data will be served through a modernized USGS National Water Information System that will be coupled to advanced modeling tools to inform daily water operations, decision-making during water emergencies (like floods, droughts, and contaminant spills), assessments of past trends in water quantity and quality, and forecasts of future water availability.

Fact Sheet↗

Stochastic uncertainty analysis for unconfined flow systems

A new stochastic approach proposed by Zhang and Lu (2004), called the Karhunen‐Loeve decomposition‐based moment equation (KLME), has been extended to solving nonlinear, unconfined flow problems in randomly heterogeneous aquifers. This approach is on the basis of an innovative combination of Karhunen‐Loeve decomposition, polynomial expansion, and perturbation methods. The random log‐transformed hydraulic conductivity field ( lnK S ) is first expanded into a series in terms of orthogonal Gaussian standard random variables with their coefficients obtained as the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the covariance function of lnK S . Next, head h is decomposed as a perturbation expansion series Σ h ( m ) , where h ( m ) represents the m th‐order head term with respect to the standard deviation of lnK S . Then h ( m ) is further expanded into a polynomial series of m products of orthogonal Gaussian standard random variables whose coefficients h i 1 , i 2 ,..., i m ( m ) are deterministic and solved sequentially from low to high expansion orders using MODFLOW‐2000. Finally, the statistics of head and flux are computed using simple algebraic operations on h i 1 , i 2 ,..., i m ( m ) . A series of numerical test results in 2‐D and 3‐D unconfined flow systems indicated that the KLME approach is effective in estimating the mean and (co)variance of both heads and fluxes and requires much less computational effort as compared to the traditional Monte Carlo simulation technique.

Water Resources Research↗