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Long Island South Shore Estuary Reserve Coordinated Water Resources Monitoring Strategy

Executive Summary The Long Island South Shore Estuary Reserve Coordinated Water Resources Monitoring Strategy (CWRMS) provides an overview of the water-quality and ecological monitoring within the Reserve and presents suggestions from stakeholders for future data collection, data management, and coordination among monitoring programs. The South Shore Estuary Reserve, hereafter referred to as the Reserve, is a 173-square-mile network of bays and tributaries shaped by the south shore of Long Island (New York) and the barrier islands that was formed as a result of the last ice age (roughly 18,000 years ago). This overview and coordination document is based on information assembled from a series of meetings, a workshop, and individual correspondences with the CWRMS Project Advisory Committee, which was formed in 2015 to help guide the creation of the document, which reflects the current (2017) status of the Reserve and the need for additional data to address its water-quality issues and ecological health and to respond to a changing climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New York State Department of State Office of Planning, Development and Community Infrastructure and the South Shore Estuary Reserve Office, compiled information and recommendations to help stakeholders efficiently evaluate waters currently being monitored and address areas where necessary data are lacking. Water-quality monitoring in the Reserve is ongoing on the Federal, State, and local levels, and coordination among the various programs administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; USGS; Shinnecock Tribal Nation; New York State; Nassau and Suffolk Counties; the Towns of Hempstead, Oyster Bay, Babylon, Islip, Brookhaven, and Southampton; and local universities and nonprofit organizations is necessary to ensure cooperation and efficient use of limited resources. Proper collection and archival of data are critical to the usability of data and methods—a sample of available repositories for monitoring data are provided in this report. Equally important are quality assurances of data and proper techniques of archival such that water and ecological data are collected and analyzed in a consistent manner, regardless of their sources, and that differences in methodologies are identified that might result in discrepancies in the compiled data. Details on monitoring programs, data gaps that are perceived by stakeholders and researchers in the area, and Project Advisory Committee recommendations are provided in this report to promote discussion and coordination. In most cases, resources to fill data gaps are needed, and the use of citizen science volunteers has been shown to help extend programs and provide insight into previously unaddressed areas of concern. This document, in conjunction with the CWRMS website and interactive mapper, is intended to inform the latest iteration of the Comprehensive Management Plan for the Reserve. Moreover, resource managers can use the CWRMS and mapper to identify areas of potential overlap and initiate conversations with stakeholders about addressing needs for additional monitoring of water quality and ecological health in the bays and tributaries of the Reserve.

New York

A comparison of the weights-of-evidence method and probabilistic neural networks

The need to integrate large quantities of digital geoscience information to classify locations as mineral deposits or nondeposits has been met by the weights-of-evidence method in many situations. Widespread selection of this method may be more the result of its ease of use and interpretation rather than comparisons with alternative methods. A comparison of the weights-of-evidence method to probabilistic neural networks is performed here with data from Chisel Lake-Andeson Lake, Manitoba, Canada. Each method is designed to estimate the probability of belonging to learned classes where the estimated probabilities are used to classify the unknowns. Using these data, significantly lower classification error rates were observed for the neural network, not only when test and training data were the same (0.02 versus 23%), but also when validation data, not used in any training, were used to test the efficiency of classification (0.7 versus 17%). Despite these data containing too few deposits, these tests of this set of data demonstrate the neural network's ability at making unbiased probability estimates and lower error rates when measured by number of polygons or by the area of land misclassified. For both methods, independent validation tests are required to ensure that estimates are representative of real-world results. Results from the weights-of-evidence method demonstrate a strong bias where most errors are barren areas misclassified as deposits. The weights-of-evidence method is based on Bayes rule, which requires independent variables in order to make unbiased estimates. The chi-square test for independence indicates no significant correlations among the variables in the Chisel Lake–Andeson Lake data. However, the expected number of deposits test clearly demonstrates that these data violate the independence assumption. Other, independent simulations with three variables show that using variables with correlations of 1.0 can double the expected number of deposits as can correlations of −1.0. Studies done in the 1970s on methods that use Bayes rule show that moderate correlations among attributes seriously affect estimates and even small correlations lead to increases in misclassifications. Adverse effects have been observed with small to moderate correlations when only six to eight variables were used. Consistent evidence of upward biased probability estimates from multivariate methods founded on Bayes rule must be of considerable concern to institutions and governmental agencies where unbiased estimates are required. In addition to increasing the misclassification rate, biased probability estimates make classification into deposit and nondeposit classes an arbitrary subjective decision. The probabilistic neural network has no problem dealing with correlated variables—its performance depends strongly on having a thoroughly representative training set. Probabilistic neural networks or logistic regression should receive serious consideration where unbiased estimates are required. The weights-of-evidence method would serve to estimate thresholds between anomalies and background and for exploratory data analysis.

Natural Resources Research

Earthquake stress drop and Arias Intensity

We determine earthquake stress drops directly from the Arias intensity database of NGA-West2. Arias intensity (Arias, 1970) is an engineering measure proportional to the integral of the absolute value of acceleration squared, over the significant duration of the signal. As such, it is closely related to root-mean-square acceleration, and can readily be connected to earthquake stress drop (Hanks and McGuire, 1981). Arias intensity records out to 100 km yield stable stress drops for moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes, M6.5+; for smaller events ~M4.5 – 6.5, only closer-in records yield stable results. For the 116 events considered, stress drops are about 35% larger for Class 1 mainshocks than for traditional on-fault Class 2 aftershocks, and smaller for those aftershocks close to the main fault plane. Aftershock stress drops show large variability, however, implying that on average they re-rupture weakened patches, but can also rupture intact rock or high-stress asperities. We observe an increase of stress drop with earthquake depth similar to that of other studies but do not find any significant faulting mechanism dependence. The variability of the Arias intensity-based stress drop is lower than that of eGf-based stress drops from Baltay et al. (2010, 2011), and nearly on par with variability seen in ground-motion prediction equations. The Arias intensity stress drop is a novel and promising method to estimate stress drop without the need for path and site corrections, and yields further insight into the connection between source physics and ground-motion.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Source parameters and crustal Q for four earthquakes in South Carolina

Two three-component seismometers (one surface and one borehole) were re-installed on the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina in July 1992 to determine attenuation in the Coastal Plain sediment wedge and source parameters of local earthquakes. Four earthquakes M ∼ 1.8 to 3.6 were recorded during the next 6 months. The largest event was located near Summerville within the meizoseismal area for the 1886 Charleston earthquake. Two shocks were located 50 km to the east near Neeses, and one was located 20 km north of the SRS near Aiken. Although source parameters have been determined from strong motion data and short-period regional networks for east coast earthquakes, such as the Saguenay, Nahanni, and Mt. Laurier earthquakes (e.g., Atkinson, 1993 ), these are some of the first source parameters determined from broad-band digital recorders. Seismograms for the Summerville event are also available from Chapel Hill, North Carolina and Blacksburg, Virginia, providing estimates of t * beyond 200 km. Here we determine source parameters such as moment, stress drop, and the attenuation parameter t * using a non-linear least-squares algorithm. We do not correct for site response because the deepest borehole is not below the Coastal Plain sediments (about 300m thick at this site) and because only one station is available for most of the data. Values of t* are marginally higher from seismograms recorded at the surface when compared to records from the 91m depth borehole seismograph. A value of 170-200 bars was determined for the Brune stress drop of the Summerville event using the borehole data, which is high compared to a value of 50 bars usually specified for modeling strong motion in western North America, but similar to other estimates for eastern North America. A higher stress drop leads to a higher seismic risk because peak acceleration is approximately proportional to stress drop. Moreover, mid- to upper-crustal Qs are in the range of 2,000 to 3,000, which would permit the propagation of high frequency seismic waves. A comparison of the surface records from the SRS with a record from the USGS dense array at Parkfield, CA for an event at about the same distance range and moment as the Summerville event-SRS case shows that the peak acceleration of the Summerville event is 16 times higher than that for the event from California (stress drop of 21 bars).

South Carolina

Waveform inversion of very long period impulsive signals associated with magmatic injection beneath Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

We use data from broadband seismometers deployed around the summit of Kilauea Volcano to quantify the mechanism associated with a transient in the flow of magma feeding the east rift eruption of the volcano. The transient is marked by rapid inflation of the Kilauea summit peaking at 22 μrad 4.5 hours after the event onset, followed by slow deflation over a period of 3 days. Superimposed on the summit inflation is a series of sawtooth displacement pulses, each characterized by a sudden drop in amplitude lasting 5–10 s followed by an exponential recovery lasting 1–3 min. The sawtooth waveforms display almost identical shapes, suggesting a process involving the repeated activation of a fixed source. The particle motion associated with each sawtooth is almost linear, and its major swing shows compressional motion at all stations. Analyses of semblance and particle motion are consistent with a point source located 1 km beneath the northeast edge of the Halemaumau pit crater. To estimate the source mechanism, we apply a moment tensor inversion to the waveform data, assuming a point source embedded in a homogeneous half-space with compressional and shear wave velocities representative of the average medium properties at shallow depth under Kilauea. Synthetic waveforms are constructed by a superposition of impulse responses for six moment tensor components and three single force components. The origin times of individual impulses are distributed along the time axis at appropriately small, equal intervals, and their amplitudes are determined by least squares. In this inversion, the source time functions of the six tensor and three force components are determined simultaneously. We confirm the accuracy of the inversion method through a series of numerical tests. The results from the inversion show that the waveform data are well explained by a pulsating transport mechanism operating on a subhorizontal crack linking the summit reservoir to the east rift of Kilauea. The crack acts like a buffer in which a batch of fluid (magma and/or gas) accumulates over a period of 1–3 min before being rapidly injected into a larger reservoir (possibly the east rift) over a timescale of 5–10 s. The seismic moment and volume change associated with a typical batch of fluid are approximately 10 14 N m and 3000 m 3 , respectively. Our results also point to the existence of a single force component with amplitude of 10 9 N, which may be explained as the drag force generated by the flow of viscous magma through a narrow constriction in the flow path. The total volume of magma associated with the 4.5-hour-long activation of the pulsating source is roughly 500,000 m 3 in good agreement with the integrated volume flow rate of magma estimated near the eruptive site.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Spatiotemporal evolution of dike opening and décollement slip at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i

Rapid changes in ground tilt and GPS positions on Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, are interpreted as resulting from a shallow, two‐segment dike intrusion into the east rift zone that began at 1217 UTC (0217 HST) on 17 June 2007 and lasted almost 3 days. As a result of the intrusion, a very small volume of basalt (about 1500 m 3 ) erupted on 19 June. Northward tilt at a coastal tiltmeter, subsidence of south flank GPS sites, southeastward displacements at southwestern flank GPS sites, and a swarm of flank earthquakes suggest that a slow slip event occurred on the décollement beneath Kīlauea's south flank concurrent with the rift intrusion. We use 4 min GPS positions that include estimates of time‐dependent tropospheric gradients and ground tilt data to study the spatial and temporal relationships between the two inferred shallow, steeply dipping dike segments extending from the surface to about 2 km depth and décollement slip at 8 km depth. We invert for the temporal evolution of distributed dike opening and décollement slip in independent inversions at each time step using a nonnegative least squares algorithm. On the basis of these inversions, the intrusion occurred in two stages that correspond spatially and temporally with concentrated rift zone seismicity. The dike opening began on the western of the two segments before jumping to the eastern segment, where the majority of opening accumulated. Dike opening preceded the start of décollement slip at an 84% confidence level; the latter is indicated by the onset of northward tilt of a coastal tiltmeter. Displacements at southwest flank GPS sites began about 18 h later and are interpreted as resulting from slow slip on the southwestern flank. Additional constraints on the evolution of the intrusion and décollement slip come from inversion of an Envisat interferogram that spans the intrusion until 0822 UTC on 18 June 2007, combined with GPS and tilt data. This inversion shows that up to 0822 UTC on 18 June, décollement slip is only required in a limited region offshore of Ka'ena Point. A similar inversion of the complete event, which includes GPS and tilt data up to 21 June and a second Envisat interferogram spanning the complete intrusion until 21 June, shows décollement slip spread westward across the south flank. This may suggest westward migration of the décollement slip as the event progressed.

Hawaii

Simulation of variable-density flow and transport of reactive and nonreactive solutes during a tracer test at Cape Cod, Massachusetts

A multispecies numerical code was developed to simulate flow and mass transport with kinetic adsorption in variable-density flow systems. The two-dimensional code simulated the transport of bromide (Br − ), a nonreactive tracer, and lithium (Li + ), a reactive tracer, in a large-scale tracer test performed in a sand-and-gravel aquifer at Cape Cod, Massachusetts. A two-fraction kinetic adsorption model was implemented to simulate the interaction of Li + with the aquifer solids. Initial estimates for some of the transport parameters were obtained from a nonlinear least squares curve-fitting procedure, where the breakthrough curves from column experiments were matched with one-dimensional theoretical models. The numerical code successfully simulated the basic characteristics of the two plumes in the tracer test. At early times the centers of mass of Br − and Li + sank because the two plumes were closely coupled to the density-driven velocity field. At later times the rate of downward movement in the Br − plume due to gravity slowed significantly because of dilution by dispersion. The downward movement of the Li + plume was negligible because the two plumes moved in locally different velocity regimes, where Li + transport was retarded relative to Br − . The maximum extent of downward transport of the Li + plume was less than that of the Br − plume. This study also found that at early times the downward movement of a plume created by a three-dimensional source could be much more extensive than the case with a two-dimensional source having the same cross-sectional area. The observed shape of the Br − plume at Cape Cod was simulated by adding two layers with different hydraulic conductivities at shallow depth across the region. The large dispersion and asymmetrical shape of the Li + plume were simulated by including kinetic adsorption-desorption reactions.

Massachusetts

Lithodiversity and its spatial association with metallic mineral sites, Great Basin of Nevada

Geographical information system (GIS) techniques were used to investigate the spatial association between metallic mineral sites and lithodiversity in Nevada. Mineral site data sets include various size and type subsets of about 5,500 metal-bearing occurrences and deposits. Lithodiversity was calculated by counting the number of unique geological map units within four sizes of square-shaped sample neighborhoods (2.5-by-2.5, 5-by-5, 10-by-10, and 20-by-20 km) on three different scales of geological maps (national, 1:2,500,000; state, 1:500,000; county, 1:250,000). The spatial association between mineral sites and lithodiversity was observed to increase with increasing lithodiversity. This relationship is consistent for (1) both basin-range and range-only regions, (2) four sizes of sample neighborhoods, (3) various mineral site subsets, (4) the three scales of geological maps, and (5) areas not covered by large-scale maps. A map scale of 1:500,000 and lithodiversity sampling neighborhood of 5-by-5 km was determined to best describe the association. Positive associations occurred for areas having >3 geological map units per neighborhood, with the strongest observed at approximately >7 units. Areas in Nevada with more than three geological map units per 5-by-5 km neighborhood contain more mineral sites than would be expected resulting from chance. High lithodiversity likely reflects the occurrence of complex structural, stratigraphic, and intrusive relationships that are thought to control, focus, localize, or expose mineralization. The application of lithodiversity measurements to areas that are not well explored may help delineate regional-scale exploration targets and provide GIS-supported mineral resource assessment and exploration activity another method that makes use of widely available geological map data.

Nevada

An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation

An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation has been constructed based on geomagnetic data obtained from 21 stations along the 210 Magnetic Meridian of the Circum‐pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (CPMN) from 1996 to 2007. Using the least squares fitting method for geomagnetically quiet days ( Kp ≤ 2+), the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation at each station was described as a function of solar activity SA , day of year DOY , lunar age LA , and local time LT . After interpolation in latitude, the model can describe solar‐activity dependence and seasonal dependence of solar quiet daily variations (S) and lunar quiet daily variations (L). We performed a spherical harmonic analysis (SHA) on these S and L variations to examine average characteristics of the equivalent external current systems. We found three particularly noteworthy results. First, the total current intensity of the S current system is largely controlled by solar activity while its focus position is not significantly affected by solar activity. Second, we found that seasonal variations of the S current intensity exhibit north‐south asymmetry; the current intensity of the northern vortex shows a prominent annual variation while the southern vortex shows a clear semi‐annual variation as well as annual variation. Thirdly, we found that the total intensity of the L current system changes depending on solar activity and season; seasonal variations of the L current intensity show an enhancement during the December solstice, independent of the level of solar activity.

Journal of Geophysical Research A: Space Physics

Apparent age dependence of the fault weakening distance in rock friction

During rock friction experiments at large displacement, room temperature and humidity, and following a hold test, the fracture energy increases approximately as the square of the logarithm of hold duration. While it's been long known that failure strength increases with log hold time, here the slip weakening distance, d h , also increases. The weakening distance increase is large, hundreds of percent change over a few thousand seconds. The initial bare surface and simulated fault gouge experiments were conducted in rotary shear at 25 MPa normal stress, 21 MPa confining stress and at displacements greater than 100 mm. In contrast, initially bare surface experiments at 5 MPa normal stress, unconfined at displacements less than 10 mm show effectively no change in d h . We attribute the difference to the presence of an appreciable shear zone that develops due to wear over significant displacements, confined at elevated normal stress. Prior published studies of sheared simulated fault gouge at short displacement show both acknowledged and unacknowledged increases in d h that may relate to our observations. Since natural faults have well-developed shear zones, the observations have more direct relevance to earthquake nucleation than prior laboratory studies that use short displacement data and focus on frictional strength recovery alone. However, the physics underlying this increase in weakening distance are not known; candidates are compaction (Nakatani, 1998) and delocalization (Sleep et al., 2000). Additional caveats are that these are room temperature and humidity experiments, at a single normal stress that have not yet been reproduced in other laboratories.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Twenty-First Annual report of the Director of the United States Geological Survey, 1899-1900: Part VII - Texas

Area treated. —The Black and Grand prairies of Texas and southern Indian Territory comprise about 50,000 square miles (see Pl. LXV, in pocket)—an area equal to that of fifty of the quadrangles mapped and described by the United States Geological Survey in its Geologic Atlas of the United States. The accompanying general geologic map (Pl. LXVI, in pocket) is a condensed presentation of the geology usually shown on that number of atlas sheets as published in folio form. Most of these quadrangles have been studied by the writer and his former assistants. Sources of data. —An entirely satisfactory presentation of these results is still impossible by reason of the lack of adequate maps. The topographic maps of the United States Geological Survey, which cover 24 of the 50 units of area, were made in the earlier years of the Survey and with a contour interval insufficient for the expression of the geology. For the remaining portion of the area it was necessary to use as a base the Land Office maps of the State of Texas. The conclusions herein presented, often condensed in a short paragraph, are founded upon a large amount of paleontologic, stratigraphic, and topographic data. The results, so far as they refer to the Black and Grand prairies, are the outcome of studies made by the writer since 1882, sometimes independently, sometimes with the assistance of the United States Geological Survey, and during two years in connection with the Texas Geological Survey. In times past he has been assisted in this work by his former students, C. C. McCulloch, now captain, U. S. A.; Messrs. Wilson T. Davidson and L. T. Dashiel; Mr. Joseph A. Taff, now of the United States Geological Survey; Dr. J. W. Stone, Mr. N. F. Drake, and Mr. G. H. Ragsdale. Inasmuch as the details which these gentlemem worked out were problems of the writer's suggestion, he has incorporated them into this paper, and here acknowledges indebtedness therefor. Upon the writer's retirement from the Texas Survey, Mr. Taff continued the work of mapping the region. He published two reports, which have been freely used and which have been of great assistance in the preparation of this paper. Importance of paleontology. —In addition to the collection of the data which appear in the text and illustrations, much paleontologic research has been necessary in order to classify the formations. Paleontology is the most reliable guide in determining the position of any bed in the geologic series with a view to ascertaining the depth, from any particular portion of the surface, of the underground waters in the Cretaceous regions of Texas. If a few species of fossils, such as can be found in any locality, be sent to one familiar with the sequence of the beds, he can predict within a few feet the depth below the surface of any particular water-bearing stratum in the series. It was a labor of years to disentangle the preexisting confusion concerning the occurrence and succession of these fossils and their bearings upon the determination and definition of the strata. Their further consideration has been left to Mr. T. W. Stanton, who, it is presumed, will make final publication of the descriptions and the scientific results. This is not a final and complete report. Detailed field work is desirable in many localities. Chemical analyses of water and illustrations of typical scenery should be more complete, but these were not obtainable with the means and time at the writer's disposal. When appreciation of geologic investigation shall have been awakened in Texas and the region under discussion shall have been studied more closely by resident students, in the manner now common in other parts of the United States, the data here presented will be largely increased and refined, and the conclusions will doubtless be correspondingly amended and rectified.

Texas

Davis Pond freshwater prediversion biomonitoring study: freshwater fisheries and eagles

In January 2001, the construction of the Davis Pond freshwater diversion structure was completed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The diversion of freshwater from the Mississippi River is intended to mitigate saltwater intrusion from the Gulf of Mexico and to lessen the concomitant loss of wetland areas. In addition to the freshwater inflow, Barataria Bay basin would receive nutrients, increased flows of sediments, and water-borne and sediment-bound compounds. The purpose of this biomonitoring study was, therefore, to serve as a baseline for prediversion concentrations of selected contaminants in bald eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) nestlings (hereafter referred to as eaglets), representative freshwater fish, and bivalves. Samples were collected from January through June 2001. Two similarly designed postdiversion studies, as described in the biological monitoring program, are planned. Active bald eagle nests targeted for sampling eaglet blood (n = 6) were generally located southwest and south of the diversion structure. The designated sites for aquatic animal sampling were at Lake Salvador, at Lake Cataouatche, at Bayou Couba, and along the Mississippi River. Aquatic animals representative of eagle prey were collected. Fish were from three different trophic levels and have varying feeding strategies and life histories. These included herbivorous striped mullet ( Mugil cephalus ), omnivorous blue catfish ( Ictalurus furcatus ), and carnivorous largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ). Three individuals per species were collected at each of the four sampling sites. Freshwater Atlantic rangia clams ( Rangia cuneata ) were collected at the downstream marsh sites, and zebra mussels ( Dreissena spp.) were collected on the Mississippi River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biomonitoring of Environmental Status and Trends (BEST) protocols served as guides for fish sampling and health assessments. Fish are useful for monitoring aquatic ecosystems because they accumulate pesticides and other contaminants. Biomarker data on individual fish, generated at the USGS National Wetlands Research Center (Lafayette, La.), included percent white blood cells in whole blood, spleen weight to body weight ratio, liver weight to body weight ratio, condition factor, splenic macrophage aggregates, and liver microsomal 7-ethoxyresorufin-o-deethylase (EROD) activity. Fish age was estimated by comparing total lengths with values from the same species in the Southeast United States as determined from the literature. Contaminant analyses were coordinated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Analytical Control Facility (Laurel, Md.), where residues of organochlorine (OC) pesticides, total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), aliphatic hydrocarbons (AHs), and trace elements were determined. The organic contaminant data were generated at the Mississippi State University Chemical Lab (Mississippi State, Miss.), and the inorganic contaminant data were generated by the Texas A&M University Geochemical and Environmental Research Group (College Station, Tex.). Statistical tests were performed to assess relationships among contaminants, fish age, fish species, and collection sites. Trends in interspecific differences among fish in concentrations of contaminants were noted. Striped mullet (hereafter mullet) frequently displayed the highest chemical concentrations. Levels of contaminants were generally higher in samples obtained from the Mississippi River than in those collected from the diversion area and were higher in mussels and clams (hereafter bivalves) than in fish. Because the Mississippi River sampling site for mullet and largemouth bass was downriver of the structure and south of New Orleans and the catfish site was upriver, the downriver data may not be directly reflective of the results from the receiving waters at the Davis Pond structure. Compared to the Caernarvon freshwater prediversion study in 1990 that assessed possible influx of contaminants with the freshwater diversion, contaminant levels in fishes and bivalves in this study were generally lower, yet three nontoxic inorganic elements in Davis Pond fish samples exhibited ranges of concentrations that were more than two times higher than did those from Caernarvon. Levels in bivalves were different between diversions but about equal in the numbers of trace elements showing high levels per location. Contaminant values were compared to those listed in various literature and agency sources, both regional and national, including the National Contaminant Biomonitoring Program (NCBP), in which the 85th percentile and above represents what is considered to be an elevated contaminant concentration and cause for concern. Generally, bivalves were at the high end of their ranges for both organic and inorganic contaminants. In this study, OCs were detectable in 67 percent of fish from the Mississippi River site, ranging from 0.15 to 1.09 μg/g wet weight (ww) or fresh weight (fw), and in 11 percent of the fish from the marsh sites, ranging from 0.06 to 0.612 μg/g ww. Bivalves from the Mississippi River had OC levels of 0.096 μg/g ww, whereas none were detectable in bivalves at the marsh sites. In this study, p,p ’-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene ( p,p’ -DDE) (a biodegradation product of DDT [dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane]) and total PCBs were the most frequently detected OCs and were primarily from the Mississippi River. For total OC content, using adjusted least squares means, some significant interactions were noted between fish species and sites. PAHs were detected in aquatic animals at all sites (range of 0.017–17.534 μg/g ww), as were AHs (range of 0.423–4.549 μg/g ww); the highest levels of PAHs and AHs were found in bivalves from the Mississippi River. When analysis of variance (α = 0.05) was performed with data from aquatic animals, there were only two significant relationships between PAHs, AHs, and OCs between species, site, and age or the interaction among these variables. There was an interaction between fish species and n-decane (an AH) in that mullet and largemouth bass had significantly higher levels than did catfish ( P = 0.0175). When general linear means were used to investigate associations of inorganic contaminants among fish species, site, and age or any interactions among these variables, no significant results were noted for arsenic, cadmium, lead, beryllium, boron, molybdenum, or nickel. The range of mercury in fish in this study was 0.04–0.14 μg/g ww (0.14– 0.48 μg/g dry weight [dw]), with the most elevated levels detected in predatory largemouth bass at the sampling point farthest downstream from the structure and within the marsh area. Mercury was positively correlated with fish age ( P = 0.0152), where levels were estimated to increase 0.0253 parts per million (ppm) dw per year. In the Mississippi River, catfish showed significantly higher levels of mercury than did mullet or largemouth bass ( P = 0.00167). Among fish species, mullet displayed the highest levels in fish of aluminum, barium, manganese, and iron, all considered to have low toxicity in hydrologic systems. An interaction between fish and site was seen with aluminum ( P = 0.0031), where concentrations in mullet were significantly higher in the Mississippi River than at the other sites, as was also seen with barium ( P = 0.0009), chromium ( P = <0.0001), manganese ( P = 0.0004), strontium ( P = 0.0074), vanadium ( P = 0.0156), and zinc ( P = 0.0059). For iron ( P = 0.0.0001), mullet and largemouth bass at both the Mississippi River and Lake Salvador showed higher levels than did catfish, and these two species showed higher levels at two of the four sites. An interaction between fish and site was also seen with chromium ( P = <0.0001) in that concentrations in mullet were significantly higher in the Mississippi River than at the other sites, as was also seen with strontium ( P = 0.0074), vanadium ( P = 0.0156), and zinc ( P = 0.0059), metals for which deleterious effects have been demonstrated in other ecosystems. The NCBP program lists the 85th percentile for zinc at 34.2 μg/g fw (117.9 μg/g dw). In the Davis Pond prediversion biomonitoring study (hereafter the current study), one fish (MUL31RIVER, fish ID 8) showed values higher than that (125.4 μg/g dw or 37.54 μg/g ww), and the Mississippi River bivalve sample (MUSSRIVER) had a value of 140 μg/g dw (41.2 μg/g ww). In the current study, approximately 86 percent of the fish had measurable selenium levels, yet none reached the 85th percentile. The 85th percentile for selenium from the NCBP was 0.73 μg/g ww. Significantly higher levels of selenium were seen in mullet than in largemouth bass and catfish ( P = 0.0023). The NCBP 85th percentile for lead is 0.22 μg/g ww (0.76 μg/g dw). In the current study, the range of concentrations of lead was as much as 18.3 ppm dw (MUL31RIVER, fish ID 8), with the three most elevated values (range of 3.46–5.31 μg/g ww) coming from mullet from the Mississippi River. Biomarker data are measurable and directly reflect the condition of the animal, and measuring more than one biomarker in an individual increases confidence in health assessments. In the current study, biomarkers included macrophage aggregates (MAs), liver (hepatosomatic index [HSI]) and spleen (splenosomatic index [SSI]) weight to body weight ratios, percent white blood cells (WBCs) in whole blood, and condition factor. Few significant differences were noted with any of the biomarkers between sites, and there were no relationships between species and sites. For improved use of biomarker assessments, an increase in fish sample size would be useful for postdiversion sampling, as would comparisons of fish of the same sex and reproductive condition. During the current study, success for eagle nests in the diversion area and reference sites was similar as determined by numbers of nestlings fledged. When temperatures were below average during winter 2000, nests in both regions similarly failed. At each nest, the primary evidence of food items was small mammals. Eaglets (n = 6) generally appeared healthy, and whole blood concentrations of organic contaminants exceeded detection limits with three incidences of p,p’ -DDE (0.002–0.006 μg/L ww) and one incidence of oxychlordane (0.002 μg/L ww). The levels of p,p’ -DDE were well below those that have been inversely correlated with productivity and success rates of nesting bald eagles on a regional scale. The low values found in the whole blood samples for OC pesticides and PCBs were even lower when corrected for plasma volume. Aluminum values were 3.66 and 5.75 μg/L in two samples, zinc ranged from 5.21 to 6.77 μg/L ww in six samples, and silicon ranged from 1.7 to 4.6 μg/L in four samples. Selenium was detectable in each bird with the range at 0.332–0.566 μg/L ww, and strontium ranged from 0.0581 to 0.0975 μg/L ww. Mercury was detectable in blood samples from each bird and ranged from 0.0254 to 0.0845 μg/L ww, whereas lead was detectable in four samples and ranged from 0.0042 to 0.0136 μg/L ww. Although no detectable levels of total PCBs were found (also correlated with decreased reproductive productivity), 70 percent of the aquatic animals from the Mississippi River contained total PCBs (range 0.13–0.79 μg/L), whereas only about 7 percent of the aquatic animals sampled from the marsh area contained PCBs. Suggestions for postdiversion sampling include lowering the analytical detection limit for some metals, sampling aquatic animals over the course of a single season, obtaining a higher sample number of mature fish of one species (for example, blue catfish) within a range of total lengths for biomarker analyses, obtaining otoliths for estimating fish ages, assessing dioxins in eaglet blood, examining triazines in water, and obtaining all Mississippi River fish samples as close to the Davis Pond structure intake as possible. Because contaminants found in blood of eaglets reflect their prey species and because of the contaminant levels found in fish in the current study, eaglets may not be consuming primarily these species; therefore, obtaining juvenile nutria ( Myocastor coypus ) or turtle species for contaminant analyses might be considered, as well as collecting greater blood volume and using plasma to measure OCs and PCBs. Data obtained postdiversion will be compared with prediversion data to monitor changes.

Louisiana

Water and bed-material quality of selected streams and reservoirs in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, 1988-94

The Triangle Area Water Supply Monitoring Project was formed by a consortium of local governments and governmental agencies in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey to supplement existing data on conventional pollutants, nutrients, and metals to enable eventual determination of long-term trends; to examine spatial differences among water supplies within the region, especially differences between smaller upland sources, large multipurpose reservoirs, and run-of-river supplies; to provide tributary loading inlake data for predictive modeling of Falls of the Neuse and B. Everett Jordan reservoirs; and to establish a database for synthetic organic compounds. Water-quality sampling began in October 1988 at 35 sites located on area run-of-river and reservoir water supplies and their tributaries. Sampling has continued through 1994. Samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, trace metals, pesticides, and semivolatile and volatile organic compounds. Monthly concentration data, high-flow concentration data, and data on daily mean streamflow at most stream sites were used to calculate loadings of nitrogen, phosphorus, suspended sediment, and trace metals to reservoirs. Stream and lake sites were assigned to one of five site categories-- (1) rivers, (2) large multipurpose reservoirs, (3) small water-supply reservoirs, (4) streams below urban areas and wastewater-treatment plants, and (5) headwater streams--according to general site characteristics. Concentrations of nitrogen species, phosphorus species, and selected trace metals were compared by site category using nonparametric analysis of variance techniques and qualitatively (trace metals). Wastewater-treatment plant effluents and urban runoff had a significant impact on water quality compared to reservoirs and headwater streams. Streams draining these areas had more mineralized water than streams draining undeveloped areas. Moreover, median nitrogen and nitrite plus nitrate concentrations were significantly greater than all other site categories. Phosphorus was significantly greater than for reservoir sites or headwater streams. Few concentrations of trace metals were greater than the minimum reporting limit, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standards were rarely exceeded. Detections, when they occurred, were most frequent for sites below urban areas and wastewater-treatment plant effluents. A small number of samples for analysis of acetanilide, triazine, carbamate, and chlorophenoxy acid pesticides indicate that some of these compounds are generally present in area waters in small concentrations. Organochlorine and organophosphorus pesticides are ubiquitous in the study area in very small concentrations. Trihalomethanes were detected at sites below urban areas and wastewater-treatment plants. Otherwise, volatile organic compounds and semivolatile compounds were generally not detected. Suspended-sediment, nitrogen, phosphorus, lead, and zinc loads into Falls Lake, Jordan Lake, University Lake, Cane Creek Reservoir, Little River Reservoir, and Lake Michie were calculated. In general, reservoirs act as traps for suspended sediment and constituents associated with suspended sediments. During 1989-94, annual suspended-sediment load to Falls Lake ranged from 29,500 to 88,200 tons. Because Lake Michie trapped from 83 to 93 percent of the suspended sediment delivered by Flat River, Flat River is a minor contributor of suspended sediment to Falls Lake. Yields of suspended sediment from Little River, Little Lick Creek, and Flat River Basins were between 184 and 223 tons per square mile and appear to have increased increased slightly from yields reported in a study for the period 1970-79. Annual suspended-sediment load to Jordan Lake ranged from 271,000 to 622,000 tons from 1989 through 1994 water years. The Haw River contributed more than 75 percent of the tota load to Jordan Lake. The suspended-sediment yields for Haw River and Northeast Cree

North Carolina

Weathering, landscape equilibrium, and carbon in four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico: Chapter H in Water quality and landscape processes of four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico

The U.S. Geological Survey's Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program research in eastern Puerto Rico involves a double pair-wise comparison of four montane river basins, two on granitic bedrock and two on fine-grained volcaniclastic bedrock; for each rock type, one is forested and the other is developed. A confounding factor in this comparison is that the developed watersheds are substantially drier than the forested (runoff of 900&ndash;1,600 millimeters per year compared with 2,800&ndash;3,700 millimeters per year). To reduce the effects of contrasting runoff, the relation between annual runoff and annual constituent yield were used to estimate mean-annual yields at a common, intermediate mean-annual runoff of 1,860 millimeters per year. Upon projection to this intermediate runoff, the ranges of mean-annual yields among all watersheds became more compact or did not substantially change for dissolved bedrock, sodium, silica, chloride, dissolved organic carbon, and calcium. These constituents are the primary indicators of chemical weathering, biological activity on the landscape, and atmospheric inputs; the narrow ranges indicate little preferential influence by either geology or land cover. The projected yields of biologically active constituents (potassium, nitrate, ammonium ion, phosphate), and particulate constituents (suspended bedrock and particulate organic carbon) were considerably greater for developed landscapes compared with forested watersheds, consistent with the known effects of land clearing and human waste inputs. Equilibrium rates of combined chemical and physical weathering were estimated by using a method based on concentrations of silicon and sodium in bedrock, river-borne solids, and river-borne solutes. The observed rates of landscape denudation greatly exceed rates expected for a dynamic equilibrium, except possibly for the forested watershed on volcaniclastic rock. Deforestation and agriculture can explain the accelerated physical erosion in the two developed watersheds. Because there has been no appreciable deforestation, something else, possibly climate or forest-quality change, must explain the accelerated erosion in the forested watersheds on granitic rocks. Particulate organic carbon yields are closely linked to sediment yields. This relation implies that much of the particulate organic carbon transport in the four rivers is being caused by this enhanced erosion aided by landslides and fast carbon recovery. The increase in particulate organic carbon yields over equilibrium is estimated to range from 300 kilomoles per square kilometer per year (6 metric tons carbon per square kilometer per year) to 1,700 kilomoles per square kilometer per year (22 metric tons carbon per square kilometer per year) and is consistent with human-accelerated particulate-organic-carbon erosion and burial observed globally. There is no strong evidence of human perturbation of silicate weathering in the four study watersheds, and differences in dissolved inorganic carbon are consistent with watershed geology. Although dissolved organic carbon is slightly elevated in the developed watersheds, that elevation is not enough to unambiguously demonstrate human causes; more work is needed. Accordingly, the dissolved organic carbon and dissolved inorganic carbon yields of tropical rivers, although large, are of secondary importance in the study of the anthropgenically perturbed carbon cycle.

Professional Paper

What makes hydromagmatic eruptions violent? Some insights from the Keanakāko'i Ash, Kı̄lauea Volcano, Hawai'i

Volcanic eruptions at the summit of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i, are of two dramatically contrasting types: (1) benign lava flows and lava fountains; and (2) violent, mostly prehistoric eruptions that dispersed tephra over hundreds of square kilometers. The violence of the latter eruptions has been attributed to mixing of water and magma within a wet summit caldera; however, magma injection into water at other volcanoes does not consistently produce widespread tephras. To identify other factors that may have contributed to the violence of these eruptions, we sampled tephra from the Keanakako'i Ash, the most recent large hydromagmatic deposit, and measured vesicularity, bubble-number density and dissolved volatile content of juvenile matrix glass to constrain magma ascent rate and degree of degassing at the time of quenching. Bubble-number densities (9X10 (super 4) -1X10 (super 7) cm (super -3) ) of tephra fragments exceed those of most historically erupted Kilauean tephras (3X10 (super 3) -1.8X10 (super 5) cm (super -3) ), and suggest exceptionally high magma effusion rates. Dissolved sulfur (average=330 ppm) and water (0.15-0.45 wt.%) concentrations exceed equilibrium-saturation values at 1 atm pressure (100-150 ppm and approximately 0.09%, respectively), suggesting that clasts quenched before equilibrating to atmospheric pressure. We interpret these results to suggest rapid magma injection into a wet crater, perhaps similar to continuous-uprush jets at Surtsey. Estimates of Reynolds number suggest that the erupting magma was turbulent and would have mixed with surrounding water in vortices ranging downward in size to centimeters. Such fine-scale mixing would have ensured rapid heat exchange and extensive magma fragmentation, maximizing the violence of these eruptions.

Hawaii

The Steens Mountain (Oregon) geomagnetic polarity transition, 2. Field intensity variations and discussion of reversal models

We carried out an extensive paleointensity study of the 15.5±0.3 m.y. Miocene reversed‐to‐normal polarity transition recorded in lava flows from Steens Mountain (south central Oregon). One hundred eighty‐five samples from the collection whose paleodirectional study is reported by Mankinen et al. (this issue) were chosen for paleointensity investigations because of their low viscosity index, high Curie point and reversibility, or near reversibility, of the strong field magnetization curve versus temperature. Application of the Thellier stepwise double heating method was very successful, yielding 157 usable paleointensity estimates corresponding to 73 distinct lava flows. After grouping successive lava flows that did not differ significantly in direction and intensity, we obtained 51 distinguishable, complete field vectors of which 10 are reversed, 28 are transitional, and 13 are normal. The record is complex, quite unlike that predicted by simple flooding or standing nondipole field models. It begins with an estimated several thousand years of reversed polarity with an average intensity of 31.5±8.5 μT, about one third lower than the expected Miocene intensity. This difference is interpreted as a long‐term reduction of the dipole moment prior to the reversal. When site directions and intensities are considered, truly transitional directions and intensities appear almost at the same time at the beginning of the transition, and they disappear simultaneously at the end of the reversal. Large deviations in declination occur during this approximately 4500±1000 year transition period that are compatible with roughly similar average magnitudes of zonal and nonzonal field components at the site. The transitional intensity is generally low, with an average of 10.9±4.9 μT for directions more than 45° away from the dipole field and a minimum of about 5 μT. The root‐mean‐square of the three field components X , Y , and Z are of the same order of magnitude for the transitional field and the historical nondipole field at the site latitude. However, a field intensity increase to pretransitional values occurs when the field temporarily reaches normal directions, which suggests that dipolar structure could have been briefly regenerated during the transition in an aborted attempt to reestablish a stationary field. Changes in the field vector are progressive but jerky, with at least two, and possibly three, large swings at astonishingly high rates. Each of those transitional geomagnetic impulses occurs when the field intensity is low (less than 10 μT) and is followed by an interval of directional stasis during which the magnitude of the field increases greatly. For the best documented geomagnetic impulse the rapid directional change corresponds to a vectorial intensity change of 6700±2700 nT yr −1 , which is about 15–50 times larger than the maximum rate of change of the nondipole field observed during the last centuries. The occurrence of geomagnetic impulses seems to support reversal models assuming an increase in the level of turbulence within the liquid core during transitions. The record closes with an estimated several thousand years of normal polarity with an average intensity of 46.7±20.1 μT, agreeing with the expected Miocene value. However, the occurrence of rather large and apparently rapid intensity fluctuations accompanied by little change in direction suggests that the newly reestablished dipole was still somewhat unstable.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Method for calculating self-noise spectra and operating ranges for seismographic inertial sensors and recorders

Understanding the performance of sensors and recorders is prerequisite to making appropriate use of them in seismology and earthquake engineering. This paper explores a critical aspect of instrument performance, the “self” noise level of the device and the amplitude range it can usefully record. Self noise limits the smallest signals, while instrument clipping level creates the upper limit (above which it either cannot produce signals or becomes unacceptably nonlinear). Where these levels fall, and the “operating range” between them, determines much of the instrument's viability and the applications for which it is appropriate. The representation of seismic-instrument self-noise levels and their effective operating ranges (cf., dynamic range) for seismological inertial sensors, recorders (data acquisition units, or DAUs), and integrated systems of sensors and recorders (data acquisition systems, or DASs) forces one to address an unnatural comparison between transient finite-bandwidth signals, such as earthquake records, and the instrument's self noise, an effectively stationary signal of infinite duration. In addition to being transient, earthquakes and other records of interest are characterized by a peak amplitude and generally a narrow, peaked spectral shape. Unfortunately, any power spectrum computed for such transient signals is ill defined, since the maximum of that spectrum depends strongly upon signal and record durations. In contrast, the noise floor of an instrument is approximately stationary and properly described by a power spectral density (PSD) or its root (rPSD). Put another way, earthquake records have units of amplitude ( e.g. , m/s 2 ) while PSDs have units of amplitude-squared per hertz ( e.g. , (m/s 2 ) 2 /Hz) and the rPSD has units of amplitude per root of hertz ( e.g. , (m/s 2 )/Hz 1/2 ). Thus, this incompatability is a conflict between earthquake (amplitude) and PSD (spectral density) units that requires one to make various assumptions before they can be compared. For purposes of instrument operational performance, we provide a means of evaluating signal and noise and the range between them in a manner representative of time-domain instrument performance. We call these “operating range diagrams” (ORDs), plots of instrument self noise and clipping level; the “operating range” is the range between these values. For frequency-domain performance we elect to show self noise as an rPSD that may be compared to another instrument's noise or to ambient Earth noise ( e.g. , Peterson 1993); however, to limit the number of arbitrary choices required to merge transient and stationary signals we do not compare the rPSD to transient signals in the frequency domain. Our solution for a time-domain comparison is not new but rather builds upon the consensus of the first and second Guidelines for Seismometer Testing workshops (Hutt et al. 2009) and long established practice in acoustics. We propose this method as a standard for characterizing seismic instruments, and it has been endorsed by the second workshop (Hutt et al. 2009, 2010) and the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Working Group (2008) and recent ANSS procurement specifications.

Seismological Research Letters

Automated cropland mapping of continental Africa using Google Earth Engine cloud computing

The automation of agricultural mapping using satellite-derived remotely sensed data remains a challenge in Africa because of the heterogeneous and fragmental landscape, complex crop cycles, and limited access to local knowledge. Currently, consistent, continent-wide routine cropland mapping of Africa does not exist, with most studies focused either on certain portions of the continent or at most a one-time effort at mapping the continent at coarse resolution remote sensing. In this research, we addressed these limitations by applying an automated cropland mapping algorithm (ACMA) that captures extensive knowledge on the croplands of Africa available through: (a) ground-based training samples, (b) very high (sub-meter to five-meter) resolution imagery (VHRI), and (c) local knowledge captured during field visits and/or sourced from country reports and literature. The study used 16-day time-series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composited data at 250-m resolution for the entire African continent. Based on these data, the study first produced accurate reference cropland layers or RCLs (cropland extent/areas, irrigation versus rainfed, cropping intensities, crop dominance, and croplands versus cropland fallows) for the year 2014 that provided an overall accuracy of around 90% for crop extent in different agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The RCLs for the year 2014 (RCL2014) were then used in the development of the ACMA algorithm to create ACMA-derived cropland layers for 2014 (ACL2014). ACL2014 when compared pixel-by-pixel with the RCL2014 had an overall similarity greater than 95%. Based on the ACL2014, the African continent had 296 Mha of net cropland areas (260 Mha cultivated plus 36 Mha fallows) and 330 Mha of gross cropland areas. Of the 260 Mha of net cropland areas cultivated during 2014, 90.6% (236 Mha) was rainfed and just 9.4% (24 Mha) was irrigated. Africa has about 15% of the world’s population, but only about 6% of world’s irrigation. Net cropland area distribution was 95 Mha during season 1, 117 Mha during season 2, and 84 Mha continuous. About 58% of the rainfed and 39% of the irrigated were single crops (net cropland area without cropland fallows) cropped during either season 1 (January-May) or season 2 (June-September). The ACMA algorithm was deployed on Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform and applied on MODIS time-series data from 2003 through 2014 to obtain ACMA-derived cropland layers for these years (ACL2003 to ACL2014). The results indicated that over these twelve years, on average: (a) croplands increased by 1 Mha/yr, and (b) cropland fallows decreased by 1 Mha/year. Cropland areas computed from ACL2014 for the 55 African countries were largely underestimated when compared with an independent source of census-based cropland data, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 3.5 Mha. ACMA demonstrated the ability to hind-cast (past years), now-cast (present year), and forecast (future years) cropland products using MODIS 250-m time-series data rapidly, but currently, insufficient reference data exist to rigorously report trends from these results.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing