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The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

The Earth's climate warmed steadily during the 20th century, and mean annual air temperatures are estimated to have increased by 0.6°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Although many cycles of warming and cooling have occurred in the past, the most recent warming period is unique in its rate and magnitude of change (Siegenthaler and others, 2005) and in its association with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007). The climate in the western United States warmed in concert with the global trend but at an accelerated rate (+0.8°C during the 20th century; Saunders and others, 2008). The region could also prove especially sensitive to future changes because the relatively small human population is growing rapidly, as are demands on limited water supplies. Regional hydrological patterns are dominated by seasonal snow accumulation at upper elevations. Most of the region is relatively dry, and both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are strongly constrained b y water availability (Barnett and others, 2008; Brown and others, 2008). Stream environments are dynamic and climatically extreme, and salmonid fishes are the dominant elements of the native biodiversity (McPhail and Lindsey, 1986; Waples and others, 2008). Salmonids have broad economic and ecologic importance, but a century of intensive water resource development, nonnative fish stocking, and land use has significantly reduced many populations and several taxa are now protected under the Endangered Species Act (Thurow and others, 1997; Trotter, 2008). Because salmonids require relatively pristine, cold water environments and are often isolated in headwater habitats, members of this group may be especially vulnerable to the effects of a warming climate (Keleher and Rahel, 1996; Rieman and others, 2007; Williams and others, 2009). Warming during the 20th century drove a series of environmental trends that have profound implications for many aspects of salmonid habitat, including disturbance regimes such as wildfire, and unfavorable changes to thermal and hydrologic properties of aquatic systems. Warmer air temperatures have been associated with decreased winter snow accumulations, have accelerated snowmelt, and have advanced the timing of peak runoff by several days to weeks across most of western North America (Stewart and others, 2005; Barnett and others, 2008). Less snow and earlier runoff decrease aquifer recharge, make less water available for groundwater inputs to streams, and are contributing to widespread decreases in summer low flows (Stewart and others, 2005; Rood and others, 2008; Luce and Holden 2009). Interannual variability in stream flow is increasing, as is the persistence of multi-year extreme conditions (McCabe and others, 2004; Pagano and Garen 2005). In many areas of western North America, flood risks have increased in association with warmer temperatures during the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Streams where midwinter temperatures are near freezing have proven especially sensitive to increased flooding because of associated transitional hydrological patterns (mixtures of rainfall and snowmelt) and propensity for occasional rain-on-snow events to rapidly melt winter snowpack and generate large floods (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Stream temperatures in many areas are increasing (Peterson and Kitchell, 2001; Morrison and others, 2002; Bartholow, 2005; Kaushal and others, 2010), due to both air temperature increases and reduced summer flows that make streams more sensitive to warmer air temperatures (Isaak and others, 2010). In recent decades, wildfires have become more common across much of the western United States during periods of more frequent droughts (Westerling and others, 2006; Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007), and local stream temperature can increase in postfire environments (Gresswell, 1999; Dunham and others, 2007). Fire-related temperature increase within streams is commonly a transient phenomenon, lasting only until riparian vegetation has recovered (Gresswell, 1999); however, ongoing climate change could preclude recovery to higher stature, prefire vegetation types in some areas (McKenzie and others, 2004; van Mantgem and Stephenson, 2007), resulting in a loss of critical riparian shading. Additionally, when wildfires occur in steep mountain topographies, the vegetation that stabilize s soils on hillslopes is often killed and landslides become more prevalent (Gresswell, 1999). Landslides int o stream channels form debris flows composed of sediment slurries and dead trees that can scour channels to bedrock and further exacerbate stream heating, delay recovery of riparian areas, or extirpate fish populations (Gresswell, 1999; May and Gresswell, 2003; Dunham and others, 2007). Changes in stream environments will shift habitat distributions, sometimes unpredictably, in both time and space for many salmonid fishes. Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic ecosystem health because distribution, reproduction, fitness, and survival of ectothermic organisms are inextricably linked to the thermal regime of the environment. Historically, research has focused on defining lethal thermal limits of salmonids (Eaton and others, 1995; Selong and others, 2001; Todd and others, 2008); however, water temperature is known to be important in biological processes at a variety of spatial scales and levels of biological organization (Rahel and Olden, 2008; McCullough and others, 2009). For instance, trout are affected directly by water temperature through feeding, metabolism, and growth rates, and indirectly by factors such as prey availability and species interactions (Wehrly and others, 2007; Rahel and Olden, 2008). Where cold water temperatures currently limit habitat suitability and distributions of some species (for example, at the highest and most northerly distributional extents; Nakano and others, 1996; Coleman and Fausch, 2007), a warming climate may gradually increase the quality and extent of suitable habitat. Over time, previously constrained populations are expected to expand into these new habitats and increase in number. Some evidence suggests this may already be happening in Alaska, where streams in recently deglaciated areas are being colonized by emigrants from nearby salmon and char populations (Milner and others, 2000). Unfortunately, many of the sensitive salmonid species that are often the focus of western managers are unlikely to benefit from future water temperature increases. Warmer stream temperatures will facilitate invasion by nonnative species that are broadly established in downstream areas into upstream areas where they will compete with native species (Rieman and others, 2006; Rahel and Olden, 2008; Fausch and others, 2009). In other cases, warmer stream temperatures will render thermally suitable habitats unsuitable in downstream areas and effect net losses of habitat because upstream distributions are often constrained by streams that are too small or steep (Hari and others, 2006; Isaak and others, 2010). Both scenarios are realistic for fish species like bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) (Rieman and others, 2006; Rieman and others, 2007), the various subspecies of cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) (Williams and others, 2009), Gila trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae gilae ) (Kennedy and others, 2008), and Apache trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae apache ) (Rinne and Minckley, 1985; Carmichael and others, 1993). As native species are increasingly confined to smaller and more isolated habitats by a gradually warming climate, the effects of wildfires (whether related to lethal changes in water quality during a fire, channel debris flows, or chronic postfire warming ) could have greater proportional effects on remaining habitats (for example, Brown and others, 2001; Rieman and others, 2007). If these changes were accompanied by additional hydrologic alterations associated with changes to the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of discharge patterns (Jager and others, 1999; Henderson and others, 2000), populations may begin to lose some of their historic resilience and become ever more susceptible to local extirpations. As dramatic and extensive as climatic and environmental trends are for salmonid habitats, global climate models (GCMs) project that many of these trends will continue and even accelerate until at least the middle of the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Current projections suggest mean annual air temperatures will increase by an additional 1–3°C, and early indications are that climate trajectory is at the higher end of this range (Pittock, 2006; Raupach and others, 2007). Although predicted changes vary considerably, even the most conservative estimates suggest a warming rate that will be twice that observed during the 20th century. Projections for the midcentury are most certainly due to the effects of greenhouse gases already emitted or predicted in the short term, uncertainties of the effects of longer-term greenhouse gas emissions, short-term climate cycles, and process errors associated with climate models (Cox and Stephenson, 2007). Projections of changes in total precipitation are less certain than those for air temperatures, but most GCMs project relatively small changes in the Northwest, with the exception of slightly drier summer periods (Mote and others, 2008; Karl and others, 2009). In the Southwest, however, significant decreases (such as 15–30 percent ) are projected during most periods of the year, and this area is one of the few for which Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) precipitation projections have a high level of certainty (Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007; Karl and others, 2009). Clearly, managers of native salmonids in the wester n United States should consider adjusting management strategies to accommodate a warmer and possibly drier future (Williams and others, 2009). Tools are needed to forecast where important changes may occur and how conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this Open-File Report, we document our initial efforts in this regard for 10 species and subspecies of inland trout and Montana Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) across the western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

Sustainable wetland management and support of ecosystem services

This article is a follow-up on a previous piece in the National Wetlands Newsletter in which we outlined problems associated with a static, local approach to wetland management versus an alternative that proposes a temporal and geomorphic approach (Euliss et al. 2009). We extend that concept by drawing on companion papers recently published in the journal Wetlands (Euliss et al. 2008, Smith et al. 2008). Here we highlight reasons for the failure of many managed wetlands to provide a suite of ecosystem services (e.g., carbon storage, diodiversity, ground-water recharge, contaminant filtering, floodwater storage). Our principal theme is that wetland management is best approached by giving consideration to the hydrogeomorphic processes that maintain productive ecosystems and by removing physical and social impediments to those processes. Traditional management actions are often oriented toward maintaining static conditions in wetlands without considering the temporal cycles that wetlands need to undergo or achieve productivity for specific groups of wildlife, such as waterfowl. Possibly more often, a manager's ability to influence hydrogeomorphic processes is restricted by activities in surrounding watersheds. These could be dams, for example, which do not allow management of flood-pulse processes essential to productivity of riparian systems. In most cases, sediments and nutrients associated with land use in contributing watersheds complicate management of wetlands for a suite of services, including wildlife. Economic or policy forces far-removed from a wetland often interact to prevent occurrence of basic ecosystem processes. Our message is consistent with recommendation of supply-side sustainability of Allen et al. (2002) in which ecosystems are managed "for the system that produces outputs rather than the outputs themselves."

National Wetlands Newsletter↗

Non-native animals on public lands

Non-native plants and animals have become part of our surroundings, in cities, agricultural areas, and wildlands. While there are many beneficial purposes for non-native animals, such as for food and sport hunting and as agricultural animals, the introduction of some has had major negative economic consequences (Palmer 1899), and adverse effects on native wildlife, plants, and habitats. The British ecologist Charles Elton, in a major review of introduced species, described the increasing number of invasions as constituting "one of the great historical convulsions in the world's flora and fauna" (Elton 1958, p. 31). Non-native species are significant problems on large areas of state and federal public lands, and areas set aside to protect native plant and animal communities are not immune to such harm. Science and conservation journals have devoted entire issues to the threats posed by non-native plants and animals in nature reserves (e.g., Usher et al. 1988). In a compilation of threats to U.S. national parks, non-native plants and animals were the most often reported threat, and were reported by the most areas; feral cats ( Felis catus ), feral dogs ( Canis familiaris ), and wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) were the non-native animals cited most often (NPCA 1977). Non-native species present serious threats, but at the same time, coordinated efforts on public lands offer the best possibility for controlling some harmful non-native species, and protecting both native plant and animal communities and human interests and needs. We compiled information on non-native animals on public and private land-management areas by conducting a mail survey to assess their occurrence and management status in land-management areas. Survey results represent contributions from 937 national parks, national forests, national wildlife refuges, Bureau of Land Management field areas, and state and private land-management areas. The results reflect those species that land managers considered of greatest concern, and their general distribution on public lands. Non-native invertebrate animals, particularly forest insects and agricultural pests, cause severe economic and environmental damage as well (OTA 1993), but were not the focus of this survey.

Book chapter↗

Mapping cropland fallow areas in myanmar to scale up sustainable intensification of pulse crops in the farming system

Cropland fallows are the next best-bet for intensification and extensification, leading to increased food production and adding to the nutritional basket. The agronomical suitability of these lands can decide the extent of usage of these lands. Myanmar’s agricultural land (over 13.8 Mha) has the potential to expand by another 50% into additional fallow areas. These areas may be used to grow short-duration pulses, which are economically important and nutritionally rich, and constitute the diets of millions of people as well as provide an important source of livestock feed throughout Asia. Intensifying rice fallows will not only improve the productivity of the land but also increase the income of the smallholder farmers. The enhanced cultivation of pulses will help improve nutritional security in Myanmar and also help conserve natural resources and reduce environmental degradation. The objectives of this study was to use remote sensing methods to identify croplands in Myanmar and cropland fallow areas in two important agro-ecological regions, delta and coastal region and the dry zone. The study used moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-m, 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maximum value composite (MVC), and land surface water index (LSWI) for one 1 year (1 June 2012–31 May 2013) along with seasonal field-plot level information and spectral matching techniques to derive croplands versus cropland fallows for each of the three seasons: the monsoon period between June and October; winter period between November and February; and summer period between March and May. The study showed that Myanmar had total net cropland area (TNCA) of 13.8 Mha. Cropland fallows during the monsoon season account for a meagre 2.4% of TNCA. However, in the winter season, 56.5% of TNCA (or 7.8 Mha) were classified as cropland fallows and during the summer season, 82.7% of TNCA (11.4 Mha) were cropland fallows. The producer’s accuracy of the cropland fallow class varied between 92 and 98% (errors of omission of 2 to 8%) and user’s accuracy varied between 82 and 92% (errors of commission of 8 to 18%) for winter and summer, respectively. Overall, the study estimated 19.2 Mha cropland fallows from the two major seasons (winter and summer). Out of this, 10.08 Mha has sufficient moisture (either from rainfall or stored soil water content) to grow short-season pulse crops. This potential with an estimated income of US\$ 300 per hectare, if exploited sustainably, is estimated to bring an additional net income of about US\$ 1.5 billion to Myanmar per year if at least half (5.04 Mha) of the total cropland fallows (10.08 Mha) is covered with short season pulses.

GIScience and Remote Sensing↗

Management of conservation reserve program grasslands to meet wildlife habitat objectives

Numerous studies document environmental and social benefits of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). This report offers a synopsis of findings regarding effects of establishing CRP conservation practices on the quality and distribution of wildlife habitat in agricultural landscapes. On individual farms, year-round provision of wildlife habitat by the CRP may appear relatively insignificant. However, considered from multi-farm to National scales, such improvements in habitat and wildlife response have proven to be extensive and profound. Because CRP acres historically have been dominated by plantings of introduced and native grasses, this report focuses on issues pertaining to wildlife response to grass-dominated conservation practices. While the majority of CRP acres have been concentrated largely in the Great Plains and Corn Belt regions, 47 states (and Puerto Rico) have participated, resulting in measurable environmental benefits throughout the United States. Numerous investigations of habitat use by a wide range of wildlife species reveal that periodic management of CRP lands can enhance benefits through and beyond a typical 10 year general CRP contract. Over its 28-year existence, the CRP has evolved into an effective integration of conservation and agricultural policies targeting fragile and environmentally-valuable lands. Landowners with fields enrolled in the CRP often are the first to observe improvement in the landscape, greater numbers and kinds of wildlife, cleaner water and air, less erosion, and they have the satisfaction of seeing fragile lands serve better purposes. There is persistent concern that improvement seen in wildlife habitat and other environmental profits delivered by the CRP are ephemeral and last only as long as funding supports the existence of the program and its vegetative cover is properly managed. An involved American population will continue to expect governmental policies to enhance long-term protection of natural resources and public health. Recent investigations furnish evidence that the collective economic value of environmental benefits delivered by the CRP likely exceed program costs. The mounting significance placed on environmentally-responsible land management is based in part on public recognition that social, aesthetic, and recreational values enhance the traditional uses of agricultural land.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Insights from long-term ungrazed and grazed watersheds in a salt desert Colorado Plateau ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems cover over 41% of the earth’s land surface, and living within these important ecosystems are approximately 2 billion people, a large proportion of whom are subsistence agropastoralists. Improper grazing in drylands can negatively impact ecosystem productivity, soil conservation, hydrologic processes, downstream water quantity and quality, and ultimately human health and economic well-being. Concerns regarding the degraded state of western US rangelands in the 1950s resulted in an interagency committee to study the effects of land use on runoff and erosion processes. In 1953, a federal research group established four paired watersheds in western Colorado to study the interaction of grazing by domestic livestock, runoff, and sediment yield. Exclusion of livestock from half of the watersheds dramatically reduced runoff and sediment yield after the first 10 yr—primarily due to changes in ground cover but not vegetation. Here, we report results of repeated soils and vegetation assessments of the experimental watersheds after more than 50 yr of grazing exclusion. Results show that many of the differences in soil conditions between grazed and ungrazed watersheds observed in the 1950s and 1960s were still present in 2004, despite reduced numbers of livestock: few differences in vegetation cover but large differences in biological soil crusts, soil stability, soil compaction, and soil biogeochemistry. There were differences among soil types in response to grazing history, especially soil lichen cover and soil organic matter, nitrogen, and sodium. Comparisons of ground cover measured in 2004 with those measured in 1953, 1966, and 1972 suggest much of the differences between grazed and ungrazed watersheds likely were driven by high sheep numbers during droughts in the 1950s. Persistence of these differences, despite large reductions in stocking rates , suggest the combination of overgrazing and drought may have pushed these salt desert ecosystems into a persistent, degraded ecological state.

Salt Desert Colorado Plateau Ecosystem↗

U.S. Geological Survey Chesapeake science strategy, 2015-2025—Informing ecosystem management of America’s largest estuary

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the critical role of providing scientific information to improve the understanding and management of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The USGS works with Federal, State, and academic science partners to provide research and monitoring, and communicate results of these activities to enhance ecosystem management for both the Chesapeake and other National ecosystems. The USGS Chesapeake Science Strategy was prepared to guide science activities to address the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement (2014–2025), to support the Department of the Interior (DOI) involvement in the Bay restoration efforts, and align with the USGS Mission Area (MA) Science strategies. The Chesapeake Bay is our Nation’s largest estuary, and provides critical goods and services to the people, fish, and wildlife that use the 64,000-square-mile watershed. The Chesapeake Bay watershed contains over 3,600 species of fish, wildlife, and plants and provides spawning grounds for many ecologically and economically important species including striped bass and blue crabs. The Bay watershed lies in the heart of the Atlantic Flyway and has 29 species of waterfowl, about 1 million of which winter in the region. The size of the Chesapeake seafood harvest is third in the Nation, only behind the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Along with agricultural production, tourism, and recreation, the estimated economic value of the services from the Chesapeake Bay watershed is about $100 billion annually. However, the health of the Bay ecosystem began to decline at the beginning of the 20th century due to overfishing and increasing human population and associated land change. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is the Federal-State cooperative effort that started in 1983 to restore the Bay and watershed. Given the ecological and economic importance of the Chesapeake ecosystem, President Obama issued an Executive Order (EO) in 2009 for increased Federal leadership in the CBP to enhance the pace of restoration, and the supporting strategy was released in 2010. The EO directed the Federal Government, including the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), represented by the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS), and the USGS, to expand its efforts and increase leadership to restore the Bay and its watershed. The USGS and other Federal agencies expanded their activities in 2011 to meet the President’s Chesapeake EO. Since the EO was released, there have been several important changes in the USGS, DOI, and the CBP including: (1) the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, (2) increased DOI leadership in the CBP, and (3) the release of the USGS MA science strategies. The EO strategy served as a foundation for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement that was signed in 2014 by the CBP Partners, and has goals and outcomes to be met by 2025. The USGS developed the Chesapeake Science Strategy to guide our activities to address the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, DOI leadership in the CBP, and USGS MA strategies. Improving the understanding of fish and wildlife population and health, and the factors affecting their condition is the emphasis of the Strategy. The science focuses on documenting the critical ecosystem connections in the Chesapeake, and providing implications to enhance decision making for restoration and conservation activities. The revised Strategy has four themes that address 7 of the 10 goals in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement: Enhance science to support restoration, and conservation of fish, wildlife, and critical habitats. Characterize and explain changes in water quality, and its effect on freshwater and estuarine ecosystems. Assess and forecast effects of climate and land change on ecosystem conditions. Synthesize and provide information to support ecosystem management. The structure and function of biological communities of the Bay and its watershed are extremely complex and are affected by a variety of stressors and conditions. To better define the issues being addressed, the USGS has developed cross-cutting questions that define some of the most important scientific challenges where multiple disciplines and collaborators are needed to address an issue. The initial questions include: How do land and climate changes affect freshwater fish communities, health, and habitats? What are the relations among land use, water quality, contaminants, and the health of fish and wildlife? How are coastal wetlands and their carrying capacity for waterbirds affected by changing climate and land use? How is the water quality of rivers and estuaries responding to restoration actions, and changing land use? What are some of the best opportunities for management actions to benefit multiple restoration outcomes?

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

Land-use effects on erosion, sediment yields, and reservoir sedimentation: A case study in the Lago Loiza Basin, Puerto Rico

Lago Loíza impounded in 1953 to supply San Juan, Puerto Rico, with drinking water; by 1994, it had lost 47% of its capacity. To characterize sedimentation in Lago Loíza, a study combining land-use history, hillslope erosion rates, and subbasin sediment yields was conducted. Sedimentation rates during the early part of the reservoir’s operation (1953– 1963) were slightly higher than the rates during 1964–1990. In the early history of the reservoir, cropland comprised 48% of the basin and erosion rates were high. Following economic shifts during the 1960s, cropland was abandoned and replaced by forest, which increased from 7.6% in 1950 to 20.6% in 1987. These land-use changes follow a pattern similar to the northeastern United States. Population in the Lago Loíza Basin increased 77% from 1950 to 1990, and housing units increased 194%. Sheetwash erosion measured from 1991 to 1993 showed construction sites had the highest sediment concentration (61,400 ppm), followed by cropland (47,400 ppm), pasture (3510 ppm), and forest (2050 ppm). This study illustrates how a variety of tools and approaches can be used to understand the complex interaction between land use, upland erosion, fluvial sediment transport and storage, and reservoir sedimentation.

Puerto Rico↗

Rates, trends, causes, and consequences of urban land-use change in the United States

Over the past 200 years, changes to the Nation's urban areas have been dramatic. Changes that have occurred relate both to the location of urban centers, as well as to the spatial extent of land dedicated to urban uses. Urban areas at the beginning of the 19th century were located primarily along major rivers or bodies of water, as waterways provided the most efficient means for transporting goods and people. As railroads became prominent, urban areas were able to expand or develop away from the water's edge. Geographic features such as steep slopes, wetlands, and lack of freshwater impeded settlement. In 1902, the National Reclamation Act was passed and with it came funding for the construction of water storage and transportation systems. This encouraged urban expansion in the arid west. After World War II, the Nation's urban areas continued to expand outward away from the city center as populations migrated to the margins of urban areas, where land was less expensive and the environment was less polluted. In 1956, the Federal Highway Act and the building of Interstate highways further facilitated urban expansion across the Unite States. Rural towns, small industrial centers, and farmland were engulfed by expanding urban centers. Over the past 200 years, numerous social, cultural, economic, and political incentives have encouraged urban expansion. In the 1800s, the industrial revolution influenced where people lived and worked. Many people shifted from agricultural production in rural areas to factory work in urban centers. Advances in transportation systems, such as rail transport in the 19th and early 20th centuries, followed by the mass production of the automobile and convenient air travel, facilitated a mobile society and a national economy. Economic growth and a population boom after World War II spurred increased suburbanization-the shifting of residential areas to the outlying section of a city or to a separate municipality-on the fringe of urban areas. Other economic and political incentives that shaped the urban environment included Federally backed home loans, credit and tax mechanisms that encouraged new development, and less restrictive municipal ordinances regarding building codes, environmental laws, and zoning regulations. Throughout the past two centuries land use changes associated with increasing urbanization have had impacts that resonate at local, regional, and even national scales. Landscape changes resulting from urbanization can be mapped and studied over time. Understanding these changes requires a study of the causes of change as related to social, economic, and political influences. Understanding these changes also requires analysis of how urbanization physically spreads across the landscape. The knowledge gained from studying urban land-use change can be helpful when it flows into local, regional, and national decisionmaking that relates to land-use decisions that impact the people, the economy, and the environment. Deriving a correlation between physical change and the explanations of the causes of change can help anticipate and mitigate the impacts of future change. Throughout the past two centuries changes to the Nation's urban areas are inextricably linked to population changes. The Nation's population started growing slowly along the eastern seaboard during the 17th and 18th centuries, accelerated in the second half of the 19th century, and then continued steadily spreading westward throughout the next hundred years. Currently, nearly 80 percent of the U.S. population resides in urban areas. Land area dedicated to urban use continues to expand, although differently than it has in the past. Most newly urbanized areas are much less densely populated and less intensively developed than they were 50 to 100 years ago.

Professional Paper↗

Assessing Metallic Resources in Alaska

In the last two decades federal and state governments have become in creasingly preoccupied with classi fying public lands according to the uses that may be made of them. One outcome of the classifying can be a change in the land's legal status from one in which any use is tolerated to one in which only selected activities are allowed. Since such a change af fects the economic and recreational opportunities of individuals and in stitutions, a variety of interest groups have developed to follow and influ ence the classifying process. Perhaps nowhere has the process been more closely scrutinized or more hotly de bated than in Alaska, where land-use decisions for much of the state's 375 million acres are being made.

Alaska↗

Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: Creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Sustainability Science↗

Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: Past, present, and future climate change in the greater Yellowstone watersheds

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is one of the last remaining large and nearly intact temperate ecosystems on Earth. GYA was originally defined in the 1970s as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, which encompassed the minimum range of the grizzly bear. The boundary now includes about 22 million acres (8.9 million ha) in northwestern Wyoming, south central Montana, and eastern Idaho (Figure ES-1). Two national parks, five national forests, three wildlife refuges, 20 counties, and state and private lands lie within the GYA boundary (Figure ES-1). The Tribal Nations of the Eastern Shoshone, Northern Arapaho, Apsa´alooke/Crow, Northern Cheyenne, Shoshone, and Bannock have reservations in and near the Greater Yellowstone Area, and 27 Tribes are formally recognized to have historical connections to the lands and resources of the region. Natural resources sensitive to climate change connect many of the major economic activities of the GYA, including tourism and recreation, agriculture, and energy development.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Using object-based image analysis to conduct high-resolution conifer extraction at regional spatial scales

The distribution and abundance of pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma, J. occidentalis ) trees (hereinafter, "pinyon-juniper") in sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of the Great Basin in the Western United States has increased substantially since the late 1800s. Distributional expansion and infill of pinyon-juniper into sagebrush ecosystems threatens the ecological function and economic viability of these ecosystems within the Great Basin, and is now a major contemporary challenge facing land and wildlife managers. Particularly, pinyon-juniper encroachment into intact sagebrush ecosystems has been identified as a primary threat facing populations of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereinafter, "sage-grouse"), which is a sagebrush obligate species. Even seemingly innocuous scatterings of isolated pinyon-juniper in an otherwise intact sagebrush landscape can negatively affect survival and reproduction of sage-grouse. Therefore, accurate and high-resolution maps of pinyon-juniper distribution and abundance (indexed by canopy cover) across broad geographic extents would help guide land management decisions that better target areas for pinyon-juniper removal projects (for example, fuel reduction, habitat improvement for sage-grouse, and other sagebrush species) and facilitate science that further quantifies ecological effects of pinyon-juniper encroachment on sage-grouse populations and sagebrush ecosystem processes . Hence, we mapped pinyon-juniper (referred to as conifers for actual mapping) at a 1 × 1-meter (m) high resolution across the entire range of previously mapped sage-grouse habitat in Nevada and northeastern California. We used digital orthophoto quad tiles from National Agriculture Imagery Program (2010, 2013) as base imagery, and then classified conifers using automated feature extraction methodology with the program Feature Analyst ™ . This method relies on machine learning algorithms that extract features from imagery based on their spectral and spatial signatures. We classified conifers in 6,230 tiles and then tested for errors of omission and commission using confusion matrices. Accuracy ranged from 79.1 to 96.8, with an overall accuracy of 84.3 percent across all mapped areas. An estimated accuracy coefficient (kappa) indicated substantial to nearly perfect agreement, which varied across mapped areas. For this mapping process across the entire mapping extent, four sets of products are available at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7348HVC , including (1) a shapefile representing accuracy results linked to mapping subunits; (2) binary rasters representing conifer presence or absence at a 1 × 1 m resolution; (3) a 30 × 30 m resolution raster representing percentages of conifer canopy cover within each cell from 0 to 100; and (4) 1 × 1 m resolution canopy cover classification rasters derived from a 50-m-radius moving window analysis. The latter two products can be reclassified in a geographic information system (GIS) into user-specified bins to meet different objectives, which include approximations for phases of encroachment. These products complement, and in some cases improve upon, existing conifer maps in the Western United States, and will help facilitate sage-grouse habitat management and sagebrush ecosystem restoration.

California, Nevada↗

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contributions to wildlife habitat, management issues, challenges and policy choices--an annotated bibliography

The following bibliography presents brief summaries of documents relevant to Conservation Reserve Program relations to wildlife habitat, habitat management in agriculturally dominated landscapes, and conservation policies potentially affecting wildlife habitats in agricultural ecosystems. Because the literature summaries furnished provide only sweeping overviews, users are urged to obtain and evaluate those papers appearing useful to obtain a more complete understanding of study findings and their implications to conservation in agricultural ecosystems. The bibliography contains references to reports that reach beyond topics that directly relate to the Conservation Reserve Program. Sections addressing grassland management and landowner surveys/opinions, for example, furnish information useful for enhancing development and administration of conservation policies affecting lands beyond those enrolled in conservation programs. Some sections of the bibliography (for example, agricultural conservation policy, economics, soils) are far from inclusive of all relevant material written on the subject. Hopefully, these sections will serve as fundamental introductions to related issues. In a few instances, references may be presented in more than one section of the bibliography. For example, individual papers specifically addressing both non-game and game birds are included in respective sections of the bibliography. Duplication of citations and associated notes has, however, been kept to a minimum.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Chemical quality of surface water in the Allegheny River basin, Pennsylvania and New York

The Allegheny River is the principal source of water to many industries and to communities in the upper Ohio River Valley. The river and its many tributaries pass through 19 counties in northwestern and western Pennsylvania. The population in these counties exceeds 3 million. A major user of the Allegheny River is the city of Pittsburgh, which has a population greater than The Allegheny River is as basic to the economy of the upper Ohio River Valley in western Pennsylvania as are the rich deposits of bituminous coal, gas, and oil that underlie the drainage basin. During the past 5 years many streams that flow into the Allegheny have been low flowing because of droughts affecting much of the eastern United States. Consequently, the concentration of solutes in some streams has been unusually high because of wastes from coal mines and oil wells. These and other water-quality problems in the Allegheny River drainage basin are affecting the economic future of some areas in western Pennsylvania. Because of environmental factors such as climate, geology, and land and water uses, surface-water quality varies considerably throughout the river basin. The natural quality of headwater streams, for example, is affected by saltwater wastes from petroleum production. One of the streams most affected is Kinzua Creek, which had 2,900 parts per million chloride in a sample taken at Westline on September 2, 1959. However, after such streams as the Conewango, Brokenstraw, Tionesta, Oil, and French Creeks merge with the Allegheny River, the dissolved-solids and chloride concentrations are reduced by dilution. Central segments of the main river receive water from the Clarion River, Redbank, Mahoning, and Crooked Creeks after they have crossed the coal fields of west-central Pennsylvania. At times, therefore, these streams carry coal-mine wastes that are acidic. The Kiskiminetas River, which crosses these coal fields, discharged sulfuric acid into the Allegheny at a rate of 299 tons a day during the 1962 water year (October 1, 1961, to September 30, 1962). Mine water affects the quality of the Allegheny River most noticeably in its lower part where large withdrawals are made by the Pittsburgh Water Company at Aspinwall and the Wilkinsburg-Penn Joint Water Authority at Nadine. At these places raw river water is chemically .treated in modern treatment plants to control such objectionable characteristics as acidity and excessive concentrations of iron and manganese. Dissolved-solids content in the river varies along its entire length. In its upper reaches the water of the Allegheny River is a sodium chloride type, and at low flow, the sodium chloride is more than half the dissolved solids. In its lower reaches the water is a calcium sulfate .type, and at low flow the calcium sulfate is more than half the dissolved solids. In middle segments of the river from Franklin to Kittanning, water is more dilute and of a mixed type. Many small and several larger streams in the upper basin--such as the Conewango, Brokenstraw, Kinzua, Tionesta, and French Creeks--support large populations of game-fish. Even in segments of the Clarion River, Mahoning, and Redbank Creeks, which are at times affected by coal-mine wastes, fish are present. Although different species withstand varying amounts of contaminants in water, the continued presence of the fish indicates that the water is relatively pure and suitable for recreation and many other uses.

Water Supply Paper↗

The Grouse & Grazing Project: Effects of cattle grazing on demographic traits of greater sage-grouse

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) were once widespread within sagebrush -grassland ecosystems of western North America, but populations have declined since the mid-1960s. Though sage-grouse were not listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), when examined in 2015, they remain a species of interest and concern. Roughly half of the sage-grouse’s remaining habitat is on federal land, most of it managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS). Livestock grazing is the most extensive land use within sage-grouse habitat and the effects of livestock grazing on sage-grouse are often debated. The extensive decade-long research project summarized in this report was initiated to provide rigorous experimental research to inform the debate regarding the relationship between livestock grazing and sage-grouse. In 2012, the Idaho Grouse & Grazing Project was started with several partners including the University of Idaho, BLM, Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG), and other partners to evaluate the effects of cattle grazing on sage-grouse vital rates. Many additional supporters have provided resources to this research effort including the Public Lands Council, Idaho Cattle Association, Idaho Governor’s Office of Species Conservation, Western Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, USFS, and numerous grazing associations and ranchers in Idaho. This 10-year research project was a scientifically rigorous and replicated experiment, occurring across five study sites in Idaho. This document is intended to provide a summary of the findings of this unprecedented study. Annual reports are available on the project’s website: https://idahogrousegrazing.org and scientific papers are being prepared and submitted to journals. The project focused on the influence of spring cattle grazing on sage-grouse vital rates across five study sites in Idaho including 21 BLM grazing pastures. From 2014-2023, we captured 1,343 grouse, documented the fate of 1,285 nests, and tracked 399 broods. Vegetation was characterized at 4,777 plots and grazing utilization levels were recorded at >30,000 locations. Because insects are an important food source for sage-grouse hens and their chicks, insect biomass and diversity were also examined in this study. We collected arthropods in 12,151 pitfall samples and 6,217 sweep-net samples across 786 plots within our five study sites. At each study site, three or four grazing treatments were implemented after two years of pre-treatment field investigations. These controlled cattle grazing treatments included spring-grazing in even years, spring-grazing in odd years, spring-and-fall grazing in alternating years, and a no grazing (or rested) control. Once grazing treatments were implemented at a study site, we measured sage-grouse demographic traits for 4-8 years post-treatment. Stocking rate (grazing intensity) was assessed across pastures each year and was influenced by vegetation communities, topography, and water sources. Grazed pastures exhibited lower grass cover and height compared to the no grazing pastures, and the extent of this difference varied based on annual precipitation levels. Rested pastures maintained higher grass cover and grass height, but the differences in habitat structure did not consistently translate to differences in sage-grouse demographic traits. Apparent nesting success varied annually and by site, ranging from 24% to 44% over the study period. Like some other studies, results from this research show that successful (i.e., hatched) sage-grouse nests have taller grass heights than failed nests. The average grass height surrounding successful nests in grazed pastures was shorter than that surrounding successful nests in non-grazed (i.e., rested) pastures. It is well documented that grazing reduces grass height, and these observations have led to widely held assumptions that livestock grazing reduces grass height which negatively affects sage-grouse nesting habitat. At the pasture scale, this study has found that sage-grouse nesting success is no greater in pastures that were rested for 4-8 years than those currently or recently grazed. This study gives no indication that removing cattle from pastures affected nesting success. We found some evidence that nest density varied among the grazing treatments, but we did not see compelling evidence of increases in density of nesting hens following cessation of grazing in the no grazing treatments. Brood survival varied by site and year but showed no strong effect of grazing treatment. Climatic conditions, particularly drought in 2021, had a greater effect on brood survival than grazing metrics. We also found no differences in hen survival among the grazing treatments. Results of this study suggest that hens nesting in spring and fall grazed pastures had similar or even slightly higher brood survival than hens in the rested pastures or the spring grazed pastures. Arthropod biomass and species diversity varied among our study sites and the differences between grazed and rested pastures also varied among study sites. Average biomass and diversity of arthropods was higher in the spring grazed pastures on two of three sites examined but higher in the rested pastures on the other site examined. Some taxa of arthropods were more abundant in grazed pastures while other taxa were more abundant in rested pastures. For example, Carabidae (Ground Beetles) and Formicidae (Ants) had higher biomass in grazed pastures, while Tenebrionidae (Darkling Beetles) and Acrididae (Grasshoppers) had higher biomass in non-grazed pastures. Results indicate that grazing effects on arthropod biomass and arthropod diversity are study site-dependent, suggesting a need to better quantify the most important prey taxa for sage-grouse chicks and to better control for other factors that influence arthropod abundance. Based on results of this research, livestock grazing, when properly managed, does not appear to negatively impact sage-grouse nest survival or brood success. This study provides critical insights for land managers balancing livestock production with sage-grouse conservation, supporting adaptive grazing strategies that maintain both economic and ecological objectives.

Idaho↗

Temporal variability in irrigated land and climate influences on salinity loading across the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1986-2017

Freshwater salinization is a growing global concern impacting human and ecosystem needs with impacts to water availability for human and ecological uses. In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), dissolved solids in streams compound ongoing water supply challenges to further limit water availability and cause economic damages. Much effort has been dedicated to understanding dissolved solid sources, transport, and management in the region, yet temporal variability in loading from key sources such as irrigated lands and the influence of climate on dissolved solids loading remains unknown. Quantifying the contributions and temporal variability of dissolved solids loads from irrigated lands may benefit salinity management efforts. This study applies a time-varying (dynamic) modeling approach to predict annual dissolved solids loads across the UCRB from 1986 through 2017. Between 66% and 82% of the total accumulated dissolved solids load in the basin is from groundwater (storage and baseflow). Our findings link climate, irrigation, and groundwater, and confirm large storage contributions that have declined slightly with time. Dissolved solids loads increase during wet periods and decrease during dry periods, although the relative contributions of different sources vary little with time. Irrigation enhances loading efficiency relative to unirrigated areas through runoff and groundwater, and can locally be a major source of dissolved solids where irrigation occurs. Results indicate that loads from irrigated areas increase when irrigated area and/or water available for runoff increase. Increased regional aridification over the study period may have contributed to decreasing stream salinity through both quicker surface runoff and lagged groundwater storage processes. Study results may be relevant to salinity management in arid environments where water availability is limited and where irrigation influences salinity loading to streams.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

Coastal development

As a focal point of global urbanization, the coastal zone faces multiple pressures from human activities, land-sea interactions and natural disasters. Over the past five years, population, communities and infrastructure in coastal zones have consistently grown, alongside gradual economic recovery. Coastal pollution has become more complex owing to climate change and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, necessitating enhanced monitoring and control measures. Public participation has been diversified but still faces difficulties in awareness-raising, policy strengthening, equity and comprehensiveness. For the coastal zone, integrated management will continue to be needed in order to achieve a balance between economic performance and ecological environment. Climate change will be a key factor to consider in every aspect of coastal zone development. To build inclusive, safe and disaster-resilient communities while reducing negative environmental impacts and achieving a sustainable coastal economy, greater emphasis must be placed on green-grey infrastructure, ecosystem-based approaches, institutional integration and sociocultural aspects. In addition, urgent breakthroughs are needed in areas such as data collection, technology synthesis, integrated land-sea management, transboundary cooperation and policies and technical innovations related to natural and nature-based features and nature-based solutions.

Report↗