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A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States
Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.
Physical attributes of some clouds amid a forest ecosystem's trees
Cloud or fog water collected by forest canopies of any elevation could represent significant sources of required moisture and nutrients for forest ecosystems, human consumption, and as an alternative source of water for agriculture and domestic use. The physical characteristics of fogs and other clouds have been well studied, and this information can be useful to water balance or canopy–cloud interaction model verification and to calibration or training of satellite-borne sensors to recognize atmospheric attributes, such as optical thickness, albedo, and cloud properties. These studies have taken place above-canopy or within canopy clearings and rarely amid the canopy. Simultaneous physical and chemical characteristics of clouds amid and above the trees of a mountain forest, located about 3.3 km southwest of Mt. Mitchell, NC, were collected between 13 and 22 June 1993. This paper summarizes the physical characteristics of the cloud portions amid the trees. The characteristic cloud amid the trees (including cloud and precipitation periods) contained 250 droplet/cm 3 with a mean diameter of 9.5 μm and liquid water content (LWC) of 0.11 g m −3 . The cloud droplets exhibited a bimodal distribution with modes at about 2 and 8 μm and a mean diameter near 5 μm during precipitation-free periods, whereas the concurrent above-canopy cloud droplets had a unimodal distribution with a mode near 6 μm and a mean diameter of 6 μm. The horizontal cloud water flux is nonlinearly related to the rate of collection onto that surface amid the trees, especially for the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center (ASRC) sampling device, whereas it is linear when the forward scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP) are is used. These findings suggest that statements about the effects clouds have on surfaces they encounter, which are based on above-canopy or canopy-clearing data, can be misleading, if not erroneous.
Long-term ecosystem and biogeochemical research in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado
Loch Vale watershed was instrumented in 1983 with initial support from the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to ask whether ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) were affected by acidic atmospheric deposition. Research and monitoring activities were expanded in 1991 by the U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program to understand the processes, and their interactions, controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. With help from many collaborators we have characterized trends and patterns in atmospheric deposition, climate, and hydrology, including glaciers and other ice features. Instead of acidic deposition, we documented high atmospheric inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr), and have studied the ecological consequences in soils, surface water, and vegetation. Using paleolimnology, we documented the onset of human-caused change to lake primary producers ca. 1950 in response to increased Nr deposition and warming. Our results provided the basis for the Colorado Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan, a state policy that aims to reduce Nr emissions to protect resources in RMNP by 2032. Carbon cycle research revealed mountain wetlands now release more carbon than they store, and respiration and methane flux occurs even during winter through deep snow packs. Trend analyses found export of Nr to be closely tied to atmospheric inputs, but can lag in response to drought. Current research explores consequences of the combination of warming, changes in precipitation dynamics, and atmospheric deposition of Nr and dust on stream and lake CO 2 dynamics, lake biology and trophic state, and soil carbon composition. Dramatic increases in park visitors have prompted studies on the effects of recreational use on water quality. New tools such as remote sensing and high frequency instream water quality sensors are being applied to lake and stream studies. Monitoring, combined with experiments, models, and spatial comparisons is an essential foundation for science-based resource management.
Abundant carbon substrates drive extremely high sulfate reduction rates and methane fluxes in Prairie Pothole Wetlands
Inland waters are increasingly recognized as critical sites of methane emissions to the atmosphere, but the biogeochemical reactions driving such fluxes are less well understood. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is one of the largest wetland complexes in the world, containing millions of small, shallow wetlands. The sediment pore waters of PPR wetlands contain some of the highest concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and sulfur species ever recorded in terrestrial aquatic environments. Using a suite of geochemical and microbiological analyses, we measured the impact of sedimentary carbon and sulfur transformations in these wetlands on methane fluxes to the atmosphere. This research represents the first study of coupled geochemistry and microbiology within the PPR and demonstrates how the conversion of abundant labile DOC pools into methane results in some of the highest fluxes of this greenhouse gas to the atmosphere ever reported. Abundant DOC and sulfate additionally supported some of the highest sulfate reduction rates ever measured in terrestrial aquatic environments, which we infer to account for a large fraction of carbon mineralization in this system. Methane accumulations in zones of active sulfate reduction may be due to either the transport of free methane gas from deeper locations or the co-occurrence of methanogenesis and sulfate reduction. If both respiratory processes are concurrent, any competitive inhibition of methanogenesis by sulfate-reducing bacteria may be lessened by the presence of large labile DOC pools that yield noncompetitive substrates such as methanol. Our results reveal some of the underlying mechanisms that make PPR wetlands biogeochemical hotspots, which ultimately leads to their critical, but poorly recognized role in regional greenhouse gas emissions.
Marine fog: a review
The objective of this review is to discuss physical processes over a wide range of spatial scales that govern the formation, evolution, and dissipation of marine fog. We consider marine fog as the collective combination of fog over the open sea along with coastal sea fog and coastal land fog. The review includes a history of sea fog research, field programs, forecasting methods, and detection of sea fog via satellite observations where similarity in radiative properties of fog top and the underlying sea induce further complexity. The main thrust of the study is to provide insight into causality of fog including its initiation, maintenance, and destruction. The interplay between the various physical processes behind the several stages of marine fog is among the most challenging aspects of the problem. An effort is made to identify this interplay between processes that include the microphysics of fog formation and maintenance, the influence of large-scale circulation and precipitation/clouds, radiation, turbulence (air-sea interaction), and advection. The environmental impact of marine fog is also addressed. The study concludes with an assessment of our current knowledge of the phenomenon, our principal areas of ignorance, and future lines of research that hold promise for advances in our understanding.
Effects of nitrogen deposition and empirical nitrogen critical loads for ecoregions of the United States
Human activity in the last century has led to a significant increase in nitrogen (N) emissions and atmospheric deposition. This N deposition has reached a level that has caused or is likely to cause alterations to the structure and function of many ecosystems across the United States. One approach for quantifying the deposition of pollution that would be harmful to ecosystems is the determination of critical loads. A critical load is defined as the input of a pollutant below which no detrimental ecological effects occur over the long-term according to present knowledge. The objectives of this project were to synthesize current research relating atmospheric N deposition to effects on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the United States, and to estimate associated empirical N critical loads. The receptors considered included freshwater diatoms, mycorrhizal fungi, lichens, bryophytes, herbaceous plants, shrubs, and trees. Ecosystem impacts included: (1) biogeochemical responses and (2) individual species, population, and community responses. Biogeochemical responses included increased N mineralization and nitrification (and N availability for plant and microbial uptake), increased gaseous N losses (ammonia volatilization, nitric and nitrous oxide from nitrification and denitrification), and increased N leaching. Individual species, population, and community responses included increased tissue N, physiological and nutrient imbalances, increased growth, altered root : shoot ratios, increased susceptibility to secondary stresses, altered fire regime, shifts in competitive interactions and community composition, changes in species richness and other measures of biodiversity, and increases in invasive species. The range of critical loads for nutrient N reported for U.S. ecoregions, inland surface waters, and freshwater wetlands is 1-39 kg N.ha -1.yr -1, spanning the range of N deposition observed over most of the country. The empirical critical loads for N tend to increase in the following sequence for different life forms: diatoms, lichens and bryophytes, mycorrhizal fungi, herbaceous plants and shrubs, and trees. The critical load approach is an ecosystem assessment tool with great potential to simplify complex scientific information and communicate effectively with the policy community and the public. This synthesis represents the first comprehensive assessment of empirical critical loads of N for major ecoregions across the United States. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.
Interactive coupling of a lake thermal model with a regional climate model
A one‐dimensional model of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice has been coupled in an interactive mode with the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University regional (mesoscale) atmospheric model (MM4). The coupled MM4‐lake model makes possible high‐resolution simulations of climate in the proximity of large water bodies. Atmospheric variables required as input for the lake model are supplied by MM4 and simulated values of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover axe supplied to MM4 by the lake model. We have tested the coupled model system with a 60‐day, summertime simulation at Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and with a 10‐day, wintertime simulation of the North American Great Lakes and vicinity. Both simulations were conducted at a 60‐km resolution. Results from these tests indicate the coupled model system produces realistic simulations of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover and that the coupled system is applicable to simulations of regional climate change.
VogCast: A framework for modeling volcanic air pollution and its application to the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawai'i
Volcanic activity and the associated gas emissions into the atmosphere often result in adverse air quality conditions and present a hazard to human health and the environment. Building on a decade-long effort to provide operational surface sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol forecasts for the State of Hawai'i, we present an air quality modeling framework called VogCast. VogCast is designed to simplify ensemble air quality prediction on a regional scale by linking together multiple state-of-the-art models of meteorology, emissions, and dispersion. The framework is open-source and introduces a new dynamic plume-rise algorithm for distributing pollutants vertically. Using radar and satellite data, we demonstrate that VogCast reasonably captured the mean injection height, the location, and the general envelope of the vog plume during Mauna Loa's 2022 eruption. The results suggest that during the 12-day eruption period model performance varied between days with trade and non-trade wind conditions. Our findings also highlight the importance of sulfur dioxide emission rate and vent parameter inputs for improving forecast accuracy. The broad goal of this work is to better our understanding of vog dispersion and improve air quality prediction for impacted communities.
Evaluating the effects of historical land cover change on summertime weather and climate in New Jersey: Land cover and surface energy budget changes
The 19th-century agrarian landscape of New Jersey (NJ) and the surrounding region has been extensively transformed to the present-day land cover by urbanization, reforestation, and localized areas of deforestation. This study used a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model to investigate the sensitivity of the warm season climate of NJ to these land cover changes. Reconstructed 1880s-era and present-day land cover data sets were used as surface boundary conditions for a set of simulations performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Three-member ensembles with historical and present-day land cover were compared to examine the sensitivity of surface air and dew point temperatures, rainfall, and the individual components of the surface energy budget to these land cover changes. Mean temperatures for the present-day landscape were 0.3-0.6??C warmer than for the historical landscape over a considerable portion of NJ and the surrounding region, with daily maximum temperatures at least 1.0??C warmer over some of the highly urbanized locations. Reforested regions, however, were slightly cooler. Dew point temperatures decreased by 0.3-0.6??C, suggesting drier, less humid near-surface air for the present-day landscape. Surface warming was generally associated with repartitioning of net radiation from latent to sensible heat flux, and conversely for cooling. While urbanization was accompanied by strong surface albedo decreases and increases in net shortwave radiation, reforestation and potential changes in forest composition have generally increased albedos and also enhanced landscape heterogeneity. The increased deciduousness of forests may have further reduced net downward longwave radiation. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.
Investigating the origin of continual radio frequency impulses during explosive volcanic eruptions
Volcanic lightning studies have revealed that there is a relatively long‐lasting source of very high frequency radiation associated with the onset of explosive volcanic eruptions that is distinct from radiation produced by lightning. This very high frequency signal is referred to as “continual radio frequency (CRF)” due to its long‐lasting nature. The discharge mechanism producing this signal was previously hypothesized to be caused by numerous, small (10–100 m) leader‐forming discharges near the vent of the volcano. To test this hypothesis, a multiparametric data set of electrical and volcanic activity occurring during explosive eruptions of Sakurajima Volcano in Japan was collected from May to June 2015. Our observations show that a single CRF impulse has a duration on the order of 160 ns (giving an upper limit on discharge length of 10 m) and is distinct from near‐vent lightning discharges that were on the order of 30 m in length. CRF impulses did not produce discernible electric field changes and occurred in the absence of a net static electric field. Lightning mapping data and infrared video observations of the eruption column showed that CRF impulses originated from the gas thrust region of the column. These observations indicate that CRF impulses are not produced by small, leader‐forming discharges but rather are more similar to a streamer discharge, likely on the order of a few meters in length.
Effects and empirical critical loads of Nitrogen for ecoregions of the United States
Human activity in the last century has increased nitrogen (N) deposition to a level that has caused or is likely to cause alterations to the structure and function of many ecosystems across the United States. We synthesized current research relating atmospheric N deposition to effects on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the United States, and estimated associated empirical critical loads of N for several receptors: freshwater diatoms, mycorrhizal fungi, lichens, bryophytes, herbaceous plants, shrubs, and trees. Biogeochemical responses included increased N mineralization and nitrification, increased gaseous N losses, and increased N leaching. Individual species, population, and community responses included increased tissue N, physiological and nutrient imbalances, increased growth, altered root-shoot ratios, increased susceptibility to secondary stresses, altered fire regime, shifts in competitive interactions and community composition, changes in species richness and other measures of biodiversity, and increases in invasive species. The range of critical loads of nutrient N reported for U.S. ecoregions, inland surface waters, and freshwater wetlands is 1–39 kg N ha−1 yr−1, spanning the range of N deposition observed over most of the country. The empirical critical loads of N tend to increase in the following sequence: diatoms, lichens and bryophytes, mycorrhizal fungi, herbaceous plants and shrubs, trees.
The origin and evolution of dust clouds in Central Asia
Data from a high resolution radiometer AVHRR (580–680 nm optical lengthwaves) installed on the “NOAA-11” satellite as well as TV (500–700 nm) and IR (8000–12000 nm) equipment of the Russia satellite “Meteor-2/16” were used to study the evolution of dust storms for 1–30 September 1989 in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. These data help to validate the hypothesis, that long-term dusted boundary layer (duration of the order of a day or more), but of comparatively not high optical density (4–10 km meteorological visibility range at the 20–50 km background), is formed after the northwest intrusions into a region of intensive cold fronts at the surface wind velocities of 7–15 m/s. Stability of dust clouds of vertical power to 3–3.5 km (up to an inversion level) is explained by an action of collective buoyancy factors at heating the dust particles of 2–4 μm in mean diameter by solar radiation. The more intensive intrusions stimulate a formation of simultaneously dust and water clouds. The last partially reduce the solar radiation (by the calculations of the order of 30–50%) and decrease the role of buoyancy factors. Thus, initiated is the intensive but short-term dusted boundary layer at horizontal visibility of 50–200 m.
Sky type discrimination using a ground-based sun photometer
A 2-year feasibility study was conducted at the USGS EROS Data Center, South Dakota (43.733°N, 96.6167°W) to assess whether a four-band, ground-based, sun photometer could be used to discriminate sky types. The results indicate that unique spectral signatures do exist between sunny skies (including clear and hazy skies) and cirrus, and cirrostratus, altocumulus or fair-weather cumulus, and thin stratocumulus or altostratus, and fog/fractostratus skies. There were insufficient data points to represent other cloud types at a statistically significant level.
Chemical attributes of some clouds amid a forest ecosystem's trees
Simultaneous physical and chemical characteristics of clouds amid and above the trees of a montane forest, located about 3.3 km southwest of Mt. Mitchell, NC, were collected between 13 and 22 June 1993. This paper summarizes the chemical characteristics of the cloud droplets amid the trees. The ionic composition and pH of the analyzed amid-canopy cloud water samples are generally consistent with those of previous above-canopy cloud water samples obtained at this site. Magnesium, sodium, and calcium are highly correlated to each other amid the canopy as compared to above the canopy. Above-canopy and amid-canopy cloud-only episodes, with concurrent event-averaged cloud water pH values at or below 3.1, generally contain more magnesium, sodium, and calcium in the amid-canopy cloud water samples compared to concurrent above-canopy cloud water samples. The observed chemical differences between the amid-canopy cloud and the above-canopy cloud suggest an unhealthier environment for the tree canopy when the cloud water traversing this site has a pH value at or below 3.1. The predominant ion deposition fluxes were calculated to provide preliminary data for studies designed to explicitly quantify how the chemical composition of cloud water affects tree health.
The influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Florida panhandle sea breeze
In this paper we examine the variations of the boreal summer season sea breeze circulation along the Florida panhandle coast from relatively high resolution (10 km) regional climate model integrations. The 23 year climatology (1979–2001) of the multidecadal dynamically downscaled simulations forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy (NCEP‐DOE) Reanalysis II at the lateral boundaries verify quite well with the observed climatology. The variations at diurnal and interannual time scales are also well simulated with respect to the observations. We show from composite analyses made from these downscaled simulations that sea breezes in northwestern Florida are associated with changes in the size of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on interannual time scales. In large AWP years when the North Atlantic Subtropical High becomes weaker and moves further eastward relative to the small AWP years, a large part of the southeast U.S. including Florida comes under the influence of relatively strong anomalous low‐level northerly flow and large‐scale subsidence consistent with the theory of the Sverdrup balance. This tends to suppress the diurnal convection over the Florida panhandle coast in large AWP years. This study is also an illustration of the benefit of dynamic downscaling in understanding the low‐frequency variations of the sea breeze.
Laboratory experiments of volcanic ash resuspension by wind
Fresh volcanic eruption deposits tend to be loose, bare, and readily resuspended by wind. Major resuspension events in Patagonia, Iceland, and Alaska have lofted ash clouds with potential to impact aircraft, infrastructure, and downwind communities. However, poor constraints on this resuspension process limit our ability to model this phenomenon. Here, we present laboratory experiments measuring threshold shear velocities and emission rates of resuspended ash under different environmental conditions, including relative humidity of 25–75% and simulated rainfall with subsequent drying. Eruption deposits were replicated using ash collected from two major eruptions: the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens and the 1912 eruption of Novarupta, in Alaska's Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes. Samples were conditioned in a laboratory chamber and prepared with bulk deposit densities of 1,300–1,500 kg/m 3 . A control sample of dune sand was included for comparison. The deposits were subjected to different wind speeds using a modified PI‐SWERL® instrument. Under a constant relative humidity of 50% and shear velocities 0.4–0.8 m/s, PM 10 emission by resuspension ranged from 10 to >100 mg·m −2 ·s −1 . Addition of liquid water equivalent to 5 mm of rainfall had little lasting effect on Mount St. Helens wind erosion potential, while the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes deposits exhibited lower emissions for at least 12 days. The results indicate that particle resuspension due to wind erosion from ash deposits potentially exceeds that of most desert surfaces and approaches some of the highest emissions ever measured.
Flow development and entrainment in turbulent particle-laden jets
Explosive eruptions expel volcanic gases and particles at high pressures and velocities. Within this multiphase fluid, small ash particles affect the flow dynamics, impacting mixing, entrainment, turbulence, and aggregation. To examine the role of turbulent particle behavior, we conducted an analogue experiment using a particle-laden jet. We used compressed air as the carrier fluid, considering turbulent conditions at Reynolds numbers from approximately 5,000 to 20,000. Two different particles were examined: 14-μm diameter solid nickel spheres and 13-μm diameter hollow glass spheres. These resulted in Stokes numbers between 1 and 35 based on the convective scale. The particle mass percentage in the mixture is varied from 0.3% to more than 20%. Based on a 1-D volcanic plume model, these Stokes numbers and mass loadings corresponded to millimeter-scale particle diameters at heights of 4–8 km above the vent during large, sustained eruptions. Through particle image velocimetry, we measured the mean flow behavior and the turbulence statistics in the near-exit region, primarily focusing on the dispersed phase. We show that the flow behavior is dominated by the particle inertia, with high Stokes numbers reducing the entrainment by more than 40%. When applied to volcanic plumes, these results suggest that high-density particles can greatly increase the probability of column collapse.