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USGS1999

Effects of snowmobile use on snowpack chemistry in Yellowstone National Park, 1998

Snowmobile use in Yellowstone National Park has increased substantially in the past three decades. In areas of greatest snowmobile use, elevated levels of by-products of gasoline combustion such as ammonium and benzene have been detected in snowpack samples. Annual snowpacks and snow-covered roadways trap deposition from local and regional atmospheric emissions. Snowpack samples representing most of the winter precipitation were collected at about the time of maximum annual snow accumulation at a variety of locations in the park to observe effects of a range of snowmobile traffic levels. Concentrations of organic and inorganic compounds in snow samples from pairs of sites located directly in and off snow-packed roadways used by snowmobiles were compared to concentrations in samples collected at nearby off-road sites. Concentrations of ammonium were 2 to 5 times higher for the in-road snow compared to off-road snow for each pair of sites. Thus, concentrations decreased rapidly with distance from roadways. In addition, concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, sulfate, benzene, and toluene in snow were positively correlated with snowmobile use.

Wyoming↗

USGS1992

Description and effects of 1988 drought on ground-water levels, streamflow, and reservoir levels in Indiana

Documentation of the 1988 drought in Indiana was undertaken to aid water-management agencies and planners concerned with periods of below-normal precipitation and their effect on commercial, agricultural, and residential water use. Precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Indices, and ground- and surface-water levels from water years 1988 and 1989 were compared to the historical record to evaluate severity, extent, and duration of the 1988 drought in Indiana. Three types of drought-climatological, hydrologic, and agricultural--occurred in most of Indiana during water years 1988 and 1989. The drought began toward the end of calendar year 1987 as annual precipitation decreased to 4.6 inches below the long term mean. By the end of September 1988, statewide precipitation deficits had increased to almost 8 inches below normal. High temperatures during the summer months increased the stress on crops, livestock, and people. Northwest Indiana experienced the second warmest June-August on record. Palmer Drought Severity Indices indicated that a moderate-to-severe drought had occurred in Indiana during most of 1988. Ground-water levels were affected substantially in many areas of the State. Record low-water levels were observed at 12 of the 20 monitoring wells included in this report. A go-day ground-water emergency was declared in parts of northwestern Indiana. Streamflow throughout the State was affected to varying degrees by the drought. Annual mean discharge in some rivers was only slightly less than the mean annual discharge, while others flowed at less than half that value. The effects of low streamflows were felt by many as electric power plants reduced or ceased production and public-water utilities requested conservation measures by their customers. Major reservoirs in the State approached or reached record low levels, causing water supplies as well as recreational activities to be diminished. Most major crops produced in Indiana were affected by the dry conditions. Average yields in 1988 ranged from 50 to 86 percent of 1987 yields.

Indiana↗

USGS2024

Aftershock forecasting

Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models, and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing, but don’t yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗

USGS2024

Conceptualization and simulation of groundwater flow and groundwater availability in the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers in northeastern Oklahoma, 1980–2017

Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statute § 82-1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations to determine the maximum annual yield for the State’s groundwater basins. The Boone and Roubidoux aquifers (also known as the Springfield Plateau aquifer and Ozark aquifer, respectively) are bedrock aquifers that extend from northeastern Oklahoma into Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri. At present (2024), the Oklahoma Water Resources Board has yet to legally issue orders for the final determination of maximum annual yields for the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. To support determination of a maximum annual yield, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, developed a hydrogeologic framework, a conceptual groundwater-flow model, and a calibrated numerical groundwater-flow model for the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. Three types of groundwater-availability scenarios were simulated by using the calibrated numerical model. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates (groundwater withdrawal applied equally over the aquifer), (2) quantify the potential effects of projected groundwater withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought. For the Boone aquifer, equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates were 1.10, 0.98, and 0.96 acre-feet per acre per year for the 20-, 40-, and 50-year scenarios, respectively. For the Roubidoux aquifer, equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates were 1.76, 1.34, and 1.25 acre-feet per acre per year for the 20-, 40-, and 50-year simulations, respectively. For the 50-year scenarios, stream seepage was minimally affected. Over the 10-year drought scenario, groundwater storage in the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers decreased by 660,451 acre-feet (6.7 percent) and 508,472 acre-feet (1.0 percent), respectively.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2024

Methods for quantifying interactions between groundwater and surface water

Driven by the need for integrated management of groundwater (GW) and surface water (SW), quantification of GW–SW interactions and associated contaminant transport has become increasingly important. This is due to their substantial impact on water quantity and quality. In this review, we provide an overview of the methods developed over the past several decades to investigate GW–SW interactions. These methods include geophysical, hydrometric, and tracer techniques, as well as various modeling approaches. Different methods reveal valuable information on GW–SW interactions at different scales with their respective advantages and limitations. Interpreting data from these techniques can be challenging due to factors like scale effects, heterogeneous hydrogeological conditions, sediment variability, and complex spatiotemporal connections between GW and SW. To facilitate the selection of appropriate methods for specific sites, we discuss the strengths, weaknesses, and challenges of each technique, and we offer perspectives on knowledge gaps in the current science.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources↗

USGS2024

Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply

Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and refining operations across the globe. Because many of the largest facilities are concentrated geographically near the highly seismic regions of South America, East Asia, and the Pacific, there is a potential for cascading effects on the entire supply chain. The analysis indicates that the expected annual disruption of global production is 0.3–1.1 percent for copper mines, 1.8–4.0 percent for smelters, and 1.5–3.3 percent for refineries. Expected annual disruption of global rhenium production capacity is 0.32–1.32 percent. The research highlights that the potential lost revenue from earthquake disruptions is from $315 million to $1.29 billion for copper mining, $1.92 billion to $4.33 billion for copper smelting, $2.06 billion to $4.52 billion for copper refining, and $337,000 to $1.40 million for rhenium production capacity.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Groundwater age estimates for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer based on tracer data collected during 2018–20

This study characterized groundwater age across the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA). Groundwater samples from 69 MRVA wells and 19 wells in Tertiary units of the Mississippi embayment aquifer system (MEAS) were analyzed for sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), tritium ( 3 H), helium (He), and (or) carbon-14 of dissolved inorganic carbon ( 14 C). The age distributions of 89 samples were estimated by fitting lumped parameter models to processed tracer concentrations with the U.S. Geological Survey software TracerLPM. Mean ages of MRVA groundwater samples ranged from 12 to 22,000 years, with a median of 140 years. Mean ages of MEAS groundwater samples ranged from 230 to 52,000 or more years, with a median of 13,500 years. The spatial distribution of MRVA groundwater ages was found to be influenced by depth, inflow of groundwater from deeper units, and soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. In parts of the MRVA, the spatial distribution of MRVA groundwater ages was found to be influenced by annual recharge and (or) annual groundwater pumpage.

Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, ↗

USGS2026

Streamflow, water quality, and constituent loads and yields, Scituate Reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island, water year 2023

As part of a long-term cooperative program to monitor water quality within the Scituate Reservoir drainage area, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Providence Water (formerly the Providence Water Supply Board), collected streamflow and water-quality data in tributaries to the Scituate Reservoir, Rhode Island. Streamflow and concentrations of chloride and sodium estimated from records of specific conductance for 16 tributaries were used to calculate loads of chloride and sodium during water year 2023 (October 1, 2022, through September 30, 2023). Water-quality samples were collected by Providence Water at 38 sampling stations on tributaries to the Scituate Reservoir during water year 2023. These water-quality data are summarized by using values of central tendency and are used, in combination with measured (or estimated) streamflows, to calculate loads and yields of selected water-quality constituents for water year 2023. Annual mean streamflows for monitoring stations in this study ranged from 0.47 to 34.4 cubic feet per second during water year 2023. At the 16 continuous-record streamgages, tributaries transported about 3,000 metric tons of chloride and 1,900 metric tons of sodium to the Scituate Reservoir; annual chloride yields for the tributaries ranged from 19 to 200 metric tons per square mile, and annual sodium yields ranged from 13 to 120 metric tons per square mile. At the stations where water-quality samples were collected by Providence Water, the medians of the median daily loads were 65,000 million colony forming units per day for coliform bacteria, 870 million colony forming units per day for Escherichia coli , 200 kilograms per day for chloride, 8.2 grams per day as nitrogen for nitrite, 520 grams per day as nitrogen for nitrate, and 300 grams per day as orthophosphate for phosphate. The medians of the median yields were 25,000 million colony forming units per day per square mile for coliform bacteria, 600 million colony forming units per day per square mile for Escherichia coli , 65 kilograms per day per square mile for chloride, 4.6 grams per day per square mile as nitrogen for nitrite, 180 grams per day per square mile as nitrogen for nitrate, and 180 grams per day per square mile as orthophosphate for phosphate.

Rhode Island↗

USGS1997

Analysis of minimum 7-day discharges and estimation of minimum 7-day, 2-year discharges for streamflow-gaging stations in the Brazos River basin, Texas

The minimum 7-day, 2-year discharge (7Q2) was estimated for each of 97 streamflow-gaging stations in the Brazos River Basin, Texas, with at least 10 years of unregulated or 10 years of regulated discharge data using the Pearson Type III distribution fitted by L-moment statistics of the annual minimum 7-day discharges. Forty-six stations have at least 10 years of unregulated discharge data only, 26 stations have at least 10 years of regulated discharge data only, and 25 stations have at least 10 years of unregulated and 10 years of regulated discharge data. Statistical tests were applied to the annual minimum 7-day discharges to determine if the unregulated and regulated data have trends; and to determine if the data before regulation are significantly different from the data after regulation. Results of the Mann-Kendall test indicate a significant trend at the 95-percent confidence level for 8 of the 46 unregulated-only stations, for 6 of the 26 regulated-only stations, and for 5 stations before regulation and for 10 stations after regulation of the 25 stations with both unregulated and regulated data. Results of the Wilcoxon rank-sum test indicate a significant difference between the unregulated and regulated annual minimum 7-day discharges at the 95-percent confidence level for 16 of the 25 stations with both types of data. The 7Q2 is zero for 31 of the 46 unregulated-only stations and for 9 of the 26 regulated-only stations. The 7Q2 also is zero for 9 stations before regulation and for 3 stations after regulation of the 25 stations with both unregulated and regulated data. The 7Q2 ranges from 33 to 631 cubic feet per second for the eight regulated-only stations on the mainstem Brazos River. For the seven stations on the mainstem Brazos River with at least 10 years of unregulated and 10 years of regulated discharge data, the 7Q2 ranges from 0 to 568 cubic feet per second before regulation and from 0.30 to 670 cubic feet per second after regulation. The 7Q2 increased during regulation for 19 of the 25 stations with both unregulated and regulated data. The effect of regulation for most stations generally was an increase in the magnitude of the 7Q2.

Texas↗

USGS2026

Magnetic storms and geoelectric hazards

Magnetic storms induce geoelectric fields at Earth's surface that can interfere with grounded long-line systems. The September 1859 storm disrupted global telegraph operations, the March 1989 storm caused a blackout in Canada and interfered with electric-power-transmission systems in the United States, and other storms have had related impacts. The geographic and temporal dependence of geoelectric fields are functions of both geomagnetic variation and local surface impedance, which differ considerably across different geological regions. These dependencies can be mapped across the contiguous United States by combining magnetotelluric impedance tensors with ground magnetometer time series. This review illustrates such mapping for the 1989 storm and shows that power-system interference was experienced where surface impedance is high, and when and where geoelectric fields were intense. Statistical analyses indicate that storms comparable to that of March 1989 occur roughly once every four solar cycles. Ongoing developments in numerical modeling and real-time monitoring are anticipated to enable prediction of geoelectric hazards. ▪ Magnetic storms can induced electric fields in the solid Earth that interfere with electric-power-transmission systems. ▪ Geoelectric hazards depend on the storm-time geomagnetic disturbance and the electrical conductivity structure of Earth. ▪ Historically, impacts on telecommunication and power-transmission systems in the United States have been concentrated in the East and Midwest. ▪ The future occurrence of a magnetic superstorm could cause widespread disruption of electric-power-transmission systems.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗

USGS2025

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Substrate Enhancement Pilot Project—Monitoring summary and evaluation, Kootenai River, Idaho, 2012–22

To assess changes in substrate conditions and the efficacy of artificially placed substrates at select sites on the Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kootenai Tribe of Idaho, completed repeat bathymetric, velocimetric, and underwater videography surveys. Collectively, three project sites throughout the Kootenai River make up the Substrate Enhancement Pilot Project (SEPP), an effort intended to improve spawning and egg incubation viability at locations identified to be aquatic habitat limited for the endangered Kootenai River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus). Following the placement of coarse substrates at each site, bathymetric, velocimetric, and underwater videography data were collected from 2012 to 2022 to assess the role of deposition and erosion on maintaining suitable white sturgeon spawning and incubation substrates. Minimal erosion and deposition occurred at all Substrate Enhancement Pilot Project sites, according to interannual and intra-annual net volumetric changes between bathymetric surveys. Depending on the timing of bathymetric surveys relative to the annual peak streamflow conditions, isolated locations of deposition or erosion were observed at each site and the potential for deposition or erosion was supported by measured mean depth-averaged velocities. This study concluded that variability of deposition and scour were common at each site throughout the monitoring period and may be attributed to fluctuations in streamflow. Repeat bathymetric, underwater videography, and velocity mapping surveys were used to verify the interstitial spaces and surfaces of substrates at each SEPP site remained free of fine sediments for intervals longer than a year but were susceptible to deposition between high streamflow events.

Idaho↗

USGS2025

Constraining landslide frequency across the United States to inform county-level risk reduction

Informative landslide hazard estimates are needed to support landslide mitigation strategies to reduce landslide risk across the United States. Whereas existing national-scale landslide susceptibility products assess where landslides are likely to occur, they do not address how often , which is a critical element of landslide hazard and risk assessments. In particular, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (NRI) requires landslide frequency estimates to inform expected annual loss estimates. We present county-level landslide frequency (landslides per area per year) estimates for the 50 US states. We applied Bayesian negative binomial regression to estimate both the expected (average) reported landslide frequency and full distribution of annual landslide counts for each county. We compared a suite of models that used combinations of landslide-susceptible area, probability of potentially triggering earthquakes, frequency of potentially triggering precipitation, and ecological region as predictors. We trained our models with landslide inventory data from counties with the most comprehensive records available nationwide and used zero-inflated negative binomial distributions as an incompleteness model to correct for temporal reporting gaps. We selected a preferred frequency model to inform the NRI based on information criteria and physically plausible parameter estimates. The model showed that average annual reported landslide frequencies vary by 5 orders of magnitude across US counties, ranging from 0.002 (0.00015–0.05) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska, to 29 (19–46) landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 in Lake County, California, reflecting the country's strong variations in landslide susceptibility, earthquake probability, and other factors for which ecological region serves as a proxy. Counties with estimated frequencies in the top 20 % of all counties are predominately along the West Coast of the continental United States, in mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, in locally steep or earthquake-prone regions of the Midwest and Southeast, along the Appalachians, in southern and southeastern Alaska, and on some Hawaiian islands. By examining the number of landslides predicted in 99th percentile years for each county, we identified that 26 % of US counties likely have potential for widespread landsliding with more than 10 landslides 1000 km −2 yr −1 , even when such large events have not been reported in the training data for that county. Overall, our results better represent the range of possible landslide frequencies and spatial variations than previous national-scale estimates reported in the NRI, and our approach can inform other risk-reduction and loss-mitigation efforts across the United States and globally.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2026

Water use permits as of July 2024 and reported water use near the North Unit of Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, 1980–2023

Starting in the early 2000s, increasing oil and gas development in western North Dakota created a need for additional water resources from surface-water and groundwater sources near the North Unit of Theodore Roosevelt National Park. To summarize the use of water in that area, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed a map of surface-water and groundwater resources, aquifers, and water-use diversions, and plotted water-use trends from 1980 to 2023. Reported water used from permits in the map area has more than doubled since 2020, increasing from about 750 acre-feet in 2020 to about 2,300 acre-feet in 2022 and 2,000 acre-feet in 2023. Surface water provided the primary source of reported water used for the study period with an average of about 410 acre-feet per year from 1980 through 2017 and about 1,330 acre-feet per year from 2018 through 2023. After 2011, groundwater sourced from the Little Missouri River, Tobacco Garden Creek, Fox Hills, Fort Union, and Dakota aquifers became a larger portion of total annual reported water use from permits in the map area. From 1980 through 2015, water use for irrigation averaged 86 percent of the total annual reported surface-water and groundwater use in the map area. Starting in 2011, however, industrial uses became a proportionally larger total use of water, and in 2015, became the highest reported volume of water use in the map area. From 2011 to 2023, industrial use designated for water depots increased from 50 acre-feet to about 1,370 acre-feet, accounting for about 70 percent of total reported water use in the map area in 2023.

North Dakota↗

USGS1996

Magnitude and frequency of low flows in the Suwannee River Water Management District, Florida

Low-flow frequency statistics for 20 gaging stations having at least 10 years of continuous record and 31 other stations having less than 10 years of continu ous record or a series of at least two low- flow measurements are presented for unregulated streams in the Suwannee River Water Management District in north-central Florida. Statistics for the 20 continuous-record stations included are the annual and monthly minimum consecutive-day average low- flow magnitudes for 1, 3, 7, 14, and 30 consecutive days for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, and, for some long-term stations, 50 years, based on records available through the 1994 climatic year.Only theannual statistics are given for the 31 other stations; these are for the 7- and 30-consecutive day periods only and for recurrence intervals of 2 and 10 years only. Annual low-flow frequency statistics range from zero for many small streams to 5,500 cubic feet per second for the annual 30- consecutive-day average flow with a recurrenceinterval of 2 years for the Suwannee River near Wilcox (station 02323500). Monthly low-flow frequency statistics range from zero for many small streams to 13,800 cubic feet per second for the minimum 30-consecutive-day average flow with a 2-year recurrence interval for the month of March for the same station. Generally, low-flow characteristics of streams in the Suwannee River Water Management District are controlled by climatic, topographic, and geologic fac tors. The carbonate Floridan aquifer system underlies, or is at the surface of, the entire District. The terrane's karstic nature results in many sinkholes and springs. In some places, springs may contribute greatly to low streamflow and the contributing areas of such springs may include areas outside the presumed surface drainage area of the springs. In other places, water may enter sinkholes within a drainage basin, then reappear in springs downstream from a gage. Many of the smaller streams in the District go dry or have no flow for several months in many years. In addition to the low-flow statistics, four synoptic low-flow measurement surveys were conducted on 161 sites during 1990, 1995, and 1996. The measurements were made to provide "snapshots" of flow conditions of streams throughout the Suwannee River Water Management District. Magnitudes of low flows during the 1990 series of measurements were in the range associated with minimum 7-consecutive-day 50-year recurrence interval to the minimum 7-consecutive-day 20-year recurrence interval, except in Taylor and Dixie Counties, where the magnitudes ranged from the minimum 7-consecutive-day 5-year flow level to the7-consecutive-day 2-year flow level. The magnitudes were all greater than the minimum 7- consecutive-day 2-year flow level during 1995 and 1996. Observations of no flow were recorded at many of the sites for all four series of measurements.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Federal lands greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in the United States: Estimates for 2005–22

In 2016, the Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produce a publicly available and annually updated database of estimated greenhouse gas emissions associated with the extraction and use of fossil fuels from Federal lands. The first report in this series included emissions estimates from 2005 to 2014 and were reported for 29 States and two offshore areas. Native American and Tribal lands were not included in that analysis. This report recalculates those previous years (2005–14) with updated data and methods and extends the estimates to 2022. Nationwide emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands in 2022 were 1,081.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 Eq.) for CO 2 , 33.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. for methane (CH 4 ), and 4.3 MMT CO 2 Eq. for nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Compared to 2005, the 2022 totals represent decreases in emissions for all three greenhouse gases (by 17 percent for CO 2 , 37 percent for CH 4 , and 30 percent for N 2 O). Emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands represent, on average, 21.8 percent of U.S. emissions for CO 2 , 6.1 percent for CH 4 , and 1.3 percent for N 2 O over the 18 years included in this estimate. The trends and relative magnitudes of the greenhouse gas emissions estimated are roughly parallel to the Federal lands fossil fuel production volumes. In 2021, Federal lands of the conterminous United States stored 70,424 MMT CO 2 Eq. in terrestrial ecosystems. Soils stored most of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon (66 percent), followed by live vegetation (25 percent), deadwood (5 percent), and litter (4 percent). Carbon sequestration on Federal lands was highly variable over time, owing primarily to interannual variability in climate and weather, and variability in land use and land cover (LULC) change and disturbances, among these are wildfires and logging. Between 2005 and 2021, Federal lands sequestered an average of 83 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr. By subtracting the cumulative effects of LULC and disturbance-related CO 2 losses to the atmosphere from the total, we estimate that ecosystems at the national level sequestered CO 2 at an annual mean rate of 17 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr in a term called the net ecosystem exchange (NEE). This annual NEE sequestration value represents about 1.4 percent of average fossil fuel emissions over the same period. The USGS estimates presented in this report represent an accounting for the emissions resulting from fossil fuel extraction on Federal lands and the end-use combustion of those fuels, as well as for the sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems on Federal lands. A combined net CO 2 emissions estimate, which is the difference between the emitted and sequestered CO 2 from both the fossil fuel and ecosystems estimates, provides context for evaluating the greenhouse gas contributions of activities on these lands. The estimates included in this report can provide context for future energy decisions, as well as a basis to track change in the future.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Long Island, New York regional aquifer system for pumping and recharge conditions from 1900 to 2019

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a transient, groundwater-flow model that simulates hydrologic conditions in the Long Island aquifer system as part of an ongoing (since 2016) multiyear, cooperative investigation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The goals of this investigation are to assist stakeholders and resource managers to evaluate the response of the hydrologic system to changes in future hydraulic stresses. Responses in the hydrologic system include changes in water levels in the hydrogeologic units; discharge to streams, coastal waters, and subsurface infrastructure; and the extent of saline groundwater in the aquifers. Hydraulic stresses include future water-supply management and changes in land use and infrastructure. The numerical model synthesizes a diverse set of physiographic, geologic, climatic, land-use, and historical population, water use, and infrastructure data to physically represent the Long Island aquifer system from land surface to bedrock and to simulate annual hydrologic conditions between 1900 and 2019. A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing and recently collected borehole geologic and geophysical data collected as part of a companion drilling program. Water-transmitting properties of the principal aquifer sediments were defined in three dimensions from new and existing lithologic logs. The distribution of recharge from precipitation was estimated from landscape characteristics and climate data. Anthropogenic recharge from wastewater, leaky infrastructure, and storm runoff were estimated from population, infrastructure, and pumping data. Water-use data, including well locations, depths, and pumping rates, were obtained from historical sources and records and used to estimate pumping stresses continuously in time and space, at an annual average time scale. The data were incorporated into a three-dimensional numerical model using the U.S. Geological Survey finite difference modeling code MODFLOW 6; the model encompassed all of Long Island and surrounding surface waters and simulated historical hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibration process involved trial and error adjustments using prior knowledge to improve general fit to observations followed by an inverse calibration to update and optimize input parameters, using an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm implemented in PEST++ version 5.0. This resulted in a model that generally was in good agreement with observed, dynamically varying hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to develop two base-case models for scenario testing of future, hypothetical conditions where one represented average-annual conditions, and one represented average-seasonal conditions from 2010 to 2019. The model representing average-annual conditions was modified further to represent an alternate sea-level position of 6 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, and the model representing average-seasonal conditions was modified to represent the average seasonal effects of a 5-year drought imposed upon current hydrologic conditions. Recharge is the sole source of water to the aquifer system; groundwater discharges to coastal water and streams and is withdrawn by pumped wells. Model-estimated annual recharge ranged from about 11 inches in 1965 to 41 inches in 1983. On average, from 2010 to 2019, about 23 percent of water was pumped from wells, and about 47 and 27 percent discharged to coastal waters and streams, respectively; the remaining 4 percent was water that moved into storage in the aquifer matrix. Water levels on Long Island vary naturally during time in response to changes in recharge; the amount of variation is largest in the interior of the island, in areas with highest water table altitudes near groundwater divides and lowest near streams and the coastal waters. The total range of water table altitudes on Long Island between 1900 and 2019 ranged from near 0 to more than 70 feet in western parts of Long Island. The largest range in altitudes is in New York City and is associated with areas of large historical withdrawals between the 1920s and the late 1980s. Water table altitudes generally varied by less than 10 feet in eastern Suffolk County, where the aquifer is under more natural conditions. Saltwater intrusion is of great concern on Long Island, particularly in western Long Island where both the unconfined and confined parts of the aquifer system have been intruded in response to large-scale groundwater withdrawals; however, the volume of freshwater in the islandwide aquifer system only has changed by about 5 percent between 1900 and 2019. The decadal change in the freshwater volume was largest during the early and mid-20th century, corresponding to the largest historical pumping, but that volume change did not exceed 1 percent. The negligible change in freshwater volume suggests that saltwater intrusion as of 2019 was limited at an islandwide scale but continues to occur in local areas of Queens and Nassau Counties, adversely affecting current water supplies and limiting future water supplies for affected communities. The regional groundwater model developed for this investigation is a tool that can be used to help determine the viability of current and future water supplies at a regional scale and can be used to support development of additional models at finer scale to support more focused assessments of groundwater sustainability.

New York↗

USGS2024

Effects of drought and cloud-water interception on groundwater recharge and wildfire hazard for recent and future climate conditions, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi

The Water-budget Accounting for Tropical Regions Model (WATRMod) code was used for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for a set of water-budget scenarios. The scenarios included historical and future drought conditions, and a land-cover condition where shrubland and forest within the cloud zone were converted to grassland. For the historical drought condition, island-wide mean annual recharge estimates range from a decrease of 30 percent (239 million gallons per day [Mgal/d]) for Kauaʻi to a decrease of 39 percent (2,706 Mgal/d) for the Island of Hawaiʻi, relative to the reference condition consisting of 1978–2007 rainfall and 2020 land cover. For the future drought condition, estimates of island-wide mean annual recharge range from a decrease of 40 percent (477 Mgal/d) on Maui to a decrease of 51 percent (116 Mgal/day) on Molokaʻi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition produces estimated land-cover-related decreases in island-wide mean annual recharge (in addition to the drought-related decreases) of 11–12 Mgal/d on Oʻahu, 119–135 Mgal/day on Maui, and 689–849 Mgal/d on the Island of Hawaiʻi. The spatial distributions of increases in conditions indicative of moisture stress and potential wildfire hazard were quantified using the relative frequency of soil moisture less than a selected threshold value (monthly mean soil moisture less than 0.074, expressed as a fraction of available water capacity), evapotranspiration less than a selected threshold value (monthly evapotranspiration less than 0.96 inches), and climatic water deficit greater than a selected threshold value (monthly climatic water deficit greater than 0.77, expressed as fraction of potential evapotranspiration). For the historical drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency for the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of east and southwest Kauaʻi; central, east, and west Oʻahu; central Molokaʻi; central Maui and low- to mid-altitude parts of West Maui volcano; and the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi. For the future drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency of the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of west Kauaʻi; central and west Oʻahu and Molokaʻi; a band of mid-altitude area on the southern slope of West Maui volcano and across the southwestern slope of Haleakalā; and mid-altitude areas of the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition results in land-cover-related increases in the relative frequency of moisture-stress indicators around Kaʻala in the Waiʻanae Range and the southeastern part of the Koʻolau Range on Oʻahu, the southern part of West Maui volcano and the southwestern slope of Haleakalā on Maui, and the upland regions of the western and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi.

Hawaii↗