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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2008

Western Mountain Initiative: predicting ecosystem responses to climate change

Mountain ecosystems of the western United States provide irreplaceable goods and services such as water, timber, biodiversity, and recreational opportunities, but their responses to climatic changes are complex and not well understood. The Western Mountain Initiative (WMI), a collaboration between USGS and U.S. Forest Service scientists, catalyzes assessment and synthesis of the effects of disturbance and climate change across western mountain areas, focusing on national parks and surrounding national forests. The WMI takes an ecosystem approach to science, integrating research across science disciplines at scales ranging from field studies to global trends.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2021

Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders ( Somateria fischeri ), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture–mark–recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first-year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2011

Persistence and diversification of the Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis (Family Soricidae), in response to climate change

Environmental processes govern demography, species movements, community turnover and diversification and yet in many respects these dynamics are still poorly understood at high latitudes. We investigate the combined effects of climate change and geography through time for a widespread Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis . We include a comprehensive suite of closely related outgroup taxa and three independent loci to explore phylogeographic structure and historical demography. We then explore the implications of these findings for other members of boreal communities. The tundra shrew and its sister species, the Tien Shan shrew ( Sorex asper ), exhibit strong geographic population structure across Siberia and into Beringia illustrating local centres of endemism that correspond to Late Pleistocene refugia. Ecological niche predictions for both current and historical distributions indicate a model of persistence through time despite dramatic climate change. Species tree estimation under a coalescent process suggests that isolation between populations has been maintained across timeframes deeper than the periodicity of Pleistocene glacial cycling. That some species such as the tundra shrew have a history of persistence largely independent of changing climate, whereas other boreal species shifted their ranges in response to climate change, highlights the dynamic processes of community assembly at high latitudes.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2011

On the brink of change: Plant responses to climate on the Colorado Plateau

The intensification of aridity due to anthropogenic climate change in the southwestern U.S. is likely to have a large impact on the growth and survival of plant species that may already be vulnerable to water stress. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is essential to determine the long‐term dynamics of plant species associated with past climate conditions. Here we show how the plant species and functional types across a wide range of environmental conditions in Colorado Plateau national parks have changed with climate variability over the last twenty years. During this time, regional mean annual temperature increased by 0.18°C per year from 1989–1995, 0.06°C per year from 1995–2003, declined by 0.14°C from 2003–2008, and there was high interannual variability in precipitation. Non‐metric multidimensional scaling of plant species at long‐term monitoring sites indicated five distinct plant communities. In many of the communities, canopy cover of perennial plants was sensitive to mean annual temperature occurring in the previous year, whereas canopy cover of annual plants responded to cool season precipitation. In the perennial grasslands, there was an overall decline of C 3 perennial grasses, no change of C 4 perennial grasses, and an increase of shrubs with increasing temperature. In the shrublands, shrubs generally showed no change or slightly increased with increasing temperature. However, certain shrub species declined where soil and physical characteristics of a site limited water availability. In the higher elevation woodlands, Juniperus osteosperma and shrub canopy cover increased with increasing temperature, while Pinus edulis at the highest elevation sites was unresponsive to interannual temperature variability. These results from well‐protected national parks highlight the importance of temperature to plant responses in a water‐limited region and suggest that projected increases in aridity are likely to promote grass loss and shrub expansion on the Colorado Plateau.

Utah↗
USGS2025

Responding to ecological transformation in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah—Employee perspectives from pilot interviews from the Cross-Park Resist-Assist-Direct Project

Executive Summary Climate change is causing a range of changes that can affect the natural, cultural, and built resources of the Nation’s protected areas and affect opportunities to visit and recreate in these spaces. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns also affect species and habitats, leading to ecological transformation. This report describes findings from pilot research conducted in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah (hereinafter referred to as “Capitol Reef” or “the Park”) as part of a larger interagency study of how National Park Service (NPS) staff are considering management of transforming ecosystems. Semi-structured interviews were used to assess how Capitol Reef employees (n=9) understand the challenge of ecological transformation, including their perceptions of how climate change is affecting the Park’s natural and cultural resources, the multiple timeframes over which employees respond to climate change impacts, and their awareness and understanding of ecological transformation and the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework, which was developed to address ecological transformation, that is, ecosystems changing in response to changes in climate conditions (Schuurman and others, 2020, 2022). The interviews also solicited employee perceptions about constraints and enabling factors that allow Capitol Reef to effectively respond to ecological transformation. The report uses a conceptual framework that has been used by the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program (Clifford and others, 2022) to structure the reporting of the data about constraints and enabling factors, with sections describing the role of factors internal to an individual employee (culture, worldviews, and understanding of an ecological system) and contextual factors external to an individual (institutional context, social feasibility and scientific uncertainty as influenced by available scientific information). Participating Capitol Reef staff perceived the most pressing climate impacts in the Park as increasing air temperatures, aridity, and flash floods, which are impacting natural and cultural resources, public safety, and infrastructure. Staff mostly agreed on what the future landscape (approximately 50 years into the future) may look like at Capitol Reef in terms of changes in vegetation and future temperature and precipitation conditions. However, staff had more divergent views or were uncertain about how specific species will adapt to future conditions (for example, how endemic plants might shift their ranges) and are grappling with which management strategies to take at which times. Staff also had differing opinions about how much data is needed to prompt action. Interviewees agreed that leadership in the Park had made climate change a priority and created a climate-attuned culture among staff. Participating employees described the park culture at Capitol Reef as collaborative, with frequent communication and work across divisions, which, as an example, shapes responses to flash floods and other events (for example, working across divisions on search and rescue, or repairing fencing that is washed out by storms). This collaborative, climate-attuned culture may help Capitol Reef in future problem-solving as it grapples with how to respond to climate change and ecological transformation in the Park.

Utah↗
USGS1998

Nitrogen and carbon soil dynamics in response to climate change in a high-elevation ecosystem in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

We have implemented a long-term snow-fence experiment at the Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research (NWT) site in the Colorado Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., to assess the effects of climate change on alpine ecology and biogeochemical cycles. The responses of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in high-elevation mountains to changes in climate are investigated by manipulating the length and duration of snow cover with the 2.6 × 60 m snow fence, providing a proxy for climate change. Results from the first year of operation in 1994 showed that the period of continuous snow cover was increased by 90 d. The deeper and earlier snowpack behind the fence insulated soils from winter air temperatures, resulting in a 9°C increase in annual minimum temperature at the soil surface. The extended period of snow cover resulted in subnivial microbial activity playing a major role in annual C and N cycling. The amount of C mineralized under the snow as measured by CO 2 production was 22 g m -2 in 1993 and 35 g m -2 in 1994, accounting for 20% of annual net primary above-ground production before construction of the snow fence in 1993 and 31% after to snow fence was constructed in 1994. In a similar fashion, maximum subnivial N 2 O flux increased 3-fold behind the snow fence, from 75 μg N m -2 d -1 in 1993 to 250 μg N m -2 d -1 in 1994. The amount of N lost from denitrification was greater than the annual atmospheric input of N in snowfall. Surface litter decomposition studies show that there was a significant increase in the litter mass loss under deep and early snow, with no significant change under medium and little snow conditions. Changes in climate that result in differences in snow duration, depth, and extent may therefore produce large changes in the C and N soil dynamics of alpine ecosystems.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21 st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

California↗
USGS2020

Examining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?

Climate-change-driven shifts in distribution and abundance have been documented in many species. However, in order to better predict species responses, managers are seeking to understand the mechanisms that are driving these changes, including any thresholds that might soon be crossed. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and its partners, this project used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. Moreover, this project documented biological thresholds related to climate variability and change for critical species in the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. Specifically, our objectives were to identify the primary drivers (climate change vs. urban growth) of species distribution changes in the Northeast; examine the nature of species landscape capability change over time to identify potential thresholds; determine how changing temperatures and snowpack characteristics will drive species interactions; analyze the sensitivity of tree and bird responses to the magnitude, variability, periodicity, and seasonality of temperature and precipitation under climate change in the eastern U.S.; and identify how discrete climate triggers such as extreme events will correlate with known biological thresholds. Major outcomes included 1) refining the understanding of the mechanisms that drive projected changes in the distribution of vulnerable populations; and 2) improving how these results are conveyed to stakeholders by identifying understandable responses in the form of thresholds.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ke↗
USGS2026

Predicted range shifts of non‐native grasses in response to climate change are influenced by photosynthetic pathway: A case study in the Hawaiian Islands

Aim Grasses comprise three main photosynthetic pathway variants (C 3 -BOP, C 3 -PACMAD and C 4 -PACMAD hereafter referred to as C 4 ). We sought to confirm climate niche differences among these photosynthetic pathway variants and assessed whether predicted non-native grass range shift patterns with climate change differ among photosynthetic pathway variants. Location Hawaiian Islands. Methods We used a species distribution modelling (SDM) approach that uses global occurrence records to inform local SDM based on local (Hawaiian Islands) occurrences. We compared climate niches and projected climate-driven range shifts, assuming moderate climate change (RCP 4.5, end of century), among 22 non-native grasses representing C 3 -BOP, C 3 -PACMAD and C 4 photosynthetic pathway variants. Results C 4 grasses exhibited the warmest temperature niches on average, but did not differ substantially in rainfall niche versus C 3 -BOP grasses. C 3 -PACMAD species averaged high suitability across a broad range of temperatures and rainfall conditions, except extreme aridity. In response to projected climate change, C 4 grasses had projected range increases. C 3 -BOP grasses typically responded with net range decreases, while C 3 -PACMAD grasses had variable range responses. However, patterns were contingent on elevation: for instance, the projected expansion of C 4 grasses was generally limited to elevations below 2000 m, with the largest increases in areas up to ~750 m. Areas of greatest reduction for C 3 -BOP and C 3 -PACMAD were projected at 750–1900 m and 100–1100 m elevation, respectively. Above 2000 m, range increases were projected for both C 3 grass variants. Main Conclusions Our projections suggest that non-native C 4 grasses pose the greatest risk for increasing spread and impacts under RCP 4.5, while certain C 3 -PACMAD grasses may endanger valuable high-elevation habitats. Photosynthetic pathway may be a useful component of weed risk assessment to evaluate how species may respond to climate change as similar range response patterns may be expected for other non-native grasses in other tropical and subtropical regions.

Hawaii↗
USGS2007

Vegetation response to climate change in Alaska: examples from the fossil record

Preface: This report was presented as an invited paper at the Fish & Wildlife Service Climate Forum held in Anchorage, Alaska on February 21-23, 2007. The purpose of the talk was to provide some examples of past climate changes that appear to have caused significant responses in Alaskan vegetation. These examples are based on interpretations of dated fossil assemblages (pollen, spores and plant macrofossils) collected and interpreted by U.S. Geological Survey and collaborating scientists from other scientific organizations during the past several decades.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Identification of storm events and contiguous coastal sections for deterministic modeling of extreme coastal flood events in response to climate change

Deterministic dynamical modeling of future climate conditions and associated hazards, such as flooding, can be computationally-expensive if century-long time-series of waves, sea level variations, and overland flow patterns are simulated. To alleviate some of the computational costs, local impacts of individual coastal storms can be explored by first identifying particular events or scenarios of interest and dynamically modeling those events in detail. In this study, an efficient approach to selecting storm events for subsequent deterministic detailed modeling of coastal flooding is presented. The approach identifies locally relevant scenarios derived from regional datasets spanning long time-periods and covering large geographic areas. This is done by identifying storm events from global climate models using a robust, yet computationally simple approach for calculating total water level proxies at the shore, assuming a linear superposition of the important processes contributing to the overall total water level. Clustering of the total water level time-series is used to define coherent coastal cells where similar return period water level extrema occur in response to region-wide storms. Results show that the more severe but rare coastal flood events (e.g., the 100-year (yr) event) typically occur from the same storm across the region, but that a number of different storms are responsible for the less severe but more frequent local extreme water levels (e.g., the 1-yr event). This new ‘storm selection’ approach is applied to the Southern California Bight, a region of varying shoreline orientations that is subject to wave refraction across complex bathymetry, and shadowing, focusing, diffraction, and dissipation of wave energy by islands. Results indicate that wave runup dominates total water level extremes at this study site, highlighting the importance of downscaling global-scale models to nearshore waves when seeking accurate projections of local coastal hazards in response to climate change.

California↗
USGS2024

Combining past and contemporary species occurrences with ordinal species distribution modeling to investigate responses to climate change

Many organisms leave evidence of their former occurrence, such as scat, abandoned burrows, middens, ancient eDNA or fossils, which indicate areas from which a species has since disappeared. However, combining this evidence with contemporary occurrences within a single modeling framework remains challenging. Traditional binary species-distribution modeling reduces occurrence to two temporally coarse states (present/absent), so thus cannot leverage the information inherent in temporal sequences of evidence of past occurrence. In contrast, ordinal modeling can use the natural time-varying order of states (e.g. never occupied versus previously occupied versus currently occupied) to provide greater insights into range shifts. We demonstrate the power of ordinal modeling for identifying the major influences of biogeographic and climatic variables on current and past occupancy of the American pika Ochotona princeps , a climate-sensitive mammal. Sampling over five years across the species' southernmost, warm-edge range limit, we tested the effects of these variables at 570 habitat patches where occurrence was classified either as binary or ordinal. The two analyses produced different top models and predictors – ordinal modeling highlighted chronic cold as the most-important predictor of occurrence, whereas binary modeling indicated primacy of average summer-long temperatures. Colder wintertime temperatures were associated in ordinal models with higher likelihood of occurrence, which we hypothesize reflect longer retention of insulative and meltwater-provisioning snowpacks. Our binary results mirrored those of other past pika investigations employing binary analysis, wherein warmer temperatures decrease likelihood of occurrence. Because both ordinal- and binary-analysis top models included climatic and biogeographic factors, results constitute important considerations for climate-adaptation planning. Cross-time evidences of species occurrences remain underutilized for assessing responses to climate change. Compared to multi-state occupancy modeling, which presumes all states occur in the same time period, ordinal models enable use of historical evidence of species' occurrence to identify factors driving species' distributions more finely across time.

New Mexico↗
USGS2012

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2026

Final project peport for “Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to present – Phase 2: Focus on tamarisk vegetation”

Riparian ecosystems play a critical role in supporting wildlife habitats, maintaining water quality, and sustaining ecological resilience in arid landscapes. In the Upper Gila River level-4 Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-4; Identification Number – 1504) watershed of Arizona and New Mexico, and across areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe of the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter, Tribe/Tribal – entity; or Reservation - place), riparian ecosystems have been substantially altered by the widespread expansion of tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.), an invasive and non-native riparian species. Tamarisk has high water use and increased flammability, making it a growing concern as droughts intensify across the southwestern United States (U.S.). Recent research indicates that tamarisk is increasingly stressed under prolonged drought conditions, which can elevate wildfire risk and further degrade riparian habitat. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with the Tribe, developed remote sensing–based tools to map riparian vegetation composition and monitor vegetation condition over time. These tools enable accurate identification of tamarisk extent, detection of vegetation stress, and comparison with native species such as cottonwood and willow. This information directly supports restoration and management actions, including targeted tamarisk removal, protection of endangered species habitat, and prioritization of areas for native vegetation recovery. The tools also provide insight into how riparian vegetation responds to changing climate and hydrologic conditions, strengthening long-term planning for riparian forest management. Findings from this work demonstrate that riparian vegetation responses vary across river systems, indicating differences in plant composition and hydro-climatic conditions. Tamarisk on both the Gila and San Carlos Rivers generally exhibit greater declines in greenness in response to higher temperature as well as lower precipitation and river flow, while cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly sensitive to changes in discharge along the San Carlos River and respond more directly to both high and low flows, with more moderate responses to precipitation and temperature. By providing actionable, science-based information, this research supports climate adaptation planning, wildfire risk reduction, and improved riparian ecosystem health, with benefits that extend beyond the Reservation to regional water and wildlife conservation efforts.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2021

Forecasting the distribution of a range-expanding bat reveals future response to climate change and habitat

Many terrestrial vertebrate species are exhibiting geographic distribution changes including poleward range limit shifts in response to increases in regional temperature. Bats are a highly mobile taxa capable of rapid responses to changes in abiotic or biotic conditions. In North America, recent extralimital records of the non-hibernating Lasiurus seminolus (Seminole bat) have been attributed to climate change, however such attributions remain speculative and potentially subject to sampling bias in the form of increased recent sampling efforts at latitudes north of the historical range. We used historical occurrence records and simple environmental variables within a Maxent modeling framework to model the historical distribution of suitable areas for this species. We transferred the model using near current environmental conditions and measured the ability of the model to capture the apparent expansion in distribution using recent extralimital occurrence records. This measure indicated a distribution expansion, largely attributed to increasing minimum temperatures. We used the model to forecast the expansion in distribution of suitable areas at three 20-year intervals and various climate change scenarios and provide extrapolation risk maps for each scenario. Although increasing temperatures may increase potentially occupiable areas, the species is associated with forests and often roosts in Pinus spp. (pines). This suitable habitat is reduced in presence to the northwest of the species’ range, which may constrain the future species expansion despite favorable temperatures. We demonstrated this effect by mapping limiting factors through future climate change scenarios. We discovered a broad shift of effects that constrained the distribution from minimum temperature to a metric of evergreen cover type as time and climate intensity increased. Although uncertainties exist, we predict further expansion of the Seminole bat widely over the next 60 years across the eastern United States where suitable habitat and climate conditions converge. Our results appear consistent with other bat species showing similar range extensions and in turn provide further evidence that bats may serve as bioindicators of global change.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Ind↗
USGS2019

Incorporating social-ecological considerations into basin-wide responses to climate change in the Colorado River Basin

During the last 50 years, construction of dams in the western United States declined. This is partly because of increasing recognition of diverse and unintended social-ecological consequences of dams. Today, resource managers are recognizing the wide array of tradeoffs and are including a more diverse group of stakeholders in decision making for individual dams. Yet decisions at the regional scale maintain a focus on a limited number of resources and objectives, leading to inefficient and inequitable outcomes. Social-ecological changes compounded by climate change challenge this management paradigm. Increasing water demands for humans and the environment and renewed interest in hydropower present opportunities for operations that include climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies while considering tradeoffs and equitable responses at the regional scale.

Colorado River Basin↗
USGS2016

Risk and efficacy of human-enabled interspecific hybridization for climate-change adaptation: Response to Hamilton and Miller (2016)

Hamilton and Miller ( 2016 ) provide an interesting and provocative discussion of how hybridization and introgression can promote evolutionary potential in the face of climate change. They argue that hybridization—mating between individuals from genetically distinct populations—can alleviate inbreeding depression and promote adaptive introgression and evolutionary rescue. We agree that deliberate intraspecific hybridization (mating between individuals of the same species) is an underused management tool for increasing fitness in inbred populations (i.e., genetic rescue; Frankham 2015 ; Whiteley et al. 2015 ). The potential risks and benefits of assisted gene flow have been discussed in the literature, and an emerging consensus suggests that mating between populations isolated for approximately 50–100 generations can benefit fitness, often with a minor risk of outbreeding depression (Frankham et al. 2011 ; Aitken & Whitlock 2013 ; Allendorf et al. 2013 ).

Conservation Biology↗