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USGS2025

USGS—An Unparalleled Scientific Asset

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers information critical to powering our economy, managing our natural resources, and keeping Americans safe and healthy. 1 Mapping the Nation $21B Geologic maps save users an estimated 15% in annual costs: a value of between $14B and $21B. $25.6B in annual value to users of imagery from Landsat satellites, which were codeveloped by NASA and the USGS and operated through their lifespans by the USGS. $13.5B in annual benefits is generated by the USGS's 3D Elevation Program. Securing America’s Energy Independence 44% USGS-identified undiscovered geothermal energy is equal to 44% of current U.S. electricity generation. 29.4B barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas in recoverable resources are available on U.S. public lands based on USGS assessments. Protecting Americans’ Health and Safety $424B in recent wildland fire damages highlight the need for USGS fire science, which supports efforts to protect communities and reduce risk. USGS earthquake, volcano, landslide, and coastal hazard monitoring and information save lives and minimize costs; for example, $2.8M can be saved because of USGS enhanced information about a Mauna Loa eruption. $4.5B is the estimated cost of annual flooding. Through a network of over 11,885 streamgages, the USGS supports public safety and enables forecasts, early warning systems, and management actions that protect lives and property. Supporting National Security $3.1B The USGS identified a $3.1B risk to the American economy if China restricts gallium imports. This is one example underscoring the importance of the USGS mapping critical minerals, investigating supply chains, and producing the Nation’s critical minerals list. Enhancing Our Lands and Waters $21B in estimated annual costs results from invasive species. The USGS’s invasive species research informs approaches used to reduce their effects on agriculture, water infrastructure, disease transmission, fisheries, and outdoor recreation. USGS innovations support early warnings for harmful algal blooms—over $2M in yearly benefits are provided to Kansas alone. $45B USGS science informs the management of big game (such as deer and elk). The big-game hunting industry contributes $45B to the U.S. economy. Fostering American Prosperity $4.1T Mineral commodities are necessary for the $4.1T in value added to the GDP by major industries that consume processed mineral materials and employ 1 million workers. Because of this, USGS data on mineral supply, demand, and trade are highly valued. 45,000 metric tons Rare earths power the growing technology economy, including cell phones, electric vehicles, and medical devices. For over 70 years, USGS work has supported the discovery of rare earth resources in California’s Mountain Pass area, which produced 45,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrates in 2024—over 11% of the global supply. Guarding American Food Security $70.2B USGS science informs early warning systems and management strategies to mitigate disease outbreaks in agriculture—critical research on highly pathogenic avian influenza, for example, helps safeguard the $70B value in poultry and egg production. $11.8B USGS groundwater tools are vital for agriculture; for example, in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 65% of farming relies on groundwater to support its $11.8B annual industry. 1 Values throughout are given in billions (B), millions (M), and trillions (T) of U.S. dollars. GDP is “Gross Domestic Product.” Percentages are shown as %.

General Information Product↗
USGS1991

Reconnaissance of the occurrence of agricultural chemicals in ground water in Haywood, Lake, Obion and Shelby Counties, Tennessee

Data on the occurrence of agricultural chemicals in ground wafer in Tennessee are sparse. The surficial alluvial aquifer is an important source of domestic water supply in West Tennessee, and potentially is subject fo contamination from the application of agricultural chemicals in the area. Nineteen shallow wells completed in the alluvial aquifers in areas of high density agricultural use were sampled in the winter and again in the summer of 1988 to ascertain the occurrence of agricultural chemical in ground water. Although no triazine herbicides or organophosphorus insecticides were detected in any of the wells sampled, elevated nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen) concentrations were detected. Results from the winter sampling period indicate a range of nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen) concentrations of less than 0.1 to 7.8 milligrams per liter with a median concentration of 2.6 milligrams per liter. Results from the summer sampling period indicate a range of nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen) concentrations of less than 0.1 to 8.9 milligrams per liter, median, 2.5 milligrams per liter. The highest concentrations occurred in the shallowest wells, and, in one instance, in a shallow well near a heavily irrigated field.

Tennessee↗
USGS2026

Assessing natural recharge in Indian Wells Valley, California: A Basin Characterization Model case study

The communities in Indian Wells Valley (IWV), in the northern Mojave Desert in California, rely on groundwater for domestic and agricultural use. Mountain front recharge from the surrounding Sierra Nevada is the main source of natural recharge to the valley. Increased urbanization, agricultural development, and groundwater pumping during recent decades put IWV in a state of critical overdraft. The U.S. Geological Survey Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8) was used to evaluate historical and future climate and hydrologic conditions in IWV. The BCMv8 estimated natural recharge in IWV at 10.7 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) per year for the period from 1981 to 2010. Future patterns of water balance variables using three future climate scenarios, hot-wet, hot-dry, and warm-moderately wet, were calculated for mid-century (2040–69) and end-of-century (2070–99) periods. Results for both wet models projected an increase in recharge in both periods, whereas the hot-dry model projected a decrease in recharge in both periods. All models reported a large increase in seasonal variability in recharge, indicating more future availability and frequent occurrences of drought years. All climate scenarios projected an increase in climatic water deficit in both periods. These increases in irrigation demand and variability of water supply highlight the importance of strategic management planning for the sustainability of water resources in IWV.

California↗
USGS2000

Shoals and valley plugs in the Hatchie River watershed

Agricultural land use and gully erosion have historically contributed more sediment to the streams of the Hatchie River watershed than those streams can carry. In 1970, the main sedimentation problem in the watershed occurred in the tributary flood plains. This problem motivated channelization projects (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1970). By the mid-1980's, concern had shifted to sedimentation in the Hatchie River itself where channelized tributaries were understood to contribute much of the sediment. The Soil Conservation Service [Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) since 1996] estimated that 640,000 tons of bedload (sand) accumulates in the Hatchie River each year and identified roughly the eastern two-thirds of the watershed, where loess is thin or absent, as the main source of sand (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1986a). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the West Tennessee River Basin Authority (WTRBA), conducted a study of sediment accumulation in the Hatchie River and its tributaries. This report identifies the types of tributaries and evaluates sediment, shoal formation, and valley-plug problems. The results presented here may contribute to a better understanding of similar problems in West Tennessee and the rest of the southeastern coastal plain. This information also will help the WTRBA manage sedimentation and erosion problems in the Hatchie River watershed. The source of the Mississippi section of the Hatchie River is in the sand hills southwest of Corinth, Mississippi (fig. 1). This section of the Hatchie River flows northward in an artificial drainage canal, gathering water from tributary streams that also are channelized. The drainage canal ends 2 miles south of the Tennessee State line. The Tennessee section of the Hatchie River winds north and west in a meandering natural channel to the Mississippi River. Although most of the Hatchie River tributaries are also drainage canals, the river's main stem has kept most of its natural character. The Hatchie River flows through a wide valley bottom occupied mostly by riverine wetland. Historically, the valley bottom has supported hardwood forests. Since publication of the first Hatchie River report (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1970), the channel of the river has become shallower, and flooding has increased (U.S. Department of Agriculture 1986b). These wetter conditions inhibit growth of hardwoods and lead to premature hardwood mortality. The NRCS has predicted that despite efforts to control erosion in the uplands, most of the valley-bottom forest will die. '...swamping may be so prevalent as to change most of the Hatchie River Basin flood plain into a marsh condition, with the only remnants of the present bottomland hardwood timber remaining. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1986b). Loss of channel depth has been concentrated in short reaches near tributary mouths. At the mouths of Richland, Porters, Clover, and Muddy Creeks, navigation has become difficult for recreational users (Johnny Carlin, West Tennessee River Basin Authority, oral commun., 1998). As the low-gradient alluvial system of the Hatchie River accumulates sediment, another common outcome has been the formation of valley plugs, areas where 'channels are filled with sediment, and all the additional bedload brought downstream is then spread out over the flood plain until a new channel has been formed' (Happ, 1975). Valley plugs typically form where the slope of a sand-laden tributary decreases downstream, or where the tributary joins its parent stream (Happ and others, 1940; Diehl, 1994, 1997; Smith and Diehl, 2000).

Mississippi, Tennessee↗
USGS2025

Land application of drill waste: A scope analysis

Drilling fluid waste land application, a process where drilling wastes are spread and tilled into the land surface, has become common in some petroleum-producing states, however, the potential benefits and risks of this practice are not well studied. Drilling fluids can be water- or oil-based and can have high concentrations of total soluble salts and total petroleum hydrocarbons. Comprehensive chemical characterization of these fluids is not well documented in the literature, and the extent of land application is largely unknown. We hypothesized that the land application of drill waste would fluctuate over time due to economic factors. To begin to understand the extent of historical and potential future land application, we analyzed data from over 5,800 drilling fluid land application permits collected by the Oklahoma Corporation Commission for years 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015–2020. During the years studied, drilling fluid wastes were applied to more than 250,000 acres in Oklahoma, with over 54,000 thousand barrels (Mbbl) of liquids and nearly 21,000 Mbbl of solids applied. Land application is widespread (occurring in 59/77 counties), however recent drilling activity, land availability, and the economics of transportation have created conditions favorable for land application specifically in the Anadarko Basin. Land application can co-occur with sensitive areas, such as important groundwater and surface-water drinking sources and agricultural fields used for subsistence or feed crop production. Our approach for quantifying the extent of land application, along with further chemical characterization studies, can aid operators and land managers who are considering this practice in assessing the associated benefits and risks.

Oklahoma↗
USGS1996

Pesticides in surface water from three agricultural basins in south-central Georgia, 1993-97

Twenty-two of 43 pesticides analyzed were detected in 128 water samples collected from the Tucsawhatchee Creek, the Little River, and the Withlacoochee River. These streams drain agricultural basins in south-central Georgia and were sampled from March 1993 through June 1995. Herbicides were detected more frequently than insecticides. The most frequently detected herbicides were atrazine and metolachlor and the most frequently detected insecticide was carbaryl. Pesticide concentrations in the three streams were low and did not exceed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water standards. The maximum pesticide concentration was 2.6 mg/L (micrograms per liter) for propargite, a miticide detected in only one sample. The maximum concentrations of the remaining 21 pesticides were less than 0.25 mg/L. The median concentrations were equal to the method detection limit for all pesticides except atrazine (0.008 mg/L) and metolachlor (0.012 mg/L). The ratio of herbicide detections to nondetections was largest in the planting season, smaller in the harvest season and smallest in the fallow season for the three basins. The same pattern existed for the insecticide ratios in the Little River and the Withlacoochee River. Pairwise correlations between concentrations of atrazine and metolachlor, and four parameters (discharge, and concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, suspended organic carbon, and suspended sediment) were evaluated for each stream. The strongest correlations existed between metolachlor and mean daily discharge, and metolachlor and sediment in the Withlacoochee River. The only significant correlation for the Little River was between atrazine and suspended sediment.

Georgia↗
USGS2025

Irrigated agriculture influences selenium levels in an endangered marsh bird

Selenium bioaccumulation in aquatic food webs poses risks to wildlife, particularly in wetlands receiving irrigation runoff. The Salton Sea, California’s largest lake, is primarily sustained by agricultural drainage. This drainage creates wetland habitat along the lakeshore that many bird species depend on, including the federally endangered Yuma Ridgway’s rail ( Rallus obsoletus yumanensis ). However, these marshes may pose an ecological trap – attracting rails despite high selenium exposure. We captured rails during the 2020–2023 breeding seasons and compared rail selenium levels within three types of marshes (fed with irrigation runoff, Colorado River water, or groundwater). We collected blood, breast feathers, and head feathers of rails in all three water sources for selenium comparisons. We tagged adult rails with GPS transmitters to locate nests and foraging locations where we collected eggshells, unhatched eggs, and prey. We assessed selenium exposure by collecting multiple prey species commonly eaten by rails in all three water sources. Selenium concentrations varied among sampling locations. Selenium concentrations in most sample types were predominately influenced by water source and marsh inflow velocity (sometimes in combination with marsh size). Distance to inflow, however, did not influence selenium concentrations in any sample type. Selenium concentrations were highest in agricultural-fed marshes compared to river-fed and spring-fed marshes. Increased marsh inflow velocities resulted in lower selenium concentrations. Given the risk of an ecological trap, our results suggest that supplementing wetlands with Colorado River water could mitigate selenium bioaccumulation in Yuma Ridgway’s rails.

California↗
USGS2026

Navigating uncertainty and competing objectives: Spring chinook salmon recovery in the upper Willamette river

Globally, anadromous fish populations are threatened with extinction due to multiple factors, including river impoundments that block migration, widespread alteration of physical habitat, temperature, and flow regimes, commercial and recreational harvest, changes in biological communities, and long-term climate trends. In this synthesis, we describe how physical and biological factors, policy and law, and public resource allocation affect management of spring-run Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Upper Willamette River (UWR), Oregon, USA. Efforts to restore salmon populations often involve trade-offs, for example, water management decisions must account for flood control, agricultural and municipal water use, and management of other species. UWR Chinook Salmon recovery efforts are also governed by multiple laws, policies, and action agencies that in some cases have incongruent objectives. Competing and conflicting objectives, combined with uncertainty regarding the outcomes of proposed management actions, create significant challenges for decision makers. Resource limitations, regulatory constraints, and incongruent objectives have created challenges for managers in the UWR, but opportunities exist for improved adaptive management and collaboration, which could build trust and engagement among stakeholders and ultimately support the successful implementation of decision tools. A suite of decision support tools that have been used in the Willamette River basin and elsewhere across the range of Pacific salmon have the potential to enhance decision processes. These tools can be effective when decision makers and stakeholders commit to long-term, collaborative utilization of the tools for decision making, and when available resources and regulatory environments are conducive to implementation and adaptive refinement of both the decision-support tools and management plans. The general biological and institutional principles discussed for UWR Chinook Salmon in this work apply more generally to populations of anadromous fishes across their range, especially to populations in highly regulated river systems.

Oregon↗
USGS1992

Description and effects of 1988 drought on ground-water levels, streamflow, and reservoir levels in Indiana

Documentation of the 1988 drought in Indiana was undertaken to aid water-management agencies and planners concerned with periods of below-normal precipitation and their effect on commercial, agricultural, and residential water use. Precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Indices, and ground- and surface-water levels from water years 1988 and 1989 were compared to the historical record to evaluate severity, extent, and duration of the 1988 drought in Indiana. Three types of drought-climatological, hydrologic, and agricultural--occurred in most of Indiana during water years 1988 and 1989. The drought began toward the end of calendar year 1987 as annual precipitation decreased to 4.6 inches below the long term mean. By the end of September 1988, statewide precipitation deficits had increased to almost 8 inches below normal. High temperatures during the summer months increased the stress on crops, livestock, and people. Northwest Indiana experienced the second warmest June-August on record. Palmer Drought Severity Indices indicated that a moderate-to-severe drought had occurred in Indiana during most of 1988. Ground-water levels were affected substantially in many areas of the State. Record low-water levels were observed at 12 of the 20 monitoring wells included in this report. A go-day ground-water emergency was declared in parts of northwestern Indiana. Streamflow throughout the State was affected to varying degrees by the drought. Annual mean discharge in some rivers was only slightly less than the mean annual discharge, while others flowed at less than half that value. The effects of low streamflows were felt by many as electric power plants reduced or ceased production and public-water utilities requested conservation measures by their customers. Major reservoirs in the State approached or reached record low levels, causing water supplies as well as recreational activities to be diminished. Most major crops produced in Indiana were affected by the dry conditions. Average yields in 1988 ranged from 50 to 86 percent of 1987 yields.

Indiana↗
USGS2024

Agricultural return flow dynamics on a reach of the East River, Colorado, as assessed by mass balance

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, studied historical streamflow in a reach of the East River, Colorado, to gain a preliminary understanding of return flow dynamics. Return flow is agricultural irrigation water that is not consumed by evapotranspiration and instead reaches streams by surface and subsurface flow paths. The study reach had a contributing area of 50 square miles and contained 5.23 square miles of pastures irrigated with water diverted from the East River and its tributaries. By comparing upstream inflows to downstream outflows, the net water balance of the study reach from 1994 to 2023 was assessed. Two general hydrologic conditions for the study reach were identified. One hydrologic condition was characterized by a net loss or consumption of water, termed here as general deficit. This general deficit condition extended about 16 years, from 1997 to 2012. During general deficit years, there was usually a notable net loss of streamflow from April through July, and a small net gain, possibly related to return flows, occurred in August about 75 days after the minimums for losses. The second hydrologic condition was characterized by a net gain of water, termed here as general surplus. This second condition extended about 10 years, from 2014 to 2023. During general surplus years, two separate transitions from net loss to net gain commonly occurred during June through August. Losses during general surplus years were smaller than losses during general deficit years, the respective gains were larger, and times between losses and gains were about 18 and 22 days. Differences between the two hydrologic conditions could reflect interactions among irrigation water, available capacity to store additional shallow groundwater, and streamflow. However, deciphering the causes for the shifts between the two general hydrologic conditions was beyond the scope of this report.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

How do hydrological variability and human activities control the spatiotemporal changes of riverine nitrogen export in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

Excessive nitrogen export from agricultural watersheds remains a critical water quality challenge, with the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) significantly contributing to downstream eutrophication and hypoxia in the Gulf. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of riverine nitrate plus nitrite (NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N) export across the UMRB at high spatial resolution (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes or HUC12 subwatershed scale) during 2001–2020 and quantifies the effects of anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability on riverine NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N export changes in the region between 2001–2005 and 2016–2020. Our results revealed hotspots of substantial increases in NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N yields across the UMRB, with distinct regional patterns in driving factors. Over the entire UMRB, NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N yields increased by 9.7 kg/ha/yr on average from 2001–2005 to 2016–2020, with anthropogenic activities contributing 4.8 kg/ha/yr and hydrological variability contributing 4.9 kg/ha/yr. The northern and western UMRB had combined influences from both anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability, while the east-central regions had predominantly hydrologically driven changes. Agricultural sources, including fertilizer, manure, and biological nitrogen fixation, collectively contributed over 80% of NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N loading throughout the basin. This framework for disentangling human and hydrological impacts provides critical insights for developing effective and targeted watershed management strategies to reduce nutrient losses and improve water quality.

Upper Mississippi River Basin↗
USGS2025

An inset groundwater-flow model to evaluate the effects of layering configuration on model calibration and assess managed aquifer recharge near Shellmound, Mississippi

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a high-resolution inset groundwater-flow model in the Mississippi Delta as part of an interdisciplinary collaboration coordinated by the Mississippi Alluvial Plain project to provide a tool that stakeholders can use to support water-resource management decisions. Groundwater withdrawals from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer have been vital to support agricultural production in the region, but substantial groundwater-level declines near Shellmound, Mississippi, have caused concerns for long-term sustainability of the aquifer. To better understand the subsurface and try to mitigate the long-term groundwater-level declines, stakeholders have undertaken actions including a Groundwater Transfer and Injection Pilot (GTIP) project using a riverbank filtration-based managed aquifer recharge approach. The pilot project consisted of extracting groundwater near the Tallahatchie River and reinjecting it into the aquifer 3 kilometers west where water levels have substantially declined. A high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey was also completed to collect electrical resistivity data to support the GTIP project and the development of the groundwater model. The inset groundwater-flow model was developed to (1) integrate the AEM data into the optimal layering configuration of the MRVA aquifer that the available observation data can support through calibration, and (2) assess the potential effect of the GTIP project on the groundwater levels. The AEM data were processed into three different layering configurations leading to the development of model A (18 layers), model B (16 layers), and model C (8 layers), all at a 100- x 100-meter cell spatial resolution using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model 6 code with Newton-Raphson formulation. The model development process integrated recent advances in modeling, such as the incorporation of AEM data, the use of outputs from the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, and the Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model, and was facilitated by robust automation using the open-source python packages Modflow-setup and SFRmaker. Using Parameter Estimation ++ Iterative Ensemble Smoother, the three numerical groundwater-flow models (models A, B, and C) were calibrated against a set of observations, which included aquifer groundwater levels, streamflows, stream stage, and aquifer transmissivity. Results indicate that the detailed representation of MRVA aquifer layers in model A produced the best calibrated model by history matching, and the integration of data representing surficial connectivity played a key role in improving groundwater recharge and enhancing the ability of the model to match groundwater levels in the cone of depression. A forecast model simulated the managed aquifer recharge approach, and the results indicated that, given average irrigation and recharge conditions (2010–15), the GTIP project has the potential to induce groundwater-level increases of as much as 3 meters around the injection site, but a sustained increase would require repetition in subsequent years of water transfer at 2022 rates or above.

Mississippi↗
USGS2024

Vulnerability assessment of groundwater influenced ecosystems in the Northeastern United States

Groundwater-influenced ecosystems (GIEs) are increasingly vulnerable due to groundwater extraction, land-use practices, and climate change. These ecosystems receive groundwater inflow as a portion of their baseflow or water budget, which can maintain water levels, water temperature, and chemistry necessary to sustain the biodiversity that they support. In some systems (e.g., springs, seeps, fens), this connection with groundwater is central to the system’s integrity and persistence. Groundwater management decisions for human use often do not consider the ecological effects of those actions on GIEs. This disparity can be attributed, in part, to a lack of information regarding the physical relationships these systems have with the surrounding landscape and climate, which may influence the environmental conditions and associated biodiversity. We estimate the vulnerability of areas predicted to be highly suitable for the presence of GIEs based on watershed (U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Unit Code 12 watersheds: 24–100 km 2 ) and pixel (30 m × 30 m pixels) resolution in the Atlantic Highlands and Mixed Wood Plains EPA Level II Ecoregions in the northeastern United States. We represent vulnerability with variables describing adaptive capacity (topographic wetness index, hydric soil, physiographic diversity), exposure (climatic niche), and sensitivity (aquatic barriers, proportion urbanized or agriculture). Vulnerability scores indicate that ~26% of GIEs were within 30 m of areas with moderate vulnerability. Within these GIEs, climate exposure is an important contributor to vulnerability of 40% of the areas, followed by land use (19%, agriculture or urbanized). There are few areas predicted to be suitable for GIEs that are also predicted to be highly vulnerable, and of those, climate exposure is the most important contributor to their vulnerability. Persistence of GIEs in the northeastern United States may be challenged as changes in the amount and timing of precipitation and increasing air temperatures attributed to climate change affect the groundwater that sustains these systems.

Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine↗
USGS2024

Complex hydrology and variability of nitrogen sources in a karst watershed

Streams draining karst areas with rapid groundwater transit times may respond relatively quickly to nitrogen reduction strategies, but the complex hydrologic network of interconnected sinkholes and springs is challenging for determining the placement and effectiveness of management practices. This study aims to inform nitrogen reduction strategies in a representative agricultural karst setting of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (Fishing Creek watershed, Pennsylvania) with known elevated nitrate contamination and a previous documented groundwater residence time of less than a decade. During baseflow conditions, streamflow did not increase with drainage area. Headwaters and the main stem lost substantial flow to sinkholes until eventually discharging along large springs downstream. Seasonal hydrologic conditions shift the flow and nitrogen load spatially among losing and gaining stream sections. A compilation of nitrogen source inputs with the geochemistry and the pattern of enrichment of δ 15 N and δ 18 O suggest that the nitrogen in streams and springs during baseflow represents a mixture of manure, fertilizer, and wastewater sources with low potential for denitrification. The pH and calcite saturation index increased along generalized flow paths from headwaters to springs and indicate shorter groundwater residence times in baseflow during the spring versus summer. Given the substantial investment in management practices, fixed monitoring sites could incorporate synoptic water sampling to properly monitor long-term progress and help inform management actions in karst watersheds. Although karst watersheds have the potential to respond to nitrogen reduction strategies due to shorter groundwater residence times, high nitrogen inputs, effectiveness of conservation practices, and release of legacy nutrients within the karst cavities could confound progress of water quality goals.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2026

Nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for species undergoing environmental stressors

A fundamental task in ecological statistics is to estimate abundance and growth rate distributions from wildlife monitoring data to inform conservation management. Modeling time series of wildlife populations presents a number of challenges from both statistical and ecological perspectives, including discreteness; lack of replication; nonstationarity; and observation, demographic, and other phenomenological processes. Nonstationary dynamics are often exhibited by populations undergoing environmental stressors. Models must account for these characteristics to produce reliable estimates of abundance and trends, yet estimation can be challenging with unreplicated data. We propose nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for populations undergoing environmental stressors. A reduced growth rate model matches the complexity of the unreplicated count data, and a fecundity bound on growth rate distributions allows the separation of processes affecting growth rates like environmental stressors from those affecting abundance external to growth rates like migration. NDSSMs allow for the embedding of nonstationary model components, and we explore the use of changepoints, volatility clustering, and migration processes. We apply the proposed nonstationary models in case studies of herons affected by predator/competitor reestablishment and three bat species affected by a fungal pathogen causing white-nose syndrome. Nonstationary models outperform stationary models and generalized linear mixed effects models according to model scoring and visual inspection of predictions, and provide estimates more consistent with published values. Incorporating migration improves model fit universally, even with approximate one-way immigration, most likely because populations are extirpated, recolonized, and increase multiple-fold over the upper bound set by species fecundity. In addition, estimates of the timing and severity of the environmental stressor differed for models with migration. Including nonstationary and demographic components in a fecundity-bounded growth rate model improves inference and benefits interpretability of hyperparameters. In turn, this adjusts uncertainties in predictions of abundance and growth rates over time, providing the ingredients needed for informed conservation analysis and for directing future monitoring of at-risk species.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗
USGS2000

Monthly variability and possible sources of nitrate in ground water beneath mixed agricultural land use, Suwannee and Lafayette Counties, Florida

In an area of mixed agricultural land use in Suwannee and Lafayette Counties of northern Florida, water samples were collected monthly from 14 wells tapping the Upper Floridan aquifer during July 1998 through June 1999 to assess hydrologic and land-use factors affecting the variability in nitrate concentrations in ground water. Unusually high amounts of rainfall in September and October 1998 (43.5 centimeters total for both months) resulted in an increase in water levels in all wells in October 1998. This was followed by unusually low amounts of rainfall during November 1998 through May 1999, when rainfall was 40.7 centimeters below 30-year mean monthly values. The presence of karst features (sinkholes, springs, solution conduits) and the highly permeable sands that overlie the Upper Floridan aquifer provide for rapid movement of water containing elevated nitrate concentrations to the aquifer. Nitrate was the dominant form of nitrogen in ground water collected at all sites and nitrate concentrations ranged from less than 0.02 to 22 milligrams per liter (mg/L), as nitrogen. Water samples from most wells showed substantial monthly or seasonal fluctuations in nitrate concentrations. Generally, water samples from wells with nitrate concentrations higher than 10 mg/L showed the greatest amount of monthly fluctuation. For example, water samples from six of eight wells had monthly nitrate concentrations that varied by at least 5 mg/L during the study period. Water from most wells with lower nitrate concentrations (less than 6 mg/L) also showed large monthly fluctuations. For instance, nitrate concentrations in water from four sites showed monthly variations of more than 50 percent. Large fluctuations in nitrate concentrations likely result from seasonal agricultural practices (fertilizer application and animal waste spreading) at a particular site. For example, an increase in nitrate concentrations observed in water samples from seven sites in February or March 1999 most likely results from application of synthetic fertilizers during the late winter months. Lower nitrate concentrations were detected in water samples from five of eight wells sampled during high-flow conditions for the Suwannee River in March 1998 compared to low-flow conditions in November 1998. Evidence for reduction of nitrate due to denitrification reactions was observed at one site (AC-1), as indicated by elevated concentrations of nitrogen gas and a corresponding increase in nitrogen isotope (d15N-NO3) values with a decrease in nitrate concentrations. Denitrification is unlikely at other sites based on the presence of dissolved oxygen concentrations greater than 2 mg/L in ground water and no observed trend between nitrate concentrations and values d15N-NO3 values. Nitrate was the dominant nitrogen species in most monthly rainfall samples; however, ammonium concentrations were similar or greater than nitrate during November and December 1998. During February through May 1999, both nitrate and ammonium concentrations were substantially higher in monthly rainfall samples collected at the study area compared to mean monthly concentrations at the Bradford Forest site located east of the study area, which is part of the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network. Also, higher nitrogen deposition rates in the study area compared to those at Bradford Forest could indicate that substantial amounts of ammonia are volatilized from fertilizers and animal wastes, released to the atmosphere, and incorporated as nitrate and ammonium in rainfall deposited in the middle Suwannee River Basin. Ground-water samples from most sites had d15N-NO3 values that indicated a mixture of inorganic and organic sources of nitrogen, which corresponded to multiple land uses where both synthetic fertilizers and manure are used on fields near these sites. Distinct d15N-NO3 signatures, however, were observed at some sites. For example, water samples from areas of row-crop farming as the dominant land use had d15N-NO3 values less than 4 per mil, indicating an inorganic nitrogen source such as synthetic fertilizer. In contrast, d15N-NO3 values greater than 9 per mil were found in water samples from three sites where manure from dairy and or poultry operations is spread on fields throughout the year.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Improving crop-specific groundwater use estimation in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain: Implications for integrated remote sensing and machine learning approaches in data-scarce regions

Study region The Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) in the United States (US). Study focus Understanding local-scale groundwater use, a critical component of the water budget, is necessary for implementing sustainable water management practices. The MAP is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the US and extracts more than 11 km 3 /year for irrigation activities. Consequently, groundwater-level declines in the MAP region pose a substantial challenge to water sustainability, and hence, we need reliable groundwater pumping monitoring solutions to manage this resource appropriately. New hydrological insights for the region We incorporate remote sensing datasets and machine learning to improve an existing lookup table-based model of groundwater use previously developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Here, we employ Distributed Random Forests, an ensemble machine learning algorithm to predict annual and monthly groundwater use (2014–2020) throughout this region at 1-km resolution, using pumping data from existing flowmeters in the Mississippi Delta. Our model compares favorably with the existing USGS model, with higher R 2 (0.51 compared to 0.42 in the previous model), and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE)— 0.14 m and 0.09 m, respectively in our model, compared to 0.15 m and 0.1 m in the previous model. Therefore, this work advances our ability to predict groundwater use in regions with scarce or limited in-situ groundwater withdrawal data availability.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies↗
USGS1998

Water-quality assessment of the Ozark Plateaus study unit, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma — Nutrients, bacteria, organic carbon, and suspended sediment in surface water, 1993-95

Nutrient, bacteria, organic carbon, and suspended- sediment samples were collected from 1993-95 at 43 surface-water-quality sampling sites within the Ozark Plateaus National Water- Quality Assessment Program study unit. Most surface-water-quality sites have small or medium drainage basins, near-homogenous land uses (primarily agricultural or forest), and are located predominantly in the Springfield and Salem Plateaus. The water-quality data were analyzed using selected descriptive and statistical methods to determine factors affecting occurrence in streams in the study unit. Nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use increased in the Ozark Plateaus study unit for the period 1965-85, but the application rates are well below the national median. Fertilizer use differed substantially among the major river basins and physiographic areas in the study unit. Livestock and poultry waste is a major source of nutrient loading in parts of the study unit. The quantity of nitrogen and phosphorus from livestock and poultry wastes differed substantially among the river basins of the study unit's sampling network. Eighty six municipal sewage-treatment plants in the study unit have effluents of 0.5 million gallons per day or more (for the years 1985-91). Statistically significant differences existed in surface-water quality that can be attributed to land use, physiography, and drainage basin size. Dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, fecal coliform bacteria, and dissolved organic carbon concentrations generally were larger at sites associated with agricultural basins than at sites associated with forested basins. A large difference in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations occurred between streams draining basins with agricultural land use in the Springfield and Salem Plateaus. Streams draining both small and medium agricultural basins in the Springfield Plateau had much larger concentrations than their counterparts in the Salem Plateau. Drainage basin size was not a significant factor in affecting total phosphorus, fecal coliform bacteria, or dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Suspended-sediment concentrations generally were small and indicative of the clear water in streams in the Ozark Plateaus. A comparison of the dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform data collected at the fixed and synoptic sites indicates that generally the data for streams draining basins of similar physiography, land-use setting, and drainage basin size group together. Many of the variations are most likely the result of differences in percent agricultural land use between the sites being compared or are discharge related. The relation of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform concentration to percent agricultural land use has a strong positive 2 Water-Quality Assessment-Nutrients, Bacteria, Organic Carbon, and Suspended Sediment in Surface Water, 1993-95 correlation, with percent agricultural land use accounting for between 42 and 60 percent of the variation in the observed concentrations.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗