USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Nature Sustainability”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network

A global network of subsea telecommunications cables underpins our daily lives, enabling >95% of global digital data transfer, $trillions/day in financial trading, and providing critical communications links, particularly to remote, low-income countries. Despite their importance, subsea cables and their landing stations are vulnerable to damage by natural hazards, including storm surges, waves, cyclones, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions , submarine landslides and ice scour. However, the likelihood or recurrence interval of many of these types of events will likely change under future projected climate change scenarios, compounded by sea-level rise; potentially increasing hazard severity, creating previously unanticipated hazards, or hazards may shift to new locations during the 20–30-year operational life of cable systems. To date, no study has assessed the wide-reaching impacts of future climate change on subsea cables and landing stations on a global scale. Here, for the first time we synthesize the current evidence base, based on published peer-reviewed datasets, to fill this crucial knowledge gap, specifically to assess how and where future climate change is likely to impact subsea cables and their shore-based infrastructure. We find that ocean conditions are highly likely to change on a global basis as a result of climate change, but the feedbacks and links between climate change, natural processes and human activities are often complicated, resulting in a high degree of geographic variability. We identify climate change ‘hotspots’ (regions and locations likely to experience the greatest impacts) but find that not all areas will be affected in the same manner, nor synchronously by the same processes. We conclude that cable routes should carefully consider locally-variable drivers of hazard frequency and magnitude. Consideration should be given both to instantaneous events (e.g. landslides, tropical cyclones) as well as longer-term, sustained impacts (e.g. seabed currents that circulate even in deep water). Multiple factors can combine to increase the risk posed to subsea cables, hence a holistic approach is essential to assess the compounded effects of both natural processes and human activities in the future.

Earth Science Reviews↗
USGS2017

Protected areas as social-ecological systems: perspectives from resilience and social-ecological systems theory

Conservation biology and applied ecology increasingly recognize that natural resource management is both an outcome and a driver of social, economic, and ecological dynamics. Protected areas offer a fundamental approach to conserving ecosystems, but they are also social-ecological systems whose ecological management and sustainability are heavily influenced by people. This editorial, and the papers in the invited feature that it introduces, discuss three emerging themes in social-ecological systems approaches to understanding protected areas: (1) the resilience and sustainability of protected areas, including analyses of their internal dynamics, their effectiveness, and the resilience of the landscapes within which they occur; (2) the relevance of spatial context and scale for protected areas, including such factors as geographic connectivity, context, exchanges between protected areas and their surrounding landscapes, and scale dependency in the provision of ecosystem services; and (3) efforts to reframe what protected areas are and how they both define and are defined by the relationships of people and nature. These emerging themes have the potential to transform management and policy approaches for protected areas and have important implications for conservation, in both theory and practice.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2023

PopEquus: a predictive modeling tool to support management decisions for free-roaming horse populations

Feral horse ( Equus caballus ) population management is a challenging problem around the world because populations often exhibit density-independent growth, can exert negative ecological effects on ecosystems, and require great cost to be managed. However, strong value-based connections between people and horses cause contention around management decisions. To help make informed decisions, natural resource managers might benefit from more detailed understanding of how horse management alternatives, including combinations of removals and fertility control methods, could achieve objectives of sustainable, multiple-use ecosystems while minimizing overall horse handling and fiscal costs. Here, we describe a modeling tool that simulates horse management alternatives and estimates trade-offs in predicted metrics related to population size, animal handling, and direct costs of management. The model considers six management actions for populations (removals for adoption or long-term holding; fertility control treatment with three vaccines, intrauterine devices, and mare sterilization), used alone or in combination. We simulated 19 alternative management scenarios at 2-, 3-, and 4-year management return intervals and identified efficiency frontiers among alternatives for trade-offs between predicted population size and six management metrics. Our analysis identified multiple alternatives that could maintain populations within target population size ranges, but some alternatives (e.g., removal and mare sterilization, removal and GonaCon treatment) performed better at minimizing overall animal handling requirements and management costs. Cost savings increased under alternatives with more effective, longer lasting fertility control techniques over longer management intervals compared with alternatives with less-effective, shorter lasting fertility control techniques. We built a user-friendly website application, PopEquus , that decision makers and interested individuals can use to simulate management alternatives and evaluate trade-offs among management and cost metrics. Our results and website application provide quantitative trade-off tools for horse population management decisions and can help support value-based management decisions for wild or feral horse populations and ecosystems at local and regional scales around the world.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2010

Estimation of the effects of land use and groundwater withdrawals on streamflow for the Pomperaug River, Connecticut

A precipitation runoff model for the Pomperaug River watershed, Connecticut was developed to address issues of concern including the effect of development on streamflow and groundwater recharge, and the implications of water withdrawals on streamflow. The model was parameterized using a strategy that requires a minimum of calibration and optimization by establishing basic relations between the parameter value and physical characteristics of individual hydrologic response units (HRUs) that comprise the model. The strategy was devised so that the information needed can be obtained from Geographic Information System and other general databases for Connecticut. Simulation of groundwater recharge enabled evaluation of the temporal and spatial mapping of recharge variation across the watershed and the spatial effects of changes in land cover on base flow and surface runoff. The modeling indicated that over the course of a year, groundwater provides between 60 and 70 percent of flow in the Pomperaug River; the remainder is generated by more rapid flow through the shallow subsurface and runoff from impermeable surfaces and saturated ground. Groundwater is recharged primarily during periods of low evapotranspiration in the winter, spring, and fall. The largest amount of recharge occurs in the spring in response to snowmelt. During floods, the Weekeepeemee and Nonnewaug Rivers (tributaries that form the Pomperaug River) respond rapidly with little flood peak attenuation due to flood-plain storage. In the Pomperaug River, flood-plain storage is more important in attenuating floods; abandoned quarry ponds (O&G ponds) adjacent to the river provide substantial flood storage above specific river stages when flow from the river spills over the banks and fills the ponds. Discharge from the ponds also helps to sustain low flows in the Pomperaug River. Similarly, releases from the Bronson-Lockwood reservoir sustain flow in the Nonnewaug River and tend to offset the effect of groundwater withdrawals from a well field adjacent to the river during periods of natural low flow. The model indicated that under the current zoning, future development could reduce low flows by as much as 10 percent at the 99 percent exceedance level (99 percent of flows are greater than or equal to this flow), but would not substantially increase the highest flows. Simulation of projected and hypothetical development in the watershed shows, depending on how stormwater is managed, that between 10 and 20 percent effective impervious area in an HRU results in streamflow becoming dominated by the surface-runoff component. This shift from a groundwater-dominated system would likely result in substantial changes in water quality and instream habitat characteristics of the river. Base flow to streams in the Pomperaug River watershed is reduced by both increased impervious surface and increased groundwater withdrawals. For the watershed as a whole, increasing groundwater withdrawals have the potential for causing greater overall reductions in flow compared to increased development and impervious surfaces. Additionally, on the basis of groundwater-modeling simulations, the projected increase in development across the watershed and, to a lesser extent the increase in groundwater withdrawals, will increase the number of local losing reaches experiencing dry conditions and the duration of these dry periods. The location of the losing reaches tends to be in areas near the transition from the uplands to the valley bottoms that are filled with coarse glacial stratified deposits. The simulated increase in the duration and extent of localized dry stream reaches is most sensitive to local increase in impervious surface. Conversion of land from forest or developed land cover to pasture or agricultural land increases groundwater recharge and discharge to streams, while at the same time increasing overall streamflow (the opposite effect as increased impervious surface). These resu

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2017

Optimal hydrograph separation using a recursive digital filter constrained by chemical mass balance, with application to selected Chesapeake Bay watersheds

Quantitative estimates of base flow are necessary to address questions concerning the vulnerability and response of the Nation’s water supply to natural and human-induced change in environmental conditions. An objective of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Project is to determine how hydrologic systems are affected by watershed characteristics, including land use, land cover, water use, climate, and natural characteristics (geology, soil type, and topography). An important component of any hydrologic system is base flow, generally described as the part of streamflow that is sustained between precipitation events, fed to stream channels by delayed (usually subsurface) pathways, and more specifically as the volumetric discharge of water, estimated at a measurement site or gage at the watershed scale, which represents groundwater that discharges directly or indirectly to stream reaches and is then routed to the measurement point. Hydrograph separation using a recursive digital filter was applied to 225 sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The recursive digital filter was chosen for the following reasons: it is based in part on the assumption that groundwater acts as a linear reservoir, and so has a physical basis; it has only two adjustable parameters (alpha, obtained directly from recession analysis, and beta, the maximum value of the base-flow index that can be modeled by the filter), which can be determined objectively and with the same physical basis of groundwater reservoir linearity, or that can be optimized by applying a chemical-mass-balance constraint. Base-flow estimates from the recursive digital filter were compared with those from five other hydrograph-separation methods with respect to two metrics: the long-term average fraction of streamflow that is base flow, or base-flow index, and the fraction of days where streamflow is entirely base flow. There was generally good correlation between the methods, with some biased slightly high and some biased slightly low compared to the recursive digital filter. There were notable differences between the days at base flow estimated by the different methods, with the recursive digital filter having a smaller range of values. This was attributed to how the different methods determine cessation of quickflow (the part of streamflow which is not base flow). For 109 Chesapeake Bay watershed sites with available specific conductance data, the parameters of the filter were optimized using a chemical-mass-balance constraint and two different models for the time-dependence of base-flow specific conductance. Sixty-seven models were deemed acceptable and the results compared well with non-optimized results. There are a number of limitations to the optimal hydrograph-separation approach resulting from the assumptions implicit in the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the approach taken to impose chemical mass balance (including tracer choice). These limitations may be evidenced by poor model results; conversely, poor model fit may provide an indication that two-component separation does not adequately describe the hydrologic system’s runoff response. The results of this study may be used to address a number of questions regarding the role of groundwater in understanding past changes in stream-water quality and forecasting possible future changes, such as the timing and magnitude of land-use and management practice effects on stream and groundwater quality. Ongoing and future modeling efforts may benefit from the estimates of base flow as calibration targets or as a means to filter chemical data to model base-flow loads and trends. Ultimately, base-flow estimation might provide the basis for future work aimed at improving the ability to quantify groundwater discharge, not only at the scale of a gaged watershed, but at the scale of individual reaches as well.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2021

Climate change risks and adaptation options for Madagascar

Climate change poses an increasing threat to achieving development goals and is often considered in development plans and project designs. However, there have been challenges in the effective implementation of those plans, particularly in the sustained engagement of the communities to undertake adaptive actions, but also due to insufficient scientific information to inform management decisions. Madagascar is a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, population growth, and exploitation of natural resources. The country faces development and environmental challenges that may be intensified by climate change. The objective of this review is to provide a synthesis of the best-available information regarding climate change impacts on sectoral interests in Madagascar. To do this, we conducted a review of recent literature and conducted formal discussions with development agencies, non-government organizations (NGOs), and other stakeholders. Climate risks in Madagascar include increasing temperatures, reduced and more variable precipitation, more frequent droughts, more intense cyclones, and rising sea levels. We synthesized the observed and projected impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, human health, coastal ecosystems, fisheries, and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem services, and we discuss ongoing climate adaptation and mitigation activities. Because sectoral challenges and opportunities are linked, coordination among development organizations would be beneficial as they create new climate adaptation and mitigation initiatives.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2013

Ecosystem stressors in southern Nevada

Southern Nevada ecosystems and their associated resources are subject to a number of global and regional/local stressors that are affecting the sustainability of the region. Global stressors include elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations and associated changes in temperature and precipitation patterns and amount, solar radiation, and nutrient cycles (Smith and others 2009b). Global stressors are ubiquitous in nature and interact both directly and indirectly with regional or local stressors. Regional/local stressors in southern Nevada include: population growth and urbanization and associated increases in nitrogen deposition, energy development, water development, and recreation; increased effects of insects and disease; ongoing effects of livestock, wild horse and burro grazing; new and expanding invasive species; and altered fire regimes. This chapter provides background information on the stressors affecting southern Nevada's ecosystems that is needed to address Goal 1.0 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy, which is to restore, sustain, and enhance southern Nevada's ecosystems (Turner and others 2009). Human population growth and changes in land use strongly affect the type and magnitude of local/regional stressors. From 1960 to 2010, Nevada's growth rate was the highest in the nation (www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pdf). Clark County has experienced particularly high growth, with a population increase of greater than 40 percent since the 2000 census. Factors like land ownership, historic and current land use, proximity to human and energy developments, and desirability for recreation all influence the level of human-caused stress. The strong elevation/climate gradients and large difference in the environmental characteristics of southern Nevada ecosystems (fig. 1.2; Chapter 1) have a major influence on both patterns of land use and the dominant stressors for different ecosystem types. Shifts in land use related to population growth, urbanization, and energy development and largely focused in lower elevation ecosystems including sagebursh, blackbrush and shadscale, and Mojave Desert scrub. Water divisions influence riparian/aquatic ecosystems and springs, while groundwater pumping also has the potential to affect ecosystems that characterize lower valleys including Mojave Desert scrub. Recreational uses influence all ecosystems, and wild horse and burro use and livestock grazing affect all but alpine and subalpine ecosystems. Insects and disease, as well as invasive species are widespread stressors. Fire is limited to ecosystems with sufficient fuels to carry fire and is strongly influence by invasive species in lower elevation Mojave Desert scrub, blackbrush and shadscale, and sagebursh ecosystems. This chapter address aspects of several of the Goals and Sub-goals listed in the SNAP Science Research Strategy (table 1.3; Turner and others 2009). Altered fire regimes, invasive species, land use practices, and management actions are addressed in Goal 1 -- Sustain, Restore, and Enhance Southern Nevada's Ecosystems. The effects of these stressors on sensitive species and habitat are specifically addressed in Sub-goal 1.4 -- Sustain and Enhance Southern Nevada's Biotic Communities, to Preserve Biodiversity and Maintain Populations. Anthropogenic factors, such a recreation and urbanization, are referred to in Goal 2-- Provide for Responsible Use of Southern Nevada;s Lands in a Manner that Preserve Heritage Resources and Promotes an Understanding of Human Interaction with the Landscape.

Nevada↗
USGS2010

Groundwater sustainability strategies

Groundwater extraction has facilitated significant social development and economic growth, enhanced food security and alleviated drought in many farming regions. But groundwater development has also depressed water tables, degraded ecosystems and led to the deterioration of groundwater quality, as well as to conflict among water users. The effects are not evenly spread. In some areas of India, for example, groundwater depletion has preferentially affected the poor. Importantly, groundwater in some aquifers is renewed slowly, over decades to millennia, and coupled climate–aquifer models predict that the flux and/or timing of recharge to many aquifers will change under future climate scenarios. Here we argue that communities need to set multigenerational goals if groundwater is to be managed sustainably.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS1999

Geology for a changing world: Summary of USGS Circular 1172: A science strategy for the Geologic Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2000-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides the Nation with reliable and timely earth science information that is used to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; to manage energy, mineral, water, and biological resources; to enhance and protect the quality of life; and to contribute to wise economic development and a sustainable future. USGS Circular 1172, "Geology for a Changing World-- A Science Strategy for the Geologic Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2000-2010," presents a science strategy describing how the Geologic Division will carry out its share of this mission for the years 2000-2010. Acquisition of scientific knowledge through research, assessment, and insightful monitoring and the effective communication of this knowledge to planners and decisionmakers will allow the Geologic Division and its partners to assist the Nation in meeting a complex, challenging, and promising future.

Information Handout↗
USGS2022

Adaptive management framework and decision support tool for invasive annual bromes in seven Northern Great Plains National Park Service units

National Park Service (NPS) units in the northern Great Plains (NGP) were established to preserve and interpret the history of the United States, protect and showcase unusual geology and paleontology, and provide a home for vanishing large wildlife. A unifying feature among these national parks, monuments, and historic sites is northern mixed-grass prairie, which not only provides background scenery and habitat but is the foundation of many park missions. As recognition of the prairie’s importance to park fundamental resources and values has grown, so too has the realization that invasive plants threaten these values by reducing native species diversity, altering food webs, and marring the visitor experience. Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) and Japanese brome ( Bromus japonicus )—collectively referred to as “annual bromes”—are of particular concern because of their documented increase through time, and their association with lower native plant diversity, in NGP parks. A variety of grazing, herbicide-application, and prescribed-fire experiments have shown promising short-term results for controlling annual bromes in research-scale plots in the NGP, but it is unclear whether these management actions will be as effective at the larger spatial and longer temporal scales relevant to park management. When uncertainties about the effectiveness of different management actions cannot be answered with traditional research approaches in time to prevent resource degradation, yet recurrent management decisions must be made, an adaptive management approach may be appropriate. Thus, in 2017, we began to develop the ABAM—Annual Brome Adaptive Management—framework. The aim of this framework is to reduce uncertainties about methods for controlling annual bromes in seven NGP parks through a formal process of learning from the application of on-going management. A uniform framework across seven parks provides greater opportunities for reducing these uncertainties compared to a single park acting alone or to multiple parks using different adaptive management frameworks. This technical report details the development and expected implementation of the ABAM framework. After briefly introducing the issue (Section 1) and describing the context in which the framework was developed (Section 2), the report describes how a structured decision-making process was used to frame the problem, determine concrete objectives, and decide the alternative actions for achieving those objectives that the framework would be designed around (Section 3). Then the report describes the process used to develop the ABAM decision support system (Section 4). At the core of this system is the ABAM decision support tool, a Bayesian decision network built on nearly two decades of vegetation monitoring data from NGP parks, as well as current literature and ABAMspecific experiments. This tool, referred to as the ABAM model by its intended users, is built to work with the existing vegetation monitoring, prescribed fire, and invasive plant management programs that support the seven ABAM parks. In Section 5, the report describes how output from the ABAM model is produced and used in annual vegetation management decision making. It describes the ABAM R package (Baldwin et al. 2021) and an example R script that leads a user through an annual workflow using the model and the package. This workflow updates the model with information from new monitoring events following management actions of prescribed fire, herbicide application, or a combination thereof. With the updated model, data describing the current condition of vegetation in park management units, and current data for environmental factors included in the model (soil texture, slope, weather, and grazing), the user then runs the model to predict future vegetation conditions—and managers’ happiness with the outcome—in response to each of 10 management actions for each management unit in each park. These predictions inform managers’ decisions regarding locations and types of management actions to apply in the upcoming year. The ABAM framework is in its infancy, and the report concludes (Section 6) with a discussion of its longer-term viability. Successful adaptive management requires commitment for the long term, likely decades. Currently, the predictions of the decision support tool are not expected to be highly accurate, but they ideally will improve over time as more management actions are applied and their outcomes are captured by monitoring. We designed the ABAM decision support tool to work with the existing management and monitoring resources in ABAM parks to maximize the sustainability of the model’s use, but the ABAM framework requires more than the model. Because this application of an adaptive management framework supported by a quantitative decision support tool to guide vegetation management is unique within the NPS (to our knowledge), institutional knowledge and mechanisms for long-term implementation of the ABAM framework do not exist within the agency. Additionally, the ABAM model and the data that inform it could be improved in a variety of ways. Thus, this report concludes with a discussion of ways to both sustain and improve upon the work completed so far.

Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Guidelines for use of fishes in research

The 2004 and 2014 Guidelines were developed to provide a structure that advances appropriate attention toward valid experimental designs and procedures with aquatic animals while ensuring humane treatment of the experimental subjects. At a practical level, the Guidelines are intended to provide general recommendations on field and laboratory endeavors, such as sampling, holding, and handling fishes; to offer information on administrative matters, including regulations and permits; and to address typical ethical concerns, such as perceptions of pain or discomfort experienced by experimental subjects. These Guidelines must be recognized as guidelines . They are not intended to provide detailed instructions but rather to alert investigators to a broad array of topics and concerns to consider prior to initiating study. At a comprehensive level, the principles upon which these Guidelines are based are broadly applicable, and many of the described practices and approaches can be adapted to situations involving other aquatic animal species and conditions. Understanding the differences between fishes and other vertebrates, especially mammals, is critically important to conducting scientifically sound research with fishes. Disparities in life histories and mortality rates in fishes versus other vertebrates are critical in designing sustainable sampling levels in fish populations. The UFR Committee points out that (1) compared to mammalian populations, adult populations of many fish species persist despite very high natural mortality rates in juvenile stages by virtue of the fact that most species lay thousands or tens of thousands of eggs; (2) because of these mortality patterns, research on fishes, especially field research or research on early life stages, can involve, and often requires, much larger numbers of research subjects than does research on mammals; and (3) the animal handling and husbandry requirements for fishes are fundamentally different from those for mammals and other vertebrates, in general. Policies, regulations, and recommendations developed for research on mammals, birds, reptiles, or even amphibians are frequently inappropriate for research with fishes. The Guidelines also address some of the ethical concerns that motivate guidelines used for research with other vertebrates, while being mindful of the unique physiology and general nature of fishes. The Guidelines were developed for general use by investigators within the United States; therefore, the roles, responsibilities, and informational needs of Institutional Animal Care and Use Committees (IACUCs) were given specific attention. All United States institutions that use vertebrate animals for research, teaching, research training, and biological testing are required to create an IACUC to oversee and evaluate all aspects of the institution’s animal care and use program. Investigators from other nations who read this document may disregard specific references to U.S. state and federal laws and regulations, as their institutional infrastructure and processes may differ from those of an internal committee such as IACUCs. The principles described herein, however, are applicable to research on fishes regardless of geographic location. Investigators in other nations may benefit by modifying any of the specific provisions pertaining to the United States, thereby adopting guidelines consistent with the laws and regulations of their own government. The UFR Committee urges that the Guidelines be endorsed and adopted (adapted, where necessary) by those state and federal authorities with regulatory responsibilities for fishes, offices with federal oversight (e.g., National Institutes of Health, Office of Laboratory Animal Welfare; http://grants.nih.gov/grants/olaw/olaw.htm ) as well as by universities and other institutions and authorities using fishes and aquatic animals within their research and teaching programs.

Report↗
USGS2019

Mississippi river sediment diversions and coastal wetland sustainability: Synthesis of responses to freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs

Management and restoration of coastal wetlands require insight into how inundation, salinity, and the availability of mineral sediment and nutrients interact to influence ecosystem functions that control sustainability. The Mississippi River Delta, which ranks among the world's largest and most productive coastal wetland complexes, has experienced extensive deterioration over the last century due, in large part, to enhanced vulnerability to relative sea-level rise and lateral erosion caused by a combination of natural processes and anthropogenic modifications of hydrology. This land loss crisis has prompted the State of Louisiana to develop a comprehensive restoration plan that includes constructing and implementing a series of large-scale sediment diversions that will reconnect sediment- and nutrient-rich Mississippi River water to adjacent bays, estuaries, and wetlands. Sediment loading through diversions is predicted to enhance the long-term sustainability of coastal wetlands; however, the additive effects of increased inundation, abrubt changes in the salinity regime, and high nutrient loads on wetland plant growth and organic matter (SOM) decomposition rates, which help regulate accretion and elevation change, is uncertain. Therefore, this review attempts to synthesize existing information to inform predictions of the interactive effects of diversions on these drivers of coastal wetland sustainability. The data suggest that sediment deposition within an optimal elevation range will increase the overall productivity of existing wetlands where prolonged flooding does not counter this effect by limiting plant growth. A reduction in salinity may increase plant productivity and cause vegetation shifts to less salt tolerant species, but seasonal swings in salinity may have unforeseen consequences. Nutrient-loading is predicted to lead to greater aboveground productivity, which, in turn, can facilitate additional sediment trapping; however, belowground productivity may decline, particularly in areas where sediment deposition is limited. In areas experiencing net deposition, nutrient-enrichment is predicted to enhance belowground growth into new sediment and contribute to positive effects on soil organic matter accumulation, accretion, and elevation change. Thus, we contend that sediment input is essential for limiting the negative effects of flooding and nutrient-enrichment on wetland processes. These conclusions are generally supported by the biophysical feedbacks occurring in existing prograding deltas of the Mississippi River Delta complex.

Louisiana↗
USGS2009

Setting the stage for a sustainable Pacific salmon fisheries strategy

Salmon and steelhead Oncorhynchus spp., have been keystone species for ecosystems and human cultures of the North American Pacific coast for cons. Yet, in the past century, many populations have been greatly diminished and some are now extinct-the result of a combination of factors, including habitat loss and degradation, overfishing, natural variability in salmon production, negative effects of artificial propagation, and weaknesses in institutional and regulatory structures. We argue that a major shift is required, from the egocentric environmental approach (wherein each part of the ecosystem is managed as a unit) to the ecocentric ecosystem approach (wherein all parts are integrated for management). A management framework is proposed that contains-for each management unit such as a watershed-four elements: management goals; management objectives, ecosystem indicators; and a coordinated action plan. We also describe the Sustainable Fisheries Strategy, a consultative process for developing an ecosystem-based approach toward achieving sustainable Pacific salmon and steelhead populations and fisheries. This book is one of three important underpinnings of the Strategy; the other two are the Strategy itself and a manual being developed to guide community-based programs embracing the principles of sustainable fisheries. This book contains important historical perspectives as well as numerous innovative ideas for moving toward ecosystem-oriented, sustainable management of Pacific salmon and steelhead.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Commercial possibilities for stranded conventional gas from Alaska's North Slope

Stranded gas resources are defined for this study as gas resources in discrete accumulations that are not currently commercially producible, or producible at full potential, for either physical or economic reasons. Approximately 35 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of stranded gas was identified on Alaska’s North Slope. The commercialization of this resource requires facilities to transport gas to markets where sales revenue will be sufficient to offset the cost of constructing and operating a gas delivery system. With the advent of the shale gas revolution, plans for a gas pipeline to the conterminous US have been shelved (at least temporarily) and the State and resource owners are considering a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project that targets Asian markets. This paper focuses on competitive conditions for Asian gas import markets by estimating delivered costs of competing supplies from central Asia, Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia in the context of a range of import gas demand projections for the period from 2020 to 2040. These suppliers’ costs are based on the cost of developing, producing, and delivering to markets tranches of the nearly 600 TCF of recoverable gas from their own conventional stranded gas fields. The results of these analyses imply that Alaska’s gas exports to Asia will likely encounter substantial competitive challenges. The sustainability of Asia’s oil-indexed LNG pricing is also discussed in light of a potentially intense level of competition.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Using state-and-transition modeling to account for imperfect detection in invasive species management

Buffelgrass, a highly competitive and flammable African bunchgrass, is spreading rapidly across both urban and natural areas in the Sonoran Desert of southern and central Arizona. Damages include increased fire risk, losses in biodiversity, and diminished revenues and quality of life. Feasibility of sustained and successful mitigation will depend heavily on rates of spread, treatment capacity, and cost–benefit analysis. We created a decision support model for the wildland–urban interface north of Tucson, AZ, using a spatial state-and-transition simulation modeling framework, the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses. We addressed the issues of undetected invasions, identifying potentially suitable habitat and calibrating spread rates, while answering questions about how to allocate resources among inventory, treatment, and maintenance. Inputs to the model include a state-and-transition simulation model to describe the succession and control of buffelgrass, a habitat suitability model, management planning zones, spread vectors, estimated dispersal kernels for buffelgrass, and maps of current distribution. Our spatial simulations showed that without treatment, buffelgrass infestations that started with as little as 80 ha (198 ac) could grow to more than 6,000 ha by the year 2060. In contrast, applying unlimited management resources could limit 2060 infestation levels to approximately 50 ha. The application of sufficient resources toward inventory is important because undetected patches of buffelgrass will tend to grow exponentially. In our simulations, areas affected by buffelgrass may increase substantially over the next 50 yr, but a large, upfront investment in buffelgrass control could reduce the infested area and overall management costs.

Arizona↗
USGS2011

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2017

Groundwater discharge to the Mississippi River and groundwater balances for the Interstate 94 Corridor surficial aquifer, Clearwater to Elk River, Minnesota, 2012–14

The Interstate 94 Corridor has been identified as 1 of 16 Minnesota groundwater areas of concern because of its limited available groundwater resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed six seasonal and annual groundwater balances for parts of the Interstate 94 Corridor surficial aquifer to better understand its long-term (next several decades) sustainability. A high-precision Mississippi River groundwater discharge measurement of 5.23 cubic feet per second per mile was completed at low-flow conditions to better inform these groundwater balances. The recharge calculation methods RISE program and Soil-Water-Balance model were used to inform the groundwater balances. For the RISE-derived recharge estimates, the range was from 3.30 to 11.91 inches per year; for the SWB-derived recharge estimates, the range was from 5.23 to 17.06 inches per year. Calculated groundwater discharges ranged from 1.45 to 5.06 cubic feet per second per mile, a ratio of 27.7 to 96.4 percent of the measured groundwater discharge. Ratios of groundwater pumping to total recharge ranged from 8.6 to 97.2 percent, with the longer-term groundwater balances ranging from 12.9 to 19 percent. Overall, this study focused on the surficial aquifer system and its interactions with the Mississippi River. During the study period (October 1, 2012, through November 30, 2014), six synoptic measurements, along with continuous groundwater hydrographs, rainfall records, and a compilation of the pertinent irrigation data, establishes the framework for future groundwater modeling efforts.

Minnesota↗
USGS2014

Elk monitoring in Lewis and Clark National Historical Park: 2008-2012 synthesis report

Maintaining elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) herds that frequent Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (NHP) is central to the park’s purpose of preserving the historic, cultural, scenic, and natural resources associated with the winter encampment of the Lewis and Clark expedition. Elk were critically important to the Lewis and Clark expedition in providing food and hides that sustained the expedition during the winter of 1805-06 and supplied them for their return east during 1806. Today, elk remain a key component of interpreting the Lewis and Clark story to over 200,000 park visitors each year at the Fort Clatsop visitor center. In 2008, the US Geological Survey (USGS) began collaborating with Lewis and Clark NHP and the NPS North Coast and Cascades Network to develop a protocol for monitoring long-term changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of elk use within and adjacent to Lewis and Clark NHP (Griffin et al. 2011). Specific objectives of the monitoring program were to measure trends in (1) relative use of the Fort Clatsop unit by elk during winter; (2) the proportion of areas where elk sign is present in the Fort Clatsop unit in winter; and (3) the frequency of elk sightings from roads in and around the Fort Clatsop unit. This report synthesizes the results of the first four years of monitoring elk distribution and use in Lewis and Clark NHP from 2008-2012. We also present data from FY2012 (Appendix 1), in lieu of an annual report for that year. We used fecal pellet group surveys as the cornerstone for monitoring trends in both relative use of the Fort Clatsop Unit by elk and the proportion of areas where elk sign was present at the end of winter. We estimated pellet group density based on data collected from a network of fecal pellet plots distributed systematically throughout the unit. We developed a double observer sampling scheme that enabled us to estimate detection biases and improve the accuracy of pellet group density estimates. We computed the estimated detection probability for any pellet group observed; this probability was a function of the pellet group size and stage of decay, as well as lighting and vegetation conditions, and the number of observers (one or two) searching for pellets in that subplot. We then used these estimated detection probabilities to adjust the raw counts of the detected pellet groups to account for groups that likely went undetected under similar pellet and environmental conditions (each observed pellet group was weighted by the inverse of its estimated detection probability). We also used results from the late winter fecal pellet surveys to quantify the proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO), which was based on the presence of fecal pellet groups and estimation of detection biases (i.e., accounting for pellet groups that likely went undetected by both observers). In this synthesis, we report temporal trends in both pellet group density and PAO from 2008-2012, based on weighted linear regression analyses as well as spatial variation of pellet group densities over time. We completed late winter fecal pellet surveys at 61-66 plots annually, depending on yearly variation in access. We cleared fecal pellets at survey points in late October / early November each year and returned in late February / early March to count pellet groups left by elk over the winter. The estimated probability that a pellet group was detected by any one observer during late winter was affected most by the pellet group size and was less affected by decay class and lighting conditions. Per-observer detection probabilities ranged from as low as ~10-15% for single pellets to ~85-90% for pellet groups with 50 pellets. Average pellet group density in the Fort Clatsop unit ranged annually from 0.58 (+/- 1.43 standard error [SE]) to 0.93 (+/- 2.25 SE) pellet groups per 3-m radius subplot. Pellet group density declined over time, at approximately 8.8% per year (+/- 2.5% SE), but that slope was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.16). Following correction for detection biases, the proportion of surveyed points used by elk (i.e., PAO) ranged from 0.44 (+/- 0.07 SE) to 0.53 (+/- 0.07 SE) during the 4 winters. The estimated proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO) declined at a rate of 2.6% per year (+/- 1.2% per year SE), but that trend also was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.17). Statistical significance of a measure’s trend depends on both the magnitude (i.e., slope) of the observed trend and the number of years the trend continues in the same increasing or decreasing direction. Through simulation modeling we determined how many additional years of surveys would be required to reveal a statistically significant trend, based on the same trends in pellet group density and PAO, and associated variation, observed from 2009-2012. Assuming the same trends persist in the future, simulations indicated that there is a 70% probability that a statistically significant trend would be detected after two more years of conducting pellet group surveys. Relative use by elk during winter, as indexed by elk pellet group density, was generally greatest in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit in or near the large freshwater marsh at the mouth of Colewort Creek and adjacent upland areas. Pellet group density was also higher than average in the north-central forested area, not far from a privately-owned pasture north of the park boundary. This spatial pattern in pellet group densities across the Fort Clatsop unit was consistent across all four years, although specific pellet group densities varied from year to year. Pellet group density declined significantly over time at two points in the southeast of the Fort Clatsop unit, even though pellet group density at those points remained higher than the unit average. Pellet group density increased significantly over time at one point in the north-central region, and at one point in the south-central region of the unit, indicating a slight shift in the distribution of elk use within the Fort Clatsop Unit over the four years. As an index of visitors’ opportunities to see elk in and around the Fort Clatsop Unit, we conducted replicated roadside elk surveys 3-5 times monthly during February, April, June, August, October and December 2008-2012. During each morning of survey, we searched for elk along four routes that totaled 32 km. We examined bimonthly trends in the numbers of elk groups seen, the total number of elk seen, and the observed composition ratios for those six months of the year. The average number of elk groups seen per survey ranged from 0.75 (+/- 0.32 SE) during February to a peak of 1.95 (+/- 0.36 SE) during June. Despite this seasonal variation in numbers of elk groups seen, the average total number of elk seen per morning was less variable. The average ratios of antlered elk to antlerless adult elk (i.e., bulls:cows) and calves to antlerless adult elk (i.e. calves:cows) varied seasonally, with the highest of both average ratios observed in August. We detected no significant trends in the average number of elk groups and total numbers of elk seen per survey from 2008-2012. Similarly, ratios of calves and antlered elk per antlerless elk did not differ over time. Elk groups were frequently seen from January to August in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit, in the vicinity of Colewort Creek. Outside of NPS lands, we observed elk most frequently in open areas near the Astoria regional airport, in the pastures and forests immediately north of the Fort Clatsop unit and, prior to the construction of a residential development, in a pasture northwest of the Fort Clatsop unit. Elk monitoring at Lewis and Clark NHP is still in its initial years and additional monitoring will be required to verify trends that appear to be emerging. For example, the initial monitoring suggested incipient declining trends in both pellet group density and proportion of plots with pellets present, as well as, potentially, a small shift in elk distribution away from a new trail that was recently constructed in the southeast portion of the Fort Clatsop unit. Continued monitoring will aid in determining whether this local change in distribution persists (or, alternatively, resulted from short-term random variation), and whether there will be any positive or negative effect in the northern portion of the unit where a new trail has been constructed. High variability in road counts prevented our ability to find any clear trend in numbers or composition of elk observed in and near Fort Clatsop, but changes in the patterns of observations of elk from roadways suggest that residential development outside the park has reduced the available habitat for elk in some of the areas surveyed, and may have affected spatial use patterns of elk adjacent to some areas of the park. In addition to monitoring future effects of land use changes outside the park, continued monitoring may also prove useful for assessing elk responses to natural succession in forests disturbed by windthrow in December 2007 and to NPS vegetation management activities such as variable density thinning in the forest, trail development, and restoration at Otter Point tidal area and Colewort Creek Slough.

Oregon;Washington↗